Disturbance Agents Research Articles

352 years long fire history of a Siberian boreal forest and its primary driving factor

Fire is a major disturbance agent in the boreal forest, affecting the structure, dynamics and biogeochemical cycles in this biome. In the Asian section of boreal forest, the records of long-term fire history are few that limits our understanding of factors forcing regional fire dynamics. We presented an annually-resolved 352-year (1666–2017) fire chronology based on fire scars of Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.) and Siberian larch ( Larix sibirica Ledeb) from the Transbaikal area in the southeastern Siberia. Fire activity showed an increasing trend from 1720 to 1929 (R 2 = 0.80, P < 0.0001), and a significant decreasing trend from 1920 to 2010 (R 2 = 0.62, P < 0.001). We assessed the potential relationships between drought (as represented by the Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, and the Monthly Drought Code, MDC), ocean-atmosphere circulation and forest fire by Superposed epoch analyses, cross-wavelet analysis and Granger causality analysis. Increased fire activity was associated with stronger drought from previous winter to current summer of fire event years and positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) before and during major fire season (February and April to May), as revealed by superposed epoch analysis. Granger causality pointed to the significant role of drought in driving forest fires. Our findings provide insights into the climate drivers of forest fire activity and its prediction in the Transbaikal region. • Fire history was reconstructed by fire scars in tree rings from 1666 to 2017 in southeastern Siberia. • Fire activity showed a significant increasing trend from 1720 to 1929 and a significant decreasing trend from 1920 to 2009. • Drought was the major climate driver of the fire. • Increased fire activity was associated with the positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) before and during the major fire season (February, April and May).

Sub-fossil bark beetles as indicators of past disturbance events in temperate Picea abies mountain forests

Temperate mountain forests have experienced an increase in frequency and severity of natural disturbances (e.g., droughts, fires, windstorms and insect outbreaks) in recent decades due to climate and environmental change. Outbreaks of bark beetles have caused significant dieback of conifer forests in Central Europe and it is essential to model and predict the potential severity of future bark beetle outbreaks. However, to predict future bark beetle activity, historical baseline information is required to contextualize the magnitude of current and potential future outbreaks. A fossil beetle record from a forest hollow in the Tatra Mountains, Slovakia; one of the best-preserved national parks in Central Europe, was produced to identify insect outbreaks during the last millennia. Sub-fossil bark beetle remains were compared with parallel pollen and charcoal to assess whether peaks in conifer bark beetle remains correspond with indications of disturbance documented in historical or sedimentary fossil records. Three peaks in bark beetle remains were detected (1) post-2004, (2) AD 1140–1440, and (3) AD 930–1030. The abundance of species Pityogenes chalcographus and Pityophthorus pityographus in the two top samples can be linked directly to large bark beetle outbreaks in the High Tatra Mountains after 2004. P. chalcographus and P. pityographus are also the abundant species in the second peak (AD 1140–1440) while the third peak (AD 930–1030) consists of the species Polygraphus poligraphus. The most prominent conifer bark beetle in Central Europe, Ips typographus, was found to be present in most of the samples but always at very low numbers. It is plausible that P. chalcographus and P. pityographus fossils might be useful proxies for past conifer bark beetle outbreaks in Central Europe, as they occur together with fossils of I. typographus but appear to be well-preserved. A significant correlation was found between primary bark beetles and macroscopic charcoal densities in the sediment, highlighting the complex interactions between disturbance agents, bark beetles and fire, in this long-term regime of natural disturbances. Our 1400-year disturbance record shows how bark beetle outbreaks have been an important component of the regional natural disturbance regime for over a millennium and have intensified with increasing anthropogenic activity. Bark beetle outbreaks are likely one of the drivers promoting the future ecological stability of the temperate conifer ecosystem over decades to centuries.

