Cyclical Factors Research Articles

Экономика РФ в январе – апреле 2024 года

Based on the analysis of a number of macroeconomic and sectoral indicators, it is established that in January–April 2024, there was an economic decline compared to the corresponding period in 2023. Moreover, the extent of the decline is increasing month by month. It is noteworthy that the authorities, as in the past in the USSR, are turning a blind eye to the decline. The causes of the decline are determined by the combined impact of both cyclical factors (Western economic sanctions, overstrain from military expenditures) and long-term trends of a decline in fixed assets and a reduction in the workforce, as well as the qualifications of personnel at all levels. The future prospects of the Russian economy are determined, along with ensuring effective economic policy and building a functional state system, by the level of escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and the extent of economic sanctions. In the event of significant escalation of military actions, what will be required is a transition to a wartime economy with a high share of military expenditures in GDP, a reduction in consumer spending and non-productive investments, mobilization of labor resources in favor of the armed forces and the military-industrial complex, and the introduction of a rationing system for main food products, as well as the nationalization of several companies. The success of this structural maneuver is determined by the organization and qualifications of the state apparatus. In the case of moderate escalation of military actions and economic sanctions, the radical nature of structural and institutional changes will decrease.

Is money velocity pro-cyclical? The case of India

Monetary targeting served as a useful tool for conducting monetary policy until 1980s, but the instability in the relationship between money and nominal income led to its abandonment by most economies. One way of measuring this relationship is money velocity, defined as the ratio of nominal income to money. The purpose of the present study is to show that if short-run cyclical factors are accounted for, money velocity function becomes stable and thus any change in monetary aggregates will lead to predictable change in nominal income and therefore inflation. In such a scenario, monetary targeting can serve as a useful tool in the conduct of monetary policy. The study utilizes quarterly data from 1996:Q2 to 2020:Q1 and time series methodology to conduct empirical analysis. Findings show that money velocity and all its identified determinants exhibit pro-cyclical behaviour. After accounting for these determinants, money velocity has been found to be stable. The direction of causality runs from money velocity to rate of interest to investment to GDP. Thus, when formulating monetary and fiscal policies, policymakers can monitor the short-term cyclical patterns in money velocity as an indicator of forthcoming expansionary or contractionary conditions in the economy to design effective policies.

Application of Time Series Prediction Models in Chinese Electricity Consumption Analysis

Study focuses on the application of time series prediction models in analyzing electricity consumption in China, aiming to promote the intelligentization and sustainable development of the country's power system. The ARIMA model was chosen for this research, incorporating historical electricity data to forecast future consumption. Through a series of steps including data preprocessing, model construction, and prediction analysis, the results indicate a general growth trend in electricity consumption, influenced by seasonal and cyclical factors. By plotting periodic decomposition charts, the study visually reveals the components and patterns of electricity data, providing scientific decision-making support for the planning, scheduling, and management of the electricity industry.

Fiscal financing with labour markets frictions

AbstractIn this paper, we study the effect of search and matching frictions, i.e., equilibrium unemployment, on fiscal financing decisions in the United States. We build a Real Business Cycle model with labour market frictions and a rich set of fiscal tools and estimate the model using Bayesian methods on US data for various fiscal rule specifications. Most importantly, we find that the model with unemployment, output and debt in the fiscal rules fits the data best. Under the fiscal rule that best fits the data, the reaction of fiscal instruments to output and debt are significantly quantitatively different than a rule that ignores unemployment. Fiscal instruments react stronger to cyclical factors except transfers. These changes also affect model dynamics in response to fundamental non‐fiscal shocks.

Bilateral Remittance Inflows to Asia and the Pacific: Countercyclicality and Motivations to Remit

This paper examines the cyclicality of remittance inflows to economies in Asia and the Pacific, aiming to identify major factors associated with remittances using gravity models of bilateral remittances. An analysis that assesses correlation coefficients between the cyclical factors of remittances and gross domestic product suggests that remittances tend to be countercyclical, or acyclical, against the business cycle of the remittance-receiving economy relative to the sending economy. This observation is confirmed by the gravity models of bilateral remittances. Furthermore, the estimation results suggest that migrant stock is one of the most significant factors affecting bilateral remittances. The study also shows that an increase in bilateral remittances can be attributed to a higher occurrence of disasters triggered by natural hazards in receiving economies, an appreciation of the receiving economy’s currency value against the sending economy’s, a lower interest rate differential (receiver–sender), greater capital account openness, more political instability, and lower costs of remittances.

