Current Climatic Data Research Articles

Impact of climate change on rainfed sugarcane in Veracruz, Mexico

Objective: To estimate the expected quantitative changes of the rainfed sugarcane yield in four sugar mills in the state of Veracruz using climate change scenarios for the end of the 21st century and considering that the same climate change could also affect soil fertility. Design/methodology/approach: The data on the cultivated area with the rainfed sugarcane such as topography, principal properties of soil fertility, crop yields for the beginning of the 21st century, current climatic data from the meteorological stations and future ones based on existing climate change scenarios were analyzed. Then, by means of a physiological model of this crop based on biological, climatic and soil characteristics, proposed by IIASA/FAO, the current and future agricultural productivity of sugarcane was calculated. The actual productivity calculated with this model was compared with the observed data. Then, the productivity of this crop for the end of the 21st century was calculated. The comparative impact on the productivity of the expected changes in some climatic components and corresponding expected modification in soil fertility was assessed. Results: The results of calculations indicate that if the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere increases by 2 or 2.7 times at the end of the 21st century and the current varieties of sugarcane and their crop management will conserve, the yield of sugarcane will decrease up to 20% depending on the climate change scenario and location of the plot. The main climatic factor influencing the decrease in sugarcane productivity is the expected decrease in precipitation. Limitations on study/implications: Monthly average climatic variables are used for both current and future productivity calculations since there are no estimates of daily data. There are also no predictions on the development of crop management technology as well as on the expected change in pests and diseases for the end of the 21st century. Findings/conclusions: The IISA/FAO physiological model of sugarcane growth based on agroecological principles, considering even limited number of climatic variables, is useful for calculating of sugarcane productivity with correlations greater than 90% for calculated and observed data. This allowed us to estimate the expected impact of climate change in the productivity of rainfed sugarcane in Veracruz State of Mexico at the end of 21st century.

New records and potential distribution of Bufo luchunnicus (Yang & Rao, 2008) in Vietnam

Abstract The Luchun Stream Toad – Bufo luchunnicus (Yang and Rao, 2008) is a Critically Endangered species with a restricted distribution in southern China and northwestern Vietnam. Habitat loss and disturbance is the main threat to this species, but a lack of understanding of its natural history has hindered urgent conservation efforts to safeguard the species and its habitats. As a result of our field surveys, we herein report two new population records of B. luchunnicus in Vietnam and provide novel data on its natural history. In addition, species distribution models (MaxEnt – Maximum Entropy Algorithm) using current climatic data are applied to predict the potential distribution of B. luchunnicus.

Spatial distribution of Glossina morsitans (Diptera: Glossinidae) in Zambia: A vehicle-mounted sticky trap survey and Maxent species distribution model.

Tsetse-transmitted African trypanosomiasis is a debilitating and fatal disease of humans and livestock if left untreated. While knowledge of the spatial distribution patterns of tsetse is essential for the development of risk-based vector control strategies, existing distribution maps in Zambia are more than 40 years old and were based on coarse spatial resolution data. The recently developed vehicle-mounted sticky trap (VST) provides an alternative sampling device to aid in updating existing distribution maps but has not been applied outside an experimental setting and is limited to motorable tracks. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing the VST for area-wide surveys of Glossina morsitans and to use the occurrence records to predict its spatial distribution in Zambia under current environmental conditions using Maxent. Two-sided all-blue VST baited with butanone and 1-octen-3-ol was used to survey 692 and 1020 km of transect routes in G. m. centralis Machado and G. m. morsitans Westwood previously published distribution in Zambia. Maxent species distribution technique was used to predict the potential distribution of the two subspecies using current climatic and environmental data which was then compared to the historical distribution. A total of 15,602 tsetse were captured with G. m. morsitans (58%) being the most abundant. G. m. centralis and G. pallidipes Austin represented 39 and 2% of the catch respectively, and G. brevipalpis Newstead was also detected. The predicted potential distribution for G. m. centralis was 80,863 km2 while that of G. m. morsitans was 70,490 km2 representing a 47 and 29% reduction compared to their historical distributions, respectively. The VST is effective for sampling G. morsitans outside experimental settings and is recommended for use as an additional tsetse survey tool. The spatial distribution of G. morsitans in Zambia has reduced by 101,051 km2 due to temperature and land cover changes.