A reference data framework for the application of satellite time series to monitor forest disturbance

Comprehensive and robust estimations of forest disturbance over time are lacking in many parts of the world. In recent years, Landsat satellite data has been used extensively to retrospectively map forest disturbance across several decades. Human interpretation of Landsat time series, in association with ancillary data, has emerged as an effective and affordable way to collect reference data, which is often used to calibrate and validate disturbance models. If the reference data is collected using a robust probability sampling protocol, estimates of disturbance can be derived directly from the reference dataset using simple calculations. In this paper, we present the results of a reference data project in New South Wales, Australia, undertaken to characterise three decades of canopy disturbance across 13 Mha of predominantly native eucalypt forests. Our results indicate that disturbance is a frequent occurrence, with 70% of the forest disturbed during the last 33 years and around 35% experiencing two or more disturbances. The most common disturbance agent was wildfire, however, most wildfire disturbance occurred in few years, with over 4 Mha burnt in 2019–20 alone. The second most common disturbance agent was drought, which together with fire, was strongly influenced by low rainfall in the preceding years. Forest recovery was often quite rapid following disturbance, particularly in the event of increased rainfall. In this study, we demonstrate the value of collecting information in a systematic and comprehensive framework, which can be used to address numerous monitoring questions regarding forest canopy disturbance.

Forest disturbances and the attribution derived from yearly Landsat time series over 1990\u20132020 in the Hengduan Mountains Region of Southwest China

BackgroundNatural forests in the Hengduan Mountains Region (HDMR) have pivotal ecological functions and provide diverse ecosystem services. Capturing long-term forest disturbance and drivers at a regional scale is crucial for sustainable forest management and biodiversity conservation.MethodsWe used 30-m resolution Landsat time series images and the LandTrendr algorithm on the Google Earth Engine cloud platform to map forest disturbances at an annual time scale between 1990 and 2020 and attributed causal agents of forest disturbance, including fire, logging, road construction and insects, using disturbance properties and spectral and topographic variables in the random forest model.ResultsThe conventional and area-adjusted overall accuracies (OAs) of the forest disturbance map were 92.3% and 97.70% ± 0.06%, respectively, and the OA of mapping disturbance agents was 85.80%. The estimated disturbed forest area totalled 3313.13 km2 (approximately 2.31% of the total forest area in 1990) from 1990 to 2020, with considerable interannual fluctuations and significant regional differences. The predominant disturbance agent was fire, which comprised approximately 83.33% of the forest area disturbance, followed by logging (12.2%), insects (2.4%) and road construction (2.0%). Massive forest disturbances occurred mainly before 2000, and the post-2000 annual disturbance area significantly dropped by 55% compared with the pre-2000 value.ConclusionsThis study provided spatially explicit and retrospective information on annual forest disturbance and associated agents in the HDMR. The findings suggest that China’s logging bans in natural forests combined with other forest sustainability programmes have effectively curbed forest disturbances in the HDMR, which has implications for enhancing future forest management and biodiversity conservation.

Comparative study of fuzzy-AHP and BBN for spatially-explicit prediction of bark beetle predisposition

The European spruce bark beetle ‘Ips typographus L.’ is the most serious disturbance agent for European forests. The complex interactions of many influencing factors need to be integrated into a model-based decision-support system to reduce the potential loss of forests. This paper compares two methodological approaches for spatially-explicit prediction of the predisposition for bark beetle infestations. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the Bayesian belief networks were used in combination with a geographical information system to manage uncertainties. Using available data resources, the two approaches were evaluated to produce robust results for forest practitioners and to support measures to minimize the spread of bark beetles. The findings revealed that nearly 32% of the sites investigated in a case study were moderately-high or high risk categories. It is concluded that BBN is more efficient. Both methods can easily be used to analyze environmental problems involving complex interactions among various criteria.

