Effects Of Land Cover Change Research Articles

Assessment of water retention dynamic in water resource formation area: A case study of the northern slope of the Qinling Mountains in China

Study RegionThe northern slope of Qinling Mountains (NQL) is an important water retention (WR) area in China, which guarantees the utilization of water resources in the plain area. However, the effects of significant changes in climate and land cover on WR have not been quantitatively studied in recent years. Study FocusIn this study, we quantified the relative impacts of climate and land cover changes on WR at NQL and predicted the future changes of WR under different climate scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5). New Hydrological Insights for the RegionThe results indicated that WR in NQL has exhibited an overall increase from 1985 to 2020 at a rate of 1.10 mm/a, with climate and land cover change explaining 86.3 % and 13.7 % of this change, respectively. Although precipitation has increased since 1998, the compounding effects of land cover change and precipitation intensity increase have led to a slight decline of WR magnitude and efficiency due to their offsetting impacts. Under future climate change, the WR capacity changes in the SSP2–4.5 are relatively stable, while the significant increase in temperature under the SSP5–8.5 lead to a decreasing trend in WR efficiency. In addition, we proposed an indicator framework to evaluate WR using WR efficiency and baseflow lag time. Our results may provide valuable insights for sustainable utilization and scientific management of water resources.

Revealing the dynamic effects of land cover change on land surface temperature in global major bay areas

Comparative studies across national boundaries on urban heat islands (UHI) are lacking, especially comparative analyses among globally important bay area urban agglomerations at different levels of urbanizations. Bay areas around the world are currently experiencing different stages of urbanization, and the transformation of urban land cover into thermal environments varies significantly. This study investigated the spatial-temporal changes of land cover change (LCC) and the land surface temperature (LST) in four major bay areas (including the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), the New York Bay Area (NYBA), the Tokyo Bay Area (TBA), and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area (GBA)) from 2000 to 2020. Utilizing correlation analysis and the multiscale geographical weighted regression model (MGWR), the goal was to understand how LCC impact the thermal environmental regionally. The results showed that: (1) The main shift in land cover involved a decrease in forested and cultivated area and an increase in impervious surfaces, with deforestation and agriculture conversion being major factors in this increase. The GBA gave a significant 112% rise in impervious surface during this period. (2) The LST trended towards higher, medium LST zones, closely linked with urban impervious surface expansion. (3) The MGWR model highlighted the direct non-stationary relationship between land cover alterations and LST effects. It showed that conversion to impervious surfaces, particularly from water and cultivated lands, markedly intensified LST, whereas water bodies and forests demonstrated a substantial capacity to mitigate LST. Urban planners were advised to mitigate LST elevations stemming from the transformation of forest lands and aquatic environments into impervious areas, a change notably prevalent in highly urbanized regions. This study provides valuable perspectives on balancing the management of urban thermal environments and urbanization processes.

Effects of Land Cover Changes on Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Using SlideforMAP Software (Mt. Nerone, Italy)

Land cover changes in mountainous areas due to silvo-pastoral abandonment can affect soil stability, especially on steep slopes. In addition, the increase in rainfall intensity in recent decades requires re-assessing landslide susceptibility and vegetation management for soil protection. This study was carried out using the software SlideforMAP in the Mt. Nerone massif (central Italy) to assess (i) the effects of land cover changes on slope stability over the past 70 years (1954–2021) and (ii) the role of actual vegetation cover during intense rainfall events. The study area has undergone a significant change in vegetation cover over the years, with a reduction in mainly pastures (−80%) and croplands (−22%) land cover classes in favor of broadleaf forests (+64%). We simulated twelve scenarios, combining land cover conditions and rainfall intensities, and analyzed the landslide failure probability results. Vegetation cover significantly increased the slope stability, up to three to four times compared to the unvegetated areas (29%, 68%, and 89%, respectively, in the no cover, 1954, and 2021 scenarios). The current land cover provided protection against landslide susceptibility, even during extreme rainfall events, for different return periods. The 30-year return period was a critical condition for a significant stability reduction. In addition, forest species provide different mitigation effects due to their root system features. The results showed that species with deep root systems, such as oaks, provide more effective slope stability than other species, such as pines. This study helps to quantify the mitigation effects of vegetation cover and suggests that physically based probabilistic models can be used at the regional scale to detect the areas prone to failure and the triggering of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. This approach can be important in land planning and management to mitigate risks in mountainous regions.

