Easting Research Articles

Assessing the extended‐range forecast skills of the extreme heat events over South China based on three S2S models

AbstractThis paper assesses the extended‐range forecast skills of the extreme heat events (EHEs) over South China based on three subseasonal‐to‐seasonal models (European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF], National Centers for Environmental Prediction [NCEP], and China Meteorological Administration [CMA]). Overall, ECMWF has the best skill, NCEP the second and CMA the poorest. The predicting skills of EHEs depend on the predicting skills of relevant circulation. Cases studies (June 4–6, 1999, August 19–29, 2009, and August 3–5, 2010) show that the three models generally predict circulation anomalies weaker than observation, leading to the misses of some extreme heat days (EHDs). In these cases, ECMWF is able to well predict the influence of tropical circulation, capture the major characteristics of mid‐latitude circulation but with a slower propagating speed. NCEP could capture the main signals of tropical (mid‐latitude) circulation, but with slower propagating speed (slower propagating speed, deviated direction or more northward location). CMA might produce some EHDs but is derived from the circulation anomaly with the wrong origin or location. Therefore, ECMWF could predict the EHEs most accurately, NCEP could reasonably predict the formation of EHEs and tend to have more delayed predictions, while CMA has the poorest skill due to the false origins of anomalies. These results suggest potential ways to improve the current models' extended‐range forecast skills.

Realtime Selection of Optimal Source Parameters Using Ground Motion Envelopes

It is increasingly common for seismic networks to operate multiple independent automatic algorithms to characterise earthquakes in real-time, such as in earthquake early warning (EEW) or even standard network practice. Commonly used methods to select the best solution at a given time are simple and use ad hoc rules. An absolute measure of how well a solution (event origin and magnitude) matches the observations by the goodness-of-fit between the observed and predicted envelopes is a robust and independent metric to select optimal solutions. We propose such a measure that is calculated as a combination of amplitude and cross-correlation fit. This metric can be used to determine when a preferred solution reaches an appropriate confidence level for alerting, or indeed to compare two (or more) different event characterisations directly. We demonstrate that our approach can also be used to suppress false alarms commonly seen at seismic networks. Tests using the 10 largest earthquakes in Switzerland between 2013 and 2020, and events that caused false alarms demonstrate that our approach can effectively prefer solutions with small errors in location and magnitude, and can clearly identify and discard false origins or incorrect magnitudes, at all time scales, starting with the first event characterisation.

Visceral Aorta Electrocautery Septotomy to Allow Branched Endovascular Aortic Repair in Ruptured Chronic Post-Dissection Thoraco-Abdominal Aneurysm.

Endovascular repair of chronic post-dissection thoraco-abdominal aortic aneurysms (PD-TAAA) presents specific technical challenges due to the presence of chronic septum. Small true lumen diameter and false lumen visceral vessel origin can make branched endograft prohibitive. Septotomy may allow to overcome these challenges in cases of high complex anatomy. We describe the application of electrocautery septotomy to the visceral aorta segment to deploy an off-the-shelf branched endograft in a chronic PD-TAAA rupture with true lumen collapse. Electrocautery septotomy can be an effective adjunctive technique to facilitate branched endograft, overcoming technical challenges associated with the endovascular treatment of chronic PD-TAAA. Electrocautery septotomy is an adjunctive technique that can facilitate endovascular treatment of post-dissection thoraco-abdominal aneurysm. By creating a common lumen, this technique might reduce the number of re-interventions associated with PD-TAAA endovascular exclusion.

From land to glass: An integrated approach for quality and traceability assessment of top Italian wines

The wine sector in Italy is a significant contributor to the country's economy. Furthermore, Italy is renowned for producing some of the world's most excellent wines. For these reasons, the wine industry is susceptible to frauds, such as reporting false origin claims in labels. In this context, this paper aims to provide traceability and quality tool to recognise wines from different Italian regions, i.e. Calabria, Piemonte, Sicily and Veneto, from selected winemakers that reach the Top 10% in almost three international rankings. The multi-elemental analysis of soil and wine samples by ICP-MS and their chemometric treatments have identified Ni, Cs, Li, Ca, Ba, Pb, Rb, Sb, Fe and U as the most informative variables to reach optimal classification of samples. The analytical data have been used to develop an original managerial framework to leverage Pareto's Principle for effective brand-land management in the top wine segment.

