Earthquake Catalog Research Articles

Towards a geodetic earthquake catalogue for Central America: detecting coseismic deformation in Costa Rica using Sentinel-1 InSAR

SUMMARY Earthquake source parameters can be estimated using seismological observations, but the identification of the fault responsible is often complicated by location uncertainties and the inherent ambiguity between nodal planes. Satellite Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) can be used to observe ground deformation and model fault geometry but is limited by climate conditions (water vapour) and ground coverage (dense vegetation). In the tropics, the atmosphere is dynamic and most regions are densely vegetated, making detecting coseismic deformation challenging. Here, we perform a systematic inspection of coseismic interferograms from Sentinel-1 SAR images, to assess their suitability for detecting coseismic deformation in Costa Rica. Using data from the seismological network, we target seven earthquakes between 2016 and 2020 with depths $\le \, 20$ km and magnitudes Mw 5.3–6.2. For each event, we use the seismic parameters to compute line-of-sight displacements for ascending and descending geometries and for both nodal planes and generate 12- and 24-d coseismic interferograms where available. We obtain interferograms with coseismic displacement signals for three of the seven earthquakes. We invert the geodetic data to retrieve the earthquake source parameters but the lack of offshore geodetic coverage causes trade-offs between parameters and large uncertainties. The Jacó and Golfito earthquakes likely occurred on the subduction interface and the geodetic locations were 6–9 km closer to the coast than previous seismic estimates. The Burica earthquake occurred on a shallow steeply dipping thrust fault in the outer forearc. For the other earthquakes, no coseismic deformation was detected due to atmospheric noise or poor coherence. These results demonstrate the suitability of 12-d Sentinel-1 interferograms for monitoring shallow earthquakes of magnitude > Mw 5.7 in Central America. This approach can be used to begin a surface deformation catalogue for the region, which will ultimately help improve the understanding of active deformation processes and improve hazard maps.

Possible layered lithospheric anisotropy around Longmenshan Faults by teleseismic S wave splitting and receiver functions

This study conducts an in-depth analysis of seismic anisotropy around the Longmenshan Faults. Utilizing a dataset of about 7710 earthquake catalogs from July 2007 to March 2023, we applied S wave splitting and receiver function methods to examine Pms and XKS waveforms collected from 12 fixed broadband stations across Gansu and Sichuan provinces. Our analysis revealed significant variations in seismic anisotropy between the crust and lithosphere, marked by distinct fast wave directions and delay times. These characteristics point to the possibility for layered anisotropy within the region. A two-layer anisotropy inversion analysis at key stations further delineated the differential anisotropic behaviors between the crust and the upper mantle, underscoring the impact of local geological structures and mantle dynamics. Crucially, our study posits the existence of layered anisotropy around the Longmenshan Fault Zone, a finding that significantly advances our comprehension of the region’s seismic anisotropy and adds a vital dimension to our understanding of its subsurface structural intricacies and tectonic evolution.

An updated homogeneous earthquake catalogue and earthquake recurrence parameters of Maharashtra state, an Indian stable continental region

An updated homogeneous earthquake catalogue and earthquake recurrence parameters of Maharashtra state, an Indian stable continental region

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bagan (Myanmar)

Following the 2016 Chauk earthquake in Bagan (Myanmar), numerous old pagodas and temples suffered severe damage. This research presents a study on the seismic hazard analysis of the Bagan city in Myanmar, based on a probabilistic framework focussing on analysing 43 temples with their associated local soil information. To this end, two seismic source models are developed based on the tectonic setting of the region and information available. Instrumental and historical records are compiled from both literature and international earthquake catalogues while conducting catalogue completeness. This study uses state-of-the-art ground motion models to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and develop seismic hazard maps for different return periods in the region. Results are also expressed for selected temples in the region in terms of site-specific uniform hazard spectra. The findings indicate significant seismic activity, with peak ground acceleration in the region ranging from 0.25 to 0.36 g for a return period of 2475 years, 0.22–0.32 g for a return period of 975 years, and 0.18–0.24 g for a return period of 475 years. The updated hazard levels indicate that the literature slightly underestimates hazard in the region under study.

