The core-periphery structure is a typical representative of the mesoscale structure in networks, which dominates the basic and potential function of the networked systems. In reality, networks inevitably face attacks, among which localized attacks have received much increasing attention since they provide efficient models for typical disruptive scenarios. However, existing research primarily focuses on a single localized attack, with limited studies addressing multiple localized attacks, particularly regarding the impact on core-periphery structures. Here we propose a framework for multiple localized attacks and introduce a new index to assess the vulnerability of core-periphery structure within our framework. Enhancing algorithm based on the proposed framework and index is exquisitely designed. Experimental results indicate that the algorithm can effectively measure and enhance the robustness of core-periphery structure within a limited defense budget. Furthermore, we discover the structural characteristics of the network that influence its core-periphery vulnerability. The interesting differences in defense strategies when optimizing various networks are also discussed.

The purpose of the article is to identify, systematise and typologise the tools and macroeconomic challenges to the sustainability of public finances in the context of the current struggle for Ukraine's independence (the Russian-Ukrainian war) and the European integration orientation of the ontogenesis of the system for managing them. Methodology. The methodology is based on a multi-approach that combines empirical data on the structural and qualitative parameters of the functioning of the public finance system, econometric modelling of its parameters, and a "heat matrix" for visualising and developing practical recommendations for ensuring the sustainability of public finances during the Russian-Ukrainian war. Results. Empirical research has shown that defence spending has the greatest impact on the structure of state budget expenditure, with each increase of 1 billion UAH leading to an increase in total expenditure of 1.32 billion UAH (β₃ = 1,3178, p = 0,005). A comprehensive correlation analysis of macrofinancial indicators confirmed the high dependence of tax revenues on the macroeconomic context (r ≈ 0.99) and an inverse correlation between defence spending and the budget balance (r ≈ -0.61), which demonstrates the mechanism of deficit formation in conditions of armed conflict. Based on forecast models, it has been established that the budget deficit could be reduced from 20.4% of GDP in 2024 to 4.5% in 2027, provided that international financial support for Ukraine's sovereignty and its European integration aspirations remains united. Practical significance of the study. The developed integrated model for assessing the sustainability of public finances provides public authorities with scientifically sound recommendations on optimising the allocation of fiscal resources and attracting domestic and external sources of financing in extreme conditions marked by armed conflict. The set of macro-financial indicators and approaches to monitoring fiscal risks proposed in the study serves as a practical tool for the rapid assessment of critical changes in public finances and the timely adjustment of budgetary and tax policies, taking into account the triggers identified in sectoral documents that determine the architecture of the public finance management system. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the construction of a comprehensive model for assessing the sustainability of public finances, adapted to the extreme conditions of armed conflict, which synthesises econometric modelling with multifaceted correlation analysis. A key innovation is the establishment of the fact that fiscal sustainability depends not only on orthodox debt and deficit indicators, but also on systemic interaction, expressed through the transmission mechanism of the tax base, the volume of external financing and the structure of budget expenditures. This corresponds to the conditions of the new normal in public finance and is in line with Ukrainian academic discourse on assessing the sustainability of public finances, taking into account the needs of early post-war recovery.

Guns versus butter for economic growth: a disaggregated analysis of the impact of military expenditure

ABSTRACT Recent geopolitical changes have given rise to new challenges placing significant pressure on NATO member states to increase their military spending. Consequently, the question of whether these expenses stimulate economic growth has re-emerged in public debate. This paper provides new evidence regarding this longstanding question which is becoming even more relevant. Using time-series analysis, a growth model has been estimated using an ARDL approach to cointegration to examine the long-run relationship between these variables in a sample of 15 NATO countries over the last 50 years or so. The results show that in eight of these countries – namely Belgium, Canada, France, Greece, Italy, Sweden, Turkey and United States –, military expenditure is positively and statistically significant. The evidence suggests that military spending does not harm growth and may even contribute to it in the long-run. Nevertheless, higher levels of expenditure in relation to that of other countries does not necessarily correspond to a stronger relationship with growth. This implies that the economic effects of increased military spending are highly heterogeneous across member states. It is hoped that the findings presented in this paper can be of use for both academics and decision-makers alike, especially in the current challenging international context.

