Demand-supply Situation Research Articles

Intra-regional Development Disparities: Virtual Regions Strategy for Development of Tribal Communities and Water-stressed Regions in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana

Intra-regional Development Disparities: Virtual Regions Strategy for Development of Tribal Communities and Water-stressed Regions in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana

A Comprehensive Analysis of the Power Demand–Supply Situation, Electricity Usage Patterns, and the Recent Development of Renewable Energy in China

Renewable energy is now the world’s most reliable and sustainable solution to environmental pollution, the energy crisis, and social sustainability. In order to regulate renewable energies and ensure the sustainable development of renewable energy in China, a regulatory framework is imperative. Electricity demand and supply forecasting have become one of the most important topics for research on sustainable solutions to energy issues. This article analyzes the Chinese electric power industry structure by looking at historical electricity demand and supply data. This study shows how a divergent set of energy policies can facilitate the application of renewable energy to China’s electric power sector. The analysis shows that in 2020, China’s electricity generation and consumption increased by 0.9 and 1.3 percent annually, respectively, producing capacity of power plants increased by 5.6 GW, coal consumption of power supply decreased by 4.3 g/kWh, power generation projects investment increased by 51.6 billion RMB, power grid projects investment decreased by 1.8 billion RMB, and newly installed generation capacity increased by 769 GW year on year (YOY). During the first three quarters of 2021, the generation, consumption and coal consumption of electricity increased respectively by 10.7 and 12.9%, the generating capacity of power plants increased by 9.4 GW, the average coal consumption of power supply decreased by 0.9 g/kWh, power generation projects investment increased by 1.8 billion RMB, while power grid projects investment decreased by 0.3 billion RMB and new generation capacity added around 20.16 GW compared to the same period last year. Furthermore, domestic power consumption grew by 6.0% and 7%, respectively, in 2020–2021. The paper examines China’s current climate, developments, and renewable energy targets between 2020 and 2021. This research aims to identify the main risks associated with China’s renewable energy development and propose a few policy measures for risk management.

Digital integration to enhance market efficiency and inclusion of smallholder farmers: a proposed model for fresh fruit and vegetable supply chain

High-value agriculture in India is witnessing a transformation, specifically in fresh fruits and vegetables (FFV). Supply chain stakeholders, mainly small and marginal farmers, receive a very minimal share in consumer rupee due to market uncertainty, high post-harvest losses, information asymmetry, lack of processing facilities and the erratic demand-supply situation. The current study draws from an extensive review to propose a competitive, inclusive, sustainable and scalable supply chain model of primary processing centers connecting farmers directly and efficiently with consumers. The proposed model will connect producers with the rest of the supply chain and streamline the supply chain process to reduce post-harvest losses as much as possible. The integration of a market information system will ensure transparency to help in better decision-making, reduced intermediaries and information asymmetry for producers, as well as the systematic disposal of the produce. The model will increase the efficiency of the FFV supply chain and has practical implications for agribusiness management and policymakers in relation to FFV supply chain development in India.

Holistic fuzzy evaluation of operational risk in polish mining enterprises in a long-term and sectoral research perspective

The main objective of this article is to carry out long-term, comparative organizational risk assessment in Polish mining enterprises, oriented towards cognitive, methodical and management results. During the analysis, the authors also attempt to find answers to five detailed research problems. Risk assessment in the studied enterprises is carried out in two key areas: (1) resource area, where one can distinguish intangible and tangible assets, financial and human resources and (2) industry environment, where the attention is paid to the relations that the mining enterprise has with the suppliers, consumers and its demand-supply situation. The mentioned levels of operational risk assessment are standardized and aggregated with the use of method of fuzzy sets for authors’ designed model. In accordance with the results of the analysis, the operational risk in the long-term perspective in the studied enterprises has been changing, mainly in the area of human resources potential, especially in the scope of assessment of financial resources. The highest changeability and susceptibility to the business fluctuations was characteristic of the assessment in the scope of financial resources and the assessment of results of operational activity. Apart from the indicated areas, the holistic level of operational risk was also influenced by the changes in the level of tangible investments and human resources. The research carried out in this article constitutes methodological and analytical filling in of the knowledge on the scope of operational risk assessment in mining enterprises and the sources of such risk, divided into external and internal sources. The obtained results can be used to carry out comparative analyzes at the level of particular enterprises, industries and countries. They can also turn out useful in the improvement of risk management from individual and sectoral perspective.