Crop Production Analysis using Machine Learning

As we all know, in the agricultural industry, farmers and agribusinesses must make countless decisions every day, and the different elements influencing them are complex. The proper yield calculation for the different crops involved in the planning is a critical issue for agricultural planning. Data mining techniques are a critical component of achieving practical and successful solutions to this issue. Agriculture has always been a natural fit for big data. Environmental conditions, soil variability, input amounts, combinations, and commodity pricing have all made it more important for farmers to use data and seek assistance when making vital farming decisions. This research focuses on analyzing agricultural data and determining the best parameters to maximize crop output using machine learning techniques such as Random Forest, Decision Tree and Linear Regression, which can achieve high accuracy. Mining current crop, soil, and climatic data, as well as evaluating new, non-experimental data, improves production and makes agriculture more robust to climate change.

Evolutionary history and eco‐climatic diversification in southern African dung beetle Sisyphus

AbstractAimThe high diversity of species in southern Africa has been attributed to geological and palaeoclimatic factors. The timing of radiations in some groups is held to be linked to these geoclimatic trends. Using the Scarabaeinae dung beetle genus, Sisyphus, as a model system, we investigate how geological uplift and climatic changes in the late Cenozoic affected its diversification patterns in southern Africa.LocationSouthern Africa.TaxonThe dung beetle genus, Sisyphus Latreille, 1807 (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Scarabaeinae).MethodsA dated molecular phylogeny of southern African Sisyphus was compared with a factor analysis of species distribution data that statistically defined groups of species according to current climatic distribution. We used these climatic clusters to estimate ancestral ranges using the “BioGeoBEARS” R package. A lineage through time plot was calculated using the R package ‘APE’. We used Bayesian diversification models (compound Poisson process on mass extinction times) to test hypotheses on how late Cenozoic uplift and climatic changes affected speciation and extinction of Sisyphus. Furthermore, we implemented ecological niche modelling in MaxEnt to predict the habitat suitability of species under present climatic conditions.ResultsFour species groups defined from factor analysis of current climatic distribution data are primarily restricted to the moist summer rainfall region in the northeast. Species diversification occurred from the mid‐Miocene until the Pleistocene, during which the central southern African plateau was uplifted in tandem with the advent of winter rainfall and arid climatic zones to the southwest. The ancestor of Sisyphus was centred in eastern low to mid‐altitude areas. Speciation rates were higher in the Miocene to Pliocene, followed by a dramatic drop during the transition to the Pleistocene.Main conclusionsThe taxonomic and eco‐climatic diversification of sisyphines is coincident with geological uplift and changes in climate in east‐central southern Africa. However, phylogenetic relationships of southern African Sisyphus species are not homogenously distributed with respect to geography and climate.

Climate change projections of rainfall and its impact on the cropland suitability for rice and wheat crops in the Sone river command, Bihar

Land suitability analysis is a necessity to achieve sustainable agricultural productivity with the optimum utilization of the available resources. Lack of proper knowledge on the best combination of factors that suit production of rice and wheat has contributed to low production in the Sone river command, Bihar. The aim of this study is to develop land suitability maps for rice and wheat crop based on physical, chemical and climatic factors of production using a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) and Geographic Information System (GIS) approach. Biophysical variables of soil, climate and topography have been considered for suitability analysis. This work also evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on cropland suitability for rice and wheat crops. Climatic variable scenarios of rainfall were obtained from four GCMs (CAN-ESM2, MPI-ESM-MR, CSIRO, CMCC-CMS) for three future time slices (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) of representative concentration pathways (RCP) RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The observation data (1985–2011) from IMD Pune from 8 meteorological stations were used as the current baseline climatic data of rainfall, which is used to validate the cropland suitability model. The results of CC indicate that there is a significant variability in the distribution of rainfall in the projected period 2011–2100 with respect to the baseline period. The results also show a concomitant increase in the projected crop suitability area of wheat from 17 to 35% and decrease in area for rice from 31 to 21% when compared with baseline for highly suitable area.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR SUGAR CANE PRODUCTION IN EGYPT

