Determination Of Monetary Policy Research Articles

Dynamics effect of volatility index, interest rates, and commodity prices on Indonesian bond yields

Several factors influence the movements and dynamics of bond yields in financial markets. The determination of monetary policy, specifically the decisions regarding interest rates made by central banks, is a critical factor. Moreover, bond yields can be influenced by various factors such as geopolitical events, financial volatility, market sentiment, and investor risk appetite. These factors can impact the demand and supply dynamics in bond markets. This research aims to analyze the influence of Interest Rates, IDR to USD Exchange Rates, Volatility Index (VIX), Gold and Oil Prices on Bond Yields in Indonesia. The data used in this research is secondary data, which consists of time series data from 2019-2023. This research investigates the impact of financial and commodity prices on bond yields in Indonesia by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to examine both the long-run correlation and short-run effect. Empirical results found that Interest Rate, Volatility Index (VIX), and Oil Prices have a significant positive influence. Meanwhile, the Gold Price variable has a significant negative influence. This research has several crucial policy implications for investors concerning the national monetary policy, exchange rate fluctuation, and global volatility index to create profitable and sustainable portfolio strategies. Moreover, investment managers and investors should be concerned about the global commodities prices that will affect bond yield performances. This research contributes to the recent literature presenting causal relations of global volatility index (VIX) on Indonesian bond yield.

Determinants of Monetary Policy: An Application of Regime Switching Model

The monetary policy of India has undergone substantial changes since 2013, particularly after taper tantrum episodes. The RBI moved from WPI to CPI for measuring inflation. Monetary policy anchoring shifted from a multiple-indicator approach (MIA) to flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in 2016 to deal with the aftermath of the global financial crisis. In this context, the study examined whether there was a significant shift in the monetary policy regime using a non-linear model (Markov Switching-Vector Autoregression Model) covering monthly data from 2013 to 2020. The study also investigated the role of the inflation rate, oil price, growth rate, and exchange rate in influencing monetary policy in India. The study found no change in the RBI monetary policy regime, and monetary policy remained biased towards controlling the inflation rate.

A new test for optimum currency area with an application to the Central and Eastern European countries

ABSTRACT This research introduces a new test for optimum currency area that is based on synchronization of monetary policy recommendations. The main advantage over the more traditional synchronization of business cycles is that it takes into account two known determinants of monetary policy: inflation and the output gap. As an application, the test is applied to the EU economies with a particular focus on the Central and Eastern European Countries. Some of these countries have recently joined the euro area, some are the members of ERM II, and the rest are debating whether to fulfill the convergence criteria of adopting the euro. The main findings are that within the last few years the current non-euro area members (with the exception of Bulgaria and Romania) fit the euro area as well as the core euro area countries.

A New Test for Optimum Currency Area with an Application to the Central and Eastern European Countries

This research introduces a new test for optimum currency area that is based on synchronization of monetary policy recommendations. The main advantage over the more traditional synchronization of business cycles is that it takes into account two known determinants of monetary policy: inflation and the output gap. As an application, the test is applied to the EU economies with a particular focus on the Central and Eastern European Countries. Some of these countries have recently joined the euro area, and the rest are debating whether to fulfill the convergence criteria of adopting the euro. The main findings are that within the last few years the current non-euro area members (with the exception of Bulgaria and Romania) fit the euro area as well as the core euro area countries.

Estimating Taylor Type Rule for India's Monetary Policy using ARDL Approach to Co-integration

In an open economic environment, economies generally experienced economic instability emerging out of internal and external factors. Like other central banks ’apparently following discretionary policy rule corresponding to fluctuations in the economy, Reserve Bank of India has also been not less than anyone in responding frequently to different economic situations by changing key interest rates those it has under its privilege. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model of co-integration, this paper decisively estimates exchange rate augmented Taylor Type rule for India's monetary policy and examined its short-run and long-run behaviour with respect to the output gap, inflation gap and exchange rate over the period from 2001Q1 to 2012Q4. Estimation results revealed that output gap, inflation gap and exchange rate are the important determinants of monetary policy in India. Amongst these three, inflation and output gap found to be matter more for RBI than exchange rate in short-run, but the situation is vice-versa in long-run. The study also asserts that Exchange Rate Augmented Taylor Type rule sufficiently explains the behaviour of RBI's monetary policy.

Monetary policy responses to the exchange rate: Empirical evidence from the ECB

The exchange rate is an important part of the transmission mechanism in the determination of monetary policy because movements in the exchange rate have significant effect on the macroeconomy. It can be difficult to measure the reaction of monetary policy to the movements of the exchange rate, due to the simultaneous response of monetary policy to the exchange rate and the possibility that both variables respond to several other variables. This study addresses these problems by using an identification method based on the heteroscedasticity in the high-frequency data. The results in this paper suggest that the ECB systematically responds to exchange rate movements but that quantitative effects are small. Such a significant but small reaction coefficient seems consistent with the hypothesis that the central banks do not target the fluctuations in the exchange rate but consider them only to the extent they impact on the expected inflation and output path.