Hours worked and the US distribution of real annual earnings 1976–2019

SummaryWe examine the impact of annual hours worked on annual earnings by decomposing changes in the real annual earnings distribution into composition, structural, and hours effects. We do so via a nonseparable simultaneous model of hours, wages, and earnings. Using the Current Population Survey for the survey years 1976–2019, we find that changes in the female distribution of annual hours of work are important in explaining movements in inequality in female annual earnings. This captures the substantial changes in their employment behavior over this period. Movements in the male hours' distribution only affect the lower part of their earnings distribution and reflect the sensitivity of these workers' annual hours of work to cyclical factors.

Markups, profit shares, and cost-push-profit-led inflation

Abstract The post-pandemic surge in inflation was accompanied by a surge in the corporate share of profits. As a result, several economists and policy makers have given to it names such as “profit-led inflation” or “sellers’ inflation.” The present paper discusses the extent to which profit-led inflation, as an explanation for the recent surge in inflation, is compatible with what we know about the price-setting behavior of firms, income distribution, and inflation. We do that in juxtaposition to two recent critiques: that the increase in the profit share is the result of cyclical factors and that the increase in import prices leads to higher profit shares even under constant markups. We show that there is little evidence that the recent surge in profitability is cyclical in nature. Moreover, after outlining the Structuralist/Kaleckian theories of prices and inflation, we argue that profit-led inflation does not require an increase in the markup of the firms and is consistent with these theories. In the face of large import and other price shocks even under constant markups, firms are able to pass the burden of adjustment to real wages. Thus, the term profit-led emphasizes the distributional source and consequences of inflation. We also provide an empirical examination of the markups in the post-pandemic period using data from the Compustat database. We show that, on average, firms were able to increase or maintain their markups, although there is significant heterogeneity across sectors or the position of the firms in the distribution of markups.

Inflation Differentials of Euro Countries and Their Determinants

The purpose of this paper is to examine the inflation differentials and their determinants in the first twelve euro countries that formed the eurozone. We focus on only these countries to capture the effects through the last 22 years from 1999 to 2020, without taking into consideration the changes in dynamics that were caused due to the integration of more countries since 2007. The dynamic panel data results, estimated with the system Generalised Method of Moments estimation method, show that it is mostly structural and cyclical factors that drive inflation differentials among these euro countries and that there are no significant indications that other convergence processes have taken place during this time span to explain increase in certain countries’ inflation. We conclude by mentioning the potential role that inflation differentials could play in the European Central Bank’s decision-making process.

FORECASTING THE CONSUMPTION OF FUEL AND ENERGY RESOURCES FOR MILITARY UNITS IN THE ARCTIC ZONE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

The Russian Arctic is one of the promising economic zones with a rich supply of natural resources. In a world in which territorial divisions, ideological rivalries, ethnic intolerance, and even nuclear proliferation can theoretically be normalized without the use of military force, it is the wealth of energy resources that remains the last casus belli that can lead to catastrophic consequences. That is why the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are faced with the task of protecting state sovereignty and maintaining security in the Arctic zone. To maintain the combat capability and readiness of a military facility, it is necessary to maintain stocks of fuel and energy resources at the required level. Forecasting the consumption of fuel and energy resources is the most important task. This methodology takes into account factors of various types: periodic (cyclical) and random, including those inherent in military production. All factors affect energy consumption to varying degrees.
 Cyclical factors are the most predictable and have a greater impact on the consumption of fuel and energy resources. Although random factors occupy a small share in the process of energy consumption, the amplitude of deviations can be quite significant.
 The methodology makes it possible to determine the consumption of fuel and energy resources in the context of the increasing complexity of the relationship between the economy and energy and the growing uncertainty of the future development of military units and military bases in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation based on the applied stochastic differential equation.
 Purpose. Develop a methodology for forecasting the consumption of fuel and energy resources for military units in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation.
 Methodology in article economic-mathematical methods, and also statistical methods.
 Results: the most informative parameters were obtained, showing some aspects of the process of forecasting the consumption of fuel and energy resources.
 Scope of the results: it is advisable to apply the results obtained in the apartment-operational subdivisions of the logistics management bodies of the military districts to obtain predicted values of the consumption of fuel and energy resources (TER)at military infrastructure facilities (military camps).
 Practical implications it is expedient to apply the received results the economic subjects which are carrying out foreign economic activity, one of which elements are export operations.

