Effects Of Recession Research Articles

Payments for environmental services and economic growth: A theoretical model

Given the global climate emergency and the complex financing problems facing developing countries, some economists are advocating the introduction of payments for environmental services. The question is whether payments for environmental services will enable developing countries to make the ecological transition compatible with the economic growth they need to develop. This study presents a theoretical analysis of the economic and ecological efficiency of such a mechanism, and aims to determine whether it has any recessionary or disincentive effects. In other words, it determines whether, from a theoretical point of view, the environmental services provided by developing countries are compatible with continued growth. The study introduces a “payments for environmental services” procedure into a general equilibrium model (with involuntary unemployment) composed of multinational firms in developed and developing economies. This theoretical model yields the following results. Firstly, higher ecological taxes can directly increase environmental services without any recessionary effect. The system of payments for environmental services means that green investment is not necessarily incompatible with growth and development in developing countries. On the other hand, services in return for environmental payments can lead to a rebound effect from polluting activities, which is why such programs need to be accompanied by more radical environmental policies. In conclusion, while payments for environmental services can promote both ecological transition and growth in developing countries, it is necessary to control the rebound effect arising from the development of economic activity.

Cities’ Hands Are Tied: Short-Term Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Natural Population Growth in Metropolitan Greece

To delineate new directions of urban development in a context of demographic shrinkage in Southern Europe, the present study illustrates a comparative analysis of the demographic balance in metropolitan Athens, Greece (1956–2021). The analysis delineates short-term and long-term dynamics of the natural population balance, considering the impact of the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic, and assuming a contemporary increase in gross mortality rates and a marked fertility reduction associated with birth postponement. To address such objectives, we have compared the natural growth of population (the ratio of the total number of births to deaths) at ten year intervals (1956, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2009, 2019, 2020, 2021) in 115 municipalities of metropolitan Athens, controlling for the local context. The empirical results of descriptive statistics, spatial analysis, correlation statistics, non-parametric inference, and exploratory multivariate techniques outline the indirect impact of COVID-19 on population dynamics, being in some ways additive to the already observed effects of the Great Recession, reinforcing demographic shrinkage in specific local contexts. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Great Crisis likely accelerated the typical outcomes (population aging and low fertility) of the second demographic transition in Greece. These dynamics are associated with more volatile (and possibly reduced) immigration flows and with enhanced emigration, fueling urban shrinkage and a progressive economic decline of metropolitan regions, as our evidence suggests for Athens. Additional research should ascertain the aggregate, indirect role of pandemics in population dynamics as a proxy of urban and regional decline in European regions exposed to long-term aging.

The Italian payback effect: the causal impact of the great recession on political discontent

ABSTRACT Grounding on the theories of economic voting and political opposition, this paper investigates whether the Italian Local Labour Markets (LLMs) most affected by the Great Recession reacted in the ballot box voting against the domestic institutions or in favour of anti-European parties. We exploit a recent econometric technique in the counterfactual framework, which adopts a non-parametric generalisation of the difference-in-differences estimator. Our findings show a causal negative impact on the share of Berlusconi’s party, the incumbent party during the crisis, statistically significant in those LLMs with the lowest institutional quality and in the Centre and in the Islands of Italy. We find no causal effect on the anti-European vote whatsoever. People living in the LLMs that suffered the most the effects of the Great Recession used their vote to harm the party in charge, which they deemed responsible for the economic consequences, with a payback effect.

Differential Effects of Expansions and Recessions on Social Assistance Duration: The Case of Regional Minimum Income Programmes in Spain

In this paper we study the effects of the business cycle on welfare benefit duration and successful exits from the welfare programs. We construct durations for households entering these programs using administrative data for the total population participating in 2005-2016 in Minimum Income Integration programs in Spain,and combine these with province-level data on aggregate unemployment rate. We estimate discrete hazard models to analyse whether different labour conditions at entry to the program significantly affect the length of participation, and whether favourable conditions increase or decrease the hazard of a successful leaving the program. Our results show that higher unemployment rates are related to lower probability of successful exit from the program, and this effect becomes larger during recessions than in expansion periods.

