Discrete-time Event History Analysis Research Articles

Demographic consequences of social movements: local protests delay marriage formation in Ethiopia

Abstract Despite their significance, life-course dynamics are rarely considered as consequences of social movements. We address this shortcoming by investigating the relationship between protest and marriage formation in Ethiopia. Building on scholarship in social movements and insights from family demography, we argue that exposure to protest delays marriage formation. To test our theoretical arguments, we created an original panel dataset using georeferenced data from the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey. We combined the marriage histories of 4,398 young women with fine-grained measures of exposure to local protests that we compiled from two conflict datasets covering events between 2002 and 2016. Using discrete-time event history analyses, we find that protest delays first-marriage formation. Additional analyses suggest that political uncertainty and disruptions in interethnic marriages cannot explain this effect. Instead, we provide tentative evidence that protest delays marriage formation by preoccupying large segments of the marriageable population, rendering them unavailable for this critical life-course transition. Our findings pave the way for scholarship on the demographic outcomes of protest and contribute to understanding marriage patterns in a country where the timing of marriage has far-reaching social consequences.

A Care Paradox: The Relationship Between Older Adults' Caregiving Arrangements and Institutionalization and Mortality.

We investigate how the type of caregiving arrangement is associated with older Americans' outcomes. We use the Health and Retirement Study (2004-2018) and discrete-time event history analysis to assess the odds of institutionalization or death over a 14-year period among older adults with limitations in Activities of Daily Living (ADLs; e.g., bathing). We consider caregiving arrangements as conventional (i.e., spouse or adult child), unconventional (e.g., extended family, employee, friend), or self-directed (i.e., no caregiver). We find a "care paradox" in that self-directing one's own care was associated with a lower risk of institutionalization or death compared with having conventional care (spouse/adult caregiver) and unconventional care (employee). Relative to conventional care, having an employee caregiver was associated with increased risk of institutionalization. Findings are still observed when controlling for level of impairment and various health-related factors. More research is needed to understand older adults who self-direct their own care.

Widening the knowledge of non-employment as a risk factor for suicide: a Norwegian register-based population study

BackgroundThere is a known association between employment status and suicide risk. However, both reason for non-employment and the duration affects the relationship. These factors are investigated to a lesser extent. About one third of the Norwegian working age population are not currently employed. Due to the share size of this population even a small increase in suicide risk is of importance, and hence increased knowledge about this group is needed.MethodsWe used discrete time event history analysis to examine the relationship between suicide risk and non-employment due to either unemployment or health-problems, and the duration of these non-employment periods. We analyze data from the Norwegian population registry from 2004 to 2014, which includes all Norwegian residents in the ages 19–58 born between 1952 and 1989. In total the data consists of 1 063 052 men and 1 024 238 women, and 2 039 suicides.ResultsThe suicide risk among the non-employed men and women is significantly higher than that of the employed. For the unemployed men, the suicide risk is significantly higher than the employed within the first 18 months. For the unemployed women we only find a significant association with suicide risk among those unemployed for six to twelve months. The suicide risk is especially increased among those with temporary health-related benefits. In the second year of health-related non-employment men have eightfold and women over twelvefold the OR for suicide, compared to the employed.ConclusionThere is an association between non-employment and suicide risk. Compared to the employed both unemployed men and men and women with health-related non-employment have elevated suicide risk, and the duration of non-employment may be the driving force. Considering the large share of the working age population that are not employed, non-employment status should be considered in suicide risk assessment by health care professionals and welfare providers.

Interethnic Union Formation Among 1.5- and Second-Generation Immigrants: The Role of Cultural Proximity

We examine 1.5- and second-generation immigrants’ union formation patterns in Denmark and how they relate to the cultural proximity between their countries of origin and Denmark as indicated by religion, values, and language. Drawing on administrative register data on 71,122 1.5- and second-generation immigrants from 120 different countries of origin, we use multilevel discrete-time event history analysis to examine the nexus between cultural proximity and union formation patterns. These models rigorously control for time-varying individual factors and changes in opportunity structures in local partner markets. Our results suggest that religion strongly relates to the 1.5- and second-generation immigrants’ union formation patterns. At the same time, this is not the case for the other cultural factors when we account for religion. Specifically, our results suggest that 1.5- and second-generation immigrants from non-Christian and especially from Muslim countries are less likely to form interethnic unions with natives and more likely to form intraethnic unions with same-country immigrants than their Protestant-background counterparts. Moreover, these patterns are most pronounced for women. Overall, we conclude that religion remains a strong predictor of interethnic union formation with natives among 1.5- and second-generation immigrants in Denmark and discuss the implications of this finding.