The Process of Change in the Understanding of Planning in Turkey by Periods

In this study, the changing process of planning understanding in Turkey from the past to the present has been evaluated in terms of periods. The study has evaluated the agriculture-industrial-oriented change of the planned development steps implemented since the Ottoman Empire period and the political and economic factors affecting this change. 
 The State Planning Organization (SPO) and development plans prepared by it, which played an essential role in determining the government policies that have been in power since the 1960s, and industrial plans before the 1960s have been the reference sources that will help the subject.
 According to the research, the understanding of planning in Turkey coincides with the political thought shaped by the influence of internal and external cyclical factors. At this point, it is seen that the theoretical frameworks prepared are policies that are compatible with the economic and political perspective of the period and that the deteriorated financial balance and stability depend on the success or failure in implementation regardless of the plans.

A hybrid Autoformer framework for electricity demand forecasting

Electricity demand forecasting is of great significance to the electricity system and residents’ life, but it is difficult to forecast the electricity demand series because of the influence of cyclical factors. Electricity demand forecasting also faces the problem of small data amounts. Therefore, we need to design a model that is less affected by data volume and can cope with complex electricity demand series. Based on the Autoformer model, this paper establishes a novel forecasting framework with excellent performance. In the part of data preprocessing, multiple linear regression with 10 variables and Bootstrap processing are added. In the part of the model, the Auto-Correlation mechanism is modified to better extract the historical and nonlinear characteristics of electricity demand series from different time spans. Using this framework, we further analyze the impact of working days and seasonal changes on the electricity demand in Taixing City and New South Wales. In addition, we propose a new electricity demand forecasting method, which can adjust the original sequence according to the actual situation. The experimental results show that this method can achieve good precision in demand forecasting. Taking Taixing of China and New South Wales of Australia as examples, the forecasting performance with the proposed framework is better than that of Autoformer, Reformer, Informer, and other mainstream models. The forecasting indexes with our proposed framework of the test set are MAE: 35.05, RMSE: 47.28, MAPE: 1.63 in Taixing and MAE: 193.17, RMSE: 239.96, MAPE: 2.43 in NSW.

Für eine ökonomischere Fundierung der Trend-TFP in der Ermittlung des Produktionspotenzials

AbstractIn the production function-based approach proposed by the European Commission for the estimation of the potential output, trend total factor productivity (TFP) is indirectly estimated on the basis of cyclical factors. Instead, this article proposes a more economics-based foundation of trend-TFP that is based on the arguments of the endogenous growth theory. A simple econometric exercise shows how the application of this approach may lead to a significantly different assessment of the potential output and, by extension, of the economy’s output gap. This may have far-reaching consequences for the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy, e. g. in the context of the German debt brake.

Preliminary end-of-service-life study of the soles of protective footwear resistant to selected mechanical factors and mineral oil

This work aimed to study the end of service life of soles of protective footwear resistant to selected mechanical factors and mineral oil. Three sole variants were examined; made from poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) (EVA), poly(vinyl chloride) (PVC) and polyurethane (PU), currently widely used in all-rubber protective footwear. The preliminary study focused on the abrasion resistance and bending strength of the three sole materials after different times of exposure to mineral oil. Changes in density and hardness of the examined materials were evaluated following exposure to cyclical factors. Statistical analysis was performed to identify significant differences between the three types of polymers in terms of abrasion resistance, density and hardness following exposure to mineral oil for three different periods. Surface morphology of the sole materials was examined by means of scanning electron microscopy. The presented studies elucidate the effects of mineral oil on the basic mechanical parameters of all-rubber footwear soles.

