Dry Months Research Articles

Spatial Variation of Pollutant (NO2, SO2 & CO) and Its Impact Factors in Jakarta: An Application of Sentinel-5P Products

Abstract This study investigates the impact of transportation, manufacturing, and energy sectors on air quality in Jakarta using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and remote sensing data. Utilizing datasets from Sentinel-5P for NO2, SO2, and CO concentrations, and predictor variables including road density, industrial activity, and energy production, the research aims to quantify the spatial heterogeneity of air pollution. The findings reveal significant spatial variations in pollutant concentrations across Jakarta and its neighbouring provinces, Banten and West Java, during the dry and wet months of 2023. High NO2 levels were primarily linked to dense traffic in central Jakarta, while elevated SO2 and CO concentrations were associated with industrial and energy activities in the peripheral regions. Seasonal analysis indicated that meteorological factors play a crucial role in pollutant dispersion. The integration of remote sensing data with GWR provided a robust framework for environmental monitoring, addressing gaps in traditional air quality observation methods. This research contributes to the broader understanding of urban air pollution dynamics and offers a replicable model for other regions facing similar challenges.

Mapping Species Distributions of Latoia consocia Walker under Climate Change Using Current Geographical Presence Data and MAXENT (CMIP 6).

Latoia consocia Walker is an important phytophagous pest that has rapidly spread across North China in recent years, posing a severe threat to related plants. To study the impact of climatic conditions on its distribution and to predict its distribution under current and future climate conditions, the MaxEnt niche model and ArcGIS 10.8 software were used. The results showed that the MaxEnt model performs well in predicting the distribution of L. consocia, with an AUC value of 0.913. The annual precipitation (Bio12), the precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), the temperature annual range (Bio7), and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) are key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of L. consocia. Under current climate conditions, L. consocia has a highly suitable growth area of 2243 km2 in China, among which Taiwan has the largest high-suitable area with a total area of 1450 km2. With climate warming, the potential habitat area for L. consocia shows an overall decreasing trend in future. This work provides a scientific basis for research on pest control and ecological protection. A "graded response" detection and early warning system, as well as prevention and control strategies, can be developed for potentially suitable areas to effectively address this pest challenge.

A multiscale analysis of factors influencing Setophaga striata (Blackpoll Warbler) occupancy and abundance during the nonbreeding season in eastern Colombia

Abstract Setophaga striata (Blackpoll Warbler), one of the few boreal-breeding migratory birds that migrates to the Orinoco and Amazon regions, is experiencing steep population declines. However, knowledge of the species’ distribution and habitat use during the nonbreeding season is limited. Here, we explore how stationary nonbreeding season (December to April) occupancy probabilities vary across regional and landscape scales, and with vegetation structure for S. striata in eastern Colombia. By running single-species, single-season hierarchical occupancy models and N-mixture models, we evaluated how regional (annual precipitation, nonbreeding season precipitation, driest month, elevation, and net primary productivity), landscape (habitat type and % forest in the landscape), and vegetation structure variables influenced occupancy by S. striata. In the regional analysis, occupancy was positively influenced by stationary nonbreeding precipitation and net primary productivity, and was predicted to peak at elevations between 500 and 1,000 m. At the landscape scale, occupancy and abundance were higher in agroforestry systems (in order of magnitude: shade-grown cacao, citrus plantations and silvopastures) than in forested habitats. In relation to vegetation structure, occupancy was negatively correlated with a principal component containing shrub density, canopy height, and canopy cover. Within the Orinoco region, a spatial prediction based on our results supported high occupancy rates in moister areas along and close to the Andean foothills and where the Orinoco grasslands transition into Amazonian forests. Our results highlight the importance of landscapes containing agroforestry systems as stationary nonbreeding habitats for S. striata in Colombia’s Orinoco region and the importance of promoting agroforestry systems, like shade-grown cacao, in areas with higher nonbreeding season precipitation and net primary productivity values in order to increase habitat availability for the species.