Missing Burns in the High Northern Latitudes: The Case for Regionally Focused Burned Area Products

Global estimates of burned areas, enabled by the wide-open access to the standard data products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), are heavily relied on by scientists and managers studying issues related to wildfire occurrence and its worldwide consequences. While these datasets, particularly the MODIS MCD64A1 product, have fundamentally improved our understanding of wildfire regimes at the global scale, their performance may be less reliable in certain regions due to a series of region- or ecosystem-specific challenges. Previous studies have indicated that global burned area products tend to underestimate the extent of the burned area within some parts of the boreal domain. Despite this, global products are still being regularly used by research activities and management efforts in the northern regions, likely due to a lack of understanding of the spatial scale of their Arctic-specific limitations, as well as an absence of more reliable alternative products. In this study, we evaluated the performance of two widely used global burned area products, MCD64A1 and FireCCI51, in the circumpolar boreal forests and tundra between 2001 and 2015. Our two-step evaluation shows that MCD64A1 has high commission and omission errors in mapping burned areas in the boreal forests and tundra regions in North America. The omission error overshadows the commission error, leading to MCD64A1 considerably underestimating burned areas in these high northern latitude domains. Based on our estimation, MCD64A1 missed nearly half the total burned areas in the Alaskan and Canadian boreal forests and the tundra during the 15-year period, amounting to an area (74,768 km2) that is equivalent to the land area of the United States state of South Carolina. While the FireCCI51 product performs much better than MCD64A1 in terms of commission error, we found that it also missed about 40% of burned areas in North America north of 60° N between 2001 and 2015. Our intercomparison of MCD64A1 and FireCCI51 with a regionally adapted MODIS-based Arctic Boreal Burned Area (ABBA) shows that the latter outperforms both MCD64A1 and FireCCI51 by a large margin, particularly in terms of omission error, and thus delivers a considerably more accurate and consistent estimate of fire activity in the high northern latitudes. Considering the fact that boreal forests and tundra represent the largest carbon pool on Earth and that wildfire is the dominant disturbance agent in these ecosystems, our study presents a strong case for regional burned area products like ABBA to be included in future Earth system models as the critical input for understanding wildfires’ impacts on global carbon cycling and energy budget.

Understanding and Modeling Forest Disturbance Interactions at the Landscape Level

Disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic, affect the configuration, composition, and function of forested ecosystems. Complex system behaviors emerge from the interactions between disturbance regimes, the vegetation response to those disturbances, and their interplay with multiple drivers (climate, topography, land use, etc.) across spatial and temporal scales. Here, we summarize conceptual advances and empirical approaches to disturbance interaction investigation, and used those insights to evaluate and categorize 146 landscape modeling studies emerging from a systematic review of the literature published since 2010. Recent conceptual advances include formal disaggregation of disturbances into their constituent components, embedding disturbance processes into system dynamics, and clarifying terminology for interaction factors, types, and ecosystem responses. Empirical studies investigating disturbance interactions now span a wide range of approaches, including (most recently) advanced statistical methods applied to an expanding set of spatial and temporal datasets. Concurrent development in spatially-explicit landscape models, informed by these empirical insights, integrate the interactions among natural and anthropogenic disturbances by coupling these processes to account for disturbance stochasticity, disturbance within and across scales, and non-linear landscape responses to climate change. Still, trade-offs between model elegance and complexity remain. We developed an index for the degree of process integration (i.e., balance of static vs. dynamic components) within a given disturbance agent and applied it to the studies from our systematic review. Contemporary model applications in this line of research have applied a wide range process integration, depending on the specific question, but also limited in part by data and knowledge. Non-linear “threshold” behavior and cross-scaled interactions remain a frontier in temperate, boreal, and alpine regions of North America and Europe, while even simplistic studies are lacking from other regions of the globe (e.g., subtropical and tropical biomes). Understanding and planning for uncertainty in system behavior—including disturbance interactions—is paramount at a time of accelerated anthropogenic change. While progress in landscape modeling studies in this area is evident, work remains to increase model transparency and confidence, especially for understudied regions and processes. Moving forward, a multi-dimensional approach is recommended to address the uncertainties of complex human-ecological dynamics.

