Development Of Mortgage Market Research Articles

Аналіз іпотечного ринку: вітчизняний та іноземний досвід

In the conditions of an economic crisis, the activation of economic activity through mortgage lending becomes crucial, and the study of the development of the mortgage market in the world is necessary for a comprehensive understanding of its impact on social, economic, and financial growth. It is also essential for determining optimal management strategies for the housing sector in a specific country. The article aims to substantiate the features of the functioning of the mortgage market in the world and in Ukraine. Investigating the peculiarities of domestic and foreign mortgage markets, the authors used a statistical method to analyze the mortgage market and government mortgage credit programs in Ukraine and worldwide. Empirical evidence in the research includes data from the Ukrainian Financial Housing Company, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, and the Diya platform, presented using a graphical method. Abstraction, analysis, and synthesis methods formed the basis for developing recommendations for improving government programs for developing the mortgage market for housing in the world and in Ukraine. The dynamics of mortgage loans issued in Ukraine for 2019–2022 indicate a decline in mortgage loan issuance due to unstable political and economic situations. It was revealed that the restoration of mortgage lending in Ukraine is facilitated by the Ukrainian government's eOselya program, which is aimed at providing citizens with affordable housing. The specifics of mortgage lending in different countries worldwide are disclosed. The overall trend of diversity in mortgage lending conditions in the European Union indicates significant differences in approaches to housing loans in different countries. However, some positive characteristics of the mortgage market development in the EU can serve as valuable experience for reforming Ukraine's national mortgage lending market. Among them are financial and investment capacities, low cost of loans, socio-legal protection, macroeconomic stability, transparency, informational clarity, and unified regulatory approaches.

Developing Housing Finance in Pakistan – Challenges and Opportunities

Expanding home-ownership poses a fundament financial challenge arising out of the long-term nature of the asset, which calls for the development of institutions and markets to facilitate the flow of long-term funds. Development of the secondary mortgage market would alleviate classical maturity mismatch and liquidity issues. The public sector can provide an enabling environment with sound macroeconomic policies, corporate governance, rule of law, and enforceability of contracts. This study draws policy implications using the empirical evidence on the determinants of mortgage depth and penetration across countries. A large part of the variation in these two dimensions across countries is explained by the level of their financial development. Development of long-term sources of funds intermediated through specialized institutions seems particularly important, as we find that the development of pension funds, which are a source of long-term funding, is strongly associated with mortgage market development. Monetary and macro-economic stability, as indicated by a low and stable rate of inflation, appears to be a strong predictor of mortgage market development. We also detect a positive relationship between the degree of competition in the financial sector and mortgage market development.

ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL MORTGAGE INEQUALITY: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF METHODS AND RESULTS

The article focuses on the study of the problems of assessing regional mortgage inequality in the Russian Federation. Based on an analysis of the experience of Russian and foreign economists and regionalists in the field of spatial inequality, possible approaches to assessing the disproportions in the regional mortgage market development are investigated. Calculations were carried out using the differentiation coefficient for extreme values of regions, fund coefficient for extreme groups of regions, log-normal distribution according to the 90/10 method, variation coefficient, Lorentz concentration coefficient and Gini index, Theil coefficient, as well as a differential indicator (author's development) of the development level of the housing mortgage lending system (HML) in the region and some other indicators. An economic interpretation of the calculation results is given. The significant variability of the various methods of estimation results is shown. On the basis of a comparative analysis of the approaches and their results, a substantiated method for assessing regional mortgage inequality was carried out. Statistical methods, including multivariate analysis, as well as expert assessment, were used as the methodological base of scientific research. The theoretical and practical significance of the study lies in substantiating the expediency of using the differential indicator proposed by the authors, characterizing the development level of the HML system in specific regions, to solve the problems of assessing the mortgage inequality of Russian subjects.