Compilation of a Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog and Relocations in the Caucasus Region

Abstract Instrumental seismic monitoring has a long history in the Caucasus and started in 1899 when the first seismograph was installed in Tbilisi, Georgia. Much of the analog paper records from this time period are preserved in the Tbilisi archives because Georgia served as the regional data center. In the 1990s, due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the political turmoil in the region, the analog networks and the communication between the newly formed national networks deteriorated. In Georgia, for the next 13 yr, the seismic network coverage was poor until the 2002 Tbilisi earthquake. Following this earthquake, the first permanent digital seismic station in Georgia was established in Tbilisi in 2003. The digital era progressively improved the ability to collect and archive data and today more than a hundred broadband seismic stations (including temporary arrays) are operating in the southern Caucasus. Until recently, the region lacked a coordinated effort to catalog all analog and digital era data collected by different countries into a single repository. As a result of collaboration between Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the Ilia State University, and the Republican Seismic Survey Center of Azerbaijan, a comprehensive earthquake catalog was compiled for the Caucasus and neighboring areas as part of a broader probabilistic seismic hazard assessment project. This project digitized Soviet-era paper bulletins, compiled a unified earthquake catalog from regional bulletins, developed 1D reference velocity model, and used it to relocate the events. The final catalog contains 16,963 events with magnitudes 3.7 and above, bringing together all the available data sets in the Caucasus region from 1900 to 2015, significantly improving locations, and generating the most complete earthquake catalog in the region, temporally and geographically.

Aftershock forecasts based on incomplete earthquake catalogues: ETASI model application to the 2023 SE Türkiye earthquake sequence

SUMMARY The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is the state-of-the-art approach for modelling short-term earthquake clustering and is preferable for short-term aftershock forecasting. However, due to the large variability of different earthquake sequences, the model parameters must be adjusted to the local seismicity for accurate forecasting. Such an adjustment based on the first aftershocks is hampered by the incompleteness of earthquake catalogues after a mainshock, which can be explained by a blind period of the seismic networks after each earthquake, during which smaller events with lower magnitudes cannot be detected. Assuming a constant blind time, direct relationships based only on this additional parameter can be established between the actual seismicity rate and magnitude distributions and those that can be detected. The ETAS-incomplete (ETASI) model uses these relationships to estimate the true ETAS parameters and the catalogue incompleteness jointly. In this study, we apply the ETASI model to the SE Türkiye earthquake sequence, consisting of a doublet of M 7.7 and M 7.6 earthquakes that occurred within less than half a day of each other on 6 February 2023. We show that the ETASI model can explain the catalogue incompleteness and fits the observed earthquake numbers and magnitudes well. A pseudo-prospective forecasting experiment shows that the daily number of detectable m ≥ 2 can be well predicted based on minimal and incomplete information from early aftershocks. However, the maximum magnitude (Mmax ) of the next day’s aftershocks would have been overestimated due to the highly variable b value within the sequence. Instead, using the regional b value estimated for 2000–2022 would have well predicted the observed Mmax values.

Bootstrapping for parameter uncertainty in the space–time epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

SUMMARY This paper proposes the use of the parametric bootstrap as a simple way of obtaining reliable confidence intervals for the parameters in the space–time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. Using an earthquake data catalogue spanning almost 20 yr of seismic activity in the Pacific Ocean off the shores of Vancouver Island (British Columbia, Canada), the authors show through simulation that the confidence intervals based on asymptotic maximum-likelihood theory can sometimes be misleading. In contrast, confidence intervals based on empirical quantiles from bootstrap samples have reliable nominal coverage, provided that edge effects are properly taken into account, both in the bootstrap procedure and in simulation studies. An R package called ETASbootstrap, developed by the authors, facilitates the use of this resampling procedure.