Country-wide mapping of harvest areas and post-harvest forest recovery using Landsat time series data in Japan

The characterization of forest harvesting and subsequent vegetation recovery provides valuable insights for effective forest management. Although Landsat time series data offers spatially explicit information regarding large-area forest disturbance and recovery, the detailed characterization of country-wide harvest and post-harvest recovery is insufficient. Despite the importance of planting in harvest areas, the mapping of areas replanted by forest management after harvest are not usually considered. This study investigated an approach to detect harvest and other forest disturbance areas country-wide and to characterize post-harvest recovery using annual Landsat time series data from 1984 to 2020. To do so, a random forest algorithm was used to classify disturbance agents and stable land cover classes using predictor variables derived from the LandTrendr temporal segmentation of five spectral indices and topographic and climate data. Post-harvest recovery was characterized as forest species composition (i.e., coniferous/broadleaved forests) and then used to link replanted areas in harvest areas. The disturbance agents/stable land cover classification achieved producer’s and user’s accuracies of 80.1% (±4.8%) and 93.8% (±3.8%), respectively, for the forest harvest class. The overall accuracy of post-harvest recovery was high (83.9%) and a comparison with statistical data of replanted areas for entire Japan showed good agreement in trends and estimated area with a root mean square error of 2687.8 ha (15.2%). Overall, harvested forest area accounted for 4.6% of the total land area in Japan during the past 35 years. The results indicated that approximately 60.0% of coniferous plantation forests were recovered as coniferous forests. The spatial and temporal distribution of coniferous forests after harvest presumably represented the replanting activity of forest management in harvest areas. The approach presented in this study has the potential to provide valuable information on country-wide replantation activity in harvest areas using Landsat time series data.

Searching for alternative toxicology testing systems: The response of isolated mitochondria from Saccharomyces cerevisiae, potato tuber, and mouse liver to a toxic insult

Mitochondria are cellular power plants known as essential organelles for energy (ATP) metabolism. However, today it is evident that various vital compounds are partially or exclusively synthesized in mitochondria. Moreover, this organelle plays a pivotal role in essential processes such as cell death. The isolated mitochondrion is an excellent experimental model for evaluating the role of mitochondria in the pathogenesis of diseases. Various in vitro and in vivo experimental models have been developed to study mitochondria. On the other hand, some alternative models could also help decrease the use of animal models. In the current study, we compared the response of mitochondria isolated from mouse liver, saccharomyces cerevisiae (S.c), and potato tuber to various concentrations of calcium (Ca2+) as a robust mitochondrial disturbing agent. The current study found that significant mitochondrial depolarization, decreased ATP levels, mitochondrial permeabilization, and decreased mitochondrial dehydrogenases activity were found in all isolated mitochondrial preparations. No significant difference between mouse liver, S.c, and potato tuber mitochondria were detected in experiments carried out in the current investigation. We are aware that mitochondria from different species have a huge structural and enzymatic variance. Hence, these models could just estimate the effect of xenobiotics in biological systems. However, the data derived from this study could finally help to decrease the use of experimental animals and provide new approaches for evaluating mitochondrial function.

Disturbance and the (surprising?) role of ecosystem engineering in explaining spatial patterns of non-native plant establishment.

