Expansion Of Cultivated Land Research Articles

An Empirical Analysis of Global Soybean Supply Potential and China’s Diversified Import Strategies Based on Global Agro-Ecological Zones and Multi-Objective Nonlinear Programming Models

Soybeans play a crucial role in global food security and international agricultural trade. As the world’s largest consumer and trader of soybeans, China faces significant external dependence on supply and concentration of import sources. In light of increasing uncertainties in the international political and economic landscape, risks within China’s soybean supply chain have become increasingly prominent, highlighting the need to explore the global soybean supply potential and optimize import strategies. In response to national food security strategic requirements and anticipated changes in global production capacity, the Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) model and the multi-objective nonlinear programming model are used in this paper to estimate the potential of soybean yield increase globally. From dual perspectives of risk minimization and cost minimization, diversified soybean import schemes for China are proposed across three scopes: neighboring countries, countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and globally. The results indicate that in the long term, the center of gravity for global soybean production capacity remains in the Americas; these areas, along with Europe and Africa, are key regions for China to expand its soybean import sources in the future. If all countries’ soybean production potentials are fully explored, China can achieve sufficient soybean supply by relying on neighboring countries as well as those countries participating in the BRI. Specifically, it is estimated that during the 2020s (2011–2040), the potential soybean production in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina could reach more than 290 million tons, 140 million tons, and 130 million tons, respectively, under scenarios of both yield increase and cultivated land expansion. Neighboring countries such as India and Russia also show significant potential, with India’s production potentially increasing by 42.8 million tons and Russia’s by 10.4 million tons. The results suggest that China can achieve a more balanced and secure import strategy by leveraging the production capabilities of countries in the Americas, Europe, and Africa while also fostering closer economic and agricultural cooperation with neighboring nations and BRI countries. Based on these findings, policy recommendations aimed at stabilizing and ensuring China’s soybean supply are discussed.

Quantitative Assessment of the Water Stress in the Tigris–Euphrates River Basin Driven by Anthropogenic Impacts

Water stress has induced many environmental and developmental conflicts in the arid basins in the Middle East region under the context of climate change and increasing anthropogenic influence. Quantifying the anthropogenic influence on water stress at the basin scale is very challenging because of insufficient anthropogenic-related spatial data. Given that climate change is a global impact that is hard to mitigate at the basin scale, quantifying anthropogenic influence is practical to inform strategies for alleviating regional water stress. Thus, this study attempts to quantify the contribution of potential anthropogenic factors driving the water stress in the Tigris–Euphrates river basin (TERB) using pure spatial data. The water stress level in the studied basin was evaluated via the water stress index (WSI), which can be obtained as the ratio of water demand to water availability, from the Aqueduct 4.0 dataset. The driving contributions of social development (population, POP; fine particulate matter, PM2.5), economic development (gross domestic product, GDP; electricity consumption, EC), and landscape modification (urban expansion index, UEI; cultivated land expansion index, CEI) factors were quantitatively evaluated based on a spatial statistical geographical detector model (GDM). Assessment showed that nearly 66.13% of the TERB area was under severe water stress, particularly in Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. The q statistic of the GDM, adopted to quantify the contribution of driving factors, revealed that CEI (0.174), EC (0.145), and GDP (0.123) were the dominant factors driving water stress. These individual influences were further enhanced particularly in the interaction between economic development and landscape modification factors such as UEI and CEI (0.566), PM2.5 and UEI (0.350), EC and CEI (0.346), GDP and CEI (0.323), and PM2.5 and GDP (0.312). The findings of this research can provide some beneficial references to alleviate the TERB’s water stress for its future sustainable development.