MACHINE LEARNING FOR FAST AND RELIABLE SOURCE-LOCATION ESTIMATION IN EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING

We develop a random forest (RF) model for rapid earthquake location with an aim to assist earthquake early warning (EEW) systems in fast decision making. This system exploits Pwave arrival times at the first five stations recording an earthquake and computes their respective arrival time differences relative to a reference station (i.e., the first recording station). These differential P-wave arrival times and station locations are classified in the RF model to estimate the epicentral location. We train and test the proposed algorithm with an earthquake catalog from Japan. The RF model predicts the earthquake locations with a high accuracy, achieving a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 2.88 km. As importantly, the proposed RF model can learn from a limited amount of data (i.e., 10% of the dataset) and much fewer (i.e., three) recording stations and still achieve satisfactory results (MAE<5 km). The algorithm is accurate, generalizable, and rapidly responding, thereby offering a powerful new tool for fast and reliable source-location prediction in EEW.

Distinct Yet Adjacent Earthquake Sequences near the Mendocino Triple Junction: 20 December 2021 Mw 6.1 and 6.0 Petrolia, and 20 December 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale

Abstract Two earthquake sequences occurred a year apart at the Mendocino Triple Junction in northern California: first the 20 December 2021 Mw 6.1 and 6.0 Petrolia sequence, then the 20 December 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale sequence. To delineate active faults and understand the relationship between these sequences, we applied an automated deep-learning workflow to create enhanced and relocated earthquake catalogs for both the sequences. The enhanced catalog newly identified more than 14,000 M 0–2 earthquakes and also found 852 of 860 already cataloged events. We found that deep-learning and template-matching approaches complement each other to improve catalog completeness because deep learning finds more M 0–2 background seismicity, whereas template-matching finds the smallest M < 0 events near already known events. The enhanced catalog revealed that the 2021 Petrolia and 2022 Ferndale sequences were distinct in space and time, but adjacent in space. Though both the sequences happened in the downgoing Gorda slab, the shallower Ferndale sequence ruptured within the uppermost slab near the subduction interface, while the onshore Petrolia sequence occurred deeper in the mantle. Deep-learning-enhanced earthquake catalogs could help monitor evolving earthquake sequences, identify detailed seismogenic fault structures, and understand space–time variations in earthquake rupture and sequence behavior in a complex tectonic setting.

Numerous Tibetan lower-crustal and upper-mantle earthquakes, detected by Sn/Lg ratios, suggest crustal delamination or drip tectonics

Whether intermediate-depth earthquakes beneath Tibet and the Himalaya are in the lower crust or upper mantle should provide insight into rheology, hence composition and temperature, of continental lower crust and upper mantle. Based on the waveguide theory that earthquakes respectively above or below the Moho will excite higher Lg or Sn energy, we develop an Sn/Lg amplitude-ratio analysis using a single permanent station to investigate earthquake depths with respect to the Moho. First, we use synthetics to show the ubiquitous sharp increase of the Sn/Lg ratio for hypocenters beneath the crust. A deep-crustal high-vs layer appropriate for eclogitized Indian lower crust causes a more gradual increase of Sn/Lg ratios for hypocenters within or below the eclogite layer. We measured Sn/Lg ratios of 595 Tibetan earthquakes from 1998 to 2022 with nominal (catalog) hypocentral depths >30 km and magnitudes >3.2 in five regions (west Tibet, southwest Tibet, south Tibet, southeast Tibet, and Qiangtang). As predicted by our normal-mode synthetics, earthquakes in west and south Tibet show Sn/Lg ratios that increase sharply as catalog depths approach the independently determined receiver-function Moho. Numerous earthquakes with high Sn/Lg ratios and nominal depths around the reported Moho are identified between the Karakoram fault and Altyn-Tagh fault (ATF) in west Tibet, which we attribute to an eclogitized Indian lower crust extending north to the ATF. Impingement of this underthrust Indian slab against the Tarim craton and consequent eclogite delamination or dripping may cause the observed below-Moho seismicity which occupies a region 100 km across and 200 km along orogenic strike and extends 30–50 km below published Moho depths. Similarly dense seismicity spans the Moho and occupies a similar volume below the Moho beneath the High Himalaya in south Tibet. The south Tibet Sn/Lg patterns may indicate an eclogitized Indian layer beginning to delaminate or drip south of the Yarlung-Zangpo suture. Our southeast Tibet and southwest Tibet Sn/Lg observations are less clear cut, perhaps due to less appropriate epicentral distances from the available observing stations. The Qiangtang region of Tibet likely has sparse mid-to-lower-crustal earthquakes, but no definitive below-Moho earthquakes. Our work expands the catalog of continental intraplate earthquakes below the Moho by >100 events with mb>3.2, as well as identifying tens of mb>3.2 lower-crustal events, so that Tibet fits neither an ideal crême-brulée nor an ideal jelly-sandwich crustal-strength paradigm. Two clusters of earthquakes that each span the Moho may be best explained by the delamination or dripping of a strong eclogitized lower crust into the upper mantle.

