The study examined the effect of external debt on economic growth; evaluate the role of institutional quality; determine the direction of causality; and establish the threshold of external debt relative to GDP for the Nigerian economy. Secondary annual time series data with key variables like economic growth (proxied by GDP), external debt (proxied by external debt outstanding), and institutional quality (proxied by six World Governance Indicators, including Voice & Accountability and Control of Corruption), financial development, human capital, and trade openness were included. The data were sourced from the CBN, World Bank, and World Governance Indicators, and were analyzed using advanced econometric techniques, specifically the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and a Nonlinear Threshold model. The analysis revealed that external debt has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in both the short and long run in Nigeria. Additionally, institutional quality also has positively impacts on economic growth. Causal analysis showed unidirectional causality running from economic growth to external debt, from institutional quality to external debt, and from economic growth to institutional quality. Crucially, a critical external debt-to-GDP ratio of 5.4822% was established as the threshold for the Nigerian economy. From the results, external debt can stimulate growth in Nigeria, particularly when combined with improved institutional quality (e.g., better rule of law and corruption control). However, to achieve rapid and sustainable economic development while avoiding debt servicing burdens that constrain future investment, the Nigerian government should explore alternative infrastructure financing mechanisms. It is recommended to shift reliance from huge external debt to Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models such as Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) and similar arrangements.

As Corona Virus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) emerged from China and spread around the world like a pandemic, COVID-19 has disrupted global economies, with restrictions in movement (both domestic and international) leading to large unemployment, supply chains and gross domestic product (GDP) changes across the world. Nigeria been a densely populated country with inadequate medical facilities was left with only one option which was to follow the policy of lockdown. Restrictions on both people and product flow have disrupted supply chains and accelerated the unemployment crisis, thereby impacting on GDP and trade. Thus, discussing the transmission channels through which the shock (covid-19 pandemic) adversely affect the Nigerian economy is considered beneficial. This paper, therefore, examines the impact of covid-19 shock on international trade and economic growth in Nigeria. This study also investigates the causal relationship between international trade and economic growth in Nigeria. The method employed to achieve the stated objectives is the Recursive Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) technique and Granger Causality, using the quarterly time series data sourced from the World Bank Development Indicator 2020 and Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), for periods between 1985 to 2020.The major findings from the study show that there is a significant negative impact of COVID-19 shock on economic growth and has also impacted negatively on import and export level in Nigeria. It also shows that the impact of COVID-19 was more significant on import than it was on export in Nigeria. Also, the result of from the study revealed that there exists a bidirectional relationship between trade as the sum of exports and imports as a share of GDP and economic growth in Nigeria. With these findings, the study recommends that policymakers take drastic measures to curtail the pandemic and forestall a recession that may be consequent upon the pandemic in Nigeria.

Purpose: This study attempts to empirically investigate the dynamic interplay between inflation and economic growth as well as determining the existence of inflation-growth threshold in Nigeria from 1981 to 2025. The unit root results from ADF and PP revealed that all the variables were stationary at first difference. Methodology: The investigation is done using ARDL bounds test and TAR. Findings: The evidence from the study strongly supports the existence of an inverse relationship between inflation and economic growth in Nigeria in the long run while there is a positive short run relationship between inflation and economic growth which indicates a short-term gain, aligning with the Phillips Curve theory. Further evidence suggests that there is an inflation threshold for Nigeria at 13 per cent. Unique Contribution to Theory, Policy and Practice: The apparent policy implications are: the Central Bank of Nigeria should endeavor to keep the rate of inflation below 13 per cent as this will be growth inducing, since Nigeria's economic growth hinges on disciplined fiscal and monetary policies as such policymakers should exercise restraint in spending and borrowing. The findings further highlight the need to encourage private investment and increase financial liberalization to achieve a sustainable level of economic growth in real terms.

This study examines the linkage between economic growth and non-oil export dynamics in Nigeria using time series data over the period 1970-2014 and employing a simultaneous equation approach. The data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin of various issues were analyzed using the co-integration and error-correction model techniques. The estimation of the model takes into consideration the issue of spurious correlation (arising from unit root in macro variables) as well as the problem of simultaneity bias. It was found out that an increase in the level of per capita income resulting from efficient labour force rate implies increase in productivity, leading to increase and improvement of industrial output. Among the policy recommendations is the need for the Nigerian government to formulate and implement policies that will further develop and boost investment in the industrial sector

