Disaster Management Plans Research Articles

Prediction of Daily Climate Using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Model

Climaate prediction plays a vital role in various sectors, including agriculture, disaster management, and urban planning. Traditional methods for climate forecasting often rely on complex physical models, which require substantial computational resources and may not accurately capture local weather patterns. This study explores the potential of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, a type of recurrent neural network, for predicting daily climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity. Utilizing historical climate data from the city of Delhi, we developed an LSTM model to forecast short-term climate trends. The model consists of two LSTM layers followed by three Dense layers and is compiled with the Adam optimizer, mean squared error loss, and mean absolute error as a metric. Our results demonstrate the model's capability to capture temporal dependencies in climate data, achieving a satisfactory level of accuracy in temperature forecasting. This research underscores the potential of machine learning techniques, particularly LSTM networks, in enhancing climate prediction and contributing to more informed decision-making in weather-sensitive sectors.

Impact of information provision on tsunami evacuation behavior of residents and international tourists in Japan

Effective disaster management can help mitigate both human and financial damage. However, the absence of appropriate disaster preparedness and management efforts can increase the vulnerability of international tourists to natural disasters. International tourists differ from residents and local tourists in various ways, including limited knowledge of disasters and disaster responses, use of different languages, limited access to signs, and shelter locations and evacuation routes. This study developed an agent-based evacuation model to determine the differences in evacuation behaviors among international tourists, residents, and local tourists during a tsunami. Further, it clarified the impact of both soft and hard countermeasures such as information provision and shelter capacity expansion. Our case study was conducted in the Minato Bay area in Osaka, Japan. The simulation results revealed disparities in the evacuation behaviors between international tourists and residents in the arrival times at shelters. The enhanced sign accessibility and provision of signs in multiple languages significantly reduced the arrival time of international tourists at shelters. Consequently, it is necessary to improve disaster management plans that ensure information provision in multiple languages and the establishment of temporary shelters near tourism spots to support international tourists during disaster evacuation.

Expectation and Awareness of Hospital Staff about External Disaster Management Plan at Diarb Negm Central Hospital

Expectation and Awareness of Hospital Staff about External Disaster Management Plan at Diarb Negm Central Hospital

Basic Concepts of Disaster Management and Hazard Risk Vulnerability Profile of Gurgaon Based on District Disaster Management Plan 2020

To understand the process of disaster risk reduction and disaster management it is very important to know the usage meaning and difference between the basic concepts of disaster management. While hazard refers to probable event that can occur, disaster is actual occurrence of the event. Any event becomes a disaster after occurrence when it has very wide impact in terms of loss of life, injury to people, damage and destruction of physical structures and environment. Similarly, vulnerability is situation it can be physical, social or economic but risk is calculation of probable impact of disaster. Capacity improvement can lower the vulnerability, lower the risk and lower the total impact of disaster. Capacity improvement by building strong structures and creating awareness among communities will help in building a resilient society to cope with disasters. In this paper we tried to understand the meaning of these basic concept with illustrations from District Disaster Management Plan 2020 of Gurgaon District of Haryana

Cross-Sectional Analysis of Water Access and Health Conditions in Salinity and Cyclone Prone Areas: A Case Study of Nishanbaria Village in Southern Bangladesh

The present study was conducted in Nishanbaria, a remote coastal village of Barguna district, Bangladesh where access to fresh water is the biggest problem due to salinity and cyclones along with poverty. The study applied several research methods (household survey, Key Informant Interviews, Focus Group Discussion, and observation) to conduct a cross-sectional analysis in order to identify the severity of the water problems and their impacts on people's health in this village. The study reveals that drinking and using saline and dirty water for a long time have direct impacts on health; 87.9% of the families had sick members during the field survey in 2022. The major health problems are skin diseases (according to 30.65 % of the respondents), gastric problems (25.39%), and waterborne diseases (19.35%). According to 90.3% of residents, the salinity of water has a direct impact on pregnancy and children's health and well-being. As the majority of the people collect drinking water from tube wells (80.43%), the number of people using tube wells goes down to only 24.4% after cyclones. Women are the main water collectors in this village; drinking water is collected by female members in 86.86% of the families, domestic water in 98.19%, and water for cleaning purposes in 93.56% of the families. Women are at risk of health problems; different types of pains (according to 49.36% of the residents), accidents (34.33%), and gender-based violence stem from carrying water from distant sources. Poverty (97.84% of the residents live below the poverty line) creates disparity among the residents in accessing proper treatments for all these health problems as well as collecting fresh water from distant sources. A comprehensive and context-based hazard and disaster management plan is required to help this disaster-prone village in improving freshwater availability, and their health and well-being. The Dhaka University Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vol. 12(2), 2023, P 15-26

