Economic Stabilization Program Research Articles

The Escalation of Child Trafficking in Makassar: A Criminological Analysis

This research analyzes the factors contributing to escalating child trafficking activities in Makassar. This research uses an empirical legal research method with a criminology-based approach. All collected data is then qualitatively analyzed to describe the problem and answer the research objectives. The results show that the incidence of child trafficking in Makassar has escalated due to the complexity of multiple factors, including economic, community, education, social, gender inequality, technology, and law enforcement. Therefore, several recommendations can be proposed to the relevant stakeholders. First, the Makassar Municipal should consider implementing economic stabilization programs centered on protecting vulnerable children and families. Second, the development and enhancement of education quality should be prioritized, aiming to augment access to knowledge and awareness about children’s rights. Additionally, efforts to reduce poverty and promote gender equality must be intensified to prevent the exploitation of women and children. Third, the government and tech regulators must devise and implement policies to curb the misuse of social media in the context of child trafficking. Lastly, there must be an enhancement in law enforcement involving the optimization of the PPA Unit in its investigative role. Concurrently, inclusive and comprehensive legal reforms should be pursued to fortify the child protection system and mitigate the multifaceted factors exacerbating child trafficking in Makassar.

Influence of Economic Stabilization Program Implemented by International Monetary Fund on Economy

This paper investigates the type of economic crises, measures to manage the crises and influence of these measures on economy. Policies are intended to speed up the adjustment process of an economy from imbalance to long-run fullemployment equilibrium. After a scrutiny of the pros and cons of demand side policy and exchange rate policy, the inherent difficulties of achieving multiple objectives in an open economy is seen. The symptoms of crisis occurred in Mongolia would be referred to traditional balance of payment crisis and loan to be offered to Government by the IMF will be support the IMF’s program, which is based on combination of demand and exchange policy. Moreover, some measures of supply side policy will be implemented.

Прощание с эпохой: ИМЭМО накануне распада СССР

The article is dedicated to IMEMO activities at the final stage of the USSR (1990–1991), when two main phenomena manifested: the society’s disappointment in Perestroika, which evolved into a wave of anti-communism, and the rise of nationalist and separatist trends. Gorbachev's attempts to carry out profound economic transformation under conditions of the Soviet republics sovereignization failed, encountering resistance of national and regional elites which hankered for monopoly ownership and uncontrolled power in their regions. IMEMO took an active part in drafting of economic and political reforms in the country. This work was carried out both with the central power and the Russian government bodies. Representatives of IMEMO (V.A .Martynov, L.M. Grigoriev, etc.) participated in development of the economic stabilization program ("Program 500 days "). IMEMO experts analyzed economic and social problems of the USSR military-industrial complex conversion – switching over from military to peacetime production. IMEMO prepared a number of proposals on the reduction of strategic offensive arms, on cooperation with international economic organizations; recommendations on strengthening of regional and international security, on foreign policy of the Soviet republics, on possibilities to reduce Soviet military activities abroad, etc.

Desplazamiento forzado, niñez y adolescencia: escenarios en relación con su estabilización socioeconómica

Describing and analysing socio-economic stabilisation scenarios for populations which have been forcibly displaced paying special attention to the situation of children and adolescents. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) multi-criteria decision-making method developed by Professor Thomas Saaty was used through expert workshops, involving researchers, leaders of NGOs and displaced communities living in the city of Bucaramanga. The partial result of this research showed that some elderly adults from forcibly displaced communities preferred to adapt themselves to urban centres, rather than return to their places of origin, particularly when it came to protecting younger children and dealing with their welfare. The method's consistency index and consistency ratio came within the expected parameters. Government-promoted social and economic stabilisation programmes must be rethought regarding forcibly displaced populations, particularly when situations are envisaged involving the welfare of children and adolescents.

Lost in Translation: Interpreting the Failure of Privatisation in the Brazilian Electric Power Industry

AbstractDid Latin American privatisation policies fail because of flawed implementation of fundamentally sound policies or because privatisation policies were themselves seriously flawed? Using the Brazilian electric power reforms as a narrative tool, this paper examines the causal chain assumed by large-scale privatisation policies that were implemented as part of structural reform and adjustment programmes. The paper concludes that many privatisation policies and the economic stabilisation programmes within which they were embedded were not mutually reinforcing in the way that policymakers had expected, and that in their application much of what privatisation theories had claimed was lost in translation.