Assessment of the level of Ukrainian mortgage market development

The methodology of comparative assessment of the mortgage market is proposed. The study of the Ukrainian mortgage market was conducted in three areas: the preconditions for the development of the mortgage market, the current situation in the mortgage market, and the risks in the mortgage market. The integrated coefficient of the level of development of the mortgage market in Ukraine is calculated. It is substantiated that the level of the Ukrainian mortgage market is in an embryonic state in comparison with the corresponding EU market. The object of study is the mortgage market of Ukraine. The subject of the study is the methodological principles of mortgage market. The study of the mortgage market as a financial mechanism for implementing the strategy of technological development of the national economy contributes to the understanding of the areas of efforts to overcome socio-economic problems in the country. The purpose of this article is to carry out a comparative assessment of the mortgage market of Ukraine. To achieve this goal were used: system-parametric approach - to the scientific knowledge of the mortgage market, which allowed to integrate the preconditions of development, potential and risks of the mortgage market; a comparative analysis of the assessment of the Ukrainian mortgage market, which helped to determine the level of development of the national mortgage market in comparison with the EU. The practical significance of the results is that the proposed valuation method can be used to rank both banks and national mortgage markets of other countries. Conclusions. The assessment of the preconditions demonstrated the high responsibility of Ukrainian mortgage borrowers. The potential for mortgage capital in Ukraine exceeds the European one almost three times. The biggest risk of mortgage market for housing construction in Ukraine is the problem with unfinished projects. The development of mortgage market in Ukraine needs legislative support in the direction of changing the status of property rights, state support in guaranteeing loans and resolving issues of unfinished projects, finding alternative sources of financing.

Sustainable Development of the Mortgage Market in Azerbaijan: Commercial Risks of Housing Construction, Social Vision, and State Influence

The purpose of this study is to formulate a model for sustainable development of the mortgage market in Azerbaijan, taking into account commercial risks of housing construction, the risks of the construction industry, social visions of mortgages, state pressure, and support. The following five key research stages can be distinguished. Namely, identification of commercial risks of housing construction based on a survey; evaluation of the effectiveness of risk diversification strategy; determination of the social vision of a mortgage; substantiating the main directions of state pressure and support for mortgage market development; and creation of a model for sustainable development of the mortgage market in Azerbaijan. At the same time, it is proposed to use a methodological approach to assessing the effectiveness of the model based on the construction of the multivariate linear regression equation. The inclusive model of sustainable development of the mortgage market in Azerbaijan provides for the formation of a favorable institutional environment. Given the selected modules, forecasting the effectiveness of the proposed inclusive model demonstrates its effectiveness in the direction of enhancing mortgage lending based on interest rate regulation taking into account the benefits of green housing construction.

MORTGAGE AS A TOOL FOR ADDRESSING HOUSING NEEDS

Mortgage lending is investigated as an effective tool for solving residential problems of the country’s population. The advantages and disadvantages of types of mortgage loans and models of the mortgage market are considered. The German (one-tier) model and the American (two-tier) model of the mortgage market are characterized. Conclusions have been made regarding the state of mortgage lending in European Union countries. The interest rates on mortgages in the countries of the world are analyzed and differences of mortgage lending are revealed in some of them. An estimation of the state of mortgage lending in Ukraine is given. The issue of state support to the mortgage sector is considered, which will facilitate the intensification of investment activity in this area and housing construction. The socio-economic motives of effective solution of the housing problem of residents of the Vinnytsia region were revealed, the analysis of the domestic normative-legal base and application of its norms in practice were carried out. Study of foreign experience has provided an opportunity to highlight different methods by which the state regulates relations in the process of mortgage lending. The peculiarities of provision of mortgage loans to the citizens of the country are highlighted and ways of further development of mortgage lending in Ukraine are elucidated, which can timely and adequately respond to external and internal challenges and threats, and strengthen the economic security of the state. The ways of further development of mortgage lending in Ukraine are suggested: development of the strategy of mortgage market development taking into account foreign experience, introduction of a mortgage insurance system, stimulating the population to mortgage and increasing the amount of social programs, creating of a quality bail on mortgage loans, securitization of the mortgage lending market, reduction of interest rates on mortgages etc.

The Housing Cycle: What Role for Mortgage Market Development and Housing Finance?

We use duration analysis to assess the impact of securitization, mortgage sector liberalization and government involvement in housing finance on the length of housing booms, busts and normal times in a panel of 20 OECD countries over the period 1970Q1-2015Q4. Our results reveal that a move towards a more liberalized mortgage sector is associated with longer housing booms, while an increase in securitization is linked with shorter housing busts. They also show that the length of housing booms and busts is particularly sensitive to housing finance characteristics, but that does not seem to be the case for normal times. Additionally, government support measures do not necessarily cushion against housing busts. A careful assessment of their distributional impact, as well as their effect on the trade-off between liquidity and guarantee/loan provision, is also required to prevent (longer) housing booms. All in all, housing finance regulation may prove especially relevant to shield against the damaging effects of housing busts and the financial stability risks associated with housing booms. Monetary policy can also be an important complement to macro-prudential policies. Finally, government participation in housing finance should be designed in a way that avoids an undesirable amplification of house price fluctuations.

