Credibility Of Fiscal Policy Research Articles

Fiscal multipliers, public debt anchor and government credibility in a behavioural macroeconomic model

We develop a behavioural macroeconomic model to investigate the question of fiscal policy credibility and how agents’ expectations about the output gap, public debt, expenditure and taxation affect the fiscal multiplier and debt stability. To do this, we model heterogeneous expectation-formation processes in a market populated by fundamentalists and chartists, agents being able to switch from one rule to another depending on the effective outcome in each period. This model produces waves of optimism and pessimism along the business cycle. We show in this article that when agents are optimistic about the future output gap and public debt, the fiscal multiplier tends to be larger whatever the nature of the fiscal shock. It also appears that fiscal expansion has less of a negative effect on public debt. Furthermore, agents’ expectations about public debt and the fiscal credibility of the government affect indicators of government performance (the fiscal multiplier and public debt stability).

(2021) Volume 2, Issue 4 Cultural Implications of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC Authors: Dr. Unsa Jamshed Amar Jahangir Anbrin Khawaja Abstract: This study is an attempt to highlight the cultural implication of CPEC on Pak-China relations, how it will align two nations culturally, and what steps were taken by the governments of two states to bring the people closer.

(2021) Volume 2, Issue 4 Cultural Implications of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC Authors: Dr. Unsa Jamshed Amar Jahangir Anbrin Khawaja Abstract: This study is an attempt to highlight the cultural implication of CPEC on Pak-China relations, how it will align two nations culturally, and what steps were taken by the governments of two states to bring the people closer.

The role of Fiscal Institutional Context on primary balance. A case study for European country groups with cultural differences

Many countries have introduced fiscal institutions (fiscal rules and fiscal councils) to deter fiscal indiscipline, reduce macroeconomic forecasting bias and enhance the credibility of fiscal policy. In this study, we use a theoretical model in order to examine how the existence of a fiscal council can reduce a country’s debt. In addition, we examine the impact of fiscal institutions on primary balance in 2 European country groups (PIIGCS and DFGNS countries) that have cultural differences. The analysis builds on panel data estimation methods of fixed effects and random effects depending on the Hausman test results. This study finds that the fiscal institutional context (frifc) has a positive and significant effect on PB. More specifically, we find that one change in fiscal institutional context improves PB by a factor of 0.925 and 1.181 in PIIGCS countries and DFGNS countries, respectively.

The Relationship of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Credibility with the Stock Market Volatility in a Developing Country

The present study aims to analyse the relationship between fiscal and monetary credibility and the volatility of the Brazilian stock market index, Ibovespa. The results demonstrate that the greater the credibility of the target imposed by the Brazilian Central Bank, the more predictable and stable are the macroeconomic variables and the greater the confidence of economic agents in the Brazilian stock market. We can conclude that the greater the fiscal and monetary credibility, the better is the performance of the stock market.

Risks of Global Financial Markets and the Importance of Credibility: Implications for Hungarian Fiscal Policy

The central issue in the controversy about the adoption of the euro in Hungary is the difficulties associated with the fulfillment of the fiscal criterion and the possible growth sacrifice it requires. In this paper the author examines the question whether the strategy of delaying entry into the euro-zone implies that fiscal consolidation can be delayed as well. In approaching the problem the paper considers the origins and history of the present-day global financial markets and argues that given the high degree of systemic risks individual countries face responsible macroeconomic policies are crucial in minimizing vulnerability tocrises. Consequently in order to avoid excessive interest rates and speculative inflows (or currency crisis in the worst case scenario) fiscal deficits in Hungary would have to be cut and credibility of fiscal policy reestablished even without EMU accession. The overall conclusion from this overview is that delaying entry in order to delay fiscal adjustment is likely to increase the trade off between real and nominal convergence instead of mitigating it.
 JEL classification: F33, F41, H62

Can fiscal rules improve financial market access for developing countries?

