Purpose This study aims to investigate the linear and threshold effects of external debt on economic growth in eleven Latin American countries between 1990 and 2023. Design/methodology/approach The generalized method of moments (GMM) is used to estimate the linear effect, given its efficiency in addressing endogeneity, serial autocorrelation and heterogeneity. Threshold regression for panel data (TRP) is also used to examine potential nonlinear relationships. Findings The results yielded three main findings. First, external debt has a significant and negative impact on economic growth. Second, no statistically significant external debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) threshold was identified, demonstrating that the negative effect of debt persists regardless of its level. Third, an investment threshold was determined that mitigates this negative effect; when gross fixed capital formation exceeds 19.73% of GDP, the adverse impact of debt ceases to be significant, suggesting that investment acts as a debt-absorbing mechanism. Originality/value The research combines complementary econometric approaches to analyze in depth the effects of external debt in a relatively unexplored region like Latin America. Furthermore, it incorporates robustness tests that divide the sample according to the identified investment threshold, providing key empirical evidence for the design of public policies aimed at improving the channeling and efficiency of public borrowing.

Nexus of innovation, gross domestic product, CO2, and renewable energy in China

Renewable energy for domestic hot water production: Advances, challenges, and future directions - A systematic review

An impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of rotavirus vaccine introduction in Egypt.

We investigate how financial intermediation by rural banks (BPRs), commercial banks, and fintech P2P lending influences per-capita household consumption, MSME production, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) across Indonesia’s 34 provinces during 2022–2024 (N = 102). Using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) via SmartPLS with bootstrapped inference, we estimate a system of simultaneous equations that captures both direct and indirect (mediated) pathways from each intermediation channel to regional output. Results show that BPR intermediation (X₁) and commercial-bank intermediation (X₂) significantly and positively affect MSME production (H4 and H5 supported; p < 0.05), whereas fintech P2P lending (X₃) does not (H6 rejected; p = 0.161). Fintech P2P lending positively influences per-capita consumption (H3 supported at the 90% level; p ≈ 0.078), while BPR and commercial-bank intermediation have no significant effect (H1 and H2 rejected). MSME production strongly enhances GRDP (H7 supported; p < 0.01), and consumption is positively associated with GRDP at the 90% level (H8 supported; p ≈ 0.085). Direct paths from intermediation to GRDP (H9–H11) are not significant, supporting a mediated mechanism: BPRs and commercial banks primarily operate through MSME production, while fintech channels influence GRDP via consumption. Model fit is acceptable (SRMR = 0.091), although some covariance-fit indices are weak (discussed in the manuscript), so inference relies on bootstrapped path estimates and mediation diagnostics. Policy implications suggest regulators should reinforce BPR and commercial-bank support for MSME financing, while guiding fintech to expand safe consumer access that enhances household purchasing power without introducing systemic risks.

This study provided the relationship between healthcare financing and economic performance from 1986-2023 in Nigeria. Specifically, the study focused on the role of government capital and recurrent expenditure in health on gross domestic product. This study was based on two theoretical concepts, namely, the Human Capital Theory and the Keynesian Theory of Public Expenditure. The research design adopted ex post facto design as it is only applicable in a historical form of research where the researcher is not able to manipulate the variables. Data that were used in this study were obtained from statistical bulletins of Central Bank of Nigeria and World Bank. The data used for the research are secondary time series data. The descriptive method, unit root, Johansen co-integration and parsimonious ECM techniques were used for this study at 5% level of significance. The unit root result indicated that all the variables were stationary at first difference and require the Johansen co-integration that validate the presence of long run form among the variables. The parsimonious ECM result revealed that that Government recurrent spending in health have a statistically insignificant and negative effect on gross domestic product while government capital spending in health have positive and statistical significance influence on gross domestic product. The study concluded that government capital expenditure in health is the significant aspect of healthcare financing that, promotes the gross domestic product of Nigeria. The study recommended the Federal government of Nigeria to implement performance-based budgeting in the healthcare sector, conduct health workforce audit to reduce wastage.