The Effect of Land Cover Change on Soil Erosion in Awach Kibuon Sub-basin, Kenya

Land cover change is a significant driver of soil erosion. While soil erosion is a natural process, human activities can significantly alter the landscape, making soil more vulnerable to erosion. This erosion reduces a watershed's capacity to sustain vital natural resources and ecosystem services. This study investigated the impact of these changes on soil erosion within four hydrological units (Awach Kibuon, Awach Owade, Awach Kasipul, and Awach Kabondo) of the Awach Kibuon sub-basin between 2018 and 2023. The specific objective of the study was to quantify the effect of land cover change on soil erosion rate and determine how specific land cover types affect soil erosion in the study area. This study employed a quasi-longitudinal design to assess the influence of land cover changes on soil erosion. Sentinel-2 NDVI satellite imagery provided land cover data. The land cover maps, soil data, rainfall data and the Digital Elevation Model were used in the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation Model within a GIS environment to estimate soil erosion rates. The study revealed a consistent decline in vegetation cover across all hydrological units, as indicated by a decrease in NDVI. The mean NDVI decreased by 12.88%, 10.92%, 4.78%, and 11.92% in Awach Kibuon, Awach Owade, Awach Kasipul and Awach Kabondo respectively. Conversely, the mean soil erosion rate increased by 23.9% in Awach Kibuon, 17.85% in Awach Owade, 24.43% in Awach Kasipul, and 20.54% in Awach Kabondo. Sediment yield increased by 33% in Awach Kibuon, 18% in Awach Owade, 17% in Awach Kasipul, and 23% in Awach Kabondo. These findings suggest a direct relationship between reduced vegetation and elevated soil erosion. The relationship between land cover and erosion varies depending on the density of vegetation. Areas with dense vegetation cover have an inverse relationship, highlighting the protective role of vegetation cover. However, the study also observed that very dense vegetation areas which were also found in high-sloped areas experienced high soil erosion rates. The erosion rate increases even in areas that have experienced an increase in vegetation cover. This is because these areas are also found in high-sloped areas. The slope factor superseded the ability of vegetation cover to protect against soil loss. In conclusion, the change in land cover has significantly increased soil erosion in the Awach Kibuon Sub-basin, however, the slope factor also accelerated soil loss in the basin. Therefore, a holistic approach that combines promoting vegetation cover with land management techniques like terracing and drainage channels is crucial for mitigating soil degradation and water sedimentation in sub-basin.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem supply service intensity in China: Patterns, drivers, and implications for sustainable development

With the steady development of global economy and the rapid increase of population, it is of great significance to quantify the supply capacity of ecosystem services and reveal its driving factors for sustainable development. We quantify the ecosystem supply service intensity (ESSI) using multiple sources of natural and cultural data from 2000 to 2020. We then jointly analyze this data with the information entropy of the land to obtain the temporal and spatial evolution law of ESSI under multiple scales in China. At the same time, according to the spatial distribution of ESSI in China, the concept of China's ecosystem supply service intensity development equilibrium line (ESSIL) is innovatively put forward. The results show that the spatial distribution pattern of China's ESSI is symmetrical with the ESSIL which is nearly orthogonal to Hu Huanyong line. Because of the different regional development policies, different regions with different economic levels have different driving effects on land change. Furthermore, due to the country's large size, the primary ESSI drivers vary greatly throughout its various regions. The assessment of the ESSI changes in China from multi-scale, combined with the effects of land cover change, climate and human activities, and put forward a new pattern distribution mode of ESSI in China, which provides a new perspective for formulating ecologically sustainable development strategies in large-scale areas.

A distributed modeling approach to water balance implications from changing land cover dynamics in permafrost environments

There is 78 % permafrost and seasonal frozen soil in the Yangtze River’s Source Region (SRYR), which is situated in the middle of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Three distinct scenarios were developed in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model the effects of land cover change (LCC) on various water balance components. Discharge and percolation of groundwater have decreased by mid-December. This demonstrates the seasonal contributions of subsurface water, which diminish when soil freezes. During winter, when surface water inputs are low, groundwater storage becomes even more critical to ensure water supply due to this periodic trend. An impermeable layer underneath the active layer thickness decreases GWQ and PERC in LCC + permafrost scenario. The water transport and storage phase reached a critical point in August when precipitation, permafrost thawing, and snowmelt caused LATQ to surge. To prevent waterlogging and save water for dry periods, it is necessary to control this peak flow phase. Hydrological processes, permafrost dynamics, and land cover changes in the SRYR are difficult, according to the data. These interactions enhance water circulation throughout the year, recharge of groundwater supplies, surface runoff, and lateral flow. For the region’s water resource management to be effective in sustaining ecohydrology, ensuring appropriate water storage, and alleviating freshwater scarcity, these dynamics must be considered.