Global climate change should pose serious impacts on water resources and agriculture in the future. The aim of this research was to calculate water requirements for sugarcane grown in 7 governorates in Egypt under current climate and under ongoing climate change scenario up to 2100. The results indicated that water requirements for sugarcane will increase by 12 %–18% compared to the current water use depending on governorate location., where the applied irrigation amount is expected to increase in all governorates under climate change water requirements due to long growing season (365 days) of sugar cane, its water requirements under climate change conditions increased by 11–19%. This study investigates the projected changes in evapotranspiration and irrigation water demand for sugar cane crop Middle and Upper Egypt. The mean air temperature as statistically downscaled and compared with the current climate, defined as the period 1971–2000. FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation was implemented to estimate ETo by using current climatic data. Evapotranspiration is estimated based on the predicted maximum and minimum air temperature using the RCPs scenarios (RCP2.6 – RCP4.5 – RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) during three time series (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). The obtained results revealed that the mean air temperatures were increased under all RCPs scenarios compared to current data. Moreover, the RCP8.5 had the highest mean air temperature compared to the other RCPs scenarios. ETo significant increased in different tested time series compared to the current ETo values. The values of irrigation water demands in long term time series (2071-2100) were higher than short term (2011-2040) or mid-term (2041-2070) with respect to the current situation. *Senior Res., Agricultural Engineering Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Dokki, -Egypt The estimation of water requirements for sugar cane crops in different agro-climatic zone show that Upper Egypt region has the highest Cultivated area of sugar. Total water requirements (WR) for sugar cane during the growing seasons revealed that WR will increase under all scenarios in comparison with the current conditions. Total water budget in Middle and Upper Egypt. For sugar cane crop will increase under all scenarios compared with the current conditions and ranged from 4, to 4,56 billion cubic meters in or mid-term (2041-2070). Total water budget in Middle and Upper Egypt. For sugar cane crop will increase under all scenarios compared with the current conditions and ranged from 4,0 to 4,8 billion cubic meters in (2070-2100). This paper suggested a adaptation options for better water management for sugar cane crop Middle and Upper Egypt region, such as Gated pipe system consumed total water budget in Middle and Upper Egypt. For sugar cane crop will increase under all scenarios compared with the current conditions and ranged from 2.8 to 3.26 billion cubic meters in or mid-term (2041-2070) . Total water budget in Middle and Upper Egypt. For sugar cane crop will increase under all scenarios compared with the current conditions and ranged from 2.9 to 3.3 billion cubic meters in 2070-2100) compare with 4,0 billion cubic meters in flooding system now.

GIS Tool for Distribution Reference Evapotranspiration under Climate Change in Egypt

Current climatic data were collected to estimate ETo from 1998 to 2007 in the major Egyptian agro-climatic regions, i.e. Delta region, Middle Egypt and Upper Egypt, to generate future mean air temperature unde r climate change conditions using Magicc\Scengen model. FAO -56 Penman -Monteith equation was used to estimate ETo by using the collected and generated climatic data. The climate change data were generated under four scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2, according t o IPCC results revealed that ETo significantly increased in 2050s and 2100s compared to the current ETo values. Results indicated that the values of ETo in 2100s were higher than those for 2050s for all studied regions. The average percentages increase in the four tested scenarios of the 2100s for Delta, Middle Egypt and Upper Egypt were 14, 17 and 18%, respectively. The most affected region by climate change was Upper Egypt because it already has the highest ETo under the current conditions; this increase in ETo could affect agricultural expansion negatively, especially if the water resources become a limiting factor. Moreover, the spatial analysis using kriging interpolation showed that the ETo in Egypt will be increased by uneven values under future clima te change, the highest increasing values will appear under the A1 scenario, while the lowest increasing will be observed under B1 and B2 scenarios.