Introduction Economic and Psychological Well-Being During COVID-19 Pandemic in Albania, A Need for Sustainability

This research studies economic and psychological well-being sustainzbility through comparative data from two research studies, which the authors conducted in two different time logs. The research question arises as to whether economic and psychological well-being perceptions through the years are affected by age, gender, and monthly revenues for Albanian adults. Thus, a dataset of 493 individuals was analyzed. Crosstabulation analysis and descriptive data demonstrated that the perceptions related to more economic difficulties were reported in both studies despite the level of monthly revenues. The findings of this research are that females report more optimism in 2023, both related to economic and psychological well-being, but further investigation is needed. Moreover, the young population reports a general decrease in psychological well-being, not considering life enjoyable. Despite monthly revenues, participants’ perception of economic problems is very high, even after the COVID-19 waves. These findings, in line with the SDG’s agenda in Albania, require attention and continuous observation to achieve economic and well-being Sustainability. Theoretical and practical implications of results and recommendations for future research are discussed. Future research should develop research findings theories incorporating the economic environments into relevance to the individuals of families’ financial stress and well-being. Moreover, the effects of the post-pandemic recession on psychological well-being must be investigated further.

The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic Recession on Less Educated Women’s Human Capital: Some Projections

The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic Recession on Less Educated Women’s Human Capital: Some Projections

The Impact of Recess on Students: A Scoping Review of Developmental Outcomes and Methodological Considerations

ABSTRACT Once a hallmark of the elementary experience, recess time is now being exchanged for increased classroom time as standardized test results drive decision-making. This scoping review examined the impact of recess on school-age students, providing decision-makers valuable evidence to help determine the role recess should play in the academic day. The included studies (n = 73) examined the impact recess had on school-age students in the areas of physical activity, social-emotional learning, academic performance, injuries, and food consumption. In our review, 7% to 76% of recess time was spent in device-measured, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity; however, all children do not participate equally. Additionally, recess provides opportunities to develop social-emotional skills through problem-solving and may improve academic achievement and classroom behavior. Food consumption increased when recess occurred before lunch. Recess does, however, include a risk of injury. The majority of studies were cross-sectional designs and conducted in the United States. Thus, rigorous studies examining the causal effects of recess on multiple development outcomes for diverse students are needed to make specific recommendations on the optimal duration and scheduling of recess to optimize student learning and health.

Economic crises as critical junctures for policy and structural changes towards decarbonization – the cases of Spain and Germany

ABSTRACT Crises may act as tipping points for decarbonization pathways by triggering structural economic change or offering windows of opportunity for policy change. We investigate both types of effects of the global financial and COVID-19 crises on decarbonization in Spain and Germany through a quantitative Kaya-decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions and through a qualitative review of climate and energy policy changes. We show that the global financial crisis resulted in a critical juncture for Spanish CO2 emissions due to the combined effects of the deep economic recession and crisis-induced structural change, resulting in reductions in carbon and energy intensities and shifts in the economic structure. However, the crisis also resulted in a rollback of renewable energy policy, halting progress in the transition to green electricity. The impacts were less pronounced in Germany, where pre-existing decarbonization and policy trends continued after the crisis. Recovery packages had modest effects, primarily due to their temporary nature and the limited share of climate-related spending. The direct short-term impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on CO2 emissions were more substantial in Spain than in Germany. The policy responses in both countries sought to align short-term economic recovery with the long-term climate change goals of decarbonization, but it is too soon to observe their lasting effects. Our findings show that crises can affect structural change and support decarbonization but suggest that such effects depend on pre-existing trends, the severity of the crisis and political manoeuvring during the crisis.

