Economic Policy Reforms Research Articles

Suicide in China: The power of social and economic change

Suicide has ever been a challenging public health problem in China, and has accounted for approximately 17% of all suicide deaths across the world.1 With the rising economic levels and great social changes, a dramatic decline in suicide rates has been observed in China since the economic reform policy enacted dated back to 1970s.2–4 The underlying mechanisms of the rapid declines are complicated and cannot be fully explained by the suicide theories that are mainly originated from western cultures.

All that glitters is not gold: Do movie quality and contents influence box-office revenues in China?

Economic policy reform that started in China in early 1980s also affected its movie industry. Like other sectors, movie industry is also not fully liberalized. The industry is required to ensure that movie contents are consistent with core socialist and cultural values and locally produced movies are also financially viable. However, cultural and politically motivated regulation can adversely affect box-office revenues. Using a recently available dataset, which covers the period of 2009–2018, we investigate the box-office performance of Chinese domestic movies. We start by examining the role of movie quality signals (such as star power, internet media evaluation and industry recognition) in our empirical analysis of the relationship between family-friendly content of movies and box-office revenues. We then match the movie contents with its financial performance records. Our novel approach reveals that the explicit sex and profanity in movies have a negative and statistically significant impact on box-office revenues, which confirms the role of cultural values in financial success of motion pictures in China. However, in the case of large-budget movies involving celebrity superstars, the violent and gore (graphic violence) content attracts viewers and hence the box-office revenue increases. Our work highlights the contradictory nature of China’s movie industry policy, which binds the industry to strict cultural and politically motivated regulation while insisting on financial success.

Evaluating power building: Concepts and considerations for advocacy evaluators

AbstractPower is a fundamental dimension of social change that evaluators regularly overlook. To evaluate power effectively, the evaluation field needs a necessary reorientation in understandings of social change goals, outcomes, strategies, and actors. A focus on power is a missing component in advocacy evaluation and represents a paradigm shift for advocacy evaluators. This article explores the theoretical contributions and methodological considerations of evaluating power, drawing from our experience evaluating nine community organizations' power‐building work focused on economic justice policy reforms. We conclude that four considerations can reorient evaluations to the role of power: (1) grounding power evaluations in equitable evaluation, (2) expanding the scope of evaluations beyond a focus on policy wins to examine individual and collective liberation, (3) incorporating frameworks that acknowledge and assess the iterative and cyclical nature of power building, and (4) clarifying the unit of analysis to consider how a wide array of actors build and wield power.

Price and value competitiveness of Ukrainian merchandise exports

In economics, "competitiveness" remains a very general concept, and its use in applied research does not allow combining their results and making unambiguous conclusions. This process is also complicated by the fact that the concept is composite and has two components – the price competitiveness and the value competitiveness. The latter can serve as an indicator of qualitative changes in the economy. However, this aspect of competitiveness in developing countries is still underestimated by researchers. Therefore, it is safe to say that today there are no studies, which, with a high level of accuracy, can analyze the value competitiveness of exports in such countries. Economists usually focus their efforts on the analysis of export price competitiveness and one of its main factors, which is the exchange rate of the national currency. However, this approach has limited cognitive capabilities, because the emergence of new centers of global growth, such as China and India is impossible to explain, based only on the high price competitiveness of their exports. The article attempts to solve some accumulated problems in economic science. In particular, based on the results of the analysis of modern definitions of the concept of "competitiveness", the author proposes to expand its content, generalizing the level of conformity of goods (services) to consumer preferences of market participants. This conceptual position is used to deepen the understanding of the basic, value and price competitiveness of products. A method for assessing the dominant role of value (price) competitiveness of exports in ensuring its dynamics has been developed. According to the results of the of methodology, it was found that in Ukraine’s export markets, the cyclical process of alternating growth of value or price competitiveness of this country’s products is mostly interrupted. The reason for this is the high price competitiveness of raw material exports, which is mainly attained due to low wages in the economy. In international markets, value competitiveness is inherent in a relatively small number of product groups of Ukrainian products. These include: insulated wires, cables and other insulated electrical conductors; fiber optic cables; turbojet engines, turboprop and other gas turbines; weapons, ammunition, their parts and accessories; electric heating devices and apparatus; vessels intended for the carriage of persons or goods; tugs and pushers; parts of aircraft; cars for transportation of passengers, cargoes, including self-propelled ones; water steam turbines and other steam turbines; and women's and men's clothing. It is substantiated that from the point of view of finding a new strategy of economic growth for Ukraine, the most urgent issues are not those of intensifying export activities, but those of updating the composition of the largest export commodity groups. Leading positions among them should be occupied by goods with a large share of value added, and increased technological complexity and value competitiveness. The beginning of this process will mean the emergence of new qualitative changes in the economy, and the effectiveness of public policy of economic reform.