Assessment of the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change on the Surface Runoff of Hadejia River System, Kano, Nigeria

Land use and land cover changes, mostly driven by anthropogenic activities, affect the processes of the water cycle. The impacts of land use (LU) and land cover (LC) changes between 1995 and 2015 on the surface runoff of the Hadejia River System (HRS) were investigated. The LULC changes obtained through re-classifications of selected Landsat satellite images and their effects on runoff peak discharges and volumes were assessed using selected hydrologic models for runoff generation and routing available within the HEC-HMS. Physically-based parameters of the models were estimated from the LULC change maps together with a digital elevation model and soil datasets of the basin. The simulated flows from the 90 sub-catchments were routed to the basin outlet afterwards to obtain the accrued effects in the entire river basin. Model results obtained generally revealed significant and varying increases in the runoff peak discharges and volumes within some sub-basins in the whole catchment, though the change was not significant at the basin outlet. In the sub-catchments within Kano and Jigawa states, increase between 15-20% and 10-15% were observed in the peak discharge respectively. These are the areas with the highest increase in agricultural activities and urbanization within the whole catchment. In the entire basin, however, the flood peak discharges and volumes increased by at least 3.57% and 8.18% respectively. From these results, the study concludes that changes were more pronounced in Kano and Jigawa states due to the increase of urbanization and farming activities in those areas, leading to reduction of infiltration and hence, increase in surface runoff. The study successfully outlined the hydrological consequences of land cover changes, emphasizing the importance of sustainable land use and catchment management strategies. Hence, integration of remote sensing, GIS, and the hydrological model (HEC-HMS) can be used to solve hydrological problems in a river basin.

Quantifying the Impacts of Land-Cover Change on the Hydrologic Response to Hurricane Ida in the Lower Mississippi River Basin

Abstract The Lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) has experienced significant changes in land cover and is one of the most vulnerable regions to hurricanes in the United States. Here, we study the impacts of land-cover change on the hydrologic response to Hurricane Ida in LMRB. By using an integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model, Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model coupled with the three-dimensional ParFlow subsurface flow model (ELM-ParFlow), we simulate the effects of land-cover change on the flood volume and peak timing induced by rainfall from Hurricane Ida. The results show that land-cover changes from 1850 to 2015, which resulted in a smoother surface and less vegetation, exacerbated both flood peak time and volume induced by Hurricane Ida. The effects of land-cover changes can be decomposed into two mechanisms: a smoother surface routes more water faster to a watershed outlet and less vegetation allows more water to contribute to surface runoff. By comparing scenarios in which the two mechanisms were isolated, we found that changes in soil moisture due to vegetation cover change have more dominant effects on floods in the southern part and changes in Manning’s coefficient have the largest effect on floods in the northern part of the LMRB. The study provides important insights into the complex relationship between land-use, land-cover, and hydrologic processes in coastal regions.

Converging Findings of Climate Models and Satellite Observations on the Positive Impact of European Forests on Cloud Cover

AbstractAlthough afforestation is a potential strategy to mitigate climate change by sequestering carbon, its potential biophysical effects on climate, such as regulating surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and energy balance, have not been fully incorporated into climate change mitigation strategies. This is partly due to the challenges associated with modeling the complex bidirectional interactions between vegetation and climate. In this study, we assess the impact of afforestation on low cloud cover using a regional climate model (RCM) and Earth observation data, applying a space‐for‐time approach to overcome limitations that may arise from comparing satellite and RCM results, such as different background climate conditions or different extents of land cover change. Our results show a consistent increase in low cloud cover in Europe due to afforestation in both datasets (3.71% and 3.56% on average, respectively), but the magnitude and direction of this effect depend on various factors, including location, seasonality, and forest type. These results suggest that afforestation can have important feedbacks on the climate system, and that its biophysical effects must be considered in climate change mitigation strategies. Furthermore, we emphasize the role of the modeling community in developing accurate and reliable approaches to assess the biophysical effects of land cover change on climate.

