US Economy Research Articles

The growth contribution of colonial Indian railways in comparative perspective

AbstractRailways were an important driver of global economic growth in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Whilst their role is well documented in industrial economies, we know less about their macro‐economic impact in developing countries. In this paper, we first estimate the aggregate growth impact of Indian railways, one of the largest networks in the world in the early twentieth century. Then, we compare their impact in India to four emerging Latin American economies (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Uruguay) and the Cape colony. Using growth accounting techniques common to the cross‐country estimates, we argue that the aggregate growth impact of Indian railways was significant, increasing Indian gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by 13.5 per cent by 1912. We also find that the growth impact of Indian railways was similar to Brazil and Mexico, but smaller than Argentina and the Cape. Compared with the latter, India had a smaller size of railway freight revenues in the economy and lower wages to fares leading to lower passenger time savings. Railways were the most important infrastructure driver of economic growth in India during the first era of globalization from 1860 to 1912, but they contributed less than in richer and more dynamic developing economies.

Export competition between China and Latin America and the Caribbean in the United States market

AbstractWe investigate export competition between China and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in the United States market between 2002 and 2022. Using a sample of 33 exporters and 10‐digit Harmonised Tariff Schedule (HS) level trade data, we estimate a structural gravity model using an instrumental variable constructed from Chinese exports to eight other industrialised nations. We use a first‐order Taylor‐series expansion à la Baier and Bergstrand (Journal of International Economics, 2009a, 77, 77) to approximate the multilateral price terms pointed out by Anderson and Van Wincoop (American Economic Review, 2003, 93, Article 1). The results show that the impact of Chinese exports on United States imports from LAC is negative and statistically significant across several model specifications, levels of aggregation, and sectors. A percentage increase in imports from China decreased imports from LAC by ca. 0.75%. The displacement effect is ca. 0.32 for manufacturing products, 1.01 for resource‐based products, 1.33 when estimated only for South America, 0.25 for the Caribbean, and not significant for Central America.

Analytical utility of periodizing capitalist history: Neoliberalism, social welfare spending, and income inequality in the United States

This article critiques policies aimed at income redistribution within the framework of Marx’s critique of political economy. The ‘Neoliberal’ characterization of capitalist history, the tendency to divide capitalism into distinct sub-periods or phases, continues to play a significant role for describing changes to social policy in the United States. Prominent academics and public intellectuals continue to hold spirited debates over whether or not welfare spending in the United States has become less generous over the years, owing to increasing ‘neoliberalization’ of the American economy. This mixed-methods research paper analyzes trends in social welfare spending and income inequality for the United States. To supplement the analysis, a novel dataset on Distributional National Accounts from the Bureau of Economic Analysis is also analyzed. Evidence suggests previous concerns in the literature are unfounded and are not borne out by empirical evidence.

A Closer look into recent economy, Whether or not Vietnam faces a 10-year crisis?

From 2018, the global economy began to grow strongly and synchronously, but as 2018 passed, the development momentum has become slower, faded, along with biased growing trends. The US economy has accelerated thanks to fiscal stimulus policies early this year, while the economy of the EU, Britain, Japan and China began to weaken. These differences will continue to exist in 2019 and Vietnam is not excluded. This study is a closer look into Vietnamese economy from 2007 up to now & prediction to the upcoming period. Objective: The present study aims at giving predictions & recommendations to sustain Vietnam’s economy in the next years based on analyzing multiple economic indicators such as: economic growth rate, inflation, unemployment rate, import and export throughout the period 2007 – 2018. Material and methods: General information about the Vietnam’s economy & crisis trend was collected from the documentation provided by National Financial Committee as well as economic websites. Then, the authors analyzed & made comparisons between years to years & created tables to show them clearly. Secondary data, such as theoretical frameworks and literature, were obtained from reference books, scientific books, scientific articles and peer reviewed journals. Results: The economy since 2007 has been so volatile: the economic growth rate fell erratically, unpredictably; unemployment & inflation rate are still really big problems while import, export & investment have prospered gradually. Conclusions: Vietnam's economy is on a good & rapid growth path, with many economic advantages. However, in essence, Vietnam is still a young economy, so we need to be well prepared to cope with major economic fluctuations that may occur, possibly next year – the beginning year of the 10-year crisis period.