An Assessment of the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on University Students' Lives in Kenya

The Covid-19 pandemic remains a historical world disaster, which affected all sectors. The suspension of physical learning in universities in Kenya raised eyebrows. This could not have been the case if proper disaster and business continuity plans were in place. The researchers were provoked to find out how the pandemic affected the lives of university students. The study was carried out across public and private universities targeting a population of 1110 students. A mixed methods approach was used, survey design was applied, simple random sampling was used to select the respondents, and primary data were collected using a semi-structured online questionnaire developed from Google Forms where instant data from respondents was analyzed. It is evident that students’ lives in the university were adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Flexibility and adaptability are needed to be able to respond to change. It is paramount that universities develop quality disaster management and business continuity plans (QDMBCP) to counter and manage disasters in future.

CONSIDERATION OF CULTURAL HERITAGE IN GLOBAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION FRAMEWORKS: A QUALITATIVE SURVEY

The impact of the disaster on cultural heritage assets was prominent. Despite the fact that disaster risk reduction (DRR) frameworks were developed to aid nations in combating disaster risk, cultural heritage protection continues to receive little consideration in the overall guidelines. As a result,the previous researcher discovered that cultural heritage needs are frequently not prioritized in the overall disaster management plan. This paper examined the consideration of cultural heritage requirements in the global disaster management plan in light of this concern. A qualitative survey was conducted to investigate the obstacles to appropriately integrating DRR into heritage site management in disaster-prone regions. The 30 respondents agreed that cultural heritage sites should be included in the disaster risk reduction plan; however, the current disaster management practice has not adequately incorporated the heritage sites requirement into the plans and requires significant improvements to combat the disaster risk, particularly in the realm of climate change.It is recommended that future research identify the currently established heritage management instruments that have incorporated disaster risk reduction

Learning Material Organization for Disaster Resilient Villages

This study aims to express the best learning material organization for the Disaster Resilient Village Program (Program Desa Tangguh Bencana, DESTANA). It was delivered to the people of Pacitan Regency as a disaster-prone area. Various potential disasters exist in the area of Pacitan Regency. The learning material is organized in line with the revised Bloom’s Taxonomy, which applies six levels of thought processes. The learning process starts from a hierarchical structure that identifies lower-level thinking skills to higher levels of skills that are ready for operational implementation. The Lower Order Thinking Skills materials encompass understanding various disaster vulnerabilities based on geographical conditions, the nature of disaster threats and risks, participatory disaster management by the community, principles of evacuation planning, the role of Disaster Management Plans, the paradigm of disaster risk management, principles of the Early Warning System (EWS), the purpose of contingency plans, and principles of first aid in emergencies. The Higher Order Thinking Skills materials include the ability to measure indicators for disaster-resilient villages, establish volunteer working groups, design evacuation stages, develop Disaster Management Plans, Disaster Risk Management, Early Warning Systems (EWS), and Village Contingency Plans. The learning achievement is measured through community understanding and practice, the success of building a disaster response coordination structure, and activities in a disaster simulation. It is organized in seven discussion forums. The program resulted in significant achievements. The Pacitan Regency Government implemented the Disaster Resilient Village Program for the safety of its residents. Keywords: disaster, resilient village, learning material

