Decrease In HIV Incidence Research Articles

Gender and Age Trends in HIV Incidence in Turkey between 1990 and 2021: Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analyses.

Background and Objectives: Despite a global decrease in HIV incidence, recent trends in Türkiye indicate a concerning rise, particularly among younger populations and women. This study investigates the local and regional dynamics influencing these trends using advanced epidemiological methodologies. Material and Methods: Utilizing Age-period-cohort analysis and joinpoint regression, we analysed HIV incidence and prevalence data from the Global Burden of Disease study for Türkiye. These methods allowed for a detailed examination of changes over time, identifying specific age groups and periods with significant shifts in incidence rates. Results: Key findings include a 13.03% increase in annual percentage change among males aged 15-19 and an 11.37% increase among females in the same age group. Additionally, the incidence rates among females have shown a significant rise after 2008. Conclusions: The rising HIV incidence in Türkiye reflects complex socio-economic, cultural, and biological factors, with significant increases among young people and women. Addressing these challenges requires targeted interventions, comprehensive educational programs, and inclusive healthcare services to align with global efforts and commitments. The study underscores the importance of incorporating young people in decision-making processes to effectively combat HIV in Türkiye.

Racial inequities in HIV incidence among men who have sex with men prior to and amidst an Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative.

The aim of this study was to examine trends in HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) relative to the scale up of Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiatives, including biomedical prevention strategies, and to describe racial inequities over time. A cross-sectional study, matching annual cohorts of New York City (NYC) Sexual Health Clinic (SHC) patients from 2010 to 2018 to the citywide HIV registry to identify seroconversions during 1 year of follow-up, through 2019. We examined HIV incidence for each annual cohort of MSM using diagnoses within 1 year after last negative HIV test. We calculated incidence rates and rate ratios (IRR) pooled across 3-year intervals (2010-2012, 2013-2015, 2016-2018) by race/ethnicity, age, neighborhood poverty level, recent STI diagnosis, and condom use during anal sex. There were 36 156 study visits among MSM attending NYC SHCs, including 37% among White MSM and 63% among MSM of color. From 2010 to 2018, HIV incidence decreased overall from 2.82 to 0.82/100 person-years, and among all race/ethnicity, age, poverty, STI, and condom use subgroups. For 2010-2012 vs. 2016-2018, adjusted IRRs (95% CI) increased for Black MSM [1.8 (1.3-2.6) vs. 6.0 (3.5-10.2)], Latino MSM [1.4 (1.0-2.0) vs. 4.0 (2.3-6.8)], and MSM of other races [1.0 (0.6-1.7) vs. 2.5 (1.3-4.9)] compared with White MSM. Black and Latino MSM seroconverted at significantly higher rates than White MSM in the same age groups and neighborhood poverty level. Despite decreases in HIV incidence among MSM, racial inequities were exacerbated over time. Addressing structural factors that impact racial inequities in risk of HIV should undergird EHE initiatives.

Community- and individual-level correlates of HIV incidence in HPTN 071 (PopART).

Universal HIV testing and treatment aims to identify all people living with HIV and offer them treatment, decreasing the number of individuals with unsuppressed HIV and thus reducing HIV transmission. Longitudinal follow-up of individuals with and without HIV in a cluster-randomized trial of communities allowed for the examination of community- and individual-level measures of HIV risk and HIV incidence. HPTN 071 (PopART) was a three-arm cluster-randomized trial conducted between 2013 and 2018 that evaluated the use of two combination HIV prevention strategies implemented at the community level to reduce HIV incidence compared to the standard of care. The trial, conducted in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa, measured HIV incidence over 36 months in a population cohort of ∼2000 randomly selected adults per community aged 18-44. Multilevel models were used to assess the association between HIV incidence and community- and individual-level socio-demographic and behavioural risk factors, as well as prevalence of detectable virus (PDV) defined as the estimated proportion of the community with unsuppressed viral load. Overall HIV incidence was 1.49/100 person-years. Communities with less financial wealth and communities with more individuals reporting having sex partners outside of the community or two or more sexual partners had higher HIV incidence. PDV at 2 years of study was 6.8% and was strongly associated with HIV incidence: for every 50% relative reduction in community PDV, there was a 49% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 37%-58%, p < 0.001) relative decrease in HIV incidence. At the individual level; socio-economic status, AUDIT score, medical male circumcision and certain sexual behaviours were associated with HIV risk. Using data from the PopART randomized trial, we found several associations of HIV incidence with community-level measures reflecting the sexual behaviour and socio-economic make-up of each community. We also found a strong association between community PDV and HIV incidence supporting the use of PDV as a tool for monitoring progress in controlling the epidemic. Lastly, we found significant individual-level factors of HIV risk that are generally consistent with previous HIV epidemiological research. These results have the potential to identify high high-incidence communities, inform structural-level interventions, and optimize individual-level interventions for HIV prevention. ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01900977, HPTN 071 [PopArt].