The Effect of Land Cover Change on Urban Heat Island Phenomenon Based on Remote Sensing in Probolinggo City

Probolinggo City is located in East Java Province, Indonesia. Based on BPS data for the City of Probolinggo in 2023, it shows an increase in population growth rate of 1.7% annually. The development of the number and increase in the activity of the population of Probolinggo City certainly affects the increase in the number of built-up areas to meet human needs. An increase in the number of built-up land has led to changes in the environment and urban land use, characterized by declining air quality and global warming due to the increasing phenomenon of Urban Heat Island (UHI). This research was conducted to determine the spatial distribution of surface temperature and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon and the effect of land cover on the UHI phenomenon. The research was conducted using UHI analysis using the Landsat 8 OLI remote sensing approach to obtain surface temperature values and high-resolution aerial photographs through data extraction. Based on the data processing results carried out over five years in 2013, 2017, and 2022, it is known that high and very high temperatures dominate the surface temperature of Probolinggo City. In addition, there is an effect of land cover on surface temperature based on the results of a simple linear regression analysis.

Impacts of land cover changes on dust emissions in northern China (2000–2020)

AbstractLand cover is a key factor affecting dust emissions. Substantial changes in land cover have occurred due to human activities and climate change in northern China. However, the extent to which these changes influence dust emissions is still controversial. Here, we explored the specific impact of land use type transformation on dust emissions between 2000 and 2020 by using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) from the perspective of land cover changes. Two scenarios were set up and compared to quantify this impact. One scenario was using the land cover data in 2000, and the other scenario was to use the land cover data in 2020. Both scenarios were driven by the initial meteorological conditions in 2020. Results indicated that the land cover changes between 2000 and 2020 reduced dust emissions in northern China, but the weakened intensity showed obvious spatial differences. Different land use conversion types had significant differences in their impact on dust emissions. Transforming bare areas to water bodies can reduce dust emissions by up to −3.62 g m−2 year−1. This is followed by the change from bare areas to sparse vegetation areas, which can decrease dust emissions by −2.9 g m−2 year−1, and then by the conversion from bare areas to cropland, with a reduction of −2.57 g m−2 year−1. These findings can offer methodologies and data support for the quantitative evaluation of the effects of land cover changes on dust emissions. They can also serve as a reference for environmental management when formulating land use policies.

Monitoring the Expansion of Unplanned Urbanization and its Impact on Climate Change based on Google Earth Engine Service, a Case Study of Baghdad / Iraq

The earth's surface comprises different kinds of land cover, water resources, and soil, which create environmental factors for varied animals, plants, and humans. Knowing the significant effects of land cover is crucial for long-term development, climate change modeling, and preserving ecosystems. In this research, the Google Earth Engine platform and freely available Landsat imagery were used to investigate the impact of the expansion and degradation in urbanized areas, watersheds, and vegetative cover on the land surface temperature in Baghdad from 2004 to 2021. Land cover indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Water Index, and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDVI, NDWI, and NDBI) were determined to examine the effects of land cover changes. In addition, the land surface temperature was calculated to assess urbanization expansion's impact on Baghdad's climate warming. The results showed a drastic decrease in vegetative cover and green land, on the other hand, a significant expansion in urbanized areas. Hence, from 2004 to 2021, the urbanized areas and open land rose by 37% and 3%, respectively, while the vegetative cover decreased by 41%. The maximum land surface temperature has risen 4° C, and the minimum land surface temperature has risen 2.5°C.

Pengaruh Perubahan Tutupan Lahan Terhadap Karakteristik Hidrograf Banjir (Studi Kasus Bendungan Jragung)

Demak and Grobogan Regency are areas where a flood frequently happen during the rainy season. PUPR Ministry built the Jragung Dam for flood management which was planned using the 1998 - 2017 data series. The Jragung River discharge tends to experience an increase in a period of 10 years, with one possible cause is changes in land cover. Therefore, to determine the effect of land cover changes on the flood hydrograph characteristics of Jragung Reservoir, a flood tracking analysis was carried out in Jragung Reservoir. This study use the HEC-HMS program with the Soil Conservation Service (SCS - CN) method. and the land cover change index used was curve number and impervious. The results of the analysis show that there is a change in land cover in the Jragung Reservoir catchment area of 2,5%, which is dominated by an increase in residential area of 55,6%. As a result of conducted, the Jragung Reservoir catchment all n-year return periods flood discharge has increased from design year (2017) and latest year (2022). QPMF increased from 1586,1 m3/s to 1689,6 m3/s which resulted in an increase in the Jragung Reservoir flood water level from planned QPMF in +118,6 m become +118,7 m.