Forecasting Consumer Price Index with Federal Open Market Committee Sentiment Index

AbstractThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a component of the Federal Reserve System responsible for overseeing open market operations. The FOMC meets roughly eight or more times per year to assess the economy of the United States. After each meeting, the FOMC releases a statement to the press outlining its assessment of the US economy and its monetary policy stance. The sentiment of these statements may have an influence on the US economy and financial markets. Using sentiment and correlational analyses, this research examines how the sentiment of these statements affects the US economy and financial markets by analyzing how FOMC statement sentiment is correlated with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), and the Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI). We find evidence to suggest that there is a moderate negative correlation between an FOMC statement's sentiment and the US City Average CPI value associated with the month before and the month after the statement's release. We also find that there is no evidence to suggest there exists a correlation between an FOMC statement's sentiment and the NFCI value associated with the week before or the week after the statement's release. However, we do find evidence to suggest that there is a moderate negative correlation between an FOMC statement's sentiment and the ANFCI value associated with the week before and the week after the statement's release. We also found that out of the three models we tested (linear regression, vine copula regression, and Gaussian copula regression), the Gaussian copula regression model performs the best when forecasting the CPI and the ANFCI. Additionally, we find that when forecasting CPI values, the models that include FOMC statement sentiment are more accurate than the models that exclude FOMC statement sentiment.

The US Economy and the Election

The US Economy and the Election

Frontline Perspectives on Buprenorphine for the Management of Chronic Pain.

Due to the prevalence of chronic pain and high-impact chronic pain in the US, a significant percentage of the population is prescribed opioids for pain management. However, opioid use disorder is associated with reduced quality of life, along with fatal opioid overdoses, and is a significant burden on the US economy. Considering the clinical needs of patients with intractable chronic pain and the potential harms associated with prescribed and illicit opioids in our communities, having a deep understanding of current treatment options, supporting evidence, and clinical practice guidelines is essential for optimizing treatment selections. Buprenorphine is a Schedule III opioid with a unique mechanism of action, allowing effective and long-lasting analgesia at microgram doses with fewer negative side effects and adverse events, including respiratory depression, when compared with other immediate-release, long-acting, and extended-release prescription opioids. Due to its relatively lower risk for overdose and misuse, buprenorphine was recently added to the Clinical Practice Guideline for the Use of Opioids in the Management of Chronic Pain as a first-line treatment for chronic pain managed by opioids by the US Departments of Defense and Veterans Affairs, and the Department of Health and Human Services recommends that buprenorphine be made available for the treatment of chronic pain. In this narrative review, we discuss the different buprenorphine formulations, clinical efficacy, advantages for older adults and other special populations, clinical practice guideline recommendations, and payer considerations of buprenorphine and suggest that buprenorphine products approved for chronic pain should be considered as a first-line treatment for this indication.

China’s Economic and Currency Management Will Make It Difficult to Dethrone the Dollar

This paper focuses on the rivalry between the US and China, with particular emphasis on the renminbi (RMB) and the US dollar. It examines three related points. First, for China to upend the dominance of the US dollar and replace it, even partially, with the RMB would require major—and probably disruptive— changes in China’s financial markets and monetary policies. Is the Chinese government willing to take those steps? Second, can China overtake the US economy and provide another incentive for international investors to start switching to the RMB? And third, is it still a question of whether de-dollarisation is happening, or has the question moved on to asking how fast the RMB can rival the US dollar in the 21st century? Finally, the paper examines China’s economic problems, which are set to damage the RMB’s reputation and progress as a reserve currency.

Nearly collinear robust procedures for 2SLS estimation

Stata’s two-stage least-squares (2SLS) computation procedures are sensitive to near collinearity among regressors, allowing situations in which reported results depend upon factors as irrelevant as the order of the data and variables. This article illustrates this claim with the public-use data of Oreopoulos (2006, American Economic Review 96: 152–175), where the instrumented coefficient estimate can be made to vary between 0.012 and 30.0 in one specification by permuting the order of the variables. Different methods for improving the accuracy of 2SLS estimates are reviewed, and a Stata command for collinearity-robust 2SLS estimation is provided.

