Dependency Ratio Research Articles

Welfare effect of rice outgrower scheme participation: empirical evidence from northern Ghana

Outgrower schemes can improve farmers’ welfare by boosting farm productivity and increasing market participation. In this context, we examined the effect of participating in outgrower schemes on household welfare indicators while controlling for potential observed and unobserved biases that could influence the outcomes. To address this objective, we employed an endogenous switching regression model to analyze primary data from 555 rice farmers in northern Ghana who use irrigation. The results revealed significant effect of sex of household’s head, age, marital status, education, dependency ratio, non-farm work, extension contact, access to credit, membership of farmer group, proximity to commercial markets, distance to outgrower schemes, familiarity with scheme operations, and the geographical location of the farmer on the propensity to participate in outgrower schemes. Importantly, participation in outgrower schemes resulted in a 57.6%, 23.6%, and 48.1% increase in household consumption expenditure per capita, income per capita, and asset ownership, respectively, exceeding what participants could have gained if they had not participated. Similarly, the non-participants, would have experienced a 21.2%, 34.0%, and 26.1% increase in household consumption expenditure per capita, income per capita, and assets, respectively, if they had joined the scheme Therefore, strategies to improve farmer groups and extension services are required as they are critical channels for encouraging more farmers to participate in the schemes and thereby improving their welfare.

Is the age pension in Australia sustainable and fair? Evidence from forecasting the old-age dependency ratio using the Hamilton-Perry model

The age pension aims to assist eligible elderly Australians who meet specific age and residency criteria in maintaining basic living standards. In designing efficient pension systems, government policymakers seek to satisfy the expectations of the overall aging population in Australia. However, the population’s unique demographic characteristics at the state and territory level are often overlooked due to the lack of available data. We use the Hamilton-Perry model, which requires minimum input, to model and forecast the evolution of age-specific populations at the state and territory level. We also integrate the obtained sub-national demographic information to determine sustainable pension ages up to 2051. We also investigate pension welfare distribution in all states and territories to identify the disadvantaged residents under the current pension system. Using the sub-national mortality data for Australia from 1971 to 2021 obtained from AHMD (2023), we implement the Hamilton-Perry model with the help of functional time series forecasting techniques. With the forecasts of age-specific population sizes for each state and territory, we compute the old age dependency ratio to determine the nationwide sustainable pension age.

Biophysical and socioeconomic characterization of Agewmariam experimental watershed in Northern Ethiopia: insights and management options.

Watershed characterization is essential for sustainable watershed management and effective resource utilization, particularly in assessing changes resulting from interventions. This study investigates the biophysical and socio-economic conditions of the Agewmariam watershed, aiming to develop land capability and suitability maps while identifying viable management options. Biophysical data, including land slope, soil properties, erosion severity, stoniness/rockiness cover, and vegetation cover, were collected through field surveys and analyzed using overlay analysis in ArcGIS. Socio-economic data, encompassing population demographics, income, and expenditure, were gathered via individual interviews, complete census, and focus group discussions and summarized using descriptive statistics. The study identified 259 households with an average family size of 4 and a demographic dependency ratio of 96.6%. The major sources of income are crop production and livestock rearing supplemented by casual labor and food aid. The average farmland holding size is 0.5ha, with sorghum, barley, teff, and wheat as the dominant crops. The watershed is characterized by six land capability classes (classes II, III, IV, VI, VII, and VIII). The suitability analysis indicated that the watershed is not currently suitable for wheat and teff crops unless physical, chemical, and biological management improvements are implemented. The study revealed that the major limiting factors for land capability and suitability were slope, erosion severity, stoniness, soil organic matter, and soil texture. The socio-economic characterization enhanced awareness about the local socio-economic condition, informing appropriate planning and management strategies. The study recommends intensive soil and water conservation intervention, afforestation on hillsides, changing the land use system, and the addition of organic matter and fertilizers to enhance land capability and suitability for sustainable agricultural practices.

