Drop In Income Research Articles

Tax Revenues of Regional Budgets Under Sanctions Pressure

The first half of 2022 was marked by a radical change in the geopolitical situation and an increase in sanctions pressure on the domestic economy. The breakdown of the established model of economic relations, the rupture of economic chains had a pronounced effect on the dynamics of industrial production. At the same time, the tax revenues of the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation have increased significantly and have not yet responded to the reduction in industrial production. Of the regions with a significant share of tax revenues from industry in the structure of consolidated budget revenues, only six had a reduction in income tax receipts, and this took place both against the background of a reduction in industrial production indices and against the background of their growth. According to the results of the first half of the year, there is no connection between the dynamics of industrial production and the receipts of corporate income tax and personal income tax to the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation. In a number of regions, wholesale and retail trade plays a significant role in maintaining the receipts of these taxes to the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the pronounced lag in the growth of personal income tax receipts from the rate of inflation, which occurs with an increase in average accrued wages and a drop in real incomes of the population, may indicate the accumulation of hidden employment problems in a number of regions.

SOS incomes: simulated effects of COVID-19 and emergency benefits on individual and household income distribution in Italy.

Using a static microsimulation model based on a link between survey and administrative data, this article investigates the effects of the pandemic on income distribution in Italy in 2020. The analysis focuses on both individuals and households by simulating through nowcasting techniques changes in labour income and in equivalized income, respectively. For both units of observations, we compare changes before and after social policy interventions, that is, automatic stabilizers and benefits introduced by the government to address the effects of the COVID-19 emergency. We find that the pandemic has led to a relatively greater drop in labour income for those lying in the poorest quantiles, which, however, benefited more from the income support benefits. As a result, compared with the ‘No-COVID scenario’, income poverty and inequality indices grow considerably when these benefits are not considered, whereas the poverty increase greatly narrows and inequality slightly decreases once social policy interventions are taken into account. This evidence signals the crucial role played by cash social transfers to contrast with the most serious economic consequences of the pandemic.

Studying corporate liquidity and regulatory responses for economic recovery in COVID-19 crises

Many enterprises across the European Union (EU) have been hampered by the massive spread of COVID-19. It has severely impacted revenues and financial flows, potentially leading to an increase in corporate insolvency. This study investigates the influence of this new coronavirus on the solvency status of businesses in EU Member States. Several stress scenarios were constructed for non-financial listed enterprises. The results reveal a gradual surge in the possibility of default, a rise in loan repayment, and coverage being refused. According to our findings, the solvency profiles of all firms are deteriorating. Industries, such as mining, mass production, and retail, are the most susceptible to a drop in sales income and market capitalization. Before COVID-19, previous research had looked at policy options for maintaining solvency. Our data imply that a tax delay is adequate if there is a slight deterioration in the economic outlook. There should be hybrid assistance through loans and equity for even a slight deterioration in the state of an economy. This research will benefit policymakers, corporate executives, and creditors.

LIFE SATISFACTION CHANGES AND ADAPTATION IN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: EVIDENCE FROM SINGAPORE

We provide novel evidence on how COVID-19 affected overall life satisfaction using a monthly longitudinal survey of middle-aged and older Singaporeans. We study how the subjective well-being of individuals evolves over the course of 18 months including the outbreak of the pandemic, the implementation of the lockdown and the spike of cases due to the delta variant in a country where COVID-19 is controlled in a sustained manner. Using an event-study design framework, we find large declines in overall life satisfaction in the lead-up to and following the lockdown. Fifteen months after the outbreak of the pandemic, and 13 months out from the end of lockdown, individuals have nearly, though not fully, adapted to living with the virus. We find greater negative well-being impacts of COVID-19 among individuals who report a drop in household income during the COVID-19 outbreak compared to those who do not report any income loss. However, we find little evidence of heterogeneity in the dynamics of the recovery in well-being by individuals’ underlying health status, marital status and education. On personality types, people who are high in neuroticism experience larger dips in well-being during the lockdown, and adapt to living with COVID-19 at a slower rate.

