Accurate prediction of Earth orientation parameters (EOPs) is critical for astro-geodynamics, high-precision space navigation, and positioning. However, the current model prediction accuracy for EOPs is significantly lower than the geodetic technical solutions, which can adversely affect certain high-precision real-time users. Deep learning neural networks, precisely one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (1DCNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) can automatically learn arbitrary complex mappings from inputs to outputs and support multiple inputs and outputs. These are powerful features that offer a lot of promise for time series forecasting, which makes this method suitable to predict simultaneously the Earth rotation parameters (ERP). The computational strategy follows multiple steps. First, using the singular spectrum analysis SSA, the deterministic time-varying signal of the ERP time series can be more precisely and reasonably detected and modeled. Then the reconstructed series and its corresponding residuals are used for 1DCNN training and prediction. However, first, we develop a multivariate multi-step 1DCNN model with a multi-output strategy using three different scenarios including the ocean angular momentum (OAM), atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), and hydrological angular momentum (HAM), to predict both the deterministic and the stochastic part for (PMx, PMy) components of PM. Then the best case with fewer errors is chosen to predict the ERP at the same time in the short term. The results of 3 years of prediction experiments based on the EOP 14 C04 series using 1DCNN are compared with LSTM and show that the proposed model can predict both the deterministic and the stochastic parts for the three parameters at the same time with significant improvements in the ERP for short-term prediction. Compared with alternative methods analyzed in the Second EOP Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC), the 1DCNN model achieves comparable or even better results: 0.26 mas for PMx, 0.28 mas for PMy, and 0.022 ms for LOD on the first day of prediction, and 1.93 mas for PMx, 1.28 mas for PMy, and 0.13 ms for LOD for the last day of prediction horizon.Graphical abstract
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