Demographic Assumptions Research Articles

Cost-benefit analysis of a thalassemia disease prevention program.

We offer an economic perspective on prevention of beta-thalassemia disease by means of genetic screening and prenatal diagnosis in an established program in Quebec province. The program screens 80 per cent of at-risk persons in the high-risk communities, provides diagnosis to 75 per cent of at-risk couples, and prevented two-thirds of new cases in the period of study. We measured the additional costs, in 1981 Canadian dollars, of medical and public health resources, both incurred and avoided, resulting from use of these prevention services. The total direct cost per case prevented in the program is less than the cost for a single year of treatment for an individual with the disease. Sensitivity analysis accommodating demographic assumptions, participation rates, and discounting rates indicates that, even at rates of marriage, endogamy, and participation lower than observed in the current program, treatment costs will still exceed prevention costs when discounting is set at conventional rates of 4 per cent and 8 per cent. Cost effectiveness of the program is confirmed.

An analysis of indirect mortality estimation

Abstract In this paper the robustness of Brass's child-survivorship indirect mortality estimation technique is investigated. An analytical method is developed for studying the error or bias caused in indirect mortality estimates by poor data, badly chosen model functions, and specific demographic assumptions that are often violated in practice. The resulting analytical expressions give insight into the rationale of indirect methods, the conditions under which they are robust, and the magnitude of errors that occur when specific assumptions are violated.

Asset Allocation and the Social Security System

At the end of 1982, the Social Security System's Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund (OASI) was forced to borrow for the first time in order to pay promised retirement benefits [6]. The Trustees had previously reported that without corrective legislation, the combined Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds (OASDI; hereinafter the Funds) would likely be depleted sometime in 1983, under a range of economic and demographic assumptions [4].' Rescue legislation was enacted in March 1983, based largely on the Report of the National Commission on Social Security Reform [13, 17]. Many factors causing the recent Social Security crisis relate to the System's liabilities. The 1983 Social Security Act Amendments and other proposals aimed

Real Rates of Return and Pension Funding: Comment

I remember that, when we studied actuarial subjects, we did similar exercises to analyse the implications of economic assumptions, when the pension scheme was based on a full funded system of finance. Other exercises dealt with the larger impact of the demographic assumptions when a pay-as-you-go system was involved. (We used the term " demographic assumptions " to define the " actuarial assumptions " discussed in the paper). In particular, I remember that we studied special indexes which the Italian literature (according to Prof. Coppini's terminology) called " indexes for the degree of damage due to salary variation However, our exercises were more sophisticated : for instance, we always made a strict distinction between the rate of growth of salaries (e.g., due to an individual career) and their monetary increase (due to inflation). Of course, we had to read a lot of publications dealing with those problems. I cannot produce the relevant references because there are so many ; however, these subjects are discussed in every congress of actuaries. Moreover, in our actuarial training, we were taught that the economic assumptions are not independent of the demographic ones, and that there are some limits of validity for a system of finance. Afterwards, practice taught us how to make the assumptions needed in a pension scheme ; personally, I prefer to use simulations and to employ a set of rates for each assumption.

Continuity and Change in Rural Thai Family Structure

Using a folk model of the traditional Thai family development cycle in conjunction with certain demographic assumptions, one can formulate expectations for a number of characteristics of Thai families. These expectations are then compared with data derived from censuses of contemporary Thai villages. The analysis suggests that the domestic cycle has changed less than might be expected, and that most of the significant changes can be attributed directly to processes of modernization.

A growth model with population as an endogenous variable

Abstract This paper presents a recursive model of economic growth in which particular attention is paid to the demographic assumptions and their effects on the growth of income per head. The labour inputs depend both on the growth of the labour force and on the effectiveness of labour supplied, which in turn depends on the level of consumption per head, given the stock of capital and natural resources. Population growth is a function of two types of birth control programme; one is the subsidized supply of birth control instruments and the other is a bonus scheme which pays people not to have children. In examining the solution of the model, emphasis is placed on the sensitivity of the growth rate to variations in the allocation of the state's budget among various growth and non-growth inducing expenditures, including birth control. A numerical simulation, based on South Asian data, indicates the kind of calculation that can be made in this type offully recursive model.