Investigating the housing and transportation burden in a Ghanaian city

ABSTRACT Although there is a strong relationship between housing and transportation (H+T) spending, traditional housing affordability estimates from sub-Saharan Africa exclude transportation costs. Also, the H+T literature has few case studies from small cities and developing countries. This dearth of research makes it difficult to understand the housing burden and provide workable solutions. This paper measures H+T affordability in Koforidua, Ghana, based on rental and transportation costs. A household survey comprising 600 renting households was conducted and analyzed using group comparisons and Ordinary Least Square regressions. The results showed that H+T consumes approximately 56% of household income. This is a huge household burden considering the high unemployment rates in developing countries. Household income and size are significantly associated with H+T spending. Interestingly, smaller households have a marginal propensity to spend on H+T than larger households due to dependency ratio and housing choices. We recommend transport and housing subsidies, and affordable housing to ameliorate the H+T burden. Other policy recommendations and actions have been discussed to guide policymakers.

The Economic Implications of Population Aging on Current Account Balance

This paper focuses on the demographic determinants of current account balance (CAB) across income groups, continents, and time periods between 1993 and 2021. The benchmark model employs a panel data analysis, particularly a two-way effects estimator (Baltagi, 2021), with CAB as the main dependent variable, while savings rate (SAV) is used as an alternative dependent variable. It was found that the old dependency ratio, fertility rate, life expectancy, population growth, and mortality rate have a statistically significant effect on CAB and SAV, but the effects are heterogeneous across income groups and continents. In Africa, an increase in the old dependency ratio has a negative effect on CAB in accordance with the theories of Modigliani & Sterling (1983), Graham, (1987), and Masson & Tryon (1990). Fertility rate has a negative effect on CAB in Africa while having an ambiguous effect in Asia and Europe. In line with the findings of Mason & Lee (2006), there is a positive relationship between fertility rates and CAB and SAV in lower-middle-income countries and negative relationship in high-income countries. Conversely, population growth affects negatively CAB and SAV in lower middle-income countries and positively in high-income countries.

Impact of the Extent of Population Aging on Economic Development and Countermeasure

With the comprehensive prosperity and development of human society, human life expectancy shows a rising trend, fertility rate shows a declining trend, the world is facing a severe problem of population aging, the ensuing economic impact is the focus we need to pay attention to. Taking various countries and regions in the world from 1960 to 2019 as samples, this paper conducted an empirical test on transnational panel data and found that old age dependency would significantly hinder economic growth. The conclusion remained valid after the robustness test of replacing explanatory variables, instrumental variable method and changing sample interval. Further study found that old-age dependency ratio will also significantly reduce consumption expenditure. Based on this, this paper gets inspiration and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions to mitigate the adverse impact of population aging on China's social and economic development.

Prediction of the Effectiveness of Deferred Retirement in the Labor Market Performance in China

Abstract: The analytical document touching upon the prospects of how delaying retirement affects labor market ability in China reveals some crucial information about the implications of the retirement age policy modifications. This test may indicate that the retirement age raise would be a huge factor in China's labor market status, such as employment level and national pension funds. Apart from this, the paper is a reminder for the authorities to have a broad policy discussion on diverse fiscal consequences that different retirement age policies may cause like wage inflexibility, disposable labor issues, and the aging population. These results demonstrate that the simulation should be considered for its interplay with individuals' lives as well as for the macro economy. To scrutinize the efficacy of postponing retirement within China's employment market performance, it's critical to deploy some economic theories. The first method involves the insights from both the Beveridge curve and job creation curve to dissect the nuances of job turnover rates, opportunities for finding new jobs, and their influence on unemployment figures. Delving deeper into pension fund ramifications necessitates assessing the shift from Defined Contribution (DC) schemes towards Defined Benefit (DB) plans, while also taking stock of how dependency ratios come into play. Moreover, gauging effects on incremental labor productivity alongside capital-to-labor ratio calls for an expansive view that considers changes across various industrial sectors and their broader consequences on the labor market as a whole.