English Title Not Available [Turkish Title: TURKIYE iMALAT SANAYI URETIMI VE DIS TICARETININ YAPISI

In January 24, 1980, Turkey put in life a liberalization program, known as The Economic Stabilization and Structural Adaptation Program, which brought outward orientation to the Turkish Economy. Restructuring the economy towards the outward orientation to integrate with the world economy in the long run and, forming a production structure especially towards the export of manufacturing products are targeted with this program. In other words, a structural transformatian in manufacturing industry is aimed. This study examines how much this target is achieved during the period 1980-2001. In this direction, using ISIC Rev. 2 data, structures of manufacturing industry production and foreign trade are analyzed based on the technological level. Ratio analysis method is used in this study and the results are compared to the US Manufacturing Industry. Results from the analysis for the period 1980-2001 show that the Turkish Manufacturing Industry has been unable to attain at desired structural transformation. To be clear, it can be concluded that Turkey is a net exporter in law technology industries and net importer in medium and high technology industries, white the US is a net exporter in high technology industries.

Macroeconomic Stabilization and Pro-Poor Budgetary Policy in the Globalized Economy

This paper argues that from both efficiency (maintaining support for an economic reforms promising rapid economic growth) and equity viewpoints (shielding the poor from the worst effects of a downturn) it is important to append a pro-poor fiscal policy to an economic stabilization program. The paper outlines the basic contours of such a strategy and argues that although the fiscal deficit in many developing countries appears to be unsustainable, a policy package involving tax and expenditure reforms when the economy is not in crisis can help reduce the risk from high fiscal deficits. Furthermore, such tax and expenditure reforms can also be fine tuned to help the poor. The paper also discusses policy measures to shield the poor in anticipation of a downturn and also the contours of a pro-poor fiscal adjustment once it becomes necessary to have macroeconomic adjustment. Given the wide heterogeneity among developing countries, the paper makes policy prescriptions for specific contexts and countries. Finally, the paper considers some policy measures that can be taken at the international level to provide support to developing countries in their efforts to make pro-poor adjustment feasible.

The Estonian Currency Board: Its Introduction and Role in the Early Success of Estonia's Transition to a Market Economy

This paper reviews the history of the introduction of the Estonian kroon under a currency board arrangement. On June 20, 1992, Estonia became the first country from the former Soviet Union to abandon the Russian ruble and introduce its own currency. The paper looks at the factors behind this decision and discusses the implementation of the currency reform. It then assesses the economic impact of the reform and also compares Estonia`s experience with that of its Baltic neighbors. It concludes that although the currency board arrangement made an important contribution to the early success of Estonia`s economic stabilization and reform program the underlying financial and structural policies were crucial for that success.

Concurrent Elections, Discordant Results: Presidentialism, Federalism, and Governance in Brazil

Stumping for candidates is a thing of the past, it's a figure of speech. These days, if you advertise that you're going to vote for this or that candidate, it doesn't change anything. So Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso expressed his belief that his support would not help elect candidates for other offices in O Estado de Sao Paulo, August 3, 1998. In January 1999 Cardoso became the first Brazilian president to pass the presidential sash to himself. He won a smashing first-round reelection victory in October 1998, defeating his nearest rival by over 20 percent. The parties in his alliance also won sizable majorities in both houses of congress. By all rights, Cardoso's reelection ought to have rejuvenated his efforts to maintain Brazil's economic stabilization program (the Piano Real) and to pass extensive political reforms. On top of the prestige from his relatively easy victory, the International Monetary Fund agreed soon after the election to provide with U.S.$42 billion to give Cardoso extra political and economic breathing room to maneuver for reform. Superficially, Cardoso appeared to possess significant political capital at the start of his second term. However, Cardoso experienced no second honeymoon. To the contrary, his second term began as a nightmare. Within weeks of his inauguration, the real collapsed, losing half its value and raising fears of a return to Brazil's infamous days of hyperinflation; the country's foreign currency reserves were drained; two central bank presidents resigned in succession; the Brazilian stock markets went into a free-fall; and former president Itamar Franco, elected governor of the important state of Minas Gerais, effectively defaulted on the debts his state owed to domestic and international creditors. This last straw forced the central government to cover the debts in order to stave off the perception of a generalized government default. The New York Times soon concluded that despite Cardoso's victory Brazil is struggling against its worst financial crisis in years.' Moreover, as the largest economy in Latin America and the eighth largest in the world, Brazil's troubles reverberated throughout the region. Leery investors feared that Brazil's problems could unleash new turmoil or even precipitate a global financial meltdown.2 Brazil's economic crisis generated a political crisis, and after his inauguration Cardoso's political prestige quickly slipped with both voters and congress.3 Why was Cardoso's second honeymoon cut short so abruptly? While many fac-

Social security as an economic stabilization program

This paper analyzes the stabilizing properties of an unfunded social security system in an over-lapping generations model with cyclical equilibria. This provides a welfare rationale for a social security system independent of the windfall gained by the first generation, or social insurance arguments. An unfunded social security system redirects intergenerational resource transfers from private savings, which are subject to endogenous fluctuations, towards a public system with an implicit rate of return of unity. In an economy with a cycle of order 2, a planner with a limit-of-means social welfare function will completely stabilize the economy.