How do conflicts affect energy security risk? Evidence from major energy-consuming economies

Conflicts, whether internal or external, have the ability to increase energy security risks. Given this background, this paper investigates the impact of conflicts on energy security risks in the panel data of 40 major energy-consuming economies from Asia, America, Europe, and Africa by employing the Cross-sectionally augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag model from 1996 to 2021. The results show that the risks to long-term energy security fall with the rise in internal and external conflicts globally and in Asian, American, European, and African economies. However, all regions see decreased long-term energy security risk due to rising financial development. At the same time, national income mitigates energy security risks globally and in American countries. Technological innovation reduces long-term energy security risks globally in Asian, American, and European economies. Conversely, only gross domestic product and technological innovation cause the energy security risks to fall globally and in American economies.

한국과 미국의 대표 경제 학술지에 대한 토픽분석

American Economic Review in the United States and the Korean Journal of Economic Studies in Korea are both leading academic journals representing their respective countries in the field of economics. Founded in 1911 by the American Economic Association, American Economic Review, the monthly published journal is renowned as the most prestigious journal in the field of economics. On the other hand, the Korean Journal of Economic Studies, initiated by the Korean Economic Association in 1953, holds the longest tradition and authority in the field of economics in South Korea. In this study, we analyzed recent economic trends by examining abstracts published in the past three years, using these two countries' representative economic journals. The analysis involved web scraping 53 Korean abstracts (the Korean Journal of Economic Studies) and 320 English abstracts (American Economic Review) from 2021 to 2023, acquired from the online journal websites of both countries. To facilitate the interpretation of topic analysis, we applied selected topic-specific association rules to derive more refined insights. The results of the analysis revealed that the Korean journal encompasses seven topics, whereas the American journal covers five topics. The interpretation of these topics indicated that household income and regional economic themes are prevalent in the Korean Journal of Economic Studies, while topics related to the labor market and general equilibrium models are prominent in the American Economic Review.

Reviewing big data's role in the digital economy: USA and Africa focus

In the dynamic landscape of the digital economy, the integration and utilization of Big Data have emerged as pivotal factors influencing economic growth and innovation. This paper undertakes a comprehensive review of the contrasting roles that Big Data plays in shaping the digital economies of the United States and Africa. By examining the unique socio-economic contexts and infrastructural landscapes of these regions, the study seeks to shed light on the divergent trajectories of Big Data adoption and its impact on economic development. In the context of the United States, where a mature digital infrastructure prevails, Big Data has become a linchpin for innovation, competitiveness, and economic resilience. The paper delves into specific industries, such as technology, finance, and healthcare, to elucidate how Big Data analytics is leveraged to drive efficiency, inform decision-making, and foster disruptive advancements. The study extends beyond the corporate sector to explore the implications of Big Data on policy formulation and governance. Conversely, the study shifts its focus to Africa, a region characterized by diverse economic landscapes and varying degrees of technological development. The analysis explores the challenges and opportunities posed by Big Data adoption in Africa, highlighting the potential for leapfrogging traditional development stages through strategic data-driven initiatives. Additionally, the paper addresses issues related to data privacy, security, and the need for collaborative efforts to bridge the digital divide. Ultimately, this comparative review aims to contribute to a nuanced understanding of the role of Big Data in shaping the digital economies of the USA and Africa. By delineating the divergent trajectories, challenges, and opportunities, the study provides a foundation for informed policy recommendations, fostering inclusive and sustainable economic development in the digital age.

Does the Minimum Wage Affect Wage Inequality? A Study for the Six Largest Latin American Economies

Minimum wage (MW) policies are widespread in the developing world and yet their effects are still unclear. In this paper we explore the effect of national MW policies in Latin America’s six largest economies by exploiting the heterogeneity in the bite of the national minimum wage across local labor markets and over time. We find evidence that the MW has a compression effect on the wage distribution of formal workers. The effect was particularly large during the 2000s, a decade of sustained growth and strong labor markets. In contrast, the effect seems to vanish in the 2010s, a decade of much weaker labor markets. We also find suggestive evidence of a lighthouse effect: the MW seems to have an equalizing effect also on the wage distribution of informal workers.