Do birds of a feather leave the nest together? The role of sibling personality similarity in the transition to adulthood.

Empirical evidences on intragenerational transmission of life course have been demonstrated and that interpersonal similarity may moderate the effect. In particular, siblings who are more similar in their demographic characteristics are more likely to follow each other's life course transitions. Focusing on parental home-leaving and building upon the social influence processes and similarity-attraction effects, this study investigates whether the association between siblings' departures from the parental home increases when they are similar in the Big Five personality traits, like similarity in demographic traits. We use 28 waves of a longitudinal sample from "Understanding Society: The U.K. Household Longitudinal Study". The results of the multilevel discrete-time event-history analysis (N = 3,717 children) indicate that the association between leaving of a sibling and oneself was strengthened when they had a similar level of extraversion, particularly when they were both introverts. This implies that although introverted adolescents and emerging adults might take less initiative regarding social relationships and be more hesitant in their transition to adulthood, when a similarly introverted sibling makes such a transition, they are more inclined to do so. To conclude, the study uncovers the relationship between siblings' personality similarity and their resemblance in nest-leaving, which helps explain young adults' home-leaving decision in an era when delayed leaving is observed.

Household structure, composition and child mortality in the unfolding antiretroviral therapy era in rural South Africa: comparative evidence from population surveillance, 2000–2015

ObjectivesThe structure and composition of the household has important influences on child mortality. However, little is known about these factors in HIV-endemic areas and how associations may change with the...

Prolonging working life among blue-collar workers: The buffering effect of psychosocial job resources on the association between physically demanding and hazardous work and retirement timing

The need to delay retirement timing has been acknowledged in Western countries due to demographic ageing. The aim of the present study was to examine the buffering effects of job resources (decision authority, social support, work-time control, and rewards) on the association of exposures to physically demanding work tasks and physically hazardous work environment with non-disability retirement timing. Results from discrete-time event history analyses, in a sample of blue-collar workers (n = 1741; 2792 observations) from the nationwide longitudinal Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH), supported that decision authority and social support may buffer the negative impact of heavy physical demands on working longer (continuing working vs retiring). Stratified analyses by gender showed that the buffering effect of decision authority remained statistically significant for men, while that of social support remained statistically significant for women. Moreover, an age effect was displayed, such that a buffering effect of social support on the association of heavy physical demands and high physical hazards with working longer were found among older men (≥64 years), but not younger (59–63 years). The findings suggest that heavy physical demands should be reduced, however, when not feasible physical demands should be accompanied by social support at work for delaying retirement.

Place of Residence Does Matter for Educational Integration: The Relevance of Spatial Contexts for Refugees’ Transition to VET in Germany

For the mostly young refugees who arrived in Germany around 2015/2016, completing vocational education and training (VET) represents the most promising opportunity for professional and social integration. However, access opportunities to VET are characterized by spatial inequalities: German districts vary considerably according to labour market structure, economic productivity and demographic development, which constitute the supply and demand for training places in the dual VET sector, to which refugees predominantly have access. This paper examines if the transition chances of young refugees aged 18–30 to VET depend on their place of residence. For this, we analysed the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees (n = 5216) using multi-level discrete-time event history analysis. On the supply side, higher economic productivity (measured by GDP), a low unemployment rate and a greater number of small versus large businesses in the district are positively associated with refugees’ transition chances. On the demand side, an increasing number of school leavers with no school-leaving certificate and of refugees in the district are negatively associated with the respective chances. Our results suggest that spatial characteristics essentially matter for young refugees’ training opportunities and thus support recommendations to reform current distribution policies, in which central spatial contextual factors remain largely disregarded.

