Electoral Barriers Research Articles

“Voting with feet”: Russian electoral sociology on the problem of voter turnout (1989–1996)

The article is devoted to the problem of turnout in elections in the USSR and Russia in the period from 1989 to 1996 in the assessment of Russian sociologists and social scientists. The theory of representative democracy in its neoliberal version narrows the acts of legitimation to the voting procedure. The experience of implementing these principles in the USSR and the Russian Federation at the end of the 20th century is quite relevant for the development of contemporary political sociology. The goal is a retrospective (historical) study of the explanatory schemes offered by Russian electoral sociologists and representatives of related disciplines on the decline in voter turnout in the 1989–1996 elections. Objectives: 1) description of specific situations, 2) analysis of the positions and arguments put forward, 3) generalization of the hypotheses and concepts proposed. Traditional methods for works of this nature were used (analysis, synthesis, heuristic, descriptive). The decline in the number of voters was constant. As in the rest of the world, it primarily affected those structures that were not perceived as significant. This led to a gradual lowering of the electoral barrier, even to its abolition. The statement about “voting with one’s feet” as a result of disappointment in the socio-economic transformations of the 1990s became a common place in the sociologists’ reasoning. The active part of the electorate, affiliated with certain political forces and organizations, reacted sensitively to mass media reports of falsifications. The general decline in voter turnout was perfectly exploited by political technologists for the benefit of their clients. The first steps of the Russian electoral sociology were not able to improve the situation in the socio-political orientation of the electorate.

In Search of Republican Unity

The importance of the Dutch Revolution of the late eighteenth century for political developments in the Northern Netherlands is still contested. Most historians view the period as the starting point of a number of democratic institutions, including elections. Others have pointed out, however, that the nineteenth century shows a remarkable amount of continuity in political practice with the early modern period, and have therefore questioned the impact of political change. Scholarship on the political system during the revolutionary era has paid little attention to the exclusion of a specific group from electoral politics: political opponents of the revolution. The debates on the question of whether Orangists should have access to the ballot were intense in the Northern Netherlands, where a political struggle between Patriots and Orangists had been taking place since the 1780s. Through a consideration of why the Dutch revolutionaries placed such electoral barriers against their political adversaries (mainly Orangists, but for a brief period also moderates and federalists), this essay argues that this period ought to be viewed with its particular revolutionary character in mind, rather than considering it simply as a period that relied on old practices or one that gave birth to new ones.

The Consequences of the Transformation of the Electoral System Regarding Recruitment to the Political-Power Elites of Ukraine

The article analyzes the transformation of the electoral system of Ukraine during the years of state independence. The influence of electoral systems on the recruitment of the political elite is considered. The evolution of the electoral system underwent significant legislative changes almost for every parliamentary election, partly local elections. The electoral system was tested in the electoral process in the form of majoritarian, proportional and mixed. During election campaigns, the structuring mechanism in Ukraine should create a relationship between electoral preferences and the party structure of the parliament. It was found that the change in the electoral system transforms the mechanisms of recruitment to the political-power elites. As a result of the local elections on October 25, 2020, the candidates were mostly deputies who received a mandate from the party, while not even overcoming the electoral quota. The electoral system guaranteed the seats of deputies to the candidates who were in the first positions in the all-party lists, provided that their party passed the electoral barrier. The new administrative-territorial division in Ukraine reduced the number of administrative units and the number of local deputies. It was analyzed that a proportional electoral system with open regional lists would be optimal for Ukraine at the moment. The President of Ukraine V. Zelenskyi proposed a draft law on reducing the number of parliamentarians to three hundred, which remained a decision without its practical implementation. The decrease in the number of people's deputies in the Ukrainian parliament requires further research. The conclusion is substantiated that it is necessary to raise the level of the electoral barrier, to elect political parties on ideological grounds, and to structure the chambers of the Ukrainian parliament into a bicameral parliament. As a result, this would help increase the structure of the parliament and normalize the ways of entering the political elite in Ukraine.

