Risk Of Economic Losses Research Articles

Community-Based Disaster Insurance for Sustainable Economic Loss Risk Mitigation: A Systematic Literature Review

This systematic literature review (SLR) explores the role of community-based catastrophe insurance (CBCI) as a tool for sustainable economic loss risk mitigation. Utilizing bibliometric analysis and a literature review, this study aims to reveal the methods employed in CBCI schemes from a novel perspective, highlighting their effectiveness in mitigating catastrophe risks. The PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) methodology was employed to systematically collect and analyze articles sourced from the Scopus, ScienceDirect, and Dimensions databases. The findings provide a comprehensive summary of the CBCI implementation, including various considerations such as risk-sharing mechanisms, premium determination, and policy frameworks. This research offers a fresh perspective on CBCI as a sustainable approach to catastrophe risk mitigation, contributing valuable insights to policymakers, practitioners, and researchers interested in community resilience and disaster risk management.

Model of Tsunami Mitigation and Evacuation Routes in Pancer Banyuwangi

Banyuwangi has the largest tsunami disaster risk in East Java, about 45,305 affected people, Rp. 160,886,000,- for the risk of physical losses, Rp. 106,414,000,- for the risk of economic losses and 84 ha of environmental losses (BNPB, 2023). In addition, according to historical data, Banyuwangi was hit by tsunami on June 9, 1994 with magnitude of 7.8 which caused a maximum run up of 14.0 m and killed 238 lives (BNPB, 2023). Also based on Undang- undang No. 24 Tahun 2007 concerning Disaster Management, Indonesia should have preventive and mitigation measures for tsunami disasters both before and after as an effort to reduce the disaster risk (Putra, 2009) . Tsunami modeling in southern Java using COMCOT v1.7 as tsunami worst case scenario in Banyuwangi is the first step for mitigation. The initial results of COMCOT were then used for preparing tsunami disaster evacuation route planning based on the Tsunami Natural Disaster Evacuation Route Planning Guidelines, Dirjen Bina Marga, 2023. The final step is validation/routing survey of the 8 (eight) routes that have been determined. 2 (two) of the 8 (eight) routes fulfill the guidelines for planning tsunami mitigation routes. However, all routes can be considered due to the distribution of settlements, the number of affected residents and the number of routes needed

Prolonged in-use physicochemical and biological stability of nivolumab and pembrolizumab diluted in saline infusion bags and in partially used medication vials.

The aim of this study was to determine long-term physicochemical and biological stability of nivolumab and pembrolizumab diluted in saline infusion bags and partially used medication vials. This may enable the prolonged clinical use of these expensive monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) to minimize the economic loss. Sterile nivolumab and pembrolizumab concentrates in partially used medication vials and compounded nivolumab and pembrolizumab infusion solutions were stored for two and four weeks, respectively, at 2-8°C in the dark. Subsequently, concentrates and compounded solutions were stored for an additional two weeks under ambient temperature and light conditions. A panel of validated and complementary methods, consisting of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, size exclusion chromatography, and dynamic light scattering, were used to assess the biological and physiochemical stability of these mAbs. All samples showed that purity and concentration had remained within the criteria of <5% as stated in the European Pharmacopoeia. Diluted in infusion bags, nivolumab and pembrolizumab remained biologically and physiochemically stable for up to four weeks when stored at 2-8°C in the dark with an additional two weeks of ambient temperature and light. Stability in partially used medication vials was demonstrated for at least two weeks when stored at 2-8°C in the dark with an additional two weeks of ambient temperature and light. The findings of this study justify the storage and clinical re-use of sterile nivolumab and pembrolizumab in partially used medication vials and compounded IV infusion bags for up to six weeks. This minimizes the risk of economic loss due to waste. Moreover, these findings support the batch-wise compounding of fixed-dose and dose-banded nivolumab and pembrolizumab infusion bags.

