Eastward Propagation Research Articles

Enhanced Feedback between Shallow Convection and Low-Level Moisture Convergence Leads to Improved Simulation of MJO Eastward Propagation

Abstract Recent study indicates that the non-instantaneous interaction of convection and circulation is essential for evolution of large-scale convective systems. It is incorporated into cumulus parameterization (CP) by relating cloud-base mass flux of shallow convection to a composite of subcloud moisture convergence in the past 6 h. Three pairs of 19-yr simulations with original and modified CP schemes are conducted in a tropical channel model to verify their ability to reproduce the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). More coherent tropical precipitation and improved eastward propagation signal are observed in the simulations with the modified CP schemes based on the non-instantaneous interaction. It is found that enhanced feedback between shallow convection and low-level moisture convergence results in amplified shallow convective heating, and then generates reinforced moisture convergence, which transports more moisture upward. The improved simulations of eastward propagation of the MJO are largely attributed to higher specific humidity below 600 hPa in the free troposphere to the east of maximum rainfall center, which is related to stronger boundary layer moisture convergence forced by shallow convection. Large-scale horizontal advection causes asymmetric moisture tendencies relative to rainfall center (positive to the east and negative to the west) and also gives rise to eastward propagation. The zonal advection, especially the advection of anomalous specific humidity by mean zonal wind, is found to dominate the difference of horizontal advection between each pair of simulations. The results indicate the vital importance of non-instantaneous feedback between shallow convection and moisture convergence for convection organization and the eastward MJO propagation.

Sensitivity experiments on the role of moisture in the eastward propagation of MJO

Sensitivity experiments on the role of moisture in the eastward propagation of MJO

Abnormal warm sea‐surface temperature in the Indian Ocean, active potential vorticity over the Tibetan Plateau, and severe flooding along the Yangtze River in summer 2020

AbstractExcessive precipitation was observed throughout the Yangtze River Valley during the record‐breaking Meiyu season in 2020. However, the mechanism of extreme precipitation over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River remains unclear. Our results show that the activities of high potential vorticity (PV) systems during their eastward propagation over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) should be responsible for the above‐normal rainfall not only over western China but also over eastern China. The activity of high‐PV systems is characterized by a prominent diurnal cycle, and their formation is closely related to the thermal contrast between the near‐surface and lower atmosphere. In the morning, surface sensible heating increases sharply after sunrise, leading to a decrease in diabatic heating with height. Accordingly, PV weakens in the lower atmosphere, and the formation of high‐PV systems reaches a minimum. An increase in turbulence increases near‐surface evaporation, which in turn reduces surface diabatic heating. At the same time, cloud formation increases diabatic heating at approximately 400 hPa. Consequently, the thermal contrast below 400 hPa leads to an increase in diabatic heating with height, favoring the generation of high‐PV systems. Compared with the climatology, an excessive water vapor supply from the anomalous anticyclone over the northern Bay of Bengal, forced by the Indian Ocean warming in 2020, contributes to a stronger thermal contrast and enhanced activity of high‐PV systems over the TP. The arrival timing of high‐PV systems at the eastern flank of the TP plays an important role in the subsequent development of these systems. Early arrival in the afternoon or evening is generally accompanied by air convergence and sufficient water vapor supply downstream of the TP, which favors the systems moving off the TP and influencing precipitation downstream.

Baroclinic instability and large‐scale wave propagation in a planetary‐scale atmosphere