A survey of train disasters and safety systems in Indian railways with a focus on signalling and telecommunications

Train is considered as one of the primary means of transport for the people across various regions in India. With a route length of around 68000 km, the Indian rail network is the fourth longest in the world and millions use its services daily. Despite having an extensive network and infrastructure, train accidents are not uncommon in India. The recent incident in Balasore district, Odisha, is the deadliest train disaster in over two decades. Nearly 295 people lost their lives and several hundred got injured in the triple train crash. This incident has brought attention to the safety measures and infrastructure of the country’s railway system. Although the Indian railway systems have seen significant development, the lack of a robust signalling system remains a major issue for such massive mishaps. This study discusses major train accidents with their causes and effects. Then, it discusses train disaster categories and the railway disaster management plan. It also provides a brief review of State-of-the-Art safety systems to prevent train accidents. Further, this study highlights the role of signalling and telecommunication systems in the safe and speedy movement of trains.

Co-producing disaster-resilient urban settlements in Ghana: Case of Ahensan, Kumasi

The occurrence of disasters, specifically flooding, has intensified over the past two decades in African cities with devastating impacts on people and properties. In Ghana, cities are beset by weak community and urban planning capacities to contend with climate challenges; exacerbating the vulnerabilities of the urban poor. Given that the urban poor, mostly in informal settlements, are largely excluded from official climate change adaptation and resilience measures, involving them in co-producing disaster risk management interventions to build resilience remains crucial. Premised on six agency interviews and four focus group discussions of residents in Ahensan, Kumasi, the research examined efforts aimed at co-producing integrative disaster risk governance towards building resilience to disaster risks. The findings showed that the dominant disaster in the settlement was flooding. Consequently, there are flood disaster management plans designed to identify and reduce risks. However, these plans do not involve residents in their preparation; rather, they are largely involved in the implementation of the plans. This has resulted in the lack of ownership of these plans by residents and their unwillingness to participate in their implementation. This study concludes that to ensure the ownership of strategies for disaster management towards resilience, residents should be involved at every stage of the process - from plan preparation through to its implementation.

YJMob100K: City-scale and longitudinal dataset of anonymized human mobility trajectories

Modeling and predicting human mobility trajectories in urban areas is an essential task for various applications including transportation modeling, disaster management, and urban planning. The recent availability of large-scale human movement data collected from mobile devices has enabled the development of complex human mobility prediction models. However, human mobility prediction methods are often trained and tested on different datasets, due to the lack of open-source large-scale human mobility datasets amid privacy concerns, posing a challenge towards conducting transparent performance comparisons between methods. To this end, we created an open-source, anonymized, metropolitan scale, and longitudinal (75 days) dataset of 100,000 individuals’ human mobility trajectories, using mobile phone location data provided by Yahoo Japan Corporation (currently renamed to LY Corporation), named YJMob100K. The location pings are spatially and temporally discretized, and the metropolitan area is undisclosed to protect users’ privacy. The 90-day period is composed of 75 days of business-as-usual and 15 days during an emergency, to test human mobility predictability during both normal and anomalous situations.

Assessing lava flow susceptibility at neighbouring volcanoes: Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo volcanoes, Virunga Volcanic Province

Assessing volcanic hazards in locations exposed to multiple central volcanoes requires to consider multiple potential eruption sources and their respective characteristics. While this is common practice in ashfall hazard assessment, this is generally not considered for topography-controlled volcanic flow processes. Yet, in volcanic areas with closely spaced volcanic systems, eruptions fed from several contrasted volcanic systems might threaten one given area. Considering the case of the Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes in the Virunga Volcanic Province (D.R.Congo), we present a method to produce a combined lava flow inundation susceptibility map that integrates both volcanoes. The spatial distribution of the probability of vent opening for the next eruption is separately constrained for both volcanoes based on the mapping of historical and pre-historical eruptive vents and fissures. The Q-LavHa lava flow probability model is then calibrated separately for each volcano, considering several historical lava flows of Nyamulagira (2004, 2006, 2010) and Nyiragongo (2002). The maps for the two volcanoes are thereafter integrated based on a weighted sum of both individual lava flow inundation probability maps, assuming historically-based relative eruption frequency of the two volcanoes. The accuracy of this probabilistic susceptibility map for the most active volcanic region in Africa was unfortunately validated by the May 2021 lava flow produced by Nyiragongo. This map was discussed and validated in 2019 with local scientists, as well as representatives of disaster management and urban planning institutions, but was not included in the regional contingency plan ahead of the 2021 eruption crisis. Updating the volcanic crisis and evacuation management plans with this lava flow probability map could contribute to reinforce risk awareness among the population and inform the future development of the city of Goma.