Effect of sponge city facilities on the exposure characteristics and ecological risks of antibiotics in urban inland lakes: A case study at Fuzhou, China.

Antibiotics are increasingly found in urban lakes, posing significant ecological risks to lake ecosystems. The impact of sponge city facilities on urban flood control is significant; however, their influence on the exposure characteristics and risks associated with antibiotics in urban inland lakes remains unclear. This study investigated the exposure characteristics and evaluated the ecological risks of 15 antibiotics across seven lakes of Fuzhou (as the target of sponge city) in different seasons, in comparison to non-sponge cities. The results revealed that 12 antibiotics were consistently detectable across all lakes, with concentrations ranging from non-detectable (ND) to 20.61ng/L, with sulfamethoxazole (SMX) emerging as the predominant contaminant. Most antibiotics exhibited higher concentrations in the dry season, attributed to environmental conditions, biological mechanisms, and their physicochemical properties. SMX, tetracycline (TTC), oxytetracycline (OTC), and ciprofloxacin (CIP) posed moderate to high ecological risks, with risk quotient (RQ) values of 0.46, 0.14, 0.17, and 0.61, respectively, while the remaining antibiotics presented lower ecological risks in both seasons. Notably, the RQ values for TTC, OTC, and CIP were elevated during the dry season, whereas SMX displayed a higher RQ value in the wet season, indicating an increased ecological risk during the dry months. In comparison to non-sponge cities, sponge cities exhibited significantly lower concentrations of nearly all antibiotics, particularly during the wet season (p ≤ 0.05). Moreover, over 85% of the antibiotics in non-sponge cities were classified as high risk, contrasted with only 55% in sponge cities, underscoring the heightened ecological risks associated with non-sponge urban designs. This study provides critical insights for controlling antibiotic pollution in the lakes of Fuzhou and serves as a valuable reference for maintaining aquatic ecosystem health through the implementation of sponge city infrastructure.

Diversity pattern of Symplocos tree species in China under climate change scenarios: Toward conservation planning

Symplocos, a genus rich in endemic and keystone species in China's subtropical forests, plays a vital role in maintaining biodiversity. Climate change impacts on Symplocos trees affect ecosystem composition, dynamics, and functions. This study delves into the potential ramifications of climate change on the distribution and richness of Symplocos species across China under different climatic conditions. A comprehensive analysis was conducted using occurrence records of 29 species of Symplocos, focusing on habitat suitability modeling and spatial analysis, to demonstrate the possible effects of climate change on the distribution and diversity patterns of Symplocos species in China. Environmental data, including bioclimatic variables, were collected, and the future climate scenarios were projected using the combined average of the two global climate models. Four modeling algorithms were applied in an ensemble species distribution models to assess the distribution of Symplocos species and decipher the pattern of species richness and endemism. The results indicate high accuracy and performance of the models with a mean AUC of 0.94 and TSS of 0.77, particularly the random forest. The analysis identified key bioclimatic variables influencing Symplocos species distribution, with precipitation patterns (precipitation of driest month and precipitation of warmest quarter) and temperature variability (temperature mean diurnal range) playing significant roles. Predictions suggest a reduction in Symplocos species richness over the next six decades, particularly in southern and southwestern China, with potential gains in other regions. Overall, this study highlights the vulnerability of Symplocos species to climate change and underscores the importance of proactive conservation efforts and forest plantations to mitigate future loss in Symplocos species diversity.