Trends in HIV testing, the treatment cascade, and HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by HIV. In Africa, MSM face structural barriers to HIV prevention and treatment that increase their vulnerability to HIV acquisition and transmission, and undermine the HIV response. In this systematic review, we aimed to explore progress towards increases in HIV testing, improving engagement in the HIV treatment cascade, and HIV incidence reductions among MSM in Africa. We searched Embase, MEDLINE, Global Health, Scopus, and Web of Science for cross-sectional and longitudinal studies reporting HIV testing, knowledge of status, care, antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, viral suppression, and HIV incidence among MSM in Africa published between Jan 1, 1980, and March 3, 2023. We pooled surveys using Bayesian generalised linear mixed-effects models, used meta-regression to assess time trends, and compared HIV incidence estimates among MSM with those of all men. Of 9278 articles identified, we included 152 unique studies published in 2005-23. In 2020, we estimate that 73% (95% credible interval [CrI] 62-87) of MSM had ever tested for HIV. HIV testing in the past 12 months increased over time in central, western, eastern, and southern Africa (odds ratio per year [ORyear] 1·23, 95% CrI 1·01-1·51, n=46) and in 2020 an estimated 82% (70-91) had tested in the past 12 months, but only 51% (30-72) of MSM living with HIV knew their HIV status. Current ART use increased over time in central and western (ORyear 1·41, 1·08-1·93, n=9) and eastern and southern Africa (ORyear 1·37, 1·04-1·84, n=17). We estimated that, in 2020, 73% (47-88) of all MSM living with HIV in Africa were currently on ART. Nevertheless, we did not find strong evidence to suggest that viral suppression increased, with only 69% (38-89) of MSM living with HIV estimated to be virally suppressed in 2020. We found insufficient evidence of a decrease in HIV incidence over time (incidence ratio per year 0·96, 95% CrI 0·63-1·50, n=39), and HIV incidence remained high in 2020 (6·9 per 100 person-years, 95% CrI 3·1-27·6) and substantially higher (27-199 times higher) than among all men. HIV incidence remains high, and might not be decreasing among MSM in Africa over time, despite some increases in HIV testing and ART use. Achieving the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets for diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression equitably for all requires renewed focus on this key population. Combination interventions for MSM are urgently required to reduce disparities in HIV incidence and tackle the social, structural, and behavioural factors that make MSM vulnerable to HIV acquisition. US National Institutes of Health, UK Medical Research Council, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, and Fonds de Recherche du Québec-Santé. For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

HIV treatment-as-prevention and its effect on incidence of HIV among cisgender gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in Australia: a 10-year longitudinal cohort study