Economic and legal component of mortgage market development in Ukraine

The development of the economic and legal component of the mortgage lending system in Ukraine is traced. It was determined that the adoption of the Law of Ukraine «On Property» was the first step towards the formation of the mortgage market in the country. The mortgage system is studied as a factor influencing the accumulation of free funds, their redistribution and risk reduction. The role of mortgage lending in solving socio-economic problems of the country is considered. The necessity of studying the experience of other countries and taking into account national peculiarities for effective development of the mortgage system in Ukraine is substantiated. It was emphasized that the level of development of the mortgage lending market shows the maturity of the financial system development and the degree of confidence of the population of the country in the financial and credit system. The subject of the study is evolution of the economic-legal component of the mortgage market in Ukraine. The purpose of the work is to substantiate the logic of the economic and legal aspect of the formation and development of the system of mortgage lending in Ukraine. To achieve the goal, the system approach was used - to integrate the methodology of scientific knowledge of the history of the development of the financial system in Ukraine as part of the world financial system, which made it possible to establish the need to take into account world experience, current problems and taking into account national specificity; logical-critical analysis - in determining the sequence and extent of the importance of separate legal acts in Ukraine. The practical significance of the results is the possibility of their use to improve the theoretical basis of the formation of the system of mortgage lending in Ukraine. Conclusions. 1) The modern market of mortgage lending is the result of a long, gradual, logical development of the financial market; 2) The level of development of the mortgage lending market indicates the maturity of the financial system and the degree of confidence of the population of the country in the financial and credit system; 3) For a long historical period, the Ukrainian lands belonged to different state formations; accordingly, the laws and the procedure for the formation of the financial system changed, which contributed to its «lagging» in development from the western countries; 4) The first step in shaping the system of mortgage lending in independent Ukraine was the adoption of the Law of Ukraine «On Property», because private property issues are the cornerstone of the country's mortgage system; 5) Mortgage should become an effective financial mechanism that overcomes the problem of accumulation of financial resources of our country in conditions of high inflation; will help to solve the problem of introduction of technological innovations, modernization of agriculture, industrialization of industry, solving chronic and large-scale problems of residential unfinished projects.

Сучасні особливості розвитку ринку іпотеки в європейських країнах: уроки для України

Сучасні особливості розвитку ринку іпотеки в європейських країнах: уроки для України

Становление и развитие рынка ипотечного кредитования в России

Становление и развитие рынка ипотечного кредитования в России

Is There a Demand for Reverse Mortgages in China? Evidence from Two Online Surveys

Reverse mortgages provide an alternative source of retirement funding by allowing older homeowners to borrow against their home. However, a recent pilot program of reserve mortgage products in several large Chinese cities saw almost no take up. To ascertain the demand for reverse mortgages in China, we conduct and analyze two online surveys that focus respectively on homeowners aged 45-65 as potential purchasers, and on adult children in the 20-49 age group representing children of potential purchasers. We address the reported shortcomings of the pilot reverse mortgage product by testing an improved product design presented in a clear and comprehensive format. In stark contrast, we find that 89% of older Chinese homeowners would be interested in this new reverse mortgage product, and 84% of adult children would recommend such a product to their parents. Participants in both surveys reported that they would use the reverse mortgage payments to fund a more comfortable retirement and to pay for better medical treatments and aged care services. Respondents' interest in reverse mortgages was associated with their familiarity and understanding of the product, and its perceived potential to address liquidity constraints in retirement. Health status, aged care preferences and proxies for intergenerational links were also important. Our results are contrary to the common perception of intergenerational expectations of wealth transfer in China, and provide new evidence in support of the potential development of China's reverse mortgage market.

Possibility of introducing reverse mortgage product in Malaysia

PurposeThe year 2020 heralds a landmark in Malaysia’s demographic and economic landscape, as the country is expected to become an ageing country, as well as aspiring of becoming a high-income country. The elderly persons are, however, reported to be vulnerable to the risk of financial insecurity in old age, which if not addressed can affect the country’s effort of accomplishing the Vision 2020 goal of becoming a high-income nation. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the factors that are capable of affecting the development of reverse mortgage market in Malaysia from the perspective of the financial service professionals.Design/methodology/approachThe study is a qualitative design that involves the use of semi-structured questionnaire as data collection strategy. A total number of nine participants were selected for the interview using critical case sample scheme based on purposive sampling strategy.FindingsThe findings reveal that various economic, socio-demographic, behavioural and political/institutional factors would impose varying degrees of influence on reverse mortgage market in Malaysia.Originality/valueThe study is expected to spur discussion among stakeholders on the practicability of using reverse mortgage as alternative source of old-age financing in Malaysia.

