CSIRO-Mk3.0 Research Articles

Climate suitability modeling for Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae): current and future invasion risk analysis.

The Caribbean fruit fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Lower, 1862) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a pest of significant economic importance in Central America and Florida (USA). This study was carried out to examine the influence of climate change on the space-time distribution of A. suspensa on temporal and spatial scales. The CLIMEX software was used to model the current distribution and for climate change. The future distribution was performed using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under the emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B for the years 2050, 2080, and 2100. The results indicate a low potential for global distribution of A. suspensa in all scenarios studied. However, tropical areas were identified with high climatic suitability for A. suspensa in South America, Central America, Africa, and Oceania until the end of the century. Projections of areas with climatic suitability for A. suspensa can provide helpful information to develop preventive strategies of phytosanitary management avoiding economic impacts with the introduction of the species.

Potential Distribution of and Sensitivity Analysis for Urochloa panicoides Weed Using Modeling: An Implication of Invasion Risk Analysis for China and Europe.

Urochloapanicoides P. Beauv. is considered one of the most harmful weeds in the United States and Australia. It is invasive in Pakistan, Mexico, and Brazil, but its occurrence is hardly reported in China and European countries. Species distribution models enable the measurement of the impact of climate change on plant growth, allowing for risk analysis, effective management, and invasion prevention. The objective of this study was to develop current and future climate models of suitable locations for U. panicoides and to determine the most influential climatic parameters. Occurrence data and biological information on U. panicoides were collected, and climatic parameters were used to generate the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) and to perform sensitivity analysis. The future projections for 2050, 2080, and 2100 were modeled under the A2 SRES scenario using the Global Climate Model, CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS). The potential distribution of U. panicoides coincided with the data collected, and the reliability of the final model was demonstrated. The generated model identified regions where the occurrence was favorable, despite few records of the species. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most sensitive parameters of the model were related to temperature, humidity, and cold stress. Future projections predict reductions in climate suitability for U. panicoides in Brazil, Australia, India, and Africa, and an increase in suitability in Mexico, the United States, European countries, and China. The rise in suitability of China and Europe is attributed to predicted climate change, including reduction in cold stress. From the results obtained, preventive management strategies can be formulated against the spread of U. panicoides, avoiding economic and biodiversity losses.

Effects of climate change on economic feasibility of future date palm production: An integrated assessment in Iran

ABSTRACTThis study set out to build a model identifying areas where a positive Net Present Value (NPV) could be obtained from date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) using CLIMEX and six parameters including (a) suitable soil taxonomy and physicochemical soil properties, (b) slopes of less than 10°, (c) land uses suitable for date palm cultivation, (d) availability of roads, (e) availability of water, and (f) low risk of the lethal disease caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. spp. in the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 in Iran. Here, we utilized the A2 scenario and two global climate models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). Economic feasibility was estimated based on the assumption that the decision to plant date palms by landholders is motivated by a desire to maximize their return to land. Our results indicate that only 5450 km2 of southern Iran will be highly profitable for cultivation of date palm, with NPV > 10,000, while profitable (with NPV between 4200 and 10,000) and moderately profitable (with NPV between 0 and 4200) areas would cover only 500 and 50 km2, respectively, in future. A comparison of mean outputs from the two chosen GCMs and those of the economic and CLIMEX output combination indicates that only about 0.01% of areas from both GCMs will be highly economically viable for cultivation of date palm. In this study we ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication.

Variances in the projections, resulting from CLIMEX, Boosted Regression Trees and Random Forests techniques