Although HIV treatment-as-prevention reduces individual-level HIV transmission, population-level effects are unclear. We aimed to investigate whether treatment-as-prevention could achieve population-level reductions in HIV incidence among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM) in Australia's most populous states, New South Wales and Victoria. TAIPAN was a longitudinal cohort study using routine health record data extracted from 69 health services that provide HIV diagnosis and care to GBM in New South Wales and Victoria, Australia. Data from Jan 1, 2010, to Dec 31, 2019, were linked within and between services and over time. TAIPAN collected data from all cisgender GBM who attended participating services, resided in New South Wales or Victoria, and were 16 years or older. Two cohorts were established: one included HIV-positive patients, and the other included HIV-negative patients. Population prevalence of viral suppression (plasma HIV viral load <200 RNA copies per μL) was calculated by combining direct measures of viral load among the HIV-positive cohort with estimates for undiagnosed GBM. The primary outcome of HIV incidence was measured directly via repeat testing in the HIV-negative cohort. Poisson regression analyses with generalised estimating equations assessed temporal associations between population prevalence of viral suppression and HIV incidence among the subsample of HIV-negative GBM with multiple instances of HIV testing. At baseline, the final sample (n=101 772) included 90 304 HIV-negative and 11 468 HIV-positive GBM. 59 234 patients in the HIV-negative cohort had two or more instances of HIV testing and were included in the primary analysis. Over the study period, population prevalence of viral suppression increased from 69·27% (95% CI 66·41-71·96) to 88·31% (86·37-90·35), while HIV incidence decreased from 0·64 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·55-0·76) to 0·22 per 100 person-years (0·17-0·28). Adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use, treatment-as-prevention achieved significant population-level reductions in HIV incidence among GBM: a 1% increase in population prevalence of viral suppression corresponded with a 6% decrease in HIV incidence (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0·94, 95% CI 0·93-0·96; p<0·0001). PrEP was introduced in 2016 with 17·60% uptake among GBM that year, which increased to 36·38% in 2019. The relationship between population prevalence of viral suppression and HIV incidence was observed before the availability of PrEP (IRR 0·98, 95% CI 0·96-0·99; p<0·0001) and was even stronger after the introduction of PrEP (0·80, 0·70-0·93; p=0·0030). Our results suggest that further investment in HIV treatment, especially alongside PrEP, can improve public health by reducing HIV incidence among GBM. National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.

Long-acting injectable cabotegravir: implementation science needed to advance this additional HIV prevention choice.

Long-acting injectable cabotegravir: implementation science needed to advance this additional HIV prevention choice.

Reaching the full preventive potential of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis

Despite decreases in HIV incidence, too many people still acquire HIV. In Europe, 104 765 new HIV infections were diagnosed in 2020.1 Oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a crucial strategy to reach the UNAIDS goals for the global AIDS response.2 A majority of countries in North America and western and central Europe have been gradually rolling out PrEP since 2012.3 PrEP has an efficacy of up to 99% for preventing HIV infection if taken correctly and effectiveness was high in demonstration studies, but population-level effectiveness has been estimated in only few studies that were small-scale.

Tracking elimination of HIV transmission in men who have sex with men in England: a modelling study

SummaryBackgroundTo manage the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in England, treatment as prevention strategies based on test and treat were strengthened between 2011 and 2015, and supplemented from 2015 by scale-up of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We examined the effect of these interventions on HIV incidence and investigated whether internationally agreed targets for HIV control and elimination of HIV transmission by 2030 might be within reach among MSM in England.MethodsWe used a novel, age-stratified, CD4-staged Bayesian back-calculation model to estimate HIV incidence and undiagnosed infections among adult MSM (age ≥15 years) during the 10-year period between 2009 and 2018. The model used data on HIV and AIDS diagnoses routinely collected via the national HIV and AIDS Reporting System in England, and knowledge on the progression of HIV through CD4-defined disease stages. Estimated incidence trends were extrapolated, assuming a constant MSM population from 2018 onwards, to quantify the likelihood of achieving elimination of HIV transmission, defined as less than one newly aquired infection per 10 000 MSM per year, by 2030.FindingsThe peak in HIV incidence in MSM in England was estimated with 80% certainty to have occurred in 2012 or 2013, at least 1 year before the observed peak in new diagnoses in 2014. Results indicated a steep decrease in the annual number of new infections among MSM, from 2770 (95% credible interval 2490–3040) in 2013 to 1740 (1500–2010) in 2015, followed by a steadier decrease from 2016, down to 854 (441–1540) infections in 2018. A decline in new infections was consistently estimated in all age groups, and was particularly marked in MSM aged 25–34 years, and slowest in those aged 45 years or older. Similar trends were estimated in the number of undiagnosed infections, with the greatest decrease after 2013 in the 25–34 years age group. Under extrapolation assumptions, we calculated a 40% probability of achieving the defined target elimination threshold by 2030.InterpretationThe sharp decrease in HIV incidence, estimated to have begun before the scale up of PrEP, indicates the success of strengthening treatment as prevention measures among MSM in England. To achieve the 2030 elimination threshold, targeted policies might be required to reach those aged 45 years or older, in whom incidence is decreasing at the slowest rate.FundingUK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute of Health Research Health Protection Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation, and Public Health England.