Determinants of rural‑urban child malnutrition disparities in Ethiopia

Child malnutrition is a significant issue in Ethiopia, with high prevalence rates. However, there is limited information on the rural‑urban disparities in child malnutrition of all its forms (stunting, wasting, and underweight) in the country. Therefore, this study aimed to address this gap by analysing data from the 2019 Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey (EDHS). This study examined the rural‑urban child malnutrition gaps in Ethiopia using an extended Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition technique. The analysis reveals significant ruralurban disparities in prevalence rates of wasting, underweight, and stunting. The findings highlighted that children in rural areas are more malnourished than their urban counterparts. Additionally, the study identified key determinants of these disparities, including maternal and parental education, household economic status, women’s age at first birth, childbirth size, and working status of women. The results also indicate that institutional delivery, household size, and dependency ratio contribute to widening the rural‑urban disparities in child malnutrition. This study highlighted the importance of targeted policies and interventions to address these disparities and reduce child malnutrition at the national level.

Analysis Of the Impact of China's Population Age Structure on Residential Commercial Housing Prices

With the intensification of global aging, the impact of changes in population age structure on the real estate market is becoming increasingly significant. This article aims to explore the impact of changes in China's population age structure on the prices of residential commercial housing, to provide a scientific basis for regulating the real estate market. By analyzing data from 30 provinces and cities in China from 2013 to 2022, this article finds that as aging population intensifies and the number of children decreases, both the old-age dependency ratio and the child-age dependency ratio have a negative impact on housing prices. This means that the aging society and the economic pressure of childcare may weaken the demand for home purchases. Household Saving Rate and increase in total population positively drive house prices, while the relationship between per capita income and house prices is not significant. From a regional perspective, the aging population in the eastern region has a significant effect on suppressing housing prices, while the impact is gradually evident in the central region. The western region has a smaller impact and population growth suppresses housing price increases. The study emphasizes the impact of changes in the age structure of the Chinese population on the prices of residential properties and proposes policy recommendations such as improving old-age security and optimizing the housing supply structure to promote the steady development of the real estate market.

The Impact of Demographic Change on Economic Growth in ASEAN

To study the impact of Demographic Change on Economic Growth in ASEAN. This study uses panel data from 1993 to 2022 from ASEAN countries by collecting data from the World Development Indicator, World Bank 2023, consisting of GDP per capita, working age population, Youth dependency population, and Elderly dependency population. We utilize the statistical completion program as a tool to help with the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach (ARDL) method analysis. The results of the study found that variables are stationary at I(0) and I(1) level. Moreover, the estimated coefficients of the variables with the Pooled Mean Group reveals that Working age population had a positive impact in long-run on the GDP per capita in ASEAN countries, Youth dependency population had a negative impact in long-run on the GDP per capita in ASEAN countries, and also had a speed of adjustment to long-run equilibrium and for Elderly dependency population were not statistically significant. The result of Mean Group and Dynamic Fixed Effect further shows that there were not statistically significant. By means of the Hausman test, the results can be concluded that Pooled Mean Group estimation is most suitable.

Food insecurity and its determinants in pastoralist and agrarian communities in South Omo Zone, Southern Ethiopia: a community-based cross-sectional study.

