Crime Propensity Research Articles

The When, Where, and Who of Unstructured Socializing: Exploring the Intersection of Crime Propensity and Neighborhood Collective Efficacy

ABSTRACT Prior research consistently finds unsupervised and unstructured peer-oriented socializing conducive to crime but struggles to study its simultaneous relation to neighborhood- and individual-level characteristics. This study analyses spatial and temporal patterns of unstructured socializing, considering both individual crime propensity and neighborhood collective efficacy, using data from the Malmö Individual and Neighborhood Development Study and Malmö Community Survey. Employing space–time budget methodology, the findings reveal that unstructured socializing is more common among adolescents with higher crime propensity and typically occurs outside their residential neighborhoods. Contrary to expectations, unstructured socializing is not more prevalent in neighborhoods with lower collective efficacy nor is there an interaction effect between crime propensity and collective efficacy. Overall, the results highlight the need to integrate both place and individual factors to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of unstructured socializing.

Cumulative Risk as a Marker of Social Context.

This paper takes on 'Farrington's challenge' 'to bridge the gap between risk factor research and more complex explanatory theories' by offering an explanation for the unexplained statistical phenomenon of cumulative risk. We argue that cumulative risk primarily reflects the social contexts which crime relevant causal processes operate in and draw upon for their content and efficacy. This paper tests if the immediate causes of crime according to Situational Action Theory (crime propensity and criminogenic exposure) can account for the relationship between cumulative risk (reflecting key features of family, neighbourhood, school and peer contexts) and crime involvement. The paper uses data from the Peterborough Adolescent and Young Adult Development Study (PADS+) reflecting the social lives and criminal behaviour of a randomly sampled UK age cohort from ages 12 to 24 (2003-2016). Data used are drawn from parent and participant questionnaires, space-time budgets, community surveys, the UK Census and land use databases. Cumulative risk statistically accounts for 7% and 8%of the variance in crime prevalence and frequency, respectively,whereas crime propensity and criminogenic exposure account for 52% and 58%, respectively. Moreover, and importantly, measures of crime propensity and criminogenic exposure fully account for (statistically mediate) the association between cumulative risk and both crime prevalence and crime frequency. Cumulative risk does not represent cumulative causation. The phenomenon of cumulative risk is best understood as representing the social context. Future research should focus on identifying features of social contexts that provide relevant content to and impact the efficacy of key action (and developmental) processes in crime causation.

ALÉM DAS MARCAS: UMA ANÁLISE CRÍTICA DAS TEORIAS DE CESARE LOMBROSO SOBRE AS CARACTERÍSTICAS FÍSICAS E SUA RELEVÂNCIA NA CRIMINOLOGIA CONTEMPORÂNEA

This scientific article investigates the evolution and contemporary relevance of Cesare Lombroso's theories, with emphasis on his proposals on the relationship between physical characteristics and criminal behavior. The theory of the born criminal, proposed by Lombroso, which suggests that certain physical characteristics could indicate an innate predisposition to criminal behavior, is critically examined. The objective is to evaluate the validity of these ideas, exploring whether there is a significant correlation between physical characteristics and propensity for crime, as suggested by Lombroso. To this end, historical materials on Lombroso and his criminological school were reviewed, as well as contemporary studies on the influence of biological factors on criminal behavior. The methodology included a critical analysis of academic and historical literature. The results indicate that while Lombroso's ideas were pioneering, they have been widely discredited due to their biological determinism and the lack of conclusive evidence linking specific physical characteristics to criminal behavior. The discussion underscores the importance of understanding the historical impact of these theories and the advancement of criminology towards a more balanced approach, considering both genetic and environmental factors. In conclusion, the work emphasizes the need for a critical analysis of Lombroso's theories and suggests that current criminology should integrate a more holistic and scientific perspective on the causality of criminal behavior.

DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS AND URBAN PROPERTY CRIME: A LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN KUALA LUMPUR AND PUTRAJAYA (2015-2020)

In an era where urbanization is rapidly transforming the landscape of cities, this study provides a crucial overview of how demographic shifts influence property crime in metropolitan areas. The paper delves into the complex interplay between property crime rates and demographic characteristics in the urban settings of Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya, Malaysia, over six years from 2015 to 2020. Employing linear regression analysis, the study meticulously examines the relationship between property crime and various demographic factors, including total population, male and female populations, and residential and household densities. The findings indicate a consistent positive correlation between total population and property crime, emphasizing urban density's role in crime propensity. Notably, the male population shows a stronger correlation with property crime than females. The study also highlights how residential and household densities influence property crime in these urban settings. These insights are invaluable for policymakers and urban planners, guiding targeted strategies to reduce property crime in growing cities.

Patent Applications as Glimpses into the Sociotechnical Imaginary: Ethical Speculation on the Imagined Futures of Emotion AI for Mental Health Monitoring and Detection

Patent applications provide insight into how inventors imagine and legitimize uses of their imagined technologies; as part of this imagining they envision social worlds and produce sociotechnical imaginaries. Examining sociotechnical imaginaries is important for emerging technologies in high-stakes contexts such as the case of emotion AI to address mental health care. We analyzed emotion AI patent applications (N=58) filed in the U.S. concerned with monitoring and detecting emotions and/or mental health. We examined the described technologies' imagined uses and the problems they were positioned to address. We found that inventors justified emotion AI inventions as solutions to issues surrounding data accuracy, care provision and experience, patient-provider communication, emotion regulation, and preventing harms attributed to mental health causes. We then applied an ethical speculation lens to anticipate the potential implications of the promissory emotion AI-enabled futures described in patent applications. We argue that such a future is one filled with mental health conditions' (or 'non-expected' emotions') stigmatization, equating mental health with propensity for crime, and lack of data subjects' agency. By framing individuals with mental health conditions as unpredictable and not capable of exercising their own agency, emotion AI mental health patent applications propose solutions that intervene in this imagined future: intensive surveillance, an emphasis on individual responsibility over structural barriers, and decontextualized behavioral change interventions. Using ethical speculation, we articulate the consequences of these discourses, raising questions about the role of emotion AI as positive, inherent, or inevitable in health and care-related contexts. We discuss our findings' implications for patent review processes, and advocate for policy makers, researchers and technologists to refer to patent (applications) to access, evaluate and (re)consider potentially harmful sociotechnical imaginaries before they become our reality.

Beyond monolithic threat: Understanding risk typology in court-involved Black male youth

Black male youth are at greatest risk of disparate contact and detention in the U.S. juvenile justice system. This study aims to identify recidivism risk/need patterns among African American male youth in the Ohio juvenile justice system, utilizing cluster analysis of risk assessment data from the Ohio Youth Assessment System-Disposition (OYAS-DIS). We found four distinct risk patterns and accompanying recidivism rates in the Black male youth population. Two of the clusters exhibited moderate levels of risk. However, they had significantly different recidivism outcomes, suggesting certain combinations of risk factors have more or less impact the propensity for crime in the Black male sample. Implications for policy and practice are discussed, as well as future directions for research.

Usability of MAO-A gene in the judicial process

Monoamine oxidase (MAO-A) is an enzyme found in the nervous system and plays an important role in the breakdown of monoamine neurotransmitters. This enzyme varies among individuals depending on genetic factors. The monoamine oxidase-A (MAO-A) gene has been studied by various researchers to understand behavioral differences between individuals and evaluate crime propensity. However, serious ethical and legal problems may arise regarding the use of genetic factors alone in the judicial process. In this context, considering environmental factors as well as the MAO-A gene may contribute to the development of a more comprehensive approach. The role of the MAO-A gene in the judgment process has created an area of research that allows us to understand behavioral differences. The MAO-A gene has been associated with various behavioral traits. It has particular effects on aggressive behavior, antisocial behavior, and emotional reactions. In this context, the MAO-A gene may be an important factor in determining how individuals respond to environmental factors and guide their judgment processes. Some studies show that individuals with low MAO-A activity may be prone to antisocial behavior and crime. Thus, the MAO-A gene can be taken into consideration in determining guilt in legal processes. Assessing individuals' criminal propensity based on genetic factors can make the justice system more effective and fair. For example, harsh childhood conditions or traumatic experiences can trigger genetic predispositions and increase criminal propensity. In this case, it is important to take environmental factors into account when evaluating the genetic profile of the individual during the judicial process. Many ethical and legal issues need to be carefully considered on how to integrate the MAO-A gene into the judicial system. Therefore, research on the usability of the MAO-A gene in the judicial process should be continued.