The main objective of the study was to investigate the impact of Federal Government tax revenue on economic growth in Nigeria spanning from 1986 – 2024 and variables employed were; Petroleum Profit tax Revenue (PPTR), Company Income Tax Revenue (CITR), Value Added tax revenue (VATR), Excise Duties Tax Revenue (CEDTR), and Personal Income Tax Revenue (PITR). Data were sourced from the Federal Inland Revenue Services (FIRS) publications and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletins. The study adopted an ex-post factor research design and the model was specified using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Public Finance Economic Theory was used as a theoretical framework. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as an econometric technique of data was used in the estimation of the parameter estimates. The findings of the study revealed that Petroleum Profit tax Revenue (PPTR) had a statistically and insignificant positive (1.42662) impact on economic growth (GDP) in Nigeria in the short-run but it had a statistically and significant positive impact on (GDP) in the long run. The findings of the study revealed that Personal Income Tax Revenue (PITR) had a statistically and insignificant positive (1.890096) impact on economic growth (GDP) in the short-run and it had a statistically and significant positive (2.696599) long-run in Nigeria. Based on the findings of the study, the study recommended that the government should intensify efforts in sustaining the positive and significant impact of PPTR and PITR on economic growth in Nigeria for more revenue generation. The main objective of the study was to investigate the impact of Federal Government tax revenue on economic growth in Nigeria spanning from 1986 – 2024 and variables employed were; Petroleum Profit tax Revenue (PPTR), Company Income Tax Revenue (CITR), Value Added tax revenue (VATR), Excise Duties Tax Revenue (CEDTR), and Personal Income Tax Revenue (PITR). Data were sourced from the Federal Inland Revenue Services (FIRS) publications and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletins. The study adopted an ex-post factor research design and the model was specified using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Public Finance Economic Theory was used as a theoretical framework. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as an econometric technique of data was used in the estimation of the parameter estimates. The findings of the study revealed that Petroleum Profit tax Revenue (PPTR) had a statistically and insignificant positive (1.42662) impact on economic growth (GDP) in Nigeria in the short-run but it had a statistically and significant positive impact on (GDP) in the long run. The findings of the study revealed that Personal Income Tax Revenue (PITR) had a statistically and insignificant positive (1.890096) impact on economic growth (GDP) in the short-run and it had a statistically and significant positive (2.696599) long-run in Nigeria. Based on the findings of the study, the study recommended that the government should intensify efforts in sustaining the positive and significant impact of PPTR and PITR on economic growth in Nigeria for more revenue generation.

The study examined the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in Nigeria. A yearly Time-series data was adopted for this study from 2011 to 2023 was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria stock exchange and Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). Data was subjected to linear regression analysis which was used to estimate the parameters of the model. The findings revealed that the coefficient for foreign direct investment (FDI) indicates a positive relationship between FDI and economic growth. This means that a one-unit increase in FDI is associated with increase in economic growth, holding all other variables constant. The coefficient for the real effective exchange rate (ER) indicates a weak positive association with economic growth, For the trade balance (TB), the coefficient suggesting a positive relationship with economic growth. The coefficient for gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is also indicating a positive but small effect on economic growth. This result aligns with economic theory, as investment in physical capital like infrastructure and machinery typically drives productivity and growth The study therefore recommended that Targeted policies should be implemented to attract and retain FDI, particularly in sectors with high growth potential such as manufacturing, infrastructure, and ICT. This includes offering investment incentives, streamlining bureaucratic procedures, ensuring policy consistency, and improving investor protection laws which in turn foster sustainable growth.

This study examines the impact of traditional and digital financial inclusion on Nigeria’s economic growth using quarterly data (2009- 2023). Financial inclusion is measured by the number of depositors at commercial banks, while digital inclusion is captured through mobile banking, point-of-sale (POS), and web-based transactions. Nigeria's economic growth is proxied by real gross domestic product (RGDP). This study is based on the financial intermediation theory and employs a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model in first differences, after verifying that all variables are integrated of order one and are not cointegrated. The results show that neither traditional nor digital financial inclusion variables have a statistically significant short-run effect on real GDP. However, a strong autoregressive behaviour was observed within the financial inclusion indicators themselves, especially for deposit accounts, mobile banking, and POS usage. A substitution effect is observed between POS and web banking, indicating shifts in user preference across digital channels. The findings of this study imply that while financial inclusion systems are becoming more established, their macroeconomic impact may unfold over the long term. This study stresses the importance of strengthening infrastructure, promoting financial literacy, and integrating financial services to maximize their developmental potential.