Collaborative Governance dalam Kesiapsiagaan Bencana Gunung Sinabung di Kabupaten Karo Provinsi Sumatera Utara

This article aims to explain collaborative governance in Mount Sinabung disaster preparedness, focusing on the collaborative process. The problem centers on the Disaster Resilient Village which was formed by the Karo Regency BPBD, but during its establishment from 2019 to date, it has not implemented the Destana program in disaster preparedness. To answer this problem, the Collaborative Governance theory of Chris Ansell and Alison Gash is used. Data were collected through interviews and triangulation, as well as a literature review, and analyzed qualitatively. This study concludes the collaborative process of the Runggu of the Karo District Government on disaster management and the Runggu tradition in the village. Building trust by forming Destana and the Destana program that is included in the village budget. Commit to a joint agreement to prepare the documents for the Village Disaster Management Plan and Village Contingency Plan. Then the document is understood and implemented together according to their respective roles. This resulted in medium-term results in Gung Pinto Village receiving a Village Resilience rating in the Primary category. The findings from this study were that of the 14 villages formed, only 1 village could carry out the collaboration process well. With recommendations for the need for an empowerment process in collaborative governance in disaster preparedness at Mount Sinabung in Karo Regency, North Sumatra Province.

СТРАТЕГІЇ ВИЗНАЧЕННЯ ОПТИМАЛЬНОЇ КІЛЬКОСТІ ВХІДНИХ ДАНИХ ДЛЯ РОЗПІЗНАВАННЯ ОБ’ЄКТІВ НА СУПУТНИКОВИХ ЗОБРАЖЕННЯХ

Satellite imagery recognition is a vital application of computer vision, with numerous potential use cases in fields such as disaster management, land use, and urban planning. This study aims to identify the optimal amount of input data required for training the neural network for satellite imagery recognition. To this end, a series of rigorous experiments are conducted to investigate the impact of input data quantity on several performance metrics, including accuracy, convergence, and model generalization. The findings reveal that an increase in input data quantity generally improves model performance up to a saturation point, beyond which further increases do not lead to significant improvements and may even lead to overfitting. The research proposes several strategies for identifying this saturation point and mitigating the effects of overfitting. The results gained from this research may help in designing more effective models for satellite imagery recognition.

Assessing road vulnerability in seismic conditions: a comprehensive study

Road infrastructure is indispensable for societal functionality, yet it is highly susceptible to the devastating impacts of seismic events. This paper focuses on enhancing the resilience of road systems by systematically identifying, quantifying, and assessing factors contributing to their vulnerability during earthquakes. The core objective of this study is to develop and validate a seismic vulnerability index for road sections, which aims to evaluate and classify the susceptibility of road infrastructure to earthquake-induced damage comprehensively. This systematic approach is pivotal for guiding effective mitigation strategies and prioritization efforts. To fulfill this objective, the study employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to introduce a novel methodology for calculating the seismic vulnerability index, incorporating various factors that influence road vulnerability. This method allows for the accurate classification of road sections into distinct levels of susceptibility, providing a solid foundation for implementing targeted interventions and enhancing road resilience. Further, the paper validates the theoretical model through several case studies, demonstrating the practical applicability and effectiveness of the seismic vulnerability index in real-world scenarios. Additionally, the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to simulate earthquake scenarios within an urban road network offers valuable insights into the potential seismic behavior of roads. These simulations are crucial for identifying critical areas that require intervention and for planning resilience-building efforts more effectively. By proposing a comprehensive framework that combines rigorous analysis, empirical validation, and advanced simulation techniques, this paper seeks to make a significant contribution to the field of infrastructure resilience. It aims to advance the understanding of road vulnerability in seismic conditions and supports the development of strategic approaches for enhancing the resilience of road infrastructure against earthquakes. Through the development and validation of a seismic vulnerability index, this study meets its primary objective, providing a valuable resource for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in disaster management and infrastructure planning.