Beyond the risk factors of sports-related match-fixing: Testing the applicability of situational action theory

Despite the increasing academic interest in match-fixing, little is known about the behavioral determinants of this phenomenon. This study applies key theoretical concepts of situational action theory (SAT) to sportspersons’ decision-making process when confronted with sports-related match-fixing (SRMF) propositions. Using a factorial survey, amateur football players ( n = 661), and tennis players ( n = 609) in Flanders (Belgium) were asked to evaluate hypothetical realistic situations containing match-fixing propositions. Our results show that sportspersons’ crime propensity, mostly determined by their moral judgment of SRMF and self-control, and their levels of temptation, together with a number of SAT interactions, were the best predictors of SRMF as a form of sports-related rule breaking. We conclude that SAT provides a valuable theoretical framework to study fraud in sports phenomena such as SRMF, and that factorial surveys have great potential to allow researchers to reach beyond the risk factor stage of research, to efficiently inform prevention initiatives.

A classification model for municipalities in the paraense Amazon regarding the risk of violence against women: A multicriteria approach.

Violence against women (VAW) is a serious violation of the rights to life, health, and physical integrity. Recent studies point out that social, economic, and demographic factors directly impact the advance of this type of violence. In view of these facts, the state has its responsibility increased when it cannot provide the public equipment necessary for management strategies that collaborate with the confrontation of violence. This project aims to develop a multicriteria decision analysis model (MCDA) to classify Pará municipalities with regard to the propensity for VAW crime, based on the mapping of assistance and protection equipment, as well as socioeconomic indicators of each municipality. The model developed and the research findings represent an important step in elaboration. In turn, this model demonstrates its ability to be a possible instrument that decision makers and implementers of public policies aimed at protecting and supporting women victims of violence in order to anticipate new occurrences.

Personalities, Cyber Activities, and Adolescent Cyber Delinquency

This study examines how crime propensity characteristics relate to cyber delinquency directly and indirectly, through crime opportunity. In doing so, it considers propensity by way of different aspects of personality and crime opportunity in the form of a comprehensive set of online activities. Both the direct and indirect relationships are modeled using path analysis in MPlus with the data from 2,015 students from schools in South Korea. Findings suggest several personality traits and online computer activities are significantly related to cyber delinquency. Moreover, these activities often mediate the effects of propensity as measured by personality factors. Overall, findings support the idea that individual enduring propensities and online activities work in tandem to predict adolescent cyber offending.

Aggressive spectators in sporting milieus: A test of Situational Action Theory

ABSTRACT Violence among spectators in sports is a global phenomenon posing hazards for players, match officials, and other participants. Despite its widespread prevalence, scant criminological research has investigated the matter. To fill this void, this study examines the predictive efficacy of key theoretical constructs derived from Situational Action Theory on aggressive behaviour among a sample of 384 soccer spectators in Iran. Results reveal that crime propensity, criminogenic exposure, action alternatives, and choice have direct effects on spectator engagement in violent behaviour. Furthermore, results demonstrate that crime propensity and criminogenic exposure (propensity*exposure) and action alternatives and choice (action alternatives*choice) interact to increase violence among sport spectators in a manner consistent with the theory. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed.

