Space Weather Events Research Articles

Constraining the inner boundaries of COCONUT through plasma beta and Alfvén speed

Space weather modelling has been gaining importance due to our increasing dependency on technology sensitive to space weather effects, such as satellite services, air traffic and power grids. Improving the reliability, accuracy and numerical performance of space weather modelling tools, including global coronal models, is essential to develop timely and accurate forecasts and to help partly mitigate the space weather threat. Global corona models, however, require accurate boundary conditions, for the formulations of which we have very limited observational data. Unsuitable boundary condition prescriptions may lead to inconsistent features in the solution flow field and spoil the code's accuracy and performance. In this paper, we develop an adjustment to the inner boundary condition of the COolfluid COrona uNstrUcTured (COCONUT) global corona model to better capture the dynamics over and around the regions of stronger magnetic fields by constraining the plasma beta and the Alfvén speed. Using data from solar observations and solar atmospheric modelling codes such as Bifrost, we find that the baseline homogeneous boundary condition formulations for pressure and density do not capture the plasma conditions physically accurately. We develop a method to adjust these prescribed pressure and density values by placing constraints on the plasma beta and the Alfvén speed that act as proxies. We demonstrate that we can remove inexplicable fast streams from the solution by constraining the maximum Alfvén speed and the minimum plasma beta on the boundary surface. We also show that the magnetic topology is not significantly affected by this treatment otherwise. The presented technique shows the potential to ease the modelling of solar maxima, especially removing inexplicable features while, at the same time, not significantly affecting the magnetic field topology around the affected regions.

Interplanetary Rotation of 2021 December 4 Coronal Mass Ejection on Its Journey to Mars

The magnetic orientation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is of great importance to understand their space weather effects. Although plenty of evidence suggests that CMEs can undergo significant rotation during the early phases of evolution in the solar corona, there are few reports that CMEs rotate in the interplanetary space. In this work, we use multispacecraft observations and a numerical simulation starting from the lower corona close to the solar surface to understand the CME event on 2021 December 4, with an emphatic investigation of its rotation. This event is observed as a partial halo CME from the back side of the Sun by coronagraphs and reaches the BepiColombo spacecraft and the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN/Tianwen-1 as a magnetic flux-rope-like structure. The simulation discloses that in the solar corona the CME is approximately a translational motion, while the interplanetary propagation process evidences a gradual change of axis orientation of the CME’s flux-rope-like structure. It is also found that the downside and the right flank of the CME moves with the fast solar wind, and the upside does in the slow-speed stream. The different parts of the CME with different speeds generate the nonidentical displacements of its magnetic structure, resulting in the rotation of the CME in the interplanetary space. Furthermore, at the right flank of the CME exists a corotating interaction region, which makes the orientation of the CME alter and also deviates from its route due to the CME. These results provide new insight into interpreting CMEs’ dynamics and structures during their traveling through the heliosphere.

Indian Network for Space Weather Impact Monitoring (InSWIM): An initiative to observe and model the low latitude ionosphere over the Indian longitudes

The Space Physics Laboratory (SPL) of Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC) has launched a science program called the Indian network for Space Weather Impact Monitoring (InSWIM) to monitor the effects of Space Weather events on the Indian low-latitude ionosphere-thermosphere system. This program aims to study the impact of Space weather on the Indian ionospheric region and develop an Ionospheric Model. The InSWIM network stations will be equipped with instruments such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receivers, Low Earth Orbit (LEO) receivers, ionosondes, magnetometers, and airglow photometers/imagers. Currently, multi-frequency, multi-constellation GNSS Receiver systems are operational at various stations in India. This network will enable us to understand (a) the quiet-time variability of the ionosphere over the Indian low-latitude region, (b) comprehensively study the response of the low-latitude ionosphere specific to the Indian longitudes under different space weather conditions, with the goal of understanding the various physical mechanisms causing variability in the ionospheric regions, and (c) develop an ionospheric model to reduce ionospheric errors in GNSS systems. Additionally, this network will provide complementary information for rocket and satellite-based experiments. This paper aims to provide details of the InSWIM network to the scientific community for its possible use in monitoring and studying the impact of space weather on the near-Earth space environment.