Challenges for Brazil’s food industry in the context of globalization and Mercosur consolidation

This paper examines how the Brazilian food industry has been heavily affected by several recent institutional and economic changes. The food industry, including the processing and retail sectors, is part of a broader agribusiness system that conditions corporations’ strategies, performance, and adoption of adequate governance structures. The Brazilian agroindustrialization process that preceded the formation of the sub-regional free-trade area (Mercosur) and economic liberalization influenced subsequent development of the agribusiness and food system in the Mercosur countries and their investment and trade links to countries outside Mercosur. The article emphasizes business strategies for coping with challenges and opportunities that have arisen from Mercosur integration, from economic stabilization programs and, more importantly, from a broad range of institutional changes such as trade liberalization, deregulation, and the friendlier treatment of foreign capital. These changes have together fostered the globalization process in the region and have stimulated different responses from large and small firms, all threatened by the new, competitive environment.

Democracy, credibility, and sound economics: The Israeli hyperinflation

The 1985 Israeli economic stabilization program provides a rare case of stable (as of late 1996) success under democratic auspices without major social disorder. Existing explanations for the success of the Israeli reforms overemphasize economics at the expense of politics. This paper analyzes the political causes of the early 1980s Israeli hyperinflation. The program's economic measures and performance are reviewed. The Israeli economic stabilization program succeeded because it was considered credible by the Israeli public. The social and political factors that contributed to the program's credibility are investigated and their importance is ranked. The applicability of the paper to other economic reforms under democratic auspices is highlighted and future research is outlined.

Transição econômica na Polônia: a relevância da experiência latino americana

ABSTRACT Shock therapy was used in Poland causing many problems. It is true that four years later the economy started to grow again, but the transition to the market economy took place with high unemployment rates and increasing social inequalities. Poland’s liberalization and economic stabilization program has a lot to do with similar programs experienced in Latin America and could be useful to Poland. In the short term, costs are similar to those of the Latin American experience. Even though stabilization was partially achieved, the social costs that took off were large, making the continuation of economic reform politically indigestible in the democratic context.

Zimbabwe's success story in education and health: will it weather economic structural adjustment?

The beginning of the 1980s saw the birth of Zimbabwe as a result of a protracted liberation war. It coincided with global interest in primary health care, the concept of universal primary school education and, unfortunately, moves towards economic stabilization and structural adjustment programmes. Economic structural adjustment was adopted by several sub Saharan African countries with dire consequences for the poor and vulnerable. Zimbabwe's commitment to social justice and to equitable distribution of resources demonstrated a practical move away from the culture of rhetoric so characteristic of many governments and non-governmental organisations and agencies. This commitment has been translated into impressive improvements in health and education. Current evidence shows that education has had a positive impact on health and related areas like contraceptive use, child mortality and the nutrition status of children. Conversely nutrition and health conditions among school children are important determinants of educational outcomes. Hitherto Zimbabwe's economy has been sufficiently strong to avoid excessive dependence on the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other foreign financial institutions. Unfortunately, however, the current economic recession together with economic structural adjustment programmes are beginning to have a negative impact on health and education. Will true synergism between health and education weather these structural problems? It seems that the people and government of Zimbabwe have the capacity and resolve to weather such a storm.

Democracy, economic crisis and the problem of governance: The case of Bolivia

This article examines the political context within which the Bolivian government of Victor Paz Estenssoro (1985–1989) launched, implemented, and sustained a draconian neoliberal economic stabilization program. The article argues that the key to the successful economic program was the political skill and leadership of President Paz, in particular, his ability to negotiate a political pact with the main opposition party. Finally, the article ponders the tensions and contradictions between neoliberal economic policies and the process of consolidating democracy in a context of extreme economic crisis.

Peasant participation and mobilization during economic crisis: The case of Costa Rica

During the three decades prior to the 1980s, the state-led development policies pursued by Costa Rica created a standard of living that was unique in Central America and among the most satisfactory in all of Latin America. However, the economic crisis of the early 1980s and the problems created by Costa Rica's foreign debt caused the nation's political and economic leaders to abandon the previous style of development and to the introduce neoliberal economic policies. The economic changes undertaken by Costa Rica in the 1980s were strongly supported by the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Among the social sectors most adversely affected by the opening to the international market were the small independent producers of basic grains and other agricultural crops primarily destined for the internal market. These peasant sectors were largely unorganized prior to the 1980s and they intensified their organizational efforts in direct response to what was viewed as the negative impact of the new economic policies. This article examines the economic crisis that engulfed Costa Rica in the early 1980s as well as the economic stabilization and structural adjustment programs that succeeded in easing the crisis and that will define the direction of development efforts in the 1990s. The bulk of the article investigates the attempts of the peasanty to organize and mobilize in order to influence the political system and to protect their economic interests. Costa Rica's principle peasant organizations are discussed and reasons are offered to explain the failure of peasant efforts to influence the formation of development policy.