Current and Future Distribution of the Cataglyphis nodus (Brullé, 1833) in the Middle East and North Africa

Climate change is a major threat to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which can cause significant harm to its plant and animal species. We predicted the habitat distribution of Cataglyphis nodus (Brullé, 1833) in MENA using MaxEnt models under current and future climate conditions. Our analysis indicates that the cooler regions of the MENA are projected to experience temperature increases of 1–2 °C by 2040 and 2–4 °C by the 2070s. Similarly, the warmer regions may anticipate rises of 0.5–2 °C by 2040 and 2–4 °C by the 2070s. MaxEnt model results for the current climate show good agreement with observations (mean area under the curve value of 0.975 and mean true statistical skill value of 0.8), indicating good potential habitat suitability for C. nodus. Significant factors affecting habitat suitability are elevation, mean monthly precipitation of the coldest quarter, temperature seasonality, and precipitation amount of the driest month. The research predicts that under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1.2.6, the habitat suitability area may increase by 6% in 2040, while SSP 3.7.0 (0.3%) and SSP 5.8.5 (2.6%) predict a decrease. For 2070, SSP 5.8.5 predicts a 2.2% reduction in habitat suitability, while SSP 1.2.6 (0.4%) and SSP 3.7.0 (1.3%) predict slight increases. The results provide insight into the potential impacts of climate change on the species and regional biodiversity changes associated with the projected species distribution.

How Local Pollution and Transboundary Air Pollution Impact Air Quality in Jakarta?

Jakarta’s rapid population growth and industrialization have severely impacted air quality, with limited monitoring stations and increasingly complex pollutant sources influenced by meteorological factors. Source apportionment studies are critical for addressing urban air quality issues because knowing the source of pollution is an important step in overcoming urban air quality problems. This study uses the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) models to analyze the distribution and sources of NO2, SO2, and CO in Jakarta and surrounding areas. Data includes spatial information from road networks, industries, and the energy sector during the wet (December) and dry (June) months of 2023. GWR results show that network density significantly contributes to pollutant concentrations, particularly during the dry month, while industrial and energy sectors display seasonal variations. The HYSPLIT model indicates that in December, air masses carrying pollutants mainly originate from the northwest and north, and in June, from the southeast and southwest. These patterns underscore the regional influence of transboundary air pollution from industrial and energy plants. The combined GWR and HYSPLIT findings provide a comprehensive understanding of air pollution dynamics and the critical role of meteorological factors in pollutant distribution.

Tree mortality by ecological groups in the amazon region: Influence of forest structure, soil characteristics, and extreme climatic events after logging

Mortality of remaining trees tends to increase after logging, and adapting forest management to climate change is another significant challenge to ensure the sustainability of forests, timber production, and provision of ecosystem services. This study investigated mortality in remaining trees (DBH ≥ 20 cm) in different ecological groups (pioneer, light-demanding, and shade-tolerant) during different phases of forest monitoring (initial, intermediate, and final), as well as their relationship with structural, climatic, and environmental characteristics. The research was conducted in five managed areas in the Brazilian Amazon (Jari, Km114, Km67, Peteco, and Moju) with continuous monitoring over six to 33 years. We analyzed a total of 212 permanent plots containing 62 pioneer species, 250 light-demanding species, and 304 shade-tolerant species. The mortality rate for the three monitoring phases in logged forests was 1.27 %, 1.49 %, and 0.75 % year−1, respectively, while the rate in unlogged forests was 1.04 %, 1.33 %, and 0.50 % year−1. In post-logging forests, mortality was high for pioneer and light-demanding species, especially in the initial phase. For shade-tolerant species, mortality rate was influenced by soil silt and sand content, presence of phosphorus, and total carbon content. In unlogged forests, forest structure variables such as average height and total basal area, soil characteristics like phosphorus content, and climate factors such as intensity of dry months were most important for pioneer and light-demanding species. In the intermediate and final monitoring phases in logged forests, tree mortality was related to soil characteristics like sand and clay content, total carbon, and cation exchange capacity. Extreme climatic events such as severe drought, El Niño, and extreme temperatures also influenced tree mortality, along with time elapsed after logging. These findings highlight the complex interaction between soil characteristics, climate, and forest structure and tree mortality and ecology. These correlations are crucial to understand mortality processes in logged and unlogged forests, underscoring the importance of these factors for managing and conserving these ecosystems in the face of extreme climatic events and forest management practices.

