Economic Growth Mode Research Articles

Impacts of the carbon emission trading system on China's carbon emission peak: a new data-driven approach.

Over the past four decades, China’s extensive economic growth mode has led to substantial greenhouse gas emissions, and China has become the world’s largest emitter since 2009. In order to alleviate the dual pressures from international climate negotiations and domestic environmental degradation, the Chinese government has pronounced it will reach its emission peak before 2030. However, through analyzing 12 scenarios, we found that it will be very difficult to meet this ambitious goal under the current widely used policies. With the trial implementation of China’s carbon emission trading system (ETS), concerns arise over whether national ETS can accelerate the carbon peak process. In this paper, we propose a new proactive data envelopment analysis approach to investigate the impacts of national carbon ETS on carbon peak. Several important results are obtained. For example, we find that carbon ETS has a significant accelerating effect on carbon peak, which effect will advance the carbon peak by one to 2 years, and the corresponding peak values are reduced by 2.71–3 Gt. In addition, the setting of carbon price in the current Chinese pilot carbon market is found to be overly conservative. Last, our estimation on the carbon trading volume indicates that the ETS lacks vitality as the annual average carbon trading volume only represents approximately 4.3% of the total average carbon emissions. Based on these findings, several policy implications are suggested regarding the means by which China can more smoothly peak its carbon emissions before 2030 and implement national carbon ETS.

Research on Chengdu air cargo forecast based on improved ARIMA-GARCH

With the transformation of China's economic growth mode and the upgrading of industrial structure, aviation logistics is becoming a strategic industry for China's economic and social development. Accurately predicting the dynamic trend of air cargo volume plays an important role in China's aviation logistics planning and construction, which will promote China's economic and social sustainable development. Due to the long-term trend, seasonal effect and uncertainty characteristics of air cargo volume, a single prediction model can not fit the trend of air cargo volume better, resulting in lower prediction accuracy. In this paper, based on the improved ARIMA-GARCH model, the Chengdu air cargo volume prediction model is established. In which, based on the ARIMA-GARCH model, the default white noise sequence in the GARCH model is replaced by the distribution estimated by the Bootstrap algorithm, thus improving the model's prediction precision.

Research on Chengdu air cargo forecast based on improved ARIMA-GARCH

With the transformation of China's economic growth mode and the upgrading of industrial structure, aviation logistics is becoming a strategic industry for China's economic and social development. Accurately predicting the dynamic trend of air cargo volume plays an important role in China's aviation logistics planning and construction, which will promote China's economic and social sustainable development. Due to the long-term trend, seasonal effect and uncertainty characteristics of air cargo volume, a single prediction model can not fit the trend of air cargo volume better, resulting in lower prediction accuracy. In this paper, based on the improved ARIMA-GARCH model, the Chengdu air cargo volume prediction model is established. In which, based on the ARIMA-GARCH model, the default white noise sequence in the GARCH model is replaced by the distribution estimated by the Bootstrap algorithm, thus improving the model's prediction precision.

The Influence of International Experience of Green Technology Innovation Policy on Regional Residents' Income Difference

Since the reform and opening up, China has witnessed rapid economic development, and now it has become the largest economy in the world. But with the development of economy, extensive development mode and rapid growth of population, the contradiction between economic development and natural environment has become more and more prominent. With the continuous deterioration of the environment, people around the world pay more and more attention to the environment, and there are more and more voices calling for national green and sustainable development. In this context, green technology innovation policy was born and developed rapidly, changing the mode of economic growth, reducing energy consumption and pollutant emissions, which has important strategic significance for the sustainable development of economy. However, at present, the system of green technology innovation policy in China is not perfect enough. We need to learn from the experience of international green technology innovation and design a green technology innovation system in line with China's national conditions. This paper uses the international experience of green technology innovation for reference, designs regional green technology innovation policies in line with China's national conditions, and analyzes the impact of green technology innovation policies on regional residents' income differences.