The Mother's Day Geomagnetic Storm on 10 May 2024: Aurora Observations and Low Latitude Space Weather Effects in Mexico

AbstractOn 10 May 2024, a severe geomagnetic storm coinciding with Mother's Day in Mexico lasted over 40 hr and produced polar auroras observable at low latitudes. This storm, the most intense since 2003, resulted from a series of solar flares and coronal mass ejections from active region 3664. The event was significant for space weather studies in Mexico, marking a milestone by enabling comprehensive measurements of its effects. The Mexico Space Weather Service (SCIESMEX) and the National Space Weather Laboratory (LANCE) had prepared for such an event since their inception. LANCE's instrument networks recorded solar chromospheric images, solar radio bursts, geomagnetic variations, Schumann resonances, ionospheric disturbances, and energetic particle flows. They also monitored Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in three strategic substations of the national electrical system. This provided unprecedented insights into the dynamics of severe space weather events at the North‐American low‐latitude environment. Citizen science efforts documented auroras and regional responses, capturing variations in geomagnetic indices, ionospheric disturbances, cosmic ray fluxes, GICs, and technological impacts. SCIESMEX worked with the National Civil Protection System (SINAPROC) to issue warnings, ensuring public awareness and preparedness. This coordination underscores the importance of effective communication and collaboration in mitigating impacts. The May 2024 geomagnetic storm demonstrated the critical role of preparedness, research, and public education in reducing the effects of future space weather events in Mexico.

Ionospheric plasma irregularities over Dronning Maud Land in Antarctica and associated space weather effects

Ionospheric plasma irregularities and associated space weather effects over Dronning Maud Land in Antarctica are studied with a multi-instrument approach. It is demonstrated during a substorm event that auroral particle precipitation associated with the edges of auroral arcs can lead to irregularities in the ionospheric plasma density that can have significant impact on trans-ionospheric radio waves. Both refractive and diffractive effects are observed on signals from the GNSS satellites, where the latter are identified by the ionospheric free linear combination approach and amplitude scintillation. Thus, intense auroral particle precipitation can lead to plasma irregularities at scales from several kilometers down to and below the Fresnel radius, and they can result in space weather effects which can lead to losing the integrity of the GNSS signals.

Blasts from the Past: New Insights from Old Space Storms

Reassessment and comparison of past space weather events highlight the potential for Earth to experience destructive geomagnetic disturbances.

Magnetic connectivity from the Sun to the Earth with MHD models. I. Impact of the magnetic modelling on connectivity validation

The magnetic connectivity between the Sun and the Earth is crucial to our understanding of the solar wind and space weather events. However, establishing this connectivity is challenging because of the lack of direct observations, which explains the need for reliable simulations. The method most often used to make such measurements over the last few years is the two-step ballistic method, but it has many free parameters that can affect the final result. Thus, we want to provide a connectivity method based on self-consistent magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models. To this end, we combined the COCONUT coronal model with the EUHFORIA heliospheric model to compute the magnetic field lines from the Earth to the Sun. We then developed a way to quantify both the spatial and temporal uncertainty associated with this computation. To validate our method, we selected four cases already studied in the literature and associated with high-speed-stream events coming from unambiguous coronal holes visible on the disk. We always find a partial overlap with the assumed CH of origin. The extent of this overlap is 19<!PCT!> for event 1, 100<!PCT!> for event 2, 45<!PCT!> for event 3, and 100<!PCT!> for event 4. We looked at the polarity at Earth over the full Carrington rotation to better understand these results. We find that, on average, MHD simulations provide a very good polarity estimation, showing 69<!PCT!> agreement with real data for event 1, 36<!PCT!> for event 2, 68<!PCT!> for event 3, and 69<!PCT!> for event 4. For events 1 and 3, we can then explain the mixed results by the spatial and temporal uncertainty. An interesting result is that, for MHD models, minimum-activity cases appear to be more challenging because of the multiple recurrent crossings of the HCS, while maximum-activity cases appear easier because of the latitudinal extent of the HCS. A similar result was also found with Parker Solar Probe data in another study. We demonstrate that it is possible to use MHD models to compute magnetic connectivity and that this approach provides results of equal quality to those from the two-step ballistic method, with additional possibilities for improvements as the models integrate more critical physics.