The aggregate and distributional effects of fiscal stimuli

This paper compares the aggregate and distributional effects of three fiscal policy instruments: government expenditures, unemployment benefits, and transfers. To this end, the canonical model of frictional labor market is embedded into an otherwise standard incomplete markets framework where firms face price-adjustment costs. The model calibrated to match the moments characterizing the US economy successfully replicates the empirical distributions of households across: disposable income, consumption expenditures and net worth. The analysis quantifies the aggregate and distributional responses to changes in government expenditures, unemployment benefits, and transfers. Moreover, the stabilizing role of the analyzed fiscal measures is evaluated.

Volatility spillovers among leading cryptocurrencies and US energy and technology companies

This study investigates volatility spillovers and network connectedness among four cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and BNB coin), four energy companies (Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Nextera Energy), and four mega-technology companies (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon) in the US. We analyze data for the period November 15, 2017–October 28, 2022 using methodologies in Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28(1):57–66, 2012) and Baruník and Křehlík (J Financ Economet 16(2):271–296 2018). Our analysis shows the COVID-19 pandemic amplified volatility spillovers, thereby intensifying the impact of financial contagion between markets. This finding indicates the impact of the pandemic on the US economy heightened risk transmission across markets. Moreover, we show that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Chevron, ConocoPhilips, Apple, and Microsoft are net volatility transmitters, while Tether, BNB, Exxon Mobil, Nextera Energy, Alphabet, and Amazon are net receivers Our results suggest that short-term volatility spillovers outweigh medium- and long-term spillovers, and that investors should be more concerned about short-term repercussions because they do not have enough time to act quickly to protect themselves from market risks when the US market is affected. Furthermore, in contrast to short-term dynamics, longer term patterns display superior hedging efficiency. The net-pairwise directional spillovers show that Alphabet and Amazon are the highest shock transmitters to other companies. The findings in this study have implications for both investors and policymakers.

Total factor productivity, transitional dynamics and endogenous growth accounting for Latin America: Evidence from two centuries’ data

AbstractThis study investigates the sources of economic growth for Latin American economies. With two centuries of data and extended growth accounting methods, the study shows that poor total factor productivity (TFP) growth is the key to understanding Latin America's low economic growth relative to other economies. Using a functional form of TFP growth, based on second‐generation growth models, furthers analyses to show some empirical evidence for growth induced by R&D, knowledge spillovers, educational attainment and the distance to the frontier. However, the magnitude effect is very small and when compared to the OECD countries, the gap between the TFP growth generating factors is very substantial. An intricate policy structure should be implemented for Latin America to foster an environment that is conducive to aid permanent TFP and economic growth.

Real exchange rates and manufacturing exports in emerging economies: the role of sectoral heterogeneity and product complexity

The empirical evidence on the relationship between the real exchange rate and export performance in emerging economies is inconclusive. In this paper, we present evidence that one reason for this inconclusiveness is the use of real exchange rate (RER) measures that do not consider the heterogeneity between economic sectors. To this end, we calculate a unique sectoral bilateral RER index (SBRER) for 12 Latin American economies, which considers the variation of producer price differentials and bilateral nominal exchange rates across 21 manufacturing sectors and 38 trade partners between 2001–2018, and to estimate the effect of SBRER movements on manufacturing exports. The regression results show that the SBRER is a significant determinant of aggregate manufacturing exports, whereas the bilateral RER is not significant. Moreover, sectoral export elasticities indicate that mainly sectors with low levels of product complexity and, to a lesser extent, those of medium complexity are affected by RER movements. These findings show that it is important to consider sectoral heterogeneity when estimating RER export elasticities from a macroeconomic perspective.