Impact of climate change and land use/cover change on water yield in the Liaohe River Basin, Northeast China

The Liaohe River Basin (LRB) in Northeast China, a critical agricultural and industrial zone, has faced escalating water resource pressures in recent decades due to rapid urbanization, intensified land use changes, and climate variability. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of water yield and its driving factors is essential for sustainable water resource management in this ecologically sensitive region. This study employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of water yield in the LRB (dividing into six sub-basins from east to west: East Liaohe River Basin (ELRB), Taizi River Basin (TRB), Middle Liaohe River Basin (MLRB), West Liaohe River Basin (WLRB), Xinkai River Basin (XRB), and Wulijimuren River Basin (WRB)) from 1993 to 2022, with a focus on the impacts of climate change and land use cover change (LUCC). Results revealed that the LRB had an average annual precipitation of 483.15 mm, with an average annual water yield of 247.54 mm, both showing significant upward trend over the 30-a period. Spatially, water yield demonstrated significant heterogeneity, with higher values in southeastern sub-basins and lower values in northwestern sub-basins. The TRB exhibited the highest water yield due to abundant precipitation and favorable topography, while the WRB recorded the lowest water yield owing to arid conditions and sparse vegetation. Precipitation played a significant role in shaping the annual fluctuations and total volume of water yield, with its variability exerting substantially greater impacts than actual evapotranspiration (AET) and LUCC. However, LUCC, particularly cultivated land expansion and grassland reduction, significantly reshaped the spatial distribution of water yield by modifying surface runoff and infiltration patterns. This study provides critical insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of water yield in the LRB, emphasizing the synergistic effects of climate change and land use change, which are pivotal for optimizing water resource management and advancing regional ecological conservation.

Impact of Land Use Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Service Values: Implication for Landscape Management

Abstract Globally growing human activity has had an enormous effect on natural ecosystems and the services they provide. Estimating the effects of land use and land cover (LULC) on ecosystem service values (ESVs) is crucial for determining how land use changes affect human well-being. To ensure long-term sustainability of the ecosystems, considering the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services, tracking changes in ecosystem services, and implementing effective land use planning and conservation strategies, we can ensure the long-term sustainability. This study aimed to find out how ESV in the Borkena watershed of the Awash basin was impacted by LULC changes during the last three decades (1993–2023). The study quantifies the spatiotemporal variation of ESV of the Borkena watershed in relation with LULC changes. Six LULC types were identified using supervised image classification following maximum likelihood method in ArcGIS 10.8 environment. The ESV was estimated following benefit transfer methods based on the coefficients published by Costanza and his team in 2014. The results demonstrated that between 1993 and 2023, there was a continuous increase in the amount of land under cultivation and built-up area, as well as a decrease in the amount of forest and shrub land. The study shown that the significant expansion of cultivated land and built-up area and decreasing of forest and shrub land cover during 1993-2023 periods, has reduced the total ESV from US$ 640.74 in 1993 to US $603.52 in 2003 and US $607.05 in 2013 and US $625.45 in 2023. It is urgently necessary to take action to improve the sustainability of ecosystem service value at the landscape level with proper land management methods in light of the decline in both the total and individual ESV in the study area and period. The results of this study could be useful to raise public awareness of the state of ESV, landscape management and support policy-making processes.

Dynamics in Land Cover and Landscape Patterns of Myanmar: A Three-Decade Perspective (1990–2020)