1701. Added Benefits of Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Use on HIV Incidence with Minimal Changes in Efficiency in the Context of High Treatment Engagement among Men Who Have Sex with Men

BackgroundAlthough there is ongoing debate over the need for substantial increases in PrEP use when antiretroviral treatment confers the dual benefits of reducing HIV-related morbidity and mortality and the risk of HIV transmission, no studies to date have quantified the potential added benefits of PrEP use in settings with high treatment engagement across variable sub-epidemics in the United States.MethodsWe used a previously published agent-based network model to simulate HIV transmission in a dynamic network of 17,440 Black/African American and White MSM in Atlanta, Georgia from 2015 to 2024 to understand how the magnitude of reductions in HIV incidence attributable to varying levels of PrEP use (0–90%) changes in potential futures where high levels of treatment engagement (i.e. the UNAIDS ‘90-90-90’ goals and eventual ‘95-95-95’ goals) are achieved and maintained, as compared to current levels of treatment engagement in Atlanta (Figure 1).Model inputs related to HIV treatment engagement among Black/African American and White men who have sex with men in Atlanta. A comparison of current levels of treatment engagement (Panel A) to treatment engagement at ‘90-90-90’ (Panel B) and ‘95-95-95’ goals (Panel C).ResultsEven at achievement and maintenance of ‘90-90-90’ goals, 75% PrEP coverage reduced incidence rates by an additional 67.9% and 74.2% to 1.53 (SI: 1.39, 1.70) and 0.355 (SI: 0.316, 0.391) per 100 person-years for Black/African American and White MSM, respectively (Figure 2), compared to the same scenario with no PrEP use. Additionally, an increase from 15% PrEP coverage to 75% under ‘90-90-90’ goals only increased person-years of PrEP use per HIV infection averted, a measure of efficiency of PrEP, by 8.1% and 10.5% to 26.7 (SI: 25.6, 28.0) and 73.3 (SI: 70.6, 75.7) among Black/African American MSM and White MSM, respectively (Figure 3). Overall (Panel A) and race-stratified (Panel B and Panel C) marginal changes in HIV incidence over ten years among Black/African American and White men who have sex with men in Atlanta across scenarios of varied levels of treatment engagement among agents living with HIV infection and levels of pre-exposure prophylaxis use among HIV-uninfected agents. Note: All changes are calculated within each set of treatment scenarios relative to a scenario where no agents use pre-exposure prophylaxis. Person-years of pre-exposure prophylaxis use per HIV infection averted among Black/African American (Panel A) and White (Panel B) men who have sex with men in Atlanta across scenarios of varied levels of treatment engagement among agents living with HIV infection and levels of pre-exposure prophylaxis use among HIV-uninfected agents. Note: The number of HIV infections averted is calculated within each set of treatment scenarios relative to a scenario where no agents use pre-exposure prophylaxis. ConclusionEven in the context of high treatment engagement, substantial expansion of PrEP use still contributes to meaningful decreases in HIV incidence among MSM with minimal changes in person-years of PrEP use per HIV infection averted, particularly for Black/African American MSM.Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

Added Benefits of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Use on HIV Incidence with Minimal Changes in Efficiency in the Context of High Treatment Engagement Among Men Who Have Sex with Men.