Untold stories of African American women entrepreneurs: research-based strategies for becoming one's own boss

PurposeThe purpose of this research was to empirically examine the career transitions of mid-career African American women leaving traditional careers for entrepreneurship. The authors illustrate how transition theory and effectuation principles ameliorate an African American woman's transition to entrepreneurship.Design/methodology/approachThe authors conducted semi-structured interviews with nine African American woman entrepreneurs. The data collected were evaluated through the lens of transition theory and effectuation theory.FindingsThe study results show that despite being the chief officer, many African American women still face inequalities when negotiating business deals, interacting with partners and when seeking capital for their business. Effectuation theory partially supports an African American woman's career transition to entrepreneurship, but the theory does not fully address the unique experiences of this demographic.Research limitations/implicationsThe results of this study reveal that effectuation principles do not fully explain the entrepreneurial career transition experiences of African American women. Theory development and extensions of existing theories should consider the potential discriminatory practices that limit financial resources and strategic partnerships for African American women entrepreneurs. The authors also advocate for consideration of identities, particularly related to gender and race, as factors that contribute to entrepreneurial experiences.Practical implicationsThe study findings support the notion that each woman's situation will be different and unique, requiring aspiring African American woman entrepreneurs to assess their individual situation. Consistent access to minority-specific programs can help aspiring African American women entrepreneurs visualize her new identity and provide the support needed to enhance her career transition. There is no one-size-fits-all solution, so each woman will need to craft her own individualized plan.Social implicationsFindings from this study solidify the role of African American women entrepreneurs as business leaders with influence and direct impact on the US economy. Their success enables African American women to contribute to more inclusive societies through their service to diverse members of society. In addition, their attainment of success serves as a testimony to aspiring African American women that entrepreneurial success is achievable, encouraging more diversity in entrepreneurship.Originality/valueFew entrepreneurial studies exist on both women and racial minorities, resulting in a paucity of strategies to support African American women throughout their entrepreneurial journey. The results of this study revealed barriers which require specific strategies to address discriminatory lending practices and acceptance when forging new business relationships.

James Tobin on macroeconomic instability: an old Keynesian changes ground

From 1975 onwards, James Tobin changed his interpretation of the Keynesian case that active stabilisation policy is sometimes needed to restore full employment, offering a new interpretation that drew on Keynes’s General Theory and on Irving Fisher’s 1933 debt-deflation theory of depressions to argue that wage and price flexibility could be destabilizing. Like Hyman Minsky and Peter Howitt, Tobin stressed the previously underappreciated Chapter 19 of The General Theory, where Keynes argued that faster adjustment of prices and money wages could be destabilising. The basis of Keynesian macroeconomics was coordination failure and instability, not irrational money illusion or an arbitrary assumption of a fixed money wage.

Methodology for Monitoring Border Crossing Delays with Connected Vehicle Data: United States and Mexico Land Crossings Case Study

International trade is a critical part of the United States economy. Land border crossings between the United States and Mexico accounts for a large proportion of the USD 779 billion in trade between these two countries. Monitoring and managing the operations of these land border crossings is critical for ensuring efficient trade and providing appropriate security. This paper examines the opportunity to use connected vehicle data to monitor the travel time delay of passenger vehicles crossing the border for system level assessment across 26 border crossing locations over an analysis period of 25 days in August 2020. A sample size of 51,341 trips from the US to Mexico and 41,708 trips from Mexico to the US were used in this study. Furthermore, 97% trips to the US and 76% trips to Mexico experienced delays. The average delay was 34 min for trips to the US compared to only 2 min for trips to Mexico. In terms of the predictability of border crossing times, there was also substantial variation by direction. The interquartile range of vehicle delay from the US to Mexico was 2 min, while the interquartile range of delay for vehicles travelling from Mexico to the US was 46 min. Border crossings were also ranked using four performance metrics—trip counts, median delay, delayed trip counts and total delays in vehicle hours. Methods for summarizing delay trends by time of the day and day of the week to identify time windows of interest are also presented. Land border crossing operations have a significant influence on security and economic efficiency. We believe the techniques presented in this paper provide a scalable methodology for providing near real-time factual data on border crossing delays that provide important information for land border transport-managing stakeholders to make informed management decisions that balance security and economic efficiency.