Climatic conditions for the last Neanderthals: Herpetofaunal record of Gorham's Cave, Gibraltar

Gorham's Cave is located in the British territory of Gibraltar in the southernmost end of the Iberian Peninsula. Recent excavations, which began in 1997, have exposed an 18 m archaeological sequence that covered the last evidence of Neanderthal occupation and the first evidence of modern human occupation in the cave. By applying the Mutual Climatic Range method on the amphibian and reptile assemblages, we propose here new quantitative data on the terrestrial climatic conditions throughout the latest Pleistocene sequence of Gorham's Cave. In comparison with current climatic data, all mean annual temperatures were about 1.6–1.8 °C lower in this region. Winters were colder and summers were similar to today. Mean annual precipitation was slightly lower, but according to the Aridity Index of Gaussen there were only four dry months during the latest Pleistocene as opposed to five dry months today during the summer. The climate was Mediterranean and semi-arid (according to the Aridity Index of Dantin–Revenga) or semi-humid (according to the Aridity Index of Martonne). The atmospheric temperature range was higher during the latest Pleistocene, mainly due to lower winter temperatures. Such data support recent bioclimatic models, which indicate that high rainfall levels may have been a significant factor in the late survival of Neanderthal populations in southern Iberia. The Solutrean levels of Gorham's Cave and climate records from cores in the Alboran Sea indicate increasing aridity from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3-2. Because Neanderthals seem to have been associated with woodland habitats, we propose that lessening rainfall may have caused the degradation of large areas of forest and may have made late surviving Neanderthal populations more vulnerable outside southern refuges like the Rock of Gibraltar.

Modelos de las zonas adecuadas de adaptación del tejocote (Crataegus mexicana DC.) por efecto del cambio climático.

The objective of this research was to determine the possible displacement of Crataegus mexicana DC from its current adaptation zones due to the influence of climate change. Two models of suitable growing areas were constructed, one using current climate data and the second using data of the CCM3 model, which predicted the possible climate change to 2050. The model with current climatic data showed that the current growing areas of central Mexico have high to excellent growing conditions, as similar areas of the Transmexican Volcanic Axis, Mexican Plateau, Sierra Madre Oriental, and Sierra Madre del Sur. This model also showed limited adaptation areas on the northeast, northwest and south of the country. In contrast, with the CCM3 model the Transmexican Volcanic Axis, including the current growing areas, improved the conditions from very high to excellent, and improved conditions for cultivation in this and other regions of the country. Therefore, the tejocote will be positively affected by the change in temperature and rainfall to 2050, which could result in an increase in the area dedicated to this crop.

Distribution and agroclimatic characterization of potential cultivation regions of physic nut in Mexico

The purposes of this study were to determine the distribution and climatic patterns of current and future physic nut (Jatropha curcas) cultivation regions in Mexico, and to identify possible locations for in vivo germplasm banks establishment, using geographic information systems. Current climatic data were processed by Floramap software to obtain distribution maps and climatic patterns of regions where wild physic nuts could be found. DIVA-GIS software analyzed current climatic data (Worldclim model) and climatic data generated by CCM3 model to identify current and future physic nut cultivation regions, respectively. The distribution map showed that physic nut was present in most of the tropical and subtropical areas of Mexico, which corresponded to three agroclimatic regions. Climate types were Aw2, Aw1, and Bs1, for regions 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Nontoxic genotypes were associated with region 2, and toxic genotypes were associated with regions 1 and 3. According to the current and future cultivation regions identified, the best suitable ones to establish in vivo germplasm collections were the coast of Michoacán and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, located among the states of Veracruz, Oaxaca and Chiapas.