Impact of COVID 19 on the Women Vendors of Ima Market, Manipur

The Ima Market in Manipur is an all-women market which is also regarded as the largest in Asia. Men are not permitted to sell, do business or own a store of their own, but they can buy anything they wish, and they are often allowed to work as labourers for transporting heavy goods. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, and spread around the world, causing a global pandemic. Lockdowns were enforced in many parts of the world, and their effects were felt by everyone, including the women vendors of Ima Market. They also play an important part in the state's economy. However, this specific market was closed for ten months. As a result, it is vital to investigate the impact of its closure due to the lockdown including their socioeconomic situation and the resulting financial instability. The study delves into the difficulties faced by the women sellers of Ima market during the lockdown. It also analyses the impact of their income drop, the hardships faced by their families along with the alternative ways they opted for in order to earn their livelihood. In addition to this, the paper also studies the socio-economic impact of the lockdown including the availability of food during the closure of the market.

The impact of income on mental health

The impact of income on mental health

Understanding the impact of COVID-19 on the informal sector workers in Bangladesh.

The COVID-19 pandemic put dents on every sector of the affected countries, and the informal sector was no exception. This study is based on the quantitative analyses of the primary data of 1,867 informal workers of Bangladesh to shed light on the impact of the pandemic-induced economic crisis on this working class. The survey was conducted between 8 July and 13 August 2020 across the eight administrative divisions of the country. Analysis points out that about ninety percent of these workers faced an income and food expenditure drop during the lockdown. The effect was higher in males, particularly among the urban-centric and educated males engaged in services and sales. The findings suggest that policy support is needed for the informal workers to face such a crisis.

The effect of involuntary retirement on healthcare use.

We analyze the causal effect of involuntary retirement on detailed indicators of healthcare use and mortality. We leverage a pension reform in Hungary which forced public sector workers above the statutory retirement age to full time retirement. Using rich administrative data, we find that on the 3-year horizon, involuntary retirement decreases the number of primary care doctor visits, the use of systemic antiinfectives and respiratory drugs, and the non-zero spending on antiinfectives, the drugs of the alimentary tract and metabolism and of the cardiovascular system. The impact on the latter two drug categories is driven by the drop in income due to involuntary retirement. We conclude that there is little evidence for health deteriorating effects of involuntary retirement and discuss the possible mechanisms behind our results.

The Effect of Crisis Management and Implementation of Health Protocols During the Covid-19 Pandemic On Repurchase Intention With Consumer Safety As Mediation

The surge of COVID-19 cases has impacted nearly every business sector in DKI Jakarta, including the fast-food restaurant industry, which has suffered a major drop in income. Consumers are becoming selective in choosing fast-food restaurants to visit to avoid the risk of COVID-19 transmission, yet also demand high-quality food with affordable prices and urges the restaurant to implement crisis management and health protocols to maintain consumer safety so that consumers have an interest in revisiting during the pandemic. This study aims to explore the relationship between crisis management, consumer health, and safety protocols to consumer intention in dining in again during the COVID-19 pandemic. The test method used was purposive sampling using PLS-SEM. There were 238 respondents who experienced dine-in at least twice at fast-food restaurants in the international brand franchise category in super-regional and regional malls in Jakarta during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of this study indicate that crisis management and health protocols have a positive effect on consumer safety and health protocols have a positive effect on repurchase intention, while crisis management has a negative effect. Crisis management and health protocols on repurchase intention mediated by consumer safety also have a negative effect. It is hoped that the research that has been carried out can provide benefits for entrepreneurs in the food and beverages sector, especially fast-food restaurants, with the right strategies in implementing crisis management and health protocols in an effort to maintain consumer safety when dining in during a pandemic similar to COVID-19.