Analysis of the Post-Cyclonic Physical Flood Susceptibility and Changes of Mangrove Forest Area Using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Process and Geospatial Analysis in Indian Sundarbans

Tropical cyclones, one of the most extreme and destructive meteorological incidents, cause extensive damage to lives and livelihoods worldwide. This study utilized remotely sensed data along with multi-criteria decision-making, geospatial techniques, and major cyclonic events Aila, Amphan, and Yaas to identify the changes in the vulnerability of cyclone-induced floods in the 19 community development blocks of Indian Sundarbans in the years 2009–2010, 2020–2021, and 2021–2022 (the post-cyclonic timespan). The Sundarbans are a distinctive bioclimatic region located in a characteristic geographical setting along the West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts. In this area, several cyclonic storms had an impact between 2009 and 2022. Using the variables NDVI, MNDWI, NDMI, NDBI, BSI, and NDTI, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Thermal Infrared Sensor, Resourcesat LISS-III, and AWiFS data were primarily utilized to map the cyclonic flood-effective zones in the research area. The findings indicated that the coastline, which was most impacted by tropical storms, has significant physical susceptibility to floods, as determined by the AHP-weighted overlay analysis. Significant positive relationships (p < 0.05, n = 19 administrative units) were observed between mangrove damage, NDFI, and physical flood susceptibility indicators. Mangrove damage increased with an increase in the flood index, and vice versa. To mitigate the consequences and impacts of the vulnerability of cyclonic events, subsequent flood occurrences, and mangrove damage in the Sundarbans, a ground-level implementation of disaster management plans proposed by the associated state government, integrated measures of cyclone forecasting, mangrove plantation, coastal conservation, flood preparedness, mitigation, and management by the Sundarban Development Board are appreciably recommended.

Disaster management - preparation and planning for acute care facilities.

Both human-derived and naturally-occurring disasters stress the surge capacity of health systems and acute care facilities. In this article, we review recent literature related to having a disaster plan, facility planning principles, institutional and team preparedness, the concept of surge capacity, simulation exercises and advantages and disadvantages of each. Evidence suggests that every institution should have a disaster plan and a dedicated team responsible for updating this plan. The disaster plan must be people-oriented and incorporate different perspectives and opinions so that all stakeholders feel included and can contribute to a joint response. Simulation exercises are fundamental for preparation so that the team functions seamlessly in uncommon times when disaster management transitions from a theoretical plan to one that is executed in real time. Notably, however, there are significantly different realities related to disaster management between countries and even within the same country or region. Unfortunately, key stakeholders such as hospital administration, board of directors and investors often do not believe they have any responsibility related to disaster management planning or response. Additionally, while a disaster plan often exists within an institution, it is frequently not well known or understood by many stakeholders. Communication, simple plans and well defined roles are some of the most important characteristics of a successful response. In extreme circumstances, adapting civilian facilities to manage high-volume warfare-related injuries may be adopted, but the consequences of this approach for routine healthcare within a system can be devastating. Disaster management requires careful planning with input from multiple stakeholders and a plan that is frequently updated with repeated preparation to ensure the team is ready when a disaster occurs. Close communication as well as clearly defined roles are critical to success when transitioning from preparation to activation and execution of a disaster response.