The Baker Hypothesis: Stabilization, Structural Reforms, and Economic Growth

In 1985, James A. Baker III's “Program for Sustained Growth” proposed a set of economic policy reforms including, inflation stabilization, trade liberalization, greater openness to foreign investment, and privatization, that he believed would lead to faster growth in countries then known as the Third World, but now categorized as emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). A country-specific, time-series assessment of the reform process reveals three clear facts. First, in the ten-year period after stabilizing high inflation, the average growth rate of real GDP in EMDEs is 2.6 percentage points higher than in the prior ten-year period. Second, the corresponding growth increase for trade liberalization episodes is 2.66 percentage points. Third, in the decade after opening their capital markets to foreign equity investment, the spread between EMDEs average cost of equity capital and that of the US declines by 240 basis points. The impact of privatization is less straightforward to assess, but taken together, the three central facts of reform provide empirical support for the Baker Hypothesis and suggest a simple neoclassical interpretation of the unprecedented increase in growth that has taken place in EMDEs since the early 1990s.

Fiscal governance and forecasting Bias: a case study of Greece during the economic crisis

In this paper, we examine the correlation between budget and growth forecast errors of the Greek Government, during the last decade. We explore if these budget forecast errors are the result of fiscal performance, economic conditions, or other qualitative characteristics of economic policy reform. We try to explain whether biased macroeconomic forecasts were responsible for biased fiscal forecasts. Besides, we investigate the role of business and consumers expectations, the election process and the financial aid disbursements following positive reviews of the Greek policy reform. We conclude that fiscal governance reform has improved fiscal forecasting framework, even though pessimistic forecasts prevail.

Risk analysis of belt and road infrastructure projects using integrated ISM-MICMAC approach

PurposeThe historic Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an economic reform policy proposed by the Chinese Government that focuses on connectivity, improved collaboration and more robust economic relations. This paper aims to identify risks involved in BRI infrastructure project and establish a hierarchical relationship among them.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology includes two phases, namely, identification of significant risks involved in the BRI project using systematic literature review and to develop a hierarchical relationship between the risks using interpretive structural modeling followed by the MICMAC analysis.FindingsThis work has identified the 11 risks of BRI infrastructure projects through academic literature. Based on the analysis, economic risk (R3), environmental risk (R1) and political risk (R2) are placed at level six in the ISM model and can significantly influence BRI infrastructure projects. These risks have high driving power, which exaggerates other risks.Research limitations/implicationsThis study would help Engineering Procurements and Construction contractors in strategic decision-making select risk mitigation strategies and make robust and efficient infrastructure projects. However, additional factors may be considered, which are essential for the BRI infrastructure project.Originality/valueThis research’s novelty lies in the advancement of expertise in project risk assessment. This study contributes by identifying the most significant risks involved in the BRI project. The integrated ISM-MICMAC approach provides a macro picture of BRI project risks to formulate better strategies for its success.

Ministerial Autonomy, Parliamentary Scrutiny and Government Reform Output in Parliamentary Democracies.

One of the most important decisions coalition partners make when forming a government is the division of ministries. Ministerial portfolios provide the party in charge with considerable informational and agenda-setting advantages, which parties can use to shape policies according to their preferences. Oversight mechanisms in parliaments play a central role in mitigating ministerial policy discretion, allowing coalition partners to control each other even though power has been delegated to individual ministers. However, we know relatively little about how such mechanisms influence the agenda-setting and gatekeeping powers of ministers and how much influence minister parties have on policy output relative to the government as a whole in different institutional settings. We fill this gap by analyzing original data on over 2000 important social and economic policy reform measures adopted in nine Western European countries over 20 years, based on a coding of more than 1200 country reports issued by the Economist Intelligence Unit and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). We find that parliaments with strong oversight powers constrain the agenda-setting capacity of minister parties but have limited impact on their gatekeeping capacity. Our findings have important implications for our understanding of policy-making and democratic accountability.