Effects of Environmental Factors on the Diversity of Grasshopper Communities along Altitude Gradients in Xizang, China.

To determine the grasshopper species composition, altitudinal distribution patterns, and their main drivers, we conducted a study in Xizang using 33 sample plots ranging from 600 to 4100 m. Grasshoppers were collected from August to October during 2020-2022 using sweep nets. A total of 1159 grasshoppers from six families, 28 genera, and 44 species were identified, with Omocestus cuonaensis and Aserratus eminifrontus as the dominant species, comprising 30.03% and 10.26% of total grasshoppers, respectively. The results showed that species richness and the Margalef richness index of grasshopper communities decreased significantly (p < 0.05) with increasing altitude, peaking at 1100-1600 m and lowest values at 2600-3100 m. Similarly, the Shannon-Wiener index and Simpson dominance index also decreased significantly (p < 0.05) with an increase in altitude, showing the highest and lowest values at 600-1100 m and 3100-3600 m, respectively. The Jaccard similarity coefficients among grasshopper communities varied from 0 to 0.40 across altitudinal gradients, indicating different degrees of dissimilarity. The results of Pearson correlation analyses showed that the Shannon-Wiener index, species richness, Margalef richness index, and Simpson dominance index of grasshopper communities were significantly negatively correlated with the temperature factors and soil pH, but they were significantly positively correlated with the moisture factors. Hierarchical partitioning identified annual mean temperature-daily difference, precipitation in the coldest season, and driest month precipitation as the primary factors explaining variance in grasshopper community diversity in Xizang. These findings provided greater insights into the mechanisms underlying insect community structure, distribution patterns, and diversity in Xizang ecosystems, including implications for the effects of global warming on insect communities.

Predicting Polygonum capitatum distribution in China across climate scenarios using MaxEnt modeling

Climate change affects the geographical distribution of species. Predicting the future potential areas suitable for certain species is of great significance for understanding their distribution characteristics and exerting their value. Based on the data of 276 effective distribution points of Polygonum capitatum and 20 ecological factors, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and the ArcGIS software were employed to predict the areas suitable for P. capitatum growth, and the main environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of this species were explored. Under the current climatic conditions, the areas highly suitable for P. capitatum are mainly distributed in southwestern China, with a small number of sites in coastal areas and most sites in Guizhou Province. Under different climate scenarios, the suitable areas were reduced to varying degrees. The dominant environmental variables affecting the distribution of P. capitatum were precipitation in the driest month, annual precipitation, and elevation, with a cumulative contribution rate of 84.1%. Against the background of a changing climate, the areas suitable for P. capitatum in China will be widely distributed in the southwestern region, with Guizhou Province and Yunnan Province as the main distribution areas; some sites will also be distributed throughout the southwest of Tibet Autonomous Region, the south of Sichuan Province, the north of Guangxi Autonomous Region, and the coastal area of Fujian Province. Optimal conditions for P. capitatum include a dry month precipitation range of 13.4 to 207.3 mm, elevations from 460.3 to 7214.3 m, and annual precipitation between 810 and 1575 mm. Given these insights, we recommend enhanced conservation efforts in current prime habitats and exploring potential cultivation in newly identified suitable regions to ensure the species’ preservation and sustainable use.

Atmospheric dynamics and fire-induced phenomena: Insights from a comprehensive analysis of the Sertã wildfire event

