Demand For Grain Research Articles

Climate change and the current 'food crisis'.

Abstract Many reasons are being advanced for the current 'food crisis' including financial speculation, increased demand for grains, export bans on selected foodstuffs, inadequate grain stocks, higher oil prices, poor harvests and the use of crop lands for the production of biofuels. This paper reviews the present knowledge of recorded impacts of climate change and variability on crop production, in order to estimate its contribution to the current situation. Many studies demonstrate increased regional temperatures over the last 40 years (often through greater increases in minimum rather than maximum temperatures), but effects on crop yields are mixed. Distinguishing climate effects from changes in yield resulting from improved crop management and genotypes is difficult, but phenological changes affecting sowing, maturity and disease incidence are emerging. Anthropogenic factors appear to be a significant contributory factor to the observed decline in rainfall in southwestern and southeastern Australia, which reduced tradable wheat grain during 2007. Indirect effects of climate change through actions to mitigate or adapt to anticipated changes in climate are also evident. The amount of land diverted from crop production to biofuel production is small but has had a disproportionate effect on tradable grains from the USA. Adaptation of crop production practices and other components of the food system contributing to food security in response to variable and changing climates have occurred, but those households without adequate livelihoods are most in danger of becoming food insecure. Overall, we conclude that changing climate is a small contributor to the current food crisis but cannot be ignored.

Analysis of the benefits to wheat yield from assimilates stored prior to grain filling in a range of environments*

Grain yields of rainfed agriculture in Australia are often low and vary substantially from season to season. Assimilates stored prior to grain filling have been identified as important contributors to grain yield in such environments, but quantifying their benefit has been hampered by inadequate methods and large seasonal variability. APSIM-Nwheat is a crop system simulation model, consisting of modules that incorporate aspects of soil water, nitrogen (N), crop residues, crop growth and development. Model outputs were compared with detailed measurements of N fertilizer experiments on loamy soils at three locations in southern New South Wales, Australia. The field measurements allowed the routine for remobilization of assimilates stored prior to grain filling in the model to be tested for the first time and simulations showed close agreement with observed data. Analysing system components indicated that with increasing yield, both the observed and simulated absolute amount of remobilization generally increased while the relative contribution to grain yield decreased. The simulated relative contribution of assimilates stored prior to grain filling to grain yield also decreased with increasing availability of water after anthesis. The model, linked to long-term historical weather records was used to analyse yield benefits from assimilates stored prior to grain filling under rainfed conditions at a range of locations in the main wheat growing areas of Australia. Simulation results highlighted that in each of these locations assimilates stored prior to grain filling often contributed a significant proportion to grain yield. The simulated contribution of assimilates stored prior to grain filling to grain yield can amount to several tonnes per hectare, however, it varied substantially from 5–90% of grain yield depending on seasonal rainfall amount and distribution, N supply, crop growth and seasonal water use. High N application often reduced the proportion of water available after anthesis and decreased the relative contribution of remobilization to grain yield as long as grain yields increased, particularly on soils with greater water-holding capacity. Increasing the capacity or potential to accumulate pre-grain filling assimilates for later remobilization by 20% increased yields by a maximum of 12% in moderate seasons with terminal droughts, but had little effect in poor or very good seasons in which factors that affect the amount of carbohydrates stored rather than the storage capacity itself appeared to limit grain yield. These factors were, little growth due to water or N deficit in the weeks prior to and shortly after anthesis (when most of the assimilates accumulate for later remobilization), poor sink demand of grains due to low grain number as a result of little pre-anthesis growth or high photosynthetic rate during grain filling. Increasing the potential storage capacity for remobilization is expected to increase grain yield especially under conditions of terminal drought.

Relationship between leaf photosynthetic function at grain filling stage and yield in super high-yielding hybrid rice (Oryza sativa. L)

The characteristics of dry matter production before and after heading and the relationships between photosynthesis of flag leaves and dry matter accumulation in panicles were investigated on super high-yielding rice cv. Xieyou 9308 (the yield of up to 12 t/ha) with rice cv. Xieyou 63 as a control. The results showed that (i) the capacity of dry matter production before and after heading in Xieyou 9308, i.e. biomass and daily dry matter production, was remarkably higher than that in Xieyou 63, especially after heading; (ii) CO(2) assimilation capacity in flag leaves in Xieyou 9308, namely Leaf Source Capacity (LSC), was also significantly higher than that in Xieyou 63, and the supply of photosynthate in leaves and the demand of grain filling were completely synchronous in Xieyou 9308, but photosynthetic function in flag leaves in Xieyou 63 declined sharply 20 days after heading and it was not enough to meet the demand of grain filling. These results confirmed that high efficient photosynthetic function in leaves after heading and its complete synchronization with grain filling are the key approaches to super high yield of rice.