Investigating the asymmetric impact of oil prices on GCC stock markets

This paper investigates the presence of an asymmetric relationship between oil price movements and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets. We propose the implementation of nonlinear vector smooth transition regression models, which offer greater flexibility when modeling potentially asymmetric reactions in equities. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not exhibit similar sensitivities to oil price changes. We document that oil price changes have asymmetric effects on stock returns in some GCC countries but not others. More specifically, we find that four out of six GCC stock markets are more sensitive to large oil deviations than to small ones. Our results highlight the importance of economic stabilization and reform policies that can potentially reduce the sensitivity of stock returns to oil price changes, especially with regard to the existence of asymmetric behavior.

ЦІНОВА ТА ЦІННІСНА КОНКУРЕНТОСПРОМОЖНІСТЬ ТОВАРНОГО ЕКСПОРТУ УКРАЇНИ

In economics, "competitiveness" remains a very general concept, and its use in applied research does not allow combining their results and making unambiguous conclusions. This process is also complicated by the fact that the concept is composite and has two components – the price competitiveness and the value competitiveness. The latter can serve as an indicator of qualitative changes in the economy. However, this aspect of competitiveness in developing countries is still disregarded by researchers. Therefore, it is safe to say that today there are no studies, which, with a high level of accuracy, can analyze the value competitiveness of exports in such countries. Economists usually focus their efforts on the analysis of export price competitiveness and one of its main factors, which is the exchange rate of the national currency. However, this approach has limited cognitive capabilities, because the emergence of new centers of global growth, such as China and India is impossible to explain, based only on the high price competitiveness of their exports. The article attempts to solve some accumulated problems in economic science. In particular, based on the results of the analysis of modern definitions of the concept of "competitiveness", the author proposes to expand its content, generalizing the level of conformity of goods (services) to consumer preferences of market participants. This conceptual position is used to deepen the understanding of the basic, value and price competitiveness of products. A method for assessing the dominant role of value (price) competitiveness of exports in ensuring its dynamics has been developed. According to the results of the of methodology, it was found that in Ukraine’s export markets, the cyclical process of alternating growth of value or price competitiveness of this country’s products is mostly interrupted. The reason for this is the high price competitiveness of raw material exports, which is mainly attained due to low wages in the economy. In international markets, value competitiveness is inherent in a relatively small number of product groups of Ukrainian products. These include: insulated wires, cables and other insulated electrical conductors; fiber optic cables; turbojet engines, turboprop and other gas turbines; weapons, ammunition, their parts and accessories; electric heating devices and apparatus; vessels intended for the carriage of persons or goods; tugs and pushers; parts of aircraft; cars for transportation of passengers, cargoes, including self-propelled ones; water steam turbines and other steam turbines; and women's and men's clothing. It is substantiated that from the point of view of finding a new strategy of economic growth for Ukraine, the most urgent issues are not those of intensifying export activities, but those of updating the composition of the largest export commodity groups. Leading positions among them should be occupied by goods with a large share of value added, and increased technological complexity and value competitiveness. The beginning of this process will mean the emergence of new qualitative changes in the economy, and the effectiveness of public policy of economic reform.

A comparative study of the expectations of SME employers recruiting young people in Germany, Australia and the United States

AbstractDebate continues to feature prominently in many countries on such notions as skills, skill shortages and employability. Clearly such notions remain significant internationally in the rhetoric of both economic reform and training policy and practice. However, the problem remains of differing perceptions. The purpose of this comparative study was to examine the expectations of small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) when they recruit young people. Focusing on Germany, Australia and the United States, interviews were held with 30 managers in two diverse job roles—hospitality front‐desk staff and automotive technicians. In addition to differences in the range of desired skills between the job roles in these countries, difficulties in recruiting young people were highlighted by the study. Generational differences and academization were perceived as having effects on the hiring of young workers. Various problems with each country's general education system were also emphasized, as managers perceived many young people being inadequately prepared for work. The study also demonstrates the influence of the skill formation system of the countries is less relevant in comparison to the sector in which the SMEs are active.

Analyzing the reality of foreign direct investment and measuring its impact on economic growth for the period (2000-2017)Algeria as a model

Foreign direct investment is of paramount importance at the international level, especially in developing countries, as many studies have shown its effective impact and its essential role in the medium and long term in advancing economic growth by stimulating GDP rates, providing employment opportunities, providing expertise and advanced technology. What prompted most Arab countries, including Algeria, to exert efforts in order to provide an appropriate investment environment to attract direct investment through a set of economic reforms, guarantees and facilities, and their conclusion of multiple bilateral agreements to encourage and protect the foreign investor.The research aims to know the extent of the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Algeria for the period (2000-2017) by using standard analysis tools to identify the nature of the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth.The research also found that the gross domestic product has a positive relationship with foreign direct investment, that is, when foreign direct investment increases by one unit, this will inevitably lead to an increase in economic growth by (6.43). The research also recommends the necessity of adopting economic structural reform policies in line with the reality The Algerian economy, and working to develop and develop the financial markets through their size and tools, with an emphasis on the issue of legislation and laws that guarantee the regulation of capital investment flows.