Investigation of Recessive Effects of Coding Variants on Common Clinical Phenotypes in Exome-Sequenced UK Biobank Participants

Introduction: Previous studies have demonstrated effects of rare coding variants on common, clinically relevant phenotypes although the additive burden of these variants makes only a small contribution to overall trait variance. Although recessive effects of individual homozygous variants have been studied, little work has been done to elucidate the impact of rare coding variants occurring together as compound heterozygotes. Methods: In this study, attempts were made to identify pairs of variants likely to be occurring as compound heterozygotes using 200,000 exome-sequenced subjects from the UK Biobank. Pairs of variants, which were seen together in the same subject more often than would be expected by chance, were excluded as it was assumed that these might be present in the same haplotype. Attention was restricted to variants with minor allele frequency ≤0.05 and to those predicted to alter amino acid sequence or prevent normal gene expression. For each gene, compound heterozygotes were assigned scores based on the rarity and predicted functional consequences of the constituent variants and the scores were used in a logistic regression analysis to test for association with hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, and type 2 diabetes. Results: No statistically significant associations were observed and the results conformed to the distribution, which would be expected under the null hypothesis. The average number of apparently compound heterozygous subjects for each gene was only 282.2. Conclusion: It seems difficult to detect an effect of compound heterozygotes on the risk of these phenotypes. Even if recessive effects from compound heterozygotes do occur, they would only affect a small number of people and overall would not make a substantial contribution to phenotypic variance. This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource.

Effects of injection recess in methane turbulent combustion for space propulsion

Effects of injection recess in methane turbulent combustion for space propulsion

COVID-19's death transfer to Sub-Saharan Africa

The COVID-19 spread very quickly around the world following its discovery in China, in December 2019. Lockdowns implemented in China and the Global North to control the propagation of the virus and to save human lives have resulted in a global recession. The transmission of the recessionary effects from the Global North to the Global South is reflected in the decline in sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) GDP and the associated increase in poverty. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how the recession induced in China and the Global North by COVID-19 lockdowns may have had indirect effects on SSA mortality that are higher than those directly attributed to the pandemic itself. Our methodology relies on a three-step relationship: (i) the impact of lockdowns on the recession in the North, (ii) the impact of the recession in the North on income in SSA countries, and (iii) the impact of a decline in income on mortality in SSA. We show that COVID-19-induced lockdowns in the Global North, through the severe recessions they induced in the Global South, resulted in the transfer of between 538,000 and 679,000 deaths in one year to SSA, including the deaths of 140,000 to 177,000 children aged 0–5 years. This corresponds to a 6–7% increase in the crude death rate and a 5–6% increase in under-5 mortality. These figures are much higher than the number of deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 in SSA. Thus, policymakers must not lose sight of the indirect excess mortality caused by global economic recession triggered by the pandemic. Our results reveal the need to increase the resilience of SSA countries to exogenous shocks, including COVID-19, which, in addition to increasing poverty, may induce excessive mortality due to the high sensitivity of mortality in SSA countries to economic recession.

Effects of Economic Recession on Women’s Preference or Avoidance of High-Calorie Foods

Effects of Economic Recession on Women’s Preference or Avoidance of High-Calorie Foods

UNC-82/NUAK kinase is required by myosin A, but not myosin B, to assemble and function in the thick filament arms of C. elegans striated muscle.

The mechanisms that ensure proper assembly, activity, and turnover of myosin II filaments are fundamental to a diverse range of cellular processes. In Caenorhabditis elegans striated muscle, thick filaments contain two myosins that are functionally distinct and spatially segregated. Using transgenic double mutants, we demonstrate that the ability of increased myosin A expression to restore muscle structure and movement in myosin B mutants requires UNC-82/NUAK kinase activity. Myosin B function appears unaffected in the kinase-impaired unc-82(e1220) mutant: the recessive antimorphic effects on early assembly of paramyosin and myosin A in this mutant are counteracted by increased myosin B expression and exacerbated by loss of myosin B. Using chimeric myosins and motility assays, we mapped the region of myosin A that requires UNC-82 activity to a 531-amino-acid region of the coiled-coil rod. This region includes the 264-amino-acid Region 1, which is sufficient in chimeric myosins to rescue the essential filament-initiation function of myosin A, as well as two sites that interact with myosin head domains in the Interacting Heads Motif. A specific physical interaction between myosin A and UNC-82::GFP is supported by GFP labeling of ectopic myosin A filaments but not thin filaments. We hypothesize that UNC-82 regulates assembly competence of myosin A during parallel assembly in the filament arms.