Gender Equality, Disability and Social Inclusion Approach to Disaster Management Policy: The Case of the Bali Disaster Response Authority

This article describes the application of the GEDSI (Gender Equality, Disability, and Social Inclusion) approach to disaster management policies with special reference to the Province of Bali. The province, which frequently experiences natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and floods, recognizes the need to pay attention to gender differences, disabilities and social inclusion in all aspects of disaster management. The GEDSI approach promotes active participation and an equal role for all community members in dealing with disasters. The findings show that Bali is committed to ensuring equal access to information, protection and disaster management services for vulnerable groups. It seeks to integrate a gender perspective in disaster management planning, including ensuring women's participation in decision-making and their involvement in policy implementation. In addition, the GEDSI approach also emphasizes social inclusion and the needs of people with disabilities. Bali seeks to remove physical and social barriers that may impede the participation and accessibility of persons with disabilities during disasters. Disabled persons-friendly facilities and services are provided, and disability groups are involved in policy planning and evaluation. With the GEDSI approach, disaster management in Bali can be inclusive and responsive to the needs of all individuals. This approach will ensure equity, respect human rights and enhance sustainability in the face of natural disasters.

Remote sensing perspective in exploring the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and post-disaster recovery of ecological environment quality, a case study of the 2010 Ms7.1 Yushu earthquake

Natural hazards usually cause heavy casualties and vast economic losses, as well as severe damage to the ecological environment. Quantitative and scientific evaluations of the ecological environment quality (EEQ) and its recovery trend after hazards can provide valuable insights for disaster risk reductions. This study takes the 2010 Ms7.1 Yushu earthquake as an example to explore the spatiotemporal changes and driving mechanisms of EEQ before and after the earthquake using remote sensing and GIScience. First, the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data was selected to establish the remote sensing based ecological index (RSEI). Then, we analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of Yushu’s EEQ from 2001 to 2020 and explored spatial autocorrelation relationships. Last, the driving mechanism of EEQ recovery in Yushu was analyzed using the GeoDetector model. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) From the perspective of the RSEI time series, the EEQ in Yushu County was strongly negatively affected during the earthquake and recovered well after the earthquake. (2) Based on a spatial distribution analysis, it can be observed that the regions in Yushu with relatively high EEQ are primarily concentrated in the central and southern areas. Conversely, the northwestern and southeastern areas display relatively lower quality. Moreover, the EEQ in Yushu County has a strong correlation and clustering, as evidenced by Moran’s I value exceeding 0.7 over the years. (3) Based on the GeoDetector results, elevation and population were found to be the key driving factors affecting changes in post-disaster EEQ. The interaction between elevation and slope plays the most critical role in the process of ecological recovery. This study provides a theoretical basis for the evolution of the post-disaster ecological environment in Yushu County and helps decision-makers better balance the relationship between social development and environmental protection in disaster management and urban planning. It also provides useful reference and guidance for future ecological protection and recovery under similar disasters.

Assessing Social Vulnerability to Coastal Hazards: A Case Study of Bandar Lampung City Coastal Area

Bandar Lampung City’s coastal area is highly susceptible to coastal hazards due to its location within the subduction zone of the Indo-Australian and Eurasian tectonic plates. Additionally, the presence of the Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Strait further increases the vulnerability of the city’s coast to natural disasters. This study analyses the current social vulnerability in the coastal area of Bandar Lampung City. The aim is to provide a starting point for disaster management and policy planning in the city. To determine the level of social vulnerability in the coastal area of Bandar Lampung City, social vulnerability mapping is conducted by overlaying four indices: population, population density, sex ratio, and dependency ratio. The data indicates that there is significant variation in the level of social vulnerability among the coastal areas of Bandar Lampung City. Specifically, 8 out of 25 villages in the coastal area of Bandar Lampung City exhibit high levels of social vulnerability. The villages of Bumi Waras, Pesawahan, and Keteguhan have the highest levels of social vulnerability in the coastal area of Bandar Lampung City. As revealed by this study, the indicators of population size and dependency ratio have the most significant impact on the level of social vulnerability. These findings are expected to provide valuable input to stakeholders in their efforts to reduce social vulnerability in coastal areas.