Articles published on EKC Hypothesis
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- Research Article
- 10.1002/sd.70848
- Feb 26, 2026
- Sustainable Development
- Oguzhan Bozatli + 3 more
ABSTRACT This paper presents a comprehensive policy framework for achieving Sustainable Development Goals 7 and 9 and evaluates the EU's carbon neutrality target for 2050. In this context, the effects of renewable energy consumption, energy R&D budget, energy taxes, and economic growth on the carbon footprint are examined for nine selected EU countries with available data, covering the period 1995–2022. The estimation results, which also examine the validity of the EKC hypothesis, are as follows: The EKC hypothesis is valid in EU countries. This implies that economic growth has a carbon footprint‐reducing effect beyond a specific point. Energy tax and renewable energy policies followed in EU countries have a carbon footprint‐reducing effect. The R&D budget allocated to energy by EU countries is not an effective policy tool for managing carbon footprint. In general, it is recommended that policymakers allocate more of their budget to energy R&D and use an energy tax effectively to achieve sustainable environmental quality and promote renewable energy sources.
- Research Article
- 10.1002/gj.70233
- Feb 22, 2026
- Geological Journal
- Serhat Çamkaya + 4 more
ABSTRACT Following a high economic growth path, the group of G7 economies is found to be utilising more and more material, causing a material footprint (MF), which in turn contributes to pollution. The MF can be derived from various factors, including fossil fuels, building materials, and biomass. But the G7 countries heavily rely on carbon‐based fuels, which are considered the key source of the MF. The energy security issues further call for control of the situation by lowering the MF and improving the quality of the environment by enhancing the use of renewable sources of energy. The current study intends to add to the literature by exploring the linkages between economic growth and MF, keeping in view the energy security issues in G7 economies over the period from 1985 to 2018. The study crafts a model of environmental pollution by evaluating the effects of economic growth, the energy security risk (ESR), and renewable energy consumption (REC) on the fossil material footprint (FMF). The inferences are drawn using the panel quantile regression (PQR) technique. The outcomes showed that FMF significantly and positively correlated with the ESR, but in the last two upper quantiles, the impact of ESR becomes significantly negative. Likewise, the utilisation of renewable energy is found to control FMF across all quartiles. Moreover, the association between economic growth and FMF proves the invalidity of the EKC hypothesis. Keeping in view the outcomes generated, the study recommended certain policy implications which could help G7 countries to secure SDG 07, SDG 12 and SDG 13 (climate action) directly, whereas SDG 08 and SDG 09 are indirectly.
- Research Article
- 10.3846/jeelm.2026.25785
- Feb 12, 2026
- Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management
- Jianxiong Wang + 3 more
The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of financial development, trade openness, renewable energy, and nonrenewable energy consumption on CO2 emissions in India by analyzing the quarterly data from 1980 to 2020. Quantile ARDL and Wavelet Coherence methods are employed to examine the nexus. In the long and short run, nonrenewable energy consumption, financial development, and trade openness have a positive impact on CO2 emissions. When emissions are already high, it suggests that financial development may also lead to increased CO2 emissions. Moreover, Renewable energy consumption has a negative impact on CO2 emissions irrespective of the emission level that whether it is high or low in the nations, which shows that if financial enhancement increases, carbon emissions decrease. Finally, we test the EKC hypothesis, and the QARDL findings support the EKC in India. Additionally, the wavelet coherence study found a causal relationship between the CO2 emissions and independent variables, and the findings under the Wald test reject the parameter constancy for all variables. To create effective policies for environmental deterioration, the empirical findings of the current analysis can be used as guidelines for policy implications.
- Research Article
- 10.1088/2515-7620/ae3a4a
- Feb 1, 2026
- Environmental Research Communications
- Priti Agarwal + 1 more
Abstract The empirical evidence on the EKC hypothesis has been rather mixed, and the widely-used GDP per capita is deemed an inadequate indicator of well-being. Invoking the capital theory approach to sustainable development, namely of non-declining capital stock or wealth, we test the EKC hypothesis for carbon emissions in India for the period 1972 to 2013 through the change in comprehensive wealth (i.e. comprehensive investment) and its components of anthropogenic capital and natural capital. Employing the ARDL cointegration technique, we find N-shaped EKCs with comprehensive investment, and produced capital investment, indicating rising carbon emissions in India’s current growth path. Only the increase in renewable energy resources has helped reduce carbon emissions, while the changing economic structure and foreign direct investment have had adverse environmental impact. The systematic disinvestment in natural capital through the decades reflects declining carbon sequestration capacity, and points to the need for concerted efforts to preserve natural capital like forests for essential sequestration services.
- Research Article
- 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.128441
- Feb 1, 2026
- Journal of environmental management
- Hui Min Li + 2 more
Educational tourism and environmental sustainability in China: A blessing or a burden?