Unimplementable by design? Understanding (non‐)compliance with International Monetary Fund policy conditionality

AbstractWhy do governments fail to implement policy commitments in contractual agreements with international organizations? While scholars have scrutinized domestic factors as obstacles to compliance, we argue that reform programs may beunimplementable by design. We study this hypothesis in the context of International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs, in which borrowing countries must commit to far‐reaching economic policy reforms for access to credit. We collect detailed compliance data on individual policy conditions to assess the determinants of compliance failures of IMF programs from 1980 to 2009. Controlling for a host of borrower‐specific variables, features of the loan, unexpected shocks during implementation, donor influence, and bureaucratic interest, we find that the number of conditions is a robust predictor of implementation failure. Our theoretical explanation for these findings is that over‐ambitious program designs are the result of intra‐organizational bargaining within the IMF bureaucracy. While an area department within the IMF drafts the initial reform program, functional departments use their amendment power to include policy conditions that they care about, without due consideration of local circumstances, which leads to over‐ambitious programs. These findings have important implications for theories of compliance as well as for policymaking in international organizations.

Evaluating Properties and Performance of Long Memory Models from an Emerging Foreign Markets Return Innovations

The study investigates evaluate properties and performance of long memory models from emerging foreign markets return innovations between 1991 - 2020. The purpose of the study includes; investigate the persistence of shocks in Nigerian international markets, model long-range dependence, test the efficient markets hypothesis using fractionally integrated volatility models, develop an appropriate long memory model for Nigerian international markets, compare the advantages between short and long memory models in modeling for the returns in Nigerian international Markets and Give forecast values for future occurrences. The design for the study was an ex post facto research design. The data used for this study were Nigerian crude oil prices (Dollar per Barrel), exchange rate, and Agricultural Commodity prices extracted from the website of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) www.cbn.ng. The total data points were 1044 and it spanned from 1st January 1991 to 30th January 2020. The statistical software used for data analysis was STATA 15 and OX metrics version 7. In an attempt to achieve the aim of the study, parametric and non-parametric methods of detecting Long Memory were applied. The study applied short and long memory models in an attempt to spot out the deficiencies associated with the short memory models. The results confirmed the presence of long memory in sales and returns on prices in Nigerian international markets. The presence of long memory in both sales and returns on prices in Nigerian International markets disprove the efficient market hypothesis which says that the future returns and volatility values are unpredictable. Similarly, base on performance evaluation using the Akaike information criteria, ARFIMA(1,-0.021,1) model was found to be the best fit model to the data after checking the adequacy of the model selected. Sequel to the above, it was recommended that there is a need for a strong financial and economic reform policy to curb persistent shocks in Nigerian international markets. This is because a stable local financial currency builds confidence in an economy, especially when foreign investors intend to invest in the country’s economy. For example, exchange rate policies also trim down the desire for local investors to trade in the international market. Also, for empirical estimation of long memory sales and returns on prices in Nigeria international markets, ARFIMA(1,-0.021,1) model should be considered appropriate. Two years (January, 20 to Dec-22) step ahead forecast shows that the predicted value for Cocoa Bean Sale using the ARFIMA (1,-0.021,1) falls between the range of 1.907247 to 1.915947.

The evolution of retail channels in China since 2000

Drawing from premier marketing reports and retailing literatures about China, this article analyzes the evolution of retail channels in China from 2000 to 2015. Under the punctuated equilibrium paradigm, we examine the interactions between retailers and consumers by using competitive and transaction cost analysis. We find that China’s retail channel evolution since 2000 has been driven by unique factors: (a) the government’s economic reform policies and the introduction of Internet technology; (b) behavioral differences based on an urban-rural dualism; and (c) the deep penetration of mobile devices and social media platforms. Based on this analysis, the article concludes with predictions for the future development of retail channels in China.