Multi-hazard direct economic loss risk assessment on the Tibet Plateau

Natural disasters are becoming increasingly regional, frequent, and complex. Semi-quantitative risk assessments based on risk indices or relative risk levels lack quantitative parameters to characterize losses adequately. This study focuses on earthquakes and geological disasters, quantitatively assessing the risk of probable maximum loss (PML) from multi-hazard on the Tibet Plateau (TP) in terms of both absolute and relative values. The results indicate that total PML from multi-hazard on the TP is estimated at 465.5 billion CNY, with a relative value of 5.3%. The total loss value of towns with very high absolute PML is estimated at 254.8 billion CNY, while the relative loss value of towns with very high relative PML is 25.1%. Towns with high absolute value of PML for multi-hazard may have higher fixed asset values, while those with high relative value imply higher vulnerability. Adjusting building structures and reducing the vulnerability of buildings could effectively mitigate the risk of disaster losses caused by multiple hazards.

Profile of cattle breed sensitivity to the tick Rhipicephalus microplus

Among cattle, Bos taurus breeds and their crosses are more sensitive to tick infestations than Bos indicus breeds that are more resistant to infestation and more adaptable to tropical climates. The presence of susceptible individuals in herds and inadequate tick control lead to direct and indirect losses in the meat production chain, in addition to increased mortality due to cattle tick fever. The objective of this study was to describe, compare and rank the sensitivity of different breeds of stabled cattle to the tick Rhipicephalus microplus and to present, as an innovative result, a scale called the Tick Ruler. Secondary data on the number of retrieved engorged females, engorged female ticks’ weight, egg mass weight and number of larvae were extracted from research reports of experiments conducted over 18 years with eight breeds to describe and report the sensitivity of the breeds to artificial infestation by R. microplus larvae. For analyses, the recovery rate of engorged female ticks and the percentile of dispersion of individuals in their respective races were calculated, and comparison of these percentiles between races was performed. The ranking of the percentiles resulted in the organization of the breeds by their susceptibility to R. microplus; we call this scale the “Tick Ruler.” The ruler is a simple, easy-to-understand tool that can be used by technicians and producers to evaluate the tick sensitivity of a breed of interest and can assist producers in decision-making to find a balance between increased production gains and the risk of economic losses depending on the breed composition in a cattle herd.

Single landslide risk assessment considering rainfall‐induced landslide hazard and the vulnerability of disaster‐bearing body

Quantitative calculation of single landslide risk has great significance for the prevention and treatment of landslides, through analysing the slope stability under different rainfall recurrence periods. In this study, the rainfall of the past 40 years in Xun'wu County of China is counted and the rainfall during the return periods of 10, 20 and 50 years are calculated to form three different rainfall conditions. Then, the stability of Cheng'nan landslide in Xun'wu County is calculated by the Geo‐Studio 2007 software, and the probability of landslide occurrence is obtained by Monte Carlo theory under these three conditions. Next, the field investigation is employed to obtain the statistical results of the buildings and personnel in the affected area of Cheng'nan landslide. Finally, the risk of economic loss and casualty under the three conditions are calculated. It was demonstrated that: (1) Under the three conditions, the safety factor decreased gradually, the rate of decrease was slower in the first 3 days and faster in the middle period and there was still a downward trend after the end of the rain. (2) The probability of landslide occurrence during the rainfall return periods of 10, 20 and 50 years were 1.77%, 2.97% and 1.61%, respectively. Besides, the risk index of landslide was the highest under the condition of 20‐years rainfall return period. (3) The economic loss risk and casualty risk in the rainfall return periods of 10, 20 and 50 years were 122,700‐yuan and 4.11 people, 205,900‐yuan and 6.89 people, as well as 11,600‐yuan and 3.74 people, respectively.