Research on the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress to Chongqing’s economic growth Based on the Solow Growth model

In the context of current proposed transformation of economic development of the region are actively rely on capital from investment to promote economic growth mode to a mode relying on technological progress to promote economic growth up. Therefore, this paper selects the sample data of Chongqing from 2010 to 2017, and based on the empirical analysis of the Solow residual value model, using SPSS statistics 25 software, studies the contribution of Chongqing’s capital investment and labor input, especially technological progress, to economic growth. The research shows that the contribution rate of Chongqing’s capital input to economic growth has always been at a relatively high level, but it has shown a general downward trend. At the same time, the elasticity coefficient of capital input is small, indicating that its contribution to economic growth is small; the contribution rate of labor input fluctuates greatly but the impact is small; the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress to economic growth shows an overall upward trend, which has become an important factor for driving Chongqing’s economic growth after capital investment. Therefore, governments must accelerate the transformation of the economic development mode, vigorously promote the development of science and technology, and rely more on scientific and technological progress to promote economic growth and achieve sustainable economic development.

Research on the Transformation Path and Model of Economic Growth Mode under the Background of Internet Finance

The emergence of Internet finance has had an impact on the existing financial and economic system. The economic growth rate is fast, and there is an urgent need for transformation and upgrading. In order to theoretically make a valuable guide to economic development under the current background, we will study the transformation path and mode of economic growth mode under the background of Internet finance. Through the analysis of the current economic growth and the impact of Internet Finance on economic development, this paper explores the problems of economic development under the background of Internet finance. In view of the problems analyzed, this paper studies the growth transformation path and mode of actively promoting the integration of Internet Finance and traditional financial services, enhancing information technology, promoting the transformation of economic growth mode and broadening innovative financial and economic service mode. This study provides theoretical support for formulating economic development policies in the future.

“Sustainable growth” or “growth with pollution”—— research on economic growth patterns of industrial enterprise based on industry attributes

In recent years, protecting the ecological environment while developing the economy has become a widespread demand, but there is still a big controversy about the mode of industrial economic growth in China. This paper analyzes the growth pattern of China’s industrial enterprises by using the micro data of enterprises from 2011 to 2018. On the one hand, industrial enterprises without pollution fees show higher sales growth rate, and this phenomenon is more obvious in high pollution industries such as mining industry and smelting industry, which proves the existence of “sustainable growth” pattern; on the other hand, among the industrial enterprises that are levied pollution fees, those with more pollution fees have higher sales growth rates, which shows that there is still a phenomenon of “growth with Pollution” in some polluting enterprises. These enterprises evade the responsibility of protecting the environment by paying the pollution fees, and in exchange for the growth of the company’s sales at the expense of the environment. This paper provides a reference for further promotion of energy saving, and selection of sales growth pattern for highly pollution industries such as mining industry and smelting industry.

Prediction on Peak Values of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Chinese Transportation Industry Based on the SVR Model and Scenario Analysis

As the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, the peak values of Chinese CO2 emissions have attracted extensive attention at home and abroad. The carbon dioxide emissions of the Chinese transportation industry, accounting for 9.5% of total carbon dioxide emissions, is one of the high-emission industries, and its total carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise. Therefore, the accurate prediction of the peak values of carbon dioxide emissions from the Chinese transportation industry is helpful for China to formulate a reasonable policy of carbon dioxide emissions control. This paper, firstly, selects six major factors affecting the carbon dioxide emissions of the Chinese transportation industry. They are the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population, urbanization rate, energy consumption structure, energy intensity, and industrial structure. Then, it builds a prediction model of carbon dioxide emissions based on Support Vector Regression (SVR). Finally, it analyses the sensitivity of each factor. The predicted results show that, under the baseline scenario, they will reach a peak of 1365.71 million tons in 2040; under the low-carbon scenario, the carbon dioxide emissions of Chinese transportation will peak at 1115.43 million tons in 2036; and in the high-carbon scenario, the peak value will occur in 2046 and the carbon dioxide emissions will be 1738.18 million tons. In order to promote the early peak of carbon dioxide emissions from the transportation industry, it is, firstly, necessary to change the mode of economic growth and appropriately reduce the speed of economic development. Secondly, the energy intensity of the transportation industry is reduced and the utilization rate of clean energy is improved. Thirdly, the industrial structure is optimized. Fourthly, the carbon dioxide emissions of the transportation industry caused by the increased urbanization rate are reasonably controlled.

Assessing the resilience of the belt and road countries and its spatial heterogeneity: A comprehensive approach.