Alternative Methods of Reimbursing Hospitals, and the Impact of Certificate-of-Need and Rate Regulation for the Hospital Sector

At present 94 percent of hospital revenues are received from third party insurance agencies, while 58 percent of these revenues come from various levels of government [17]. As third party insurance has grown so has medical expenditures in general, and hospital expenditures in particular. The former has grown from 4.5 percent of GNP in 1955 to 9 percent in 1980. Moreover, the fraction of medical expenditures devoted to hospital care has grown from 31 percent in 1950 to over 45 percent in 1980 [47]. The response by state and federal governments has been an effort to contain medical costs through direct regulation. In this paper we provide a systematic analysis of the effects of two common regulatory programs; state Certificate-of-need laws (CON) and rate regulation. The CON laws require that state regulatory agencies approve both the entry of new hospitals and the large capital expenditures by existing hospitals. By 1979, almost all states had enacted these laws; however, considerable variation in the specifics of CON regulation exists [22]. At the federal level, these CON laws have been supplemented by Section 1122 of the Social Security Act. Hospitals are now no longer reimbursed by the federal government if they have not received prior approval by the state regulatory agencies for capital expenditures in excess of $100,000. Together, if effective, these regulations limit the entry of new hospitals and the expansion of existing hospital facilities. Limits on hospital revenues were covered by the Economic Stabilization Program (ESP) from August, 1971 to April, 1974. Since 1974 several Blue Cross Insurance Plans and state agencies have introduced prospective reimbursement [25]. These programs reimburse hospitals on the basis of estimates of future costs; however, a wide variety of reimbursement schemes exist. Some third party insurance plans reimburse hospitals on a per case basis, others on a fee-for-service basis, and still others on a per diem basis [41, 102].' Together, if effective these regulations limit hospital reimbursement. In spite of the research into the effect of CON laws and rate regulation on the hospital sector, there are numerous conflicting empirical results. For example, although Coelen and

A Monetarist Model for Economic Stabilization

rji I. HE MONETARIST VIEW that changes in the money stock area primary determinant of changes in total spending, and should thereby be given major emphasis in economic stabilization programs, has been of growing interest in recent years. From the mid-1930’s to the mid-1960’s. monetary policy received little emphasis in economic stabilization policy. Presumed failure of monetary policy during the early years of the Great Depression, along with the development and general acceptance of Keynesian economics, resulted in a main emphasis on fiscal actions — Federal Government spending and taxing programs — in economic stabilization plans. Monetary policy, insofar as it received any attention, was generally expressed in terms of market rates of interest.

The political economy of stabilization: Commitment, capacity, and public response

Political pressures are generally recognized as important in determining success or failure of economic stabilization and adjustment programs. But there has been little comparative analysis of the politics of stabilization. This study examines the factors affecting (i) political leaders' commitment to stabilization measures (often called ‘political will’); (ii) governmental ability to implement stabilization measures; and (iii) the responses of key interest groups and the public at large to those measures. The study also discusses political implications of the design of programs and the attempted speed of stabilization, and sketches the tactics available to governments to manage political risk, including partial compensation, persuasion, diversion or obfuscation, and containment of protest. The discussion is based on case studies of stabilization efforts in five fairly poor, small, highly trade-dependent countries; Ghana in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and Zambia, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Jamaica in the late 1970s and early 1980s. A subsidiary theme within the broader discussion is the ways in which the political economy of stabilization may differ in such countries, as compared to larger, semi-industrialized economies.

The effect of discretionary price control decisions on equity values

Abstract The macro literature presents conflicting evidence on the effects of price controls. In this study, the fact that the macro-economic effect of wage and price controls is the aggregation of the micro-economic effects is used to implement a different approach to measure the effects of price controls. The effect of price controls is inferred from examining the impact of discretionary regulatory decisions on the equity values of individual firms during Phase II of Nixon's Economic Stabilization Program. The empirical results indicate that violators of the regulations incurred significant abnormal losses that were unrelated to the explicit penalties. This suggests that implicit penalties were imposed on offending firms. The analysis of price increase decisions provides weak evidence that these Price Commission decisions had an impact on equity values.