ТЕХНИКО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ И СОЦИАЛЬНЫЕ АСПЕКТЫ СИСТЕМЫ "УМНЫЙ ДОМ" ДЛЯ РАБОТНИКОВ АГРОПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО КОМПЛЕКСА РОССИИ

Ensuring the efficient operation of agricultural enterprises depends on many factors, including the availability of qualified specialists. An important condition for attracting personnel to rural areas is the creation of comfortable social and living conditions. The Smart house system makes it possible to create comfortable social and living conditions for young professionals to live in rural areas. At the same time, these systems are complex and expensive, so their implementation requires a comprehensive study of technical, economic and social aspects. The article presents the Smart House concept for a rural residential building with an area of 150 m2 in the Krasnoyarsk Region of the Russian Federation. An important issue is the development of a methodology for assessing the economic efficiency of a project. Efficiency criteria should consider not only cost indicators, but also assessment of social effects. A list of qualitative parameters has been compiled and a methodology for their calculation is given. Calculation of efficiency indicators has been carried out. According to the results of a feasibility study for the use of the automated Smart House system, the reduction in operating costs is 460 thousand rubles/year. By saving on electricity bills and reducing the risk of economic losses, as well as improving the standard of living of rural specialists, it is possible to recoup additional costs within 2 years. Net present value for 3 years will be 118 thousand rubles.

Seed yield improvements in slow‐darkening pinto bean: Registration of ‘ND Rodeo’

Abstract‘ND Rodeo’ (PVP no. 202300270; Reg. no. CV‐356, PI 703020) is a new slow‐darkening (SD) pinto bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) cultivar developed by the Dry Edible Bean Breeding Program at North Dakota State University and released by the North Dakota Agricultural Experiment Station. Pinto bean is the largest market class grown in the United States, representing over 47% of the total US production for dry beans, and more than 70% is produced in North Dakota. SD pinto beans offer a good alternative to commercial cultivars of regular darkening (RD) pinto beans, which are typically subject to the risk of economic losses due to seed coat darkening. However, reaching seed yields comparable to RD pintos has been challenging. Between 2017 and 2022, ND Rodeo was tested across 25 environments in North Dakota, where seed yield was significantly higher than the SD pinto cultivars ‘ND Palomino’ and ‘Vibrant’ (18% and 22%, respectively), and comparable with RD pinto cultivars ‘La Paz’ and ‘Monterrey’. ND Rodeo is resistant to Bean common mosaic virus and has intermediate resistance to common bacterial blight, but similar to the commercial checks, it is susceptible to local races/strains of white mold, anthracnose, and rust pathogens. ND Rodeo has an average height of 56 cm which is significantly higher than the average of ND Palomino, Vibrant, and La Paz, and exhibits a desirable upright architecture to facilitate direct harvest. It has a 100‐seed weight of 36.2 g and matures in 102 days. Canning quality was rated as acceptable.

Impact of Climate Change on Pest Biology, Behaviour and Their Distributions

Increased temperatures, rising CO2 levels, and changing precipitation patterns are influencing agricultural production. These changes can lead to the expansion of insect pests geographic distribution, increased survival during overwintering, more generations per year, altered synchrony with plants, changed interspecific interactions, higher risk of invasion by migratory pests, increased incidence of insect-transmitted plant diseases, and reduced effectiveness of biological control. There is a serious risk of economic losses in crop production. Human food security is challenged due to potential disruptions in agricultural systems. Climate change necessitates adaptive management strategies to address evolving pest dynamics. Future research should focus on developing modified integrated pest management tactics to cope with changing pest statuses. Monitoring climate and pest populations is crucial for understanding and predicting the impact of climate change on insect pests. This review examines the climate change effect on insect pest biology and behavior and explores the potential use of modern pest monitoring technologies, modeling prediction tools can aid in forecasting and planning for potential pest outbreaks. Integrated pest management (IPM) approaches should be adapted to incorporate the changing dynamics influenced by climate change. This may involve a combination of chemical, biological, cultural, and mechanical control methods.