Customs Duty Evasion: Consequences and Suggestions: The GCC Countries Perspective

Customs duty has existed in Gulf Countries for over a century. In 2002, it took its institutional form by implementing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Common Customs Law. Since then, customs duty evasion has been a problem for GCC governments and companies. Customs authorities continuously audit and eliminate such illegal activities by imposing penalties and taking necessary actions within the provisions of the law. This article highlights various customs offences, including false origin, incorrect tariff classification, under-declaration of customs valuation, and lack of inventory reconciliation leading toward smuggling. The article also highlights the consequences faced by businesses involved in such illegal activities. To combat and eliminate these offences during import/export procedures, the paper proposes some suggestions to companies, which will eventually help them avoid the administrative burden and financial and reputational loss resulting from such frauds. Customs duty evasion, Penalties, Smuggling, Origin, Valuation, Tariff Classification, Inventory reconciliation, Voluntary disclosure, GCC countries

Near infrared spectroscopy and multivariate statistical analysis as rapid tools for the geographical origin assessment of Italian hazelnuts

The geographical origin assessment of Italian hazelnuts is nowadays a relevant topic, aimed at the protection of provenience certificates. Near Infrared (NIR) spectroscopy could be a functional candidate for preventing and fighting illegal activities related to this matrix. The present study focuses on the exploitability of the NIR technique on the ‘hazelnut chain’ (fresh, roasted and paste), against the false origin declaration frauds, mainly concerning some of the best Italian varieties (‘Nocciola Piemonte’, ‘Tonda Gentile Romana’, ‘Mortarella’). 216 spectra were recorded, for a total of n = 144 for the training set, and n = 72 for the validation set, considering fresh (n = 57), roasted (n = 107), and paste (n = 52) hazelnuts as different matrices. The training set sample selection was made according to a Design of Experiment (DoE), that considered diverse factors, such as harvesting year, storage shelf life, and presence of peel. The validation set was composed of blended samples generated by mixing Italian and non-Italian ones, and real samples bought from local markets. Multivariate Statistical Analysis was employed for data handling and elaboration, both unsupervised and supervised models, Principal Component Analysis, and Partial Least Square-Discriminant Analysis were built to simplify, observe, and classify the samples. A variables selection was performed by filtering the most important ones considering the Variable Importance in Projection (VIP) scores. The predictive ability of the technology was evaluated by applying Classification List and Confusion Matrix approaches to a prediction set, providing a fit of the observations of this set into the selected supervised model. The outcomes highlight valuable discrimination between authentic samples (related to two different harvesting year campaigns) with classification accuracy rates between 89 % and 100 %. Promising results about the application on blended and real samples were also obtained, especially as regards fresh and roasted hazelnuts, which presented classification accuracy rates of 81 % and 91 %. Therefore, this analytical technique could play a strategic role in the geographical origin assessment considering it is a rapid, direct, non-destructive, and cost-effective approach.

Relaciones públicas y fake news en la comunicación corporativa. Una revisión de la literatura / Public relations and fake news in the corporate communication. A literature review