Effects of Land Cover Changes and Rainfall Variation on the Landslide Size–Frequency Distribution in a Mountainous Region of Western Japan

This study investigated the size–frequency distribution of 512 landslides triggered by heavy rain in July 2018 on Omishima Island, western Japan. Since the island has undergone rapid land use and land cover changes in recent decades, this study statistically examined the impact of past land cover changes on the shape of, and local variability in, the size–frequency distribution using the inverse gamma model. The possible influence of rainfall conditions was also examined. The landslides were classified based on the severity of anthropogenic disturbance and rainfall using a 56-year (1962–2018) land cover trajectory map and hourly rainfall distribution data. The results indicated that the land cover change (mainly forest conversion into farmland and its abandonment) affected the size and frequency of landslides that occurred decades after the disturbance. Although all landslide groups had similar small rollovers (location of probability peak; 0.042–0.075 × 10−3 km2), the scaling exponents of the negative power-law decay were lower for landslides in secondary forest and newly developed farmland (ρ = 1.084–1.231) than in old forest and farmland (ρ = 2.504–2.611). This difference is considered significant compared to general exponent values (ρ = 2.30 ± 0.56), suggesting that farmland development after 1962 caused widespread slope instability, leading to an increase in the proportion of large landslides. By contrast, no clear correlations with rainfall intensity were found, primarily due to complex localised variations in rainfall conditions.

Investigation and Evaluation of Land Use–Land Cover Change Effects on Current and Future Flood Susceptibility

Investigation and Evaluation of Land Use–Land Cover Change Effects on Current and Future Flood Susceptibility

Climate and vegetation collectively drive soil respiration in montane forest-grassland landscapes of the southern Western Ghats, India

Abstract CO2 release rates from soils via soil respiration play an important role in the carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems. Though the roles of soil temperature and moisture on soil respiration are well recognised, less is known about how their effects vary across different land-cover types. This study looked at the interactive effects of land-cover change and microclimate on temporal patterns of soil respiration in a montane forest-grassland-plantation mosaic in a highly diverse but climatically sensitive ecosystem in the tropical Western Ghats of India. Across all vegetation types, soil respiration rates were highest during south-west monsoon (June–October), when root growth, litter decomposition and microbial activity are relatively high and were lowest during the summer. Among vegetation types, soil respiration rates were higher in grasslands compared to non-native pine plantations, whereas that of forest and invasive wattle (Acacia mearnsii) plantations were intermediate between grasslands and pine plantations. The decline in respiration rates following conversion from grasslands to pine plantations could be due to relatively lower microbial activity, soil temperatures and, subsequently, slower litter decomposition. In addition, the sensitivity of soil respiration to changes in temperature and moisture differed between different vegetation types. Across all vegetation types, respiration was largely insensitive to changes in soil temperature when moisture levels were low. However, when soil moisture levels were high, respiration increased with temperature in grassland and wattle patches, decreased in the case of pine plantations and remained largely unchanged in shola forests. Our results suggest that changes in aboveground vegetation type can significantly affect soil C cycling even in the absence of any underlying differences in soil type.

Changing land cover: Clustering of agents per moral responsibility and culpability

Are all humans morally responsible and deserving of blame for land cover change? Land cover change research has yet to provide an answer to this moral question. The purpose of this study was to answer the moral question of land cover change by conducting a land cover change analysis in six sampled metropolitan/municipal/districts [MMDAs] in Ghana, identify the agents of land cover change, and cluster the agents based on their moral responsibility and culpability. Supervised classification of Landsat images from 1987 to 2022 for the six MMDAs indicated that farmlands increased the most in area size although one-third of the respondents (agents) were into farming and agro-processing occupation. Based on respondants actions, knowledge and norms they were clustered into seven groups (“responsible and culpable”-25.1 %, “responsible due to culpable ignorance”-17.7 %, “responsible although lack knowledge”-14.1 %, “responsible due to weak norms”-9.1 %, “not responsible”-11 % and “not responsible due to culpable ignorance”-9.3 %) using Mason moral responsibility and culpability decision tree. The large number of respondants found to be responsible and culpable was because they had less knowledge about the consequences of land cover change, which limited their participation in environmental protection initiatives. The findings give sufficient evidence to promote educational programs for responsible land cover conservation and alternative livelihoods programs in Ghana.