AbstractMidlatitude atmospheric variability is dominated by the dynamics of the baroclinically unstable jet stream, which meanders and sheds eddies at the scale of the Rossby deformation radius. The eddies interact with each other and with the jet, affecting the variability on a wide range of scales, but the mechanisms of planetary‐scale fluctuations of the jet are not well understood. Here, we develop a theoretical framework to explore the stability of planetary‐scale motions in an idealized two‐layer model of the atmosphere. The model is based on a combination of vertical shear and the Sverdrup relation, providing the dynamic link between the two layers, with meridional eddy heat fluxes parameterized as a diffusive process with the memory of past baroclinicity of the jet. We find that a planetary‐scale instability exists if the vertical shear of the jet does not exceed a particular threshold. The inclusion of the eddy‐memory effect enables westward or eastward propagation of planetary waves relative to the barotropic mean flow. Importantly, we find growing planetary waves that propagate slowly westward or are stationary, which could have important implications for the formation of atmospheric blocking events. Our theoretical results suggest that, with ongoing polar amplification due to global warming and the corresponding reduction of the vertical shear of the mean wind, the background conditions for the growth of planetary‐scale waves via planetary‐scale baroclinic instability are becoming more favorable.

Effect of vertical overturning circulation scale and moist static energy tendency on MJO phase speed

The combined effects of vertical overturning circulation (VOC) zonal length scale and moist static energy (MSE) tendency zonal asymmetry on MJO phase speed were investigated based on diagnosis of ERA-Interim data over a 40-year period (1979–2019). In a key region (80°–100°E), 128 MJO events were selected. It was found that the larger the VOC zonal length scale, the faster the MJO eastward propagation. The correlation coefficient between them was 0.52, exceeding the 99% confidence level. A significant positive correlation (0.59) was also identified between the phase speed and MSE tendency zonal asymmetry. A linear regression model based on the aforementioned two parameters was constructed, and the phase speed could be estimated based on the model. The correlation coefficient between the reconstructed phase speed and its observed counterpart was 0.73, exceeding the 99% confidence level with an F-test. A composite analysis of the fast and slow groups indicated that the VOC zonal length scale was modulated by the background state. An El Niño (La Niña)-like SST pattern and associated precipitation anomalies promoted a larger (smaller) VOC zonal length scale and thus a faster (slower) propagation speed. A sensitivity test with a reference point in a different longitudinal zone (120°–140°E) was conducted. Again, there were significant relationships between the MJO phase speed and the two parameters. The correlation between the reconstructed and observed phase speed was 0.67, exceeding the 99% confidence level.摘要本文通过对1979–2019年ERA-I再分析资料进行诊断分析, 研究了MJO垂直环流 (VOC) 纬向尺度和湿静力能 (MSE) 趋势纬向不对称性对MJO传播速度的综合影响. 研究结果表明, MJO传播速度与VOC的纬向尺度和MSE趋势纬向梯度之间存在显著的正相关关系. 基于上述两个参数, 本文建立了线性回归模型, 该模型可以较好的估计MJO的传播速度. 本文对上述结果在不同的地理区域 (120°–140°E) 进行了敏感性测试. MJO传播速度仍然与这两个参数之间有显著的正相关关系.

Intraseasonal and synoptic climate variability of surface solar radiation over South‐West Indian Ocean: Regional climate modelling

AbstractThe abundant surface solar radiation (SSR) over South‐West Indian Ocean (SWIO) presents significant temporal variability. To characterize this temporal variability is important for the application of solar energy, such as photovoltaic industry. This article studied the intraseasonal and synoptic climate variability of SSR by regional climate modelling over SWIO region. The regional climate model, RegCM4's skill is first evaluated through analysing the seasonal mean SSR with the precipitation, near surface temperature and total cloud cover in austral summer and winter. The basic validation of those simulated parameters with the reference data showed model's performance on SSR. The austral summer (November–February) 1999–2008 was chosen to search the Madden–Julian Oscillation patterns and tropical temperate troughs which are the major expression of intraseasonal and synoptic climate variability. The circulation, moisture fluxes, and radiation fluxes have been checked at the beginning for RegCM4's input dataset (ERA‐Interim) to find the signals. Then, the output simulation results were taking into account to see if the model can reproduce the intraseasonal and synoptic climate variability or not. SSR from SARAH‐E (CM SAF@5 km) as the reference dataset in the end has been used to validate the simulated patterns, which showed that the eastward SSR anomalies propagation and negative SSR anomalies bands can be observed in RegCM4 and the according satellite dataset. These results identified and explained SSR's intraseasonal and synoptic climate variability over SWIO region, which provide a way through RegCM to perform SSR's evaluation and prediction.