Distributed Optimal Day-Ahead Scheduling in a Smart Grid: A Trade-Off among Consumers, Power Suppliers, and Transmission Owners

To cope with the challenges due to increasing peak load, an optimal day-ahead scheduling problem for social welfare maximization is proposed, in which not only the comfort level of consumers and costs of power suppliers but also the power losses in transmission and operation costs of transmission owners are taken into account. Then this optimal day-ahead scheduling problem is reformulated and solved via the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), by which fast convergence is guaranteed and the privacy of participants is ensured, in a distributed manner. Specifically, in the proposed distributed optimal day-ahead scheduling, the hourly prices for consumers are divided into hourly supply prices and hourly delivery prices, which will be updated by the independent system operator based on the hourly demand-supply situations and hourly demand-delivery situations, respectively. And the consumers, power suppliers, and transmission owners make their individual optimal day-ahead scheduling based on their individual hourly prices, hourly supply prices, and hourly delivery prices, respectively, until the hourly demand-supply balances and hourly demand-delivery balances are achieved. Effectiveness of the proposed distributed optimal day-ahead scheduling is verified by the cases studied.

Power Deficit: A Supply Side Management Perspective

The growth of Indian economy has altered the demand-supply situation for power generation and also it has set the process of accelerated capacity addition and opening up of markets by regulatory interventions. In the backdrop of the expected growth rate of 9% envisaged for the Indian economy, power sector requires a capacity addition of 78,700 MW in the 11th Plan with the objective of 'power for all by 2012'. The ever growing energy shortage and peak shortage during peak demand indicate a strong need for effective energy management. In this paper an attempt has been made to explore several supply side approaches, which would compliment the capacity addition mission to deal with the power deficit scenario in the country.

Dynamic Relationship between Spot and Futures Prices of Turmeric - Evidence from National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd. (NCDEX)

India's growth story in the coming years would be commodity intensive. However, volatile price movement, ambiguity in the demand-supply situation and lack of information about the availability of a commodity could be issue of concern for every stakeholder in the supply chain. Commodity futures trading would help to hedge against price risk. Further, India is the largest producer, consumer and exporter of turmeric in the world which accounts for about 80 per cent of world turmeric production and 60 per cent of world exports. Thus, taking into consideration, the importance of turmeric in Indian economy, the paper presented the area, production, productivity and export trends of turmeric in India in the present scenario. Further, the volatility feature of turmeric prices lead the author to examine the dynamic relationship between spot and futures prices of turmeric using the Granger Causality Test. Empirical estimates highlight the following evidences: i) the futures markets dominate spot markets for turmeric in India; ii) the F-statistic indicates a strong flow of information from the futures markets to spot markets than the reverse; iii) the unidirectional causal relationships exhibited by futures and spot price series imply that the futures markets of turmeric help to discover prices in the spot markets.

Clarification of misled statistic data: overestimated per-capita housing area

The per-capita urban housing area determines trends in the real estate market largely. These trends are important in formulating economic policies. The China Statistical Yearbook provides two groups of data for ‘per-capita urban housing.’ The demand–supply situation of the Chinese housing market must be analyzed and predicted by using different versions of data. This study uses data from Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Republic of China, which comprise projected timing comparative data of the Chinese per-capita urban housing area, and predicts the future demand–supply situation of the Chinese housing market using the Gompertz model. The result shows that the per-capita urban housing area has declined since 2001, but the tight trend of the Chinese real estate market and the pressure of rising house prices will last for a relatively long time. The construction speed of commercial houses will only slow down if the urbanization proportion reaches 75%.

A sustainable and collaborative strategy for dynamic spectrum management in next generation wireless networks

