Currency Exchange Rates Research Articles

Transmission of Inflation and Exchange Rate Effects: The Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Methodology

The aim of this study is to delve into the intricate the mechanism through which alterations in currency exchange rates give rise to shifts in inflation rates, while taking into careful consideration the country’s economic cycle. In order to accomplish this objective, we used a dataset that spanned from 1 January 1999 to 1 July 2023, focusing our analytical lens on three specific geographic areas, namely the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Canada. In our pursuit of understanding this complex relationship, we employed the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive model. Our research outcomes can be succinctly encapsulated as follows: in the initial stages, particularly during phases characterized by robust economic growth, the transmission of exchange rate effects onto inflation levels appeared to exhibit a partial impact across all geographic areas under examination. However, during periods marked by economic downturns, both the United Kingdom and Canada displayed a distinctly more comprehensive transmission of these effects. Moreover, the prevailing projections for the forthcoming time horizon, across all the countries encompassed by our study, strongly indicate the onset of an expansionary phase that is projected to extend over a span of 25 months. Lastly, concerning the implications of unexpected disturbances or shocks, it is noteworthy that the response of exchange rates to inflation induced shocks was neither immediate nor as pronounced as the corresponding reaction of inflation to sudden shifts in exchange rates.

Analyzing Exchange Rate Effects on Trade: Empirical Evidence

In this study, we aimed to find a fair exchange rate for Egypt, exploring how exchange rate policies affect the country’s economic growth and food security. We also sought to answer an important question for Egyptian policymakers: “Do current exchange rate policies help reduce Egypt’s trade deficit?”. We used two methods in our research: First, we applied the purchasing power parity (PPP) method to determine the equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER). Then, we combined the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) with the ERER value from the PPP method to observe how different sectors interact with the overall economy and understand how household incomes and poverty levels are related. Our findings showed that the fair exchange rate is EGP 38.5 per US dollar, according to the PPP method. This new exchange rate may significantly impact the Egyptian economy. Some impacts are positive, such as better real GDP, more exports, and fewer imports; however, these are minor and not significant. On the downside, it may lead to higher inflation, increased prices for goods, and reduced consumption. Moreover, this study highlights the importance of having balanced exchange rate policies that consider Egypt’s unique economic situations, and challenges and align with other economic policies. Experience and reality have shown that exchange rates alone are not the only solution.

Similarity Measures between Buying and Selling Prices of Various Exchange Rates with the inclusion of Multidimensionality and Multicollinearity

This paper introduces a new statistical model, the multidimensional measurement error model with multicollinearity, to study the relationship between buying and selling prices of foreign exchange rates of various currencies. Such a model is needed due to the possible rise in multidimensionality and multicollinearity issues that may occur due to the movement of the financial markets towards stock market integration of various countries since the occurrences of the financial crisis as well as the part result of globalization. As this integration involves the participation of various countries, it will affect the foreign exchange rate. Hence, the analyses are performed on seven currencies against the Malaysian Ringgit where four models’ performances are compared. From this research, it can be concluded that the proposed model comparatively performs better than the other models in representing the relationship of the stationary prices and performs as well as existing models towards non-stationary prices. It can also be seen that the Japanese Yen is the currency that has the strongest influence and closer similar trends towards other currencies while the Great British Pound showed otherwise.

On the time-varying impact of China's bilateral political relations on its trading partners: “Doux commerce” or “trade follows the flag”?

We assess the impact of China's bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over the 1960Q1–2022Q4 period. Relying on the lag-augmented VAR approach with time-varying Granger causality tests, we find that political relationships with China strongly matter in explaining the dynamics of current accounts and exchange rates, supporting the “trade follows the flag” view. Such relationships cause the evolution of the exchange rate (except in the UK) and the current account; these causal links being time-varying for the US and the UK and robust over the entire period for Germany. These findings suggest that policymakers should account for bilateral political relationships to understand the global macroeconomic consequences of political tensions.

Significance of States with the Largest Defense Allocations (In Millions of US Dollars at Current Prices and Exchange Rates) to Corruption Issues

The defense sector will always be vulnerable to corruption, due to risks from high levels of secrecy, complex technical procurement, and exploitation of the hierarchical nature of the military. This study aims to provide a description of the significance of the country's largest defense allocation (in millions of US$ at current prices and exchange rates) to corruption. The approach used in this research is descriptive quantitative. The data used uses the country's CPI (Corruption Perception Index) issued by TII and the country's defense allocation issued by SIPRI. Data analysis used the method of testing the hypothesis through the khai-square distribution. This study concludes that the number of countries with CPI below the average of the 50 countries with the largest defense allocation (in millions of US$ at current prices and exchange rates) is not constant and therefore the cause is a significant factor. meaning that it can be interpreted that countries with large defense allocations tend to have a CPI below the average.