Intense droughts affect temporal stability of Amazonian stream fish assemblages

Abstract The frequency and duration of exceptionally intense droughts is increasing as a consequence of ongoing climate change in many regions of the planet. Lower rain fall in some regions and the increasing in the use of water resources by human populations is increasing the number of water bodies experiencing drying processes. Such changes in ecosystem dynamics have direct impacts on biological communities. Here, we investigated the temporal structure of fish assemblage in terra‐firme (i.e., non‐floodable) streams in the Eastern Brazilian Amazon by sampling over three seasonal cycles (2012, 2013, 2014). The research investigated the temporal dynamics of the ichthyofauna of streams that experienced temporary flow interruption in 2012; using the ichthyofauna of perennial streams (not interrupted by the effects of drought) as controls to determine the effects of flow cessation on the temporal structure of fish assemblages and their recovery after drought. The species composition of perennial streams remained stable over 3 years (2012, 2013, 2014), not differing between the dry and rainy periods. On by contrast, the species composition of the streams that temporarily dried changed after the flow interruption event. Responses to the temporary flow interruption were not uniform among species, with some increasing in abundance after the event while others decreased. The species whose abundance increased immediately after flow interruption tended to return to initial conditions in the third year of sampling, which might be related to low resource availability in those streams. Species whose abundance decreased tended to remain in low abundance, possibly as a result of local/regional rarity of these species, hindering population restoration processes. The dissimilarity in fish assemblage composition (based on the relative abundance of species) between sampling events revealed that the changes caused by the temporary flow interruption were significantly greater than the temporal changes recorded in perennial streams. Overall, the results indicated that intense drought events may alter fish species composition in terra‐firme streams and that such changes may persist for some years. Our results also provide evidence that the responses of fish species to flow regime change are not uniform, highlighting the need for a better understanding of the basic biology of fishes to predict the effects of increased climate disturbances more accurately in aquatic communities. Untangling the effects of natural cyclical factors from the effects deriving from unpredictable extreme events is crucial to better predict the impacts of global climate change on the structure of biological communities.

Checking econometric models in times of market and consumer change

The aim of the article is to present the checking of econometric models in times of market and consumer changes. The development of the SFP balance, the budget deficit against real GDP in the years 2010-2019 and the debt forecast for the years 2021-2024 are presented here. It can be noted that different factors in different countries shape the budget balance. In 2009, the Baltic States were in the most difficult situation. The budget deficit and real GDP in Poland mean that a large part of the deficits in the economic situation is subordinated here. This shows that it is not cyclical factors that are behind it, but factors related to fiscal policy. The biggest problem was the problem in which the global financial crisis began and our deficits began to increase rapidly. The source of coverage had to be found. An additional problem was the pension reform related to OFE when we did not see it in the deficit, but we still had to incur a debt for funds transferred to OFE about PLN 20 billion per year. There was an idea to take some of these funds out of the sector. The pandemic has cast a shadow over our finances. The strategy prepared before the pandemic assumed that public debt would increase in nominal terms, but there would also be a significant decrease in relative terms to GDP. The flexibility that took place in 2015 caused that there was an expenditure expansion in Poland, and this consequently led to the appearance of the "gluttony effect". In Poland, there was a high increase in GDP, but Poles spent more, which made Poles "overeat" this increase. In addition, we are glad that we have a high GDP, and in fact it is falsified by inflation.

Twelve-Month Stability of Accelerometer-Measured Occupational and Leisure-Time Physical Activity and Compensation Effects

Introduction: Little is known about the stability of occupational physical activity (PA) and documented compensation effects over time. Study objectives were to (a) determine the stability of accelerometer estimates of occupational and nonoccupational PA over 6 months and 1 year in adults who do not change jobs, (b) examine PA stability in office workers relative to employees with nonoffice jobs who may be more susceptible to seasonal perturbations in work tasks, and (c) examine the stability data for compensation effects seen at baseline in this sample. Methods: City/county government workers from a variety of labor sectors wore an accelerometer at initial data collection, and at 6 (n = 98) and 12 months (n = 38) following initial data collection. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated for accelerometer counts and minutes by intensity, domain, and office worker status. Partial correlation coefficients were examined for compensation effects. Results: ICCs ranged from .19 to .91 for occupational and nonwork activity variables. ICCs were similar by office worker status. In both counts and minutes, greater occupational PA correlated with lower total nonwork PA. However, as minutes of occupational moderate to vigorous physical activity increased, nonoccupational moderate to vigorous physical activity did not decrease. Conclusions: There was moderate to high stability in occupational and nonoccupational PA over 6- and 12-month data collection. Occupational PA stability was greater in nonoffice workers, suggesting that those employees’ PA may be less prone to potential cyclical factors at the workplace. Confirmation of the compensation effect further supports the need for workplace intervention studies to examine changes in all intensities of activity during and outside of work time.