ResumenEl presente trabajo parte del concepto de fake news, aplicado al ámbito empresarial, para observar cómo la información y comunicación institucional y corporativa pueden verse afectadas por la difusión, fundamentalmente en redes sociales, de información no verificada. A partir del empleo de un diseño metodológico basado en la revisión bibliográfica y documental con fuentes de datos secundarios (bibliográficos y legislativos), en este texto se realiza una revisión sistemática de los términos relacionados aparecidos en dos bases de datos científicas (Mendeley y Google Scholar) con el fin de construir un marco teórico solvente sobre el concepto fake news en el ámbito corporativo. Palabras clave: corporativo, desinformación, fake news, infodemia, relaciones públicas. AbstractThe main objective of this paper is to start from the concept of fake news applied, in this case, not to journalistic information, but to the field of companies to determine how information and institutional communication can be distorted, and even attacked, by the dissemination of unverified (or malicious) information through the enormous dissemination provided by new technologies derived from the Internet, mainly social networks. This virality brought about by the digitalization of information and data can lead to truly damaging discredit for the trust of organizations among their different audiences. Precisely, the relational perspective (Grunig & Hung-Baesecke, 2015; Ledingham, 2015) maintains that the nature of public relations lies in its ability to manage relationships between an organization and its public of interest or stakeholders (Grunig, 2009) through through a strategically planned process (Otero and Pulido-Polo, 2018; Almiron & Xifra, 2019; Page & Parnel, 2019; Smith, 2017) capable of placing before public opinion (Greenhill, 2020) the excellence of organizational behavior. The purpose of this process is none other than to generate trust in the public, but its main obstacle, since the origin of public relations, has been public misinformation.To achieve the main objective of this paper, an exploratory methodological design is carried out, of a qualitative nature, in two phases: data collection and analysis. For the collection of data, the techniques of direct observation, participant observation and the use of data from secondary sources, eminently bibliographical, are used. To the review of the consulted sources, a systematic search of the terms is added: 'fake news', 'fake news + company/organization', 'corporate disinformation', 'disinformation + company/organization' (in English, Spanish and Portuguese) in the scientific databases Mendeley and Google Scholar. For the analysis, carried out between April 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022 by the undersigned researchers, a data matrix was created in Excel and the Atlas.ti software, version 21.0.8, was used. , from NK Qualitas. Finally, a total population of 239,700 files is obtained which, based on the data systematization criterion with a representative sample, represents a study corpus of n=23,970. The results show that almost 60% of the articles are indexed in the Journal Citation Report or Scopus databases, are concentrated in the areas "Information and Documentation", "Social Sciences" or "Miscellaneous" and revolve around the politics (almost 60%), “Economy” (19%), “Diseases and public health” (16%) and “Art, heritage and culture” (3%). Likewise, the most mentioned concepts are “Disinformation + fake news” (73%), “fact-checking” (13%) and “deepfakes” (8%). Interestingly, the percentages have been similar (around 2%) in the cases of the terms not searched for but found “legislation”, “media literacy” or “educommunication” and “corporate misinformation”. The conclusions show that there is disinformation whenever there is an attempt to manipulate, confuse or deceive with information of doubtful, misleading or false origin; that the concept of corporate disinformation is still to be developed; that, indeed, the dissemination of fake news affects the public perception of the organizations and that the use of artificial intelligence is revealed as an important tool for the development of new mechanisms for detecting fake news. Keywords: corporate, disinformation, fake news, infodemics, public relations.

Secure Inter-Domain Routing Based on Blockchain: A Comprehensive Survey.

The whole Internet consists of thousands of autonomous systems that transfer data with one another. The BGP plays a significant role in routing, but its behaviour is essentially naive, trusting neighbours without authenticating advertised IP prefixes. This is the main reason why BGP endures various path manipulation attacks. Recently, conventional methods for securing BGP have been implemented, i.e., BGPSec with RPKI. However, these approaches are centralised with a single point of failure that may be compromised, invalidating the whole security mechanism. There have been multiple decentralised projects dealing with various mechanisms, mostly built on Ethereum and blockchain networks. Some with ambition to strengthen existing centralised mechanisms, others to replace them. In this article, we present the first comprehensive survey on blockchain solutions to enforce BGP security, with complex explanations of their contributions and a comparison with different aspects. We explain how blockchain technology can provide an alternative to prevent the false origin of IP prefixes or hijacking AS paths. Moreover, we describe new blockchain-based attacks that BGP would face after the inclusion of blockchain into the inter-domain routing. Finally, we answer the defined research questions and discuss the potential open issues for further study.

Relaciones públicas y fake news en la comunicación corporativa. Una revisión de la literatura