This study analysed monetary policy shocks, exchange rate devaluation and inflation volatility in West Africa Monetary Zones with the main objective of examining the impact of each of monetary policy shocks, exchange rate devaluation and inflation volatility has on one another in West Africa Monetary Zones. Four hypotheses were formulated to guide the study. Data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletins and World Bank data base. The study used Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) to model inflation volatility before carrying out system Generalized Method of Moments (system-GMM), GARCH analysis and Monte Carlo Simulations. From the results, monetary policy shocks, exchange rate devaluation and inflation volatility in Nigeria persist throughout the study period. The results further revealed that the Nigerian economy is inherently unstable and was characterised by pronounced macroeconomic fluctuations, which was induced mainly by external factors such as oil price fluctuations and the naira exchange rate in the focused period. The results of the BEKK (Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner) parameter estimates show significant evidence of shocks and volatility transmission as well as spill overs in the economy. Invariably, monetary policy shocks, exchange rate depreciation and inflation volatility combine to generate instabilities in the economy in dynamic feedback pattern. The study concluded that interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and trade openness exert influence on the economic growth of Nigeria. Amongst others, the study recommended that government should develop effective export promotion strategies in order to encourage domestic industries to improve on their productivity level for both domestic consumption and exportation.

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of tax revenue generation on economic growth in Nigeria. The objectives of the study include; to examine the effect of petroleum profit tax on the gross domestic product of Nigeria; to investigate the effect of company income tax on the gross domestic product of Nigeria and to ascertain the effect of customs and excise duties on the gross domestic product of Nigeria. The study used secondary sources of data gotten from CBN Statistical bulletin and relevant government publications. The research design used for the study was ex – post facto research design. The study found out that petroleum profit tax does not have significant effect on the gross domestic product of Nigeria; company income tax does not have significant effect on the gross domestic product of Nigeria and customs and excise duties do not have significant effect on the gross domestic product of Nigeria. The study recommended that given the dwindling fortunes of revenue from petroleum related sources, of recent, and the seeming bleak future of oil worldwide, Government should embark on the strategic pursuit of broadening the economy to enhance economic growth and development; Government should work at making the economic environment more conducive for businesses to thrive, as companies income tax could be a veritable complement or even replacement for the PPT.

This study investigates the impact of insurgency on economic growth in Nigeria within the context of the country’s persistent insecurity challenges. Using time series data from 1999 to 2024 sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Global Terrorism Database, and Index Mundi, the study employed descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen co-integration, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to examine the short-run and long-run dynamics between insurgency, discomfort index, terrorism risk index, and real gross domestic product (RGDP). The findings reveal that insurgency exerts a positive but temporary effect on economic growth in the short-run, possibly due to increased emergency-related expenditures, but significantly undermines growth in the long-run. Similarly, the discomfort index exhibited a short-run positive effect but a long-run negative and significant influence on RGDP, reflecting the adverse role of socioeconomic stressors on growth. The terrorism risk index also demonstrated a statistically significant negative effect on economic growth both in the short-run and long-run, with a 1% change in TRI reducing RGDP by approximately 0.66%. These results confirm that insurgency and terrorism pose substantial constraints on Nigeria’s long-term economic development by discouraging investments, displacing populations, and weakening productive capacity. The study concludes that effective counter-insurgency measures, socioeconomic reforms to reduce unemployment and poverty, and community-based peace-building initiatives are critical to mitigating the adverse effects of insecurity on Nigeria’s economic growth.

Nigeria’s economic growth is closely tied to its energy consumption, which remains heavily dependent on nonrenewable sources, particularly petroleum, to drive industrial and commercial activities. While this reliance has fueled economic growth and strengthened Nigeria’s position as a significant oil producer, it has simultaneously intensified environmental degradation. This study examines the interrelationships between energy consumption, economic growth, urbanization, and environmental quality in Nigeria using annual time series data from 1971 to 2020. Employing an autoregressive threshold (ART) testing approach, the analysis captures potential nonlinear dynamics among these variables. The results indicate that the initial phase of fossil fuel consumption contributes to slight improvements in environmental quality; however, long-run dependence on fossil energy significantly deteriorates ecological conditions through pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. The study highlights the urgent need for a structured transition toward renewable energy sources to improve environmental sustainability. Despite Nigeria’s low adoption of renewable technologies, the findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to promote clean energy and foster sustainable economic growth.