Strong historical earthquakes around Osh city, Kyrgyzstan

This paper presents data on strong earthquakes that occurred in the area around Osh city from various literature sources. The information on strong earthquakes of the past has been compiled on the basis of historical data. The catalog of strong earthquakes is given in the radius of 60 km from Osh city. A description of macroseismic data of these earthquakes is given.

The crypt complex «city of the dead» in the Dargavs village (North Ossetia) is a witness to the late medieval earthquake in the Caucasus

During the study of the crypt complex near the Dargavs village in North Ossetia, seismic deformations were detected in some burial structures. The presence of only a few damaged crypts among the many relatively wellpreserved burial structures indicates that a significant earthquake took place at the very beginning of the functioning of the burial ground. Its local seismic intensity was VII-VIII points. The age of the earthquake is the XVI century. The data obtained will help to supplement the catalog of strong earthquakes in the Caucasus and clarify the assessment of its seismic hazard based on longterm seismic data.

Algorithm of the plotting earthquake occurrence rate graphs taking into account uncertainties in magnitude estimation

The study is devoted to the development of algorithms for constructing statistically based earthquake occur- rence rate graphs, which are necessary for parameterizing models of the earthquake occurrence sources in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The algorithm is based on modeling a set of earthquake catalogs based on the original one with a random correction to magnitude. The final earthquake occurrence rate graph is built on the basis of a total analysis of time- completeness graphs for all model catalogs with a fixed magnitude step.

Partial Ruptures Cannot Explain the Long Recurrence Intervals of Repeating Earthquakes

AbstractRepeating earthquakes repeatedly rupture the same fault asperities, which are likely loaded to failure by surrounding aseismic slip. However, repeaters occur less often than would be expected if these earthquakes accommodate all of the long‐term slip on the asperities. Here, we assess a possible explanation for this slip discrepancy: partial ruptures. On asperities that are much larger than the nucleation radius, a fraction of the slip could be accommodated by smaller ruptures on the same asperities. We search for partial ruptures of repeating earthquakes in Parkfield using the Northern California earthquakes catalog. We find 3991 individual repeaters which have 4468 partial ruptures. The presence of partial ruptures suggests that the asperities of repeating earthquakes are much larger than the nucleation radius. However, we find that partial ruptures could accommodate only around 25% of the slip on repeating earthquake patches. A 25% increase in the slip budget can explain only a small portion of the long recurrence intervals of repeating earthquakes.