Causes of the instability of modern presidential systems in Latin America

The democratization of Latin American countries in the last two decades of the XX century led to the growth of political pluralism. Dozens of new political organizations, that were created in that period of time, began to claim the electoral base of traditional political forces, which had been one of the foundations of presidential rule in the previous historical period. In these circumstances, one of the characteristics of the Latin American presidential systems was clearly manifested, that is the excessive interdependence of the head of state and congress compared to the classic presidential system. Based on the data from the national electoral commissions of the Latin America countries from 1995 to 2022, the author comes to a conclusion that an increase in the level of fragmentation of party systems leads to a decrease of parliamentary support for the president. This situation, coupled with the lack of workable mechanisms for resolution of political crisis, which is also a typical characteristic of the political tradition of the Latin America, creates conditions for aggravating conflicts between the executive and legislative. Such electoral reforms as the transition from a proportional to a mixed electoral system, the introduction of general elections, and the abolition of the electoral barrier, can serve to reduce the likelihood of institutional crises.

COMPARISON OF RESULTS OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2012-2019 IN UKRAINE

The results of 2012, 2014, 2019 Ukrainian parliamentary elections which were conducted under the same parallel electoral system, are analyzed. The composition of the Verkhovna Rada of the 7th, 8th and 9th convocation by gender is compared, the possibility of participating in electoral races and being elected by both men and women is analyzed. The number of women and men who were selected by the proportional and majoritarian component of the electoral system is compared. The party composition of each convocation is examined. According to the 2012 elections, 450 people's deputies were elected, while only 423 people were elected during 2014 and 2019 elections. This is due to Russian aggression in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, which makes it impossible to hold elections in majoritarian constituencies of the indicated regions. With regard to the gender composition of the Parliament, the smallest number of women were represented in the 7th convocation of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, while the largest number was represented in the 9th convocation. This tendency is explained by raising public awareness and greater involvement of women in politics every year, because even with the constancy of the electoral system, the number of women in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has doubled. The majoritarian component of the parallel electoral system remains inaccessible to women, because twice as many women deputies get their seats by proportional component. The political composition of the Ukrainian Parliament changes during each election campaign. Only one political party has been able to overcome the 5 percent electoral barrier in all three of its last campaigns - the All-Ukrainian Motherland Association. Another party has been able to go to parliament twice - the Petro Poroshenko bloc / European Solidarity. All other 11 parties are represented in parliament with only one cadence. A characteristic feature of all three campaigns is the support for a large part of the population of the presidential parties, both in a proportional system and in a majority one, which testifies, however, to the significant influence of the political preferences of the population rather than the influence of the electoral system. The fact that parliament is renewed by more than two-thirds during each of the three election campaigns refutes the argument that MPs or parties do not change and that a new electoral system is required to update parliament.

NEW TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PARTY SYSTEM OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC

The article examines the development of the political process in the Czech Republic following the results of the last regular elections to the Chamber of Deputies of the Parliament, which took place on October 21-22, 2017 under the proportional electoral system. The results of the elections revealed a number of new trends in the development of the parties and the party system of the Czech Republic, which at the same time have many similarities with the ideas of populists and Euro skeptics spread in the CEE region.
 The analysis of the specific “differentiated electoral barrier” and the Czech electoral legislation is made. The path to victory in the elections of the ANO and the ODS parties, the new in the Czech politics third party-winner – the Pirate party, members of which advocated the maximum protection of individual freedoms and the uncontrolled Internet. It is noted that the traditional and leading parties of the Czech Republic – KDU-CSL, TOP 9, KSCM, CSSD did not achieve the expected success in the Parliament elections.
 The regularities that emerged during the elections to the Chamber of Deputies were revealed: a steady demand of voters for new leaders, new political forces, the weakening of the positions and authority of political parties that have occupied leading positions for a long period, the change in the current political agenda. Confirmed pan-European trends: the growth of populist sentiment and a significant increase in skepticism towards the leaders of the European Union, which are manifested in many CEE countries.

