The article presents a method for forecasting trends in changes in mass consciousness in terms of life attitudes, i.e. those values according to which people try to build their lives. Modern applied sociology successfully uses the forecast of electoral and consumer behaviour of citizens. The time lag of forecast reliability: for electoral behaviour - 4-5 weeks, for consumer behaviour - up to a year. Forecasting for 10-20 years is practiced mainly in demography. It is more difficult to forecast changes in mass consciousness based on value attitudes of citizens. If we assume that the development of the state is evolutionary, then the combination of heuristic and mathematical methods allows us to forecast trends in the attitudes of the population aged 40 and older, as basic for the economic and political functioning of the state. In methodological terms, the article proposes a procedure for forecasting trends only, without claiming high accuracy of numerical indicators, with mandatory consideration of weak variability of basic numerical indicators measured as of 2024. To forecast trends, there were used data from an all-Russian representative sociological study, accumulated in integral indices, as well as in verbal constructs using factor analysis. The combination of these methods allowed to make a generally stable 20-year forecast of trends in changes in the life attitudes of Russians. As a tool for a detailed forecast indices as integrated indicators of the intensity and direction of a trend were used, and for a generalised forecast - verbal constructs formed on the basis of factor analysis. The choice of the subject of the forecast is based on the hypothesis that the "catalyst" of life attitudes are three components of life activity: the life trajectory chosen by the individual, including the preferred types of life activity; the identification of the individual with reference groups as a contact environment, a mechanism of value communication and self-realisation; the choice of forms of social behaviour by the individual based on the basic moral principles of people's life activity. These three aspects of the population's life activity are not only socially (phylogenetically), but also to a large extent biologically (ontogenetically) determined, therefore they are highly stable, that allows us to talk about the stability of the medium-term forecast of trends in the interval of up to 20 years. Thus, the article proposes the tested in an applied sociological study combined method of medium-term forecast of social groups' attitudes in a situation where repeated studies are not conducted to build a dynamic series of empirical indicators. The forecast presented in the article operates with indicators that are important for consideration in the practice of medium-term planning of the state’s social policy.
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Nov 15, 2024
Alban Reli + 1
Open Access
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