GRAVITATIONAL MODELS IN THE MORTGAGE MARKET OF RUSSIA

Research purpose. One of the ways to improve the living conditions of Russians is the development of the mortgage market. The peculiarity of the mortgage market in Russia is that credit institutions, located in the Central Federal District provide more than 90% of the volume of mortgage loans in rubles, and resident individuals - borrowers from other federal districts, receive most of these loans. Thus, the Central Federal District is the center of attraction of borrowers and determines the main trends in the mortgage market. In addition, if still to consider that migration flows have the developed tendency in a section of federal districts, then there is a question of a possibility to create the gravitational model, the obtained mortgage loans borrowers of the explored federal districts in the center of attraction, this is the research purpose. Materials and methods. The study was conducted, based on official state statistics - ROSSTAT and the Bank of Russia, using correlation regression analysis and adaptive prediction methods. Analysis of migration indicators by federal districts revealed the features that led to the construction of three gravitational models. Results. The first gravitational model is suitable for borrowers of four federal districts: Northwestern, Southern, Far Eastern and North-Caucasian regions. The second gravitational model is under the first type and is typical for the Volga Federal District, which has its own specifics. The third model, which determines the volume of mortgage loans in rubles, obtained by borrowers of the Siberian and Ural Federal Districts, for these districts the gravitational constant of the models turned out to be almost the same that is approximately equal to 11, which indicates the same situation, both on the mortgage market and migration sentiments. In the paper, based on the constructed gravitational models of the mortgage market of the Central Federal District, a forecast of the volume of mortgages was given received in both the context of federal districts and the entire Russian mortgage market for 2018, which required the construction of forecast models for migration indicators. The construction of gravitational models was carried out based on indicators, taken in dynamics up to 2016 inclusive. Therefore, comparing the forecast with its implementation in 2017, the quality of the forecast of the constructed models was evaluated, which showed good results. Conclusion. In Central Federal District, more than a half of credit institutions - 52% are concentrated. They issue the main volume of all mortgage-housing loans in the country - 94%. The constructed gravitational models, considering the migration processes, give an answer to the question of the volumes of development of the primary mortgage market, and therefore allow assessing the risks and opportunities for the development of the secondary mortgage market.

Prospects of using security mechanism in the process of rehabili-tation the building sphere in Ukraine

In this article, securitization was investigated as one of the most important sources of financing for the construction of residential real estate in Ukraine. The main purpose of the article is to explore ways to refinance mortgage loans used in the world practice for the rehabilitation the building sphere in residential real estate and to identify ways of expanding and cheapening them. The authors have found that a depository financing model uses on the Ukrainian mortgage market has significantly reduced the possibilities for its development and makes the mortgage expensive. Also, the models of the European and American mortgage markets were compared, identified the advantages and disadvantages of each model. And the possibility of using these models in Ukraine was considered. The current state of the mortgage market in Ukraine was examined. In addition, the trend of mortgage market development in a pre-crisis and post-crisis period was demonstrated in this article. Finally, the following conclusion was drawn: in order to increase the availability of mortgage loans and to rehabilitation the construction sphere, it is necessary to introduce mechanisms for refinancing mortgage loans.

Heterogeneous Mortgage Markets: Implications for Business Cycles and Welfare in the EMU

AbstractThis paper evaluates business cycle effects of asymmetric cross-country mortgage market developments in a monetary union. By employing a two-country New Keynesian DSGE model with collateral constraints tied to housing values, we show that a change in institutional characteristics of mortgage markets, such as the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, is an important driver of asymmetric developments in housing markets and economic activity. Our analysis suggests that the home country where credit standards are lax booms, while the rest of European Monetary Union faces a negative output gap. Overall welfare is lower if LTV ratios are higher.

Developments of Russian Mortgage and Housing Markets

The article is devoted to the role of the state in the housing market in Russia. The main role of the Government is to develop a sustainable and efficient housing market and to ensure the access of households to affordable decent housing. To achieve this goal by developing mortgage market the Government established in 1997 special agency - The Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending. The main objective of the Agency is to implement governmental programs for providing affordable housing and ensuring improvement of housing conditions for the population in compliance with the priority national project Affordable and Comfortable Housing for Russian Citizens. The goal of the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending is to establish conditions so that all Russian citizens had equal opportunities for getting a mortgage loan, regardless of their social status, education, family composition, income, occupation, religion, place of residence or registration. A residential mortgage loan provided in accordance with AHML’s standards is available for all categories of people, is good value for money and easy to arrange. AHML pays particular attention to fostering the mortgage market in the regions where the level of per capita income is lower than the national average, and the housing and financial markets are underdeveloped. The main goals, tasks, principles of activities will be outlined in the article. We will provide a brief history of mortgage lending sector in Russia and investigate the role of AHML in development of mortgage market. In addition we will look at the connections between housing and mortgage markets outlining the effects of changes in legislation and the strategy of development of mortgage lending in Russia, including AHML Group Strategy. Finally, we will describe the current approaches to construction of house price indexes and analyze its main drawbacks.

