Dynamics Of Macroeconomic Indicators Research Articles

Управління фінансуванням державного бюджету в аспекті співпраці України з МВФ

Introduction. During the war, the tasks of implementing new approaches to managing operations involving the attraction and use of resources within the framework of state budget financing arose. At the same time, the risks of maintaining financial stability and debt sustainability intensified. The resolution of these issues became the subject of cooperation between the state administration bodies of Ukraine and the IMF. Problem Statement. The gaps between the growing expenses of the state budget and their revenue coverage have increased. The result was an increase in the burden on the financing of the state budget, which required making significant changes to the sources of attracting funds and the mechanisms for their implementation. Purpose. Conducting an analysis of changes in the management of the state budget financing of Ukraine during the war in the aspect of Ukraine's cooperation with the IMF. Methods. An analysis of state budget financing during the war and overcoming its consequences was carried out. The main tasks, sources and mechanisms of state budget financing are revealed. The problems of resource attraction from the domestic financial market, as well as financing from external sources, are highlighted. Results. At the initial stage of the war, budget expenditures were significantly increased and changes were made to their structure. At the same time, deficit indicators increased, and its coverage was provided by budget financing operations. Due to the high risks of increasing the non-debt resource (on the basis of privatization and active operations), there arose a need of increasing state borrowing. During the use of internal resources, monetary financing was allowed, which had a negative impact on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. External debt obligations are provided on preferential terms and have a long-term nature. The use of such financing made it possible to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability in Ukraine, but was accompanied by an increase in public debt indicators. It is noted that the allocation of domestic state borrowing needs to be reviewed, and external financial assistance is subject to changes in the direction of rationalization and replacement by internal financing. Conclusions. Measures developed within the framework of cooperation between Ukraine and the IMF allow to ensure budgetary capacity and debt sustainability. In order to strengthen them, it is proposed to increase the volume of non-debt resources for financing the budget, to replace monetary financing with non-state sources of its provision, to adopt programs for the gradual restoration of fiscal rules, as well as access to international capital markets, to make changes to the attraction of financial assistance (gradual replacement of it by other sources), adjusting the strategic principles of public debt management, taking into account the effects of the war and the needs of post-war recovery.

Innovative Clusters of Global Trade Leadership

The formation of a new global system and systemic global interdependence has generated new competitiveness factors for market participants, determining their appropriate strategic behavior to ensure a highly competitive position and leadership. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to identify the countries of intellectual leaders in the global market and the factors that influence the positions that countries achieve in terms of leadership. The following research methods were used: multifactor regression models, cluster analysis, and comparative analysis. Based on the authors’ methodology for assessing countries’ intellectual leadership, the clustering of countries in the global economy is determined. The evaluation algorithm was based on three levels: 1) resources, 2) the intermediate results of intellectual activity, and 3) the final results of overall progress.
 Using a multifactor regression model and cluster analysis, four clusters of countries were identified according to key indicators of intellectual leadership. For each cluster, the specialization of the two countries in terms of merchandise exports was analyzed: cluster 1 – the United States and Germany; cluster 2 – Israel and Italy; cluster 3 – Brazil and Ukraine; cluster 4 – China and South Korea. Each country is assigned an index of economic complexity, and the change in position of each country within a cluster over ten years is noted.
 An important goal is to understand the determinants of the leadership of countries in each geographic region.
 The analysis is based on the cluster analysis carried out in previous publications. The clustering of countries was carried out based on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators over the past 15 years.

Russian Economy in 2022–2024: Results, Trends, Forecasts

The article discusses the results of the socio-economic development of Russia in 2022 and highlights trends and forecasts of the dy namics of macroeconomic indicators for 2023–2024. At the same time, the main challenges and threats are analyzed, including production, trade, economic, financial, monetary, infrastructural, logistical and other restrictions that have become the main instruments of the West’s sanctions wars against Russia in the new geopolitical reality associated with Russia’s conducting a special military operation (SMO).The main objects of analysis are the current state, trends, risks and threats to the Russian economy, the dynamics of industrial production, prices, inflation and foreign trade. It is noted that, despite the toughening of challenges, sanctions and threats in 2022, the macroeconomic results of 2022 turned out to be higher than official forecasts and experts' expectations. This made it possible to substantiate the main conclusion of the study that the Russian economy managed to prevent a collapse and find additional opportunities to better unlock the potential of economic growth and social progress in the current three-year period of 2023–2025 and in the long term. According to the authors, the need to further transform and improvethe efficiency of the Russian economy is predetermined not only by current but also, possibly, future challenges.