Although there is ongoing debate over the need for substantial increases in pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use when antiretroviral treatment confers the dual benefits of reducing HIV-related morbidity and mortality and the risk of HIV transmission, no studies to date have quantified the potential added benefits of PrEP use and changes in its efficiency in the context of high treatment engagement across multiple US subpopulations. We used a previously published agent-based model to simulate HIV transmission in a dynamic network of Black/African American and White men who have sex with men (MSM) in Atlanta, Georgia (2015-2024) to understand how reductions in HIV incidence attributable to varying levels of PrEP use change when United Nations Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) "90-90-90" goals for HIV treatment are achieved and maintained. Even at achievement of "90-90-90" goals, 75% PrEP coverage further reduced incidence by 67.9% and 74.2% to 1.53 [simulation interval (SI): 1.39-1.70] and 0.355 (SI: 0.316-0.391) per 100 person-years for Black/African American and White MSM, respectively, compared with the same scenario with no PrEP use. Increasing PrEP coverage from 15% to 75% under "90-90-90" goals only increased the number of person-years of PrEP use per infection averted by 8.1% and 10.5% to 26.7 (SI: 25.6-28.0) and 73.3 (SI: 70.6-75.7) among Black/African American MSM and White MSM, respectively. Even with high treatment engagement, substantial expansion of PrEP use contributes to meaningful decreases in HIV incidence among MSM with minimal changes in efficiency.

Diverging trends in incidence of HIV versus other sexually transmitted infections in HIV-negative MSM in Amsterdam.

We investigated changes in incidence rates of HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and trends in sexual behavior in MSM from 2009 to 2017. Open prospective cohort study. HIV-negative MSM enrolled in the Amsterdam Cohort Studies were included. Participants semiannually completed a questionnaire on sexual behavior and were tested for HIV-1, syphilis, and urethral, anal and pharyngeal chlamydia and gonorrhea. Time trends in incidence rates were analyzed using exponential survival models. During follow-up, 42 of 905 MSM acquired HIV. The HIV incidence rate was 1.9/100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-3.7] in 2009 and decreased to 0.5/100 person-years (95% CI 0.2-1.4) in 2017 (P = 0.03). The largest decrease was observed in participants aged at least 35 years (P = 0.005), while the trend remained stable in 18-34 year olds (P = 0.4). The incidence rate for any bacterial STI was 16.8/100 person-years (95% CI 13.4-21.0) in 2010, and increased to 33.1/100 person-years (95% CI 29.0-37.9) in 2017 (P < 0.001). Between 2009 and 2017, the percentage reporting condomless anal sex with casual partners increased from 26.9 to 39.4% (P < 0.001), and the mean number of casual partners from eight (95% CI 8-8) to 11 (95% CI 10-11) (P = 0.05). Condomless anal sex with steady partner(s) remained stable over time (P = 0.5). Among MSM in Amsterdam, incidence rates of HIV versus other STI show diverging trends. The increase in STI incidence coincides with a decrease in condom use with casual partners. The decrease in HIV incidence, despite increased sexual risk behavior, suggests that other HIV prevention methods have been successful in reducing HIV transmission among MSM.

Risk compensation and STI incidence in PrEP programmes

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention is recommended by WHO as part of a comprehensive HIV prevention package for people at substantial risk of HIV infection.1 PrEP is effective at preventing HIV acquisition, as is shown by high efficacy in placebo-controlled trials and demonstration projects, and increased PrEP coverage is associated with substantial decreases in HIV incidence across the population of men who have sex with men in high-income settings.2–4

Increasing HIV treatment access, uptake and use among men who have sex with men in urban Indonesia: evidence from a qualitative study in three cities.

Men who have sex with men make up one of four key populations identified as critical to a successful HIV response in Indonesia. Despite international policies supporting HIV treatment in low- and middle-income countries, Indonesia is one of the few countries experiencing low coverage of HIV treatment and little decrease in HIV incidence. There is poor retention in care and low viral suppression rates among key populations such as men who have sex with men. The national government has committed to increasing treatment access and uptake for people with HIV but little is known about how these men themselves view, use and experience these medications. Drawing on qualitative data collected in 2015-16 from 24 HIV-positive men who have sex with men living in three Indonesian cities, we observed multiple intersecting social and contextual factors that can influence effective HIV treatment use. Although shared stories of strong side effects and fear of unwanted disclosure inhibited treatment uptake, social support from 'buddies' helped to navigate healthcare systems and sharing medication among peers enabled adherence. In order to improve treatment uptake and adherence among Indonesian men who have sex with men living with HIV, these divergent effects of the social meanings and practices associated with HIV treatments in Indonesia must be better acknowledged. A more comprehensive understanding of social and community practices within key populations can strengthen national efforts to improve treatment access and increase adherence. Ongoing decentralization of healthcare in Indonesia, and differentiated care models that enable initiation of treatment in community settings and involve non-medical, community-based organizations in the provision of treatment services have the potential to address the needs of individuals who fall into a key population category such as men who have sex with men.

ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PREVENTION PROGRAMS FOR COUNTERMEASURE OF SPREAD OF SOCIALLY IMPORTANT INFECTIONS

Purpose of the study. To evaluate the effectiveness of the prevention programs aimed at the prevention of the spread of socially important infections on example of HIV infection, as well to express it in units permitting the comparison with other fields of health care and to compare with to expenses for the prevention and treatment of sequelae of infection. Materials and methods. Results of the panel study, executed in 2006-2013 in 10 regions of the Russian Federation in HIV infection risk groups (4 waves). The total number of participants is 9891. Study protocol included detailed survey of risk behavior, involvement in prevention programs and HIV testing. Obtained data were used for the assessment of the change of the morbidity rate as a result of prevention and calibration of the dynamic (Markov) model of the effect of the prevention on the length of quality-adjusted life and treatment cost. Expenses for the prevention were estimated from field reports of prevention projects. Results. Programs for the comprehensive prevention of socially important infections, first of all HIV-infections, among injecting drug users result in the significant decrease in HIV incidence. The assessment of the effect of the prevention within framework of the multivariable model shows odds ratio to be of 0.56 (95% CI=0.40-0.78). This relative reduction corresponds to the decline of the absolute incidence from 3.98 per 100 person per year in the group of persons who was not involved in prevention programs (95% CI=3.37-4.69) to 2.22 per 100 person per year (95% CI=1.89-2.62) among participants. Such effect of the prevention leads to the increase in quality-adjusted life-years per each person (QALY=0.23, 95% CI=0.10-0.37), and the saving of budget cost by 226 thousand rubles (95% CI=209,6 - 822,2 thousand rubles). With the use of more pessimistic assumptions in relation to expenses for the prevention and treatment, the cost per quality-adjusted life per year failed to surpass the threshold of society’s willingness to pay for health technology, with demonstrating high cost-effectiveness of investing in the prevention. Conclusion. Programs of the comprehensive prevention of socially important infections in the Russian Federation have significant effectiveness and under most plausible assumptions are cost-saving. For the solution the problem of financing preventive measures it is necessary to apply the same principles of health technology assessment as it is done is the area of drug coverage.

Knowledge and use of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in Berlin - A multicentre, cross-sectional survey.

BackgroundHIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has likely contributed to large decreases in HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in several major cities. Berlin has seen a smaller decline, and affordable PrEP has been accessible through formal channels in Germany only since autumn 2017. We aimed to investigate knowledge and use of PrEP among MSM in Berlin, and factors predictive of a desire to use PrEP and history of PrEP use.MethodsMulticentre, paper-based, self-administered survey of adult MSM whose HIV status was negative or unknown at time of participation. Data were collected from 1 October 2017 to 2 April 2018.Results473 of 875 questionnaires were returned (response rate 54.1%; mean age 37.4 years, range 18–79). 90.0% of participants were aware of PrEP and, of these, 48.2% felt well informed about it. Among the 17.2% of participants reporting PrEP use, 59.3% indicated obtaining some or all of it from informal sources. 23.7% of those with no history of PrEP use reported having condomless anal intercourse (CAI) with two or more partners over the past six months. Worries about side effects, cost, not having a doctor who prescribes it, and a lack of information were the most frequently reported barriers to PrEP use. A desire to use PrEP and history of PrEP use were associated in our multivariable model with having multiple CAI partners. A history of PrEP use was associated with having a university degree, one or two parents born outside Germany, or friends living with HIV.ConclusionsWe found high awareness of PrEP among MSM in Berlin, but also a strong need for more education on its pros, cons and proper use. The frequency of informal PrEP use was also high, raising urgent individual and public health concerns. Policy makers need to consider recent calls to improve access to PrEP and PrEP education through regular health services.

Estimating the contribution of key populations towards the spread of HIV in Dakar, Senegal.

