Demand Management Practices Research Articles

A HYBRID PUSH/PULL SYSTEM IN AN SME BAKERY IN JOHANNESBURG

Bakery X is a small business in Johannesburg, South Africa that produces baked goods and sells these directly to the end customer. Bakery X has difficulties meeting customer demand for fat cakes during the peak hours of 06:00 to 10:00 and 12:00 to 14:00. Interviews were conducted with employees to identify the production and demand management practices at Bakery X in order to evaluate improvement opportunities. The two main bottlenecks that were identified were a policy bottleneck (dough rising process) and a communication bottleneck. In the current production system, work is released on the basis of perceived demand and not real demand, which has resulted in shortages and the formation of long queues. A hybrid push/pull production system is proposed for implementation to help to eliminate the bottlenecks in the production process, using a Kanban to smooth out the flow and so deliver value to the customer and to Bakery X.

Time-dependent pricing strategies for metro lines considering peak avoidance behaviour of commuters

With growing concerns about travel demand management practices in overcrowded metro systems, it is considered that time-dependent pricing strategies are effective for dealing with the crowding occurring during peak commuting hours. In this study, a bi-level optimisation framework is used to consider the peak avoidance behaviour of commuters in the development of time-dependent pricing strategies. The behavioural sensitivity of commuters to pricing factors is investigated in terms of departure time and mode shift decisions based on a stated preference survey conducted in Beijing, China. The proposed bi-level programming model comprises a multi-objective optimisation model at the upper level and a nested logit-based stochastic user equilibrium model at the lower level. Based on an empirical case study of the Batong line in Beijing metro, nine optimal time-dependent pricing strategies are tailored by representative decision preferences, yielding up to 13.97% decrease in the peak ridership during rush hours.

The nexus of gendered practices, energy, and space use: A comparative study of middleclass housing in Pakistan and Jordan

The nexus of gendered domestic practices, energy and space use remains under-researched in energy studies, particularly in the Global South. This paper takes a gendered practice-theoretical approach to investigate women’s differential energy and space use in domestic practices. Qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews with middleclass homeowners in Lahore, Pakistan and Amman, Jordan show that energy and space use are implicated in the gendering of domestic practices in three ways: 1) contingency of women’s energy consumption on spatial affordances of housing developments in the gendered division of private/public spheres, 2) women as primary performers of domestic energy flexibility and demand management practices and 3) women’s varied and differential agency in their roles as wives, mothers, caregivers, mothers- and daughters-in-law, income-generators, and housemaids. In Lahore, women as household managers negotiate domestic practices under an intermittent electricity supply and power dynamics of extended families and domestic service. In Amman, nuclear family structures and declining servant culture result in women’s greater reliance on energy-intensive technologies, especially for working women. In both contexts, modernist spatial regulations that determine building density and setbacks, height restrictions, spatial layouts and window placement etc. exhibit gender oversights and conflict with socio-cultural norms of privacy and segregation. This has implications for domestic energy demand, with different women having to negotiate between comfort, convenience, and consumption. The study highlights limitations of current gender-neutral and gender-binary approaches in housing and energy and calls for greater socio-cultural understanding of gender relations and intersectional agencies in domestic energy practices for improved equity and sustainability.

Modelling the impact of climate change on the flow of the Eerste River in South Africa

This research investigated the impact of climate change on the Eerste River, which is the primary source of water for the Stellenbosch Municipality and the agricultural sector in the surrounding areas of Stellenbosch Town, South Africa. Climate data projected by 11 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 enforced by Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, was statistically downscaled to reflect the “near” (2022–2057) and “far” (2058–2093) future periods, respectively. The ensemble mean of these GCMs outputs for the near and far future periods was compared to that of the present-day period which was accepted as the period between 1983 and 2018. This was done to determine the climate change signal, which was then transferred onto the observed precipitation and evaporation data of the present-day period. The climate change induced data, as well as land use and water demand analysed data, were then used as input to the Pitman Model, which is the conceptual semi-distributed hydrological model, for the simulation of the impact of climate change on the flow of the Eerste River. The results showed that climate change is expected to increase evaporation between 6% and 15% and, at the same time, causing rainfall to decrease between 2% and 8% in the future periods. This future climate is anticipated to cause a reduction in available water of between 8% and 18%, potentially triggering an increase in irrigation demand of between 12% and 29% in the future periods with a possible failure to meet the municipal water abstractions expected in the far-future period. Therefore, this research suggests increasing the capacity of existing farm dams and the promotion of water demand management practices to curb the potential impact of climate change on the available flow of the Eerste River.