The aim of this study was to have a comparative investigation and evaluation of the capabilities of correlative and mechanistic modeling processes, applied to the projection of future distributions of date palm in novel environments and to establish a method of minimizing uncertainty in the projections of differing techniques. The location of this study on a global scale is in Middle Eastern Countries. We compared the mechanistic model CLIMEX (CL) with the correlative models MaxEnt (MX), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), and Random Forests (RF) to project current and future distributions of date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.). The Global Climate Model (GCM), the CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) using the A2 emissions scenario, was selected for making projections. Both indigenous and alien distribution data of the species were utilized in the modeling process. The common areas predicted by MX, BRT, RF, and CL from the CS GCM were extracted and compared to ascertain projection uncertainty levels of each individual technique. The common areas identified by all four modeling techniques were used to produce a map indicating suitable and unsuitable areas for date palm cultivation for Middle Eastern countries, for the present and the year 2100. The four different modeling approaches predict fairly different distributions. Projections from CL were more conservative than from MX. The BRT and RF were the most conservative methods in terms of projections for the current time. The combination of the final CL and MX projections for the present and 2100 provide higher certainty concerning those areas that will become highly suitable for future date palm cultivation. According to the four models, cold, hot, and wet stress, with differences on a regional basis, appears to be the major restrictions on future date palm distribution. The results demonstrate variances in the projections, resulting from different techniques. The assessment and interpretation of model projections requires reservations, especially in correlative models such as MX, BRT, and RF. Intersections between different techniques may decrease uncertainty in future distribution projections. However, readers should not miss the fact that the uncertainties are mostly because the future GHG emission scenarios are unknowable with sufficient precision. Suggestions towards methodology and processing for improving projections are included.

Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX

The sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for E. integriceps is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress. Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

A modelling implementation of climate change on biodegradation of Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) by Aspergillus niger in soil

Aim: To model the areas becoming and remaining highly suitable for Aspergillus niger growth over the next ninety years by future climate alteration, in relation to the species’ potential enhancement of Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE) biodegradation in soil.Location: Global scaleMethods: Projections of A. niger growth suitability for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100 were made using the A2 emissions scenario together with two Global Climate Models (GCMs): the CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) model and the MIROC-H (MR) model through CLIMEX software. Subsequently the outputs of the two GCMs were overlaid to extract common areas in each period of time, providing higher certainty concerning areas which will become highly suitable to A. niger in the future. Afterwards, GIS software was employed to extract sustainable regions for this species growth from present time up to 2100.Results: Central and eastern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Brazil, eastern United States, southern France, northern Spain, central and southern Italy, southern Hungary, eastern Albania, south western Russia, central and eastern China, eastern Australia, south east of South Africa, central Zambia, Rwanda, Burundi, central Kenya, central Ethiopia and north eastern Oman will be highly suitable for A. niger growth from present time up to 2100.Main conclusions: Accurately evaluating the impact of landfilling on land use and predicting future climate are vital components for effective long-term planning of waste management. From a social and economic perspective, utilization of our mapped projections to detect suitable regions for establishing landfills in areas highly sustainable for microorganisms like A. niger growth will allow a significant cost reduction and improve the performance of biodegradation of LDPE over a long period of time, through making use of natural climatic and environmental factors.

DISTRIBUTION OF DATE PALMS IN THE MIDDLE EAST BASED ON FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS

SUMMARYOne consequence of climate change is change in the phenology and distribution of plants, including the date palm (Phoenix dactyliferaL.). Date palm, as a crop specifically adapted to arid conditions in desert oases and to very high temperatures, may be dramatically affected by climate changes. Some areas that are climatically suitable for date palm growth at the present time will become climatically unsuitable in the future, while other areas that are unsuitable under current climate will become suitable in the future. This study used CLIMEX to estimate potential date palm distribution under current and future climate scenarios using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). The results of this study indicated that Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran are most affected countries as a result of climate change. In Saudi Arabia, 129 million ha (68%) of currently suitable area is projected to become unsuitable by 2100. However, this is based on climate modelling alone. The actual decrease in area may be much smaller when abiotic and other factors are taken into account. On the other hand, 13 million ha (33%) of currently unsuitable area is projected to become suitable by 2100 in Iran. Additionally, by 2050, Israel, Jordan and western Syria will become climatically more suitable. Cold and heat stresses will play a significant role in date palm distribution in the future. These results can inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations to identify areas for cultivation of this profitable crop in the future, and to address those areas that will need greater attention because they are becoming marginal regions for date palm cultivation.