Despite the implementation of different interventions, food insecurity remains a major public health issue in rural areas of Ethiopia. However, there has been limited evidence regarding food insecurity and responsible factors in rural areas of Ethiopia, particularly in South Omo, Ethiopia. Hence, this study aimed to assess food insecurity and determinants in agrarian and pastoralist communities of South Omo Zone, Southern Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study was done among 605 randomly selected households in Benatsemay and South Ari districts from February 1 to 28, 2023. A standardized and validated Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) was used to measure food insecurity status. Data were entered using Epi-Info 7.1 and then transferred to SPSS V25 for analysis. To identify associated factors, a binary logistic regression model was employed. The strength of association was evaluated considering the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and a 95% confidence interval (CI). A statistical significance was stated at p-value <0.05. A total of 597 participants were involved in the study with a response rate of 98.7%. The overall prevalence of food insecurity using HFIAS was 42.2% (95%CI: 38.2, 46.3%), among which mild, moderate, and severe food insecurity accounted for 17.4, 16.6, and 8.2%, respectively. Of pastoralists, 114 (47.1%) were food insecure whereas 138 (38.9%) were food insecure in the agrarian. Food insecurity was affected by household head sex (AOR = 1.73, 95%CI: 1.14, 2.62), high dependency ratio (AOR = 2.53, 95%CI: 1.53, 4.20), no formal maternal education (AOR = 2.11, 95%CI: 1.07, 4.18), productive safety net program (AOR = 2.00, 95%CI: 1.16, 3.46) and land ownership (AOR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.19, 2.72). Food insecurity was a significant problem in the study areas. Thus, it is crucial to improve female education, advance agricultural technologies, advocate family planning, and broaden productive safety net programs.

An inquiry into the causes of income differences among high-income countries

Within high-income countries, there is a notable income inequality spectrum, with certain nations positioned close to a predefined economic threshold, while others within this cohort simultaneously embark on substantial economic growth. This study investigates the influence of critical factors on economic growth and the transition from lower-high and middle-high income to upper-high income. Between 1990 and 2019, 25 of the 28 nations successfully advanced to upper-high income levels. Several key factors contribute to overcoming the barriers associated with lower-high income or middle-high income to upper-high income status. These factors include labor force participation, labor productivity, life expectancy, high-tech exports, reduction in unemployment rates, age dependency ratio, and poverty. The regression discontinuity analysis reveals a positive impact on the experimental group, as economic globalization surpasses the threshold of 78 % facilitating the achievement of upper-high income status.

Examining the Role of Local Government’s Financial Performance and Capital Expenditure in Increasing Economic Growth in Banten Province, Indonesia (2018–2022)

This study aims to analyse how financial ratios such as the independence ratio, effectiveness ratio, efficiency ratio, fiscal decentralisation ratio, dependency ratio, and compatibility ratio affect economic growth, directly or indirectly, through capital expenditure as a mediating factor. This research used a quantitative approach; purposive sampling was conducted, and path analysis was applied to explore the relationships between variables. The results show that self-reliance, effectiveness, efficiency, fiscal decentralisation, dependency, and capital expenditure significantly affect economic growth. The independence and effectiveness ratios have a positive impact, indicating that improvements in these variables directly foster economic growth. However, the efficiency and fiscal decentralisation ratios have a negative effect, suggesting that increases in these variables may reduce economic growth. Indirectly, through capital expenditure, the independence, effectiveness, dependency, and compatibility ratios significantly affect economic growth, with the independence ratio being the most dominant. Conversely, the fiscal decentralisation and efficiency ratios did not show significant indirect effects, indicating that capital expenditure is not an effective mediator for these variables. These findings provide insights into how local financial management strategies can influence regional development, offering key policy recommendations for Banten’s local government.

Micro-loans, macro-impacts: Examining the reverberating gains for Habru Woreda’s small-scale agrarian households.

Background Most people in third-world countries are impoverished and rely on small-holder farming as a source of income. Due to a lack of working capital to diversify their sources of income and acquire new sources, farmers are highly dependent on financial institutions to access microcredit. Method This study utilized logistic regression and propensity score matching methods to analyze the primary data collected from a sample of 385 household heads. Results The Estimation results of the study shows that Gender, age, family size, and education, access to irrigation, extension services, dependency ratio, and distance to credit sources were among the significant determinants of access to microcredit service. Conclusion Although microcredit led to an increase in household spending, real asset holdings did not improve. In addition to the need for supplementary interventions like financial literacy training and asset-building programs to encourage asset accumulation among these small-scale agrarian households, high interest rates and repayment burdens are blamed for this uneven result.