Рынок ипотечного кредитования и страхования в РФ: современные тенденции развития

The article is focused on analysis of trends in the development of the mortgage and insurance market in the period from 2007 to 2014. The article presents the Russian and international approaches to define the essence of mortgage insurance, reveals goals of mortgage system functioning, analyzes key indicators of mortgage market development and identified factors influencing its development.

Prediction of Mortgage Market Development through Factors Obtained in a Scoring Model

Prediction of Mortgage Market Development through Factors Obtained in a Scoring Model

Another Determinant of Household Leverage: Evidence from Japan's Mortgage Loan Data

AbstractWe investigate determinants of household leverage in Japan, which did not experience the sharp rise in real estate prices and dramatic securitized mortgage market developments in the 2000s, and prove that these determinants are not universal. We employ household sample data collected during 2001–2010 by the Japan Housing Finance Agency and the Nikkei NEEDs Radar Financial Survey, totaling to 28,561 samples. We find that the degree of household interest rate risk preference, which proxies the household constitutional and behavioral factors including risk tolerance, positively relates to the household debt to income ratio. Further, as regards residential mortgage loans, these interest rate risk‐preferring households buy higher‐priced houses relative to their income, hold fewer financial assets, and tend to be headed by young males. We also find similarities between household mortgage debt determinants in Japan and the United States: the degree of regional bank market competition and the state of bank management soundness influence the aggressiveness of the residential mortgage loan business.

Potekli Konut Finansmann Sisteminin Geliime Kooullarr: TTrkiye in Ampirik Bir Analiz (Conditions of Mortgage Market Development: A Critical Emprical Review for Turkey)

Turkish Abstract: Calismamizda, makroekonomik degiskenlerin ulkemizdeki konut kredisi hacmi uzerindeki dinamik etkileri (2005:01)-(2011:09) donemi icin analiz edilmektedir. Degiskenler arasindaki uzun/kisa donemli iliskilerin arastirilmasinda, esbutunlesme testi/vektor hata duzeltme modeli kullanilmistir. Ayrica vektor-otoregresyon, Granger nedensellik testleri, varyans ayristirmasi, etki-tepki analizleri uygulanmistir. Inceleme sonucunda, konut kredisi hacminin uzun donem denge denkleminde, konut kredisi reel faiz orani ile ters yonlu, para politikalari (arzi)/finansal servet (M2), yapi kullanma izin belgelerine gore bina yuz olcumu ve kisi basina reel GSYIH ile dogrusal yonlu iliskili oldugu belirlenmistir. Etki-tepki ve varyans ayristirmasi analizlerinde, konut kredisi hacminde ortaya cikan degisimlerin aciklanmasinda, konut kredisi disindaki en etkili degiskenler, sirasiyla yapi kullanma izin belgeleri, konut kredisi reel faiz orani, kisi basina reel GSYIH ve M2 olarak belirlenmistir. Soz konusu bulgular ulkemizdeki ipotekli konut finansmani sisteminin gelisme kosullarinin konut talebi, piyasadaki faaliyet duzeyi, kredi maliyetleri ve finansal istikrar gibi klasik kosullarin yani sira, bolusum sorunlarinin cozulmesi gibi karmasik sosyo-ekonomik/politik sureclerle de iliskili olabilecegini ortaya koymaktadir.English Abstract: This paper aims to define conditions of mortgage market development in Turkey in a period of (2005:01)-(2011:09) by defining dynamic causal relationships between volume of housing credit and macroeconomic indicators. We employ VAR, cointegration analysis, VECM, Granger causality tests, impulse-response functions and variance decomposition models. In the long term equation, real interest rate variable is negatively and residential buildings floor area according to occupancy permits, real GDP per person and monetary aggregate/financial wealth (M2) variables are positively cointegrated with housing credit. According to impulse-response/variance decomposition findings, the most effective variables on housing credit are consecutively defined as occupancy permits, real interest rate, real GDP per person and M2. Outcome of models also implies that development of mortgage market may be also related to complex socio-economic/politic processes such as solving income inequalities besides conventional conditions involving financial stability, mortgage costs, housing demand and housing market activity level.