IntroductionKey populations including female sex workers (FSW) and men who have sex with men (MSM) bear a disproportionate burden of HIV. However, the role of focusing prevention efforts on these groups for reducing a country's HIV epidemic is debated. We estimate the extent to which HIV transmission among FSW and MSM contributes to overall HIV transmission in Dakar, Senegal, using a dynamic assessment of the population attributable fraction (PAF).MethodsA dynamic transmission model of HIV among FSW, their clients, MSM and the lower‐risk adult population was parameterized and calibrated within a Bayesian framework using setting‐specific demographic, behavioural, HIV epidemiological and antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage data for 1985 to 2015. We used the model to estimate the 10‐year PAF of commercial sex between FSW and their clients, and sex between men, to overall HIV transmission (defined as the percentage of new infections prevented when these modes of transmission are removed). In addition, we estimated the prevention benefits associated with historical increases in condom use and ART uptake, and impact of further increases in prevention and treatment.ResultsThe model projections suggest that unprotected sex between men contributed to 42% (2.5 to 97.5th percentile range 24 to 59%) of transmissions between 1995 and 2005, increasing to 64% (37 to 79%) from 2015 to 2025. The 10‐year PAF of commercial sex is smaller, diminishing from 21% (7 to 39%) in 1995 to 14% (5 to 35%) in 2015. Without ART, 49% (32 to 71%) more HIV infections would have occurred since 2000, when ART was initiated, whereas without condom use since 1985, 67% (27 to 179%) more HIV infections would have occurred, and the overall HIV prevalence would have been 60% (29 to 211%) greater than what it is now. Further large decreases in HIV incidence (68%) can be achieved by scaling up ART in MSM to 74% coverage and reducing their susceptibility to HIV by two‐thirds through any prevention modality.ConclusionsUnprotected sex between men may be an important contributor to HIV transmission in Dakar, due to suboptimal coverage of evidence‐informed interventions. Although existing interventions have effectively reduced HIV transmission among adults, it is crucial that further strategies address the unmet need among MSM.

U.S. HIV Incidence and Transmission Goals, 2020 and 2025

The recently updated U.S. National HIV/AIDS Strategy sets key HIV prevention and care targets for 2020, but the trajectory of the epidemic remains unclear. Authors modeled HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality for the U.S. over 10 years to determine whether an ambitious trajectory toward "ending AIDS" by 2025 would be achievable. Authors utilized recently published 2010-2013 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance data to model HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality. Authors applied a 90/90/90 framework (90% awareness of serostatus, 90% of diagnosed individuals in care, and 90% of individuals on antiretroviral therapy virally suppressed) by 2020 and 95/95/95 by 2025 to assess the feasibility of meeting epidemiologic targets. Analyses were conducted in 2016. With a goal of reducing infections to 21,000 new HIV infections in 2020, authors project a transmission rate of 1.74, 12,571 deaths, and a total of 1,205,515 people living with HIV. By 2025, with a target of 12,000 new HIV infections (a 69% decrease in HIV incidence), authors project a transmission rate of 0.98, 12,522 deaths, and a total of 1,220,615 people living with HIV. With a 90/90/90 framework by 2020 and a 95/95/95 framework by 2025, these epidemiologic targets would be feasible. Key programmatic milestones provide an ambitious, but important, pathway to reduce U.S. HIV incidence below 12,000 new infections by 2025. HIV incidence would decrease below mortality in 2025, marking a transition toward ending the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Such goals will require a sustained and intensified national commitment over the next decade.

Antiretroviral Drug Use in a Cross-Sectional Population Survey in Africa: NIMH Project Accept (HPTN 043).