Analisis Pendapatan Daerah dalam Mengukur Kemandirian Daerah Kabupaten Bandung

A region's ability to manage regional finances will influence the level of regional independence. To measure the regional independence of Bandung Regency, regional income was measured using ratio analysis consisting of the degree of decentralization ratio, the regional dependency ratio, the regional financial independence ratio, and the PAD effectiveness ratio. The method used in this research is a descriptive qualitative method using secondary data in the form of budget realization reports. The results of the research show that the regional financial performance of Bandung Regency has not been maximized with an average degree of decentralization of 18.41% with the criteria of insufficient capacity, the level of regional dependency is very high with an average of 68.45%, the average level of regional financial independence is 26.93% are included in low financial capability and have a consultative relationship pattern, the average PAD effectiveness level is 110.76% or is included in the very effective category. From the research results it can be concluded that Bandung Regency is not yet independent in managing its regional finances. Efforts that the Bandung Regency Regional Government can make to overcome this are by conducting outreach regarding tax regulations to taxpayers, exploring other potential sources of PAD revenue, and intensifying PAD revenue.

Evaluasi laporan keuangan untuk menilai kinerja keuangan pemerintah daerah Simalungun

Based on the following metrics: (1) Regional Financial Independence Ratio, (2) Regional Financial Dependency Ratio, (3) Fiscal Decentralization Degree Ratio, (4) Original Income Effectiveness Ratio Regional, (5) Regional Original Income Efficiency Ratio, (6) Regional Tax Effectiveness Ratio, (7) Regional Tax Efficiency Ratio, and (8) BUMD Contribution Degree Ratio, this study attempts to analyze the financial performance of the Simalungun Regency Government in the 2013–2022 budget year. Data was gathered using a sampling technique. The results of the analysis show that the Simalungun Regency has a low Regional Financial Independence Ratio, and the region still depends on the central government. The Regional Financial Dependency Ratio is relatively low, and Simalungun still depends on external parties. Moreover, The Ratio of the Degree of Fiscal Decentralization is classified as low; The Ratio of the Effectiveness of regional owned-sources Income is classified as less effective; The Regional owned-sources Income Efficiency Ratio is very efficient; Tax Effectiveness Ratio is classified as quite effective; The Regional Tax Efficiency Ratio is classified as very efficient, and The Ratio of the Degree of Contribution of Regional Owned enterprise is classified as low.

Assessing Indonesian Nutmeg Commodity Trade Competitiveness and Developing Sustainable Strategies in the Global Market

Nutmeg encounters challenges in productivity, quality, climate change, Covid-19 disruptions, and stagflation, requiring efforts to enhance competitiveness and meet global market demands. This study aims to analyze Indonesian nutmeg trade performance, assess competitive advantage, and formulate essential strategies to increase its competitiveness. Using comprehensive mixed quantitative and qualitative analysis, methods include export-import market share analysis, CAGR, import dependency ratio, import-to-export ratio, RCA, RSCA, RTA, and SWOT/QSPM analysis. The data obtained from in-depth interviews with key stakeholders was used for formulating strategies enhancing nutmeg’s competitiveness. The findings underscore Indonesia's significant dominance in the global nutmeg market, with a considerable 61.6% market share but its export growth rate for nutmeg was less than the import annual growth. The competitiveness indicators demonstrated a robust comparative advantage of Indonesian nutmeg trade in the global market, especially for products categorized as “nutmeg, neither crushed nor ground” and “nutmeg, crushed or ground”. Indonesian also has comparative advantage among other exporter countries. Crucial strategies of internal and external perspectives, such as expanding markets, improving nutmeg quality and productivity through improving farmer capacity, technological adoption, and good agricultural practices are necessary to take into account Indonesia’s nutmeg competitiveness in global markets.