Estimation of Reference Evapotranspiration by an Energy Balance Approach

The sustainability of irrigated agriculture depends primarily on efficient water use. Efficient irrigation decisions can be expressed as a function of potential atmospheric demand, which is expressed by reference evapotranspiration (ETo) governing either the ideal amount of water taken up by the plants or irrigation frequency of agronomic crops at a given site. All ETo estimation methods refer to daily values including night evaporation losses. Night time losses are only substantial for a few days after rain or irrigation. A method is proposed for estimating ETo based on the local energy balance from limited meteorological data monitored in an automated weather station throughout daylight periods. To validate the current method, climatic data and lysimetric measurements from Piracicaba, Sao Paulo, Brazil were used. Regression analyses revealed that a modified Bowen method provided results similar to the Penman–Monteith method and similar to measurements made by weighing lysimeters with load cells. The modified balance energy approach tended slightly to overestimate evapotranspiration by about 5%, whereas the Penman–Monteith method tended to underestimate atmospheric demand at a rate close to 7%. Given the high coefficients of determination and ease of estimation, the method based on daily net radiation, mean air temperature and relative humidity is recommended for assessment of crop water use for the region studied. Further investigations are required to examine the performance of the modified Bowen approach at other specific sites under different climatic conditions.

Estimating irrigation demand for water management on a regional scale: II. Validation of ADEAUMIS

Current procedures of water management often use simple models and parameterisation to predict demand that may fail in years with extreme climatic and hydrological conditions. The simulation platform ADEAUMIS, presented in a companion paper ( Leenhardt et al., 2004), was developed to improve decision-making in strategic water management. In order to estimate irrigation demand over large areas, it includes a spatial data base and a bio-decisional model. The main variables of the data base are irrigated area, weather data and agricultural practices (crops, sowing dates, varieties and irrigation decision rules). ADEAUMIS was applied in the Baı̈se sector, in south-western France, in 1998 and 2000. This paper presents an evaluation of ADEAUMIS. Firstly, the operational validation was conducted. Estimated and true input variables and predicted and observed output variables of the bio-decisional model of ADEAUMIS were compared. Secondly, its credibility was evaluated by the water manager by comparing ADEAUMIS with the current decision support system (DSS) (called RIO), in order to determine if the new platform allows better decisions. The operational validation raises the problem of the quality of validation data. For the 2 years of simulation, data on water consumption and electricity use (for pumping) were used to construct the reference curve of water withdrawal during the irrigation season. This reference curve was compared to the estimations of ADEAUMIS. There was good agreement for irrigation demand over the whole region for one of the three methods used to estimate irrigated area. The quality and spatial coverage of the water withdrawal reference curve and of independent estimations of irrigated area, used as validation data, are discussed. It seems that a better fit to the reference curve could be obtained by improving the set of decision rules used to reproduce the average irrigation practice of the region, in particular the rules for starting irrigation and the rule for delaying irrigation following rainfall. ADEAUMIS was evaluated as a decision tool on a year (1998) for which RIO failed in the sense that decisions regarding water deliveries or restrictions were difficult to make. Better decisions would have been made with ADEAUMIS. This led the water manager to consider ADEAUMIS as satisfactory for strategic water management The major contribution of ADEAUMIS, compared to RIO, is the better estimation of the temporal dynamics of irrigation. This is due to the use of a crop model with current year climatic data and the representation of irrigation practices.

Neolithic wooden trackways and bog hydrology

Five wooden trackways in raised bogs located along a precipitation gradient in Northwest Europe (Ireland, England, The Netherlands and Germany), and all dated toc. 2600 cal.BC, show differences in building method related to variable hydrological conditions in the local bog surfaces. Differences in the bearing strength of the highly humified hummock-hollow surfaces can be largely attributed to differences in the climatically related water content of the peat. Water balance studies, based on current climatic data and using the concept of system-linked discharge, can explain the hydrological differences between the ombrotrophic bogs established by archaeological excavations of the wooden trackways. Active peat growth at the time of construction and building methods used indicate mean annual precipitation values similar to present reflecting the modern rainfall gradient.