The Sertã wildfire started on October 15th, 2017, in a mountainous area in central Portugal, on the hottest day of an exceptionally dry month compared to the previous two decades. This dry spell was attributed to a persistent heatwave from October 1st to 16th, which impacted most of mainland Portugal. Due to the critical weather and vegetation conditions, the fire was very intense, generating a thermal plume that reached high altitudes. The main purpose of this work is to analyze and discuss the impact of the Sertã wildfire on the dynamics of atmospheric mountain circulation. To accomplish this, a numerical modeling system integrating meteorological, fire spread, and smoke dispersion models was employed. The results indicate that the interaction between the wildfire and the local mountain breeze in central Portugal, under the synoptic weather conditions in Europe, which included the Hurricane Ophelia over the Atlantic Ocean and a warm-sector polar frontal depression in northern Europe, led to a locally disturbed weather situation. The consistent, efficient, and uniform local transport of atmospheric properties at lower levels was disrupted, intensifying wind shear and developing more turbulent advection patterns. Moreover, the fire's impact contributed to the development of a baroclinic wave at 500 hPa over mass centers, which settled at the surface and enhanced cloud development over the region. This phenomenon aligns with the atmospheric circulation effects studied in the Bjerknes and Rossby theories.

Diagnosis, treatment and prognosis of Fournier’s gangrene in Africa: a scoping review protocol

Abstract Fournier’s gangrene is a rare necrotizing soft-tissue infection affecting the perineal, perianal and genital regions. It constitutes a genuine medical, surgical and urological emergency. Despite a better understanding of the etiology and pathophysiology of Fournier’s gangrene, mortality rates reported in the literature remain high. Still very common in Africa, it seems to occur mainly during hot, dry months and particularly affects people of low socio-economic status. This explains why the diagnosis is often made at a late stage. To our knowledge, there is no literature evaluating the epidemiology, clinical presentation, management and prognosis of Fournier’s gangrene in Africa, necessitating a review of the scope. This literature review protocol describes how the authors intend to study the available data on the presentation, management and prognosis of Fournier’s gangrene in Africa. Databases such as PubMed/Medline, Embase, Google Scholar and African Journal Online will be searched for articles published on Fournier’s gangrene in Africa and covering clinical, therapeutic and prognostic outcomes. The sociodemographic profile of all included studies will be examined. Results will include epidemiological, clinico-biological, severity score, management and prognostic data. Based on the analyzed results, the various parameters linked to the specific objectives of the African and non-African studies will be discussed and compared. This discussion will focus on clinical presentation, management and prognosis. This scoping review will be the first to address this research question, which has yet to be reported serially by African authors.

Improved WRF simulation of surface temperature and urban heat island intensity over Metro Manila, Philippines

Accurate representation of the land use/land cover (LULC) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been shown to be crucial for improved simulation of surface variables and urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. In this study, a ground truthed LULC dataset over Metro Manila (MM) was integrated in the WRF model to assess and quantify the relative contributions of using an updated land use/land cover (ULULC), activating the single-layer urban canopy model (WSLUCM) and anthropogenic heat (WAH), and consideration of urban surface heterogeneity (LIR) representation on simulated Surface Temperature (ST) relative to the default model settings (CTRL) of the WRF model. Additionally, the study examines the daytime and nighttime UHI features over MM, using a reference simulation where urban grids were replaced with cropland (CRP). Numerical simulations were carried out for April 2018, a typical dry month without monsoonal influence over MM to get a clear UHI characterization. Data from nine weather stations distributed across MM was used for performance evaluation. Results show negligible daytime biases in ST for CTRL, ULULC, and WAH, and underestimated ST for WSLUCM. At night, CTRL and ULULC (WSLUCM and WAH) tend to overestimate (underestimate) ST. Of the four factors analyzed, updating LULC, using SLUCM, including AH, and accounting for urban surface heterogeneity can change daytime ST by 0.3 °C, -0.6 °C, 0.3 °C, and 0 °C, respectively, and nighttime ST by 0.5 °C, -1.2 °C, 0.3 °C, and 0.4 °C, respectively. Widespread daytime warming and a distinct nocturnal UHI following urbanization were confirmed for MM when the LULC accounted for urban heterogeneity. While data limitations for MM limit the specification of the SLUCM, its UHI features are best represented in WRF when an updated land cover dataset is used.

The Potential Habitat Response of Cyclobalanopsis gilva to Climate Change.