Analisis Kondisi Keuangan Pemerintah Kota Sibolga Tahun 2018-2022

This research was aimed to know financial condition of government Sibolga for the years 2018-2022 from efficiency of PAD ratio, effectiveness of PAD ratio, expenditure compatibility ratio and Financial Dependency Ratio. The research used is analitical descriptive. The data collection techniques used in this research were field research and library research. Descriptive and ratio analysis was used to appraise efficiency of PAD ratio, effectiveness of PAD ratio, , expenditure compatibility ratio and Financial Dependency Ratio. The result of this research pointed that (1) efficiency of PAD ratio of Sibolga for each year was 1,59% in average which mean efficiency of PAD was already efficient. (2) The Government of Sibolga is still less effective in managing PAD with an average effectiveness ratio of 76.20%. (3) the highest ratio results from operating expenditures is 85,89% in 2021 and the lowest ratio in 2018 is 77,58%. The highest ratio of capital expenditures to the total expenditure is 22,39% in 2018 and the lowest ratio in 2019 is 14,04%. The Government of Sibolga still prioritizes operational expenditure compared to capital expenditure.(4) Financial Dependency Ratio of Sibolga government during 2018-2022 is 83.88% categorized very high, this condition shows the dependency level of Sibolga Goeverment is very high to the central government.

Analysis of the factors influencing local employment in the mining sector in the Benishangul-Gumuz Regional state of Ethiopia

This article aims to analyze the factors that determine local employment in the mining sector and identify ways to improve the annual income of employed households in the Benishangul-Gumuz Regional State (BGR) of Ethiopia. The research design used for this study was cross-sectional. Quantitative data were collected from a sample of 162 households affected by mining operations, using systematic random sampling. Additionally, four focus group discussions (FGD) and eight key informant interviews (KII) were conducted to gather qualitative data. The quantitative data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and the Heckman two-stage model, while the qualitative data was analyzed using narrative analysis. The descriptive results indicate that most of the jobs created by the mining industries were temporary, and the small-scale mining sector employed more workers than the large-scale sector. Furthermore, migrant laborers benefited more from employment opportunities than indigenous households. The first result of the Heckman two-stage model reveals that the educational level of the household head, the size of the farmland, and membership in a farmer's organization have significant negative effects on local employment. On the other hand, the sex of the household head, the size of the nearest mining project, access to information, access to transport, and access to credit have significant positive effects on local employment. The second-stage results of the Heckman two-stage model show that the age of the household head, the dependency ratio, and membership in farmers' organizations have statistically significant negative effects on the annual income of employed households. Conversely, non-farm activities have statistically significant positive effects on the annual income of employed households. The findings of this study have implications for identifying the determinants and factors that need to be addressed to promote local employment. We suggest that both the Ethiopian and BGR regional governments should work towards increasing local employment opportunities for indigenous communities in the mining sector.

Based on the Analysis of Existing Economic Policies, Compares the Response of Economic Policies to Population Ageing between the UK and Japan

In the context of the changing age structure of the global population, many countries are experiencing the economic consequences of this problem, such as severe dependency ratios and a reduction of qualified workers, which will harm the country's potential economic growth capacity. In order to mitigate the negative effects on the economy, both Japan and the United Kingdom have developed economic policies to deal with population ageing. These policies all revolve around healthcare, pension and employment. These economic policies are similar in some respects, such as in employment, where the two countries try to raise the retirement age of the elderly from various aspects, but show different policy biases in further policy-making for different reasons, such as different cultural backgrounds. This paper analyzes these similarities and differences by reviewing past literature and policy cases, making preliminary conjectures and summaries on the causes of these characteristics through past literature, and analyzing the effectiveness of some of these policies. Finally, we conclude from the study that these policy differences are due to different cultural, and historical backgrounds and current economic situations between the two countries.