COVID-19 Containment Measures Research Articles

High rates of violence and low police reporting amongst sex workers in the Netherlands during the COVID-19 pandemic

IntroductionDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, sex work in the Netherlands was forbidden for many months, yet most sex workers were not eligible for governmental financial support. Therefore, many were forced to continue working illegally, likely leading to unsafe work conditions. We determined sex workers’ experienced violence and police reporting during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsData were collected through an online, anonymous survey (N = 173) covering background characteristics, the financial impact of the COVID-19 control measures, experienced sexual and/or physical violence, and police reporting in relation to experienced violence in 2021. We analyzed the data through descriptive statistics and multiple logistic regression analysis. Contextualization was achieved through online focus group discussions (FGDs; N = 3 covering a total of 14 sex workers and 4 social/health workers).ResultsIn total, 41% (n/N = 71/173) of sex workers reported at least one form of violence, and those facing severe financial problems due to the COVID-19 containment measures were significantly more likely to report violence (adjusted OR: 2.7, CI 1.0–7.2, p = 0.049) compared to those without financial problems. Only 9% of those having reason to file charges officially did so. FGDs explained that violence was high due to the unsafe working conditions, and police reporting was low because police were more concerned with enforcing COVID-19 sex work restrictions rather than with prioritizing the safety and well-being of sex workers.DiscussionWe found high rates of reported violence and low police reporting among sex workers in The Netherlands during the COVID-19 pandemic, and COVID-19 control measures and enforcement likely contributed to these unsafe conditions. Safeguarding the safety of sex workers during future crises demands legislation grounded in human rights principles. This includes measures such as mitigating income loss during prohibition of sex work, and shifting police focus towards protecting rather than prosecuting sex workers engaged in illegal sex work.

The circulating characteristics of common respiratory pathogens in Ningbo, China, both before and following the cessation of COVID-19 containment measures

To assess the circulating characteristics of common respiratory pathogens following the complete relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the cessation of the dynamic zero-COVID policy. The retrospective analysis was conducted from 14,412 patients with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) from January 24, 2020, to December 31, 2023, including Influenza A virus (IFV-A), Influenza B virus (IFV-B), Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), Human Rhinovirus (HRV), Human Parainfluenza Virus (HPIV), Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV), Human Coronavirus (HCoV), Human Bocavirus (HBoV), Human Adenovirus (HAdV), and Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP). Compared with 2020–2022, Joinpoint analysis indicated a monthly increase in overall pathogen activity in 2023, rising from an average of 43.05% to an average of 68.46%. The positive rates of IFV-A, IFV-B, HMPV, HPIV, HCoV, and MP increased, while those of HRV and RSV decreased, and no differences in HAdV and HBoV. The outbreak of IFV-A and MP was observed, the positive rate of MP has surpassed pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels and the spread of RSV was interrupted by IFV-A. Infants and toddlers were primarily infected by HRV and RSV, Children and adolescents exhibited a higher prevalence of infections with MP, IFV-A, and HRV, whereas Adults and the elderly were primarily infected by IFV-A. The incidence of co-infections rose from 4.25 to 13.73%. Restricted cubic spline models showed that the susceptible age ranges for multiple pathogens expanded. These changes serve as a reminder to stay alert in the future and offer clinicians a useful guide for diagnosing and treating.

Comparison of characteristics of children hospitalized for respiratory syncytial virus infection during the pre- and post-COVID-19 eras: a multicenter retrospective study

BackgroundRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) among children, has resurged in the form of endemic or even pandemic in many countries and areas after the easing of COVID-19 containment measures. This study aimed to investigate the differences in epidemiological and clinical characteristics of children hospitalized for RSV infection during pre- and post-COVID-19 eras in Yunnan, China.MethodsA total of 2553 pediatric RSV inpatients from eight hospitals in Yunnan were retrospectively enrolled in this study, including 1451 patients admitted in 2018–2019 (pre-COVID-19 group) and 1102 patients admitted in 2023 (post-COVID-19 group). According to the presence or absence of severe LRTI (SLRTI), patients in the pre- and post-COVID-19 groups were further divided into the respective severe or non-severe subgroups, thus analyzing the risk factors for RSV-associated SLRTI in the two eras. Demographic, epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory data of the patients were collected for the final analysis.ResultsA shift in the seasonal pattern of RSV activity was observed between the pre-and post-COVID-19 groups. The peak period of RSV hospitalizations in the pre-COVID-19 group was during January–April and October–December in both 2018 and 2019, whereas that in the post-COVID-19 group was from April to September in 2023. Older age, more frequent clinical manifestations (fever, acute otitis media, seizures), and elevated laboratory indicators [neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), c-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin 6 (IL-6), co-infection rate] were identified in the post-COVID-19 group than those in the pre-COVID-19 group (all P < 0.05). Furthermore, compared to the pre-COVID-19 group, the post-COVID-19 group displayed higher rates of SLRTI and mechanical ventilation, with a longer length of hospital stay (all P < 0.05). Age, low birthweight, preterm birth, personal history of atopy, underlying condition, NLR, IL-6 were the shared independent risk factors for RSV-related SLRTI in both pre- and post-COVID-19 groups, whereas seizures and co-infection were independently associated with SLRTI only in the post-COVID-19 group.ConclusionsAn off-season RSV endemic was observed in Yunnan during the post-COVID-19 era, with changed clinical features and increased severity. Age, low birthweight, preterm birth, personal history of atopy, underlying condition, NLR, IL-6, seizures, and co-infection were the risk factors for RSV-related SLRTI in the post-COVID-19 era.

Severe Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Caused by Serotype 19A in Children Under Five Years in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, Aotearoa New Zealand.

Increases in childhood invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) have been reported in several countries following the easing of COVID-19 pandemic mitigations. In Aotearoa New Zealand (AoNZ), a surge in IPD is occurring in young children concurrent with changes in pneumococcal vaccines and declining immunization coverage. We sought to examine epidemiologic and clinical features of IPD among children under 5 years in a large urban region of AoNZ in the 3 years post-COVID-19. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collated from children under 5 years with Streptococcus pneumoniae identified from normally sterile sites between January 1, 2021, and December 31, 2023, in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, AoNZ. We identified 93 episodes of IPD (annual incidence of 18-40 cases per 100,000 population per year). Serotype was identified in 68 episodes and 46 (68%) were serotype 19A. Incidence was higher in Pacific children compared with non-Māori, non-Pacific children (incidence rate ratio: 2.3; 95% confidence interval: 1.4-3.7). Bacteremia occurred in 65 (70%) episodes, empyema in 47 (51%), meningitis in 11 (12%) and hemolytic uremic syndrome in 7 (7.5%). All cases of hemolytic uremic syndrome and empyema were only among children with serotype 19A. Two children died, both had serotype 19A, and 13/91 survivors (14%) experienced serious sequelae. The use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine with lower valency and easing of COVID-19 containment measures each may have contributed to an increase in IPD in AoNZ. Serotype 19A is associated with empyema and causes severe disease in young children. Urgent efforts are required to improve PCV13 coverage in AoNZ.

The response of labour demand to different COVID-19 containment measures: evidence from online job postings in Austria

This paper analyses changes in the speed of labour demand for new hires in response to the lockdowns that were repeatedly put in place to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. It tests whether the uncertainty-reducing effect of similar lockdowns occurring in quick succession increased the responsiveness of the labour market, thereby allowing for more rapid adjustment, both at the beginning and at the end of subsequent lockdowns. It uses high-frequency online job-posting data and applies an event study approach to the beginning of three national lockdowns and the subsequent reopening in Austria between 2020 and 2022. In view of the importance of progress in vaccination for labour market recovery, it also looks at vaccine roll-out as an additional COVID-19 containment measure, with 2021 as the main roll-out period. The results indicate very different responses to the three lockdowns, with a decline in job-posting activity of between 47 and 50% during the first lockdown and of between 29 and 31% during the second; but an increase of 23% to 28% during the last lockdown. Moreover, responses to the first lockdown were sluggish, with a slow decline at the beginning and a very slow recovery after it was lifted; but over subsequent lockdowns the responses were more rapid and more symmetrical. Responses to the various events differed by occupation and industry: the strongest responses were to be observed in the highly skilled and more-teleworkable occupations of technicians, and managers and professionals, who were badly affected during the first lockdown; the leisure and hospitality industry, which was the hardest hit on account of the mandatory closures and the widespread travel restrictions and bans, and which recovered only very slowly; and the IT, internet and telecommunications industry, where posting activity developed in a direction opposite to that seen in the other industries. Finally, there is little robust evidence of a differentiated effect of vaccinations during lockdowns, suggesting that vaccination roll-out did not have an additional demand-generating effect, over and above the lockdowns.