A categorical quantification of the effects of vegetation restorations on streamflow variations in the Loess Plateau, China

The Loess Plateau is the world’s largest and most typical loess accumulation area, and its recent change in vegetation cover has had significant hydrological effects. Understanding the impact of vegetation restorations in this region is essential for local water security and the sustainable development of Loess regions. This investigation concentrates on the upper basin of the Beiluo River, a representative watershed on the Loess Plateau. Using the coupled application of the hydrological model and the DFI baseflow segmentation method, as well as the analysis of extreme land cover transfer scenarios, the impact of typical land cover transition categories on the watershed runoff process on the Loess Plateau is systematically evaluated. Depending on the change in runoff introduced by the unit transfer area, a rapid estimation method for river runoff in the Loess Plateau is proposed. The results show that base flow contributes considerably to river runoff on the Loess Plateau, and the SWAT-DFI coupling has substantially improved the hydrological model’s simulation accuracy during the dry season. From 1985 to 2020, the primary land cover transfer categories in the upper basin of the Beiluo River were agricultural land to the forest (AL2F), agricultural land to pasture (AL2P), pasture to agricultural land (P2AL), and pasture to the forest (P2F), of which P2AL is the only form of transfer that increases discharge. From a spatial perspective, the intensity of the impact of AL2F and AL2P on runoff is greater in the upstream region than in the downstream region. From the standpoint of land cover transfer type, the intensity of runoff depth change caused by transfer per unit area varied, which was primarily manifested by the fact that the impact of AL2F was greater than that of AL2P, both of which were greater than that of P2AL and significantly higher than that of P2F. The proposed rapid estimation method based on land cover transfer equivalents can rapidly estimate river runoff changes and spatial distribution under various land cover change conditions, which is critical for understanding the hydrological effects of vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau. The quantified effect of land cover change on runoff and the proposed quick estimation approach can serve as benchmarks for water security and ecological restoration on the Loess Plateau and other loess accumulation areas around the globe.

The Effect of Land Cover Changes on Surface Runoff Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool in the Bila Watershed

Changes in land cover have a negative impact on land and water resources that occur in the watershed area. This study aims to analyze changes in land cover in 2016 and 2021 and their effects on surface runoff in the Bila Watershed. Analysis of land cover change using the Geographic Information System approach, and then analyzing the effect of land cover change on surface runoff from the results of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model. The results showed that the land cover of Bila Watershed when experiencing the highest change was in shrubs of 680.29 ha, dryland agriculture covering an area of 520.99 ha and secondary dryland forest covering an area of 155.76 ha. The effect of land cover changes on surface runoff varies. The highest increase in surface runoff was in shrub cover change to agricultural land and open land while the lowest increase in surface runoff was with changes in primary dryland forest land cover to secondary dryland forest. The surface runoff coefficient of the Bila Watershed in 2016 was included in the good category with a value of 0.16 while in 2021 was included in the moderate category with a value of 0.26.

Downscaling future land cover scenarios for freshwater fish distribution models under climate change

The decreasing freshwater biodiversity trend can be attributed to anthropogenic impacts in terms of climate and land cover change. For targeted conservation efforts, mapping and understanding the distribution of freshwater organisms consists of an important knowledge gap. Spatial modelling approaches offer valuable insights into present-day biodiversity patterns and potential future trajectories, however methodological constraints still hamper the applicability of addressing future climate and land cover change concurrently in one modelling workflow. Compared to climate-only projections, spatially explicit and high-resolution land cover projections have seen less attention, and the lack of such data challenges modelling efforts to predict the possible future effects of land cover change especially on freshwater organisms. Here we demonstrate a workflow where we downscale future land cover projection data from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for South America at 1 km2 spatial resolution, to then predict the future habitat suitability patterns of the Colombian fish fauna. Specifically, we show how the land cover data can be converted from plain numbers into a spatially explicit representation for multiple SSP scenarios and at high spatial resolution, employing freshwater-specific downscaling aspects when spatially allocating the land cover category grid cells, and how it can be fitted into an ensemble species distribution modelling approach of 1209 fish species. Our toolbox consists of a suite of open-source tools, including Dinamica EGO, R, GRASS GIS and GDAL, and we provide the code and necessary steps to reproduce the workflow for other study areas. We highlight the feasibility of the downscaling, but also underline the potential challenges regarding the spatial scale and the size of the spatial units of analysis.