Financial contagion of the Thai hospitality industry during the global energy crisis

Subject. The article addresses the financial contagion of the hospitality industry on the case of Thailand. Objectives. The study aims at fixing the financial contagion from the oil and gas markets of shares of Thai hotel companies to assess the impact of the energy crisis of 2021–2022 on the hospitality sector. Methods. We employ general scientific research methods. Results. The Thai energy market analysis demonstrated significant dependence on fossil fuels, which occupy more than half of the total volume in the structure of energy generation. The paper highlights a technique of fixing the financial contagion in relation to the stock market of hospitality enterprises, provides data sampling on quotations of shares of Thai tourism enterprises, data on oil and gas futures prices. Further, the initial data were converted into a series of logarithmic returns. At the next stage, we performed a graphical analysis of the dynamics of volatility in the profitability of prices of futures contracts for oil and gas. Based on the series of logarithmic returns of pairs of "transmitter–receiver" variables, we constructed a DCC-GARCH model. We recorded financial contagion from the oil and gas markets and identified the causes of this process, i.e. the dependence of the tourism industry and hospitality enterprises on energy supplies, political situation in the region, sensitivity of the industry to economic crises. Also we note the instability of energy futures quotations during the crisis, which has a direct impact on the cost of tourist trips. Conclusions. The study of the mechanisms of transmission of financial contagion is an important area of anti-crisis planning of government measures to minimize the risks of economic losses.

CASL: A Novel Collusion Attack Against Distributed Energy Management Systems

Recently, the security issues of smart grids have received wide attention. In particular, false data injection attacks against distributed energy management systems (DEMSs) are considered of high importance as they are able to cause economic losses or even damages to system stability in subtle ways. Existing studies have identified many such attacks and proposed corresponding countermeasures. However, in this paper, we show that DEMS is still insecure and in risk of economic loss by proposing and analyzing a novel attack called Collusion Attack between a Storage and a Load (CASL). In CASL, a distributed energy storage device colludes with a load by injecting an abnormal extra power supply to the load in a secret way through using two secret functions. In this way, the colluding pair behaves as normal ones in both computational and communicational viewpoints. We theoretically prove the convergence of DEMS in presence of the attack, and derive an upper bound of the social welfare losses of DEMS caused by CASL. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CASL through simulations.

Using @RISK to Determine Potential Economic Losses to Jujube Production in China Resulting from Damage by Carposina sasakii (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae)

Abstract Carposina sasakii Matsumura (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae) is a serious fruit-boring pest in eastern Asia. In China, it is one of the most harmful and common pests in deciduous fruit trees, causing an annual loss of more than a billion yuan. However, economic losses to the jujube industry as a result of C. sasakii damage remain undefined. In this study, we collected related data on C. sasakii, the market price of jujube, and costs of its prevention and management. The potential economic losses of China's jujube industry caused by C. sasakii were predicted using @RISK (Palisade, Raleigh, NC) software and a stochastic simulation method, which is the universal model of potential economic loss assessment for economically important fruit flies. Our results showed that the total economic losses potentially caused by C. sasakii to China's jujube industry are approximately 8,643.41–350,524.15 million RMB (RMB is the legal tender in China; approximately 1,338.00–54,261.14 million USD) if the pest was not managed and approximately 2,487.15–123,242.12 million RMB (about 385.01–19, 077.88 million USD) when management was applied. Therefore, a loss of approximately 841.83–244,144.06 million RMB (approximately 130.32–37,793.50 million USD) can be logically retrieved after controlling this pest. As a result, we suggest that related organizations and pest management practitioners strengthen prevention and control measures of C. sasakii to reduce the risk of economic loss by decreasing the infestation level of C. sasakii in jujube production and, thus, economic losses after infestation.