Regional resilience refers to the resilience of a country or region against the ecological environment, social economy, and other internal and external natural factors and human factors in the process of development. When this resilience is lower than a certain critical threshold, the country or region will be in a fragile state. The comprehensive embodiment of ecological resilience, social resilience, and economic resilience of a country or region is regional resilience. Due to the wide range of countries along “the Belt and Road”, differences in natural background conditions and stages of economic and social development among different countries lead to different degrees of vulnerability, and the improvement of resilience is conducive to reducing vulnerability. At the same time, the research on the measurement and differentiation characteristics of regional resilience is of considerable significance to solve the weak foundation of environmental management and the lack of ability to deal with climate change of “the Belt and Road” countries. In this study, by using entropy weighting method and multi-index comprehensive evaluation method, 24 specific indicators are selected from three different dimensions: ecology, economy, and society, to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system about “the Belt and Road” countries resilience, and to evaluate the comprehensive resilience and spatial heterogeneity characteristics of China and 64 countries along “the Belt and Road”, and use multiple linear regression analysis to identify the main influencing factors of comprehensive resilience and analyze its influencing mechanism. According to the research, the overall resilience level of “the Belt and Road” countries shows prominent differentiation characteristics of “extreme difference”, the countries with low and low recovery status account for the vast majority; and the spatial differentiation characteristics of the levels of ecological resilience, economic resilience, and social resilience of countries along “the Belt and Road” are quite different. In countries with high levels of economic development, their comprehensive resilience is significantly higher than that of countries with low levels of economic development. There is no inevitable connection between a country’s economic growth rate and its comprehensive resilience level. At the same time, the relationship between resource richness and comprehensive resilience of countries is not apparent, but for those countries that are over-dependent on resources, the level of resilience is generally below. There is a certain degree of correspondence between urbanization rate and comprehensive resilience, that is, the comprehensive resilience will increase with the increase of urbanization rate. When the urbanization rate rises to a certain level, the level of comprehensive resilience does not change much. In this study, it provides scientific guidance for enriching regional resilience and national sustainable development theory, solving the fragile ecological environment foundation of “the Belt and Road” countries, speeding up the transformation of economic growth mode and dealing with a series of social problems.

Discussion on Tire Retreading and Reuse Technology

China has basic state policies of developing circular economy and promoting the reuse of waste materials. They are also regarded as important guarantees for the sustainable development of mankind. The recycling of used tire resources has gradually become a consensus among people as a sunrise industry. Countries all over the world attach great importance to the retreading and reuse of used tires, especially in developed countries who have taken used tires as an important industry to save rubber resources. Tire retreading is a way of recycling resources, which can save rubber raw materials, solve the environmental pollution of waste tires, and make full use of the value of tires. There is no ‘three-waste’ emission during prevulcanization retreading of used tires. It is a green environmental protection industry, which not only can save a lot of rubber, steel wire, petroleum energy and other resources, but also can realize the reduction, reuse and recycling of used tires. Tire retreading is an active way to recycle used tires, it is regarded as extension and processing reuse of the tire industry. They are of positive significance for promoting the comprehensive utilization of resource conservation, transformation of economic growth mode and sustainable development. The characteristics, technological process of tire retreading technology, current situation and development trend of retreading tire are discussed comprehensively in the paper.

Research on the Evaluation Index of Air Pollution Control Audit Based on PSR Model

Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has achieved high-speed growth. However, due to the extensive economic growth mode and the limited level of technical conditions, air pollution has become a serious problem, endangering the natural environment and human health. In order to speed up the improvement of ambient air quality, Chinese government continues to carry out air pollution control actions. This paper analyzes the current situation of air pollution control in China, and constructs an evaluation index system of air pollution control audit based on PSR model in combination with the characteristics of air resources.

What Are the Key Factors Affecting Air Pollution? Research on Jiangsu, China from the Perspective of Spatial Differentiation

Based on the spatial Dubin model, two representative atmospheric pollutants comprising industrial waste gas and NO2 were selected to empirically investigate the effects of eight variables, including the economic growth level, population size, and industrial structure, on atmospheric pollutants and measure the sub-regional effects using data for Jiangsu from 2000 to 2016. The results showed that the population size, economic growth level, rural modernization level, personal income, and introducing high-speed rail were positively correlated with air pollution. By contrast, the industrial structure, foreign direct investment, and urbanization level were negatively correlated with air pollution. In particular, the effects of personal income, foreign direct investment, introducing high-speed rail, and urbanization were significant. The sub-regional analyses detected spatial spillover effects in all regions. The direct effects were greater than the indirect effects, where the level of economic growth, foreign direct investment, and urbanization had significant impacts, and the spatial spillover effects were most obvious in northern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu. Therefore, the following solutions are proposed: adjusting the industrial structure, improving the mode of economic growth, promoting the use of clean energy and rationally introducing foreign direct investment.