LiveWire: Horizontal Geoelectric Field Prediction With 1‐hr Lead‐Time Using Multi‐Fidelity Boosted Neural Networks

AbstractGeomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) are electrical currents generated by rapid changes in the geomagnetic field during space weather events, posing risks to power grids and pipelines. Traditional approaches predict GICs indirectly by forecasting , the temporal variation of the geomagnetic field, which is proportional to the induced electric field via Faraday's law. However, current physics‐based models driven by in situ solar wind measurements offer only 10–30 min lead times, insufficient for power grid operators to take mitigating actions. Additionally, grid operators prefer direct forecasts of the geoelectric field, which directly influences GICs, rather than relying on intermediate predictions of that require complex and time‐consuming calculations. We present a novel approach that directly forecasts the horizontal geoelectric field with a one‐hour lead time, bypassing predictions. Our method combines magnetometer data, magnetotelluric survey data, and solar wind inputs into a new probabilistic multi‐fidelity machine learning technique, ProBoost, resulting in the LiveWire model. Using data from the Boulder Geomagnetic Observatory (BOU) since 2002, we trained and validated LiveWire on the top 50 geoelectric field events during geomagnetic storms. Our results show that LiveWire outperforms both a persistence forecast and the operational Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) by at least 31% and 23%, respectively. This advancement in geoelectric field forecasting promises more accurate GIC predictions, helping enhance the resilience of critical infrastructure to space weather.

Extreme Space Weather Impacts on GNSS Timing Signals for Electricity Grid Management

AbstractExtreme space weather events can have serious impacts on critical infrastructure, including Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). The use of GNSS, particularly as sources of accurate timing signals, is becoming more widespread, with one example being the measurement of electricity grid frequency and phase information to aid grid management and stability. Understanding the likelihood of extreme space weather impacts on GNSS timing signals is therefore becoming vital to maintain national electricity grid resilience. This study determines critical intensity thresholds above which the complete failure of a GNSS based timing system may occur. Solar radio bursts are identified as a simple example to investigate in more detail. The probability of occurrence of an extreme space weather event with an intensity equal to or greater than the critical intensity is estimated. Both a power law and extreme value theory were used to evaluate recurrence probabilities based on historical event frequencies. The probability was estimated to be between 3%–12% per decade to cause the complete failure of any GNSS‐based timing system.

Spatio-temporal features of ionospheric disturbances resulting from March 2023 geomagnetic storm: Comparisons with March 2015 St. Patrick’s Day storm

This study explores the ionospheric disturbances induced by the March 2023 geomagnetic storm, offering insights into the complex interplay between space weather events and the Earth’s upper atmosphere. In this regard, data from ionospheric maps (global and regional electron contents) and topside plasma density (provided by the Swarm satellites) have been used. Furthermore, the findings are compared with those of the March 2015 St. Patrick’s Day storm of solar cycle 24, which exhibited notably similar onset conditions. The Global Electron Content (GEC) displays substantial positive surges in the African, Pacific, and American sectors, with a notable enhancement in the American sector on March 24, 2023. During the recovery phase (March-23 storm), negative storm effects are observed across all longitudinal sectors, with greater intensity at low-latitudes compared to mid-latitudes. Moreover, the study highlights discrepancies in positive storm effects when compared to the St. Patrick’s Day storm. During the March-2023, there was no positive storm effect observed in the pacific mid-latitude regions. This longitudinal difference in occurrence of positive storm may be attributed to potential influences from variations in the z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field and energy inputs into the magnetosphere. A super fountain effect is observed exclusively in the American sectors during both storms, exhibiting a noticeable hemispheric asymmetry. The non-uniform planetary distribution of disturbed thermospheric winds likely played a major role in the ionospheric asymmetry in the American region during the 2023 event.