Spatial‐temporal response capability probabilistic evaluation method of electric vehicle aggregator based on trip characteristics modelling

AbstractAccurately evaluating the response capability of electric vehicles (EVs) is very important for an EV aggregator (EVA) to formulate reasonable bidding strategies in ancillary service markets. Most of the methods proposed in the existing literature only evaluate EVs’ temporal response capability while ignoring their spatial distribution. In addition, the evaluation results provided by the existing methods are typically deterministic, which fails to characterize the uncertainty of EV trip. The above two issues pose high risk of economic loss for the EVA. To this end, a probabilistic evaluation method of spatial‐temporal response capability for EVA is proposed in this paper. The gravity model is adopted to calculate a spatial transfer probability matrix describing EV owners’ trip characteristics between different areas at each time in a region which is divided into several different areas according to the evaluation requirements. Then, the trip chains of EVs are modelled based on the spatial transfer probability matrix, and the states of charge (SOCs) of EVs are tracked in the process. The spatial‐temporal response capability of EVA is evaluated based on charging–discharging states and states of charge of EVs, and the probabilistic evaluation results of response capability are obtained by multiple Monte Carlo simulations. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified on a real dataset from San Francisco, CA, USA.

Supply reliability analysis of natural gas pipeline network based on demand-side economic loss risk

• An evaluation method for the economic loss risk on the demand side of a natural gas pipeline network system in a certain period is proposed. • User priorities are considered when there is a shortage of gas in the pipeline network. • The economic consequences on the demand side are quantified in terms of the alternative energy costs. • The effect of supply sequence of users on gas supply reliability is described. Most studies on the natural gas supply reliability evaluation have reflected on whether the volume of gas supply to users is sufficient. However, different types of users suffer from the same natural gas shortage, the consequences of loss are different. The abundance of the supplied gas volumes does not reflect the actual losses incurred by users. Moreover, when a gas shortage occurs, the supply flow of different types of users is redistributed according to the supply order. Therefore, this study proposes an evaluation method for the gas supply reliability based on demand-side economic risk. The user's supply sequence is integrated into the cost matrix to optimize the distribution of the user's demand flow under gas shortage. A calculation model of the economic loss cost is established using alternative energy sources. Finally, a reliability index is established based on economic risk to evaluate the degree of supply security. The results showed that the reliability based on the economic risk assessment was slightly higher than that based on the gas quantity assessment. The reliabilities were 99.988% and 99.991%, respectively. The economic risk is reduced and the reliability is improved for the important users after considering the influence of the demand-side supply order.

The role of the banks' rating system in the allocation of loans

The subject of this paper is the analysis of the application of banking internal credit risk measurement models for the purpose of calculating the minimum regulatory capital. The Basel Committee established proposals for an internal rating-based approach (IRB approach-internal rating-based) to capital requirements for credit risk. Such an approach, which relies on the bank's internal assessment of counterparties and exposures, can ensure two key objectives: the first is additional risk sensitivity, in which capital requirements based on internal ratings can be much more sensitive on the drivers of credit risk of economic losses in the banking portfolio; the second is incentive compatibility, where the appropriate structure of the RBI approach can provide a framework that encourages banks to continue to improve their internal risk management practices. The internal ranking approach aims to improve the safety and soundness of the financial system. The paper defines the terminology and classification of the rating system. The probability of default (PD-probability at default) and the other two risk components LGD (loss given default) and EAD (exposure at default) are key input parameters for the calculation of regulatory capital. The rating system is, therefore, a significant driver of risk management and financial performance measurement. To be in a position to demonstrate to supervisors that an internal rating system should be used for the purposes of determining minimum regulatory capital requirements, banks must first demonstrate that the rating system is an integral part of their ongoing operations and risk management culture.

Haze Risk Assessment Based on Improved PCA-MEE and ISPO-LightGBM Model

With the economic development in China, haze risks are frequent. It is important to study the urban haze risk assessment to manage the haze disaster. The haze risk assessment indexes of 11 cities in Fenwei Plain were selected from three aspects: the sensitivity of disaster-inducing environments, haze component hazards and the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, combined with regional disaster system theory. The haze hazard risk levels of 11 cities in Fenwei Plain were evaluated using the matter-element extension (MEE) model, and the indicator weights were determined by improving the principal component analysis (PCA) method using the entropy weight method, and finally, five haze hazard risk assessment models were established by improving the particle swarm optimization (IPSO) light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) algorithm. It is used to assess the risk of affected populations, transportation damage risk, crop damage area risk, direct economic loss risk and comprehensive disaster risk before a disaster event occurs. The experimental comparison shows that the haze risk index of Xi’an city is the highest, and the full index can improve the evaluation accuracy by 4–16% compared with only the causative factor index, which indicates that the proposed PCA-MEE-ISPO-LightGBM model evaluation results are more realistic and reliable.