Excitation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in Atmospheric Adjustment to Equatorial Heating

AbstractWe study the adjustment of the tropical atmosphere to localized surface heating using a Lagrangian atmospheric model (LAM) that simulates a realistic Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)—the dominant, eastward-propagating mode of tropical intraseasonal variability modulating atmospheric convection. Idealized warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of different aspect ratios and magnitudes are imposed in the equatorial Indian Ocean during MJO-neutral conditions and then maintained for 15 days. The experiments then continue for several more months. Throughout these experiments, we observe a robust generation of an MJO event, evident in precipitation, velocity, temperature, and moisture fields, which becomes a key element of atmospheric adjustment along with the expected Kelvin and Rossby waves. The MJO circulation pattern gradually builds up during the first week, and then starts to propagate eastward at a speed of 5–7 m s−1. The upper-level quadrupole circulation characteristic of the MJO becomes evident around day 14, with two anticyclonic gyres generated by the Gill-type response to convective heating and two cyclonic gyres forced by the excited Kelvin waves and extratropical Rossby wave trains. A moisture budget analysis shows that the eastward propagation of the MJO is controlled largely by the anomalous advection of moisture and by the residual between anomalous moisture accumulation due to converging winds and precipitation. The initial MJO event is followed by successive secondary events, maintaining the MJO for several more cycles. Thus, this study highlights the fundamental role that the MJO can play in the adjustment of the moist equatorial atmosphere to localized surface heating.

Typical Circulation Patterns and Associated Mechanisms for Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley during 1981\u20132020

Persistent heavy rainfall events (PHREs) over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) during 1981–2020 are classified into three types (type-A, type-B and type-C) according to pattern correlation. The characteristics of the synoptic systems for the PHREs and their possible development mechanisms are investigated. The anomalous cyclonic disturbance over the southern part of the YHRV during type-A events is primarily maintained and intensified by the propagation of Rossby wave energy originating from the northeast Atlantic in the mid–upper troposphere and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets from the western Pacific in the mid–lower troposphere. The zonal propagation of Rossby wave packets and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets during type-B events are more coherent than those for type-A events, which induces eastward propagation of stronger anomaly centers of geopotential height from the northeast Atlantic Ocean to the YHRV and a meridional anomaly in geopotential height over the Asian continent. Type-C events have “two ridges and one trough” in the high latitudes of the Eurasian continent, but the anomalous intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the trough of the YHRV region are weaker than those for type-A and type-B events. The composite synoptic circulation of four PHREs in 2020 is basically consistent with that of the corresponding PHRE type. The location of the South Asian high (SAH) in three of the PHREs in 2020 moves eastward as in the composite of the three types, but the position of the WPSH of the four PHREs is clearly westward and northward. Two water vapor conveyor belts and two cold air conveyor belts are tracked during the four PHREs in 2020, but the water vapor path from the western Pacific is not seen, which may be caused by the westward extension of the WPSH.

Role of convection\u2013circulation coupling in the propagation mechanism of the Madden\u2013Julian Oscillation over the Maritime Continent in a climate model