Next generation wireless technologies offer various services from voice call to full motion pictures and even to high speed internet access. Consequently, the service providers (SP) armed with different wireless technologies (like 2.5G/3G/LTE) would require an adequate and significant amount of spectrum bandwidth for satisfying the need of their customers. Hence to achieve complete commercialization, the SPs, operating simultaneously, would demand for more and more spectrum from the regulatory body of the country. The spectrum demand on the part of the SP may vary with time (dynamic) because of varied kind of loads which are generated depending on the nature of the client-base, their requirements and their expected quality of experience. This work has addressed this challenging issue of allocating spectrum dynamically to different technologies under the portfolio of an SP. Here, we have conceived a scenario where service providers (SP) own multiple access networks (ANs) of different technologies. We envisage that an entity, called local spectrum controller (LSC) which is dedicated for managing the common pool of spectrum allocated to each SP. LSC is mainly responsible for distributing the spectrum to individual ANs of an SP in a fair manner. Since the available spectrum may not be sufficient enough to satisfy the aggregate demand from all ANs simultaneously, an LSC may face a situation, where satisfying individual demands from all ANs may result in a compromise between the demand and supply. This demand–supply situation would force an LSC or an SP to adhere to some dynamic spectrum management strategy, where demands of an AN would have to be satisfied depending on the current state of available spectrum and required usage of it. This calls for an adaptive dynamic strategy to be introduced by an SP for efficient spectrum distribution. The dynamic disparity of spectrum allocation can be idealized as a game between LSC and ANs. Hence, in the present work, we have modeled the problem of dynamic spectrum allocation as an n-player cooperative bankruptcy game and have solved the problem with the help of Shapley value and τ-value separately. We have investigated whether the ANs find it beneficial to cooperate with each other to make the solution sustainable enough. To evaluate the performances of the games that the ANs play, we have designed a novel utility function for each AN. We have identified plausible aims of an SP as minimizing overall dissatisfaction (MOD) and maximizing equality of distribution (MED). Next, we have studied performances of the above two solution concepts against max–min fairness algorithm (benchmarked in our case) with respect to the above objectives of LSC. Finally, we have proposed a unique heuristic in order to facilitate the decision making process of dynamic spectrum allocation, which leads to an adaptive yet optimized spectrum allocation strategy.

Patterns of regional travel behavior: An analysis of Japanese hotel reservation data

This study considers the availability of room opportunities collected from a Japanese hotel booking site. We empirically analyze the daily number of room opportunities for four areas. To determine the migration trends of travelers, we discuss a finite mixture of Poisson distributions and the EM-algorithm as its parameter estimation method. We further propose a method to infer the probability of opportunities existing for each observation. We characterize demand–supply situations by means of relationship between the averaged room prices and the probability of opportunity existing.

Demand and supply of Teakwood in Kerala

This paper analyses the demand-supply situation of Teakwood in Kerala State in India. The total demand for Teakwood during 2000-2001 was 96,294 m3, which was 4.7 per cent of the total demand for all timbers. Among the timber-using sectors, housing was the largest Teakwood-using sector. Teakwood export to other States within the country was 13,812 m3 of which 6335 m3 was Teak poles. The international export was only 113 m3. Of the total Teakwood supply, forest plantations accounted for 52 per cent, import 15 per cent and areas outside forests contributed the remaining 33 per cent. Production and consumption of Teakwood was more or less matched, with only a small deficit of 667 m3. Kerala, a traditional exporter, has now become a net importer. Shortening of the rotation age of forest Teak plantations to 50 years has reduced the production of larger girth logs. A policy for increasing the rotation age of forest Teak plantations must be adopted to make available high value larger girth logs for the national and international markets.

Forces Driving Inflation in the New EU10 Members

The paper analyzes the forces driving inflation in the new EU10 member countries. A significant part of headline inflation in these countries is due to common factors, such as price level convergence and EU integration. However, idiosyncratic factors have also played a role in the inflation process. These factors are related to the country-specific financial conditions, pass-through from foreign prices, and demand-supply situation in each country, although administered price adjustments and increases of indirect taxes associated with EU accession are also likely to have played a role.

Energy efficiency management in India: a supply side perspective

The rapid pace of India's industrial development has altered the demand-supply situation for power generation and also set the process of opening up of markets by state regulators. In the backdrop of the expected growth rate of 9% envisaged for the Indian economy, power sector requires a capacity addition of 78,000 MW in the 11th Plan with the objective of 'power for all by 2012'. During fiscal year 2007, India's total energy shortage was 9.9% of its total requirements, and peak shortage was 16.6% of peak demand requirements, indicating the need for effective energy management. Most of the studies related to energy efficiency focus on demand side management (DSM), however, in this paper we propose that an integrated approach incorporating economic reforms, FDI, operational-efficiency improvement of existing power plants, introduction of new energy-efficient technologies and reduction of losses in T&D as practiced in India can be emulated by developing countries.