新中国七十年经济增长方式转型的阶段性分析

新中国七十年经济增长方式转型的阶段性分析

CARBON REDUCTION STRATEGIES FOR THE EXPLOSIVE TAKEOFF STAGE OF URBANIZATION IN CHINA

Focusing on 199 Chinese cities at or above prefectural level, this paper mainly explores the interaction mechanism between urbanization and carbon emissions in China from 2003 to 2016, and evaluates the benefit and cost of different carbon reduction measures. Specifically, an econometric model was established based on simultaneous equations, and estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM). The results show that: every 1% increase in the urban percentage of population boosts the gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.332%, while elevating the carbon intensity by 0.175%; the key to resolve the contradiction between urbanization and carbon reduction lies in effective control of the economic cost of carbon reduction; the measures like promoting tertiary industry and reducing the proportion of secondary industry should be adopted cautiously; the carbon reduction cost will surge up, if the proportion of secondary industry reduces or that of clean energy rises too fast; in the future, the carbon reduction strategies should focus on the low-carbon development and the transform of economic growth mode.

Interpretations of sustainability beyond the middle class

AbstractCritical discourses of sustainability challenge modern rhetoric of economic growth and challenge current modes of social development. Yet sustainability discourses are shaped predominantly by the perspectives and interests of middle-class, tertiary-educated urban policy makers or environmentalists, and have insufficiently engaged people beyond these cohorts, even in the advanced capitalist societies where they have originated. This article shares findings from a study that investigated how people who are not strongly engaged with sustainability discourses understand and engage with many of the underlying concerns that animate these discourses from the context of their situated, everyday experiences. This is important information for sustainability educators, because it challenges dominant ideas of what sustainabilityisand offers new and alternate ways of engaging different groups of people in actions for sustainability. Bourdieu’s concepts of habitus, field and capital were used to inform the research design that employed focus groups and interviews with people from a range of socio-economic and cultural backgrounds and life stages in Tasmania, Australia. The findings provide insight into the ways in which people who are disengaged from discourses of sustainability may be actively engaged in practices of sustainability that may provide practical guidance for environmentalists and policy makers concerning how current discourses of sustainability reflect specific social contexts and experiences.

Effect of Labor Cost and Industrial Structure on the Development Mode Transformation of China’s Industrial Economy

ABSTRACTBased on the non-parametric DEA-Malmquist method, this paper estimates the total factor productivities of the 33 industrial sectors in China for 2002–2014. The proposed industrial restructuring measurement is based on total factor productivity rates. This paper utilizes panel data from Chinese industrial sectors and observes the effects of labor costs and industrial restructuring on economic growth approaches. The results show a clear effect of labor cost increases and industrial restructuring in promoting the transformation of economic growth modes. To transform the mode of China’s industrial economic development, improving labor quality, accumulating human capital, and industrial restructuring should be emphasized.

Examining the Relationship between Diffrent Modes of Infrastructure Financing and Economic Growth in India

With an aim to achieve a status of 5 trillion economy, India has to fulfil the criteria of achieving minimum 9%+ growth rate consistently for next five years. But at present, the economic indicators of India reflect a dismal picture to achieve that goal. The economic growth rate of India has gone down to almost five percent in first quarter of financial year 2019-20. Since the opening up of the Indian economy in 1991, the role of private sector in reviving the country’s growth cannot be overstated. Expanding investment in infrastructure is often projected as a weapon which can play a counter cyclical role in the phase of such economic crisis. In an attempt to analyse the impact different modes of investment in infrastructure on economic growth of India, this paper examines the trend of investments by private as well as both public and private (joint) since 1990s. Further, a time series econometric analysis is carried out for a period of twenty-eight years (1990-2018) wherein the nexus between investments (primarily in transportation and energy sector) and economic growth of India (GDP per capita) is examined. To examine the dynamic relationship between the variables, their causality, exogeneity and comparability, the Vector auto regression (VAR) model, along with the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used. The results of VAR and VECM suggests that there is significant impact of investment in infrastructure upon economic growth of India.