A number of countries have introduced fiscal rules to deter fiscal profligacy, enhance the credibility of fiscal policy, and reduce borrowing costs. In this paper, we examine the outcome of fiscal rules in terms of improving financial market access for developing countries. We use entropy balancing and various propensity score matching. We find that the adoption of fiscal rules reduces sovereign bond spreads and increases sovereign debt ratings for a sample of 36 developing countries, which are part of the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBIG), for the period 1993-2014. We explain this finding by the effect of fiscal rules on the credibility of a country's fiscal policy: more credible governments are rewarded in the international financial markets by low sovereign bond spreads and high sovereign debt ratings. These results are robust to a wide set of alternative specifications. We also show that this favorable effect is sensitive to several country structural characteristics. Our findings confirm that the adoption and sound implementation of fiscal rules is an instrument for policy makers to improve developing countries’ financial market access.

Second-Generation Fiscal Rules: Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability

Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term anchor. Enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have also been upgraded. However, these innovations have made the systems of rules more complicated to operate, while compliance has not improved. The SDN takes stock of past experiences, reviews recent reforms, and presents new research on the effectiveness of rules. It also proposes guiding principles for future reforms to strike a better balance between simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Read the blog

CAN THE CREDIBLE FISCAL POLICY MITIGATE THE TERMS OF TRADE FLUCTUATION?

This paper examines the links between fiscal policy and terms-of-trade movement in the case of Indonesia over the period 2001-13. Unlike other researchers, this paper explores both the rules-based and discretionary fiscal policies. The earlier factor covers deficit rule and debt rule which are intended to measure the fiscal policy credibility. The later follows Fatás and Mihov (2003; 2006). The OLS estimation of quarterly data reveals that the less credible deficit rule policy and discretionary fiscal policy have a positive impact on the terms of trade. In contrast, the more credible debt rule policy and government size tend to depreciate the terms of trade. Those findings suggest that fiscal policy credibility does not matter in the context of international market. Furthermore, to mitigate the external risks, the government intervention to the international market debt should be limited.

THE MAGNITUDE OF FINANCIAL IMBALANCES CORRECTION AND THE PROBLEM OF RESTORING GROWTH

EMU imbalances correction sparked active discussions on choosing the optimal policy for mitigating risks of divergence and restoring competitiveness. Concentration on balance of payments is within the framework of simultaneously solving the problem of external imbalance, capital outflow, restoring growth, and preventing the opposing vectors of trajectory of the real effective exchange rates. However, overcoming the crisis consequences requires a wider approach to how the imbalances correction contributes to the growth recovery. Theoretically, the rate of post-crisis growth recovery should correspond with the variables that constitute imbalances correction. Based on regression analysis, it is clear that such hypothesis is proved only partially. Growth is more likely to recover if there is a more substantial correction of current account and credit market cleaning-up, whereas the correction on real estate market is not as effective. At the same time, real disposable income correction is likely to negatively influence the growth recovery. Nevertheless, this doesn’t mean that internal devaluation shouldn’t be utilized as an option during macroeconomic adjustment. It should occur with credit market cleaning-up. Fiscal space is crucial here, as it determines the credibility of fiscal policy devoted to mitigation of accumulated household sector debt burden. The reaction to the financial cycle is a fundamentally important element of macroeconomic management in the monetary union in regards to the macroeconomic design of integration zone.

Enhancing the accuracy of fiscal projections in South Africa

The accuracy of the National Treasury's projections of GDP and key fiscal aggregates is comparable to that of the projections of private sector economists, other reputable organisations and the fiscal authorities of other countries. The errors in the projections of the National Treasury have nonetheless been substantial in some years, and have increased from 2000/01 to 2010/11. This paper argues that the credibility of fiscal policy would have been severely tested if the largest annual errors in respect of the various aggregates had coincided. Against this backdrop, the paper makes the case for structured bi-annual discussions of government’s forecasts during public parliamentary hearings as a mechanism for improving the accuracy and credibility of official projections. It also discusses the potential benefits for South Africa of two alternative mechanisms, namely fiscal councils and committees of independent experts.

Enhancing the Accuracy of Fiscal Projections in South Africa

The accuracy of the National Treasury's projections of GDP and key fiscal aggregates is comparable to that of the projections of private sector economists, other reputable organisations and the fiscal authorities of other countries. The errors in the projections of the National Treasury have nonetheless been substantial in some years, and have increased from 2000/01 to 2010/11. This paper argues that the credibility of fiscal policy would have been severely tested if the largest annual errors in respect of the various aggregates had coincided. Against this backdrop, the paper makes the case for structured bi-annual discussions of government’s forecasts during public parliamentary hearings as a mechanism for improving the accuracy and credibility of official projections. It also discusses the potential benefits for South Africa of two alternative mechanisms, namely fiscal councils and committees of independent experts.