Antiretroviral (ARV) drug treatment benefits the treated individual and can prevent HIV transmission. We assessed ARV drug use in a community-randomized trial that evaluated the impact of behavioral interventions on HIV incidence. Samples were collected in a cross-sectional survey after a 3-year intervention period. ARV drug testing was performed using samples from HIV-infected adults at 4 study sites (Zimbabwe; Tanzania; KwaZulu-Natal and Soweto, South Africa; survey period 2009-2011) using an assay that detects 20 ARV drugs (6 nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors, 3 nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, and 9 protease inhibitors; maraviroc; raltegravir). ARV drugs were detected in 2011 (27.4%) of 7347 samples; 88.1% had 1 nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors ± 1-2 nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors. ARV drug detection was associated with sex (women>men), pregnancy, older age (>24 years), and study site (P < 0.0001 for all 4 variables). ARV drugs were also more frequently detected in adults who were widowed (P = 0.006) or unemployed (P = 0.02). ARV drug use was more frequent in intervention versus control communities early in the survey (P = 0.01), with a significant increase in control (P = 0.004) but not in intervention communities during the survey period. In KwaZulu-Natal, a 1% increase in ARV drug use was associated with a 0.14% absolute decrease in HIV incidence (P = 0.018). This study used an objective, biomedical approach to assess ARV drug use on a population level. This analysis identified factors associated with ARV drug use and provided information on ARV drug use over time. ARV drug use was associated with lower HIV incidence at 1 study site.

HIV treatment as prevention among people who inject drugs - a re-evaluation of the evidence.

Population-level associations between community measures of HIV viral load and HIV incidence have been interpreted as evidence for HIV anti-retroviral treatment (ART) as prevention among people who inject drugs (PWID). However, investigation of concurrent HCV and HIV incidence trends allows examination of alternative explanations for the fall in HIV incidence. We estimate the contribution of ART and reductions in injecting risk for reducing HIV incidence in Vancouver between 1996 and 2007. A deterministic model of HIV and HCV transmission among PWID was calibrated to the baseline (1996) HIV and HCV epidemic among PWID in Vancouver. While incorporating parameter uncertainty, the model projected what levels of ART protection and decreases in injecting risk could reproduce the observed reduction in HIV and HCV incidence for 1996-2007, and so what impact would have been achieved with just ART or just reductions in injecting risk. Model predictions suggest the estimated reduction (84%) in HCV incidence for 1996-2007 required a 59% (2.5-97.5 percentile range 49-76%) reduction in injecting risk, which accounted for nine-tenths of the observed decrease in HIV incidence; the remainder was achieved with a moderate ART efficacy for reducing sexual HIV infectivity (70%, 51-89%) and an uncertain ART efficacy for reducing injection-related HIV infectivity (44%, 0-96%). Despite this uncertainty, projections suggest that the decrease in injecting risk reduced HIV incidence by 76% (63-85%) and ART further reduced HIV incidence by 8% (2-19%), or on its own by 3% (-34-37%). Observed declines in HIV incidence in Vancouver between 1996 and 2007 should be seen as a success for intensive harm reduction, whereas ART probably played a small role.

O018 Community Viral Load: A new population-based biomarker of HIV disease burden in Scotland

Background/introduction “Community viral load” (CVL) refers to an aggregate biological measure of viral load (VL) for a particular geographic location. Studies have suggested that CVL may be used as a population-based biomarker for HIV transmission, and that its reduction is associated with a decrease in HIV incidence. Currently, there is no published data on CVL in Scotland. Aim(s)/objectives This study aims to measure CVL and to estimate the HIV transmission potential of communities in Scotland. Methods HIV/AIDS surveillance data on patient demographics, first VL in 2014, and region of residence were analysed. Mean CVL was measured as the arithmetic average and total CVL the arithmetic sum of all VL in our data set respectively. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS 23 at 95% significance level. Shapiro-Wilk test was performed for normality. Chi-square analysis and Kruskal-Wallis test were performed for differences in variables. Spearman’s correlation was performed for correlations between CVL and HIV incidence. Results 4126 non-duplicate cases were analysed. Mean CVL was highest in Central South-West (CSW) (μ = 20,469, 95% CI = 8146–32,933), followed by Central South-East (CSE) and North respectively. There was a significant difference in mean rank CVL between North-CSW and North-CSE. There was a positive correlation between mean CVL and HIV quarterly incidence for CSW (Spearman’s rho = 0.062, p = 0.01) and CSE (Spearman’s rho = 0.032, p = 0.196), whereas a negative correlation was seen in North (Spearman’s rho = −0.047, p = 0.202). Discussion/conclusion This study highlights the relationship between CVL and HIV quarterly incidence in Scotland in 2014. Further work using annual incidence data is needed to verify these conclusions and to determine factors influencing these results.