The main objective of this paper is to start from the concept of fake news applied, in this case, not to journalistic information, but to the field of companies to determine how information and institutional communication can be distorted, and even attacked, by the dissemination of unverified (or malicious) information through the enormous dissemination provided by new technologies derived from the Internet, mainly social networks. This virality brought about by the digitalization of information and data can lead to truly damaging discredit for the trust of organizations among their different audiences. Precisely, the relational perspective (Grunig & Hung-Baesecke, 2015; Ledingham, 2015) maintains that the nature of public relations lies in its ability to manage relationships between an organization and its public of interest or stakeholders (Grunig, 2009) through through a strategically planned process (Otero and Pulido-Polo, 2018; Almiron & Xifra, 2019; Page & Parnel, 2019; Smith, 2017) capable of placing before public opinion (Greenhill, 2020) the excellence of organizational behavior. The purpose of this process is none other than to generate trust in the public, but its main obstacle, since the origin of public relations, has been public misinformation.To achieve the main objective of this paper, an exploratory methodological design is carried out, of a qualitative nature, in two phases: data collection and analysis. For the collection of data, the techniques of direct observation, participant observation and the use of data from secondary sources, eminently bibliographical, are used. To the review of the consulted sources, a systematic search of the terms is added: 'fake news', 'fake news + company/organization', 'corporate disinformation', 'disinformation + company/organization' (in English, Spanish and Portuguese) in the scientific databases Mendeley and Google Scholar. For the analysis, carried out between April 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022 by the undersigned researchers, a data matrix was created in Excel and the Atlas.ti software, version 21.0.8, was used. , from NK Qualitas. Finally, a total population of 239,700 files is obtained which, based on the data systematization criterion with a representative sample, represents a study corpus of n=23,970. The results show that almost 60% of the articles are indexed in the Journal Citation Report or Scopus databases, are concentrated in the areas "Information and Documentation", "Social Sciences" or "Miscellaneous" and revolve around the politics (almost 60%), “Economy” (19%), “Diseases and public health” (16%) and “Art, heritage and culture” (3%). Likewise, the most mentioned concepts are “Disinformation + fake news” (73%), “fact-checking” (13%) and “deepfakes” (8%). Interestingly, the percentages have been similar (around 2%) in the cases of the terms not searched for but found “legislation”, “media literacy” or “educommunication” and “corporate misinformation”. The conclusions show that there is disinformation whenever there is an attempt to manipulate, confuse or deceive with information of doubtful, misleading or false origin; that the concept of corporate disinformation is still to be developed; that, indeed, the dissemination of fake news affects the public perception of the organizations and that the use of artificial intelligence is revealed as an important tool for the development of new mechanisms for detecting fake news.

Proposed single-zone map projection system for Turkey

AbstractThe coordinate base of the maps or sheets produced is the Universal Transversal Mercator (UTM) conformal projection, and it is not possible to work in a single coordinate system in Turkey. Therefore, a transition from UTM to other conformal projections is required. For the countries extending in an east–west UTM zone width like Turkey, composite projection (CP), a double standard paralleling Lambert Conformal Conic (LCC) and double map projections (DP) are used widely. However, this process causes increase in working load and processing errors by users. This study aims to determine a common projection system that can be used in the whole country. In this context, a composite projection from UTM and LCC projection has been defined for the first time. According to the results obtained, map projection CP with the least distortion values in both east–west and north–south directions has been chosen. With the CP selection, a single coordinate system has been determined for medium- and large-scale maps. Projection correction formulas, scale factor and false origin have been determined for map coordinates in CP. These distortions are obtained with a difference of less than 1 cm for 1 km long sides and less than 0.003″ for the azimuth value of this side, when the correction formulas are used.

Predictors of adverse events in uncomplicated type B aortic dissection: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

Thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) has been selectively used for uncomplicated acute type B aortic dissection (TBAD); however, not all cases will benefit from TEVAR. A search for high risk clinical and radiographic predictors for complications is ongoing. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to identify predictors of major adverse events during follow-up of uncomplicated TBAD, in order to identify who might benefit from elective TEVAR. A systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) Statement. 16 studies were included in a qualitative synthesis and 10 in the meta-analysis. Several risk factors associated to major adverse events have been described, including: 1) aortic diameter ≥40 mm; 2) greater false lumen diameter (>22 mm); 3) patent false lumen; 4) primary entry tear >10 mm; and 5) greater number of false lumen vessels origin. Quantitative synthesis identified an aortic diameter ≥40 mm significantly associated with major adverse events (HR=3.56; P<0.00001). Reporting of false lumen status, aortic diameters and growth, and demographic data was not always congruent with the most recent recommendations by Society for Vascular Surgery and Society of Thoracic Surgeons, published in 2020. Acute and subacute patients with uncomplicated TBAD presenting with an aortic diameter ≥40 mm and solely treated with BMT have an increased hazard of developing major adverse events (HR), making them potential candidates for TEVAR. Remaining risk factors analysed have weaker evidence.