A comprehensive scientific assessment of the dynamic changes in land cover and landscape patterns in Myanmar, considering both human activities and natural factors such as climate change, is essential for a thorough understanding of the transformations in the country’s ecological environment. This assessment also provides data-driven insights into the complex interactions between humans, climate, and the environment. This study aims to examine the dynamic changes in land cover in Myanmar over a thirty-year period from a comprehensive perspective. This paper, based on the MLC30 land cover dataset for Myanmar from 1990 to 2020, employs land use dynamic degree and land use transition matrix to analyze the extent and process of land cover changes in Myanmar. Furthermore, using landscape pattern indicators, the paper explores the changes in the spatial structural characteristics of land cover in Myanmar at both the patch scale and the landscape scale. The results indicate the following: (a) Areas with significant land cover changes are primarily located in the eastern, southeastern, and southwestern regions bordering China, Laos, and Thailand, as well as the coastal areas, with the change intensity from 2000 to 2020 being notably higher than before 2000. (b) Myanmar’s cultivated land, artificial surfaces, and water bodies show an expanding trend, with cultivated land expansion mainly at the expense of forests, while the increase in artificial surfaces and water bodies is through the conversion of the existing cultivated land. (c) Myanmar’s landscape patterns remained stable from 1990 to 2000. However, after 2000, the land cover has shown a clear trend towards fragmentation and spatial distribution dispersion, especially for the dominant forest and cultivated land types. Despite Myanmar’s rapid economic development, the trend toward the fragmentation and irregularization of cultivated land patches indicates a lack of attention to cultivated land use and planning. The reduction and fragmentation of forest areas have led to a decline in ecological connectivity, posing risks of ecological environment deterioration. Consequently, Myanmar must prioritize scientific land use planning and the rational allocation of land resources to foster the sustainable development of agriculture and the protection of natural ecosystems.

Is seed aid distribution still justified in South Sudan?

Is seed aid distribution still justified in South Sudan?

Land use & land cover dynamics and its relationship with nitrate pollution in groundwater around inactive mine areas using geospatial techniques, SW part of Cuddapah basin, Southern India

Land use & land cover dynamics and its relationship with nitrate pollution in groundwater around inactive mine areas using geospatial techniques, SW part of Cuddapah basin, Southern India

Analyzing the impacts of watershed management interventions and scenarios on soil erosion reduction using InVEST model in Yezat watershed, North West Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Land degradation is a serious problem for Ethiopia's productive capacity for land resources. To reverse these environmental dynamics, slow down soil degradation, and raise smallholder farmers’ agricultural yields, watershed management interventions have been implemented in Ethiopia since the 1980s. Thus, this study was aimed at assessing the effects of watershed management interventions on soil erosion reduction by using the InVEST model in the Yezat watershed, north-west Ethiopia. The modified ecosystem services valuation model (InVEST) was employed to evaluate soil loss reduction in response to watershed management interventions. Different watershed management intervention scenarios (baseline scenarios, afforestation scenarios, soil/stone bund scenarios, and integrated scenarios) were also applied to evaluate the effectiveness of watershed management interventions on soil loss reduction. The result of the study indicated that a high amount of mean annual soil loss (111 tons ha− 1 year−1) was observed in 2000 in the study area due to the expansion of cultivated land and built-up area at the expense of forest, shrubland, and grassland. However, the mean annual soil loss decreased from 111 tons per year in 2000 to 79 tons per year in 2021 in the study area due to different watershed management interventions. Additionally, at the baseline scenario, the estimated mean annual soil loss of the watershed was 111 tons ha-1 yr-1. Conversely, it was reduced to 49.3 ton ha-1 yr-1 in the reforestation scenario, 16.49 ton ha-1 yr-1 in the soil bund scenario, and 8.26 ton ha-1 yr-1 in the integrated scenario. The watershed covered by the very severe soil erosion severity class was reduced in all watershed management intervention scenarios. Among others, the highest soil erosion reduction was observed in the integrated (bio-physical) scenarios of watershed management interventions. Therefore, watershed management interventions and scenarios were the best mechanisms for soil loss reduction.

Analyzing the impacts of watershed management interventions and scenarios on sediment export reduction in yezat watershed, north west Ethiopia using InVEST model

ABSTRACT This study aimed at assessing the long term impacts of watershed management interventions and scenarios on sediment export reduction in the data-scarce region of the Yezat watershed in north-west Ethiopia. The modified ecosystem services valuation model (InVEST) was employed to evaluate the amount of sediment export in the watershed. Different watershed management intervention scenarios were applied to evaluate the effectiveness of watershed management interventions on sediment export reduction. The results of the study showed that the mean annual sediment yield was 35 tons ha yr in 20000, due to the expansion of cultivated land and built-up area. Conversely, it decreased from 35 ton ha yr in 2000 -18.4 ton ha yr in 2021 due to watershed management interventions. On the contrary, moderate, severe, and very severe categories of sediment export intensity were high in 2000. But it decreased in 2021 due to watershed management interventions. The mean annual sediment export in the baseline scenario (BS) was 35 tons per year, which was reduced to 13.39 tons per year, 3.46 tons per year, and 1.17 tons per year in the reforestation scenario, soil/stone bund, and integrated scenarios, respectively. The result revealed that areas covered by high sediment severity classes were reduced.