Seismic Hazard Assessment in Maluku Province Using PSHA

On 10 January 2023, a strong earthquake with a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.5 occurred in Banda Sea, Maluku Province. This earthquake caused casualties around the epicentre due to the building collapse which was not an earthquake-resistant structure. A high level of seismic vulnerability and non-standard infrastructure often result in large losses when earthquakes occur. Therefore, mapping of earthquake-prone areas needs to be carried out to optimize the mitigation efforts based on Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectrum Acceleration (SA) values. In this paper, mitigation efforts are carried out by mapping earthquake-prone areas using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) which considers the potential of each complex earthquake source in Maluku Province. Input data was obtained from several earthquake catalogues such as Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), International Seismological Center (ISC), and United States Geological Survey (USGS) which were processed and analyzed using the Matlab, ZMap, and R-CRISIS programs and mapped using the ArcMap program. The results of PSHA show that Maluku Province is a region with varying levels of earthquake vulnerability. The research results show that the distribution hazard value on PGA in Maluku Province reaches 0.02g to 0.48g for a return period of 500 years and 0.04g to 0.79g for a return period of 2,500 years and on SA for periods of 0.20 seconds and 1.00 second reaches 0.04g to 0.89g and 0.01g to 0.22g for a return period of 500 years and 0.07g to 1.48g and 0.02g to 0.35g for a return period of 2,500 years, respectively. The highest level of vulnerability is in the northern region including Seram Island, Way Apu Island and Ambon Island and the lowest level of vulnerability is in the eastern region including Aru Island.

Пространственные вариации коэффициента группируемости землетрясений (на примере Японии)

The article is devoted to the spatial distribution of the average productivity of earthquakes in the main part of Japan for the period 2000–2020. The maps were generated with The Generic Mapping Tools using the Japan Meteorological Agency catalog for earthquakes 40 km below the surface. We are talking about «crustal» earthquakes on the island part of Japan. Maps were built for the period 2010–2020, where the radius (25 km, 50 km, 100 km), catalog completeness (1 and 1.5) and ∆ -productivity (1 and 2) were varied. For the most indicative map, the stability of the picture in time was checked. An attempt was also made to test the effect of surface heat flux on the distribution of average earthquake productivity.

Integrated Earthquake Catalog of the Ossetian Sector of the Greater Caucasus

This article is the continuation of a study by authors to create the most complete and representative earthquake catalogs with a unified magnitude scale. The catalog created of the Ossetian sector of the Greater Caucasus (the territory of the Republic of North Ossetia–Alania and adjacent areas) was formed by the aggregation of all available data from Soviet, modern Russian, and Georgian catalogs, as well as the data from the International Seismological Centre. The integration was carried out using the author’s approach based on the modified nearest neighbor method. The integrated catalog of the Ossetian sector of the Greater Caucasus contains 16,285 events for the period 1962–2022. For all events, magnitude estimates are reduced to a unified “proxy-MW” scale. The integration of data from various sources made it possible to significantly replenish the beginning of the aftershock sequence of the Racha earthquake with MW = 7.0, which occurred on 29 April 1991. There has been a change in the level of registration over time. Thus, there is a significant lack of events for the periods 1967–1970 and 1988–1991; starting from 1995, the catalog is complete for magnitude 3.2, and since 2005 for magnitude 2.2. The integration of Soviet and modern Russian and Georgian catalogs made it possible to significantly increase the completeness and representativeness of seismic events in the studied Ossetian sector of the Greater Caucasus. This once again demonstrates both the fundamental importance of merging seismic data from global, national, and regional catalogs and the effectiveness of the author’s developed method.

Tectonic setting of the northwestern andes Constrained by a high-resolution earthquake catalog: Block Kinematics