Critical Indicators on Macro Economics adoption in GDP: A systematic review

The study's goal is to investigate how important macroeconomic factors affect certain African nations. These metrics are crucial for the economies' effective development and can be utilized to address the many economic issues that the chosen countries are currently dealing with. 91 publications published between 2004 and 2022 were examined using the Scopus database. With an emphasis on five major factors: Growth Domestic Product (GDP), Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Foreign Direct Investment this study evaluated and analyzed the literary elements and themes explored in order to give guidance for future research. The findings revealed that Interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and foreign direct investment (FDI) are some of the macroeconomic variables that can affect the selected African economies. Foreign direct investment has been identified as the most important factor in improving industrial prosperity and living standards in developing economies such as Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco after stabilizing interest rates, inflation and currency exchange rates. The study's findings are supported by material that has been published in previous years. Given that a number of recent economic issues have had an impact on the expansion of the economy, it is necessary to evaluate the ideas using panel data from the past 20 years in order to ascertain whether they are still valid. The report highlights the key macroeconomic factors that may have an impact on five different African economies. The study combines a number of economic metrics that have previously been studied separately to assess the trend in the economies it has chosen. To the best of my knowledge, this study is one of the few that evaluates both the individual countries used and the indicators in general.

Analysis of Trade Effects of Parallel Exchange Rate in Nigeria

Aims: The study examines the potency of parallel exchange rates in the movement of international trade in Nigeria. The monetary authorities have embarked on various exchange rate regimes basically because the supply of foreign exchange is not enough to meet the demand. Consequently, a parallel market for exchange rates exists and has become a strong and functional market in the country. But the reason for managing foreign exchange and by extension, introducing various exchange rate regimes was to correct the balance of trade disequilibrium. Yet the balance of trade deteriorates, particularly that of non-oil trade balance. Does the parallel exchange rate contribute to this or does it ameliorate it? Study Design: Descriptive, Correlation, and Regression analysis on time series data. Place and Duration of Study: Sample: Monthly data from January 2007 to December 2022 (2007:1-2022:12) were extracted from the online data repository of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Methodology: The autoregressive distributed lag technique was employed on monthly data between January 2007 and December 2022 (2007:1-2022:12). Results: The result indicates that the short-run dynamics of total exports (total imports) are negatively (positively) and significantly affected by parallel exchange rate. Generally, depreciation of the parallel exchange rate is detrimental to export particularly non-oil exports. Further, depreciation of parallel exchange rate encourages imports and highly persistent in influencing non-oil imports. The J-curve phenomenon breaks down for total balance of trade. However, the J-curve phenomenon cannot be confirmed in the case of oil trade balance because there is no information about the long run effect of parallel exchange rate on oil export due to the non-integration of the model. In the case of non-oil trade balance, the short-run outcome confirms the existence of the J-curve prediction. Conclusion: Following these results, it is recommended among others that government should activate a single market (window) for foreign exchange. Also, the authorities should ensure that importation of non-oil products such as exotic cars by government officials be stemmed.

Are engineers more likely to avoid algorithms after they see them err? A longitudinal study

ABSTRACT Research suggests the superior predictive capabilities of algorithms compared to humans. However, people's reluctance to use algorithms after witnessing their inaccuracies has hindered their widespread adoption. Studies have explored this reluctance, but little is known about how different people use algorithms. We focused on algorithm utilisation by engineers, conducting two longitudinal ecological momentary assessment studies outside the lab to explore differences in how engineers and non-engineers engage with inaccurate algorithms. These studies involved 427 participants, predicting currency exchange rates or maximum weather temperatures over nine days based on the judge-advisor system framework. Our results showed a significant three-way interaction between the effects of advice source, whether participants were engineers or non-engineers, and time. Specifically, the trend of inaccurate algorithm use significantly decreased over time for engineers, highlighting the importance of considering the end-users when implementing algorithms.