Future distributions of Fusarium oxysporum f. spp. in European, Middle Eastern and North African agricultural regions under climate change

The levels of inaccuracy in projections of global climate model outputs can be reduced by identification of the correlations between the output results of a number of models, which include common assumptions. Some of the invasive pathogen of Fusarium oxysporum f. spp. pose risks to a number of cash crops such as banana, tomato, palm and garlic while some have a symbiotic relation varying from pathogenic to commensal (null effect), up to beneficial effect. Limitation of occurrence records of many single species such as F. oxysporum f. sp. cubense, F. oxysporum f. sp. albedinis, F. oxysporum f. sp. lycopersici and F. oxysporum f. sp. vasinfectum necessitated this study to model the future distribution of F. oxysporum f. spp. rather than individual species. The future distribution of F. oxysporum f. spp. was modeled by CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR) GCMs, and the results were correlated to identify areas suitable for F. oxysporum f. spp. growth for North Africa, Middle Eastern and European countries for the years 2050 and 2100. The projections established that a number of countries will become highly conducive to this fungus, while others are projected to produce marginal levels of conduciveness by 2050 and 2100. We also demonstrate that refining CLIMEX outputs with a combination of a number of alternative GCMs results ensures that modeled projections become more robust, rather than producing purely hypothetical findings.

Projecting date palm distribution in Iran under climate change using topography, physicochemical soil properties, soil taxonomy, land use, and climate data

This study set out to model potential date palm distribution under current and future climate scenarios using an emission scenario, in conjunction with two different global climate models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS), and MIROC-H (MR), and to refine results based on suitability under four nonclimatic parameters. Areas containing suitable physicochemical soil properties and suitable soil taxonomy, together with land slopes of less than 10° and suitable land uses for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) were selected as appropriate refining tools to ensure the CLIMEX results were accurate and robust. Results showed that large regions of Iran are projected as likely to become climatically suitable for date palm cultivation based on the projected scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The study also showed CLIMEX outputs merit refinement by nonclimatic parameters and that the incremental introduction of each additional parameter decreased the disagreement between GCMs. Furthermore, the study indicated that the least amount of disagreement in terms of areas conducive to date palm cultivation resulted from CS and MR GCMs when the locations of suitable physicochemical soil properties and soil taxonomy were used as refinement tools.

Risk Levels of Invasive Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. in Areas Suitable for Date Palm (Phoenix dactylifera) Cultivation under Various Climate Change Projections

Global climate model outputs involve uncertainties in prediction, which could be reduced by identifying agreements between the output results of different models, covering all assumptions included in each. Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. is an invasive pathogen that poses risk to date palm cultivation, among other crops. Therefore, in this study, the future distribution of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., confirmed by CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR) GCMs, was modeled and combined with the future distribution of date palm predicted by the same GCMs, to identify areas suitable for date palm cultivation with different risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. Results showed that 40%, 37%, 33% and 28% areas projected to become highly conducive to date palm are under high risk of its lethal fungus, compared with 37%, 39%, 43% and 42% under low risk, for the chosen years respectively. Our study also indicates that areas with marginal risk will be limited to 231, 212, 186 and 172 million hectares by 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. The study further demonstrates that CLIMEX outputs refined by a combination of different GCMs results of different species that have symbiosis or parasite relationship, ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication.

Suitable regions for date palm cultivation in Iran are predicted to increase substantially under future climate change scenarios

SUMMARYThe objective of the present paper is to use CLIMEX software to project how climate change might impact the future distribution of date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) in Iran. Although the outputs of this software are only based on the response of a species to climate, the CLIMEX results were refined in the present study using two non-climatic parameters: (a) the location of soils containing suitable physicochemical properties and (b) the spatial distribution of soil types having suitable soil taxonomy for dates, as unsuitable soil types impose problems in air permeability, hydraulic conductivity and root development. Here, two different Global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), were employed with the A2 emission scenario to model the potential date palm distribution under current and future climates in Iran for the years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. The results showed that only c. 0·30 of the area identified as suitable by CLIMEX will actually be suitable for date palm cultivation: the rest of the area comprises soil types that are not favourable for date palm cultivation. Moreover, the refined outputs indicate that the total area suitable for date palm cultivation will increase to 31·3 million ha by 2100, compared with 4·8 million ha for current date palm cultivation. The present results also indicate that only heat stress will have an impact on date palm distribution in Iran by 2100, with the areas currently impacted by cold stress diminishing by 2100.