This study investigates the role of convection–circulation coupling on the simulated eastward propagation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Maritime Continent (MC). Experiments are conducted with the European Centre Hamburg Model Version 5 (ECHAM5) coupled with the one-column ocean model—Snow-Ice-Thermocline (SIT) and two different cumulus schemes, Nordeng-Tiedtke (E5SIT-Nord) and Tiedtke (E5SIT-Tied). During the early phase of MJO composites, the E5SIT-Nord simulation reveals stronger intraseasonal anomalies in the apparent heat source (Q1) over the convective center, however, the E5SIT-Tied produces a stronger background Q1, suggesting that deep convection prevails over the MC but does not couple with the MJO circulation. Similarly, in the E5SIT-Tied simulation, in-column moisture is kept mostly by local deep convection over the MC, which is in contrast to the well-correlated relationship between moisture anomaly and MJO circulation in E5SIT-Nord. A case study based on an observational MJO reveals similar biases concerning of convection–circulation coupling emerges within a few days of simulations. The E5SIT-Tied simulation produces weaker heating at the convective center of the MJO than the E5SIT-Nord a few days after model initiation, resulting weaker subsidence to the east and less favorable for propagation. The present findings highlight the instantaneous responses of cumulus parameterization schemes to MJO-related environmental changes can further affect intraseasonal variability through altering convection–circulation coupling over the MC. Physical schemes of moist convection are essential to realistically represent this coupling and thereby improve the simulation of the eastward propagation of the MJO.

Effects of Suppressed Transient Eddies by the Tibetan Plateau on the East Asian Summer Monsoon

AbstractIt is known that the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can weaken the transient eddies (TEs) transported along the westerly jet stream. This study investigates the effects of the persistently suppressed TEs by the TP on the East Asian summer monsoon and the associated mechanisms using the NCAR Community Earth System Model. A nudging method is used to modify the suppression of the TEs without changing the steady dynamic and thermodynamic effects of the TP. The suppressed TEs by the TP weaken the East Asian westerly jet stream through the weakened poleward TE vorticity flux. On the one hand, the weakened jet stream leads to less (more) rainfall in northern (southern) East Asia by inducing anomalous moisture convergence, midtropospheric warm advection, and upper-level divergence, particularly in early summer when the eastward propagation of TE suppression by the TP is strong. On the other hand, the precipitation anomalies can shift the East Asian westerly jet stream southward and promote the moisture convergence in southern East Asia through latent heat release. Therefore, the persistent suppression of the TEs leads to a southward shift of the East Asian rain belt by a convective feedback, as it was previously found that the steady thermodynamic and dynamic forcings of the TP favored a northward shift of the rain belt. This study suggests that the anomalously weak TEs can lead to a rainfall change (more in the south, less in the north) over East Asia.

Zircon (U-Th)/(He-Pb) double-dating constraints on the interplay between thrust deformation and foreland basin architecture, Sevier foreland basin, Utah

AbstractThe Cretaceous Cordilleran foreland basin strata exposed in the Book Cliffs of eastern Utah and western Colorado have motivated important concepts linking thrust belt deformation and foreland basin evolution largely on the basis of sequence stratigraphy, stratal architecture, and sediment provenance evolution. However, these methods and approaches generally cannot provide critical insights into the temporal or causal linkages between foreland basin architecture and thrust belt deformation. This is in part due to discrepancies in age resolution and lack of evidence with which to directly couple sediment supply and basin-fill evolution to thrust belt unroofing. New detrital zircon (DZ) geothermochronometric data from Upper Cretaceous proximal to distal foreland basin strata in the Book Cliffs provide new quantitative insights into sediment origin and dispersal in relation to thrust belt deformation and exhumation. Detailed DZ U-Pb and (U-Th)/He double dating reveals that the Book Cliffs foredeep detritus was mainly delivered by transverse routing systems from two major sources: (1) Neoproterozoic and Lower Paleozoic strata from the central Utah Sevier thrust belt, and (2) Permian–Jurassic and synorogenic Cretaceous strata recycled from the frontal part of the thrust belt. A dramatic increase in Sierran magmatic arc and Yavapai-Mazatzal DZ U-Pb ages, as well as Paleozoic DZ He ages, in the deeper marine portions of the foreland basin points to axial fluvial and littoral sediment input from the Sierran magmatic arc and Mogollon highland sources. Both transverse and axial transport systems acted contemporaneously during eastward propagation of the Late Cretaceous thrust belt. DZ He depositional lag time estimates reveal three distinct exhumation pulses in the Sevier thrust belt in the Cenomanian and Campanian. The exhumation pulses correlate with shifts in sediment provenance, dispersal style, and progradation rates in the foreland basin. These new data support conceptual models that temporally and causally link accelerated exhumation and unroofing in the thrust belt to increases in sediment supply and rapid clastic progradation in the foreland basin.