Dissection Flap Fenestration with a Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Needle: An Adjuvant Technique in Endovascular Treatment of Post-Dissection Thoraco-Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

IntroductionIn chronic aortic dissection complicated by aneurysmal degeneration, the absence of spontaneous tears between the true and false lumen at visceral artery level may limit treatment by fenestrated/branched endovascular aneurysm repair (F/BEVAR). The creation of new fenestrations may be required to allow access to the visceral vessels.TechniqueIn this video, the endovascular treatment of a 70 year old white man with chronic type B aortic dissection complicated by Crawford type II thoraco-abdominal aortic aneurysmal degeneration is presented. The right renal artery had a false lumen origin without nearby visible re-entry tears. He underwent dissection flap fenestration at visceral vessel level using a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) needle and subsequent dilation with a high pressure balloon. A Zenith TX2 dissection endovascular graft was deployed proximally and extended distally with a Zenith dissection endovascular stent until the fenestration level was reached. In a second stage, a F/BEVAR was performed, with fenestration to the left renal artery and branches to right renal artery, superior mesenteric artery, and coeliac trunk. One year follow up computed tomography angiography showed visceral branch patency and a reduction of the aneurysm sac.DiscussionThe chronic dissection flap may be thick and fibrotic, creating a technical challenge for endovascular fenestration. The off label use of a TIPS needle in this procedure created a new fenestration at the desired level and allowed definitive post-dissection treatment of the thoraco-abdominal aneurysm.

GREAT MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION IN THE MODERN SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

The subject of the study is the security space of the countries of the Greater Middle Eastand North Africa and its significance for Ukraine. The aim of the article is to identify the main trends in the geopolitical transformation of the Middle East regional system and to identify conflict issues that destabilize the region and deepen instability. Taking into account these facts, Ukraine will be able to systematically extract foreign economic policy in relation to the consolidated space of the Greater Middle East and North Africa. Methodology (method). General scientific and special methods were used in the research process in order to achieve the goal and solve the outlined tasks: historical and logical, analysis and synthesis, generalization and quantitative comparison, visual (tabular and graphical) (to visualize the results of the study). Results. It is determined that the system of regional international relations is in the conditions of cardinal changes, which leads to their restructuring, creation of a new balance of power and formation of new relations between the states. The structural structure of the Greater Middle East and North Africa region is established and the historical preconditions of its formation are detailed. The main tendencies to the geopolitical transformation of the Middle Eastern regional system are confirmed. Projects of restructuring the political map of the Middle East and the Muslim world and possible consequences for international security are analysed. The growing role of individual countries in the study region in the global economy, which is determined by the presence of significant natural resources, including oil and gas, is confirmed. The main challenges for development and stability in the Middle East have been identified, including local conflicts, the growth of terrorist acts, and ethnic problems. Local conflicts that destabilize the region, as almost all countries have sufficient resources to confront, are analysed. It has been confirmed that the most powerful countries in the region are increasing their military potential to secure their interests. It is determined that military conflicts in the region have a negative impact on the deepening of the deficit of natural resources, which significantly affects the global geopolitical picture of the world. Measures to be taken by Middle Eastern countries to ensure security policy in the region are proposed. The main interests of Ukraine in relations with the countries of the Middle East and North Africa are analysed and recommendations for their implementation are given.

ДІАЛЕКТИКА ФОРМИ ТА ЗМІСТУ ЗДОРОВ’ЯЗБЕРЕЖУВАЛЬНОЇ АКТИВНОСТІ СОЦІАЛЬНИХ СУБ’ЄКТІВ В УМОВАХ СУСПІЛЬСТВА СПОЖИВАННЯ

According to the World Health Organization, the major health threats to the planet’s population are air pollution, non-infection diseases, vaccine refusal, antibiotic resistance, etc. Taking into account the whole complexity of the systemic links in the range of these issues, the discussion intensity on health will continue. That’s why, there’s no wonder the safety of human life as a whole and the philosophical reflection on the phenomenon of health are the subject of critical analysis of many modern researchers.The extent, to which a social subject’s health-preserving activity is effective, depends on a number of factors. The end result of health preserving activity is determined not only by the mental and volitional qualities of the person who puts it into practice. It is also a matter of the dialectical interaction of form and content of a personality’s health preserving culture, without which it is impossible to imagine a holistic vision of this problem under the current conditions.Health preserving activity of a social subject under the contemporary consumerism acquires specific features, the form and content of which are predetermined by traditional social practices that are inherent in a society of over-consumption.It is of utmost importance for every educated person to understand the real state of affairs in the interconnections between the elements of such complex mechanisms as a consumer society and health preservation. It means that the power of negative effects on the individual is being significantly increased, because it is not about demonstrating expenses on unnecessary clothes and accessories, which will harm only the consumer’s wallet, but about expending on health-preservation drugs, products and procedures. That is, the vitality of the human biological organism and the duration of their life are crucial.Personal responsibility to care about your own health will always go hand in hand with critical reflection on the information. Both personal responsibility and critical thinking are based on education. The more educated a person is, the greater his or her vitality and readiness to meet the challenges of today are.Thus, as a result of the lack or the absence of competent information on contents, false origin and consequences of the consumption of preparations, foods, goods and procedures, the content of the health-preserving activity is being distorted, and the form, while preserving external segments, becomes illusory in its essence.