KOMINFO DIGITAL LITERACY COUNSELING IN CIHAMPELAS VILLAGE, WEST BANDUNG REGENCY

Disaster is a series of events that threaten and disrupt people's lives and livelihoods caused by both natural and/or non-natural factors as well as human factors, resulting in human casualties, environmental damage, property losses, and psychological impacts. In order to reduce the impact of those disasters, a Community Service Program (KKN) was held by providing community services regarding natural disaster mitigation training as an effort to minimize the impact of the risk of economic loss in the Citarum River watershed and digital literacy counseling to increase the distribution of literacy skills. digital community in Cihampelas Village, West Bandung Regency. The program is aimed at students of SMPN 1 Cihampelas which is geographically close to the Citarum watershed. The method used is the provision of material on both topics to students at SMPN 1 Cihampelas. Based on the results of the activity, it shows that students are successful in understanding the material that has been delivered.

Socialization of Natural Disaster Mitigation to Minimize the Impact of the Risk of Economic Loss in the Citarum River Basin (DAS) West Bandung Regency

Flood is the flow of water at the ground surface that is relatively high and cannot be accommodated by drainage canals or rivers, causing inundation in an amount that exceeds normal and causes harm to humans. This flood disaster usually occurs in the lowlands around rivers, especially rivers that have various environmental problems such as factory waste, plastic waste, soil erosion, and so on. One of the rivers that often experience these flood events is the Citarum River, where the river has the title of the dirtiest river in the world. In order to reduce the impact caused by flooding, a Real Work Lecture (KKN) program was held by conducting community service regarding natural disaster mitigation training as an effort to minimize the impact of the risk of economic loss in the Citarum River basin, West Bandung Regency. The program is aimed at SMPN 1 CIhampelas students who are geographically close to the Citarum watershed. The method used is materialization regarding environmental problems in the Citarum watershed, the causes, and effects of flooding and its prevention, and disaster mitigation carried out when a flood occurs. After conducting the materialization, students were asked to discuss and explain how to mitigate floods when they occur at the school. Based on the results of the materials and tests carried out, it was found that students succeeded in conducting presentations on flood disaster mitigation, understanding the causes and effects of floods and how to prevent them, and understanding the importance of preserving the environment, especially in the Citarum River basin.

Economic loss risk assessment for pressure variation on methanol production

Economic loss risk assessment for pressure variation on methanol production

Application of Comprehensive Evaluation in New-Product-Development Evaluation: The Case of Landscape-Architectural Outdoor Wooden Furnishing

Successful new product development (NPD) is critical for modern outdoor wooden furnishing (OWF) manufacturing companies to achieve competitive success, since current users have the serious requirements of aesthetics, materials and environmental quality. Identifying the competitive performance of a product in development is an effective means to minimize the risk of failure. However, the literature reviews of the comprehensive evaluation (CE) model for OWF NPD are very rare. In this study, the CE method that applies three steps, which include constructing evaluation criteria, establishing a trapezoidal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and proposing a CE model is applied to assess the performance of a product in development and to minimize the risk of product failure in the market. The study aims to propose a CE approach for OWF NDP, which utilizes multiple methods that incorporate a literature review, questionnaire, Delphi method and fuzzy trapezoidal AHP. Finally, an integrated CE model is proposed to measure the competitive performance of NPD. A case study of a series of OWF in Harbin Pingfang Park, China is presented to illustrate the feasibility of the model. The result demonstrates that the proposed method predicts the performance of a product in development objectively and comprehensively. This evaluation method, being an assessment tool, can help designers and decision makers make better decisions and will predict the competitive performance of a product so as to reduce the risk of economic losses, not merely depending on previous experience and personal expectation.