Coronavirus pandemic: yesterday, today, tomorrow of the Russian economy

The article analyzes the economic results of the crisis year 2020, identifies the factors that had a negative impact on the results of the year, examines the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators, determines the impact of various industries on GDP. The results of the analysis of citizens’ incomes for 2020, the dynamics of changes in the number of unemployed and the number of Russian citizens with incomes below the established subsistence level are presented. Restrictive measures related to the pandemic and the results of their effect on the socio-economic development of Russia and some foreign countries are considered, the main anti-crisis measures are listed. The content and objectives of the “National Action Plan”, which is aimed at restoring the Russian economy, are briefly formulated. In conclusion, the main challenges and risks in the implementation of the “National Action Plan” are formulated, which provides both an increase in employment, an increase in citizens’ incomes, the restoration of economic growth and a fundamental changes in the structure of the economy.

Інвестиційна привабливість у сучасних реаліях економіки України

The article defines the essence of the concept of «investment» and the features of the formation of investment attractiveness. The concept of «investment attractiveness» is analyzed. It is noted that the formation of the investment attractiveness of the country is influenced by immense number of factors. The following factors are taken into account: political, geographical, historical, cultural, legal, socioeconomic, organizational, financial, dynamics of macroeconomic indicators, the presence or absence of natural resources, the demographic situation, the level of development of the legislative framework, fiscal policy, transparency and stability of the economic system. A number of financial and economic prerequisites that determine the possibility and efficiency of investment are identified. It is substantiated that although measures are constantly being taken in Ukraine to improve the investment climate, negative assessments of experts and scientists indicate the imperfection of the existing system, which leads to a shortage of investment assets. It is noted that one of the most important conditions for the country’s economic growth is the process of attracting investments, which requires a favorable investment climate in the State. The negative tendency of investment revenues to the country is caused by insufficient development of factors that form the investment climate. The basic principles of government stimulation of investment attractiveness of the country are examined. It is noted that at the current stage of economic development, the issue of increasing the efficiency of the investment process in the country remains relevant for Ukraine. Unfortunately, at the moment there are many reasons for the insufficient investment attractiveness of our country. It is said that the policy of the Ukrainian government should be aimed at creating a clear and real strategy for the socioeconomic development of the country, based on an analysis of the real economic situation and the resources available in the country.

Fiscal Incentives for Economic Development in the World under the Condition of the COVID-19

The article describes the fiscal stimulus, which used in the world to overcome the negative effects of the recession in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors used historical and static methods, a combination of methods of analysis and synthesis, etc. Based on the statist analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators, the authors confirmed that the main development trend of most countries and Ukraine in 2020 is a significant economic decline (falling production, rising public debt, growing fiscal deficit, etc.) caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The article summarizes that in the recession in 2020, countries use measures to fiscally stimulate households and business units through additional government expenditures and lost budget revenues. The size and structure of fiscal stimulus measures vary among different groups of countries. The main fiscal stimulus during this period are: deferrals and reductions in taxes, a moratorium on the payment of certain types of obligations, various forms of cash surcharges and subsidies, partial unemployment, capital injections into enterprises, loans and guarantees. The debt burden is a significant threat to low-income countries, as debt restructuring and public spending cuts will be relevant in the long run to stabilize debt in such countries. This means limited use of fiscal stimulus to exit the recession and stimulate economic development in the country. The results can have practical application within the framework of the formation of the state fiscal policy to overcome the recession and stimulate economic development in the country. In Ukrainian practice, during the pandemic, the main measures of fiscal stimulus were the use of reduced working day schemes and the expansion of unemployment benefits; changes in taxation; financial support for retirees; subsidies; social and economic support of households and enterprises. JEL classіfіcatіon: H2, H5, H6

Program-Targeted Approach in Public Finance Management: Modern Problems of Budgetary Planning