ECB Policy Response to the Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate

The exchange rate is an important part of the transmission mechanism in the determination of monetary policy because movements in the exchange rate have significant effect on the macroeconomy. It can be difficult to measure the reaction of monetary policy to the movements of the exchange rate, due to the simultaneous response of monetary policy to the exchange rate and the possibility that both variables respond to several other variables. This study addresses these problems by using an identification method based on the heteroscedasticity in the high-frequency data. The results in this paper suggest that the ECB systematically responds to exchange rate movements but that quantitative effects are small. Such a significant but small reaction coefficient seems consistent with the hypothesis that the central banks do not target the fluctuations in the exchange rate but consider them only to the extent they impact on the expected inflation and output path.

Did the Bank of Mexico follow a systematic behaviour in its transition to an inflation targeting regime?

The main determinants of monetary policy in Mexico are analysed using conventional reaction functions to evaluate the gradual implementation of inflation targeting (IT) to achieve low and stable rates of inflation. In particular, we look at how the evolution of the inflation, growth and movements in exchange rates have conditioned the decisions of monetary policy taken by the central bank in Mexico for the period 1996 to 2010. Our results show in a systematic way that exchange-rate variations played a major role until 2000 (disinflation period) when IT was explicitly adopted and growth and inflation became the predominant variables with this new monetary regime. We conclude that IT in Mexico has effectively contributed to gain a nominal anchor for monetary policy.

Financial Conditions Index in Middle Income Countries

During the last few years, there has been a widespread debate about the role of asset prices in the determination of monetary policy. Monetary authorities have traditionally used a Monetary Conditions Index, which is a weighted average between the interest rate and the exchange rate, in order to assess the conditions of the market to determine the correspondent changes in policy. Goodhart (2001) proposed a Financial Condition index for the G-7 countries where some weight could be assigned to asset prices and housing prices. This Financial Conditions Index is found by using a reduced form coefficient estimates and a VAR model. This paper pretends to find this Financial conditions Index for a group of middle income countries. The idea is to compare the role of asset prices in less developed economies in forecasting inflation. It has been found that the effect of financial assets is small, but housing prices are particularly important in most of them, especially Mexico, Turkey and Colombia. The Financial Conditions index is good predictor for prices in Chile, Mexico and Colombia.

CAN THE U.S. MONETARY POLICY FALL (AGAIN) IN AN EXPECTATION TRAP?

We propose a model to study monetary policy under discretion. We focus on Markov perfect equilibria, ruling out trigger strategies. The model is simple enough that the determinants of monetary policy under discretion are clear. We also find that for all parameterizations with an equilibrium inflation rate around 2%, there is a second equilibrium with an inflation rate just above 10%. Thus the model can simultaneously account for the low- and high-inflation episodes in the U.S. experience.

Can U.S. Monetary Policy Fall (Again) into an Expectation Trap?

We propose a model to study monetary policy under discretion. We focus on Markov perfect equilibria, ruling out trigger strategies. The model is simple enough that the determinants of monetary policy under discretion are clear. We also find that for all parameterizations with an equilibrium inflation rate around 2%, there is a second equilibrium with an inflation rate just above 10%. Thus the model can simultaneously account for the low- and high-inflation episodes in the U.S. experience.

Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections

The modern view of monetary policy stresses its role in shaping the entire yield curve of interest rates in order to achieve various macroeconomic objectives. A crucial element of this process involves guiding financial market expectations of future central bank actions. Recently, a few central banks have started to explicitly signal their future policy intentions to the public, and two of these banks have even begun publishing their internal interest rate projections. We examine the macroeconomic effects of direct revelation of a central bank's expectations about the future path of the policy rate. We show that, in an economy where private agents have imperfect information about the determination of monetary policy, central bank communication of interest rate projections can help shape financial market expectations and may improve macroeconomic performance.

Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections

The modern view of monetary policy stresses its role in shaping the entire yield curve of interest rates in order to achieve various macroeconomic objectives. A crucial element of this process involves guiding financial market expectations of future central bank actions. Recently, a few central banks have started to explicitly signal their future policy intentions to the public, and two of these banks have even begun publishing their internal interest rate projections. We examine the macroeconomic effects of direct revelation of a central bank's expectations about the future path of the policy rate. We show that, in an economy where private agents have imperfect information about the determination of monetary policy, central bank communication of interest rate projections can help shape financial market expectations and may improve macroeconomic performance.

What Drives the Fed to Act?

:This paper studies the determinants of monetary policy since 1980 to see whether the Fed has truly followed an ad hoc approach, or whether some variables playa more important role in determining monetary policy than others. The results suggest that the Fed consistently responds to the unemployment rate, and that changes in the unemployment are the most important determinant of monetary policy. The results also indicate that the Fed responded, for some periods, to the real rate of return in the stock market, especially to lower the risk offinancial instabilities, rather than to control asset price inflation.

Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market

Movements in the stock market can have a significant impact on the macroeconomy and are therefore likely to be an important factor in the determination of monetary policy. However, little is known about the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's reaction to the stock market. One reason is that it is difficult to estimate the policy reaction because of the simultaneous response of equity prices to interest rate changes. This paper uses an identification technique based on the heteroskedasticity of stock market returns to identify the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market. The results indicate that monetary policy reacts significantly to stock market movements, with a 5% rise (fall) in the S&P 500 index increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point tightening (easing) by about a half. This reaction is roughly of the magnitude that would be expected from estimates of the impact of stock market movements on aggregate demand. Thus, it appears that the Federal Reserve systematically responds to stock price movements only to the extent warranted by their impact on the macroeconomy.

Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market

Movements in the stock market can have a significant impact on the macroeconomy and are therefore likely to be an important factor in the determination of monetary policy. However, little is known about the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's reaction to the stock market. One reason is that it is difficult to estimate the policy reaction because of the simultaneous response of equity prices to interest rate changes. This paper uses an identification technique based on the heteroskedasticity of stock market returns to identify the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market. The results indicate that monetary policy reacts significantly to stock market movements, with a 5% rise (fall) in the S&P 500 index increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point tightening (easing) by about a half. This reaction is roughly of the magnitude that would be expected from estimates of the impact of stock market movements on aggregate demand. Thus, it appears that the Federal Reserve systematically responds to stock price movements only to the extent warranted by their impact on the macroeconomy.

Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market

Movements in the stock market can have a significant impact on the macroeconomy and are therefore likely to be an important factor in the determination of monetary policy. However, little is known about the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's reaction to the stock market. One reason is that it is difficult to estimate the policy reaction because of the simultaneous response of equity prices to interest rate changes. This paper uses an identification technique based on the heteroskedasticity of stock market returns to identify the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market. The results indicate that monetary policy reacts significantly to stock market movements, with a 5% rise (fall) in the S&P; 500 index increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point tightening (easing) by about a half. This reaction is roughly of the magnitude that would be expected from estimates of the impact of stock market movements on aggregate demand. Thus, it appears that the Federal Reserve systematically responds to stock price movements only to the extent warranted by their impact on the macroeconomy.

Macroeconomics and Politics

The recent game-theoretic macroeconomic literature provides a useful tool for analyzing the relationship between political institutions and the macroeconomy. In particular, this paper examines two related issues: the effects of electoral competition on macroeconomic policy and on the economic cycle, and the role of different degrees of independence of the Central Bank as a determinant of monetary policy. The game-theoretic literature in this area has generated several results that are consistent with the empirical evidence. This claim is supported by reviewing the available empirical results and by performing several new tests. In particular, this paper emphasizes the different empirical implications of rational and optimizing politico-economic models in respect to non-rational approaches. Several open issues and new directions of research are also explored in the conclusions.

Macroeconomics and Politics

The recent game-theoretic macroeconomic literature provides a useful tool for analyzing the relationship between political institutions and the macroeconomy. In particular, this paper examines two related issues: the effects of electoral competition on macroeconomic policy and on the economic cycle, and the role of different degrees of independence of the Central Bank as a determinant of monetary policy. The game-theoretic literature in this area has generated several results that are consistent with the empirical evidence. This claim is supported by reviewing the available empirical results and by performing several new tests. In particular, this paper emphasizes the different empirical implications of rational and optimizing politico-economic models in respect to non-rational approaches. Several open issues and new directions of research are also explored in the conclusions.

U.S. MONETARY POLICY AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1950-60*

SINCE THE WORLD-WIDE revival of flexible monetary policy in the early 1950's, European nations have used the state of the balance of payments as a major determinant of monetary policy. They have employed a restrictive policy when reserves were low, to curb imports, divert production to exports, and encourage capital inflows. In the period under study, 1950-60, the United States experienced a chronic balance-of-payments deficit, yet its monetary policy was oriented to domestic considerations. In addition, United States business cycles differed in timing and intensity from European cycles. These factors led at times to wide differentials between United States and foreign interest rates. These interest-rate differentials caused persistent outflows of shortterm capital and lending on foreign dollar bonds. The net outflow from these two sources was $4.6 billion in the years 1951-59, about one-third of the net balance-of-payments deficit over the nine-year period. Interest rates more nearly in line with those of other countries would have prevented at least some of this outflow, which was greatest during periods of widest interest-rate differentials. However, one major component of United States capital flows-direct investment-fluctuated with the domestic business cycle and consequently was not sensitive to interest-rate differentials. Foreign capital in this country showed less direct sensitivity to interest rates than did United States capital. Interest rates affected foreign short-term capital indirectly by influencing other elements in the balance of payments, but these capital movements did not generally react independently of interest-rate differentials. Interest-rate changes did, however, cause shifts between foreign and official holders of dollars and among different types of dollar assets. Gold movements were also affected only indirectly by monetary policy, through its influence on other balance-of-payments items in determining the side of the deficit. Foreign long-term capital in the United States showed some direct sensitivity to interest rates, but the magnitudes of these flows were small.