Millennials: Maligned or miscreants?

AbstractThis paper explores the degree to which labor supply behavior differs among Millennials, relative to earlier generations, especially to that of Baby‐boomers. I find that wage and income elasticities are lower among Millennials, which can partly be attributed to trends beginning before their time. Responses to cyclical factors appear unchanged across generations. The overall lower observed labor supply among Millennials is nuanced with their behavior putting downward pressure on both hours and participation, whereas their characteristics are propping up labor supply. These differences could have important implications for economic growth and policy considerations.

Oilseeds development in Morocco in the current international context

Oilseeds are grown mainly for the extraction of vegetable oils and for its by-products needed in livestock feed and in other industrial uses. The oils obtained from them are becoming a staple food used in daily cooking in several countries, and as a result the world demand is constantly increasing. This situation, combined with the exponential increase in the world population and other cyclical factors, is leading to a surge pricing, especially in importing countries. This increase in prices is fueled by soaring oil prices and disruption in supplies following Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea. Morocco is directly impacted by these fluctuations given that the country imports almost its total needs in vegetable oils, oilseeds and meals. The high dependence on imported vegetable oils and oilseed products has a detrimental effect on the economy of Morocco and weighs heavily on the country’s trade balance. Considering their increasingly important role in society, the development of a local oilseed sector to reduce Morocco’s dependence on imports and cope with the vagaries of global markets has never been more topical in the current context of sustainable agriculture and food sovereignty.

Share price prediction of aerospace relevant companies with recurrent neural networks based on PCA

The capital market plays a vital role in marketing operations for the rapid development of the aerospace industry. However, due to the uncertainty and complexity of the stock market and many cyclical factors, the stock prices of listed aerospace companies fluctuate significantly. This makes the share price prediction challengeable. To improve the prediction of share price for aerospace industry sector and well understand the impact of various indicators on stock prices, we provided a hybrid prediction model by the combination of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN).We investigated two types of aerospace industries (manufacturer and operator). The experimental results show that PCA could improve both accuracy and efficiency of prediction. Various factors could influence the performance of prediction models, such as finance data, extracted features, optimisation algorithms, and parameters of the prediction model. The selection of features may depend on the stability of historical data: technical features could be the first option when the share price is stable, whereas fundamental features could be better when the share price has high fluctuation. The delays of RNN also depend on the stability of historical data for different types of companies. It would be more accurate through using short-term historical data for aerospace manufacturers, whereas using long-term historical data for aerospace operating airlines.The developed model could be an intelligent agent in an automatic stock prediction system, with which, the financial industry could make a prompt decision for their economic strategies and business activities in terms of predicted future share price, thus improving the return on investment. The study is for the prediction of aerospace industries at pre-COVID-19 time. Currently, COVID-19 severely influences aerospace industries. The developed approach can be used to predict the share price of aerospace industries at post COVID-19 time.

Identifying the Main Determinants of Part-Time Employment in EU Countries

Abstract The article analyses the prevalence of part-time employment in different EU countries with a focus on the factors affecting the rate of part-time employment across the EU. Based on the literature review, a distinction is made between three groups of factors that are relevant for the rate of part-time employment, in particular, cyclical factors, political and institutional factors, and structural factors. The article analyses how these factors influence part-time employment rates in EU countries. The linear regression analysis based on EU-28 macroeconomic data for the period of 2007-2018 has shown that all three groups of determinants (i.e. cyclical, political and institutional as well as structural factors) affect the rate of part-time employment in the EU-28. Part-time employment is a complex phenomenon which depends on a number of factors. However, the regression analysis has found that the following political and institutional as well as structural independent variables are also significant predictors of part-time employment rates in EU Member States (EU-28): average annual wages, the tax rate on low wage earners, expenditures on children and family benefits as a percentage of gross domestic product, trade union density, and the activity rate of people aged 15-24 and 55-64. Cyclical factors (the unemployment rate in Model (1) and real GDP per capita in Model (2)) have also been found to have a significant effect on part-time employment in EU-28 countries.