The purpose of the article is to identify areas for improving budgetary planning tools as an integral part of public finance management. The level of quality of budgetary planning is an important factor in balancing budgets at different levels of the budget system at the time of increasing global instability. Effective measures are taken under conditions of permanent improvement of financial management, based on the use of advanced information technologies, innovative methods for assessing the socio-economic situation of public-law entities. Theoretical and methodological bases of functioning of the budgetary planning system, the possible ways of its improvement in the context of institutional transformations are identified. During the period of actualization of strategic goal-setting in the economy, for the development of the financial management system in terms of improving the budget process, a detailed analysis and assessment of the impact of internal and external factors on the financial and economic environment is required. Opportunities to identify certain patterns and objective trends in the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and parameters of budgets of the budgetary system are created on this basis. The timeliness of the use of such financial tools as budgeting, result orientation and program-targeted planning, the use of which allows to link the expenditures of public-law entities with the current financial policy, as well as to increase the degree of openness and transparency of the budgetary process, has been proved. Conclusions on the advisability of applying best foreign practices in the activities of financial management bodies at the subnational level are drawn. The key areas of further research in the spatial aspect are the development of multivariate forecasts and econometric models that make it possible to assess the possibilities of economic development of the country and the tax potential of administrative-territorial units.

Impact of COVID-19 on the economies of Russia and France

The global pandemic has significantly affected the global economic paradigm in general and individual economies in particular. The situation of uncertainty and the turning point in the fight against COVID-19 is still relatively far ahead, since vaccination, if actively carried out in a number of countries, addresses only a part of the population, mainly employees of the health and service sectors. Economic policy plays a special role in maintaining and ensuring the well-being of the population in the tough epidemiological conditions. The asymmetry of the impact of COVID-19 on different countries can be indagated by different economic (macroeconomic) indicators. For example, in Russia and France, the countries that are the subject of comparison in the study, gross domestic product showed a descending trend, but the rate of such decline was not the same. In turn, the state budget deficit, internal and external debt-all these indices showed growth, due to unforeseen and urgently needed expenditures to eliminate the ‘bottlenecks’ in the health sector, to provide the population with the necessary volume of goods to meet their needs. The article demonstrates as well that the introduction of lockdowns (or self-isolation) led to a change in consumer preferences, a kind of a shortage of the consumer demand in France. Interesting in its own way is the study of the dynamics of consumption of food, energy and industrial goods, outliers of indicators in 2020. The authors found that throughout 2020, there is a positive trade balance in the foreign trade of the Russian Federation, which is an optimistic trend even in the context of a total decline in foreign trade. Taking into account the presented analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators, the authors consider the current experience of France in combating the economic recession, in particular, programs to support citizens, business and entrepreneurship. The study highlights the role of France as a country that has encouraged the EU countries to coordinate the efforts of all the countries of the European Union in the field of public health, protection of citizens and mitigation of the socio-economic consequences of the epidemic.

БЮДЖЕТНИЙ ДЕФІЦИТ І ФІНАНСУВАННЯ КРИТИЧНИХ ПОСЛУГ

Уточнено підходи щодо застосування дефіцитного бюджетного фінансування в проведенні фіскальної політики. Зроблено висновки, що аналіз дефіциту, що міститься в працях вітчизняних науковців, недостатньо враховує зміни обсягу і структури витрат, а також їх впливи на економічний і фінансовий розвиток країни. Зазначено, що внаслідок застосування механізмів дефіцитного бюджетного фінансування зростають видатки не тільки на обслуговування запозичень. Не менш важливого значення набувають і витрати, що направляються на фінансування погашення накопиченої заборгованості. Для їх покриття залучаються доходи недержавного бюджету, а кошти, отримані на основі розміщення додаткових запозичень або залучення ресурсу шляхом проведення операцій з державними активами. У період подолання викликів пандемії COVID-19 додаткові видатки бюджетів направляються переважно на забезпечення критичних послуг. Визначено фактори, що впливають на залучення додаткового ресурсу (з метою фінансування бюджетного дефіциту): доступ до ринків капіталу, рівень дохідності державних запозичень, динаміка макроекономічних показників, можливості проведення операцій з державними активами. Важливою умовою фінансування дефіциту бюджету є недопущення руйнівних впливів таких операцій на динаміку макроекономічних і фінансових показників країни. У розвинутих країнах утримання низьких процентних ставок значно зменшило негативні впливи від зведення бюджету з дефіцитом. Зроблено висновки, що в Україні утримування високої дохідності державних боргових інструментів посилює ризики проведення таких операцій. У період подолання наслідків пандемії доцільно переглянути чинні фіскальні правила і застосовувати спеціальні заходи щодо їх відновлення після подолання її наслідків.