Multibranched endovascular aortic aneurysm repair in patients with and without chronic aortic dissections

ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to compare multibranched endovascular aneurysm repair (MBEVAR) of postdissection thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms (TAAAs) and pararenal aortic aneurysms (PRAAs) with MBEVAR of degenerative TAAAs and PRAAs and to assess the role played by the preoperative correction of potential complicating factors, such as true lumen compression and false lumen origin of vital branches, using adjunctive maneuvers. MethodsFrom July 2005 to July 2017, there were 162 patients who underwent elective MBEVAR of TAAAs and PRAAs. Data on demographics, procedural details, and outcomes were collected prospectively. ResultsThe mean age was 73 ± 8 years, and 119 of 162 (74%) were men; 19 of 162 (12%) had prior aortic dissections. Patients with dissections were younger (65 ± 11 years vs 74 ± 7 years; P = .002) and were less likely to have smoked (13/19 [68%] vs 135/143 [94%]; P = .002) or to have peripheral artery disease (0/19 [0%] vs 35/143 [24%]; P = .01) compared with those without dissections. Patients with prior dissections were more likely to have Crawford type II (10/19 [53%] vs 22/143 [15%]; P = .001) and type III (6/19 [32%] vs 16/143 [11%]; P = .03) TAAAs and were more likely to require at least one pre-MBEVAR adjunctive procedure (14/19 [74%] vs 55/143 [38%]; P = .006) compared with those without dissection. There was no difference in perioperative death, stroke, or paraplegia rates between the two groups. Median follow-up was 2.4 years (interquartile range, 0.8-4.7) and did not differ significantly between the two groups. There were no significant differences in branch vessel occlusion, endoleak rate, or aneurysm-related death between the two groups. ConclusionsPatients with chronic type B aortic dissection are more likely to have extensive aneurysms and more likely to require adjunctive procedures to provide the appropriate anatomic substrate for MBEVAR, but this does not appear to affect the conduct of MBEVAR or its outcomes.

Freshwater resources under success and failure of the Paris climate agreement

Abstract. Population growth will in many regions increase the pressure on water resources and likely increase the number of people affected by water scarcity. In parallel, global warming causes hydrological changes which will affect freshwater supply for human use in many regions. This study estimates the exposure of future population to severe hydrological changes relevant from a freshwater resource perspective at different levels of global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial level (ΔTglob). The analysis is complemented by an assessment of water scarcity that would occur without additional climate change due to population change alone; this is done to identify the population groups that are faced with particularly high adaptation challenges. The results are analysed in the context of success and failure of implementing the Paris Agreement to evaluate how climate mitigation can reduce the future number of people exposed to severe hydrological change. The results show that without climate mitigation efforts, in the year 2100 about 4.9 billion people in the SSP2 population scenario would more likely than not be exposed to severe hydrological change, and about 2.1 billion of them would be faced with particularly high adaptation challenges due to already prevailing water scarcity. Limiting warming to 2 ∘C by a successful implementation of the Paris Agreement would strongly reduce these numbers to 615 million and 290 million, respectively. At the regional scale, substantial water-related risks remain at 2 ∘C, with more than 12 % of the population exposed to severe hydrological change and high adaptation challenges in Latin America and the Middle East and north Africa region. Constraining ΔTglob to 1.5 ∘C would limit this share to about 5 % in these regions.