Supply Chain Management Integration and Demand Management Practices on Organizational Performance of Kenya Medical Research Institute

In Kenya, SMEs are businesses employing between 1-50 people and maybe either in formal or informal sectors and may also be in farm or non-farm categories. Due to the sector importance, Kenya has enacted several laws in support of SMEs. The SMEs require a concerted effort from both private and public since the sector draws stakeholders from both. To enhance their sustainability in the economy, the SMEs require serious empirical research in order to elicit the constraints with the goal of developing proactive remedial frameworks so that their existence may be promoted. Amongst the numerous challenges that constrain the working of SMEs is inadequate financing, thus the derivative of the overall goal of this study. The study location was Meru town. The descriptive research design was used. As per the Meru county government records, 160 SMEs are permitted and have been in operation for not less than 3 years. From every SME, one respondent was used. Census was adopted as the study design informed by the small population and the ease of reaching the respondents. A questionnaire was used to collect data through a drop-pick method which was done in three days’ time. Data analysis was through descriptive methods. Data analysis was assisted by SPSS version 22 by subjection to regression analysis to establish the existence of relatedness between the dependent and independent variables. Presentation of results was done through tables. Regression analysis results indicated that the loaning procedure had a significant effect on credit accessibility among SMEs in Meru Town. It was recommended further study to be conducted to find out the other determinants of credit accessibility amongst SMEs in Meru town.

A framework for the study of householders’ engagement with low-carbon energy demand practices in dwellings with grid-connected photovoltaic energy systems

Introduction: This paper introduces a framework to assess householders’ interaction with grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems in domestic buildings, in an attempt to research the question To what extent the engagement of occupants in energy demand management practices is relevant for the operational CO 2 emissions reductions in dwellings with on-grid PV systems? The focus is placed on identifying the engagement with low-carbon operation practices and its relevance for final CO2 emissions from electricity consumption. Specifically, PV electricity Self-consumption and energy conservation practices are studied. To this extent, the research builds on i) the energy services approach and ii) the social practices approach to domestic energy demand. The context of owner-occupied houses which have been retrofitted with PV installations in South Wales, UK is taken as an example. Methods: After a brief conceptual review on domestic energy demand, a mixed-methods framework for the study of householders’ engagement with low-carbon energy demand practices is presented, comprising three key aspects: a) the conditions for the practices to occur, b) frequency with which householders enact the practices, and c) the estimation of final operational CO2 emissions performance. Results: As part of ongoing research work, a framework to study households’ engagement with low-carbon energy demand practices in buildings with grid-connected PV technology is proposed; focusing on the obtention of a socio-technical lecture to complement other sources of in-use assessment data. Conclusions: Besides single case-studies, the framework has potential applications in recognising and grouping households’ engagement profiles. In this way, it is suggested that the framework might facilitate the analysis when extensive assessments are needed; such as in public policy evaluation or demand response studies. Grant Support: This work is funded by CONICYT PFCHA/DOCTORADO BECAS CHILE/2018 - 72180375.

Integrating revenue management and sales and operations planning in a Make-To-Stock environment: softwood lumber case study

Most research regarding revenue management in manufacturing has considered only a short-term planning horizon, assuming supply and production data exogenously given. Motivated by the case of the Canadian softwood lumber industry, this paper offers additionally a medium-term visibility for firms with limited capacity and faced with seasonal markets. We propose a demand management process for Make-To-Stock environments, integrating sales and operations planning (S&OP) and order promising based on revenue management concepts. Given heterogeneous customers, divergent product structure and multiple sourcing locations in a multi-period context, we first define a multi-level decision framework in order to support medium-term, short-term and real-time sales decisions in a way to maximize profits and to enhance the service level offered to high-priority customers. We further propose a mathematical formulation integrating an S&OP network model in the Canadian softwood lumber industry and an order promising model using nested booking limits. This new formulation allows reviewing previous order promising decisions while respecting sales commitments. A rolling horizon simulation is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed process in various demand scenarios and provides evidence that better performances can be achieved compared to common demand management practices by integrating S&OP and revenue management concepts.