Feeding fears: competing discourses of interdependency, sovereignty, and China's food security

Following the release of the 1994 report ‘Who will feed China?’ by the Worldwatch Institute, there has been much debate over the implications of China's growing demand for grain. The question of China's food production has elicited a variety of responses. While for some it raises the specter of regional and global instability as China becomes an environmental threat, for others the entrance of China into the world market promises increased trade and profits. In this paper I explore the responses in China and the US to the different notions of interdependence which have shaped the debate. I first turn to how concerns over China's food supply have, despite appeals to the concepts of global environmental and economic interdependence, become linked to classical state-centered geopolitical concerns such as ‘sovereignty’ and ‘containment.’ I then look at how the debate has also been actively distanced from national security concerns through the invocation of an alternative interdependence founded on the logic of commerce. I conclude by arguing for the need within critical geopolitics to further examine the circulation of strategic texts between and within states, particularly in the analysis of texts that map worlds beyond the boundaries of North America and Europe.

The Evolution of World Grain Trade

AbstractOver the course of history, world grain trade has developed from the stage where grain was only shipped as incidental cargo to its status today, an industry in which thousands of tons of grain move daily. As a share of total consumption, traded grain has risen from less than 0.03% in the eighteenth century to more than 10% today. This explosion in trade volume has relied on communication and measurement technology, which has made information about grain available to buyers and sellers. As we enter the twenty‐first century, the information component of demand for grain will continue to expand, thereby threatening to overwhelm the current infrastructure.

China's feed grain market: Development and prospects

The future growth of demand for grains in China is expected to be driven mainly by the growth of feed grain demand. Continued population growth and high incomes will lead to a sustained increase in consumption of animal products, while scarce land and water resources will limit expansion in grain production, leading to growing pressure for increasing grain imports. This article analyses feed grain and animal product markets and policy options in China. The major conclusion is that the requirement for feed grains will be determined by the quantity of animal products produced, the methods used, the price of feed sources, the price of animal products, and government policy. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Changing patterns of alcohol consumption in rural China: Implications for the grain sector

This paper applies a demand model to examine alcohol consumption in rural China. Its objective is to investigate alcohol consumption patterns and their determinants in rural households. The empirical analysis is based on survey data of 1,000 rural households located in twenty counties within five provinces of China. The main issues considered include the effects of household income and demographic characteristics such as age, education, household size, location and occupation, on alcohol consumption. This study is the first of its kind and has important policy implications. In particular this study can shed light on the future demand for grain in China. Alcohol production is one of the major industrial users of grain. Changes in alcohol consumption patterns can directly affect the demand for grain in the future. It is an issue of great strategic significance for both China and the rest of the world.

The future of China's grain market

China's demand for grain is likely to outpace domestic supplies in the next 10 years, according to ERS projections. By the year 2005, China will become a net importer of 32 million metric tons of grain annually. In the last two decades, China's grain trade has expanded dramatically, both as a buyer and a seller. Both China and the United States are major grain producers. How the grain trade between the two nations develops will be important to both agricultural economies. It is doubtful that China's farmers will be able to produce enough grain to keep pace with population gains and increased demand for feed grains to produce meat, eggs, and milk products for consumers.

The Public Purchase of Grain on Independent Delos

Earlier work has tended to view Delos as an entrepôt for the larger Hellenistic grain trade, but during the years of independence (314-167 B.C.) the island relied on the import of grain to satisfy local demand, and this was certainly the more important aspect of the trade in grain, at least from the Delians' point of view. This study explores several issues connected with the local supply of grain. From prices for grain reported in inscriptions and estimates of the local population, the aggregate annual demand for grain is estimated, and the price structure of grain derived; the ratio of wheat and barley prices on Delos is found to differ considerably from that known from Athens and Roman Egypt. The shortage of 282 B.C., assumed by earlier scholars from prices recorded for that year, is shown instead to be a period of atypically low prices. The impact of the sailing season on shipments of grain is explored, and an annual rhythm in grain prices and availability linked to the closure of the sea and the agricultural year is revealed. The Delians tried to reduce the impact of these fluctuations by the public purchase of grain on an irregular basis in the late fourth and third century, as attested through public loans; by the last quarter of the third century they had established a regular sitōnia fund to buy grain for resale at reduced prices. Comparison of funds available, grain prices, and the estimated aggregate demand suggest that the Delian sitōnia was able to cover a significant fraction of local demand; this contrasts with evidence from other cities. Some of the implications of these results for our understanding of the Hellenistic economy are briefly explored.