The study aims to analyze the relationship between Türkiye's financial development index and BIST 100 prices, gross domestic product, and trading volume from 1988 to 2022. The financial development index by the IMF considers the financial markets and institutions of countries in terms of efficiency, depth and accessibility. Many studies investigate the relationship between financial development, economic growth, and the stock market. However, when the literature is examined, it is found that the financial development index prepared by the IMF is not used intensively, and the stock market trading volume variable is discussed in limited studies. For this reason, in this study, the effect of the financial development index reported by the IMF on other variables and the effect of transaction volume, which is considered a very important variable in the capital market, on financial development were tested. The study used the ARDL bounds test approach to investigate cointegration between variables. According to the results of the analysis, gross domestic product and trading volume have a positive and statistically significant effect on the financial development index. A negative but statistically insignificant relationship was found between the BIST 100 opening price and the financial development index. Within the scope of the results obtained, necessary measures and precautions should be taken in the capital market.

ABSTRACT The shrinking of cities has become a widespread global phenomenon. The accurate identification of the dynamics of shrinking cities, as well as quantification of the degree of shrinkage, is important for promoting sustainable urban development and formulating related policies. This study proposes an innovative integrated framework for shrinking-city identification that comprises the initial detection of potential urban shrinkage through the analysis of nighttime-light data, followed by a refined screening process using demographic and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) metrics. Furthermore, we quantified the degree and types of shrinkage in these cities. Between 2000 and 2022, we identified 77 shrinking cities in China, representing 11.44% of the studied urban entities. These cities were dispersed across diverse economic systems, with notable concentrations in the northeastern and central economic regions. Most analyzed cities exhibited a low shrinking intensity, with shrinkage ratios predominantly falling within two ranges: 30–45% and over 60%. We classified shrinking cities into primary categories by integrating their demographic, economic, and geospatial metrics. Shrinking urban agglomerations were classified into three primary categories: “Continuous Shrinkage,” “Episodic Shrinkage,” and “Temporary Shrinkage.” Our findings support a transition from conventional growth-centric paradigms toward adaptive governance frameworks that emphasize resilience and structural readjustment.

Micro, small, and medium enterprises are an economic sector that contributes significantly to gross domestic product and employment. However, this sector often faces classic challenges or problems such as market access, limited capital, low managerial capabilities, and minimal product innovation. This article aims to examine the role of business incubation and business diversification as determining factors in the development of cracker business centers. This research was conducted using a qualitative approach, and the results show that business incubation plays a role in improving managerial capacity, innovation, networking, and access to financing for MSMEs. Furthermore, business diversification is an adaptive strategy that can increase business resilience to market fluctuations. Therefore, this article emphasizes the importance of integrating both in sustainable development.

ABSTRACT While the negative health consequences of air pollution exposure are well documented, its effects on economic activities remain less understood. Existing empirical studies often focus on the impacts of air pollution on production-related economic indicators, such as labor productivity and innovation, neglecting its effect on consumption-related activities associated with pollution avoidance behaviors. Given the increasing availability of remotely sensed nighttime light data that captures both production and consumption dynamics, in this study, we examine the causal impact of air pollution on nighttime light brightness using a two-stage least squares model on an 18-year panel dataset (2002–2019) of 2098 administrative units in China. Our findings reveal that, on average, a 1% increase in particulate matter concentrations leads to a 0.65% decline in nighttime light brightness. This estimate can be translated into a 0.29% decrease in gross domestic product attributable to a 1% rise in particulate matter levels, given a reference light elasticity of gross domestic product of 0.45. Moreover, heterogeneity tests confirm spatial-temporal variations in the estimates, which may be attributed to differences in awareness of air pollution harms, pollution exposure levels, and recreational facilities or services. The contribution of this study is twofold. First, it uncovers the hidden economic co-benefits of air quality improvement. Second, it underscores the importance of remote sensing techniques in advancing a balanced environment–economy relationship.