Macroeconomic factors that influence the bank loans rate in international and Ukrainian practice

The goal of the paper is to disclose the links between the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and the level of bank loan rates based on international and Ukrainian practice. On the basis of the previous analysis, the paper also aims to identify the key trends in the formation of loan prices in the long run and identify problematic issues related to bank loan rates. The main characteristics of bank lending rates in Ukraine are: a) their high rates; b) sharp changes in the weighted average bank loan rates from year to year; c) higher loan rates for households compared to the cost of bank loans for businesses; d) higher bank loan rates for short- and medium-term loans versus long-term ones; e) lower rates on loans in foreign currency compared to the loans in hryvnia; and f) high share of non-performing loans to households and businesses in bank portfolios. In the context of world and Ukrainian practice, the paper demonstrates the reverse effect between macroeconomic indicators such as GDP per capita, the ratio of loans to GDP, the ease of doing business index and bank loan rates. The article also demonstrates a direct relationship between the dynamics of inflation rate in the country, the dynamics of non-performing bank loans and their rates.

BUDGET PLANNING IN THE CONDITIONS OF INSTITUTIONAL TRANSFORMATIONS

Background. Quality level of the budget planning is an important factor in ensuring balance of state and local budgets in the conditions of institutional transformations. Adop­tion of effective management decisions by public authorities and local governments involves the development of the budget planning system taking into account information technology, assessment of changes in socio-economic processes. The aim of the article is to reveal the areas of improvement of the budget planning system and its tools. Materials and methods. Thesystematic method has been used in determining nature and role of the budget planning in ensuring the stability and balance of state and local bud­gets. The comparative method is used in the process of generalizing the features of the budget planning tools. The method of scientific abstraction is used in the disclosure of theoretical and methodological principles of improving the budget planning system. The method of ana­lysis and the synthesis has been used to assess the planned and actual indicators (revenues, expenditures, deficit of the State Budget of Ukraine; public and guaranteed public debt). Results. The essence and role of the budget planning in ensuring the stability and balance of state and local budgets have been determined. Theoretical and methodological principles of functioning of the budget planning system have been revealed. The analysis and assessment of planned and actual indicators such as revenues, expenditures, deficit of the State Budget of Ukraine; public and guaranteed public debt for 2015–2019 have been made. The ways of improving the budget planning system in the conditions of institutional trans­formations have been substantiated. Conclusion. A detailed analysis and assessment of the impact of internal and external factors on the financial and economic environment is needed in order to develop the budget planning system in terms of institutional transformation. It will provide an opportunity to iden­tify regular trends in the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and budget indicators. An im­portant task is to develop economic and mathematical models based on the assessment of eco­no­mic development opportunities of the country, the tax potential of administrative territorial units. Keywords: budget policy, budget system, budget planning, budget revenues, budget expenditures, budget deficit, public debt.

ВПЛИВ МОНЕТАРНОЇ ТА ВИРОБНИЧО-ГОСПОДАРСЬКОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ НА СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНИЙ СТАН КРАЇНИ

Присвячено розробленню та обґрунтуванню методичного підходу, системи критеріїв та аналітично-оціночних показників, застосування яких дозволяють виявити причинно-наслідкові зв’язки розвитку економіки та тісноту кореляції між ними.
 Доведено, що недостатня дослідженість методів аналізу стану економіки та методологію визначення кількісного впливу виробничих і цінових факторів на динаміку макроекономічних індикаторів (ВВП, інфляція) зумовлює необхідність удосконалення методичних засад аналізу та кількісної оцінки впливу факторних показників на розвиток національної економіки.
 Аналіз стану і динаміки економіки України дозволив отримати висновок про нерівномірну динаміку базових показників, зумовлену кризовими процесами, які спричинили падіння та згортання макроекономічної динаміки.
 Для створення наукової концепції і стратегії сталого соціально-економічного розвитку країни запропоновано використання комплексного методу макроекономічного аналізу, який поєднує фактологічно-статистичний та економетричний методи.
 Можливість практичного застосування методу доведена побудовою п’яти економетричних моделей (номінального ВВП; реального ВВП; ВВП у доларовому обчисленні; індексу споживчих цін (індексу інфляції) залежно від індексів-дефляторів та облікової (ключової) ставки НБУ; індексу споживчих цін залежно від індексів-дефляторів та темпу зростання курсу грн/дол. США), параметри яких визначають достовірну міру кількісного впливу важелів виробничо-господарської і монетарної політики на розвиток економіки країни.
 Параметри побудованих моделей доводять кількісну міру впливу факторних чинників виробничої та монетарної політики на результативні індикатори соціально-економічної динаміки країни (реальний ВВП, рівень інфляції) за 19-річний період, у т. ч. за останнє п’ятиріччя (2014-2018 рр.).