This study comparatively investigated the relative impacts of oil and non-oil exports on Nigeria’s economic growth from 1981 to 2023. An ex-post facto research design was used. Multiple regression analysis was adopted, in which the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) was applied. The results showed the presence of long-run relationships among the variables (GDP, oil exports, non-oil exports, and inflation rate), indicating that about 11% of the short-run imbalance is corrected every year. Further findings revealed that oil exports have a positive impact on Nigeria’s GDP in both the short and long runs, while non-oil exports have a negative impact on Nigeria’s GDP in both the short and long runs. The finding that non-oil exports have a negative impact on Nigeria’s economic growth is quite surprising, given the general expectation that diversification away from oil dependence should foster economic expansion. This unexpected outcome constitutes a major contribution of the study, as it challenges the prevailing notion that promoting non-oil exports automatically enhances growth. This research concludes that oil exports have more impact on Nigeria’s economic growth than non-oil exports over the studied period. The study therefore recommends, among others, that the Nigerian government should stabilize and strengthen oil export earnings by investing in upstream oil production and infrastructure, and diversify its non-oil exports by focusing on processed and value-added commodities for increased economic growth.

This study investigates the comparative assessment of institutional reforms, insecurity on sustainable economic development in Nigeria. Despite numerous governance reform initiatives, Nigeria continues to experience weak institutional performance, corruption, and persistent insecurity that undermine sustainable growth. The study adopts an ex-post facto research design and utilizes secondary time-series data sourced from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) and Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), and the Numbeo Crime Index. Descriptive and correlation analyses were applied to examine the effects of institutional quality and insecurity on economic sustainability, proxied by real GDP growth and adjusted net savings. Findings reveal that periods of heightened insecurity, particularly between 2011 and 2017, coincided with declines in GDP growth and savings, while indicators of governance effectiveness, control of corruption, and regulatory quality remained persistently low. This pattern indicates that insecurity adversely affects investment and productivity, whereas institutional reforms exert a weak but positive influence on economic performance. The study concludes that economic sustainability in Nigeria is strongly dependent on institutional efficiency and national security. It recommends strengthening governance capacity and accountability, integrating security operations with socio-economic development programmes, diversifying the economy beyond oil dependence, and enhancing the rule of law and fiscal transparency. Effective coordination between institutional reform and security policy is essential to achieving inclusive, resilient, and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

This study investigates the dynamics of capital market growth and its impact on economic growth in Nigeria from 1990 to 2024, focusing on the contribution of the capital market to GDP, as well as the short-term and long-term effects on economic trends. Secondary data from reputable sources were analyzed using multiple linear regression approach, to quantify the influence of various capital market indicators, including total market capitalization, gross capital formation, and trading volumes, on GDP growth. Additionally, the study explores the role of counter-cyclical factors within the capital market across different business cycles, providing insights into how these dynamics can enhance economic resilience during downturns. The Short-Run Estimates found that (SMC) and (TMC) have a significant positive impact on Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP); while the Long-Run Analysis suggests that a stronger stock market, measured by the All Share Index (ASI), is associated with a more robust economy, indicating it is a foundational component of sustained economic growth. The study demonstrates the significant influence of Nigeria's capital market dynamics on its economic growth The findings are expected to inform policymakers and market participants about the significance of capital market activities in fostering sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

This study examines the relationship between the effective corporate tax and investment levels in the economy in Nigeria. Using a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative panel data analysis from 2011 to 2023 across five Nigerian states with a review of theoretical and empirical literature, the research employs econometric techniques including Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) to estimate long-run effects. The findings reveal that corporate tax rates have a significant inverse relationship with investment, suggesting that high tax burdens deter private sector investment. The research concludes that well-designed tax reforms can significantly promote economic growth by encouraging investment, improving labour participation, and enhancing industrial competitiveness. It recommends progressive tax structures, reduced reliance on indirect taxes, strengthened tax administration through digitalization, and targeted incentives to support inclusive and sustainable economic development. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence from a developing economy context and offers policy insights for fiscal authorities in Nigeria and similar economies.

This study investigates the impact of business cycles on agricultural economic growth in Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, and Kenya from 2001 to 2021, providing critical insights into how macroeconomic fluctuations influence agribusiness investment, food security, and trade stability in Africa. The research is grounded in the need to understand the asymmetric effects of economic dynamics in diverse African contexts, where agriculture remains a vital sector for development and livelihoods. Utilizing dynamic panel data analysis via the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), the study examines the roles of interest rates, inflation, foreign direct investment (FDI), and exchange rate volatility on agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in both short-term and long-term perspectives. Findings indicate that interest rates, FDI, and moderate inflation positively contribute to short-term growth, while exchange rate fluctuations and economic downturns hamper agribusiness financing and food security. Long-term growth relies heavily on sustaining FDI inflows and maintaining stable interest rate policies. By applying GMM, this research advances understanding of the complex, dynamic relationships between business cycles and agricultural development, offering valuable insights into strengthening the resilience of rural economies. The study concludes that policymakers should implement targeted monetary strategies that stabilize investment environments, promote FDI, and control inflation to foster sustainable agricultural growth, ensure food security, and enhance economic stability across the studied countries.