Developing an integrated framework to build a decision support tool for urban water management

Abstract This paper presents an integrated, computer-based generic framework to couple urban water related models into a decision support tool (DST) for urban-water management. The DST, built on a participatory modelling approach, enables stakeholders to analyze impacts of climate variation, population growth, and alternative management solutions ranging from centralized to distributed options. The coupling of external models, building of the DST, and execution of simulation processes is achieved by employing GoldSim, which is linked to a database management tool and a shared library. A post-processing package generates outcomes for decision makers in the form of a new criterion, the Water System Performance Index (WSPI). The application of DST is demonstrated for the water service area of the Salt Lake City Department of Public Utilities (SLCDPU). Results show that a decentralized alternative increases the reliability of the system without changing the system's vulnerability. Centralized alternative improves the overall performance of the system based on WSPI results, but decrease in performance is still noticeable under the hot and dry climate condition. Overall, the system is very sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. Results show that during droughts, supply management is not the sole solution and compulsory demand-management practices should be instigated.

A Regional Social, Environmental and Economic Lifeline The Lake Gaston Water Supply Project

Proactive water supply planning utilizes demand management strategies to promote the viability of future water supply. The Hampton Roads Region recognizes the importance of demand management and development efforts in water supply planning and also understands that it is crucial for the region to conserve local water resources and minimize both current and future water demands. Based on the water resource studies, the Hampton Roads Region is pursuing programs and projects to meet long-term needs while providing interim and drought-related solutions. Incorporating water demand management practices both in the long and short term is a necessary component to extend the useful life of the regional water supply. The Lake Gaston Water Supply Project is one of the most critical long-distance water supply pipeline projects in the region. It brings water from other watersheds and provides high quality, reliable fresh water to the Hampton Roads area. It has a positive and profound effect on the region’s social, environmental, and economic impacts.

Building-level power demand forecasting framework using building specific inputs: Development and applications

Abstract In this paper, the development of a general framework for building level power demand forecasting and its applications to supervisory control and demand management are presented. Models of thermal loads, while rigorous and insightful, do not directly extrapolate to measures of power consumption and cannot be easily applied to a variety of buildings. Ultimately, building operators are interested in managing power consumption as energy costs and opportunities are directly related to the power variable. Our work develops Auto-Regressive models with eXogeneous inputs (ARX) to forecast power demand in conjunction with existing physics based modeling approaches and enhances the current control framework for building energy management. The main contributions of this work are identifying and incorporating building level measurements as inputs, and evaluating the use of power forecast models for supervisory control and demand response (DR). The move towards a smarter grid is expected to provide extensive data on building conditions and power consumption, which we can include in the model development. Options for model inputs and outputs are investigated depending on possible measurements, and their effect (or sensitivity) on the modeling and decision making processes are evaluated. It is shown that an appropriate selection of exogenous inputs related to the control action is necessary to capture the effect of common demand management practices such as precooling. The forecasting capabilities are also demonstrated on a simplified building model and on data collected from a real building.

Developing resilience to England's future droughts: Time for cap and trade?

Much of England is seriously water stressed and future droughts will present major challenges to the water industry if socially and economically damaging supply restrictions are to be avoided. Demand management is seen as a key mechanism for alleviating water stress, yet there are no truly effective incentives to encourage widespread adoption of the behavioural and technological demand management practices available. Water pricing could promote conservation, but on its own it is an inefficient tool for dealing with short term restriction in water supply. Raising prices over the short term in response to a drought is likely to be ineffectual in lowering demand sufficiently; conversely, maintaining high prices over the long term implies costs to the consumer which are needlessly high most of the time. We propose a system for developing resilience to drought in highly water stressed areas, based on a cap and trade (C&T) model. The system would represent a significant innovation in England's water market. However, international experience shows that C&T is successful in other sectors, and need not be overly complex. Here, we open the debate on how a C&T system might work in England.

Índice de vegetação no algodoeiro sob diferentes doses de nitrogênio e regulador de crescimento

The increasing cost of nitrogen fertilizer, combined with high losses, demand management practices that result in high efficiency of nitrogen use by crops, considering the reduction of risks to the environment. Our objectives were to evaluate the index of normalized difference vegetation – NDVI – the variation of nitrogen and growth regulator and its relationship to foliar N and chlorophyll in cotton crops. The experiment was conducted on Distroferric Latosol (Oxisol), in Dourados, MS. We adopted a randomized block design in split plot with four replications. The main treatments consisted of doses of growth regulator (0, 0.30 and 0.60 L ha-1), the secondary treatments consisted of five N rates (0, 30, 70, 110 and 150 kg ha-1). The NDVI obtained by an active optical sensor was influenced significantly by the N and the growth regulator application, but on most of the readings the interactions between these two factors were not significant. NDVI values can be used on the diagnostic of N nutritional deficiencies for cotton.