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on vocational education and training in Germany

ABSTRACT In this paper, we investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on vocational education and training in Germany. We exploit rich establishment-level survey data to estimate the causal effects of the pandemic by applying difference-in-differences estimation, contrasting trends in outcomes between establishments that suffered to varying degrees from adverse economic impacts after the first lockdown. We find that, due to the pandemic, establishments have not become more likely to leave the training market but hired less new trainees and retained less of their recent graduates in the first two years of the crisis, on average. We also compare these effects with the effects of the Great Recession on training and find that both are remarkably similar. Our findings foster concerns that the pandemic increases future skills shortage in the labour market and dampens young peoples’ career prospects.

Assessment of retinal and choroidal microcirculation after unilateral recession–resection surgery for horizontal strabismus by swept-source optical coherence tomography angiography

This study explored the possible hemodynamic changes of the retina and choroid after horizontal strabismus surgery using swept-source optical coherence tomography angiography (SS-OCTA). 32 eyes of 32 patients who underwent unilateral horizontal rectus muscle recession–resection surgery were included. SS-OCTA examinations were performed preoperatively and one week postoperatively. Several OCTA measurements were used, including vessel density (VD) of the superficial vascular complex (SVC), VD of the deep vascular complex (DVC), VD of the choriocapillaris (CC), choroidal vascular index (CVI) and choroidal thickness (CT). No significant change in VD of SVC, DVC, and CC was observed whereas CT increased significantly with CVI unchanged. Recession–resection surgery for horizontal strabismus seemed not to significantly influence the microcirculation of the retina and CC in the early postoperative period. However, choroidal thickening happened with a constant CVI probably due to the postoperative inflammation. Further studies are needed to investigate the long-term effects of unilateral recession–resection surgery for horizontal strabismus on the microcirculation of the retina and choroid.

Comment on: “The International Spillovers of Synchronous Monetary Tightening” by Dario Caldara, Francesco Ferrante, Matteo Iacoviello, Andrea Prestipino, and Albert Queralto

Ever since Rogoff, 1985, international policy cooperation has been considered particularly counterproductive in periods of disinflation—the argument being that cross-border agreement aiming to moderate the global recessionary effects of monetary policy would erode the credibility of domestic monetary authorities in the eyes of domestic workers and firms. The paper by Caldara et al. offers a timely and healthy warning—cross-border spillovers of monetary tightening may be highly non linear: The cumulative effects of strongly anti-inflationary stance in many countries may worsen the trade off faced by each national monetary authority.

Angiotensin-converting enzyme insertion/deletion gene polymorphism and the progression of cerebral microbleeds.

The angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) insertion (I)/deletion (D) polymorphism has been studied as a genetic candidate for cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD). However, no previous study has evaluated the relationship between the ACE I/D polymorphism and cerebral microbleed (CMB), an important CSVD marker. We evaluated the association between ACE I/D polymorphisms and 2-year changes in CMBs. The CHALLENGE (Comparison Study of Cilostazol and Aspirin on Changes in Volume of Cerebral Small Vessel Disease White Matter Changes) database was analyzed. Of 256 subjects, 186 participants who underwent a 2-year follow-up brain scan and ACE genotyping were included. Our analysis was conducted by dividing the ACE genotype into two groups (DD vs. ID/II) under the assumption of the recessive effects of the D allele. A linear mixed-effect model was used to compare the 2-year changes in the number of CMBs between the DD and combined ID/II genotypes. Among 186 patients included in this study, 24 (12.9%) had the DD genotype, 91 (48.9%) had the ID genotype, and 71 (38.2%) had the II genotype. Baseline clinical characteristics and cerebral small vessel disease markers were not different between the two groups (DD vs. ID/II) except for the prevalence of hypertension (DD 66.7% vs. ID/II 84.6%; p = 0.04). A multivariate linear mixed-effects model showed that the DD carriers had a greater increase in total CMB counts than the ID/II carriers after adjusting for the baseline number of CMBs, age, sex, and hypertension (estimated mean of difference [standard error (SE)] = 1.33 [0.61]; p = 0.03). When we performed an analysis of cases divided into deep and lobar CMBs, only lobar CMBs were significantly different between the two groups (estimated mean of difference [SE] = 0.94 [0.42]; p = 0.02). The progression of CMBs over 2 years was greater in the ACE DD carriers compared with the combined II/ID carriers. The results of our study indicate a possible association between the ACE I/D polymorphism and CMB. A study with a larger sample size is needed to confirm this association.

Government policies and manufacturing production during the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper evaluates the impact of government support and containment measures on the manufacturing production cycle (MPC) of 39 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. To the best of our knowledge, the effects of these variables on the MPC have not been studied. To obtain reliable evidence, we resort to two complementary econometric techniques: the Arellano-Bond Generalized Method of Moments (GMMs) and the Arellano-Bover GMMs. The evidence is consistent across econometric methods in showing that: 1) Closure and containment measures have been recessionary, 2) Income support measures and interest rate cuts have been effective in raising manufacturing production, and 3) Real exchange rate depreciations do not stimulate (and could even discourage) manufacturing production, presumably because they make imported intermediate inputs more expensive. Therefore, raising consumption through higher income and investment through lower interest rates can alleviate the recessionary effects of closure and containment policies, whereas depreciating the currency may not be effective to boost manufacturing production amid falling world trade and disrupted global supply chains, which could interact with a weaker currency to make imported intermediate inputs even more costly.

Assessing the contaminant reduction effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in China

This paper presents a comprehensive system for assessing contaminant emissions, including the dominant contaminant reduction effects, recessive contaminant reduction effects, and contaminant reduction efficiency indexes. The system is used to evaluate the linkage changes in contaminant emissions reduction across different sectors, the ease of regulation, and the returns on emissions reduction efforts. The study's results demonstrate that firstly, COVID-19 initially reduced contaminant emissions across almost all sectors, although this effect waned over time. Secondly, applying conventional regulatory measures to sectors with high reductions in contaminant emissions may not yield the expected results. Thirdly, while some sectors may be more difficult to regulate, they may offer a higher return on investment in terms of emissions reduction. Based on the above results, the paper advocates for timely measures to consolidate environmental gains, prevent rebounding of contaminant emissions, prioritize supervision and management of easily regulated sectors, prioritize upgrading of cleaner production in sectors with high reduction efficiency indices, and increase investment in environmental technology.

Vivere le crisi economiche nell'ombra. Una analisi del rischio di perdere il lavoro per la popolazione straniera irregolare in Lombardia (2011-2021)

Migrants are a heterogeneous group concerning their residence sta-tus, which determines their different ability to cope with economic cri-ses. Migrants in an irregular condition are considered the most vulnera-ble, but empirical evidence to support this hypothesis is scarce. Using survey data from the Regional Observatory for Integration and Multi-ethnicity of Lombardy Region, this paper analyses the risk of transition to unemployment or inactivity status between 2011 and 2021, confirm-ing the association with legal status. However, different trends emerge when comparing the effects of the Great Recession and the pandemic crisis. While the irregular component was more exposed to the risk of losing its job during the Great Recession, the pandemic years show the opposite trend.