Некоторые недостатки заградительного барьера в избирательной системе по партийным спискам

Некоторые недостатки заградительного барьера в избирательной системе по партийным спискам

Propuesta de reforma del sistema electoral de Canarias

El actual sistema electoral canario produce discordancias entre votos recibidos y escaños asignados a los partidos debido (1) a la doble barrera electoral, (2) a que se usan las islas como circunscripciones donde se realizan repartos independientes de escaños a los partidos, (3) y a que el tamaño de estas circunscripciones no es proporcional a sus poblaciones. Ante estas discordancias proponemos como alternativa la técnica del reparto biproporcional, la cual considera tanto los votos totales que reciben los partidos así como un reparto de escaños entre circunscripciones (islas) más ajustado a la población actualizada según el último padrón de cada una de ellas.

The Political and Economic Results of March 2013

In March, Russia was faced with the unsavory prospect of a considerable loss of funds kept by Russian enterprises and individuals in Cyprus, traditionally one of the most attractive jurisdictions for Russian businesses A significant portion of those funds was frozen or seized by the Cypriot authorities in an attempt to mitigate the dire financial problems besetting their own country. It turned out that, in fact, Russia had no means of responding to that challenge – the credit previously extended by Russia to Cyprus had not resolved any of the problems that were plaguing that country, and furthermore, Russia did not have any prerogatives to control the domestic economic policy of an EU member country, and was clearly reluctant to directly negotiate with the EU in order to protect Russian deposits in Cypriot banks. Elvira Nabiullina was nominated as head of the RF Central Bank. Nabiullina’s nomination was seen as a compromise in the intra-government struggle between the supporters and opponents of a tight monetary policy. The State Duma adopted the first reading of a draft law amending Russia’s parliamentary election procedures. Introduced for consideration by the State Duma by Vladimir Putin, the draft law is designed to restore single-mandate electoral districts and to allocate 50% of State Duma seats to their representatives. It also reduces the existing election threshold to 5%. However, the Draft Law erects a new electoral barrier in the form of a ban on persons convicted of serious crimes standing for parliament. It should be noted that, among other things, the ‘serious crime’ category comprises numerous types of economic offences carrying sentences that can easily be used as a means of political persecution.

Party system fragmentation in Morocco

This paper examines the fragmentation in the party system of Morocco. First, we describe the party system, taking into account the origin and nature of the Moroccan multi-party scene, the transformations in the party system that have taken place since Independence, and its present divisions. Second, we examine the influence of the electoral system on fragmentation, considering such elements as seat allocation in constituencies, the electoral formula, and the electoral barrier. Third, we explore some characteristics of fragmentation, using as indicators Rae's fractionalisation index, the effective number of parties, and the parties in government coalitions. In this regard, we analyse the differences between electoral and legislative fragmentations, the evolution of fragmentation – by comparing elections in which different procedures were followed – and the party system that has emerged as a result of these processes. Lastly, we outline the main consequences that fragmentation has had on the Moroccan political arena.

National level electoral thresholds: Problems and solutions

Identifying a valid indicator of the electoral barrier is an important concern in many research projects, and Lijphart's Effective Threshold is undoubtedly one of the more popular choices [Lijphart, A., 1994. Electoral Systems and Party Systems – a Study of Twenty-Seven Democracies, 1945–1990. Oxford University Press, Oxford.]. Taagepera has demonstrated that it does not measure what it claims to, however, and has instead suggested the Nationwide Threshold of Representation [Taagepera, R., 2002. Nationwide threshold of representation. Electoral Studies 21, 383–401.]. The problem is that the latter assigns lower thresholds to plurality–majoritarian systems than most PR systems, thus contradicting other standard indicators of the electoral barrier. The arguments and methods involved in national level threshold estimation are therefore subjected to close examination and two main conclusions are drawn. Firstly, the method for centre estimation (using the geometric mean) suggested by Taagepera contains methodological errors that undermine its validity. Secondly, predicting the probability of winning ‘a seat’ with a given vote share is not feasible at the national level as is the case at the district level. Moreover, it is inadequate to capture the electoral barrier of concern to most research projects. To capture this barrier, we must now compare what is required to obtain proportional representation under different rules.