Solar Flare Effects in the Martian Ionosphere and Magnetosphere: 3‐D Time‐Dependent MHD‐MGITM Simulation and Comparison With MAVEN and MGS

AbstractA comprehensive modeling study has been conducted to investigate space weather effects at Mars during the 10 September 2017 solar flare, utilizing an integrated framework that combines the global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model and Mars Global Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Model (MGITM). This is the first time the thermosphere‐ionosphere‐magnetosphere system is self‐consistently simulated under realistic, time‐varying conditions. Our simulations align well with observations from the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN). Recognizing that complexities due to highly disturbed upstream conditions and rotating crustal fields obscure solar flare effects in orbit‐to‐orbit comparisons, we perform controlled simulations of nonflare and flare cases and exploit their contrast to quantify spatiotemporal variations in flare impact. Our results highlight pronounced and rapid dayside ionospheric perturbations, contrasting with weaker and delayed nightside responses. Notably, in the topside ionosphere, and C densities increase primarily on the dayside below 300 km altitude, peaking with an increase of 20%–30%. The density shows a more significant increase of up to 50%, extending into the magnetosphere and nightside via plasma transport, increasing its total loss rate by 14%. We observe distinct altitude‐dependent patterns in dayside electron density enhancements in percent, characterized by a weakening with altitude and a rapid decay below 150 km in line with the flare development, and a gradual intensification between 150–300 km due to plasma transport and flare‐induced atmospheric upwelling. Earlier Mars Global Surveyor observations were limited to the low‐altitude pattern due to atmospheric expansion and missed the higher altitude variations observed by MAVEN.

May 11–12 Extreme Space Weather Events Brief and Dose Rate Model Response

In this brief paper, we analyze space weather events that occurred on May 11 and 12, 2024, from the perspective of an operational space weather center that provides advisories for civil aviation. One of the key metrics monitored by the center is the radiation dose rate at operational flight altitudes. A model implemented by the center provides the dose rate in real time. The model showed that dangerous levels were momentarily exceeded just above the usual 30,000 feet level during the events. This paper highlights differences in models used by various space weather centers, emphasizing the need for harmonization.

Mid-infrared Measurements of Ion-irradiated Carbonaceous Meteorites: How to Better Detect Space Weathering Effects

Remote sensing study of asteroids will soon enter a new era with an increasing amount of data available thanks to the JWST, especially in the mid-infrared (MIR) range that allows identification of mineral species. It will then be possible to establish a taxonomy, as is currently available in the visible–near-infrared range, based on MIR spectral parameters. It had been previously shown that the MIR range is very sensitive to space weathering (SpWe) effects. Thus, it is crucial to determine which spectral changes are involved to disentangle initial composition from surface aging and provide tools to interpret future remote sensing data of asteroids. We present here MIR measurements of a wide variety of ion-irradiated carbonaceous chondrites as a simulation of the solar wind SpWe component. We evaluate several parameters (the Christiansen feature and Reststrahlen band positions, the width of the main Si–O band) and test different measurement conditions (ion energy and geometry of observation). We highlight a dependency of the spectral changes with the initial composition, as hydrated samples are more affected than anhydrous ones. We confirm the role of the geometry in the detection of SpWe effects as already shown in the near-infrared, with a competition effect between the depth probed by photons and the implantation depth of ions (function of the energy used). We will discuss the results in the framework of future observations and Ryugu’s and Bennu’s samples studied in the laboratory.

Observational Overview of the May 2024 G5-Level Geomagnetic Storm: From Solar Eruptions to Terrestrial Consequences

This study reports comprehensive observations for the G5-level geomagnetic storm that occurred from May 10 to 12, 2024, the most intense event since the 2003 Halloween storm. The storm was triggered by a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originating from the merging of two active regions 13664/13668, which formed a large and complex photospheric magnetic configuration and produced X-class flares in early May 2024. Among the events, the most significant CME, driven by an X2.2 flare on May 9, caught up with and merged with a preceding slower CME associated with an X-class flare on May 8. These combined CMEs reached 1 AU simultaneously, resulting in an extreme geomagnetic storm. Geostationary satellite observations revealed changes in Earth’s magnetosphere due to solar wind impacts, increased fluxes of high-energy particles, and periodic magnetic field fluctuations accompanied by particle injections. Extreme geomagnetic storms resulting from the interaction of the solar wind with the Earth’s magnetosphere caused significant energy influx into Earth’s upper atmosphere over the polar regions, leading to thermospheric heating and changes in the global atmospheric composition and ionosphere. As part of this global disturbance, significant disruptions were also observed in the East Asian sector, including the Korean Peninsula. Ground-based observations show strong negative storm effects in the ionosphere, which are associated with thermospheric heating and resulting in decreases in the oxygen-to-nitrogen ratio (O/N2) in high-latitude regions. Global responses of storm-time prompt penetration electric fields were also observed from magnetometers over the East-Asian longitudinal sector. We also briefly report storm-time responses of aurora and cosmic rays using all-sky cameras and neutron monitors operated by the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI). The extensive observations of the G5-level storm offer crucial insights into Sun-Earth interactions during extreme space weather events and may help establish better preparation for future space weather challenges.