ABSTRACT The current standard-of-care prophylaxis for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is primarily administered to high-risk infant populations. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine the economically justifiable price of nirsevimab compared with the standard of care in preventing medically attended RSV-associated lower respiratory tract infections from all infants and palivizumab-eligible children <2 years in South Korea. A month-age-specific static decision-tree model was used from a societal perspective, with a primary time horizon of one RSV season and an extended time horizon of three years. The model compared nirsevimab with standard of care prevention, which included palivizumab for eligible infants and children under two during the RSV season. The outcome measure was an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) to suggest economically justifiable prices. The maximum economically justifiable price of nirsevimab was $527 at a 1 gross domestic product (GDP) per capita willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold and $607 at a 1.5 GDP per capita WTP threshold per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gain. The ICER was $33,071 per QALY at the price of $527 and $49,769 per QALY at $607 for the total population. Sensitivity analyses identified RSV epidemiology, nirsevimab effectiveness, and price as the key drivers of ICER variations. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that nirsevimab was cost-effective at $527 in 55% of the simulations at the 1 GDP threshold and 54% at the 1.5 GDP threshold. Nirsevimab is estimated to be a cost-effective intervention for preventing RSV-associated lower respiratory tract infections within a universal immunization program for all infants and palivizumab-eligible children <2 years in South Korea.

ABSTRACT This research shows that the economic impact of the hydrogeological disasters critically depends on the quality of local institutions. Using Italian Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) 3 data, we identify significant divergences across regions: after a disaster, high-quality institutions promote economic recovery, even stimulating gross domestic product (GDP) growth beyond pre-disaster levels. In contrast, regions with weak institutions experience structural economic decline. This divergence pertains to economic indicators exclusively. Socially, regardless of institutional quality, affected regions experience a deterioration in poverty levels, inequality and human development. These findings suggest that post-disaster policies prioritise economic over the mitigation of social vulnerability.

Rice is the most important staple after wheat, provides daily calories for most of the country's people, and plays a significant role in food security and nutrition. Rice also contains vitamins and minerals, and its nutrients are more valuable than wheat's. Afghanistan has been considered one of the world's most food-insecure countries due to conflicts, poverty, seasonal factors, drought, and limited access to, availability of, and utilization of staple foods, especially in rural areas. The role of rice in Afghanistan's food security has not been adequately addressed in previous studies and warrants further investigation. This review aims to describe the role of rice in Afghanistan's food security, focusing on production. In the narrative literature review, the relevant keywords for the topic were investigated in popular databases over the last two decades and screened for relevant manuscripts. The resulting information was then organized into different sections of the manuscript. Domestic rice production fulfilled 58.13% of the country's demand in 2023. The average yield of rice in 2023 was 3.11 metric tons per hectare, up 0.7%, and rice-cultivated land increased by 0.7%. Rice cultivated on 129×103 hectares in 2023 in 16 provinces not only boosted the domestic market but also employed local people. Thus, Afghanistan's land, farmers, and local rice varieties have the potential to increase rice production and provide a strategic staple food for people. Providing all this information is helpful to researchers, advisors to rice farmers, and policymakers, enabling them to develop a favorable plan for a self-sufficient Afghanistan in rice production to produce enough high-quality rice in the future and improve food security.

ABSTRACT As local vaccine manufacturing becomes a strategic goal for future pandemic preparedness, investigating public trust in domestic vaccine production is essential for ensuring equitable uptake and long-term success. A cross-sectional web-based survey was conducted to assess confidence in the local scientific community, manufacturers, regulatory authorities, and locally-produced mRNA vaccines. A vaccine confidence index (VCI) captured attitudes toward mRNA vaccine safety, efficacy, and acceptability. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, confidence in the competency of the local scientific community (aOR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.14–2.10, p < .01), local vaccine manufacturers’ ability to produce high-quality vaccines (aOR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.46–2.59, p < .001), and trust in the quality of locally-produced vaccine products (aOR = 2.39, 95% CI: 1.79–3.20, p < .001) were significantly associated with greater confidence. Confidence in regulatory authorities also played a key role; participants who believed regulators were competent (aOR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.44–2.63, p < .001) and trustworthy (aOR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.22–2.43, p < .01) were more likely to express confidence. Under VCI, perceiving mRNA vaccines as important for children (aOR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.09–2.43, p < .05), safe (AOR = 2.95, 95% CI: 1.84–4.72, p < .001), effective (aOR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.26–3.13, p < .01), and aligned with personal beliefs (aOR = 2.31, 95% CI: 1.43–3.75, p < .01) significantly increased confidence. Ethnicity was the strongest demographic predictor, with Malays showing significantly higher confidence (aOR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.15–3.07) than other groups. Findings underscore the need for transparent, evidence-based, and culturally tailored strategies to build trust and advance Malaysia’s vaccine self-reliance goals.