After the Flood: Migration and Remittances as Coping Strategies of Rural Bangladeshi Households

Using georeferenced data to map the dramatic flood that hit Bangladesh in August–September 2014, we evaluate how rural households coped with this natural shock. Employing survey data on panel households for the period before and after the shock, we estimate a difference-in-difference model with fixed effects of the impact of flooding on income, expenditure, nutrition, and migration outcomes along the wealth distribution. Our results show that the most affected households experienced significant drops in income and expenditure and an increase in the probability of migrating as a coping strategy to compensate for this loss. Internal migration increased by 7 percentage points for low-wealth households, while international migration increased by 3 percentage points for high-wealth households. Remittances received by poorer households from established international migrants represented significant monetary support after the shock, amounting to approximately 40% of the decline in income from self-employment in farm activities and half the decline in food expenditure.

Experimental studies on the unsteady atomization characteristics of a swirl injector

This paper studies the spray and dynamic respond characteristics of a swirl injector under the different unsteady experimental conditions. The flow pulsation and injector geometric parameters, such as the pulsation frequency and swirl chamber length, on the atomization features like average liquid sheet thickness and spray angle have been comprehensively measured. It is indicated that the whole pulsation range could be divided into different parts based on the pulsation frequencies of incoming flow. Experimental results reveal that the liquid sheet thickness and Sauter Mean Diameter (SMD) amplitude would decrease in the square and bimodal regions and then remain unchanged in the triangular region. Both of them would increase with the tangential channel diameter and swirl chamber length while the steady incoming pressure drop shows an opposite impact on them. Besides, the spray performance of swirl injector could be improved by rising the swirl chamber diameter.

Determinants of Migration: Cotton Strikes and Income Shocks in Mali

How do transitory income shocks affect household migration decisions in low-income countries? We study how income losses from a cotton strike affecting Malian districts differentially changed agricultural household migration choices. The short duration and geographic specificity of the strike allows us to cleanly identify the long-run impact of a sudden change in household income on migration choices. We show that a drop in income precipitated by the strike reduced household migration rates by approximately 32% over a six-year period. A randomized inference placebo test corroborates the validity of our result. We demonstrate that not having cash on hand is a binding constraint to labor migration for poor populations.

Unintended socio-economic and health consequences of COVID-19 among slum dwellers in Kampala, Uganda

BackgroundTo reduce the spread of COVID-19, several countries in Africa instituted countrywide lockdowns and other public health measures. Whereas lockdowns contributed to the control of the pandemic, there were concerns about the unintended consequences of these measures especially in the most vulnerable populations. We assessed unintended socio-economic and health consequences due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the mitigation measures among slum dwellers in Kampala to inform the on-going and future pandemic response strategies.MethodsThis was a mixed methods cross-sectional study conducted in Bwaise I and Bwaise III slums of Kawempe division, Kampala Uganda from October to December 2020. We used systematic sampling to randomly select 425 household heads for the face-to-face quantitative interviews. We also conducted six focus group discussions (FGDs) with slum dwellers and used photovoice among eight Community Health Workers (CHWs) to document unintended socio-economic and health consequences. Quantitative data were imported into STATA version 14.0 for analysis, while qualitative data were analysed thematically using NVivo version 12. Modified Poisson regression analysis was conducted to establish factors associated with impact on access to food.ResultsMost respondents reported limited access to food (71.1%; 302/425); disruption in education (77.1%; 270/350); drop in daily income and wages (86.1%; 329/382) and loss of employment (63.1; 125/198). Twenty five percent of the respondents (25.4%; 86/338) reported domestic violence as one of the challenges. Seven themes emerged from the qualitative findings on the impact of COVID-19 including: limited access to food; negative impact on children’s rights (child labour and teenage pregnancies) and education; poor housing and lack of accommodation; negative social behaviours; negative impact on family and child care; reduced income and employment; and negative impact on health and access to health care services.ConclusionThe slum dwellers of Bwaise I and Bwaise III experienced several negative socio-economic and health consequences of COVID-19 and its prevention measures that severely affected their wellbeing. Children experienced severe consequences such as child labour and teenage pregnancies among the girls. Response activities should be contextualised to different settings and protocols to protect the vulnerable groups in the community such as children and women should be developed and mainstreamed in response activities.