Sunspot Group Detection and Classification by Dual Stream Convolutional Neural Network Method

The automatic detection and analysis of sunspots play a crucial role in understanding solar dynamics and predicting space weather events. This paper proposes a novel method for sunspot group detection and classification called the dual stream Convolutional Neural Network with Attention Mechanism (DSCNN-AM). The network consists of two parallel streams each processing different input data allowing for joint processing of spatial and temporal information while classifying sunspots. It takes in the white light images as well as the corresponding magnetic images that reveal both the optical and magnetic features of sunspots. The extracted features are then fused and processed by fully connected layers to perform detection and classification. The attention mechanism is further integrated to address the “edge dimming” problem which improves the model’s ability to handle sunspots near the edge of the solar disk. The network is trained and tested on the SOLAR-STORM1 data set. The results demonstrate that the DSCNN-AM achieves superior performance compared to existing methods, with a total accuracy exceeding 90%.

Analyzing the Sequence of Phases Leading to the Formation of the Active Region 13664, with Potential Carrington-like Characteristics

Abstract Several recurrent X-class flares from Active Region (AR) 13664 triggered a severe G5-class geomagnetic storm between 2024 May 10 and 11. The morphology and compactness of this AR closely resemble the AR responsible for the famous Carrington Event of 1859. Although the induced geomagnetic currents produced a value of the Dst index, probably 1 order of magnitude weaker than that of the Carrington Event, the characteristics of AR 13664 warrant special attention. Understanding the mechanisms of magnetic field emergence and transformation in the solar atmosphere that lead to the formation of such an extensive, compact, and complex AR is crucial. Our analysis of the emerging flux and horizontal motions of the magnetic structures observed in the photosphere reveals the fundamental role of a sequence of emerging bipoles at the same latitude and longitude, followed by converging and shear motions. This temporal order of processes frequently invoked in magnetohydrodynamic models—emergence, converging motions, and shear motions—is critical for the storage of magnetic energy preceding strong solar eruptions that, under the right timing, location, and direction conditions, can trigger severe space weather events on Earth.

Extended metric validation of a semi-physical Space Weather Modeling Framework conductance model on field-aligned current estimations

In this study, a detailed metric survey on the “Galaxy 15” (April 2010) space weather event is conducted to validate MAGNetosphere–Ionosphere–Thermosphere (MAGNIT), a semi-physical auroral ionospheric conductance model characterizing four precipitation sources, against AMPERE measurements via field-aligned current (FAC) characteristics. As part of this study, the comparative performance of three ionosphere electrodynamic specifications involving auroral conductance models, MAGNIT, Ridley Legacy Model (RLM) (empirical), and Conductance Model for Extreme Events (CMEE) (empirical), within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), is demonstrated. Overall, MAGNIT exhibits marginally improved predictions; root mean square error values in upward and downward FACs of MAGNIT predictions compared to AMPERE data are smaller than those of CMEE and Ridley Ionosphere Model (RIM) by ∼12.7% and ∼6.24% before the storm, ∼4.52% and ∼2.13% better during the main phase, ∼1.98% and ∼1.27% worse during the second minimum, and better by ∼1.84% and ∼1.49% by the beginning of the recovery, respectively. In all three model configurations, the dusk and night magnetic local time (MLT) sectors over-predict throughout the storm, while the day and dawn MLT sectors under-predict in response to interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions. In addition to accuracy and bias, similar results and conclusions are drawn from additional metrics, including in the categories of correlation, precision, extremes, and skill, and recommendations are made for the best-performing model configuration in each metric category. Visual data–model comparisons conducted by studying the FAC location and latitude/MLT spread throughout various phases of the storm suggest that the spatial extent of the FACs is captured relatively well in the night-side auroral oval, unlike in the day-side oval. The spread in latitude of the FACs matches that in the previous literature on other model performances. This information on auroral precipitation sources and their weight on FACs, along with metrics from model–data comparisons, can be used to modify MAGNIT settings to optimize SWMF model performance.