Assessment of uncertainty in river flow projections for the Mekong River using multiple GCMs and hydrological models

Summary Hydrological model-related uncertainty is often ignored within climate change hydrological impact assessments. A MIKE SHE model is developed for the Mekong using the same data as an earlier semi-distributed, conceptual model (SLURP). The model is calibrated and validated using discharge at 12 gauging stations. Two sets of climate change scenarios are investigated. The first is based on a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature (the hypothesised threshold of ‘dangerous’ climate change), as simulated by seven GCMs. There are considerable differences in scenario discharge between GCMs, ranging from catchment-wide increases in mean discharge (up to 12.7%; CCCMA CGCM31, NCAR CCSM30), decreases (up to 21.6% in the upper catchments; CSIRO Mk30, IPSL CM4), and spatially varying responses (UKMO HadCM3 and HadGEM1, MPI ECHAM5). Inter-GCM differences are largely driven by differences in precipitation. The second scenario set (HadCM3, increases in global mean temperature of 1–6 °C) shows consistently greater discharge (maximum: 28.7%) in the upper catchment as global temperature increases, primarily due to increasing precipitation. Further downstream, discharge is strongly influenced by increasing PET, which outweighs impacts of elevated upstream precipitation and causes consistent discharge reductions for higher temperatures (maximum: −5.3% for the main Mekong). MIKE SHE results for all scenarios are compared with those from the SLURP catchment model and the Mac-PDM.09 global hydrological model. Although hydrological model-related uncertainty is evident, its magnitude is smaller than that associated with choice of GCM. In most cases, the three hydrological models simulate the same direction of change in mean discharge. Mac-PDM.09 simulates the largest discharge increases when they occur, which is responsible for some differences in direction of change at downstream gauging stations for some scenarios, especially HadCM3. Inter-hydrological model differences are likely attributed to alternative model structures, process representations and PET methods (Linacre for MIKE SHE and SLURP, Penman–Monteith for Mac-PDM.09).

Climate change will lead to larger areas of Spain being conducive to date palm cultivation

One consequence of climate change is the change in the phenology and distribution of plants. The unique and distinctive date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) in Spain may be negatively or positively affected by climate change; particularly if favourable climate conditions shift to other areas. Effective management of such an economically important crop necessitates knowledge of their potential distribution under current and future climate. This study utilised CLIMEX to model the potential date palm distribution under current and future climate scenarios using one emission scenario (A2) with two different Global Climate Models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). In Spain, large areas are projected to become more climatically suitable for date palm growth by 2100. However, the results from the CS and MR GCMs show disagreements, especially from 2070 to 2100. The MR GCM projected that approximately 33.8 million hectares in Spain may become suitable for date palm growth, while the CS GCM showed approximately 28.12 million hectares by 2100. In other words, the MR model projected more areas may become climatically suitable for date palm cultivation compared with the CS model. Our results indicate that cold and wet stresses will play a significant role in date palm distribution in some Central and Northern regions of Spain by 2100. These results can inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organisations to identify areas for cultivation of this profitable crop in the future and to address those areas that will need greater attention, because they are becoming marginal regions for date palm cultivation.

Use of CLIMEX, Land use and Topography to Refine Areas Suitable for Date Palm Cultivation in Spain under Climate Change Scenarios

In this study, CLIMEX modeling software was used to develop a model of the potential distribution of P. dactylifera under current and various future climate scenarios for Spain. CLIMEX parameters were adjusted depending on satisfactory agreement between the potential and known distribution of P. dactylifera in northern African countries, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Iran. The potential date palm distribution was modeled under current and future climate scenarios using one emission scenario (A2) with two different Global Climate Models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). The CLIMEX outputs were then refined by land use types and areas less than 10AŒÂS slope, since sloping areas impose problems in hydraulic conductivity and root development. The refined results indicated that large areas in Spain are projected to become climatically more suitable for date palm growth by 2100. However, the results from the CS and MR GCMs show some disagreements. The refined MR GCM projected that approximately 22.86 million hectares in Spain may become suitable for date palm growth, while the CS GCM showed approximately 18.72 million hectares by 2100. The refined results showed that only about 65% of CLIMEX results are suitable for date palm cultivations while the rest of the areas are unsuitable due to the unsuitability of land uses and slope. Our results indicated that cold and wet stresses will play a significant role in date palm distribution in some central and northern regions of Spain by 2100.