Different conceptions of disturbance differ in the degree to which they appeal to mechanisms that are general and equivalent, or species‐, functional group‐, or interaction‐specific. Some concepts of disturbance, for example, predict that soil disturbances and herbivory have identical impacts on species richness via identical mechanisms (reduction in biomass and in competition). An alternative hypothesis is that the specific traits of disturbance agents (small mammals) and plants differentially affect the richness or abundance of different plant groups. We tested these hypotheses on a degu (Octodon degus) colony in central Chile. We ask whether native and non‐native forbs respond differently to degu bioturbation on runways versus herbivory on grazing lawns. We ask whether this can explain the increase in non‐native plants on degu colonies. We found that biopedturbation did not explain the locations of non‐native plants. We did not find direct evidence of grazing increasing non‐native herbs either, but a grazing effect appears to be mediated by grass, which is the dominant cover. Further, we provide supplementary evidence to support our interpretation that a key mechanism of non‐native spread is the formation of dry soil conditions on grazing lawns. Thus, ecosystem engineering (alteration of soil qualities) may be an outcome of disturbances, in which each interacts with specific plant traits, to create the observed pattern of non‐native spread in the colony. Based on these results, we propose to extend Jentsch and White (Ecology, 100, 2019, e02734) concept of combined pulse/ disturbance events to the long‐term process duality of ecosystem engineering/ disturbance.

Natural disturbance regimes for implementation of ecological forestry: a review and case study from Nova Scotia, Canada

Ecological forestry is based on the idea that forest patterns and processes are more likely to persist if harvest strategies produce stand structures, return intervals, and severities similar to those from natural disturbances. Taylor et al. (2020) reviewed forest natural disturbance regimes in Nova Scotia, Canada, to support implementation of ecological forestry. In this follow-up paper, we (i) review the use of natural disturbance regimes to determine target harvest rotations, age structures, and residual stand structures; and (ii) describe a novel approach for use of natural disturbance regimes in ecological forestry developed for Nova Scotia. Most examples of ecological forestry consider only the local, dominant disturbance agent, such as fire in boreal regions. Our approach included: (i) using current ecological land classification to map potential natural vegetation (PNV) community types; (ii) determining cumulative natural disturbance effects of all major disturbances, in our case fire, hurricanes, windstorm, and insect outbreaks for each PNV; and (iii) using natural disturbance regime parameters to derive guidelines for ecological forestry for each PNV. We analyzed disturbance occurrence and return intervals based on low, moderate, and high severity classes (&lt;30, 30–60, and &gt;60% of biomass of living trees killed, respectively), which were used to determine mean annual disturbance rates by severity class. Return intervals were used to infer target stand age-class distributions for high, moderate, and low severity disturbances for each PNV. The range of variation in rates of high severity disturbances among PNVs was from 0.28%·year–1 in Tolerant Hardwood to 2.1%·year–1 in the Highland Fir PNV, equating to return intervals of 357 years in Tolerant Hardwood to 48 years in Highland Fir PNVs. As an example, this return interval for the Tolerant Hardwood PNV resulted in target rotation lengths of 200 years for 35% of the PNV area, 500 years for 40%, and 1000 years for 25%. The proposed approach of determining natural disturbance regimes for PNV communities and calculating target disturbance rates and corresponding harvest rotation lengths or entry times appears to be a feasible method to guide ecological forestry in any region with a strong ecological land classification system and multiple disturbance agents.

Impacts of wildfire and landscape factors on organic soil properties in Arctic tussock tundra

Tundra ecosystems contain some of the largest stores of soil organic carbon among all biomes worldwide. Wildfire, the primary disturbance agent in Arctic tundra, is likely to impact soil properties in ways that enable carbon release and modify ecosystem functioning more broadly through impacts on organic soils, based on evidence from a recent extreme Anaktuvuk River Fire (ARF). However, comparatively little is known about the long-term impacts of typical tundra fires that are short-lived and transient. Here we quantitatively investigated how these transient tundra fires and other landscape factors affected organic soil properties, including soil organic layer (SOL) thickness, soil temperature, and soil moisture, in the tussock tundra. We examined extensive field observations collected from nearly 200 plots across a wide range of fire-impacted tundra regions in AK within the scope of NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment. We found an overall shallower SOL in our field regions (∼15 cm on average) compared to areas with no known fire record or the ARF (∼20 cm or thicker), suggesting that estimations based on evidence from the extreme ARF event could result in gross overestimation of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock and fire impacts across the tundra. Typical tundra fires could be too short-lived to result in substantial SOL consumption and yield less robust results of SOL and carbon storage. Yet, repeated fires may amount to a larger amount of SOC loss than one single severe burning. As expected, our study showed that wildfire could affect soil moisture and temperature in the tussock tundra over decades after the fire, with drier and warmer soils found to be associated with more frequent and severe burnings. Soil temperature was also associated with vegetation cover and air temperature.