Cyclobalanopsis gilva, a valuable timber species in China, holds significant importance for understanding the constraints imposed by climate change on the dynamic geographic distribution of tree species. This study utilized the MaxEnt maximum entropy model to reconstruct the migratory dynamics of C. gilva geographical distribution since the Last Glacial Maximum. The objective was to comprehend the restrictive mechanisms of environmental factors on its potential geographical distribution, aiming to provide insights for mid-to-long-term afforestation planning of C. gilva. The optimized MaxEnt model exhibited a significantly high predictive accuracy, with an average AUC value of 0.949 ± 0.004 for the modern suitable habitat model of C. gilva. The total suitable habitat area for C. gilva in contemporary times was 143.05 × 104 km2, with a highly suitable habitat area of 3.14 × 104 km2. The contemporary suitable habitat was primarily located in the southeastern regions of China, while the highly suitable habitat was concentrated in eastern Fujian and central-eastern Taiwan. Bioclimatic variables such as mean diurnal range (Bio2), min temperature of coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) predominantly influenced the modern geographic distribution pattern of C. gilva, with temperature factors playing a leading role. With global climate warming, there is a risk of fragmentation or even loss of suitable habitat for C. gilva by 2050 and 2090. Therefore, the findings of this study can significantly contribute to initiating a habitat conservation campaign for this species.

Spatial and temporal variability of meteorological droughts including atmospheric circulation in Central Europe

Drought is one of the natural phenomena influencing many aspects of human activities like water scarcity, food production, agriculture, industry and ecological conditions of the environment. For decades, drought has caused huge financial losses in Europe and around the world. In the area of the Polish Carpathians, there are periods with a deficit of rainwater and increasing frequency of dry months especially in the cold half-year. However, only a limited number of studies exist about the spatial and temporal variability of meteorological drought and the main mechanisms determining its performance in Central Europe. The aim of this work is to perform the spatial and temporal analysis of drought, expressed as SPI, in a heterogenous area of the Polish Carpathian and the highland region in the East-Central part of Europe based on long-term precipitation data. Moreover, for the first time in this work drought characteristics assessed by means of the SPI were discussed considering the atmospheric circulation calendar. In this work monthly precipitation from 55 rainfall stations were analysed from 1961 to 2022. The 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used as indicators of meteorological drought. For the 3-month SPI, the main climatic mechanisms determining extreme droughts were defined based on the calendar of synoptic circulations. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect the trend of extreme droughts. Statistically significant trends of SPI were observed on 52.7% of all analyzed stations and, in most cases, a positive trend was observed, indicating an increase in water resources in the Upper Vistula Basin. Statistically significant trends were more frequently observed in stations located in the western part of the analyzed region. Long-term droughts, represented by the 12-month SPI, occurred in all stations but not in all years. Short-term droughts (3-month SPI) were most frequent in the winter season, 6- and 9-month SPI in winter and spring, and 12-month SPI in winter and autumn. The spatial distribution of droughts was highly diverse. The most intensive drought occurred in 1984, with the 6-month SPI covering 98% of the analyzed region, and the 9- and 12-month SPI covering 90% of the entire region. Droughts exhibit a seasonal pattern, with a dominant 10-year periodicity for all analyzed variants of SPI. Additionally, Fourier analysis revealed a 2-year periodicity for the 3-, 6-, and 9-month SPI and a 31-year periodicity for the 12-month SPI. The results provide insights into the typical climatic conditions in Poland, with strong seasonality in precipitation. The study highlighted that short-term extreme droughts, represented by the 3-month SPI, are often caused by anticyclonic situations with high-pressure wedges Ka and Wa, as observed in 52.3% of cases. These findings are crucial for understanding the spatial and temporal variability of short and long-term extreme droughts in Central Europe, particularly for the agriculture sector which is dominant in the northern part of the analyzed region, where drought frequency is highest.

Assessment of dry matter yield, nutritional value, and calf weight gain in Mombaza-Kudzu pasture associations.