КІЛЬКІСНІ АСПЕКТИ ПЕРЕБІГУ СУЧАСНОЇ ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ КРИЗИ В УКРАЇНІ

The article attempts to quantify the main parameters that characterize the economic crisis in Ukraine. Historical and systemic approaches are used as a basis of research methodology. In the course of the research the following methods were used: analysis to determine the comparative dynamics of macroeconomic indicators; Fourier analysis to determine the cyclical nature of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators, the calculation of the duration and length of cycles; f-statistics to confirm the validity of the performed theoretical approximation of the lines of dynamics; analysis of variance to assess the variability of macroeconomic indicators; synthesis to build a time map of the aggravation of the crisis period of Ukraine’s economy. A comparative analysis of the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators for the period 2010- 2020 in a quarterly manner. The cyclical nature of such dynamics is determined and formalized, with confirmation of reliability by means of f-statistics at the level of not less than 0.95. Two cycles of dynamics of macroeconomic indicators lasting 4 and 48 quarters were revealed. The beginning (IV quarter of 2010 / I quarter of 2011) and the end (IV quarter of 2023 / I quarter of 2024) of the modern period of economic crisis in Ukraine are determined. The variability of macroeconomic indicators according to their empirical values and deviations from the theoretical approximation of time lines is estimated and it is confirmed that the basis of variability of the analyzed indicators is their random fluctuations around the theoretical approximation of time lines. It was found that the greatest variability is inherent in price indices (consumer and industrial producers). The article further develops the methodological and practical principles of preventing the development of crisis processes in Ukraine by confirming their cyclicality and determining the duration of cycles, which allows to justify the application of countercyclical measures taking into account the specifics of quantitative patterns of crisis processes. The obtained results will contribute to the improvement of state regulation of economic development of Ukraine, taking into account its cyclical nature and duration of the current socioeconomic crisis.

ЕВРАЗИЙСКОЕ ПРОСТРАНСТВО В ПОСТ-КРИЗИСНОЙ МИРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКЕ И ЭНЕРГЕТИКЕ

The article considers some of the macroeconomic results of 2020 for the global economy and individual regions and countries of the world. The authors identify a number of distinctive features of the global economic crisis of 2020 and its impact on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators in individual regions and countries of the world (the Eurasian Economic Union, the European Union, and China). It is noted that during the crisis, negative trends in the world economy and politics became more acute and fundamental contradictions between the main participants in the world economy became tougher. At the same time, a high level of mutual dependence of the economies of the EU, EAEU, China and other Eurasian states was noted. Despite the crisis conditions and unfavorable political rhetoric, economic interests and the implementation of all – Eurasian projects can become a unifying factor for overcoming the crisis and forming new development models based on rational policies and the common benefit of the states of the Eurasian space.

Does the high-frequency data is helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?

Due to the fact that at the end of 2014 the Central Bank made the transition to a new monetary policy regime for Russia — the inflation targeting regime, the problem of forecasting inflation rates became more relevant than ever. In the new monetary policy regime, it is important for the Bank of Russia to estimate the future inflation rate as quickly as possible in order to take measures to return inflation to the target level. In addition, for effective monetary policy, the households must trust the actions of monetary authorities and they must be aware of the future dynamics of inflation. Thus, to manage inflationary expectations of economic agents, the Central Bank should actively use the information channel, publish accurate forecasts of consumer price growth. The aim of this work is to build a model for nowcasting, as well as short-term forecasting of the rate of Russian inflation using high-frequency data. Using this type of data in models for forecasting is very promising, since this approach allows to use more information about the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The paper shows that using MIDAS model with weekly frequency series (RUB/USD exchange rate, the interbank rate MIACR, oil prices) has more accurate forecast of monthly inflation compared to several basic models, which only use low-frequency data.