Educational Gradient in Unintended First Births in Korea

A number of studies have used samples from Western societies to assess educational differences in the likelihood of unintended pregnancies and births, but the issue is vastly understudied in Korea. To fill the gap in the literature, this paper draws data from the two most recent rounds of the National Survey on Fertility, Family Health, and Welfare ( N = 20,669), and adopted a competing risks framework to estimate the hazards of an intended first birth and unintended first birth relative to no birth. Results from discrete-time event history analyses indicate that women’s educational attainment significantly reduces the odds of unintended first childbirth, even after accounting for various sociodemographic factors. Women with two- and four-year college degrees were 47.5% and 63.9% less likely to experience unintended childbearing compared with those without a high school degree. Women’s higher educational attainment is also negatively associated with the odds of intended childbearing relative to no birth. Hence, the present study suggests that there is a strong negative association between unintended childbearing and educational attainment among Korean women. These results are in accordance with Western patterns, and do not support an inverted correlation reported in Japan. Interaction between gender role ideology and educational attainment also indicated that women’s higher education tends to reduce the probability of experiencing unintended childbirth except when women have a very strong beliefs in gender equity. A better understanding on the determinants of unintended childbearing may be useful for identifying vulnerable segments of the population and preventing the intergenerational transmission of social disadvantages through fertility behaviors.

The long reach of class origin on financial investments and net worth

In this study, we argue that parents’ class position may influence the type and timing of their offspring's investments in financial assets. These investments may facilitate net worth accumulation beyond direct transfers, contributing to the intergenerational reproduction of social positions. We test these expectations using retrospective life history and prospective panel data for 14 countries from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. We apply discrete-time event history analyses to examine the first financial investments’ timing over the life course and conduct a mediation analysis of net worth. We find that individuals from advantaged parental classes are more likely to invest in stocks and mutual funds. When considering horizontal differentiation, managerial classes with relatively more economic capital than cultural capital are more likely to invest in financial assets. However, we do not find robust evidence for distinct timings of financial investments by parental class. Advantaged parental class is positively associated with net worth in later life. However, this association cannot be explained by the specific investments of individuals from advantaged parental classes.

Investigating the application of generalized additive models to discrete-time event history analysis for birth events

Discrete-time event history analysis (EHA) is the standard approach taken when modelling fertility histories collected in surveys, where the date of birth is often recorded imprecisely. This method is commonly used to investigate the factors associated wit

The Implication of Physically Demanding and Hazardous Work on Retirement Timing.

The need to retain individuals longer in the workforce is acknowledged in many high-income countries. The present study therefore aimed to examine the importance of physically demanding work tasks (PDWT) and physically hazardous work environment (PHWE) in relation to retirement timing among pensionable workers (≥61 years). A particular question was whether PDWT and PHWE increased in importance with age. Six waves (2008–2018) of the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH) were used (n = 5201; 56% women and 44% men; mean age at first survey was 61.0 (SD 2.0) years). Discrete time-event history analysis, stratified by socioeconomic position and gender, showed that among blue-collar workers, PDWT and PHWE were associated with an increased likelihood of retiring within the next two years. With increasing age, high-level PHWE was associated with higher probability of retiring among blue-collar men, whereas heavy PDWT was associated with lower probability of retiring among blue-collar women. Among white-collar workers, having at least some PDWT compared to no PDWT was associated with a lower likelihood of retiring within the next two years. With increasing age, exposure to PHWE was associated with higher probability of retiring among white-collar women. These results suggest that to delay retirements, organizations could offer their older employees, especially blue-collar workers and the oldest white-collar women, alternatives to PDWT and PHWE.

Environmental and socioeconomic determinants of neonatal mortality in a northern Italian city in the early nineteenth century

The research explores the effects of the environment on neonatal mortality in the early nineteenth century, controlling for social and economic factors. Individual data, relative to the resident population of Udine, a city in northeastern Italy, under French domination (1806–1815) have been used. The information collected regards births and deaths within the first month of life and is taken from the Napoleonic civil registers. The spatial distribution of some data within the urban area, heating in the houses where children were born or died, and a time series of temperature levels and corn prices are taken into account. The methodological approach adopted is based on logistic regression models and discrete-time event history analysis. The results point to excess winter neonatal mortality. Neonatal mortality was higher in peripheral areas of the city and in heated houses. A positive relationship between mortality and lower temperatures and corn prices has been found. As to socioeconomic status, peasant families and those of the upper class showed, respectively, the lowest and the highest mortality levels. This was arguably the result of the adoption of different breastfeeding practices.