Simultaneous Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones in the Northern Indian Ocean: Differential Response and Triggering Mechanisms

The northern Indian Ocean, comprising of two marginal seas, the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), is known for the occurrence of tropical cyclones. The simultaneous occurrence of the cyclones Luban in the AS and Titli in the BoB is a rare phenomenon, and, in the present study, we examined their contrasting upper ocean responses and what led to their formation in October 2018. Being a category-2 cyclone, the maximum cooling of sea surface temperature associated with Titli was 1°C higher than that of Luban, a category-1 cyclone. The higher tropical cyclone heat potential in the BoB compared with the AS was one of the reasons why Titli was more intense than Luban. The enhancement of chlorophylla(Chl-a) and net primary productivity (NPP) by Luban was 2- and 3.7-fold, respectively, while that by Titli was 3- and 5-fold, respectively. Despite this, the magnitudes of both Chl-aand NPP were higher in the AS compared with the BoB. Consistent with physical and biological responses, the CO2outgassing flux associated with Titli was 12-fold higher in comparison to the pre-cyclone value, while that associated with Luban was 10-fold higher. Unlike the Chl-aand NPP, the magnitude of CO2flux in the BoB was higher than that in the AS. Although the cyclones Luban and Titli originated simultaneously, their generating mechanisms were quite different. What was common for the genesis of both cyclones was the pre-conditioning of the upper ocean in 2018 by the co-occurrence of El Niño and the positive phase of Indian Ocean dipole along with the cold phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation, all of which worked in tandem and warmed the AS and parts of the BoB. What triggered the genesis of Luban in the AS was the arrival of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the mixed Rossby-gravity wave during the first week of October. The genesis of Titli in the BoB was triggered by the eastward propagation of the MJO and the associated enhanced convection from the AS into the region of origin of Titli along with the arrival of the downwelling oceanic Rossby wave.

The MJO on the Equatorial Beta Plane: An Eastward-Propagating Rossby Wave Induced by Meridional Moisture Advection

AbstractLinearized wave solutions on the equatorial beta plane are examined in the presence of a background meridional moisture gradient. Of interest is a slow, eastward-propagating n = 1 mode that is unstable at planetary scales and only exists for a small range of zonal wavenumbers (). The mode dispersion curve appears as an eastward extension of the westward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave solution. This mode is therefore termed the eastward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave (ERW). The zonal wavenumber-2 ERW horizontal structure consists of a low-level equatorial convergence center flanked by quadrupole off-equatorial gyres, and resembles the horizontal structure of the observed MJO. An analytic, leading-order dispersion relationship for the ERW shows that meridional moisture advection imparts eastward propagation, and that the smallness of a gross moist stability–like parameter contributes to the slow phase speed. The ERW is unstable near planetary scales when low-level easterlies moisten the column. This moistening could come from either zonal moisture advection or surface fluxes or a combination thereof. When westerlies instead moisten the column, the ERW is damped and the westward-propagating long Rossby wave is unstable. The ERW does not exist when the meridional moisture gradient is too weak. A moist static energy budget analysis shows that the ERW scale selection is partly due to finite-time-scale convective adjustment and less effective zonal wind–induced moistening at smaller scales. Similarities in the phase speed, preferred scale, and horizontal structure suggest that the ERW is a beta-plane analog of the MJO.