O Objective: To evaluate the biomass production, nutritional value and animal production of an association with fabaceae species and grasses with grazing calves. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study compared Mombaza (Megathyrsus maximus) – Kudzu (Pueraria phaseoloides) association pasture against a Mombaza in monoculture control. Ten calves, five in each pasture type, were grazed in rotation for seven months. Dry matter yield, proportion of Kudzu in the association, protein, neutral detergent fiber (NDF), acid detergent fiber (ADF), ash, and daily weight gain were evaluated every 36 days. Results: Dry matter yield did not differ between pasture types, but varied by sampling dates, being higher at the onset of the rainy season (May 20th). The proportion of Kudzu in the association was low, decreasing from 8.42% to 1.71% over the study period. Lignin content increased in the association during the driest month (April). Daily weight gain was 978 g in the monoculture pasture and 678 g/day in the association, with no significant difference. Study Limitations/Implications: The low persistence of the fabaceae in the association limits the nutritional value of the pasture, consequently, the improvement of grazing animal production. Findings/Conclusions: During the drought season, both pastures exhibited the highest protein concentration and the greatest weight gain at the beginning of this period. However, the association did not result in greater weight gains due to the low persistence of the fabaceae.

Using natural tracers and calibrated analytical filter to highlight baseflow contribution to mountainous Mediterranean rivers in a context of climate change

Baseflow defined as the contribution of groundwater and delayed subsurface flow, is generally described by indices such as the baseflow index (BFI), the long-term ratio of baseflow to streamflow. Characterizing baseflow is challenging because it is not directly accessible, particularly in sensitive areas to climate change like the mountainous Mediterranean regions with hard-rock aquifers. In these areas, little is known about the temporal and spatial contribution of baseflow to streamflow. This study aimed to address this scientific gap by using the first calibrated and validated recursive digital filter with natural tracers for such regions. Two watersheds of Corsica (France), the Tavignanu and the Fiumaltu, were chosen as application models for calibration and validation, respectively, due to their representative characteristics of these regions. Various methods exist for baseflow analysis, including empirical, analytical and physical methods. Empirical and analytical methods, such as digital filters, are easy to use but lack physical significance. Conversely, physical methods using natural tracers, such as isotopes and ions, are more physically representative but are difficult to implement. By calibrating and validating analytical methods with tracers in this specific context, we were able to leverage the strengths of both approaches for effective long-term baseflow analysis. This innovative approach confirmed that baseflow was the main contributor to river flow during dry months, with a contribution of 88–90 % for both watersheds. Notably, baseflow remained a significant contributor during periods of high flow, averaging 54 % for the Tavignanu and 60 % for the Fiumaltu. Over a 25-year period, the mean annual contribution was substantial, at 73 % for the Tavignanu and 77 % for the Fiumaltu. In a particularly dry year, which are expected to become more common with climate change, baseflow contribution was even higher, confirming its origin from deep groundwater and delayed subsurface components. Our results demonstrate that, in the context of climate change, groundwater and delayed subsurface flow will play an increasingly important role in sustaining rivers, connected ecosystems, as well as many human activities in the mountainous Mediterranean regions.

Modeling the current and future habitat suitability of Neltuma pallida in the dry forest of northern Peru under climate change scenarios to 2100.

The development of anthropic activities and climate change effects impact worldwide species' ecosystems and habitats. Habitats' adequate prediction can be an important tool to assess current and future trends. In addition, it allows strategies development for their conservation. The Neltuma pallida of the forest region in northern Peru, although very significant, has experienced a decline in recent years. The objective of this research is to evaluate the current and future distribution and conservation status of N. pallida in the Peruvian dry forest under climate change (Location: Republic of Peru). A total of 132 forest presence records and 10 variables (bioclimatic, topographic, and soil) were processed and selected to obtain the current and future distribution for 2100, using Google Earth Engine (GEE), RStudio, and MaxEnt. The area under the curve values fell within the range of 0.93-0.95, demonstrating a strong predictive capability for both present and future potential habitats. The findings indicated that the likely range of habitats for N. pallida was shaped by factors such as the average temperature of wettest quarter, maximum temperature of warmest month, elevation, rainfall, and precipitation of driest month. The main suitable areas were in the central regions of the geographical departments of Tumbes, Piura, and Lambayeque, as well as in the northern part of La Libertad. It is critical to determine the habitat suitability of plant species for conservation managers since this information stimulates the development of policies that favor sustainable use programs. In addition, these results can contribute significantly to identify new areas for designing strategies for populations conserving and recovering with an ecological restoration approach.