Unusual Forbush Decreases and Geomagnetic Storms on 24 March, 2024 and 11 May, 2024

As the current solar cycle 25 progresses and moves towards solar maxima, solar activity is increasing and extreme space weather events are taking place. Two severe geomagnetic storms accompanied by two large Forbush decreases in galactic cosmic ray intensity were recorded in March and May, 2024. More precisely, on 24 March 2024, a G4 (according to the NOAA Space Weather Scale for Geomagnetic Storms) geomagnetic storm was registered, with the corresponding geomagnetic indices Kp and Dst equal to 8 and −130 nT, respectively. On the same day, the majority of ground-based neutron monitor stations recorded an unusual Forbush decrease. This event stands out from a typical Forbush decrease because of its high amplitude decrease phase and rapid recovery phase, i.e., 15% decrease and an extremely rapid recovery of 10% within 1.5 h, as recorded at the Oulu neutron monitor station. Furthermore, on 10–13 May 2024, an unusual G5 geomagnetic storm (geomagnetic indices Kp = 9 and Dst = −412 nT) was registered (the last G5 storm had been observed in 2003). In addition, the polar neutron monitor stations recorded a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE74) during the recovery phase of a large Forbush decrease of 15%, which started on 10 May 2024. In this study, a detailed analysis of these two severe events in regard to the accompanying solar activity, interplanetary conditions and solar energetic particle events is provided. Moreover, the results of the NKUA “GLE Alert++ system”, the NKUA/IZMIRAN “FD Precursory Signals” method and the NKUA “ap Prediction tool” concerning these events are presented.

Perpendicular Electrical Conductivity in the Topside Ionosphere Derived from Swarm Measurements

The study of the physical properties of the topside ionosphere is fundamental to investigating the energy balance of the ionosphere and developing accurate models to predict relevant phenomena, which are often at the root of Space Weather effects in the near-Earth environment. One of the most important physical parameters characterising the ionospheric medium is electrical conductivity, which is crucial for the onset and amplification of ionospheric currents and for calculating the power density dissipated by such currents. We characterise, for the first time, electrical conductivity in the direction perpendicular to the geomagnetic field, namely Pedersen and Hall conductivities, in the topside ionosphere at an altitude of about 450 km. For this purpose, we use eight years of in situ simultaneous measurements of electron density, electron temperature and geomagnetic field strength acquired by the Swarm A satellite. We present global statistical maps of perpendicular electrical conductivity and study their variations depending on magnetic latitude and local time, seasons, and solar activity. Our findings indicate that the most prominent features of perpendicular electrical conductivity are located at low latitudes and are probably driven by the complex dynamics of the Equatorial Ionisation Anomaly. At higher latitudes, perpendicular conductivity is a few orders of magnitude lower than that at low latitudes. Nevertheless, conductivity features are modulated by solar activity and seasonal variations at all latitudes.

An approach to interpreting natural indicators of the state of space weather to assess the effects of its impact on high-latitude power systems

The dynamic exploration and development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation is inextricably connected with the need to minimize technospheric risks, including those associated with the space weather effects on power equipment systems operated within the boundaries of the auroral oval. At the same time, accompanying monitoring of space weather parameters and geomagnetic field variations in the Arctic is carried out only through a group of satellites and several dozen magnetic stations located mainly in the United States, Canada, northern and central Europe. Obviously, the current situation practically excludes the possibility of promptly diagnostics of the level of geoinduced currents (GIC) for most of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, where in fact the only available indicator of the state of space weather is auroras. In the paper the authors propose an approach to interpreting the manifestation of auroras to assess the effects of space weather on objects and systems of high-latitude infrastructure. Thus, using the example of the “Vykhodnoy” substation of the “Severny Transit” main electrical network, it is shown that when recording auroras in the north, zenith and south, the most probable (averaged over 30 min) GIC level is 0.08, 0.23 and 0.68 A accordingly. In this case, the probability that the average half-hour GIC level will exceed 2 A (in the case of auroras in the north, zenith and south) is ∼6, ∼10 and ∼15%, respectively. In conclusion, ways of modernization and the limits of applicability of the proposed approach are considered.