A tale of two towns: Buntingford and Standon in the later middle ages

The controversy over the fortunes of English towns in the later middle ages has tended to generate more heat than light. Much of the evidence employed in this debate has been drawn from the larger English towns, but this essay suggests a widening of the research agenda to include a more systematic assessment of small towns and village markets. Although weakened by the reduced demand for grain after the Black Death, these places competed for the growing local trade in basic consumer goods. Evidence from northeast Hertfordshire reveals that this competition resulted in a significant restructuring of the hierarchy of local marketing centres, and a decline in the ability of seigneurial and urban authorities to regulate trading activity.

Central Planners as Market Stabilizers: Evidence from Poland and the Soviet Union

The ability of planners in Poland and the U.S.S.R. to recognize and act to eliminate market disequilibrium in the markets for grain and meat is tested by means of an econometric model of grain and meat production, consumption, and trade. Planners' perceptions of excess demand for grain, meat, and foreign exchange are shown to influence production and trade decisions in a way that tends to reduce excess demand or supply. Nevertheless, the markets for grain, meat, and foreign exchange are shown to be characterized by excess demand or supply for much of the sample period. Copyright 1992 by MIT Press.

SOURCE-SINK LIMITATIONS OF MAIZE GROWING IN AN OUTDOOR HYDROPONIC SYSTEM

Experiments were conducted from 1983 to 1985 to test the hypothesis that rate of dry matter accumulation by maize (Zea mays L.) during grain filling can be enhanced by an increase in assimilate demand for grain filling (i.e., sink strength).The sink strength of maize plants grown in an outdoor hydroponic system was varied independently of the source strength by manipulating the plant spacing during the period in which final kernel number is established. The crop growth rate during grain filling, the dry matter of leaves, stems, ears and roots, and grain yield components were determined. In all 3 yr the crop growth rate during grain filling of plants that had been growing at a 20 000 plants ha−1 spacing for variable periods and were returned to the control density of 80 000 plants ha−1 at the start of the grain-filling period was lower than that of plants grown continuously at a spacing of 80 000 plants ha−1. In 1985, plants grown at 20 000 plants ha−1 from 3 wk preanthesis until 2 wk postanthesis and at 80 000 plants ha−1 thereafter had 50% more kernels per plant than the control plants. However, the net photosynthesis during grain filling was not increased; in fact it was somewhat lower. Final grain yield was not significantly different, mainly due to greater translocation from the stems to the grain in the spaced plants than in the controls. These studies indicate that maize growing in a nonlimiting below-ground environment is not sink limited. Hence adding sink capacity by maintaining kernel number while increasing plant density or by adding more kernels per plant would not appear to be a promising route for raising the yield potential.Key words: Sink strength, hydroponics, plant spacing, kernel number, yield components

Demand for feed inputs in the Greek livestock sector

This paper tests alternative hypotheses on the determinants of derived demand for grains for a middle income country. The approach of estimating a multiple-input/multiple-output production technology in two stages is extended to introduce aggregators for the various components that constitute the feed input. The parameters that describe the changes in the production technology in Greece during the period 1960–1981 may approximately describe the stylized facts of any middle-income developing country that has undergone a rapidly increasing demand for animal protein. If so, the results may have broader applicability. They indicate that the introduction of new capital/feed-intensive techniques in production, induced by changing input prices, leads to higher grain intensity, higher meat output and lower product prices.

A model of import demand for grain in the Soviet Union

During the 1970s, the Soviet Union moved from being a net exporter to a net importer of grain. Conventional market models are inappropriate for the analysis of this import demand, since trade in a centrally planned economy is administratively determined rather than being a market activity. This article develops a model of import demand for grain in the Soviet Union, based on Soviet perceptions of the purposes and processes of foreign trade. Behavioural aspects of import demand are emphasized in developing the model, and while it may be of some use in forecasting import demand, its prime purpose is explanatory.