The motion of trees in the wind: a data synthesis

Abstract. Interactions between wind and trees control energy exchanges between the atmosphere and forest canopies. This energy exchange can lead to the widespread damage of trees, and wind is a key disturbance agent in many of the world's forests. However, most research on this topic has focused on conifer plantations, where risk management is economically important, rather than broadleaf forests, which dominate the forest carbon cycle. This study brings together tree motion time-series data to systematically evaluate the factors influencing tree responses to wind loading, including data from both broadleaf and coniferous trees in forests and open environments. We found that the two most descriptive features of tree motion were (a) the fundamental frequency, which is a measure of the speed at which a tree sways and is strongly related to tree height, and (b) the slope of the power spectrum, which is related to the efficiency of energy transfer from wind to trees. Intriguingly, the slope of the power spectrum was found to remain constant from medium to high wind speeds for all trees in this study. This suggests that, contrary to some predictions, damping or amplification mechanisms do not change dramatically at high wind speeds, and therefore wind damage risk is related, relatively simply, to wind speed. Conifers from forests were distinct from broadleaves in terms of their response to wind loading. Specifically, the fundamental frequency of forest conifers was related to their size according to the cantilever beam model (i.e. vertically distributed mass), whereas broadleaves were better approximated by the simple pendulum model (i.e. dominated by the crown). Forest conifers also had a steeper slope of the power spectrum. We interpret these finding as being strongly related to tree architecture; i.e. conifers generally have a simple shape due to their apical dominance, whereas broadleaves exhibit a much wider range of architectures with more dominant crowns.

Identification and functional characterization of sex pheromone receptors in mirid bugs (Heteroptera: Miridae)

Mirid bugs are a group of important insect pests that cause large annual losses in agricultural production. Many studies have focused on the isolation and identification of sex pheromones in mirid bugs, and the components and biological activity of the sex pheromones have also been studied as a way to control these pests. However, few studies have focused on the mechanisms of pheromone perception. In this study, we identified the odorant receptor repertoire in three mirid bug species, Apolygus lucorum, Adelphocoris lineolatus, and Adelphocoris suturalis using antennal transcriptome sequencing and bioinformatics analysis. The candidate pheromone receptor (PR) genes were then identified by comparative transcriptomic and expression pattern analysis. Importantly, in vitro functional studies have shown that the candidate PRs have robust responses to the main mirid bug sex pheromone components (E)-2-hexenyl butyrate (E2HB) and hexyl butyrate (HB). Our study uncovered the mechanism of pheromone peripheral coding in these three species and elucidated the mechanism by which mirid bugs can specifically recognize a mate. Moreover, the results of our study will provide a theoretical basis for screening effective sex attractants or mating disturbance agents at the molecular and neural levels for enhanced control of these destructive pests.

The Difficulty of Predicting Eastern Spruce Dwarf Mistletoe in Lowland Black Spruce: Model Benchmarking in Northern Minnesota, USA

Insects, fungi, and diseases play an important role in forest stand development and subsequently, forest management decisions and treatments. As these disturbance agents commonly occur within and across landscapes, modeling has often been used to inform forest planning and management decisions. However, models are rarely benchmarked, leaving questions about their utility. Here, we assessed the predictive performance of a Bayesian hierarchical model through on–the-ground sampling to explore what features of stand structure or composition may be important factors related to eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium pusillum Peck) presence in lowland black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B. S. P.). Twenty-five state-owned stands included in the predictive model were sampled during the 2019 and 2020 growing seasons. Within each stand, data related to the presence of eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe, stand structure, and species composition were collected. The model accurately predicted eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe occurrence for 13 of the 25 stands. The amount of living and dead black spruce basal area differed significantly based on model prediction and observed infestation, but trees per hectare, total living basal area, diameter at breast height, stand age, and species richness were not significantly different. Our results highlight the benefits of model benchmarking to improve model interpretation as well as to inform our understanding of forest health problems across diverse stand conditions.