Does the Credible Fiscal Policy Support the Prices Stabilization?

Abstract This paper aims at analyzing the co-movement between fiscal policy and monetary policy rules in the context of price stabilization. More specifically, we observe the potential impact of fiscal policy credibility on the price stabilization in the inflation targeting framework. Motivated by the fact that empirical studies concerning this aspect are still limited, we take the case of Indonesia over the period 2001-2013. Based on the quarterly data analysis, we found that the impact of credibility typically depends on characteristics of fiscal rules commitment. On one hand, the credibility of debt rule reduces the inflation rate. In contrast, the incredible deficit rule policy does not have any impact on the inflation rate and therefore does not support to inflation targeting. Given those results, we conclude that credibility matters in stabilizing price levels. Accordingly, those findings suggest tightening coordination between monetary and fiscal policy to maintain fiscal sustainability in accordance with price stabilization policy

Fiscal Policy and its Implication for Central Banks

Over the past decade, prudent fiscal management has served Thailand well in cushioning the impact of the global financial turbulence. However, going forward, fiscal risks which include a weakened global economic outlook, unbalanced fiscal structure and growing contingent liabilities may have implications for fiscal debt sustainability in the medium term. Since the credibility of fiscal policy greatly influences the conduct and effectiveness of monetary policy, central banks have an incentive to monitor fiscal positions closely. At the same time, it is important to preserve central bank independence and credibility to ensure that the central bank can carry out its primary mandate. In relation to this, policy coordination between the central bank and the government is crucial both in terms of policy stance and public debt management, which will also help foster bond market development and promote financial stability.Full publication: Fiscal Policy, Public Debt and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies

The Swedish fiscal policy framework and intermediate fiscal policy targets

Summary Sweden is a front-runner in defining intermediate targets for fiscal policy (fiscal rules) as well as in setting up an independent fiscal council to monitor and comment on developments. Swedish public finances are among the most sound in the OECD having been able to consolidate public finances and ensure fiscal sustainability, and they have maintained room for fiscal manoeuvre also during the financial crisis. This paper takes a closer look at the Swedish case as the stepping stone for a more general discussion of how to set intermediate targets for fiscal policy and the role fiscal councils may have in strengthening political accountability and thus ultimately credibility of fiscal policy. The Swedish fiscal framework is compared to the fiscal compact for EU countries, and it is argued that it has a number of desirable features.

Oil and Gas Revenue Management in Azerbaijan

This policy paper is an assessment of the current situation in management of oil revenues in Azerbaijan in order to find solutions for improving it. This policy paper is the result of research conducted by the research team of Economic Research Center with the financial support of Revenue Watch Institute in 2013. In the paper, analysis was carried out on the macroeconomic environment, fiscal rules and legal bases for the management of oil revenues in Azerbaijan, policy of the management of oil revenues was evaluated, assessment was done on participation of policy makers, especially national oil fund, in the decision-making process on the management of oil revenues, and their influences. In some instances, the comparative analysis of superior and inferior features of oil revenues management was done taking Kazakhstan and Norway as the reference countries. The main aim of this policy paper is to assess the current situation of management of oil revenues in Azerbaijan, unfold its weaknesses and strengths, identify key problems and prepare alternative policies for solution of these issues. The first part gives the general assessment by describing Azerbaijan’s revenue management system; the second part diagnoses the problems; the third part analyzes the problems created by the inefficiencies in the legislative system; and the fourth part describes four possible futures depending on the choices taken today. This paper does not just diagnose the problem; it also offers solutions. It suggests specific fiscal rules that could be adopted by the Government of Azerbaijan to reduce volatility and improve the quality of public spending. It provides options for enforcing these fiscal rules. And it makes recommendations on improving the credibility of fiscal policy through enhanced transparency and accountability. The readers of this policy paper will be informed about the outcomes of retrospective analysis of oil revenues in Azerbaijan as well as various options in management of oil revenues within the scope of current and perspective opportunities.