- Research Article
- 10.3390/su18031166
- Jan 23, 2026
- Sustainability
- Hasan Can Yildirim + 3 more
The quest for environmental sustainability continues to gain prominence, but the environmental goods trade-environmental sustainability nexus has not received adequate research attention. Therefore, this study evaluates the impact of environmental goods trade on environmental performance. Environmental goods (EGs) are defined as products designed to support environmental protection and climate-change mitigation and are identified using the IMF environmental goods classification based on the WTO–OECD list, ensuring cross-country comparability. Using second-generation panel time series methods and the Augmented Anderson–Hsiao (AAH) estimation technique with a sample of 47 Asian countries over the period 1994–2021, this study provides interesting findings and insightful policy implications. First, the findings confirm the EKC Hypothesis in all the models. Second, the results support the pollution halo hypothesis because trade openness has a significant negative impact on the ecological footprint in all the models. This implies that trade openness reduces environmental degradation. Also, the result revealed that an increase in ecological goods reduces ecological footprint in production, consumption, and distribution, as well as imports and exports, based on ecological footprint in Asia. Therefore, we conclude that environmental goods trade enhances environmental sustainability.
- Research Article
5
- 10.1016/j.habitatint.2025.103653
- Jan 1, 2026
- Habitat International
- Chaoqing Chai + 11 more
Assessing the impact of farmland fragmentation on green productivity in Yellow River Basin: A “quantity-spatial” scale effects perspective and EKC hypothesis test
- Research Article
- 10.26710/sbsee.v7i4.3609
- Dec 31, 2025
- Sustainable Business and Society in Emerging Economies
- Faisal Ijaz + 2 more
Purpose: This research explores how financial investments focused on environmental projects that can help lessen harm to the environment and promote the environmental sustainability. In this, Environmental Kuznets Curve concept is also employed to assess whether the EKC idea holds true when environmentally conscious financial practices are taken into account. Additionally, the study investigates if using green finance, changes the EKC's point where it shifts direction. In doing so, reshapes the connection between economic expansion and the condition of the natural world. Methodology: The dynamic panel that has 90 countries between 2008 and 2019 is used to employ the two-step System GMM estimator aimed at overcoming endogeneity, heterogeneity, and persistence in emissions. The EKC framework is expanded to include the green finance, and there are a set of control variables, including the industrial share, foreign direct investment, urbanization, regulatory quality, and a dummy variable of the status of the development. Findings: The results shows that green finance reduce the CO2 emissions, which proves the vulnerability of its importance as a decarbonization policy instrument. The negative coefficient and statistical significance demonstrate that the investment in the channeling capital towards sustainable projects is an effective measure to curb environmental degradation. The rise of Green finance undermine the EKC hypothesis. Since green finance provides the funds toward sustainable green projects like renewable energy, green technology and green investment, the EKC does not hold. Implications: The research incorporates green finance into the EKC framework and thus indicates its efficacy variability in the development stages. The results emphasize the significance of designing green finance policies that support renewable energy adoption and environmentally sustainable. Policymakers should encourage the effective green financial instruments. Strong and credible green finance structures can support low carbon transitions in both developed and developing economies.
- Research Article
- 10.32479/ijeep.21812
- Dec 26, 2025
- International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
- Lina Absharina Fildzah + 5 more
This study analyses the relationship between trade openness, the manufacturing industry, financial development, and fiscal policy on CO2 emissions using the System-GMM approach in 119 countries from 2008 to 2023, grouped by income level. The results demonstrate a nonlinear relationship, consistent with the EKC hypothesis, characterized by variations in the shape of the curve. Trade openness is significant in low-income countries, characterized by an inverted N-curve pattern, whereas manufacturing and financial development influence high-income groups, exhibiting an N-curve pattern. Fiscal policy is substantial in the upper-middle group, characterized by an inverted N-curve, and forms a U-curve in the combined group of all countries. The interaction between variables reveals differences: Financial development, combined with trade openness, reduces emissions in the overall group, whereas manufacturing actually increases emissions in the low-income group. Effective fiscal policy, on the other hand, reduces emissions in the lower-middle and combined groups. These findings underscore the importance of considering income context and implementing integrated policies to reduce emissions.
- Research Article
- 10.3390/su18010112
- Dec 22, 2025
- Sustainability
- Shushu Li + 2 more
Utilizing dynamic panel data from 29 Chinese regions (2012–2022) and a system GMM approach, this study investigates the nexus between industrial structure, economic development, and rural environmental quality. The findings indicate a U-shaped relationship for agriculture and real GDP per capita (supporting the EKC hypothesis), but an inverted U-shaped relationship for the secondary and tertiary industries. Additionally, a faster regional economic growth rate is significantly associated with better environmental quality, implying that economic growth has facilitated rural environmental improvement.