Climate change impacts on the future distribution of date palms: a modeling exercise using CLIMEX.

Climate is changing and, as a consequence, some areas that are climatically suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) cultivation at the present time will become unsuitable in the future. In contrast, some areas that are unsuitable under the current climate will become suitable in the future. Consequently, countries that are dependent on date fruit export will experience economic decline, while other countries’ economies could improve. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this economically important crop under current and future climate scenarios will be useful in planning better strategies to manage such issues. This study used CLIMEX to estimate potential date palm distribution under current and future climate models by using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). The results indicate that in North Africa, many areas with a suitable climate for this species are projected to become climatically unsuitable by 2100. In North and South America, locations such as south-eastern Bolivia and northern Venezuela will become climatically more suitable. By 2070, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and western Iran are projected to have a reduction in climate suitability. The results indicate that cold and dry stresses will play an important role in date palm distribution in the future. These results can inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying new areas in which to cultivate this economically important crop in the future and those areas that will need greater attention due to becoming marginal regions for continued date palm cultivation.

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on streamflow inBeRiverCatchment,Vietnam

AbstractThis paper focuses on the uncertainty in climate change impacts on streamflow inBeRiverCatchment. Uncertainty associated withGCMstructure from a subset ofCMIP3 (CCCMA CGCM3.1,CSIRO Mk30,IPSL CM4,MPI ECHAM5,NCAR CCSM3.0,UKMO HadGEM1, andUKMO HadCM3),SRESemission scenarios (A1B,A2,B1, andB2), and prescribed increases in global mean temperature (0.5°C to 6°C) usingSWATmodel is investigated. For prescribed warming scenarios usingHadCM3, linear decreases in mean annual streamflow range from 3.1 to 16.7%. Differences in projected annual streamflow betweenSRESemission scenarios usingHadCM3 are small (−5.6% to −4.6%). Under theA1Bscenario and 2°C increase in global mean temperature using sevenGCMs, there is substantial disparity, by −2.9–25.5% and −8.3–19.1%, respectively. It is generally reasonable to conclude thatGCMstructure‐related uncertainty is greater than that associated with the emission scenarios and climate sensitivity.

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources in the Rio Grande Basin, Brazil

Abstract. We quantify uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on the discharge of Rio Grande, a major tributary of the Paraná River in South America and one of the most important basins in Brazil for water supply and hydro-electric power generation. We consider uncertainty in climate projections associated with the greenhouse-gas emission scenarios (A1b, A2, B1, B2) and increases in global mean air temperature of 1 to 6° C for the HadCM3 GCM (Global Circulation Model) as well as uncertainties related to GCM structure. For the latter, multimodel runs using 6 GCMs (CCCMA CGCM31, CSIRO Mk30, IPSL CM4, MPI ECHAM5, NCAR CCSM30, UKMO HadGEM1) and HadCM3 as baseline, for a +2° C increase in global mean temperature. Pattern-scaled GCM-outputs are applied to a large-scale hydrological model (MGB-IPH) of Rio Grande Basin. Based on simulations using HadCM3, mean annual river discharge increases, relative to the baseline or control run period (1961–1990), by +5% to +10% under the SRES emissions scenarios and from +8% to +51% with prescribed increases in global mean air temperature of between 1 and 6° C. Substantial uncertainty in projected changes to mean river discharge (−28% to +13%) under the 2° C warming scenario is, however, associated with the choice of GCM. We conclude that, in the case of Rio Grande Basin, the most important source of uncertainty derives from the GCM rather than the emission scenario or the magnitude of rise in mean global temperature.