Dynamical propagation and growth mechanisms for convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves over the Indian Ocean

AbstractConvectively coupled equatorial Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are high‐impact tropical weather systems that can lead to severe flooding over the Maritime Continent. Here, a vorticity budget for CCKWs over the Indian Ocean is constructed using reanalysis data, to identify the basic mechanisms of eastward propagation and growth. The budget is reasonably well closed, with a small residual/subgrid‐scale term. In the lower troposphere, CCKWs behave like strongly modified theoretical equatorial Kelvin waves. Vortex stretching, from the divergence of the Kelvin wave acting on planetary vorticity (the term), is the sole mechanism by which the vorticity structure of a theoretical Kelvin wave propagates eastward. In the lower and middle troposphere, this term is also the key mechanism for the eastward propagation of CCKWs but, due to subtleties in its structure and phasing linked to a combination of modal structures, it also contributes to growth. Unlike in the theoretical Kelvin wave, other vorticity source terms also play a role in the propagation and growth of CCKWs. In particular, vortex stretching from relative vorticity (the term) is the largest source term, and this leads strongly to growth, through interactions between the background and perturbation vorticity and divergence. Horizontal vorticity advection by the background flow contributes to propagation, and also acts to retard the growth of the CCKW. The sum of the source terms in this complex vorticity budget leads to eastward propagation and growth of CCKWs. The structure and vorticity budget of CCKWs in the upper troposphere is quite unlike that of a Kelvin wave, and appears to arise as a forced response to the lower‐tropospheric structure. The implications for numerical weather prediction and climate simulations are discussed.

Seasonality in Prediction Skill of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Associated Dynamics in Version 2 of NASA's GEOS‐S2S Forecast System

AbstractThe prediction skill of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in Version 2 of NASA's Global Earth Observing System Subseasonal to Seasonal (GEOS‐S2S) forecast system is investigated for winter and summer focusing on moistening‐related processes crucial for eastward propagating MJO activity. It is found that the annual bivariate correlation of the Real‐time Multivariate MJO time series between prediction and observation is ∼0.70, ∼0.57, and ∼0.50 at 20‐, 25‐, and 30‐day forecast leads. Correlation at long‐leads (>30 days) is noticeably higher for boreal summer initial conditions (June‐September [JJAS]), with correlations remaining above 0.5 at 35–40 days leads. Correlations are lower for boreal winter initial conditions from January through March (JFM), dropping to ∼0.5 at 25‐day lead, still comparable to the skills in the other reliable S2S forecast systems.The predicted eastward MJO propagation across the Indo‐western Pacific sector is well captured in JJAS, but is slower than observed in JFM. Investigations of the moisture field and advection and moisture sink, moist static energy (MSE) budget, and tropical circulation/pressure responses to the MJO convective heating reveal that, in JFM, those responses and moistening processes, especially the vertical MSE advection, are underestimated over and to the east of the Maritime Continent when the MJO anomaly approaches from the west. In contrast, those processes are well represented in JJAS, although moistening is overestimated due to large surface evaporation. This study suggests that improvement of the moistening tendency over that region in the boreal winter could contribute to further increases in MJO prediction skill of the GEOS‐S2S system.

Assessing the role of air-sea coupling in predicting Madden-Julian Oscillation with an atmosphere-ocean coupled model

AbstractThe Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) provides an important source of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictability. Improved MJO prediction can be beneficial to S2S prediction of global climate and associated weather extremes. In this study, hindcasts based on an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (CGCM) are compared to those based on atmosphere general circulation models (AGCMs) to investigate influences of air-sea interactions on MJO prediction. Our results suggest that MJO prediction skill can be extended about one week longer in the CGCM hindcasts than AGCM-only experiments, particularly for boreal winter predictions.Further analysis suggests that improved MJO prediction in the CGCM is closely associated with improved representation of moistening processes. Compared to the AGCM experiments, the CGCM better predicts the boundary-layer moisture preconditioning to the east of MJO convection, which is generally considered crucial for triggering MJO deep convection. Meanwhile, the widely extended east-west asymmetric structure in free-tropospheric moisture tendency anomalies relative to the MJO convection center as seen in the observations is also well predicted in the CGCM. Improved prediction of MJO moisture processes in CGCM is closely associated with better representation of the zonal scale of MJO circulation and stronger Kelvin waves to the east of MJO convection, both of which have been recently suggested conductive for MJO eastward propagation. The above improvements by including air-sea coupling could be largely attributed to the realistic MJO-induced SST fluctuations through the convection-SST feedback. This study confirms a critical role of atmosphere-ocean coupling for the improvement of MJO prediction.