- Research Article
4
- 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101174
- Dec 1, 2025
- Sustainable Futures
- Muhammad Waqas Khalid + 3 more
Revisiting the EKC hypothesis in high-income EU countries: The role of technological innovation, green energy, and transport energy in shaping ecological footprints
- Research Article
- 10.1007/s43621-025-01463-8
- Nov 4, 2025
- Discover Sustainability
- Muhammad Asim Imam + 2 more
Abstract The present study thoroughly examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), the rule of law, and environmental quality. This research uses a threshold method covering 123-panel countries from 2000 to 2019. The current study is distinctive given that it employs a new methodology and examines the nonlinear relationship between environmental quality and FDI inflows and the moderating factors that influence this relationship. An inverted U-shaped curve is identified, and the EKC hypothesis is verified through the conducted analysis. Current results imply that even though FDI accompanies higher levels of 2, its effect can become beneficial based on the institution’s quality. The existing study contributes to previous research because it provides new insights into the ability of FDI to ensure environmental sustainability. Current findings indicate a need for strong legal institutions to make FDI environmentally friendly and facilitate global agendas to achieve carbon neutrality.
- Research Article
- 10.69889/4w3vgt97
- Nov 4, 2025
- Economic Sciences
- Ashish Narayan Jha, Dr Rakesh Kumar Srivastava
This study examines the complex relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and four key macroeconomic variables (economic growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), renewable energy consumption, and trade openness) in the Indian context over the period 2000 to 2021. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the analysis uncovers a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The analysis revealed a U-shaped link between GDP and emissions, indicating that while emissions tend to fall at lower income levels, they rise again once a certain income threshold is crossed thereby challenging the conventional EKC hypothesis. While FDI was found to have no notable impact on emissions, increased consumption of renewable energy significantly reduced emissions in both the short and long term, emphasizing its environmental value. Conversely, greater trade openness was linked with higher emissions over time, suggesting that increased integration with global markets may come at an environmental cost. These insights point to the importance of pursuing clean energy strategies and sustainable trade practices as India continues to grow economically.
- Research Article
- 10.25259/jaes_18_2_549
- Oct 16, 2025
- Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences
- Muhammad Tahir + 1 more
This study aims to investigate the impact of electric power consumption, trade openness, urbanization, and income per capita on environmental degradation. The paper focuses on the Indian economy and employs “Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Modeling Approach (ARDL)” and utilizes data from 1991 to 2023. Findings confirm the EKC hypothesis between income and CO2 for the Indian economy where CO2 initially rise with the increase income level, but eventually higher economic growth enhanced environmental outcomes. Similarly, our results show that urbanization has improved the environment while higher electric power consumption has degraded the environment. However, evaluations on the impact of trade openness show that it has an insignificant impact on the environment. The results have implications India that could be utilized for effective policy making by the government authorities of India to address environmental challenges.
- Research Article
- 10.32479/ijeep.21303
- Oct 12, 2025
- International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
- Akindele John Ogunsola + 1 more
This article tests the EKC hypothesis for South Africa from 1990 to 2023 using ecological footprint and biodiversity loss. The paper applies ARDL-ECM, threshold, and quantile regression to establish how green innovation and macroeconomic variables affect environmental sustainability. ARDL results confirm the EKC hypothesis, showing that economic growth initially declines but later improves the environment sustainability. Threshold regression establishes that this only holds when green innovation exceeds a specific threshold. Quantile regression finds that green innovation moderates the environmental effect of exchange rate and trade openness but not GDP, industrial development, or FDI. The paper stresses that environmental improvement is dependent on the size and direction of green innovation. The work calls for coordination between technological progress and macroeconomic policy and suggests investment in green technology, green trade reforms, and directional innovation systems. The study contributes conceptually and methodologically to EKC literature with policy relevance to South Africa.
- Research Article
- 10.32479/ijeep.20547
- Oct 12, 2025
- International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
- Thong Chien Ling + 2 more
Rising CO2 emissions, a major driver of climate change, demand urgent measures to reduce fossil fuel dependence, adopt clean technologies, and promote sustainable development. This study examines the relationship between green productivity and CO2 emissions intensity among CPTPP nations from 2001 to 2021 using panel data and econometric models, including panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) tests, panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square analysis (FMOLS), and a panel threshold model. The results reveal a U-shaped relationship, aligning with the Jevons Paradox but diverging from the conventional EKC hypothesis. Specifically, green productivity improvements initially result in higher emissions, but they lead to environmental benefits beyond a certain threshold of technology use. These findings highlight the critical need to balance economic growth with environmental protection through enhanced green productivity. The study also underscores that the effectiveness of the green economy varies across countries, emphasizing the importance of tailoring green economic strategies to the unique conditions of developed and developing nations to achieve a win-win outcome for climate health and economic progress.