The relevance of this article is determined by the necessity of developing goose breeding in the agricultural sector of Kazakhstan and ensuring the population with high-quality meat products. In this context, to reduce dependence on imports and increase the competitiveness of domestic products, the prompt improvement of the genetic base of poultry farming acquires significant importance. The aim of the work is to conduct a comparative analysis of the dynamics of live weight gain of meat-type goslings (linda, chinese white wanxi, and hungarian heavy) up to 90 days of age, determine their productive potential, and provide scientifically grounded recommendations for selecting the most effective breed under the climatic and economic conditions of Kazakhstan. The study was carried out at the only breeding reproducer for breeding geese in the Republic of Kazakhstan, located in the West Kazakhstan region. The results showed that Linda goslings demonstrated the highest live weight gain and intensity of average daily growth during the rearing period from 1 to 63 days. By the total absolute gain up to 90 days, Linda geese surpassed the other breeds by 3.7% – 4.7%. Furthermore, due to the sharp deceleration of growth in all breeds, the economic feasibility of fattening goslings up to 63 days was justified. In conclusion, the research results recommend the Linda breed as the most effective solution for meat poultry farming in Kazakhstan, which contributes to the improvement of selective breeding work and the strengthening of the scientific and practical base of goose breeding in the country

This research aimed to measure the impact of trade openness and changes in the terms of trade on the growth of agricultural domestic product in Iraq for the period 1990-2020. The independent variables were represented by indicators (trade openness, agricultural exports, the rate of trade of agricultural crops, and the exchange rate). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) measures the relationship between variables, in addition to the PP test for the stability of the time series. After the estimated model passed the bounds test, the short-run and long-run functions were estimated. The results of the estimation in the short run showed the existence of a positive effect of both terms of trade and the exchange rate on the growth of agricultural domestic product. As for the rate of trade openness, its effect was negative, and the results did not prove significant for the agricultural export index. In the long term, it was significant. As for trade openness, its effect became positive due to the growth of exports in the long term. The results indicated that the terms of trade are not in the country’s favor, due to the small volume of agricultural exports.

This article analyzes the current situation of the automotive sector, with particular emphasis on the auto parts industry, in the State of Querétaro during 2025. It evaluates both its contribution to regional economic growth and the structural risks associated with a high level of sectoral dependence. The central objective is to critically examine the role this sector has played in employment generation, the increase in state gross domestic product, and Querétaro’s integration into global value chains, while also identifying the vulnerabilities derived from this development model in an increasingly uncertain international context. Using an analytical approach grounded in the literature on regional development, productive specialization, and global value chains, the study integrates recent statistical evidence, public policy analysis, and specialized academic contributions. The findings show that the auto parts sector has consolidated itself as one of the main economic engines of the state; however, this specialization has generated high exposure to external factors, such as restrictive trade policies in the United States, increasing competition from the Chinese automotive sector, and the limited integration of local suppliers into high value-added segments. The conclusions indicate that, although the automotive sector has driven economic growth in Querétaro, its predominance poses significant risks to long-term economic resilience. In this regard, the article underscores the need to diversify the state’s productive structure by strengthening other strategic sectors, in order to reduce vulnerability to external shocks and promote more balanced and sustainable regional development.