The Imagined Immigration and the Criminal Immigrant: Expanding the Catalog of Immigrant-Related Ignorance

Whether it be about population size, origin, or legal status, what ordinary citizens imagine about immigrants is often incorrect. Furthermore, these misperceptions predict greater dislike of foreigners. But, if one considers all the facts that people could get wrong, researchers have likely only scratched the surface. To advance toward a more complete catalog of misperceptions, the current study focuses on one commonly held stereotype: immigrants’ propensity for crime. Using original data from a sample of college students, we examine the crime perception alongside nine established components of the imagined immigration, comparing their extent and consequences for a hypothetical anti-immigrant policy. Findings indicate that misperception levels vary across the ten factual questions considered. Many mistakes are consequential, but the criminal stereotype is the most damaging. It constitutes an important missing component in imagined immigration studies. The findings present implications for anti-immigrant sentiment research and for developing a more accurately informed population.

Trust and crime propensity in Zapopan

El objetivo de esta investigación es señalar que la confianza generalizada es uno de los factores asociados a la propensión a la delictiva desde una perspectiva sociológica. De ahí que se realizó una encuesta presencial a 400 hogares del municipio mexicano de Zapopan, Jalisco; para conocer su percepción sobre distintas realidades sociales, entre estas, su nivel de confianza social y su propensión a infringir la ley. A través de modelos logit se encuentra que la educación y la edad tienen una relación negativa con la intención de cometer un crimen, mientras que las variables corrupción y desconfianza tienen una asociación positiva.

The association between child maltreatment and juvenile delinquency in the context of Situational Action Theory: Crime propensity and criminogenic exposure as mediators in a sample of European youth?  

The association between child maltreatment and juvenile delinquency in the context of Situational Action Theory: Crime propensity and criminogenic exposure as mediators in a sample of European youth?  

From structural time use to situational rule-breaking: Analysing adolescents’ time use and the person-setting interaction

While unsupervised and unstructured socialising with peers is associated with delinquency, less is known about to what extent it fits within adolescents’ daily routine activities; that is, their general, structural time use. Furthermore, research informed by the situational action theory shows that unstructured socialising increases the probability of rule-breaking acts more for individuals with higher crime propensity. Hence, structural time use might explain patterns of unstructured socialising, and crime propensity might explain why some are at an increased risk of committing rule-breaking acts during such situations. The present study aims to connect these three aspects and examine: (i) how adolescents tend to structure their time use, (ii) if their structural time use differentially places them in unstructured socialising, and (iii) whether some adolescents during unstructured socialising run an elevated risk of committing rule-breaking acts due to their morality (as part of their crime propensity) while also taking their structural time use into account. Using a sample of 512 adolescents (age 16) in Sweden, time use and morality are analysed using latent class analysis based on space-time budget data and a self-report questionnaire. Multilevel linear probability models are utilised to examine how rule-breaking acts result from an interaction between an individual’s morality and unstructured socialising, also taking structural time use into account. Results show that the likelihood of unstructured socialising in private but not in public is different across identified latent classes. Adolescents, in general, run an elevated risk of rule-breaking acts during unstructured socialising, irrespective of structural time use. In this study, these acts consist mainly of alcohol consumption. However, the risk is higher for adolescents with lower morality. Adolescents’ time use may account for a general pattern of delinquency, but accounting for rule-breaking acts requires knowledge of the interaction between person and setting.

Analytic Criminology: Mechanisms and Methods in the Explanation of Crime and its Causes

Criminology is a smorgasbord of disparate theory and poorly integrated research findings. Theories tend to focus either on people's crime propensity or the criminogenic inducements of environments; rarely are these two main approaches effectively combined in the analysis of crime and its causes. Criminological research often either avoids questions of causation and explanation (e.g., risk factor approach) or is based on research designs that yield highly partial accounts (e.g., place-oriented experimental work). To advance knowledge about crime and its causes and prevention, we argue that there is a need for an analytic criminology that allows key theoretical insights and central empirical findings about people's crime propensities and environments’ criminogenic inducements and their combination to be integrated based on an adequate action theory. In this review, we outline this approach and its main methodological implications and discuss how its focus on why and how questions leads to a characteristic integration of theory development, methods, and research.