- Research Article
- 10.32479/ijeep.21218
- Oct 12, 2025
- International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
- Abdalla Sirag + 2 more
The link between economic development and environmental outcomes has become increasingly evident. The study examines how economic growth influences environmental degradation in Sudan, using annual time series data spanning 1980-2022. The analysis accounts for potential structural breaks in unit root and cointegration testing. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag model is employed to assess the long-run relationship. The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is evaluated using three different approaches. Findings indicate that the EKC does not hold in the case of Sudan. The results suggest that, as developing a country, Sudan’s income level remains below the threshold at which economic growth would start to reduce environmental harm. The study also highlights the significant impact of energy consumption on the country’s carbon emissions. To address these challenges, robust and well-enforced environmental policies are recommended to mitigate the adverse effects of future generations.
- Research Article
- 10.1002/sd.70297
- Oct 9, 2025
- Sustainable Development
- Canan Sancar + 4 more
ABSTRACT The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, which states that the increase in growth up to a certain income level increases environmental pollution and the increase in growth after reaching this income level decreases environmental pollution, has recently started to be investigated by including economic development and financial development in the framework of this hypothesis to better investigate the hypothesis. This study aims to investigate the impact of financial stability, economic stability, globalization, energy use, and growth on the ecological footprint in Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Turkey. In addition, the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is also tested while examining this relationship. The Panel Fourier approach is applied to test these relationships in Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Turkey over the period 1996–2022. The coefficient estimation results show that economic stability, economic globalization, growth, and energy use have a positive impact on the ecological footprint in Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Turkey, but financial stability reduces the ecological footprint. Moreover, an inverted‐N relationship was found between economic growth and pollution in these countries, which means that the Environmental Kuznets Curve is invalid in these countries in the relevant period. The results obtained from causality analysis support the results of coefficient estimation. Accordingly, a unidirectional causality was found from explanatory variables to the ecological footprint in most of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Turkey.
- Research Article
- 10.1177/21582440251406120
- Oct 1, 2025
- Sage Open
- Yılmaz Toktaş + 3 more
This study examines the impact of environmental and non-environmental goods trade on environmental quality in OECD countries over the period 1995 to 2021. Using the Quantile Regression for Panel Data (QRPD) method, the analysis explores how these two types of trade influence the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) across countries with varying levels of environmental quality. The key explanatory variables include trade in environmental goods, trade in non-environmental goods, economic growth and its squared term (to test the Environmental Kuznets Curve [EKC] hypothesis), and urbanization. The findings indicate that trade in environmental goods enhances environmental quality. In contrast, trade in non-environmental goods generally has a detrimental effect, particularly in countries with low to medium levels of environmental performance. Economic growth is associated with environmental degradation, while its squared term has a positive effect, supporting the validity of the EKC hypothesis. Urbanization is found to negatively affect environmental quality across all levels. The results also suggest that limiting the export of non-environmental goods and promoting the import of environmental goods may contribute to environmental improvement. By disaggregating trade effects and employing a distribution-sensitive method, the study provides novel empirical evidence. It offers policy-relevant insights and encourages the formulation of environmentally responsive trade and development strategies aligned with sustainable growth objectives.
- Research Article
- 10.1007/s43621-025-01419-y
- Sep 30, 2025
- Discover Sustainability
- Jia Kaiwei + 3 more
This study explores the relationships between remittances, natural resource rents, economic growth, foreign direct investment, technological innovation, and industrialization to evaluate their influences on environmental sustainability in low and middle-income economies. These nations require a solution between ecological conservation and sustainable development, as economic growth is a primary driver for worldwide expansion. The research examines LMIE panel data through advanced econometric models, which consist of CS-ARDL (Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lags), DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares), and FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares). The applied methods handle both panel heterogeneity and cross-sectional interdependence that traditional analysis models fail to address. This study investigates remittance funding for clean energy solutions alongside its effects on energy usage expansion. The analysis explores how fast industrial expansion creates environmental tensions, while FDI produces two conflicting effects because it delivers modern technology, yet leads to polluting industrial sectors. The research examines technological advancements that could help decrease emissions while making resources more efficient, even though funding and infrastructure limitations exist. The study investigates how these drivers jointly affect environmental sustainability by assessing governance and policy measures designed to minimize their negative ecological consequences. This research uses information from COP 28 climate policy discussions to deliver timely recommendations that guide policymakers in LMIEs. The study adds to EKC and pollution haven hypothesis knowledge through recommendations about how LMIEs can integrate green technologies with sustainable industrial practices and strategic FDI management to achieve sustainability.