Anticipatory modulation of air navigation charges to balance the use of airspace network capacities

Excess of air traffic demand over available capacity in certain segments of the European airspace network typically results in substantial delays imposed on airspace users, despite a possible parallel existence of underutilised adjacent network segments. Recent EU legislation lays down a performance scheme for air navigation services (ANS) and network functions, in an attempt to improve overall efficiency of the ANS, across the areas of safety, environment, capacity and cost-efficiency. It sets a framework for a possible introduction of incentive schemes which would drive the behaviour of involved stakeholders towards meeting the established performance objectives. In such a context, this paper examines an economic concept to incentivise a more efficient use of available network capacities. We put forward a method and develop a model for an anticipatory, time-dependent modulation of ANS charges, aiming to alleviate the demand-capacity imbalance on an airspace network, at minimal cost to airspace users. The proposed method is conceptualised as a bi-level optimisation problem, reconciling the perspectives of network manager and individual network users. The results of a medium-scale real-life case study indicate that an imposition of a revenue-neutral matrix of tolls and rebates on a congested airspace network may yield a fairly equitable route assignment, which seems capacity-wise more efficient than current administrative demand management practices.

The Red Dead Canal project: an adaptation option to climate change in Jordan

In arid and semiarid regions such as Jordan, climate change impacts on the balance between available resources and demands are expected to be severe. Climate change is expected to reduce resources and increase demands which will inevitably result in enlarging the gap between supply and demand. Adaptation to these impacts can be achieved either by reducing demands via implementing demand management practices or by developing and utilizing undeveloped resources, or by both. This paper investigates the impacts of the proposed red dead canal (RDC) project on bridging the gap between supply and demand in Amman and Zarqa cities within Amman Zarqa Basin (AZB) and in the Jordan Valley. The water evaluation and planning system (WEAP) is implemented for the Jordan Valley and AZB for this purpose. WEAP allocates water to competing demands based on the physical system characteristics as well as user-defined criteria, so that coverage at all competing demand sites is equal. The physical system characteristics include water availability, water demands, and transmission line capacity. The user-defined criteria include demand priority and supply preference. The Jordan Valley and AZB are represented as a network of supplies and demands connected by transmission lines in the WEAP environment. AZB and the Jordan Valley are connected via Zarqa River, where As Samra wastewater treatment plant effluent that treats the wastewater generated in Amman and Zarqa is discharged to the river, which flows to King Talal Dam and then released to the Jordan Valley, and used for irrigation after mixing with King Abdulla Canal water. Inputs to the model were taken from MWI real time records and measurements and other sources such as the Department of Statistics. The WEAP model was run for three scenarios namely: Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, climate change (CC) scenario, and RDC scenario. In the BAU scenario, water demands and resource trends grow as expected or planned. In the CC scenario, climate change impacts on the resources; run-off and groundwater recharge and on the demands in the valley are imposed. Run-off and groundwater recharge are assumed to decline according to a certain formula, and irrigation demand is assumed to increase by 0.10%. In the RDC scenario, the RDC project which will provide about 550 MCM of desalinated water per year is assumed to be implemented by the year 2022. The results showed that without implementing the RDC project, the gap between supply and demand for Amman and Zarqa for domestic use as well as in the Jordan Valley for irrigation use will continue to grow until the year 2050 for both the BAU and the CC scenarios. However, by implementing the RDC, the domestic demand in both cities will be satisfied starting from the year 2022 till the year 2050. Furthermore, the deficit in the agricultural demand in the JV for the year 2050 will drop from about 195 MCM for the CC scenario to about 85 MCM for the RDC scenario as a result of the increased treated wastewater flow to the valley from AZB. The results also showed that groundwater resources that supply Amman and Zarqa from inside the basin as well as from outside the basin can be saved as a result of giving the supply preference to the RDC project.

Demand Forecasting in Apparel Industry in UAE

Identified the real time Demand Management practices within the UAE using secondary and primary research and developed a Ready to Use demand forecasting model for the Retail Apparel Industry in UAE to enable them improve their Service Levels at lower costs.