Spatial variation characteristics and influencing factors of sediment connectivity in the black soil region of northeast China

Spatial variation characteristics and influencing factors of sediment connectivity in the black soil region of northeast China

Dynamic evolution and simulation of habitat quality in arid regions: A case study of the Hexi region, China

Dynamic evolution and simulation of habitat quality in arid regions: A case study of the Hexi region, China

Climate change and crop production nexus: assessing the role of technological development for sustainable agriculture in Vietnam

PurposeThis study aims to examine the effects of climate change and agricultural technologies on crop production in Vietnam for the period 1990–2018.Design/methodology/approachSeveral econometric techniques – such as the augmented Dickey–Fuller, Phillips–Perron, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, variance decomposition method (VDM) and impulse response function (IRF) are used for the empirical analysis.FindingsThe results of the ARDL bounds test confirm the significant dynamic relationship among the variables under consideration, with a significance level of 1%. The primary findings indicate that the average annual temperature exerts a negative influence on crop yield, both in the short term and in the long term. The utilization of fertilizer has been found to augment crop productivity, whereas the application of pesticides has demonstrated the potential to raise crop production in the short term. Moreover, both the expansion of cultivated land and the utilization of energy resources have played significant roles in enhancing agricultural output across both in the short term and in the long term. Furthermore, the robustness outcomes also validate the statistical importance of the factors examined in the context of Vietnam.Research limitations/implicationsThis study provides persuasive evidence for policymakers to emphasize advancements in intensive agriculture as a means to mitigate the impacts of climate change. In the research, the authors use average annual temperature as a surrogate measure for climate change, while using fertilizer and pesticide usage as surrogate indicators for agricultural technologies. Future research can concentrate on the impact of ICT, climate change (specifically pertaining to maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation), and agricultural technological improvements that have an impact on cereal production.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine how climate change and technology effect crop output in Vietnam from 1990 to 2018. Various econometrics tools, such as ARDL modeling, VDM and IRF, are used for estimation.

Estimation of ecosystem water consumption and the suitable scale of cultivated land in the Karamay region and Muzat River basin based on the optimized SEBAL energy balance model and water resource constraint model

estimation of ecosystem water consumption and the suitable scale of cultivated land in the Karamay region and Muzat River basin based on the optimized SEBAL energy balance model and water resource constraint model

Projections of Land Use Change and Water Supply–Demand Assessment Based on Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Case Study of Guizhou Province, China

Land use change and water supply–demand assessment are critical to achieving regional sustainable development and improving human wellbeing. In the context of complex climate change and socioeconomic development, there is an urgent need for systematic assessment and forecasting studies on how to combine physical, geographical, and socioeconomic factors to clarify patterns of change in the land use change and water supply–demand, as well as to respond appropriately to different climate and socioeconomic development scenarios in the future. Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios, a framework for simulating future land use change and assessing water supply–demand in the coupled SD-PLUS-InVEST model was constructed. The land use change in Guizhou Province from 2020 to 2050 was simulated using the SD-PLUS model, and the water supply–demand conditions were projected for 2030, 2040, and 2050 under multiple scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The research results indicated that (1) The land use change in the study area has significant spatial heterogeneity. It showed similar trends in the land use change in the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, with both artificial surfaces and forest showing an expansion trend, but the expansion of forest was most typical in the southwestern region in the SSP126 scenario, and there is a significant increase in the northeastern region in the SSP245 scenario. Additionally, there is a rapid expansion of artificial surfaces in the central region in the SSP585 scenario, and a more rapid expansion of cultivated land in the southeastern region, with a significant increase in the area of water bodies. (2) The changes in water supply from 2020 to 2050 under the three scenarios show a smaller increase (5.22–11.88%), a significant increase in water demand (29.45–58.84%), and an increase in the area of water shortage by about 2708.94–9084.40 km2, with the extent of the shortage increasing by about 23.71–79.50%. (3) According to the results of the SSP-RCP scenario projections, socioeconomic development has a significant impact on the growth of water demand, and climate and land use change may exacerbate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of water supply–demand in the karst region. The systematic study of land use change and water supply–demand in Guizhou can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable management of regional ecosystems and the rational allocation of land and water resources.