Do good psychosocial working conditions prolong working lives? Findings from a prospective study in Sweden

Due to an ageing population, governments in European countries are striving to keep older workers longer in the workforce. Remarkably few studies have paid attention to the influence of psychosocial working conditions on timing of retirement for older workers in and beyond normative retirement age. The aim of the present study was to examine whether good psychosocial working conditions contribute to prolonged working lives among older workers (59 years and above). A particular question was whether such conditions increase in importance with age. Seven waves (2006–2018) of the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH) were used (N = 6000, observations = 10,632). Discrete-time event history analyses showed that higher levels of job resources (decision authority [OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.06–1.22], skill use [OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.07–1.29], learning opportunities [OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.13–1.31], social support [OR 1.29 (95% CI 1.16–1.42], work-time control [OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01–1.13], and reward [OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.24–1.57])—but not lower levels of job demands (quantitative and emotional demands or effort)—were associated with working longer (continued work two years later). Also, low effort-reward imbalance (OR 0.84 [95% CI 0.73–0.96]) was associated with working longer. In addition, skill use, work-time control, reward, and low effort-reward imbalance increased in importance with age for continued work. These results suggest that providing older workers with control over their work tasks, giving opportunities for learning and using their skills, as well as rewarding and acknowledging their achievements, may keep them in the workforce longer. Especially, job resources may grow in importance with age.

Taking Up and Terminating Leisure-Time Physical Activity over the Life Course: The Role of Life Events in the Familial and Occupational Life Domains.

Leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) is associated with various health-promoting effects. However, little is known about the relationship between life events and changes in LTPA over the life course, especially when multiple life events occur simultaneously. Therefore, this study examines taking up and terminating LTPA associated with life events in the familial and occupational life domains over 16 years of 16–76-year-old Swiss inhabitants (n = 1857) in a retrospective longitudinal cohort design, using a validated telephone survey and multilevel discrete-time event-history analyses. The results show that taking up LTPA was more likely when ending a relationship and retiring and less likely when becoming a parent; terminating LTPA was more likely when ending a job, starting vocational training after 30 years, a relationship ended for men, and becoming a mother with increasing age. If experiencing multiple life events simultaneously, the greater the number of life events, the more likely persons aged 45–70 years were to take up LTPA and, conversely, the more likely persons aged 15–44 years to terminate LTPA. The relationship between life events and changes in LTPA over the life course was often age dependent, especially when experiencing multiple life events simultaneously. The findings should be considered when promoting LTPA.

Women's Divergent Union Transitions After Marital Dissolution in the United States.

In the United States, high marital instability calls for more research on union transitions after marital dissolution. Previous studies focus on remarriage and pay little attention to rising post-dissolution cohabitation. In this study, I apply marital search theory to examine the level, pace, and differentials of repartnering (remarriage or cohabitation vs. staying single) and the exit from cohabitation (remarriage or dissolution vs. staying cohabiting). Adopting union history data from the pooled National Survey of Family Growth (2011-2017), I track union transitions among a sample of N = 2129 women. Analyses based on life tables and discrete-time event history analyses reveal important findings. First, most women repartner after marital dissolution. Compared to remarriage, cohabitation occurs more frequently and shows a quicker pace. Second, post-dissolution cohabitation is short-lived, and its transition to remarriage is more common than to dissolution. Third, these union transitions differ by demographic and socioeconomic predictors, including age, race and ethnicity, and education. Overall, I reveal that post-dissolution union transition is a divergent and unequal process, and I further discuss the implications on theory and family inequality.