The concept and content of social protection and social security for the population in modern Ukraine

Introduction. Currently, Ukraine is going through a difficult period of structural, economic and political reorientation, characterized by the interweaving of deep crises of a political, economic and social nature, caused, among other things, by the war. Ukrainian society, since independence, was formed and functioned under the conditions of an administrative-command system, today it aspires to a state and society of a higher type, based on universal values and ideas, in which human rights and their protection are the only real indicator of the state's civilization. In recent years, the social security of citizens has become increasingly important in Ukraine, because in the new socio-political and economic conditions there is an urgent need for adequate financial security. However, on this path, only such a result as the growth of crisis phenomena in various spheres of life and the transformation of every person into their hostage is obvious. When announcing a new course of social development, a course for democratization, the strategy and tactics of reforms, as well as their possible consequences, were not really assessed and predicted. In the meantime, the most significant of them - the drop in incomes of the population and the social stratification of society - have already made themselves known. Goal. The purpose of the article is to analyze approaches to defining the concepts of social protection and social security in science and their impact on solving the problems of vulnerable population groups. Method. The theoretical and methodological basis of the article are the scientific works of Ukrainian and foreign authors who researched the concepts of social protection and social security, as well as the basic provisions of the economy, state administration, social work and social security law. The analysis of the influence of the system of social protection and social security on the solution of current problems in society was carried out by the methods of systemic and structural-functional analysis (theoretical and methodological generalizations). The results. It was found that there is no permanent interpretation of the concepts of social protection and social security, their relationship and unity among scientists in approaches to solving this problem. It was determined that the social protection system is transformed depending on the economic state of the society, but thanks to a comprehensive approach, it will function both in conditions of crisis, radical breakdown of the old economic system, and in conditions of stabilization. The principles on which the system of social protection in Ukraine should be based are formulated.

When It Rains It Drains: Psychological Distress and Household Net Worth

This paper establishes a sizeable negative effect of mental health on individuals' net worth. In a representative panel of U.S. households, we find that high psychological distress leads to a 35% increase in the baseline risk of entering into deficit net worth, where levels of debt outstrip the value of assets. Survival analyses further show that psychological distress accelerates the entry into and prolongs the stay in deficit net worth states, as well as increasing the probability of re-entry into deficit. We present evidence that psychologically distressed individuals entering deficit net worth experience a significant drop in income and liquid assets, while disproportionally increasing unsecured debt levels. The effects are not limited to those of low socioeconomic status (SES), although for individuals with high psychological distress in the low SES group, the effects are greater. Our findings highlight the significant longer-term implications of mental health on wealth accumulation.

Inclusive economic growth through employment and income: Experience of the Russian Federation

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all areas of society. Among the most tangible consequences of the “coronacrisis” in Russia, one can single out a decrease in the number of employed people and a drop in incomes of the population in 2020. The high speed of the spread of the coronavirus has determined the need for the introduction of prompt measures to combat COVID-19, as well as supportive measures for both the population and businesses. Despite the scale and breadth of the measures of state support implemented in 2020, the question of methods for assessing their effectiveness is acute. The purpose of the study is to assess the inclusiveness of economic growth in the Russian Federation in the context of COVID-19 in the areas of state support for employment and income of the population. The following hypotheses are being tested: 1) the inclusiveness of economic growth in terms of employment and income of the population has decreased in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic; 2) measures of state support for employment and incomes of the population made it possible to mitigate the drop in the value of the inclusiveness of economic growth. A new approach to analyze the effectiveness of public policy measures is suggested, on the basis of the author's dynamic approach to assessing the inclusiveness of economic growth. The proposed methodological approach is being tested for the case of analysis of the effect of state support measures in Russia in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment and incomes of the population. The increase in state welfare funding in 2020 compared to the modeled value made it possible to reduce the level of decline in the inclusiveness of economic growth (by 0.16 points), as a result of which this indicator in the areas of employment and income of the population decreased in 2020 by only 0.11 points. The results indicate relative effectiveness of the support measures adopted by the government that showed in mitigating the pandemic-induced fall in the inclusiveness of economic growth in 2020. The hypotheses under study were confirmed. The practical significance of this study lies in the proposal of a new dynamic approach to assessing the inclusiveness of economic growth, which can be used as a tool for assessing the effectiveness of the state policy pursued both at the federal and regional levels.