The Relationship between the Carbon Fixation Capacity of Vegetation and Cultivated Land Expansion and Its Driving Factors in an Oasis in the Arid Region of Xinjiang, China

In the process of agricultural development in arid and semi-arid areas, the carbon fixation capacity of vegetation can be affected to different degrees, but research on its driving factors is lacking. Consequently, this paper focuses on the Weiku Oasis in Xinjiang as its research area, in which the carbon fixation capacity of vegetation is estimated with the chemical equation of a photochemical reaction, using methods such as linear system models and Geodetector to analyze the relationship between cropland expansion characteristics and the carbon fixation capacity of vegetation from 1990 to 2020. The influence of land-use changes on the space differentiation of carbon fixation was elucidated through a time series relationship, and the synergistic effects of nine influencing factors on the carbon fixation capacity during the process of vegetation changes were discussed. The results were as follows: (1) In the process of agricultural development, the proportions of cultivated land area and spatial agglomeration had significant negative correlations with carbon sequestration, and the significance was rising, but the effect of cultivated land area proportion was more significant. (2) Through temporal sequential cooperativity analysis, when other land-use types were converted into cultivated land, the carbon fixation capacity of vegetation suddenly and significantly decreased in the initial year of the transformation, but the effect of cultivated land reclamation on the carbon fixation capacity of vegetation did not have a significant time lag. Moreover, after a certain period of time, cultivated land can gradually recover part of its lost carbon fixation capacity. (3) Among the nine driving factors, potential evapotranspiration is the most prominent in explaining the carbon fixation capacity of vegetation. This single-factor pairwise interaction presents the relationship between bivariate enhancement and nonlinear enhancement. When terrain factors interact with other factors, the enhancement effect of the influence on the carbon fixation capacity of vegetation has an obvious promotion effect. However, the change in the carbon fixation capacity of vegetation is more significantly influenced by potential evapotranspiration and the interaction between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and other factors. This research is helpful to understanding the basic theories related to the change in the carbon fixation capacity of vegetation during the process of agricultural development in arid and semi-arid areas, as well as providing theoretical reference for ecological environment construction and sustainable development.

Spatial-temporal changes of landscape and habitat quality in typical ecologically fragile areas of western China over the past 40 years: A case study of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.