Purpose Social procurement is an innovative policy tool that integrates social values in public procurement, while leveraging the power of public procurement to address complex social problems. This study aims to examine the implementation of social procurement within the Ministry of Health through cross-sector collaboration among public, private and third-sector organizations. Specifically, the objectives were to analyze how the procurement process contributes to social value creation, identify the main enablers of collaboration and analyze the potential for optimizing social value–based procurement policies. Design/methodology/approach This research used a descriptive qualitative approach, using a case study design. The data collection used was a thematic analysis, conducted through semistructured interviews, focus group interviews and participatory observation, involving 16 stakeholders from government, businesses, community organizations and universities. Data collection focused on cross-sector collaboration through in-house procurement (Swakelola) type III and procurement through suppliers that meet the criteria of Domestic Products and Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) and Cooperatives. These mechanisms were evaluated for their potential to create social value. Findings The results show that collaboration between the Ministry of Health and nonprofit social organizations in the procurement of health services through in-house procurement type III produces direct social value. Meanwhile, collaboration between the Ministry of Health and private sector organizations in the procurement of affirmative action policies for MSEs, as well as cooperatives that produce domestic products, creates indirect social value. Leadership, regulations, procurement systems and trust emerged as the primary factors supporting the implementation of social procurement. The strategy for optimizing social procurement is driven by collaborative leadership, which creates collaborative procurement governance and generates social value. Research limitations/implications The limitations of this study include the limited scope of data exploration, which only involved key stakeholders from the public sector, namely, the Ministry of Health and several partners from the nonprofit, private and higher education sectors, including the National Public Procurement Agency. The perspectives of beneficiaries of social programs or services have not been considered, despite their significant role in evaluating the resulting social impact. Similarly, other secondary stakeholders, such as academics, civil society organizations and donor agencies, as well as other key stakeholders, including oversight bodies, have not been adequately accommodated. These limitations in stakeholder exploration and analysis need to be addressed in further research involving multiple stakeholders in assessing social procurement. Practical implications This study recommends that leaders actively encourage cross-sector collaboration in procurement and integrate social values into procurement strategies. Procurement regulations promote collaborative governance in the early stages. Meanwhile, third-sector leaders focus on building internal capabilities, engaging sector dialogue, establishing trust and pursuing social goals. Social implications This study discusses broadening cross-sector stakeholders’ understanding of the importance of governments in developing countries creating social value through the procurement of goods and services. Originality/value This study bridges the gap in social procurement literature by examining its application in Indonesia, providing insight into cross-sector collaboration dynamics and offering policy recommendations. The result contributes to both theory and practice by demonstrating the potential for social procurement to achieve sustainable development goals through leadership.

The widespread use of surfactants in domestic, industrial, and agricultural products has sparked growing concern due to their environmental persistence and potential for bioaccumulation in living organisms. The results showed that the biomass from the acidogenic reactor was able to eliminate this pollutant in terms of its COD (mg/L) by 42.24% and surfactant biodegradation at a concentration of 200 mg/L by 86.65% (experiment V), with a simultaneous desorption and biodegradation dynamic of 39.38 mg/day. At 300 mg/L (experiment VI), these values decreased to 36.6% and 55%, respectively. The methanogenic reactor fed with the effluent from this reactor showed a COD removal and LAS biodegradation efficiency of 83.17% and 13.85% with a bioaccumulation rate of 30.18 mg/day (experiment III). While at a LAS concentration of 300±0.05 mg/L (experiment VI), the LAS accumulation trend in the biomass of both reactors was 29.41 mg/d and 21.07 mg/d.

This study examines the effect of credit of commercial banks on international trade in Nigeria using annual time-series data from 1990 to 2023 from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. The estimation is done using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimation method to determine the contribution of bank credit, exchange rate, inflation, gross domestic product, and structural reforms to trade performance. The findings show that these effects of bank credit and GDP on international trade are positive and relatively strong, whereas the exchange rate has both positive but moderate impacts. On the other hand, inflation shows no substantial effect, showing how little short-term fluctuations in price levels matter in trade. The results emphasize the role of financial sector development, macroeconomic stability and structural reforms, most notably the banking sector consolidation in 2005, in facilitating long-term trade growth. The paper has provided relevant policy recommendations to improve trade finance, exchange rate stability as well as financial inclusion as instruments of bolstering Nigerian integration into the global economy.