Agriculture in the Soviet Union and China: Implications for Trade: Discussion

reforms makes for a far more dramatic subject than a poorly performing economy with systemic inability to change. Therefore, even if I possessed more than a vague understanding of Soviet agriculture, the temptation to devote most of my comments to China would be irresistible. And the most relevant question to address concerning the Soviet Union is why can not they do the same? Sicular' s paper captures the essentials of the grain-meat-trade nexus in China. In particular, she notes the shift in emphasis from direct grain consumption to indirect consumption through meat and egg production which is underway in China, driven both by rapid increases in grain supply and differential income elasticities of demand. This is accompanied by changes in meat production technology from traditional, apparently grain-saving techniques, to more concentrate-intensive techniques; however, the effect of this change should be to increase feeding productivity, i.e., to improve feed conversion ratios. Even so, the shift from a diet based on vegetable protein to one more dependent on animal protein likely will lead to increases in total demand for grain which in the long run outrun supply. Hence Sicular's projection of a continued net import demand for grain is well justified. However, through an understanding of some developments which she has ignored, the meat-grain-trade nexus can be further clarified, and our ability to predict future trends sharpened. To be specific, the amount of grain marketed is at least as important a variable as the amount produced, and the analysis of trends in official procurement prices should be deepened to consider changes in the relationship between free market prices and official procurement prices as well as the proportions of marketings sold at each price. Finally, growth in stocks has been more important than growth in feed demand in absorbing increased output in the last few years. Let me reinterpret recent trends with emphasis on these aspects of the analysis, for some of which little or no official documentation exists.

Outlook for the grain market

With all the indications suggesting that the current imbalance between supply of and demand for grain will continue for the foreseeable future, and with a steady surplus both keeping prices down and forcing on governments measures to reduce output and stocks, attention is turning to South East Asia, a region which, due to the rapid growth of both its population and per capita income, seems to offer the best prospects of medium and long-term increases in demand. How realistic are the hopes that South East Asia will be able to absorb a substantial part of the world's grain surplus?

Perspectives for grain production in the U.S.S.R.

Over the past ten years, increased variability of weather has caused a substantial shortfall in grain production in the U.S.S.R. This shortfall has a very great effect on the whole Soviet economy and also on the global balance of grain supply and demand. To overcome the shortage of grain the U.S.S.R. has increased purchases of grain on the international market sevenfold above the level of the early 1970's. The U.S.S.R. is also attempting some measures to increase grain output in the country, but the rate of this increase is not compatible with the growing Soviet demand for grain. In addition to the impact of weather, Soviet economics, natural resources and other factors create some limitations for successful fulfillment of their goals. A thorough insight of these problems will help in the assessment of the future potential for grain production in the U.S.S.R. which is the world's second largest grain producer and the largest grain importing nation.

Interpreting Chinese Grain Consumption Statistics

The level of grain consumption per head is by far the most important indicator of human welfare in China. It is therefore not surprising that the provision of food grain dominates official discussions of economic policy. Since 1978 the demand for grain has been raised significantly by the acceleration of incomes, following 20 years of stagnation, although the effect of this has been mitigated by the decline in the rate of growth of population, from 2·4 per cent per year (1970–74) to 1·2 per cent (1978–80). The demand for grain for direct consumption has not yet reached saturation in most parts of China and consumption rises with income per head. The demand for fine grain (rice, wheat and soya) is more income elastic than that for coarse grain such as millet, maize and especially sweet potatoes. In addition, the Chinese people are pressing to improve their diet by consuming more livestock products, the production of which requires large quantities of grain. In spite of the fact that grain is rationed, restricted “demand” as laid down by the Government cannot be met from domestic production and China is a large grain importer. Accurate estimates of food grain consumption are thus essential if we are to assess correctly the current state of the Chinese economy and its future trends.

Food as a weapon? The embargo on grain trade between USA and USSR

The grain embargo, introduced by the United States on the USSR after the invasion of Afghanistan, reduced Russian grain supplies by about six million tonnes in 1979/80. This resulted in some reduction in meat output, but the effects were not as great as had been anticipated as the Russians were able to find alternative sources of supply for much of the embargoed grain. The embargo resulted in the United States' grain prices falling, although this was partly prevented by the United States government purchasing grain destined for the Russian market. Costs to the United States government and taxpayer were kept down by the government reselling this grain for export during the summer of 1980. Despite some shuffling of markets between suppliers, the grain market has more or less returned to normal, helped by strong world demand for grain.

THE NONCHERNOZEM DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM AND PROSPECTIVE SPATIAL SHIFTS IN GRAIN PRODUCTION IN THE AGRICULTURAL TRIANGLE OF THE SOVIET UNION

The Soviet program to proceed from further expansion of the grain area in the semi-arid steppe zone to intensification of graingrowing in the humid Nonchernozem Zone after decades of neglect is considered a landmark decision in the history of Soviet agriculture. If successfully carried out, the Nonchernozem program might yield by the late 1980s a grain increment equivalent to the amount now being imported by the Soviet Union for its own needs and for re-export to its allies. The implementation of the Non-chernozem program would also have consequences for regional grain-production patterns in the Soviet Union. The Nonchernozem Zone would be in a position to make a more significant contribution to the demand for grain in the industrial centers of European Russia, thus easing the pressure on the virgin lands of northern Kazakhstan and reducing the need for the present long grain hauls. Finally, a greater shift of grain production into the humid Nonchernozem would be in keeping with a program of water economi...