Macroeconomic Analysis Of Trade Balance In 2013 – 2022

This rapid economic change causes the currency exchange rate to fall and the price of basic necessities to increase. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method is used to assess the trade balance due to the economic crisis, and the export growth of Indonesia's export destination countries will weaken as a result of the crisis. The domestic purchasing power of Indonesia's export destination countries has also declined as a result of the crisis. Secondary data published by BPS for the period 2013–2022 were used in this study. The data was processed using the SPSS V.27 program, which shows that Indonesia's trade balance cannot be separated from exchange rates, inflation, and interest rates, so that all three variables have an impact on the trade balance simultaneously. The estimation of the trade balance model in Indonesia shows that each independent variable—exchange rate, inflation, and interest rate—has a partial effect on the country's trade balance. The greatest influence of this variable was 57.22% on the country's trade balance, and other variables that were not discussed in the study.

DETERMINANTS OF CONSUMER EGG PRICES IN TURKIYE USING K-NEAREST NEIGHBORS REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Examining the factors impacting egg consumer prices in Turkiye holds significant importance. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of how specific variables influence market prices and illuminates cause-and-effect relationships in price fluctuations. The study analyzed 131 datasets from Turkiye, covering the period from January 2010 to November 2020, including various factors. The primary aim was to predict the relationships and impacts on egg consumer prices by considering variables such as laying hens feed price, the exchange rate of the US dollar, producer price indices, agricultural producer price indices, feed prices for broilers, corn, barley, and soybeans, utilizing K-nearest neighbors (KNN) regression analysis. Within the model, the consumer price of eggs showed the weakest correlation with the corn variable (r = 0.832). In contrast, the consumer price of eggs displayed the highest correlation with the US dollar exchange rate and soybean variables (r = 0.892). Therefore, it is evident that egg consumer prices are significantly influenced by the costs of raw materials for feed and currency exchange rates. Unlike other studies, this study found that the price of broiler feed also affects consumer egg prices. Thus, it is imperative for Turkiye to implement policies promoting the local supply of imported inputs essential for egg production and adopt measures to manage and mitigate exchange rate fluctuations and production expenses. Keywords: Egg, consumer price, laying hens feed price, Dollar exchange rate, Turkiye

Assessment of health consequences of fossil fuel energy use in Osun state, Nigeria: burden and implications

The use of fossil fuel energy persists in all the continents of the world, especially in Africa. This study examined fossil fuel energy usage and its health implications in residents of Osun State, Nigeria. This was a cross-sectional study done across Osun State Nigeria. The study took place between January and June 2020. 1044 participants were recruited by multi-stage random sampling. Structured questionnaires were used to obtain necessary information from the study participants. The study data shows there were 534 females (51.1%). 601 (57.6%) relied solely on fossil fuel energy compared to 443 (42.4%) who use non-traditional energy sources. The proportion of people whose annual income is less than 56.6 USD (fifty thousand Naira based on the current official exchange rate as of Jan 2024) is far higher among those who use fossil fuel energy (88.0%) compared to those who use modern energy (59.1%). Electricity consumption accessibility was also more likely among those who used modern energy (91.9%) compared to 52.4% of those who use fossil fuel energy for daily energy needs. Reports of ill-health were significantly commoner among those who used fossil fuel than modern energy in the population including asthma illness (15.3% vs. 11.3%), cough (21.1% vs. 16.7%), catarrh (19.3% vs. 10.8%) and difficulty in breathing (9.3% vs. 6.3%) respectively. This study showed that fossil fuel energy use is very prevalent among residents of Osun State, Nigeria. And may be linked with many indices of poverty. It is associated with significant health impacts including respiratory diseases and poor quality of life. There is a need to encourage and implement policies toward effective and efficient energy use among residents in Osun State to reduce the associated long-term health impact.

Framework for Examining the Correlation Between Trade Liberalization and Employment in Nigeria

This research examines the relationship between trade liberalization and employment in Nigeria using a retrospective research approach. The study considers variables such as the employment rate, trade openness index, foreign direct investment, and currency exchange rate. The analytical framework combines classical linear regression and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models to capture both short-term and long-term dynamics. Diagnostic tests, including descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Perron Unit Root Test, ARDL-Bound test, and Error Correction Model (ECM)-ARDL test, are conducted to analyze the collected data. The study utilizes secondary data from the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria (2018) covering the period from 1985 to 2018. The findings of the study are mixed. The error correction estimates indicate a negative relationship between the trade openness index and the employment rate. On the other hand, foreign direct investment shows a negative relationship with employment rate, but this relationship is not statistically significant. The exchange rate demonstrates a positive and significant correlation with the employment rate. It was recommended that, Diversifying Nigeria's economy by promoting domestic industries like agriculture, manufacturing, and services to create job opportunities and reduce import dependence. Implement effective labor market policies including job training, worker protections, and competitive labor market measures to mitigate negative impacts of trade liberalization on employment. Target FDI to sectors with high job creation potential, incentivizing investments, supporting technology transfer, and fostering partnerships for employment growth in Nigeria.

Analysis of the Effect of Inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Foreign Currency Exchange Rates and Interest Rates on the Profitability of Sharia Commercial Banks in Indonesia (Case Study of Bank Muamalat for the 2007-2023 Period)

This research aims to analyze the influence of Inflation, Gross Domestic Product, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates on the profitability of Islamic banking, especially Bank Muamalat. This research uses descriptive quantitative methods. The data in this research is secondary time series data published by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), Financial Services Authority (OJK). The data analysis technique uses multiple linear regression analysis which has previously been tested with classical assumptions. The results of multiple linear regression include that inflation and exchange rates have a significant effect on RoA, GDP and interest rates do not have a significant effect on RoA and inflation, economic growth, exchange rates and interest rates have a significant effect on Return on Assets of Bank Muamalat for the 2007-2023 period.

Impacts on Imported Medical Device in India

The limited indigenous production capability of medical equipment necessitates that the Indian healthcare industry recognise the repercussions of importing them. There are advantages and disadvantages to the system from the rise of these devices. In order to manage these effects, comprehensive laws and regulations are essential. Costs associated with import tariffs, shipping, and currency exchange rates rise when medical equipment is purchased overseas. This is partly due to the need for high-quality services, the rise in healthcare spending, and technological improvements. The rapid advancement of technology may present difficulties in terms of infrastructure adaptation and educating healthcare workers.

Новеллы правового регулирования вывозных таможенных пошлин

The article discusses innovations in the legal regulation of export customs duties established by the Government of the Russian Federation. The author analyzes the legal nature of the introduced rates of export customs duties, the amount of which depends on the exchange rate of the national currency, formulates proposals for amending the legislation regulating customs relations in the Russian Federation in order to protect the rights of persons exporting goods for personal use, as well as preserving state resources organs.

The Company Share Prices in Indonesia During the Covid-19 Pandemic

The Covid-19 pandemic in 2019 to 2021 affected world economic conditions, including inflation, currency exchange rates and world gold prices. This situation changed the direction of investment from the real sector to investing in gold and stocks. This study analyzed the variables of inflation, the rupiah exchange rates, the price of gold on the share prices of PT ANTM, Tbk. The approach used causalistic quantitative by processing secondary data in the form of monthly report data that had been published on the official website. The population and sample were 36 samples of monthly reports obtained by total sampling technique. To test and analyze the hypothesis SPSS version 20 was used. The results of the study: first, inflation has a significant effect on share prices, with a significance value of 0.030.; second, the price of gold has no effect and is not significant on stock prices, with a significance value of 0.422; third, the exchange rate has no effect and is not significant on stock prices, with a significance value of 0.093; fourth, inflation, gold price and exchange rate variables simultaneously have a significant effect on share prices, with a significance value of 0.002. 0.05). Investors were interested in investing in Mining Company shares during the Covid-19 pandemic. This investment decision was regardless of Indonesia's economic situation at the time of Covid-19 which was completely uncertain, especially in investment.

Disturbing Effects of Global Oil Price Changes: Case of Azerbaijan

General topic in this paper is the role of oil industry in global economy and the result of changing oil prices on economic variables in Azerbaijan. The major aim is to analyze the effects of crude oil price changes on Azerbaijan economy in order to measure how changes in oil prices affect its basic economic variables. At the beginning, a general outlook on oil industry will be given and the main oil exporting economies will be analized. However, main focus will be on the structure of Azerbaijan’s economy and it will examine the example of Azerbaijan as a transition economy where oil and gas production and exports have steadily increased from the mid ‘90s. Many critical oil and gas extraction projects have been implemented; while the oil and gas sector's dominance in the economy poses a number of threats to the balanced development of the country's economy. It will show how the economy of Azerbaijan was affected after the oil crisis, such as other developing countries that mainly depending on oil and petroleum products. For this purpose, VEC Model has been applied, consdering Azerbaijan Statistic Data and analized the effects of oil price fluctuations on its economic variables parallel with the oil industry. The main findings indicate that Azerbaijan's economy is strongly dependent on resource exports, which produce high growth rates when commodity prices are favorable, but end up with lower macroeconomic performance when global oil prices fall. It is clear that the main income of Azerbaijan comes from oil and oil products, so the export of oil will have a high impact on the saving level of the population. At the time of high revenues come from export and the low exchange rate of the foreign currency in Azerbaijan has also led to the low cost of imported goods. As well demonstrated in the research, Azerbaijan economy has been widely exposed to major crude oil price distortions. It can be said that in order to avoid increasing overdependence on oil earnings, diversifying the economy should be a top priority.

Profitability Function on Capital Adequacy Ratio Model

The purpose of this study is to look at the relationship between the variables NIM, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), Current Exchange Rate (CER), and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CER). This is predicated on the observation that multiple prior studies have yielded differing results, which motivates academics to conduct additional study. This study used 10 cross-sectional samples and a six-year time series with panel data multiple regression analysis. It is classified as quantitative descriptive research. This research formula uses NIM as an intervening variable with the goal of maximizing the CAR value. The primary focus of this research is the banking businesses that are listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The use of multiple regression analysis is made to investigate panel data techniques, and two integrated research models are created into a single study model. The first study model's findings support the relevant theory by showing that CER can positively correlate its effect on NIM. Another finding in the second research model is that NIM has a positive association with its influence on CAR, which is consistent with the relevant theory. Only the relationship between CER and CAR can be explained by the NIM function as an intervening variable. It is envisaged that these findings would serve as a manual for Indonesian banking professionals to help them optimize the capital adequacy ratio

Comparative Analysis of ML Models for Currency Exchange Rate Prediction

The primary aim of this research is to improve the prediction of the exchange rate between the United States Dollar (USD) and the Indian Rupee (INR), which is an area that has received little attention in the field of financial forecasting. In contrast to widespread methodologies that consolidate results over several currency pair, this study specifically concentrates on the USD to INR pair, recognising the distinctive economic and political dynamics between the United States and India. This study aims to do a comparative analysis of four various machine learning models, namely RNN, ARIMA, LSTM, and Random Forest, in order to determine the best effective tool for predicting exchange rates in a certain context. This research employs a holistic methodology, including a wide range of variables like trade balances, interest rates, and geopolitical events, so providing a multifaceted forecasting approach. The growing economic interdependence between the United States and India highlights the practical importance of precise predictions for many stakeholders, such as traders, investors, and politicians. Furthermore, the study examines the concept of dynamic model updating, a novel attribute that augments flexibility within the ever-changing financial industry. The primary objective of this work is to address a significant need in current academic research by developing a reliable and practical instrument for accurately forecasting the exchange rate between the United States Dollar (USD) and the Indian Rupee (INR). This research is notable for its specific concentration, use of comparative methods, and its potential to make substantial advancements in both academic and practical domains pertaining to currency exchange rate forecasting.

The possibility of parallel market correction for exchange rate changes according to the ARDL and ARIMA models

The parallel market is an indicator of the prevailing economic situation in the country, and the exchange rate is one of the important tools that link the local economy to the global economy. It also plays an important role in influencing many variables in the Iraqi economy. Therefore, we find that the monetary authority represented by the Central Bank of Iraq is in a continuous monetary struggle across... Over the past few years and up to the present, we have sought to find accurate solutions to the problem of the difference between the official and parallel exchange rates.As the sustainable and growing difference between the two prices leaves the impression on the public of turning towards the foreign currency in their transactions and reducing transactions in the local currency, then the effect is greatly reflected in the Iraqi economic sectors, especially the commercial sector, causing large and sudden changes in price levels, which creates and stimulates a group of complicit traders and researchers. For their personal gains through illegal and fraudulent means, which harms the interests of society as a whole, and this is what we notice. Despite the attempts made by the Central Bank of Iraq, they did not significantly affect the reduction of the difference between the two prices. Therefore, this study attempted to find a predictive approach between the official and parallel exchange rates through the model. According to the standard forecast, we see that the parallel exchange rate will reach (1433.64) per US dollar in the future for the year 2027. Therefore, the Central Bank, the government, and members of society must use all measures necessary to address the imbalances in the exchange rate.