Enhanced secure communication over inter-domain routing in heterogeneous wireless networks based on analysis of BGP anomalies using soft computing techniques

Heterogeneous wireless networks play an important role in next-generation worldwide internet with seamless connectivity. Mobile network operators continue to grow their subscriber bases and move further toward being internet service providers, instead of basic voice and data service providers. The next-generation wireless technology is intended to support high-quality broadband performance and multimedia applications without any disturbance. In connection with that, the inter-domain routing is taking a significant role in heterogeneous wireless networks. Border Gateway Routing Protocol (BGP) is an inter-domain routing protocol. The performance of BGP is degraded by three vulnerabilities such as physical attacks on infrastructure, attacks on data and control messages by third party. The proposed work mainly focuses on the third category that attacks on control messages, by injecting false control messages into BGP routing information which creates false origin AS and tampered AS path. BGP Internet protocol (IP) prefix attack is the major threat to internet-based information routing systems. The consequences of this attack can damage IP address-based systems and cause routing instability on the internet. So each BGP speaker (router) and autonomous system in the BGP routing process must need to verify and validate the authentication before initiating the network communication. With respect to this problem, a large amount of BGP security-related researches are revealed. Till now, BGP security aspects remain vulnerable and their security algorithms have maximum computation cost and communication cost and create more memory overhead. A new quantum key distribution algorithm incorporated with inter-domain routing protocol BGP in the proposed work is named Quantum Security Enhanced-BGP (QSE-BGP). The proposed QSE-BGP scheme provides secure secret sharing and mutual authentication process in BGP routing for less computation cost, authentication delay and reduced memory overhead. The overall QSE-BGP performance is increased as or into 50% than existing work.

The Geopolitics of Environmental Education

This article analyzes the geopolitical imaginations promoted via environmental education in the school textbooks of five states in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. In doing so, it builds bridges between critical studies of education and political ecology. It shows that, when addressing environmental problems, the textbooks examined depoliticize environmental problems and sustain political and economic power structures. They do so by individualizing responsibility for environmental problems, legitimizing political and economic elites, associating environmental protection with wider societal goals, and externalizing environmental problems.

Israeli oil paintings sales agents abroad: mediating value for cheap art

In 2007, the majority of oil paintings on the global market were exported from a single location – Dafen Village (大芬) in Shenzhen, China – for a minor part of this market’s worth. These paintings were sent from China all over the world, mostly to the United States and England. Between the two ends of the market – the Eastern manufacturers and the Western consumers – polarized perceptions of the same paintings often existed. The cause of this phenomenon is inherent to the global market’s mediation process. In selling paintings from Dafen, the various mediators tended to omit the paintings’ origin, and in some cases even invented a false origin or told half-truths to raise the price. This article is based on a case study, following the development of a worldwide network of thousands of Israeli sales agents dealing with cheap oil paintings from developing countries over the past 50 years. In recent years, these art dealers have been a prominent factor in the mediation of Dafen paintings. The main goals of this article are to launch and examine a discourse about the mediators of cheap art and their considerable influence on the art market; to reveal the roles and activities of Israeli art dealers; and to explain the way that Israeli mediators caused a change in the value and evaluation of the paintings they sold.

Chemical differentiation of Bolivian Cedrela species as a tool to trace illegal timber trade

Combating illegal timber trade requires the ability to identify species and verify geographic origin of timber. Forensic techniques that independently verify the declared species and geographic origin are needed, as current legality procedures are based on certificates and documents that can be falsified. Timber from the genus Cedrela is among the most economically valued tropical timbers worldwide. Three Cedrela species are included in the Appendix III of CITES: C. fissilis, C. odorata and C. angustifolia (listed as C. lilloi). Cedrela timber is currently traded with false origin declarations and under a different species name, but tools to verify this are lacking. We used Direct Analysis in Real Time Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry (DART-TOFMS) to chemically identify Cedrela species and sites of origin. Heartwood samples from six Cedrela species (the three CITES-listed species plus C. balansae, C. montana and C. saltensis) were collected at 11 sites throughout Bolivia. Mass spectra detected by DART-TOFMS comprised 1062 compounds; their relative intensities were analysed using Principal Component Analyses, Kernel Discriminant Analysis (KDA) and Random Forest analyses to check discrimination potential among species and sites. Species were identified with a mean discrimination error of 15–19 per cent, with substantial variation in discrimination accuracy among species. The lowest error was observed in C. fissilis (mean = 4.4 per cent). Site discrimination error was considerably higher: 43–54 per cent for C. fissilis and 42–48 per cent for C. odorata. These results provide good prospects to differentiate C. fissilis from other species, but at present there is no scope to do so for other tested species. Thus, discrimination is highly species specific. Our findings for tests of geographic origin suggest no potential to discriminate at the studied scale and for the studied species. Cross-checking results from different methods (KDA and Random Forest) reduced discrimination errors. In all, the DART-TOFMS technique allows independent verification of claimed identity of certain Cedrela species in timber trade.