In this paper, we use the InVEST model and five periods of land use data from 1980 to 2020 to assess the habitat quality of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in Western China, which has characteristics of a typical fragile ecosystem. We further analyse the spatial and temporal characteristics of habitat quality evolution and its relationship with land use and landscape pattern indices to explore the close relationship between regional habitat quality changes and human natural resource conservation and utilization. The research results show that the overall habitat quality of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region was stable and at a moderate level (0.57-0.60) during the 40 years from 1980 to 2020; Habitat patches (2020) with low (24.89%), high (22.45%) and very high (29.81%) quality occupy a larger proportion of the area, followed by very low (13.31%) and moderate levels (9.54%). Over the past 40 years, there have been 275 sample sites in Ningxia where habitat quality has deteriorated, 1593 sample sites where the habitat quality has remained stable, and 184 sample sites where the habitat quality has increased. From 1980 to 2020, the Mean Patch Area of landscape types in Ningxia decreased by 25.9 hm2. The Patch Density increased by 0.06 /hm2. The Largest Patch Index decreased by 15.69%. The Edge Density increased by 2.5 m/hm2. The Contagion Index decreased by 2.99%. The Area-Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension remained basically unchanged (0.01). The Landscape Shape Index showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, increasing by 13.94. The Area-Weighted Mean Shape Index has been reduced by 9.45. The Shannon Diversity Index and Shannon Evenness Index both show an increasing trend, but the amplitude is relatively small, with 0.09 and 0.04, respectively. There was a significant spatial aggregation of high and low habitat quality in Ningxia, with high values usually distributed in the northern and southern areas with good natural conditions and low values distributed in areas with frequent human activities and poor natural conditions. The decrease in habitat quality in Ningxia was mainly due to the expansion of cultivated land and construction land, the increase in landscape fragmentation and the resulting decrease in connectivity. On the other hand, due to the implementation of ecological protection measures, such as the project of returning farmland to pasture and grass to forest, the quality of habitats in Ningxia increased. The conclusions of this study support the idea that the conservation of habitat quality in ecologically fragile areas should fully preserve the original natural habitats and reduce the interference of human activities to increase the habitat suitability of the landscape and the habitat connectivity between patches. At the same time, targeted ecological protection policies should be developed to restore the areas where the habitat quality has been damaged and ultimately maintain the stability of biodiversity and ecosystems in ecologically fragile areas. Meanwhile, for ecologically fragile areas with similar ecological characteristics to those of Ningxia, our research supports the idea of increasing the protection of the stability of the original habitats, increasing the proportion of ecological restoration projects, financial investment and seeking cooperation with local community managers and residents will help to improve the quality of the regional habitats and the enrichment of the biodiversity, and ultimately promote the harmonious coexistence of human beings and nature in the modernized sense of the word.

Landscape ecological risk assessment study of the Yunnan section of the Tropic of Cancer

Landscape ecological risk assessment study of the Yunnan section of the Tropic of Cancer

Identification and characteristic analysis of semi-natural habitats in China's economically developed areas: New insights to inform cultivated land system ecological conservation

Identification and characteristic analysis of semi-natural habitats in China's economically developed areas: New insights to inform cultivated land system ecological conservation

Thriving arid oasis urban agglomerations: Optimizing ecosystem services pattern under future climate change scenarios using dynamic Bayesian network

Thriving arid oasis urban agglomerations: Optimizing ecosystem services pattern under future climate change scenarios using dynamic Bayesian network

Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution of the Ecological Landscape and Construction of an Ecological Network: A Case Study of Hebei Province

Research on the establishment of a regional ecological network can provide a scientific basis and valuable guidance for the protection of regional animals and plants, water conservation, sustainable resource utilization, and optimization of land use patterns. This study investigated the impacts of land use changes on the ecological security pattern using morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model, and the analysis of spatiotemporal changes and fragmentation of land use types. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the dominant trend in land use types was the expansion of cultivated land, grass land, and wood land. Although the proportion of cultivated land was the largest and was concentrated in the southern part of Hebei Province, the total area of cultivated land showed a decline. Landscape index calculations revealed an increase in fragmentation of the overall landscape ecological patches, while the spatial and quantitative distribution of landscape types gradually became more uniform. Furthermore, 52 patches with the highest landscape index were identified as ecological sources, mainly located in northern Hebei Province in 2020. MSPA calculations showed that elevation, slope, and land use type contributed significantly to the comprehensive resistance surface. Using the MCR model, an ecological network for Hebei Province was constructed, consisting of 114 ecological corridors and 28 ecological nodes. The ecological corridors exhibited a distribution pattern of high density in the north and low density in the south, while the ecological nodes enhanced overall ecological connectivity in the region. Based on the current ecological environment, it is recommended to increase the number of ecological corridors and ecological nodes to enhance ecosystem stability.