ТРАНСФОРМАЦІЯ СТРУКТУРИ ЕКОНОМІКИ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ВІЙНИ

This study examines as a war, that undermined the economic security of the country, at the same time is deforming the structure of the national economy. The purpose of the article is to study the factors of structural deformation of the economy during the war; to analyze export specialization and the structure of the national economy; to consider the prospects for the development of long production chains as a prerequisite for structural progress. The factors of this deformation have been summarized, namely, the people death, their deportation by the aggressor; complete or partial shutdown of most enterprises; huge losses of key production factors (physical capital, labor, land); disruption of product supply and sales chains; limiting the availability of necessary production resources; loss of jobs and drop in income; market imbalance; destabilization of foreign trade. The composition of the export basket has been analyzed as a reflection of the national economy structure; and the dominance of raw materials and products with a low degree of processing in the export have been shown. Tendencies to narrowing of the variety of industrial activity types and products assortment have been revealed, which indicates the simplification of the national economy and the weakness of its innovative potential. The results of econometric modeling show that the density of inter-industry connections in the economics of the country is low, and the development of value chains is insufficient. The need to improve the structure of the economy through the creation of long production chains (which should combine the agricultural sector with the processing and service sectors) in order to increase the productivity and the growth rates of the economy has been substantiated.

IMPROVEMENT OF THE FISCAL POLICY OF UKRAINE UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF THE FORMATION OF A DIGITAL ECONOMY

IMPROVEMENT OF THE FISCAL POLICY OF UKRAINE UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF THE FORMATION OF A DIGITAL ECONOMY

Solomon Islands

Solomon Islands Joseph Daniel Foukona (bio) As in the previous year, Solomon Islands politics in 2021 continued to be fundamentally colored by the People's Republic of China (PRC)'s direct diplomatic presence in the country since September 2019 and the global upheaval caused by the covid-19 pandemic. The PRC is deliberately expanding its reach across the Pacific as it seeks to attain influence over what has long been a region dominated by other global powers. The deleterious effects of the covid-19 pandemic on economies across the globe have also caused some drawing back by countries hitherto deeply involved in the Pacific. These factors have been central to the policy of the ruling Democratic Coalition Government for Advancement (dcga) and the responses of domestic political actors, which have generated political divisions and mistrust at the national and subnational levels. The government's 2021 budget focus on funding key redirection policy priorities has prompted a Honiara-centric approach. Together, these policies, as well as infrastructure projects, have created a setting in which policy and political dynamics have become highly fragmented, with the dominance of the capital enforced by the declaration of a nationwide state of public emergency. This declaration was justified by the economic crisis brought about by the effects of covid-19 on Solomon Islands. The Central Bank of Solomon Islands' monthly economic bulletins for January and February indicated a decrease in the country's production index, which was due to the weak performance of all major commodities. The bank estimated that the domestic economy would "grow by 0.4 percent in 2021, down from the initially projected growth of 1.5 percent" (cbsi 2021b). Such change in the real gdp resulted from the "prolonged impact of covid-19 pandemic, border restrictions and weaker-than-expected performances across broad sectors of the economy" (cbsi 2021b). To manage the country's dire economic situation, the dcga introduced a new budget strategy in 2021 with the theme "Towards a Path to Economic Recovery: Advancing Growth and Services Delivery Through Better Partnerships" (Solomon Star 2021a). These "partnerships" included the hitherto less visible PRC. In order to implement the budget theme, the government used what officials called its "redirection policy," which they claimed aimed both to protect Solomon Islanders "from the spread of the covid 19 pandemic and to keep the domestic economy afloat and to accelerate recovery" (Solomon Star 2021a). The government faced a big income deficit in 2021 due mostly to the [End Page 490] effects of the pandemic. As a result of the drop in domestic income from taxes and weak economic production, the minister of finance and treasury stated in his 2021 budget speech that the new budget planned for an overall government deficit of si$329 million (us$41.1 million). This deficit meant that the overall revenue expected by the government, an estimated si$3.710 billion (us$460 million), would total only si$3.009 billion (us$380 million) of domestic government revenue. The remaining balance would have to be sourced domestically and from traditional multilateral and bilateral partners (Kuma 2021). "Budget Support Revenue from Donor partners is $259 million, $90 million support from the People's Republic of China, $12 million for the Economic Stimulus Package, and $341 million in development financing sourced from bilateral and development partners. The Total Development Budget for 2021 is $938 million of which $848 million is sig [Solomon Islands Government] funded and the remaining $90 million is funded by the Peoples Republic of China [sic] support towards constituency development projects" (sig 2021a, 3–4). It is here that China's key role in Solomon Islands' ruling party's politics becomes clear. Without detailing China's direct contribution to the budget, the government addressed this problem by offering both a new deficit budget and a slogan to justify this deficit. Because the government did not admit to collecting considerable funds directly from China, the public had no way of knowing how the redirection policy and its slogan worked. Thus, there was considerable confusion among the public. The Solomon Star reported that as "the Government prepares to bring down its 2021 $4 billion-plus budget, a huge 'mismatch' appears to...