Региональные проявления шоков спроса и предложения: экономика Хабаровского края в период пандемии

The article provides an overview of the short-term dynamics of macroeconomic indicators for the Khabarovsk Territory during the COVID-19 pandemic after the introduction of temporary restrictive measures in April and May 2020. The impact of these measures extended both to the elements of regional aggregate demand and aggregate supply. From the point of view of the theory of short-run economic fluctuations, aggregate supply and demand shocks, such as those that occurred in the initial period of the pandemic, lead to a reduction in aggregate output followed by an increase in actual and natural rate of unemployment. Expectations have an additional negative impact since the growth of uncertainty gives rise to an increase in savings and an additional reduction in consumer activity. In the case of Khabarovsk Territory it is shown that the most affected industries of the economy were retail trade and services. Both industries experienced a negative shock in April, but while the former began recovery as early as May, the latter returned to the growth trajectory only in June. Residents changed their income usage patterns due to the restrictions on the consumer market, as well as to increased uncertainty about their future income. The share of net savings and cash balances increased with a corresponding decrease in the share of spending on goods and services. A negative supply shock contributed to a sharp rise in unemployment up to 24.5 thousand unemployed in the third quarter of 2020. Starting from the fourth quarter unemployment began to decline rapidly, but it had not reached pre-pandemic level of less than 7 thousand unemployed by the second quarter of 2021. It is shown that the permanent population outmigration, which increased in 2020, is a specific feature of the regional labor market. It has slowed down the return of the regional aggregate supply to its pre-pandemic positions after the restrictions were cancelled

CONSIDERING THE STATE OF THE UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN THE ENTERPRISES FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY MODELING

Construction of a model for predicting the bankruptcy of the enterprise is an urgent and popular task. Using this model will provide an opportunity to make quick and accurate assessment of financial sustainability, predict possible bankruptcy advance and take the necessary action to avoid it. Obviously, bankruptcy can occur both under the influence of internal factors (in particular, financial management errors) and when the economic environment changes. The inclusion of all possible en-vironmental factors influencing into the model is a difficult task and causes an over-load of such a model with a large number of input signals. A more realistic option is to build a model using internal financial indicators only, but under a relatively con-stant external environment. The subject of the study described in the article is the general homogeneity of the Ukrainian economy over time in the context of the possibility of using companies’ reports for these periods to build a neural network model of financial sustainability of enterprises using only internal financial indicators. To separate stable periods from unstable ones, a review of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine for the period 2010–2019 is used. Graphical analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators is used as a methodology. The purpose of this study is to identify periods of Ukraine’s economy, the conditions of which are quite stable to take reports of enterprises of these periods for a dataset formation. The article considers the dynamics of the following indicators of Ukraine’s economy: gross domestic product, hryvnia exchange rate, employment, consumer price index, total net profit (loss) of enterprises by size of enterprises, levels of profitability of operating activities, foreign trade indicators by geographical areas (imports and exports of goods and services) etc. The study pays special attention to the economic crisis of 2014–2015 and to changes in the economic environment, which distinguish the conditions before and after the crisis. The main conclusions of the article are the recognition of the existence of crisis phenomena in the period 2014–2015 and the recognition of the difference between the post-crisis period and the pre-crisis period. In order to build an up-to-date model of financial sustainability, it is recommended to use report data for periods not earlier than 2016.