A high-precision earthquake catalog was generated using source-specific station terms and waveform cross-correlation techniques. This detailed catalog serves to interpret the crustal structure and deformation related to the tectonic setting in Northwestern South America. The Panamá-Chocó Block (PCB) is in contact with the Northwestern Andes causing crustal deformation and hence, fault interaction in the brittle regime leading to a high earthquake production concentrated in the Murindó Seismic Cluster (MSC) which is located in the northeastern corner of the PCB. Slip on the Uramita Fault Zone (UFZ) is a response to the accommodation of the PCB against the North Andean block (NAB), splitting the fault into two segments, marked by an abrupt change in its strike. The north segment of the UFZ, a dextral transform fault (strike = S52°E and near vertical plane), which produced the Mutatá earthquake (2016-09-14, Mw = 6.2). The central segment of the UFZ strikes N12°E and exhibits mainly reverse slip with a subvertical fault plane which produced the 1987-03-19 Mw = 5.4 and 1987-11-11 Mw = 5.3 events. The Murindó sinistral strike-slip fault (strike = N9°W), which produced the great Murindó earthquake (1992-10-18, Mw = 7.1, epicentral intensity XI) is characterized by its wide zone of brittle deformation as a response to internal deformation of the PCB under a compressional NW-SE stress. Intermediate depth earthquakes are widely observed in the area, where we find evidence of the Caribbean slab subducting southwards beneath Panamá. The subduction of the Malpelo microplate to the south, shows high productivity within the Cauca Cluster and the presence of at least three finger-shaped mantle zones of seismicity.

Standardizing Earthquake Magnitudes for the 2022 Revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model

ABSTRACTThe 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model—Te Tauira Matapae Pūmate Rū i Aotearoa—requires an earthquake catalog that ideally measures earthquake size in moment magnitude. However, regional moment tensor solutions, which allow the calculation of moment magnitude MwNZ, were introduced in New Zealand only in 2007. The most reported magnitude in the national New Zealand earthquake catalog is a variation of local magnitude ML. In New Zealand, ML is systematically larger than MwNZ over a wide magnitude range. Furthermore, the introduction of the earthquake analysis system SeisComP in 2012 caused step changes in the catalog. We address the problems by converting magnitudes using regressions to define a standardized magnitude as a proxy for MwNZ. A new magnitude, MLNZ20, has an attenuation relation and station corrections consistent on average with MwNZ. We have calculated MLNZ20 for nearly 250,000 earthquakes between 2000 and 2020. MLNZ20 is a reasonable proxy for MwNZ for earthquakes with ML<5.5. For earthquakes with ML>4.6, MwNZ is reliably available. We have applied ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for MwNZ and MLNZ20 on ML before and after 2012. We argue that OLS is the most appropriate method to calculate a proxy for MwNZ from individual ML measurements. The slope of the OLS regression compares well to the slope from the method of moments, which accommodates equation error that is present when there is scatter beyond measurement error, as is the case for our magnitude data. We have defined as a proxy for MwNZ a standardized magnitude Mstd, which is Mw when available, MLNZ20 with some restrictions as a second choice, and otherwise the magnitude derived from regression. Standardization of the magnitudes reduces the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of ≥4.95 by more than half and corrects step changes in the spatial distribution of earthquakes between 2011 and 2012.

SEISMICITY of AZERBAIJAN and ADJACENT TERRITORIES in 2018–2019

In 2018–2019, the Azerbaijan network of seismic stations continued to operate without changes and consisted of 35 digital stations. To estimate the magnitude of earthquakes in these years, only the local magnitude ML Azr was determined. The total number of earthquakes recorded by the Azerbaijan network of stations was 5387 in 2018 and 6880 in 2019, however, the catalog of earthquakes in Azerbaijan and adjacent territories, published in the appendix to this article, provides data on earthquakes only with a magnitude of ML Azr3.0, which ОБЗОР СЕЙСМИЧНОСТИ 66 number was 101 in 2018 and 115 in 2019. The number N of the representative level earthquakes (KR≥9) in the study area slightly increased in 2018 and 2019 compared to the long-term average annual value Nav for 1993– 2017, while the released seismic energy decreased relative to the background level by 6 and 7 times, respectively. The most significant seismic event on the territory of the Republic in 2018 was the earthquake of June 5 with ML Azr=5.5, and in 2019 – the earthquake of February 5, ML Azr=5.2. Both events were felt in the nearest settlements with an intensity of Ii=6.