«Зомби-страны» - угроза мировой финансовой системе?

The worldwide pandemic of coronavirus infection has caused a set of problems, which can be divided into two large groups. The first group is problems in world health, related to the shock of most national systems caused by the number of cases, deaths, shortages of medicines and vaccines. The second group is problems in the economy due to employment, shortages of raw materials and components. The pandemic led to a drop in people's income, as well as several problems in the activities of economic entities - businesses and households. Problems occurred in small and medium-sized enterprises as well as in large companies and multinational corporations. The biggest victims of the pandemic were the airline company Boeing, the travel company Carmival, Delta Air Lines, and the oil and gas company ExxonMobil. This caused the value of their debt financial instruments to fall, increased the cost of borrowing for these companies, and could eventually lead to their bankruptcy. The bankruptcy of several large multinational corporations could have caused irreparable damage to the world economy and so most governments provided financing to large economic entities by giving concessional loans and borrowings. Also, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a program of buyback of financial assets in global financial markets. At the same time, the financial situation in the countries, which provide such assistance to economic entities, has also deteriorated. First, it wass expressed in growth of national debt. According to the IMF, the global public debt tripled over a 20-year period, rising from $20 trillion in the 2000s to a record $69.3 trillion by 2020. The ratio of global debt to global GDP was 82%. Consequently, to pay for this public debt, it is necessary to give more than half of global GDP for the year. And for several advanced economies, this figure already exceeds the size of annual GDP. So, the likelihood of these countries paying their debts in the future has been significantly reduced. In fact, there is the emergence of “zombie” countries, which even in the distant future will not be able to repay their obligations but will continue to exist as borrowers in the financial market. Most of these countries have the highest credit ratings. At the same time rating agencies overlook the actual inability of the governments of these countries to repay the debts incurred at some point in the future. High credit ratings and the existing investment strategy of big bond purchasers make it possible for them to continue their successful existence due to continuing borrowings in the financial market. However, over a sufficiently long period of time this situation could lead to a catastrophic financial collapse of mutual defaults, defaults, and bankruptcies especially since the assets of zombie countries are actively bought by investors and are seen as a highly reliable liquid asset. In this regard, it is relevant to assess the overall situation of the public debt of borrowing countries, classifying them into groups and describing the properties of each group.