Labour market uncertainty and the economic foundations of marriage in South Korea

ABSTRACT Using data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (1998–2014), this study examines how various indicators of socioeconomic status (SES) (i.e. education, employment status, occupation, and earnings) are associated with the transition to first marriage for South Korean men and women. Results from discrete-time event-history analysis show that all SES indicators are strongly associated with the timing of marriage for men and that there is a clear SES gradient for men's marriage entry. In addition, women with high SES (regular, white-collar jobs, and the highest earnings) are more likely to get married than those with lower SES. We also find that securing a regular job is a significant factor for marriage formation regardless of gender. These results indicate that among those with high SES in South Korea, the economic foundations of marriage appear to be characterised by the cooperation model.

Does the birth of a child still prompt a marriage? A comparison of Austria, France, Germany and Hungary

ABSTRACT Austria, France, Germany, and Hungary are four neighbouring European societies all with conservative welfare regimes, yet with distinct institutional and structural features. We investigate how these differences shape a particular example of culturally contingent behaviour: cohabiting couples’ marriage behaviour when they have a child. Based on a discussion of relevant differences in family policy, legal frames and normative contexts, we develop hypotheses on country-specific marriage patterns. We test these hypotheses using longitudinal data from the Generations and Gender Programme (GGP) and the German Family Panel (pairfam). A number of relevant covariates were harmonized in order to be able to control for potential confounders which may affect the fertility process as well as marriage formation. Using discrete-time event history analysis, we observe robust differences in the effects of fertility on the marriage rate of cohabiting couples between the four countries. Pregnancy increases the marriage rate in Austria, Germany and Hungary, whereas no significant effect of fertility is found for France. After childbirth, the transition rate drops to its pre-pregnancy level in Austria and Germany and even below that in Hungary. Our findings point to a critical role of the socio-cultural context in which couples make relevant decisions about their private lives.

Welfare regime patterns in the social class-fertility relationship: Second births in Austria, France, Norway, and the United Kingdom

This paper develops a theoretical framework to analyze the relationship between social class and fertility. The framework borrows elements from social class analysis, institutional perspectives on the labor market and fertility, and welfare and gender regime theories. I hypothesize that individuals’ social class positions impinge on their economic security, employment–parenthood role compatibility, and gender relations, which are key variables in the explanation of fertility in contemporary postindustrial societies. Different combinations of these variables for each social class and country lead to class-specific fertility patterns. I use Austrian, French, Norwegian, and British samples from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, for the years 2004–2015, and discrete-time event–history analysis techniques to analyze second birth probabilities. A simultaneous equations approach is adopted to account for unobserved heterogeneity. The results document substantial differentials between social classes and distinct social class patterns for each country, consistently with the theoretical expectations. In Norway and France, overall high levels of second birth probabilities are found that follow a positive social ordering. In the United Kingdom and Austria, a U-shaped relationship between class and second birth probabilities prevails. Once unobserved heterogeneity is accounted for in the analyses, social class shows a positive effect on fertility in the four countries. The results show that social class is not only key to understanding intracountry differentials in fertility but is also useful for understanding the functioning of the welfare regime and its relationship to overall levels of fertility.

White Men Can’t Jump, but Does It Even Matter? Exit Discrimination in the NBA

AbstractDiffuse status characteristics, such as race and gender, affect individuals’ professional opportunities and outcomes. Scholars suggest two possible explanations for these status disparities. First, uncertainty in measuring workers’ performances forces employers to rely on status as a heuristic or proxy for quality. Second, a history of racism and sexism in the United States creates a deeper cultural devaluation of low-status individuals that permeates organizational structures such that status advantage would persist even after accounting for observed worker performance. However, researchers struggle to accurately and objectively measure worker performance, making it difficult to adjudicate between these two perspectives. We overcome this problem using the case of the National Basketball Association (NBA) in which detailed player statistics are widely available to the public and decision makers. We analyze whether there is a racial disparity in the odds of exiting the league using discrete-time event history analysis. Using data from 1980–2017, we demonstrate that after accounting for player performance, Black players have 30% higher odds of exiting the league in a given season. We find this disparity is mostly driven by White bench players allowing us to elucidate how Whiteness operates as a credential in the NBA by giving marginal White players benefits such as longer careers than comparable Black players. These findings demonstrate that racial disparities in workplaces may persist even once performance is captured and in cases like the NBA where we might expect racial disparities to be minimized.