ABSTRACT Russia’s perceived expansionist aims and the United States' shift towards an “America First” policy have driven NATO member states to boost defence spending significantly. At the recent NATO summit in The Hague, members agreed to raise defence expenditures to 5% of GDP, allocating 3.5% to military capabilities and 1.5% to infrastructure and cybersecurity. This paper explores the implications of this target, focusing on which NATO countries are best positioned to meet it and which may struggle. It compares current defence spending with the new goals, assessing the fiscal feasibility of these increases through taxation or public debt. The analysis also considers how strong domestic defence industries may benefit certain states economically. The study evaluates which member states are likely to gain from increased military spending and which may fall short, highlighting the uneven capacity among NATO members to adapt to this ambitious defence agenda.

Aim: The study aims to investigate the balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability by examining how energy imports, CO₂ emissions, and fossil fuel consumption are influenced by various macroeconomic factors in G7 countries from 1974 to 2023. Method: The research employs panel data analysis covering the years 1974–2023 for G7 countries. The dependent variables are energy imports, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and fossil fuel consumption, while the independent variables include inflation, natural gas and oil rents, population growth, patent applications, foreign direct investment, market capitalization, exports, number of listed companies, and military expenditures. Results: The findings reveal a complex and multifaceted relationship between economic growth and environmental sustainability. Economic activity and energy consumption interact in ways that require careful policy attention, especially regarding carbon emissions and fossil fuel dependence. Conclusion: The study concludes that environmental policies should not be perceived as barriers to economic growth. On the contrary, when aligned with sustainable development goals, such policies can support long-term welfare. Promoting low-carbon energy sources and reducing fossil fuel dependency are highlighted as key strategies for achieving both economic and environmental objectives.

ABSTRACT This paper introduces a novel application of the Lotka-Volterra model to analyze the dynamic interplay between military and civilian government spending in the United States from 1960 to 2019. Drawing on the classical ‘guns versus butter’ framework, we conceptualize military spending as a predator and civilian spending as prey, both constrained by GDP as a shared resource. By constructing a system of nonlinear differential equations, we model inter-sectoral competition, long-term memory effects, and time-varying growth and carrying capacities. The model reveals strong asymmetries in budgetary interaction: military expenditures exert a disproportionately negative impact on civilian spending, while being more sensitive to shared constraints, suggesting a prey-like vulnerability. Using a genetic algorithm for parameter estimation, we demonstrate that shifts in growth rates and sectoral capacities correspond closely with historical inflection points, such as the Cold War and the War on Terror. Our findings offer compelling evidence of Lotka-Volterra-like oscillatory behavior in public budget allocation, underscoring the strategic dominance of military priorities over social investments. This dynamic modeling approach provides new insights into the systemic trade-offs embedded in fiscal policy and raises critical questions about the sustainability of militarized economic strategies.

Wars have multiple complex effects on population health. Countries suffer extensively from disruptions to their societies, economies, and environment. Understanding the pathways of disruption helps to adapt and mitigate the catastrophic effects of war. We used a previously published 12-dimensional framework on the health impacts of war to derive pathways of influence under three phases. The first phase, before overt aggression, includes economic sanctions, trade wars, and embargoes, often combined with covert military action and disrupted supply chains, infrastructure, and health services. The second phase of overt aggression has multiple direct and indirect effects on health: (a) morbidity and mortality; (b) population displacements with psychosocial implications; (c) opportunity costs from military expenditures often reversing economic growth and widening inequalities; (d) environmental degradation; (e) air and soil pollution from explosives; (f) destroyed infrastructure include housing, basic amenities, and health infrastructure; (g) destroyed arable land, deforestation, and loss of biodiversity; (h) and contamination of water sources. The third phase occurs during peace negotiations and when peace appears and consists of long-term effects. The latter includes transgenerational impacts on human well-being. Considering the wide health, social, and environmental implications of wars lasting for generations, we reiterate the call for an "end to all wars."