Issues of deeping the Uzbekistan economy integrated to the world market

The process of globalization in the world is so fast that, despite the contradictions between some countries, in some cases it forces them to work together; otherwise it can lead to situations such as lagging behind the world civilization. In the current situation, the development of relations between countries affects the development of the national economy of each country. Economic integration is observed at the level of national economies of entire countries, as well as at the level of enterprises, firms, companies, corporations. Economic integration is manifested in the expansion and deepening of technological ties in production, the joint use of resources, the pooling of capital and the creation of favorable conditions for each other in the process of economic activity, and the elimination of barriers. It is known that from the first years of independence, our country has begun to effectively implement the rapid development of reforms in foreign economic policy, and therefore created a regulatory framework in this area. In the context of globalization, the process of integration of countries in various fields is accelerating, and it serves as a factor in the development of republics. The current stage of human development is characterized by the rapid development of globalization processes. If we look at globalization from an economic point of view, it means the formation and development of a system of economic relations that covers the entire space of the world economy. The basis for this process is the mutual integration of countries. In particular, integration into the world economy plays an important role in attracting foreign investors to our country, as foreign economic activity increases the country's investment attractiveness.

Corporate mergers, announcement returns and postmerger financial performance: a literature review in the Indian context

The rise of corporate mergers and acquisitions in emerging market countries has received the growing interest of several researchers from diverse fields in business management. In this paper, we review from the past to recent published papers in mergers and acquisitions research in the Indian context, particularly since the economic policy reforms initiated in 1991. Literature review' insights from more than 70 research articles in the Indian setting was well summarised - announcement returns around the domestic mergers and acquisitions; post-merger financial performance; banking and financial sector mergers; and comparative studies with reference to local vs. international mergers in and to the Indian context. Finally, we recommend some potential areas and knowledge gaps in local and international mergers and acquisitions for future research in the Indian business scenario.

How trade openness influenced economic growth in India: An empirical investigation

Objectives: To analyze the dynamic impacts of trade openness on economic growth in India. Methodology: This study extensively examines the dynamic impact of trade openness on economic growth in India using ARDL Bounds Test approach. A complex trade openness index is constructed using PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and a time dummy variable is used in an effort to capture the Economic Reform Policy dynamics of 1991 in India. Per capita GDP growth rate has been used as a standard measure of economic growth. Annual time series data has been used for estimation over the period of 1960- 2018 Findings: It is found that the trade openness has negative impact on economic growth in India in both the short and long run. The result conforms to several findings on the same topic. Applications: This study incorporates measures to control for the shocks by the new economic policy of 1991. It is also discussed why trade openness might have had a negative impact on the economy of India in spite of it being a desirable phenomenon. Keywords: ARDL; India; economic growth; development; trade openness; new economic policy of 1991

Pattern of Public Expenditure on Social Sector in India

Human capital also enhances the productivity of high-technology physical capital. Available empirical evidence indicates that all countries that have managed persistent growth in income have also had large increases in the education and training of their labor forces. Empirical studies in the Indian context also reveal investments in human capital have a significant impact on economic growth. Like many other developing countries, the Government of India’s key policy documents, including economic reforms, have identified poverty eradication/alleviation and social development as two main challenges and expressed the government’s commitment towards social development and eradication of poverty. Indian government’s gradual adoption of marketoriented economic reform policies in the mid-1980s was accompanied by an expansionist fiscal strategy to counterbalance the redistributive effect of liberalization. These economic and political developments have tended to strongly influence social sector policies in India. If the expenditure is diverted towards development activities, it will promote the process development of the state. It becomes essential to study the patterns of social sector expenditure in India at national and state levels to ascertain how the social sector has been managed by the governments in India and to what extent the central and state governments in India have fulfilled their responsibility of developing the social sector in India.

Why North Korea Could Not Implement the Chinese Style Reform and Opening? The Internal Contradiction Between Economic Reform and Political Stability

Can North Korea implement Chinese-style reform and opening-up policies? This is an important question, directly relevant to the policy debate on North Korea’s nuclear challenges. Through comparative historical analysis, I argue that Pyongyang has failed to adopt the Chinese-style reform and opening-up for the internal and structural restraints. The Chinese experience shows that the economic reform and opening, to be successful, requires a certain degree of political reform and openness to be executed together. North Korea could not implement the economic reform and opening policies as effectively as China did, not because of the external conditions like international sanctions or security threat to the country, but more for the internal contradiction that North Korea’s own economic development is likely to endanger the stability of the political system more rapidly and widely than China has experienced. For this analysis, I rely on North Korea’s published laws and economic policies, previous survey works and scholarly works published in Korean and Chinese.