The Relationship of Surface Ozone Pollution with Meteorological Conditions in Determining Episode Periods

Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, is located in a tropical region with abundant sunlight and high temperatures year-round. Ozone and particulate matter (PM) are critical parameters causing unhealthy air pollution. Meteorological data were obtained from the NASA Power website. This study aims to explore the relationship between ozone formation and meteorological factors in Jakarta. Ozone air quality data were measured using the Backman model 950A ozone Analyzer, which detects concentrations as low as 0.05 ppm, with measurements taken every 40 seconds. From January to October 2023, ozone concentrations increased during the dry months of May to October, with the highest hourly value recorded at 263 μg/m³. During this period, average temperatures ranged from 27-29°C, rainfall was 0.3-5.6 mm, wind speeds were 3.14-4.64 m/s, wind direction was 92-171 degrees, and air humidity was 74-82%. Significant episodes were identified on (i) May 5-9, (ii) July 12-15, (iii) September 6-7, (iv) September 13-14, (v) September 21-22, and (vi) October 29-30, 2023. Daily, monthly, and seasonal ozone variations aligned with meteorological conditions, showing higher concentrations during the dry months. Further studies, including photochemical modeling, are required to identify dominant factors causing high ozone concentrations during these episodes. Understanding NOx or VOC emission sensitivities is crucial for effective ozone abatement strategies in Jakarta.

Assessing four decades of fire behavior dynamics in the Cerrado biome (1985 to 2022)

BackgroundFire significantly transforms ecology and landscapes worldwide, impacting carbon cycling, species interactions, and ecosystem functions. In the Brazilian Cerrado, a fire-dependent savanna, the interaction between fire, society, and the environment is evident. Given that wildfires significantly contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, our study aimed to analyze four decades of burned area data to understand changes in fire dynamics, using Collection 2 of annual MapBiomas Fire maps (1985 to 2022). Our study examined spatiotemporal patterns, fire recurrence, fire distribution across land uses, temporal changes in fire scar size, burned area variations across ecoregions, and their correlation with farming areas.ResultsFrom 1985 to 2022, fire impacted 40% (792,204 km2) of the Cerrado biome, with 63% burning more than once. Natural vegetation was the most affected, primarily due to human-driven ignition during the dry season. A noticeable trend of later peaks in fire activity, concentrated towards the end of the dry season, along with an increase in patch size over time, characterized a clear shift in the Cerrado fire regime. Recently, the MATOPIBA region and the northern biome exhibited significant fire clusters, with burned areas rising alongside farming expansion. The ecoregion-based analysis identified fire hotspots, with the "Bananal" ecoregion, the largest wetland area in the biome, exhibiting increased fire recurrence and larger patch size over time.ConclusionsOur four-decade analysis of fire dynamics in the Cerrado revealed human-induced changes in the fire regime, originally shifting from July to September to a new fire season from August to October. This shift poses several environmental threats given their overlap with the driest months of the year. This study improved our understanding of changes in fire patterns and their impacts on each ecoregion and land use. Wetlands experienced the highest relative burned area, highlighting their ecological importance and increased vulnerability. In the southern Cerrado, where farming is established and natural vegetation more fragmented, fire events tend to decrease; while in the north, with recent farming expansion, fire susceptibility rises. Conservation-oriented strategies, like the Brazilian Integrated Fire Management (MIF), are crucial for mitigating impacts while enhancing the Cerrado’s resilience to climate change.