Large Enhancements in Southern Hemisphere Satellite‐Observed Trace Gases Due to the 2019/2020 Australian Wildfires

AbstractThe 2019/2020 Australian wildfires emitted large quantities of atmospheric pollutant gases and aerosols. Using state‐of‐the‐art near‐real‐time satellite measurements of tropospheric composition, we present an analysis of several emitted trace gases and their long‐range transport, and compare to the previous (2018/2019) fire season. Observations of carbon monoxide (CO) show that fire emissions were so intense that the distinct Australian fire plume managed to circumnavigate the Southern Hemisphere (SH) within a few weeks, with eastward propagation over the South Pacific, South America, the South Atlantic, Africa, and the Indian Ocean. Elevated atmospheric methane levels were also detected in January 2020 fire plumes over the Pacific, defined using CO as a plume tracer, even though sampling was restricted spatially by aerosols and clouds. Observations also show significant enhancements of methanol (CH3OH) from the fires, where CH3OH:CO enhancement ratios increased within the aged plume downwind over the South Pacific indicating secondary in‐plume CH3OH formation.

Electrified Postsunrise Ionospheric Perturbations at Millstone Hill

AbstractWe provide evidence that midlatitude postsunrise traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) are comprised of electrified waves with an eastward propagation component. The post‐sunrise gravity wave (GW) wind‐induced dynamo action effectively generated periodic meridional polarization electric fields (PEFs), facilitating TID zonal propagation in a similar fashion as GW‐driven neutral perturbations. A combination of near‐simultaneous eastward and upward observations using the Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar along with 2‐dimensional total electron content maps allowed resolution of TID vertical and horizontal propagation as well as zonal ion drifts (meridional PEFs). In multiple observations, oscillated in the early morning during periods when TIDs exhibited downward phase progression, 30–60 min period, 140 m/s eastward speed, and 70 km vertical wavelength. Inside these TIDs, multiple flow vortexes occurred in a vertical‐zonal plane spanning the ionospheric topside and bottomside. Subsequently, PEFs weakened after a few hours as TID horizontal wavefronts rotated clockwise.

The Dependence of Tropical Modes of Variability on Zonal Asymmetry

AbstractTropical modes of variability, including the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are challenging to represent in climate models. Previous studies suggest their fundamental dependence on zonal asymmetry, but such dependence is rarely addressed with fully coupled ocean dynamics. This study fills the gap by using fully coupled, idealized Community Earth System Model (CESM) and comparing two nominally ocean‐covered configurations with and without a meridional boundary. For the MJO‐like intraseasonal mode, its separation from equatorial Kelvin waves and the eastward propagation of its convective and dynamic signals depend on the zonal gradient of the mean state. For the ENSO‐like interannual mode, in the absence of the ocean's meridional boundary, a circum‐equatorial dominant mode emerges with distinct ocean dynamics. The interpretation of the dependence of these modes on zonal asymmetry is relevant to their representation in realistic climate models.

Recurrent pattern of extreme fire weather in California

Historical wildfire events in California have shown a tendency to occur every five to seven years with a rapidly increasing tendency in recent decades. This oscillation is evident in multiple historical climate records, some more than a century long, and appears to be continuing. Analysis shows that this 5–7 year oscillation is linked to a sequence of anomalous large-scale climate patterns with an eastward propagation in both the ocean and atmosphere. While warmer temperature emerges from the northern central Pacific to the west coast of California, La Niña pattern develops simultaneously, implying that the lifecycle of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that takes multiple years to form could be a trigger. The evolving patterns of the Pacific-to-North America atmospheric teleconnection suggest the role of tropical and subtropical forcing embedded in this lifecycle. These results highlight the semi-cyclical hydrological behavior as a climate driver for wildfire variability in California.