An Empirical Research of Logistics Efficiency for China—Based on DEA Model

The logistics industry plays a fundamental role in transforming the economic growth mode and promoting the national economic development. The efficiency of the logistics industry has a significant impact on the national and regional economic development. This paper analyzes the input-output situation of logistics industry in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China in 2017, and uses the DEA model for empirical analysis. Results show that China's regional unbalanced development efficiency of the logistics industry in 2017, among them, Tianjin, Hebei and other eight provinces logistics industry has realized the DEA effective, nine provinces such as Beijing, Tianjin in scale constant return state, Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong are in a state of diminishing returns of scale, other provinces are under scale increasing returns.

Modern Urban Planning and Design Based on Low Carbon Economy Concept

To accelerate the development of low-carbon industry in Zhaoqing City, transform the mode of economic growth, and promote industrial transformation and upgrading, the SWOT analysis method was applied. From the four aspects of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, the feasibility of developing a low-carbon economy in Zhaoqing was systematically analyzed. From the adjustment of industrial structure, the optimization of energy structure, the promotion of low-carbon tourism, the development of circular economy, and the enhancement of carbon sink capacity, the development path of low-carbon economy was explored. Based on the above analysis, a low carbon development plan was prepared. From the implementation of low-carbon development strategy, the choice of low-carbon economy pilot, and the low-carbon economic security system, the implementation steps of Zhaoqing's low-carbon economy were discussed in detail. The results showed that the low-carbon economy concept provided some ideas for Zhaoqing's economic development. Therefore, Zhaoqing is still in its infancy. The city's transportation system is not perfect. To develop a low-carbon economy, governments, enterprises, and individuals need to participate actively.

A Study on the Deepening Exploration Stage of the Reform of Socialist Market Economy System with Chinese Characteristics

The socialist market economy system reform with Chinese characteristics is one of the most important contents in China’s economic reform practice. From the reality of China’s economic development, the transformation of macroeconomic policies, and the academic discussion in the theoretical circles, it can be concluded that China’s market economy system reform entered the deepening exploration period since 2012, and it is urgent to change the economic growth mode to a higher quality socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics. This paper systematically studies the thought trajectory, policy practice and performance analysis of the socialist market economy system reform with Chinese characteristics entering the deepening exploration stage since 2012.At the thought level, China’s market economy system reform has achieved the multi-dimensional innovation and development since 2012. Among them, the basic understanding of the economic New Normal” is the era background and the thought premise of China’s deepening market economic reform. The proposal of New Development Concept” is its main line of thoughts and overall guidance of China’s deepening market economic reform, while the conception of Modern Economic System” and the initiation of Community with Shared Future for Mankind” are the thought expansion and extension respectively in internal direction and external direction. The thought trajectory of China’s market economy system reform’s deepening exploration is developing along this thought premise, the overall guidance, and the thought expansion in internal direction and external direction. These new ideas not only have theoretical breakthroughs and innovations in answering important questions such as what kind of development we want and how to achieve it”, what kind of world we want and how to achieve it”, but also provide an ideological and theoretical basis for China to deepen the practical practice of the market economy system reform.At the level of practices, based on the evolution of China’s reform thinking since 2012, the key policy practices for deepening reform in this period can be elaborated from two sides: one is the construction of six systems, one organization” guided by the concept of Modern Economic System”; the other is the construction of the Belt and Road” under the guidance of the community of human destiny”. These policy practices are the realistic manifestation of thought evolution, and at the same time provide a practical source for thoughts’ further development and innovation. The dynamic interaction between the two aspects promotes the deepening development of the socialist market economy system reform with Chinese characteristics, which has made remarkable realistic achievements in the economic structure, urban and rural regional development, people’s living standards, ecological civilization construction, and new international economic relations.Since the deepening exploration period of the market economy system reform in 2012, the organic combination and effective interaction between China’s reform thoughts and policy practices is not only the realistic embodiment of the basic logic of historical materialism of Marx’s social existence determines social consciousness, social consciousness counteracts social existence”, but also one of the most important experiences of China’s success in the socialist market economic reform since the founding of the People’s Republic of China. It is further one of the most important principles that must be adhered to cope with the current severe domestic and international challenges and to promote the construction of a more mature socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics.