Cumulative Causation Theory Research Articles

On the footsteps of parents? Migration experience and aspirations of university students in Moldova

ABSTRACT This article investigates the impact of parental migration on the migration aspirations of university students in Moldova. Through 24 semi-structured in-depth interviews with university students, the article aims to answer the questions of what shapes the migration aspirations of young students and whether and to what extent their parents’ migration experience impacts this process. The findings show that young Moldovan students are mainly pushed to emigrate by very low living standards, economic and political uncertainty and pulled abroad by better job offers and higher incomes. Highly skilled positions and short-term stays abroad were preferred, corresponding more to the new economics of labour migration concept than the neoclassical economics model. The study results question the validity of the cumulative causation theory, as there was only a mixed indication that parents’ former migratory experience strengthens their child’s pro-migration aspirations.

Who Matters Most? Migrant Networks, Tie Strength, and First Rural–Urban Migration to Dakar

Social networks' influence on migration has long been explored largely through the lenses of cumulative causation and social capital theory. This article aims to reconceptualize elements of these theories for the case of rural-urban migration and test their utility in explaining first-migration timing. We use a uniquely extensive social network survey linked to prospectively collected migration data in rural Senegal. We decompose migrant networks into return migrants, current migrants, and nonmigrant residents of the destination to capture heterogeneity in migration-relevant social capital. As expected, the number of nonmigrant alters living in the capital, Dakar, has an outsized association with the migration hazard, the number of current migrants from the village living in Dakar has a smaller association, and the number of return migrants has little association. Drawing on social capital theory, we test the influence of (1) subjectively assessed tie strength between the ego and their network alters and (2) structurally weak ties measured through second-order ("friend of a friend") connections. Weak and strong subjective ties to current migrants and nonmigrant Dakar residents are positively associated with the first-migration hazard. Structurally weak ties to current migrants are too, but only for individuals with no direct ties to current migrants.

Energy poverty in the świętokrzyskie voivodeship during the Covid-19 pandemic - In the context of the cumulative causation theory

Purpose of the study: The purpose of this article is to answer the question: does changing the socioeconomic situation alter the households’ condition and energy poverty level in a noticeable manner in the region? (with particular emphasis on the COVID-19 pandemic period).
 Methodology: An inherent aspect of poverty is the limitation of the broadly defined development opportunities, both on economic, political, and social levels. Since economic poverty co-occurs with the phenomenon of energy poverty in households, the author posited the following thesis: there is a relationship between energy poverty and economic situation of households and health of its members in the region. The analysis will be based on: a study of household budgets, social diagnosis and available reports on energy poverty, and supplemented by an interpretation of an original survey conducted in the Świętokrzyskie voivodeship (conducted in mid-2021 for the previous two years).
 Main Findings: Effectively combating energy poverty in the country and in a specific area (including the voivodeship) requires adequate recognition of the situation and identification of the people or households affected. The multifaceted nature of the phenomenon does not make it easy to choose which of the known indicators should be analyzed first. Moreover, its consequences vary as well. More details you will see at the conclusion.
 Applications of the study: The article presents the phenomenon of energy poverty accompanying both social and economic life (the phenomenon of poverty should be considered multidimensionally). The social and health costs of energy poverty were emphasized. The content of the article can be useful for a wide group of recipients interested in the subject under research. Besides, this research is expected to be applied in Jan Kochanowski University during practical meetings with students.
 Novelty/Originality of the study: The COVID-19 pandemic is having a noticeable impact on society and its members, individual markets, and the economy as a whole. Undeniably we have found ourselves in a difficult situation where numerous concepts are beginning to take on a deeper meaning. This includes energy poverty. In addition, there is no comprehensive research on the topic described in the title (for the Świętokrzyskie voivodeship) and the article tries to fill this gap. The article can inspire further research and inquiry in the field of it.

The out-migration of young people from a region of the “Empty Spain”: Between a constant slump cycle and a pending innovation spiral

Depopulation is one of the main problems in declining rural territories, whose inhabitants have the perception of being immersed in a spiral of socio-economic deterioration where each setback experienced in the region push a greater number of young people towards the decision to emigrate. This process was described by the economist G. Myrdal through his theory of circular and cumulative causation (CCC), which explains both the territorial processes of decline and economic and demographic improvement found in other regions. Applying the CCC approach to investigate the causes that for decades have led young people to emigrate from a region of so-called Empty Spain, the Altiplano de Granada, this article describes its linkage with three closely interrelated factors of territorial development: human capital, social capital, and capacity for innovation. The results of the binary logistic regression analysis based on a survey of 446 young people between 15 and 19 years of age, suggest four main predictors of the intention to stay in their rural hometowns: gender, the personal attachment, the father's education level, and the interest in the family history. Conversely, no significant relations were found between social capital and intention to stay or leave the Altiplano de Granada. Specific recommendations for policies and rural development programs emerge from these results regarding the inclusion of youth, education systems, and local innovation systems as a priority.

Rural modernisation through intensive vegetable farming agribusiness in Indonesia

ABSTRACT Traditional farming that changes to profitable agribusiness can serve a machine for rural modernisation. This article assesses factors that determined the decision of smallholder vegetable producers to participate in vegetable-based agribusiness and analyses the impact of agribusiness participation and other determinants on the economic returns. Structural equation modelling was employed to show a proposed model of cumulative causation theory. Data were compiled from a quantitative survey of 357 selected farm households located in major vegetable-producing areas of Bali and Java, Indonesia. Results show that human capital and household endowment motivated farmers to participate in vegetable-based agribusiness. Women's participation significantly contributed to agribusiness participation and agribusiness participation led to income generation. Opportunities exist to expand vegetable-based agribusiness and increase farmers’ income by providing adequate access to transportation infrastructure, an advantageous agribusiness environment, and investing in human capital through training and extension services.

A Model of Internal Migration: An Extended Neo-classical Migration Model and Evaluation of Regional Migration Determinants in Poland

The goal of this paper was to carry out an empirical verifi cation of the theoretical model of internal migration and evaluate the infl uence of selected determinants on internal migration in Poland. In order to achieve this goal, an analysis of internal migration in Poland and an econometric analysis were carried out. The analysis was processed using data from 16 voivodeships (i.e. on the NUTS2 level); the analyzed period was from 2003 to 2017. Based on selected theoretical concepts of migration and present studies on internal migration, the theoretical model of internal migration was specifi ed. A total of fi ve models were estimated; fi rst, four models were estimated for all voivodeships and subsequently a GLS estimate was carried out with the so-called “strong region”. Results of the econometric analysis show that regional wage differences together with differences in the unemployment rate determined internal migration, which is in agreement with the assumptions of neo-classical economy. The positive relationship was indicated between the degree of migration and its delayed variable last year, which points simultaneously to the validity of the assumption of the theory of cumulative causation. The test of the dummy variable has shown that the degree of regional migration increased in the period of crisis. From the perspective of push and pull factors, pull factors in the host region were the following determinants: wage, demand for work in the industrial sector of the economy, and foreign human capital; on the contrary, push factors included the increasing unemployment rate, housing costs and the degree of urbanization.

El enfoque de sistemas migratorios revisitado. Una propuesta teórica para el estudio del sistema migratorio de América Latina y el Caribe

Resumen El objetivo de este artículo es revisitar los orígenes, desarrollo, límites y potencialidades del enfoque de sistemas migratorios, para formular una propuesta teórica que, a la hora de analizar la conformación, retroalimentación y reconfiguración de los sistemas migratorios, considere el papel de la estructura, de los factores de carácter meso (como las instituciones o los colectivos) y de la agencia migrante (individual y colectiva). Partimos para ello, de una perspectiva crítica dialéctica que establece un vínculo entre los elementos del sistema con los condicionantes estructurales, al tiempo que recupera la agencia migrante, principalmente en su dimensión colectiva. Nuestra propuesta será aplicada exploratoriamente al estudio del sistema migratorio de América Latina y el Caribe en el periodo 1970-2018. Más allá de una mera descripción de los principales rasgos del sistema y sus subsistemas, tratamos de mostrar los elementos que condicionan su estabilidad y evolución, resaltando, además de los elementos clásicos de los sistemas, el peso de los condicionantes estructurales, así como de las resistencias y estrategias desarrolladas por los colectivos migrantes.

El turismo de cruceros de la isla de Cozumel, México: más allá del Caribe

La localización de isla Cozumel (México) en el mar Caribe favorece la existencia de recursos naturales óptimos para la actividad turística. La infraestructura hotelera, así como otras diversiones, son todas de alta calidad. Sin embargo, en las costas mexicanas se localizan puertos relativamente similares, pero (excepto Cancún) están lejos de competir con Cozumel demostrando que el entorno físico favorable y equipamiento avanzado pueden ser insuficientes para integrarlos a las redes internacionales de cruceros. Del hecho anterior, se planteó como objetivo central del presente estudio identificar otros factores que explicaran el protagonismo de esta isla partiendo de referentes específicos, como la teoría de Causación Circular Acumulativa combinada con los efectos de propagación espacial del desarrollo, planteando aquí que una estructura económica especializada en el turismo sería un factor adicional y decisivo para explicar la importancia de este puerto. Después de analizar el caso de Cozumel bajo diversos enfoques, se encontró una economía especializada en los servicios; pero también la presencia de una población con alta capacitación para atender al turista se significó como factor sustancial de atracción para visitantes extranjeros.

Elites and emulators: The evolution of Iraqi Kurdish asylum migration to Europe

AbstractResearch on migration’s internal dynamics has focused on labour migration and drawn heavily on cumulative causation theory. It is often believed that pioneer labour migrants of middling socioeconomic selectivity facilitate the migration of others in their networks by reducing the costs and risks of migration through practical assistance. Expanding migrant networks can allow for labour migration to grow although macrostructural conditions change. For asylum migration in the context of armed conflict, the mechanisms whereby migration grows may very well differ. For one thing, pioneer asylum migrants in such contexts are often social elites. What is the relationship between the movement of these elites and that of subsequent asylum migrants? This article traces the evolution of Iraqi Kurdish asylum migration to Europe from its inception by elite pioneer migrants to its continuation by non-elites, during four decades of altered contextual conditions. The analysis is based on 106 semi-structured interviews with Iraqi Kurdish migrants. An evolving interplay between exogenous and endogenous dynamics is observed, and so are commonalities with the social processes that underpin labour migration. The basic principles of cumulative causation seem to be operating, yet there is little to indicate that established migrants functioned as ‘bridgeheads’ for newcomers. The empirical analysis feeds into a concluding conceptual discussion in which I argue that, compared to labour migration, asylum migration from conflict-affected areas may be relatively less driven by the interpersonal networks that reduce costs and risks, and relatively more driven by what the article coins ‘emulation’, the observational learning of migration.

Investment Expenditures of Local municipalities in Japan in the 2000s

In this paper, I analyzed the investment expenditures of local municipalities in Japan in the 2000s by examining the cases of different municipalities and obtained the following results. First, merged municipalities issued Special Merger Bonds and nonmerged/depopulated municipalities issued Depopulation Bonds most. Second, in nonmerged/nondepopulated municipalities began to focus more on works funded by grants and local bonds rather than on unsubsidized works funded by Road Bonds and other types of local bonds. That is, in the past, the total value of Road Bonds was the largest of all bond totals. However, Road Bonds were replaced by School Bonds issued to supplement School Block Grants established during the decentralization reform in the 2000s. Therefore, this phenomenon is one of the outcomes of the decentralization reform. In Japan, the decentralization can increase public works for schools in cities and some select towns and villages with high financial capability indices. This could widen the gap between rich and poor municipalities. The theory of cumulative causation by Gunnar Myrdal can be attributed to this phenomenon

J.R.コモンズの累積的因果連関論 : 『制度経済学』と1927年草稿の比較分析

J.R.コモンズの累積的因果連関論 : 『制度経済学』と1927年草稿の比較分析

The Development of International Tourism Space in Terms of Cumulative Causation Theory : Tourist Experiences in China

이 글은 이민연구 분야의 누적적 인과이론(cumulative causation model)에 입각해 관광과 이민 간의 관계라는 시각으로 개발도상국과 선진국의 입국관광객 증가율에 차이가 나타나는 현상을 분석한 글이다. 이 글에서는 개발도상국 관광객이 중국을 관광하는 다양한 목적이 관광객의 현지 사회 네트워크로의 진입을 유발시켰고, 바로 이 점에서 누적적 인과 메커니즘이 작동하여 관광객이 현지 사회 네트워크에 진입할 때 현지 사회의 경제 및 문화를 이해하는 데 도움을 주었다는 것이 드러났다. 또한 관광객이 주위의 지인에게 중국 방문을 추천할 가능성을 증가시켰으며, 중국에서 일하고 생활할 때 드는 비용을 감소시켜 이민 혹은 장기 체류에 교량 역할을 한다는 것을 밝혔다. 이 글은 광저우(廣州)시 외국인 조사 통계 자료를 바탕으로 동시발생분석 및 다층모형분석법을 통해 결론을 입증했다. 이 글에서 살펴본 관광 연구 분야의 누적적 인과의 원리는 현재 관광객 집단, 특히 저개발국가의 관광객과 관광을 이해하는 데 도움을 준다.

Migration Intentions of Post War Youths in Sri Lanka: A Systematic Review of Literature on Causes of Migration

This is a conceptual paper to understand the migration of youth population from Sri Lanka. The study reviews recent migration literature. Many actors have taken many initiatives to create a better future for youth in Sri Lanka. This includes provision of free and/or affordable education, skill development opportunities, and integration to development process, to shape the future. But there is a significant segment of the youth population who are not satisfied about the available opportunities and choices within Sri Lanka. They are not convinced for a better and safer society in future. In this research, the migration drivers and tendencies are examined and researched from a theoretical point of view with a special importance to perspectives and causes for migration of youths of post-war Sri Lanka. Objectives of this study are to understand reasons for youth migration and to understand the expected future relationship with home country. Many international migration theories have been proposed to assess and explain the underlying phenomena of international migration. Conventional findings suggest that migration can be explained with Neo-classical Theory of Migration, Theory of Economics of Migration, Dual Market Theory, Social Capital Theory, Cumulative Causation Theory and Trans-nationalism. However, international migration is a complex issue with multiple facets. One single theory may only explain a particular aspect of international migration. This study indicates that most of youth migrate to different countries due to perceived uncertainty placed upon their future and it cannot be explained with a single theory. This study makes major contributions to the existing theory in International Migration of Youth Population of Sri Lanka. The paper concluded with propositions, and recommendations on future research on understanding migration of youth.

International competitiveness in post-Keynesian growth theory: controversies and empirical evidence

A fundamental starting point for post-Keynesian theory concerning growth in open economies is succinctly expressed in the following statement by Kaldor: ‘[T]he main autonomous factor governing both the level and the rate of growth of effective demand of an industrial country…is the external demand for its exports: and the main factor governing the latter is international competitiveness, which in turn depends on the level of its industrial cost relatively to other industrial exporters’ (Kaldor, 1971, p. 7; italics added). Moreover, thanks to increasing returns in manufacturing, export expansion and international competitiveness would interact so as to create vicious or virtuous circles of cumulative causation. A few years later Kaldor, having found a positive correlation between the time changes of the main industrial countries’ relative manufacturing export shares and that of their relative unit costs—a correlation that became known as the ‘Kaldor paradox’—dismissed his original cumulative causation theory and adopted a version close to Harrod’s ‘foreign trade multiplier’. The purpose of this paper is to reaffirm the Kaldorian cumulative causation theory in its original version, by providing a firmer analytical basis and showing that, contrary to the ‘Kaldor paradox’, time changes in export performance must be ‘explained’ by levels rather than by changes in unit costs.

O problema do emprego em Palmas-PR: uma proposta de rompimento do ciclo vicioso

<p>Neste estudo se apresenta uma breve análise sobre a condição de desenvolvimento do município de Palmas-PR a partir de um diagnóstico da dinâmica do emprego. Para tal, são levantados aspectos da distribuição do emprego por atividades econômicas, rotatividade e migração interna. A metodologia aplicada utilizou como fontes dados secundários de emprego junto ao CAGED e entrevistas. O diagnostico é de que existe um problema de alta rotatividade de emprego, fundamentalmente, na indústria madeireira de chapas de compensado, migrando a mão de obra, sazonalmente, para as atividades temporárias da colheita da maçã e da batata, mas, retornando, posteriormente, para a indústria. Este ciclo vicioso é avaliado pela teoria da causação circular cumulativa, de Gunnar Myrdal, a partir da qual também se apresentam sugestões para a sua quebra, de forma a convertê-lo em ciclo virtuoso. As propostas apresentadas fundamentam-se na oportunidade de construção de um planejamento participativo, conduzido pelo movimento da sociedade civil organizada, chamado Palmas Desenvolvida, e na atuação do Instituto Federal do Paraná em suas atividades de ensino, pesquisa e extensão, promovendo novas atividades econômicas propulsoras do desenvolvimento local.</p><p><strong>Código JEL</strong> | J61; O15; R38.</p>

The Strategy of Growth and Economic Development in Indonesia

Economic development became something expensive for countries retarded. Therefore, they must establish a strategy to overcome barriers that exist in the country. The purpose of this article is to give an overview of the theories and strategies in economic development so that it can be understood by the reader. Strategies to overcome obstacles and build a country's economy, among others, is the theory of low-level equilibrium trap, cumulative causation theory, the cycle of poverty, the strategy of critical minimum effort, and balanced development strategy. These strategies can actually be implemented. However, not all countries can do so because of various obstacles. It requires a long time and substantial capital expensive even for underdeveloped countries.

The causal mechanism of migration behaviors of African immigrants in Guangzhou: from the perspective of cumulative causation theory

This study tests international migration theory, especially cumulative causation theory, by looking into the causal mechanisms of international migration behavior among African immigrants in China by using the respondent-driven sampling method since African immigrants in China belong to a small hidden population. This method collected a representative sample (N = 648) from two locations in 2011. The paper reveals that the immigration behaviors of African immigrants in China from 2005 to 2011 have characteristics similar to international immigrants in initial stages - the cumulative causal effects of immigrants' social capital was continually strengthened during the reproduction of migration behavior in the sending countries. Consequently, given the sustainable economic growth and maintenance of a stable society in China, the scale of future transnational immigration (including illegal migration) will continue to expand. The paper proposes that at the present stage, existing policies should raise the entry threshold of African immigrants into China in order to mitigate the speed and scale of migrants' social class decline.

Gunnar Myrdal Revisited: Cumulative Causation, Accumulation and Legitimisation

The aim of this paper is to provide a reconstruction of Myrdal’s analysis of the factors determining the path of accumulation, in view of the pivotal role played by political institutions in promoting it. It will be shown that Myrdal’s theory of cumulative causation, combined with his idea that consensus on the existing social order is a created harmon”, is a powerful analytical tool in understanding a key contradiction of capitalist reproduction (particularly in a neo-liberal regime): namely the trade-off between accumulation and legitimisation.

Cumulative Causation, Coethnic Settlement Maturity and Mexican Immigration to U.S. Metropolitan Areas, 1995-2000

This article applies the tenets of Massey’s (1999) cumulative causation theory of migration to explain variation in aggregate patterns of Mexican migration to U.S. metropolitan destinations during the late 1990s. Analogous to sending contexts, results suggest that the dynamics of migration vary substantially with the maturity of the Mexican settlement community within destinations (approximated here using characteristics of the resident Mexican-origin population and distance from the Mexican border). The rate of immigration between 1995 and 2000 was determined overwhelmingly by the rate a decade earlier, but the extent to which this was the case depended significantly on the level of destination settlement maturity. The immigration rate into newly emerging destinations was governed to a greater extent by pull factors in the local labor and housing market (e.g., unemployment and cost of living) than in more established destinations where the rate of immigration varied largely independently of such factors. Settlement maturity played a more direct role in explaining variation in the demographic composition of new immigration flows, and was inversely related to the percentage of adult inflows comprising unaccompanied males. The results are consistent with the hypothesis recently advanced by Light (2006), asserting that migratory shifts away from traditional destinations beginning in the late 1990s were driven, at least in part, by saturation of labor and housing markets resulting from network-driven migration. Implications of the findings for related avenues of research are discussed.

Dispositions and Destinations: Refugee Agency and “Mobility Capital” in the Bengal Diaspora, 1947–2007

AbstractThis study seeks to illuminate patterns of refugee settlement in the Bengali Muslim diaspora since 1947, which replicate global trends identified by Aristide Zolberg in new nation-states. Based on historical research and oral testimony gathered from over two hundred migrants in different settings in India, Bangladesh, and Britain, it suggests why some Muslims crossed borders after India's partition and others did not; why most moved only short distances within the delta; and why so many huddled in the shadow of the new national borders and so few traveled to the West. I uncover the subtle interplay between migrants' agency and structures of coercion, and between histories of mobility and of affect, in the shaping of migration choices, and explain how the recurrent patterns identified by Zolberg were produced in a regional context of critical but unexplored significance. The essay explores the impact of nation-state formation on older forms of mobility in the region, and the continuing interconnections between local micro-mobilities and regional, national, international, and trans-oceanic migrations. I suggest that the concept of “mobility capital” can help to explain not only patterns of migration, but also patterns of staying on. I conclude by questioning “cumulative causation theory,” which has inadvertently lent credence to fears that the developed countries of the West will be “swamped” by immigrants drawn from ever-expanding migratory networks based in the “third world.”