GEORGIA IN THE WORLD OF CORONOMICS: THREATS AND CHALLENGES

So far, much has been written and discussed about the rapid variability and complex predictability of the global economy, and different countries have more or less successfully dealt with the challenges they face. However, the global threat posed by the world in the form of COVID-19 puts the methods and approaches to combating economic crises completely upside down. What should be the strategy and tactics of the countries to start recovering the economies as quickly as possible under such kind of circumstances? In such a situation, it should be the best way to “hurry up slowly,” that is, to be thoroughly consistent so that short-term emergency measures do not harm long-term goals. Given the conditions of coronomics and the lessons the world has learned from it at this stage, recovery of the economics, in the earlier sense of the term, should be completely ineffective. We are accustomed to the fact that in the post-crisis period, economic recovery in a sense implies a more or less back-off to what was before the crisis. Given that this time a completely different “crisis” is occurring, essential structural changes and important transformations in many areas of the economy are needed to overcome its consequences. One of the clear lessons that must to be learned from Coronomics is that returning to what was already before would not be the right course of action for the economies focused on the sustainable development. Georgia is a small open economy, and the fate of such economies has already been decided in advance: they will not be able to influence the global economy, and their efforts must be directed to protect themselves from the negative effects of the ongoing processes in the world. What are the priorities for such countries on this path if traditional sectors are vulnerable to certain types of crises and fail to cope with the task of generating revenue in extreme situations that are necessary, on the one hand, to balance their demands and, on the other hand, to meet external obligations? This is the reality that Georgia has faced in the face of coronomics. How did the Georgian economy meet the shock of COVID-19? 2019 will be a turning point in many years for assessing economic outcomes, not just in Georgia. What are the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and do they give a positive signal according to the data of this period? This article deals with the external economic aspects of these indicators. The current account deficit as of 2019 was $ 900.5 million, or 5.1 percent of gross domestic product. Historically, this is the best indicator in the history of independent Georgia. On the other hand, historically, the country›s external liabilities, which amount to $ 34.5 billion, are 1.9 times higher than Gross Domestic Product and 3.2 times higher than the country›s foreign financial assets; The country›s external debt was 1.1 times higher than GDP at the end of 2019, while imports accounted for 40.8 percent of total consumption (intermediate and final). Thus, Georgia›s positioning on the challenges of COVID-19 is completely unfavorable and critical. This article aims to discuss the main aspects of the country›s foreign sector accounts, the profitable and deficient articles of the balance of payments that traditionally determine the state of the current account, and how vulnerable these items are to external factors and shocks. The focus on this issue is to explore the ways in which it is possible to reduce the degree of dependence of the country›s economy on foreign shocks and achieve external economic stability. However, it should be noted that the format of the article is not sufficient for in-depth discussion of a number of causeand-effect issues, for the evaluation of perspectives, and for deeper and more substantiated reasoning. Therefore, it can be said that the paper forms the main postulates on the issues under consideration, which together and each of them deserves in-depth research, but not in terms of fragmentary time and content, but in a complex and permanent mode.

Influence of tax, customs-tariff and macroeconomic factors on on the indicators of economic efficiency of oil-refining enterprises

The article presents arguments substantiating the influence of tax factors on the indicators of economic efficiency of oil and gas enterprises. The paper gives an interpretation of the influence of tax, customs-tariff, and macroeconomic factors on the indicators of economic efficiency of oil refining enterprises. The authors consider and set the objectives of the influence of tax, customs-tariff and macroeconomic factors. The study provides statistics of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation on the amounts of lost oil and gas revenues from the federal budget. The article considers the exchange rate as one of the key factors influencing the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The paper analyses the prices of “Urals” crude oil on the world oil industry markets. The authors discuss changes and modernization of the oil-refining industry.

Mortgage Lending as a Component of Economic Growth

The purpose of the article is to reveal the role and importance of the mortgage lending development to overcome the financial and economic crisis and ensure the positive dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The article reveals the essence of mortgage lending, substantiates the necessity of its development and improvement to create an effective mortgage lending system in Ukraine, which helps to solve the problems related to providing housing for the population and accelerating the development of not only the construction industry but also related areas of the activity. It is proven within the study that the volume and dynamics of the investment in housing has a significant impact on the macroeconomics, and therefore, by improving the mortgage lending system, it is possible to transmit positive impulses to the real sector of the economy and bring the country out of crisis. The article outlines the features of a mortgage lending which distinguish it into a separate sphere in the credit market. Based on these features, the functions of mortgage lending in modern conditions are defined, namely: investment, social, stimulating, and formation of the fictitious capital in the securities market. The research proves the importance of developing and improving mortgage lending by identifying the benefits and disadvantages of all credit entities. On the basis of statistics, the main parameters of the domestic mortgage market, which indicate a conservative approach to the formation of lending conditions and the reluctance of banking institutions to provide long-term mortgages, are determined. The main reason for this situation is the imperfect legal base of real estate lending. It has been concluded by the study results that mortgage lending is an important tool for ensuring the social and economic growth of a country, and its role and importance have increased significantly since the financial and economic crisis. JEL classіfіcatіon: G21 Manuscript received 27.04.2020