This journal article analyses the trends in the strategic environment (lingstra) that underlie the formulation of Minimum Essential Force (MEF) stages I, II, and III, and evaluates the process of preparing Indonesia’s defence spending from 2020 to 2025. The analysis uses a qualitative approach and secondary data documentation from the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Development Planning Agency. The article presents the dynamics of policies and the process of formulating the defence expenditure budget, including a comparison between the proposed and approved budgets. It also includes data on financing components from Pure Rupiah Funds, as well as domestic and foreign financing. The findings show that global and regional strategic environmental factors, such as geopolitical competition, military modernization in neighbouring countries, and advancements in defence technology, significantly influence Indonesia’s defence priorities.

Abstract American presidents since 1945 have deliberately considered reducing defence spending as part of a plan to shrink deficits, but they have also found there is a level of defence spending they dare not fall beneath. Using qualitative analysis, I examine the rhetoric these leaders have articulated to consider the trade‐offs between the economic costs of deficit spending and the military budgets necessary to defend the nation against military threats. Part One of this study (published in Economic Affairs , vol. 45, no. 3) examined rhetoric through the Lyndon B. Johnson administration. Part Two examines rhetoric from the Nixon through Biden administrations, analyses the total results and, finally, sets out the contribution of this research. These results inform debates over the US national debt, deficit spending, and the mixture of spending cuts and revenue increases needed to achieve a balanced budget.

There are several types of taxes in Indonesia and Estonia, one of which is VAT. In 2025, Indonesian government increased the VAT rate to 12% specifically for the luxury goods category, while the VAT rate for non-luxury goods remains at 11%. The VAT increase aims to increase state revenue in the long term it can support development and encourage economic recovery. Meanwhile, in Estonia, the current VAT rate is 22% and is planned to increase in early 2026 to 24%. If state revenue continues to improve or even exceeds expectations, the government plans to strengthen the budget for defense spending or reduce the burden of personal income tax. This study aims to analyze the implementation of the applicable taxation systems in both countries. The research method uses a qualitative approach that involves a systematic literature review through a data on the internet to obtain references, journals, articles, or legal-based information related to the research object. The research results show that there are differences in the implementation of the taxation system as well as the impacts and challenges faced by the two countries in implementing VAT.

Abstract Early studies of policy termination focused on identifying the drivers and barriers to ending programs, such as the emergence of fiscal and other exigencies, which can lead to policy and program cancellation, but also noted that such factors do not always lead to closure. More recent work has advanced thinking on the subject and acknowledged a wider range of possible policy choices beyond simple cancellation, including modest reform or termination of small parts of a policy and more substantial partial dismantling, and in so doing has altered the nature of the field. Both these literatures to date, however, have struggled to identify the underlying reasons for alternative courses of action, focusing almost exclusively on the relative strengths and balance of power of social coalitions promoting termination versus those supporting the status quo, which is at best indicative. This logic also fails to deal with terminations that occur in spheres where social actors are less prominent, which are the subject of this article. The article uses examples from defense policy and military spending in Canada to examine the rise, cancellation, resurrection, and downscaling of several interlinked major naval weapons programs over the period 1975–2025 in order to explore the dynamics present in state-driven terminations. It focuses particular attention on the role of changing government commitments to programs and requests desired by armed forces, highlighting program continuation when government-service visions remain aligned and termination or dismantling when they do not.

ABSTRACT The return of Donald Trump to the US Presidency in 2025 has dramatically impacted the EU’s fiscal framework. In response to Trump's aims to disengage the US from guaranteeing the security of Europe, the EU has triggered the national safeguard clause of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), the centerpiece of the EU fiscal rules, reformed in 2024 after three years of suspension because of the pandemic. The decision exempts member states, for four years, from complying with the EU deficit rules for defense expenditures. At the same time, Germany, the member state championing fiscal stability, ditched decades of commitment to Schwarze null and passed a constitutional amendment which enables annual spending of over 1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense in derogation of the Schuldebremse, the constitutional debt brake (formally remained operative for the other spending). The Trump effect thus led the EU to set aside EU and national fiscal rules again to increase defense spending. The outcome is an EU operating in a sort of fiscal limbo.