This study looked at how Nigeria’s tax structure affected the country’s economic growth. Revenue is unquestionably essential for the state to fulfill the social contract by providing for the citizens’ basic needs. This study specifically assessed the effect of the petroleum profit tax (PPT), company income tax, value-added tax (VAT), capital gain tax, and stamp duty on Nigeria’s economic growth. Time series data from 1999 to 2023 were used in the study. The pertinent data were taken from the Federal Inland Revenue Service, Bureau of National Statistics, and Central Bank of Nigeria publications. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag regression analysis approach was utilized. According to the study, PPT and company income tax had a significant effect on Nigeria’s economic growth throughout the study period; however, stamp duty had an insignificant positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria. In the meantime, VAT and capital gains tax significantly hampered Nigeria’s economic growth during the study period. The study suggested, among other things, that the government should start a strategic effort to diversify the economy to boost economic growth and development, especially because petroleum-related sources of income are declining.

The potential of ecotourism for sustainability economic growth in Nigeria cannot overemphasized due to the opportunities and challenges it brings. Ecotourism plays a crucial role in Nigeria’s economy and sustainability by driving revenue generation, job creation, and environmental conservation. It fosters responsible travel practices, reducing environmental degradation while enhancing conservation efforts. Ecotourism drives sustainable economic growth by creating jobs. Theoretically, economic and environmental theories associated with ecotourism includes Sustainable Development Theory, Ecological Modernization Theory, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Theory, Triple Bottom Line (TBL) Theory, and Common-Pool Resource (CPR) Theory. Ecotourism at global level that have been examined are that of Costa Rica and Kenya. Major ecotourism sites in nigeria include Yankari Game Reserve (Bauchi State), Cross River National Park (Cross River State), Obudu Mountain Resort (Cross River State), Gashaka-Gumti National Park (Taraba and Adamawa States), Erin-Ijesha Waterfalls (Osun State). Policies governing ecotourism in Nigeria are National Ecotourism Policy, The Forestry and Wildlife Conservation Policies, and the Nigeria Tourism Development Master Plan. Its contribution includes employment generation, contribution to GDP, and infrastructure development. Challenges includes inadequate infrastructure, weak policy implementation, poor governance, security challenges, environmental degradation and climatic change. The qualitative methodology approach has been used in form of a systematic literature review.

Abstract - This research study examined the impact of financing grain crop production on economic growth in Nigeria with the use of secondary time series data for a period of twenty-three years (2000-2023). Ex-post facto research design was adopted employing Unit root test and ARDL approach. Specific references were made to one of the most relevant macroeconomic variables such as loans and advances. Empirical results reveal that loans and advances considered for the analysis had insignificant effect on economic growth in Nigeria during the period under review, implying that financing is an important determinant of crop grain productivity in Nigeria. The real Gross Domestic Product is the dependent variable proxied economic growth. The result revealed that; 1 percent increase in financing grains production leads to about 0.011% increase in real gross domestic product (RGDP). It was found that coefficient of FGP is positive, indicating positive relationship between FGP and RGDP, and this is in line with a-priori. Also revealed; 1 percent increase in interest rate leads to about 0.002% decrease in real gross domestic product (RGDP). It was found that coefficient of FGP is negative, indicating negative relationship between INTR and RGDP, and this is in line with a-priori. The study therefore recommended that, government should provide financing policies in place in terms of financing crop grain production and interest rate that will boast the agricultural sector output to cushion effects of high cost of living in the country.

This study quantitatively assessed how financial innovation and inclusion affect Nigeria's economic growth between 2014 and 2023. Using time-series data from the 2023 Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and the World Development Indicator, the research applied the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Multiple Regression technique. The key findings are: Positive Impact of Innovation: Financial inclusion and digital banking channels, specifically ATM and mobile transactions, were found to have a positive impact on economic growth, Strongest Digital Drivers: The value of Point of Sale (POS) transactions had the most powerful positive effect on growth, followed by ATM, mobile, and web transactions, Inconsistent Results: While the value of POS and web transactions was generally significant, their impact was not entirely consistent throughout the analysis and Bank Branches Ineffective: Notably, the number of bank branches (NBB) showed no positive impact on economic growth, suggesting that the high capital expenditure on physical branches does not drive the economy. As a result of these findings, the paper concluded that financial inclusion and banking sector innovations have an important role to play in fostering economic growth in Nigeria. Finally, the paper recommended that recent technology should be adopted to enhance the use recent innovation and opening of more banks’ branches should be encouraged to enhance the existing financial institutions in Nigeria.