Explaining Chinese Delinquency: Self-Control, Morality, and Criminogenic Exposure

This study extends the testing of situational action theory (SAT) to a Chinese population, and sheds new light on the directions of the moderation relationships between self-control and morality, and between crime propensity and criminogenic exposure on delinquency. Relying on a large, representative sample of middle school students from two areas of Guizhou, China ( N = 2,498), we find that both self-control and morality have significant inhibiting effects on delinquency. Moreover, self-control has a more profound curbing effect on delinquency among adolescents with higher levels of morality. Meanwhile, the promoting effect of crime propensity on delinquency decreases when levels of risky exposure increase. When adolescents have more unsupervised activities and delinquent peers, their crime propensity affects delinquency to a lesser extent. Our study confirms that individual and situational factors interlock in determining delinquency, and reiterates the value of empirical testing across cultures to validate and possibly improve general theories of crime.

Stacked Framework for Ensemble of Heterogeneous Classification Algorithms

Ensemble methods fabricate a sequence of classifiers for classifying fresh instances by procuring a weighted vote of their individual predictions. Toning down the error and increasing accuracy is an avant-garde problem in ensemble classification. This paper presents a novel generic object-oriented voting and weighting adapted stacking framework for utilizing an ensemble of classifiers for prediction. This universal framework operates based on the weighted average of the probabilities of any suite of base learners and the final prediction is the aggregate of their respective votes. For illustrative purposes, three familiar heterogeneous classifiers, such as the Support Vector Machine, [Formula: see text]-Nearest Neighbor and Naïve Bayes, are utilized as candidates for ensemble classification using the proposed stacked framework. Further, the ensemble classifier built upon the framework is compared with others and evaluated using various cross-validation levels and percentage splits on a range of benchmark datasets. The outcome distinguishes the framework from the competition. The proposed framework is used to predict the crime propensity of prisoners most accurately, with 99.9901% accuracy.

The association between child maltreatment and juvenile delinquency in the context of Situational Action Theory: Crime propensity and criminogenic exposure as mediators in a sample of European youth?

The current study investigates the association between physical child maltreatment and juvenile delinquent behavior in the context of the Situational Action Theory (SAT) (Wikström, 2006, 2017, 2020). Self-control, morality and exposure to criminogenic settings are proposed as possible mechanisms explaining the association between physical child maltreatment and adolescent offending. The hypotheses are tested in a subsample of the third wave of the International Self-Report Delinquency Study (ISRD3), a large international non-clinical study on delinquency and victimization among adolescents. The final sample consists of N = 24,956 adolescents aged 12–16 years from nine West European countries. While controlling for dependence due to nested data and several covariates, the models are tested for overall offending and separately for violent and property offending. Results confirm that physical child maltreatment is associated with the main concepts of SAT (lower self-control; lower morality; and more exposure to criminogenic environments), which in turn are associated with juvenile delinquency. The models show partial mediation for overall offending, property offending and violent offending. The findings provide support for the theoretical prowess of SAT and its main concepts: self-control, morality and exposure to criminogenic settings as mediators in the well-established physical child maltreatment/delinquency link. These findings are consistent with the ‘cycle of violence’ perspective and contribute to the theoretical clarification of the mechanisms involved in the child maltreatment/delinquency link. The findings fail to confirm a ‘crime-specific propensity’. The article concludes with a discussion of implications for prevention.

Situational Action Theory and the particular case of settings including a group

Situational Action Theory (SAT) postulates that personal crime propensity and the setting’s criminogenic features are direct causes of crime. This perspective also places a central focus on the moral factors involved. The moral norms of settings have not yet been exhaustively examined in regard to the aspects that may influence them. This theoretical article applies SAT to the particular case of settings including a group. Building upon previous literature on social cohesion in groups (such as team spirit/esprit de corps), the group present in the setting is presumably more likely to be identified by the individual if such group cohesiveness is high. When perceived, the moral norms of the group and deterrence should have an influence through becoming part of the setting in the causation of crime, according to SAT. This application suggests that SAT is a fruitful approach for explaining the impacts of groups on crime.