Oceans are increasingly shaped by climate change, biodiversity loss, geopolitical tensions and maritime crime and insecurity. Climate-smart marine spatial planning (CSMSP) has emerged as a governance framework to integrate climate action, conservation, and equity into ocean planning. However, defense institutions–key actors in maritime security and major greenhouse gas emitters–remain absent from CSMSP discourse. This paper argues that integrating defense into CSMSP offers strategic and climate benefits: minimizing defense-driven offshore wind cancellation and thus accelerating approval, safeguarding environmental protection and undersea critical energy infrastructure, accelerating decarbonization through the military's green transition, and addressing the defense emissions gap. Yet, integration carries significant risks: power asymmetries, spatial exclusion, ecological harm, and militarization of green energy. To reconcile security imperatives with sustainability, transparency and equity, the paper proposes governance pathways: transparent data sharing, conflict-resolution and co-existence protocols, and defense marine zoning. “However, the paper warns that while green defense initiatives have climate benefits, there are reasons to curb our enthusiasm”. Specifically, rising global military spending and the resultant mineral-intensive extractivism to support war-readiness threaten to overshadow these benefits by locking in carbon-heavy supply chains and amplifying upstream emissions, environmental degradation, and social disposability. Aligning national security with climate security thus requires more than technological greening: it requires transparent cradle-to-grave emissions, and strategic restraint in defense spending, war-readiness, and material efficiency. Ultimately, integrating defense into CSMSP is not merely a technical exercise but a normative challenge that will determine whether ocean governance advances sustainability and transparency or succumbs to securitized emissions and green extractivism.

ABSTRACT Cities throughout the U.S. South created local planning institutions and engaged with urban planning professionals beginning in the early 1900s to address longstanding problems of unregulated development and blighted urban conditions. Central to the planning process was an effort to codify spatial segregation of black residences and businesses through implementation of racial zoning. The unconstitutionality of racial zoning shifted the strategy to embedding racial data in local planning processes to provide guidance to public investment and planning initiatives to sustain residential segregation. The increasing role of federal investments in military spending, urban renewal, highway development, and public housing from the 1930s through the 1960s accelerated transformation of center city neighborhoods while sustaining the segregation system. Concurrently, these planned interventions contributed to expansion of the city footprint and transformation of the South by the early 21st century to the region in the US whose urban social spatial structure was dominated by sprawl. Within this new urban pattern, however, southern center cities retained residential segregation of their black population. While no longer sanctioned by law, racial residential segregation remained a defining facet of southern urban life and largely attributable to the region's planning legacy.

ABSTRACT This study examines the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth across 39 European countries from 2000 to 2023. Distinct from prior research that typically employs a single productivity indicator, this study utilizes both the Malmquist productivity index and the Luenberger productivity index. It incorporates an undesirable output, specifically CO 2 emissions, and employs a bootstrap approach to address the influence of outliers. The findings reveal divergent results, with the productivity measure derived from the Malmquist index surpassing that of the Luenberger index. Furthermore, this study identifies reduced efficiency because of suboptimal resource allocation, particularly when undesirable outcomes are considered. Notably, the inclusion of CO 2 emissions in the estimations indicates a detrimental effect on the technological progress of European economies, whereas military expenditures exert a positive impact within a broader framework encompassing both economic and environmental objectives. While effective strategies for sustaining military spending are essential for future gains, the results underscore the importance of aligning expenditures with sustainability goals, presenting a complex yet crucial challenge for policymakers.