Understanding demand management challenges in intermediary food trading: a case study

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present the findings of a study into demand management practices in a trading organisation. It aims to bring together a number of key principles, including forecasting, promotions management and power, and examine how they impact the operations of the organisation. On the basis of its findings, the paper also aims to propose a framework for efficient use of forecasting resources.Design/methodology/approachA single case study approach was used. Iteratively designed semi‐structured interviews with different departments were used to identify the key challenges facing the organisation. Data analysis was then used to confirm some of the issues and identify emerging issues in the industry.FindingsIntermediary trading organisations in the UK food industry occupy a vulnerable position in their supply chains. For promotional products, in particular, the supply chains are characterised by unmatchable upstream‐downstream lead times and little flexibility in demand and supply requirements. Furthermore, consumers may be getting used to buying certain products only when they are on promotion.Practical implicationsTrading organisations suffer disproportionately from the inefficiencies of their supply chain and, consequently, need to take a leading role in co‐ordinating and synchronising supply chain activities. They also need to understand their supply chain positioning, relative power and the factors that are beyond their control.Originality/valueThe demand management operations and challenges of intermediary food traders have not previously been studied in great depth. The paper provides new knowledge and further contributes to academic thinking by proposing a forecasting framework.

Water Management in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

Mexico City Metropolitan Area has 20 million inhabitants, with population densities in some areas exceeding 13 500 persons/km2. The provision of water supplies and sanitation services in an efficient, equitable and timely manner presents a formidable management and investment challenges, which simply cannot be met under the existing conditions. The current approach has been almost exclusively on supply management: demand management practices have received inadequate attention. Unless the current management practices change radically, future solutions will require higher investment costs to transport more water from increasingly distant and expensive sources, with serious adverse economic, social and environmental impacts on the exporting regions and higher land subsidence rates in ZMCM due to ever-increasing groundwater withdrawals, among many others factors. It is essential to formulate a long-term integrated management plan, which does not exist at present, and which considers linkages to policies on urban development (an issue basically ignored thus far), migration, industry, energy, public health and environment. It is not an easy task, but, nevertheless, it is an essential one.

An assessment of the Spanish national hydrological plan

The paper is a comprehensive review of the Spanish National Hydrological Plan, which proposes to transfer water from the lower part of the Ebro River up to the Levante basins, around 912 km away. The National Hydrological Plan is a conventional, static plan, which focuses primarily on supply management. The plan is based on the explicit assumption that the world will change only incrementally during its entire economic life of 100-200 years. The analysis indicates that much of the increased water demands forecasted are unlikely to materialize due to increasing emphasis on demand management practices, major structural changes in the agricultural sector that will occur by 2020 and the requirements of the Water Directive of the European Union, which must be fulfilled by 2010. Even now, the cost per cubic metre of water delivered at the end of the transfer is nearly twice the cost of desalinated water. The National Hydrological Plan in its present form cannot be justified for economic, environmental and social reasons. In addition, the plan will not be necessary if demand management practices are implemented.

Sustainable water demand management versus developing new and additional water in the Middle East: a critical review

The scarcity of available water resources in the Middle East (ME) along with the occurrence of severe drought during the last two years has stimulated interest in minimizing regional water shortages by developing new and additional water using non-conventional options including large scale brackish and sea water desalination and water import projects. After a regional review is conducted of available water resources and uses, water demand projections, potential water development options, sustainable water demand management, and non-conventional water development options, it was concluded that (1) although most low-cost conventional resources in the region have already been developed, further potential exists, but marginal costs will increase rapidly, (2) the least cost solution for short and medium term water development for the ME is water conservation through water demand management practices, and (3) regional cooperation is required on the long-term to meet the future water needs through the development of new and additional water using non-conventional options.

4728222 Arrangement for collecting seepage water from depositories : Klaus Wiemer, Kronberg, Federal Republic Of Germany assigned to ED Zublin Aktiengesellschaft

The scarcity of available water resources in the Middle East (ME) along with the occurrence of severe drought during the last two years has stimulated interest in minimizing regional water shortages by developing new and additional water using non-conventional options including large scale brackish and sea water desalination and water import projects. After a regional review is conducted of available water resources and uses, water demand projections, potential water development options, sustainable water demand management, and non-conventional water development options, it was concluded that (1) although most low-cost conventional resources in the region have already been developed, further potential exists, but marginal costs will increase rapidly, (2) the least cost solution for short and medium term water development for the ME is water conservation through water demand management practices, and (3) regional cooperation is required on the long-term to meet the future water needs through the development of new and additional water using non-conventional options.