Political Parties in Transition?

Australia's political cartel? The major parties and the party system in an era of globalisation Ian Marsh Party structures and processes Dean Jaensch Party organisations and resources: Membership, funding and staffing Gary Johns Cartel parties and election campaigning in Australia Ian Ward The cartel parties model and electoral barriers Rodney Smith and John O'Mahony Ideological convergence between the major parties and the representation gap in Australian politics Ian Marsh The Nationals and the Democrats: Cracks and chips in the cartel? John Warhurst The Australian Greens: Challengers to the cartel Ariadne Vromen and Nick Turnbull The Australian party system, Pauline Hanson's One Nation and the party cartelisation thesis Murray Goot New Zealand's multi-party system: Consolidation of the cartel model under proportional representation Raymond Miller

Stabilizing party systems and excluding segments of society?: The effects of formation costs on new party foundation in Latin America

The costs of party formation potentially alter representation and change electoral dynamics before allocation rules come into play. Furthermore, the interaction of formation rules and demographic conditions occasionally produces in new democracies unintended effects on representation that are quite distinct from the effects of other electoral barriers. Currently, however, the literature does not systematically consider the role that institutions play in party formation and party survival in new democracies. This article considers the theoretical importance of formation rules on representation in the context of party-system development. The principal hypothesis proposed is that, while not a sufficient condition for the emergence of separate ethnic political parties, elimination of spatial registration rules, which mandate registration that exceeds the group’s geographic distribution, is a necessary condition. Comparative evidence from Bolivia, Guatemala, Mexico, Peru, and a detailed case study of Ecuador suggests that pre-election spatial registration rules do, indeed, contribute to the general explanation of a lack of indigenous parties in countries with large mobilized indigenous groups. Two supplementary hypotheses and anecdotal evidence from the above countries address the effects of non-spatial pre-election requirements and post-election requirements.

Black Incumbents, White Districts

This article explores the controversial 1996 success of three African American incumbents (Sanford Bishop and Cynthia McKinney of Georgia and Corrine Brown of Florida) who lost their majority-Black southern congressional districts to Supreme Court decisions. Using aggregate electoral data and Gary King's solution to the ecological inference problem, we gauge (a) the extent of bias against Black candidates, (b) the extent of backlash against Black voters, and (c) the extent to which incumbency explains away the Georgia victories. The findings are compatible with neither a full attack on racial redistricting nor a defense of it. Southern Whites do not exhibit either consistent bias against Black candidates or backlash against Black voters, but racial polarization is nonetheless evident and dispersed in a geographically systematic manner. Barriers against Black representation are still strong, but they are not the electoral barriers that civil rights activists assume when they embrace majority-minority districts.

Theoretical comparisons of electoral systems

Elements of an economic theory of political institutions are introduced. A variety of electoral systems are reviewed. Cox's threshold is shown to measure incentives for diversity and specialization of candidates' positions, when the number of serious candidates is given. Duverger's law and its generalizations are discussed, to predict the number of serious candidates. Duverger's law is interpreted as a statement about electoral barriers to entry, and this idea is linked to the question of the effectiveness of democratic competition as a deterrent to political corruption. The impact of post-electoral bargaining on party structure in presidential and parliamentary systems is discussed.

The Opportunity Structure for Women's Candidacies and Electability in Britain and the United States

The influence of the social and political environment on candidacies and electability is an important element of political recruitment structures. We investigate several contextual factors that may affect the likelihood of women becoming candidates to, and members of, the British House of Commons and the U.S. House of Representatives. Using data from the 1992 British General Election and the 1992 U.S. congressional elections, we find both similarities and differences in the contexts promoting women's candidacies in the two countries. Overall, there is not an especially distinctive pattern in either country to women's candidacies or electability. Women have moved beyond "sacrificial lamb" status, but incumbency remains the most formi dable electoral barrier in both countries.