Water and energy linkages for groundwater exploitation: a case study of Gujarat State, India

Water and energy, two important resources for human development, have inextricable interlinkages between them. Their complementarity, a blessing otherwise, causes a vicious cycle in a complex situation like the present case study of Gujarat State, India. This paper analyses the demand-supply situation of both sectors for a State that is primarily agrarian but also with a high industrial growth rate. Due to inequitable distribution of surface water, recurrent droughts and ever increasing demand trend, groundwater (a major source in the State) has been overexploited in many parts, leading to 'water mining' with worsening water quality. With more than 40% energy consumed for extracting groundwater, this has had a serious impact on the energy balance. The paper discusses the energy requirements to satisfy the water needs and the water requirements for generation of energy. Finally, the feasible options available to meet the crisis, ranging from development of mega projects like Sardar Sarovar and Kalpasar to micro water harvesting structures, water pricing, consumer training etc., are reviewed.

The Lithuanian Forest Sector Towards the 21st Century: the Strategic Problems of the Transitional Period

Strategy specifies the direction. Long-term strategy usually means the ability to answer the following questions:• Where are we now?• Where do we want to go?• How do we get there?Changes in the economical, demographic and political development of the country, the value orientation of the Government expressed by the Forest Policy, the availability of resources, the demand-supply situation in the markets, and the past and present performance of business all greatly affect the formulation of Forest Sector Strategies for the future.This paper examines the first two questions presented above. Firstly, we shall introduce ourselves shortly to the present situation in which the Lithuanian Forest Sector exists. Secondly, we shall look at future possibilities. The important changes of the operating environment of the transitional period in the whole economy of Lithuania are also discussed.

A spatial equilibrium analysis of Southern Pine lumber pricing and allocation

The objective of this paper is to determine the optimum allocation and pricing pattern of Southern Pine lumber as well as to evaluate the current and future demand-supply situation. With regard to the latter, spatial equilibrium of the Southern Pine lumber market is analyzed, and a comparative statics approach involving two equilibrium points is employed. The year 1981 is chosen as the initial point in time. The future date of 1984 is selected to be used for comparative statics analysis. A spatial solution—the optimal allocation and pricing pattern—will be obtained by using the Takayama-Judge and the Liew-Shim quadratic spatial equilibrium models. In estimating regional demand and supply functions, which are critical for the analysis, the two-stage least-squares estimation method will be used, based on apooled sample of cross section and time series for the period 1971–1981. As a result of comparing the optimum 1984 solution with the 1981 solution, it is expected that some of the areas under study can experience a tight supply of Southern Pine lumber, and consequently, lumber production-consumption balances will result in deficit production.

The Off-Shore Petroleum Resources of South-East Asia: Potential Conflict Situations and Related Economic Considerations. By Corazón Morales Siddayao. Kuala Lumpur: Oxford University Press (Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore), 1978. xx, 205 pp. Tables, Figures, Appendixes, Bibliography, Index. $27.00.

One: The Demand-Supply Situation.- I. The Value of Petroleum to South-East Asian Economies.- The Relation between Energy and Economic Growth.- Energy and Petroleum Consumption in South-East Asia.- Oil as a Revenue Earner.- Urgency for Developing Indigenous Resources.- II. The Off-Shore Petroleum Resource Potential of South-East Asia.- Off-shore Resource Estimates.- Factors Enhancing South-East Asia's Petroleum Prospects.- Off-shore Production.- Two: Potential Areas of Conflict.- III. Potential Sources of Conflict and the Law of the Sea Issues.- Jurisdictional Issues in the Law of the Sea Affecting Off-shore Petroleum Resources.- The Territorial Sea Issue.- Jurisdictional Issues over Resources.- IV. Actual Territorial Disputes over Potential Off-Shore Petroleum Fields.- Controversial Claims in the Gulf of Thailand.- Oil-related Area Claims in the South China Sea.- Off-shore Oil Discoveries in Sabah and the Malaysia-Philippines Controversy.- V. Potential Conflict Situations Arising from Geological Settings and Environmental Phenomena.- Geology-Related Potentials for Conflict.- Commonality of Water Resources and the Conservation/ Pollution Problem.- Three: Economic and Policy Implications.- VI. Some Economic Factors Bearing on the Resolution of Conflicts over Oil Resources.- The Economics of Petroleum Resource Development.- Some Economic Impacts of Petroleum Resource Development.- Some Environmental Impacts of Off-shore Petroleum Development.- Economic Welfare Implications of Conflict Situations.- Benefit/Cost Analysis in Government Decision-making Relative to Off-shore Petroleum Resources.- Social Opportunity Costs of Disputes.- VII. Conclusions and Policy Implications.- Appendixes.- A U.S. Geological Survey Description of Coastal Categories.- B Proposed Legal Definitions in the Third Law of the Sea Conference.- C Mathematical Explanation of Welfare Maximization in the Utilization of a Society's Petroleum Resources.