The effect of fire on ant assemblages does not depend on habitat openness but does select for large, gracile predators

AbstractEcosystems can respond in a variety of ways to the same agent of disturbance. In some contexts, fire causes large and long‐lasting changes to ecological communities. In others, fire has a limited or short‐lived impact on assemblages of animals and plants. Understanding why this occurs is critical if we are to manage these kinds of disturbances across the globe. A recent synthesis proposed that these seemingly idiosyncratic responses to fire can be understood in the context of habitat openness pre‐disturbance. Assemblages in open habitats should respond less to a single fire event that those in closed habitats. We provide a test of this hypothesis by examining the response of ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) communities to large‐scale fire events in three habitats of different natural canopy openness on the Peloponnese peninsula in Greece. We also test the hypothesis that assemblage responses to fire are trait dependent. Fire simplifies the physical structure of the environment, increases insolation, and limits opportunities for ants to exploit herbivorous feeding strategies. Consequently, we predict that ants will face a strong environmental filter between unburnt and recently burnt plots, which will be reflected in their functional morphology. Our analysis shows that burnt plots have more individual ants, more species and an almost complete compositional change relative to unburnt plots. These changes do not depend on initial canopy openness. Rather, we suggest that openness must be interpreted relative to the study taxon; for ants, openness should be measured closer to the ground level. In our study, ground‐level openness does not vary across the plots, which may explain the results. Furthermore, ants in burnt plots are significantly larger, have relatively longer legs, relatively longer mandibles, and more elongate heads. This morphotype fits with our prediction of ants that can move and feed successfully in the burnt micro‐landscape. Ultimately, more work is needed to fully explore the relationship between habitat openness and the response to fire. Our results showing a filtered set of ant morphologies in burnt environments suggest that ant traits may offer a further way forward to understand the faunal response to fire and disturbance in general.

Storm and fire disturbances in Europe: Distribution and trends.

Abiotic forest disturbances are an important driver of ecosystem dynamics. In Europe, storms and fires have been identified as the most important abiotic disturbances in the recent past. Yet, how strongly these agents drive local disturbance regimes compared to other agents (e.g., biotic, human) remains unresolved. Furthermore, whether storms and fires are responsible for the observed increase in forest disturbances in Europe is debated. Here, we provide quantitative evidence for the prevalence of storm and fire disturbances in Europe 1986-2016. For 27 million disturbance patches mapped from satellite data, we determined whether they were caused by storm or fire, using a random forest classifier and a large reference dataset of true disturbance occurrences. We subsequently analyzed patterns of disturbance prevalence (i.e., the share of an agent on the overall area disturbed) in space and time. Storm- and fire-related disturbances each accounted for approximately 7% of all disturbances recorded in Europe in the period 1986-2016. Storm-related disturbances were most prevalent in western and central Europe, where they locally accounted for >50% of all disturbances, but we also identified storm-related disturbances in south-eastern and eastern Europe. Fire-related disturbances were a major disturbance agent in southern and south-eastern Europe, but fires also occurred in eastern and northern Europe. The prevalence and absolute area of storm-related disturbances increased over time, whereas no trend was detected for fire-related disturbances. Overall, we estimate an average of 127,716 (97,680-162,725) ha of storm-related disturbances per year and an average of 141,436 (107,353-181,022) ha of fire-related disturbances per year. We conclude that abiotic disturbances caused by storm and fire are important drivers of forest dynamics in Europe, but that their influence varies substantially by region. Our analysis further suggests that increasing storm-related disturbances are an important driver of Europe's changing forest disturbance regimes.