Purpose This study examines government budgeting for anti-corruption organisations and its ability to increase transparency and reduce corruption in Thailand. It also considers government effectiveness (GE), control of corruption (CC), regulatory quality (RQ), voice and accountability, political stability and military spending (MS) as factors influencing greater national transparency. Design/methodology/approach With the quantitative approach, the linear regression is applied to test the relationship between related budgeting factors and the level of transparency (LT). Data included in the study were collected for 20 years, ranging from 2003 to 2022. The data related to the budget allocated are manually collected from the annual report of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) and the Office of Public Sector Anti-Corruption Commission (PACC), while some indicators are collected from the global economy and World Bank databases. Findings The findings suggest that budget spending on anti-corruption organisations is negatively associated with transparency. This is not surprising in a developing country, where increased government spending alone can lead to a higher rate of corruption due to the opportunities it creates for misusing public funds and the potential inefficiencies of the organisations. However, when combined with high GE, budget spending becomes more effective in increasing transparency. This suggests that budget spending alone does not reduce corruption; it must be paired with effective governance. The findings also indicate that greater political instability and higher MS correlate with lower transparency, particularly when military oversight is weak. Conversely, stronger RQ enhances transparency. Research limitations/implications Limitations of this research include the unavailability of disaggregated anti-corruption budget data (HL and ML) outside Thailand, which precluded direct replication of the core model in the SEA sample. Our fixed-effects approach controlled for unobserved, time-invariant heterogeneity and global shocks, but finer-grained variables, such as enforcement capacity, media freedom or civil-society strength could further illuminate the mechanisms at work. Practical implications Practical implications suggest that policy prescriptions cannot rely solely on increased funding or regulatory design. They must strengthen institutional capacity and accountability to translate resources into genuine transparency gains. Originality/value As the effectiveness of budget allocation in reducing corruption, especially in developing countries like Thailand, remains questionable, this study highlights literature to document the effectiveness of the budget system in increasing the transparency level of government activities. The study also extends to test the effectiveness of budgeting on Southeast Asian countries, including Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam. The results add to the literature that GE and higher CC help to increase the LT in these countries.

This article examines the suitable options for financing the defense budget, the budget classification methodology, and an optimal financial allocation methodology from a systems perspective. In the current era of increasing globalization, new conditions in international relations, and increasing regional security risks, the need for rational planning of defense policy and expenditure structures is increasing. In this research, the importance of four main principles of top priority, developing versions, ensuring balance, and goal program planning is determined. An algorithm to classify defense budgets using a systematic methodology is developed and compared to international experience, and possible solutions to adopt in Mongolia are presented. The quantitative analysis on the economic influence of military spending using “Multivariate Linear Regression”, “Arch”, and ТҮЛХҮҮР ҮГ: Budget, finance, budget, classification, goal program, economic security Var” models based on statistical data from 1997-2024 revealed that the correlation between military spending and economic growth is weak. However, it is concluded that increasing defense spending is strategically important for strengthening security capabilities and stability in the long term. This research concluded that the minimum level of defense spending as a share of GDP in the medium term should be 0.73%-1.25%, the maximum level should be 0.85%-1.53%, and in the long term, it is necessary to increase it to 2% at the policy level. Therefore, the article highlights the effectiveness of the adoption of a goal-based and program-based financing system in military budget planning, allocating resources rationally, and increasing financial transparency

ABSTRACT Developments in uncrewed military technologies have led some to proclaim the emergence of an uncrewed revolution in military affairs (RMA). Though uncrewed systems and autonomous platforms are thought to revolutionise warfare, evidence suggests that these technologies are instead technological evolutions within the larger information revolution. Historical technologies, such as the English Longbow and the tank, present comparable instances where novel military technologies have been overprescribed as revolutionary due to tactical capabilities, but were constrained by innovative counter-measures and failed to change warfare to the degree which constitutes an RMA. Despite claims of an uncrewed RMA, uncrewed systems have yet to alter strategic outcomes, render conventional forces obsolete, or fundamentally reshape the strategic level of warfighting, yet stakeholder hype may be influencing defence spending and readiness initiatives. Understanding the capabilities of uncrewed systems transcends semantic debate; instead, it is crucial for informed defence planning.

ABSTRACT Since 2012 Japan has been on a path of revising its defence posture, increasingly embracing realist ideas of hard-power deterrence over its traditional engagement-focused strategy. The 2022 National Security Strategy not only provides a continuation to these policies, but offers a notable shift through the emphasis on acquiring standoff weapons, i.e. weapon systems that offer long-range strike capabilities. The adoption of these weapons is an understandable move within the current security environment, however there are concerns about Japan’s ability to acquire and successfully field them on scale. The Defence Buildup Plan is highly dependent on boosting economic growth to pay for the increased defence budget and to fend off public criticism, but it is unclear whether Japan can successfully achieve this needed economic growth. From a regional security perspective, the acquisition of standoff weapons will boost Japan’s ability to be a more active participant, but it will also exacerbate existing tensions, especially with China.