Human or natural? Landscape context improves the attribution of forest disturbances mapped from Landsat in Central Europe

Disturbances have increased in Central Europe's forests, but whether changes in disturbance regimes are driven by natural or human causes remains unclear. Satellite-based remote sensing provides an important data source for quantifying forest disturbance change. Separating causes of forest disturbance is challenging, however, particularly in areas such as Central Europe where disturbance patches are small and disturbance agents interact strongly. Here we present a novel approach for the causal attribution of forest disturbance agents and illustrate its utility for 1.01 million disturbance patches mapped from Landsat data in Austria for the period 1986–2016. We gathered reference data on 2620 disturbance patches by conducting targeted field observations and structured interviews with 21 forest managers. We developed a novel indicator class characterizing the landscape context of a disturbance patch (i.e., the spatio-temporal autocorrelation of disturbance patches on the landscape), and combined it with other predictor variables describing the spectral signal, topography, and patch form of each disturbance patch. We used these predictors to identify the causal agents for disturbances mapped in Austria using Random Forest classification. Landscape context was the most important predictor of disturbance agent, improving model performance by up to 26 percentage points. Wind, bark beetles and timber harvesting were separated with an overall accuracy of 63%. Bark beetle patches were most difficult to identify correctly (producer's accuracy = 15%, user's accuracy = 30%), while regular timber harvesting was classified with highest certainty (producer's accuracy = 68%, user's accuracy = 82%). Harvesting dominates the disturbance regime of Austria's forests, with 70.5% of the disturbed area (76.7% of the disturbed patches) attributed to human causes and 29.5% (23.3%) to natural causes (wind: 23.0% [14.8%], bark beetles: 6.5% [8.5%]). Increases in disturbance since 1986 were driven by natural causes, with wind increasing by 408% and bark beetles increasing by 99% between the first and the second half of the observation period. Wind-disturbed patches were also considerably larger than those caused by bark beetles and harvesting (+102% and + 67%, respectively). Our novel approach to mapping causal agents of forest disturbance, applicable also to highly complex and interactive disturbance regimes, provides an important step towards a comprehensive monitoring and management of forest disturbances in a changing world.

Conifer bark beetles

Fettig and Audley introduce the bark beetles-a large and diverse group of insects of which some are commonly recognized as important disturbance agents in conifer forests.

Both Cyclone‐induced and Convective Storms Drive Disturbance Patterns in European Primary Beech Forests

AbstractWind is the leading disturbance agent in European forests, and the magnitude of wind impacts on forest mortality has increased over recent decades. However, the atmospheric triggers behind severe winds in Western Europe (large‐scale cyclones) differ from those in Southeastern Europe (small‐scale convective instability). This geographic difference in wind drivers alters the spatial scale of resulting disturbances and potentially the sensitivity to climate change. Over the 20th century, the severity and prevalence of cyclone‐induced windstorms have increased while the prevalence of atmospheric instability has decreased and thus, the trajectory of Europe‐wide windthrow remains uncertain. To better predict forest sensitivity and trends of windthrow disturbance we used dendrochronological methods to reconstruct 140 years of disturbance history in beech‐dominated primary forests of Central and Eastern Europe. We compared generalized linear mixed models of these disturbance time series to determine whether large‐scale cyclones or small‐scale convective storms were more responsible for disturbance severity while also accounting for topography and stand character variables likely to influence windthrow susceptibility. More exposed forests, forests with a longer absence of disturbance, and forests lacking recent high severity disturbance showed increased sensitivity to both wind drivers. Large‐scale cyclone‐induced windstorms were the main driver of disturbance severity at both the plot and stand scale (0.1–∼100 ha) whereas convective instability effects were more localized (0.1 ha). Though the prevalence and severity of cyclone‐induced windstorms have increased over the 20 century, primary beech forests did not display an increase in the severity of windthrow observed over the same period.