Viral Etiology Associated With Acute Respiratory Tract Infection Patients in Bangkok, Thailand.

Background Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are a significant public health concern globally. After the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures, there has been an increase in respiratory tract infections. However, the epidemiological data on circulating respiratory pathogens after the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangkok, Thailand are interesting. We conducted a study on the respiratory pathogens detected in patients with ARIs in 2023. Methodology This retrospective study utilizes archived nasopharyngeal swab samples from patients with ARIs of all ages at Bangpakok 9 Hospital between January and December 2023. These samples were collected when physicians ordered multiplex polymerase chain reaction testing as part of the diagnostic investigation. All samples were tested for 23 types of respiratory viruses and bacteria using multiplex reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (QIAstat-Dx, Qiagen) testing. Results Of 321 patients, viral pathogens were found in 78.5% of cases, with 21.5% remaining unidentified. Most patients (47%) were aged between two months to five years.The most common pathogen identified was rhino/enterovirus (28.0%), followed by human parainfluenza virus (15.1%), influenza virus (12.0%), respiratory syncytial virus (9.9%), human metapneumovirus (9.5%), adenovirus (9.2%), bocavirus (8.0%), and coronavirus (5.5%). Interestingly, the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was relatively low at 2.8%. Moreover, viral co-infection was observed in 25% of cases. Monthly distribution revealed the fluctuating prevalence of detected respiratory pathogens co-circulation throughout the year. In addition, the proportion of identified pathogens varied among patients across all age groups. Conclusions Our study reported the high prevalence of respiratory pathogens in ARI patients of all ages after the COVID-19 pandemic. The most prevalent respiratory pathogens among ARI cases were viruses, particularly rhino/enterovirus. The data hold significance for physician awareness regarding diagnosis, treatment, and the implementation of infection control strategies in cases of ARIs.

Remote work and location preferences: a study of post-pandemic trends in Italy

This study investigates how working remotely, by reducing workplace commuting, weakens the limitations connected to residential mobility and enables Tiebout sorting. We focus on the Italian context, where a strong culture of in-person workplace attendance limits workers’ ability to live farther from their workplace. We leverage the natural experiment of COVID-19 containment measures to shed light on the spatial implications of an increased remote work adoption. We overcome the unavailability of official data by collecting primary data in early 2022 through an original survey of our design on a sample of workers in 12 metropolitan areas. To address the challenges of analyzing the phenomenon in a still-developing context, we ask questions on both their actual and intended moving behavior in relation to remote work availability. Using a case–control study design, we find significant evidence that expecting to work remotely more frequently in the long term increases the likelihood of being interested in moving, or having done so already since the pandemic outbreak.

Changes in hypertensive control 2020-2021 in a family medicine unit

High blood pressure causes 9.4 million deaths worldwide annually (12.8% of total mortality). With the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures, the patterns of care for these patients changed. To evaluate the changes in hypertensive control of patients treated at UMF 18 of Tabasco before and after the appearance of COVID-19. Retrospective longitudinal observational study that included a random sample of 326 patients. Hypertensive control was evaluated in accordance with the current Clinical Practice Guideline. Information was collected on blood pressure, dyslipidemia, and glycated hemoglobin for diabetics, as well as other clinical variables and sociodemographic information. The proportion of patients who remained in hypertensive control, worsened or never remained in control was compared between the two periods. Associated factors were identified through multinomial regression analysis. Before the pandemic, in 2020, 79.1% of patients had blood pressure levels under control, by 2021 it dropped to 50%. T2 diabetes comorbidity was the most important risk factor for lack of control, which after the appearance of COVID-19 almost doubled its effect. A decrease of 29.1% was recorded in compliance with hypertensive control. Groups with greater difficulty in achieving therapeutic goals were identified, highlighting the economically active population.

The Effects of COVID-19 Infection on Opposition to COVID-19 Policies: Evidence from the U.S. Congress

ABSTRACT Elites’ skepticism of scientific consensus presents a formidable challenge in addressing critical issues like climate change and global pandemics. While extensive research has explored the capacity of events related to these challenges to act as “exogenous shocks,” motivating the general public to reassess their risk perceptions, our understanding of how elites similarly respond to such shocks remains limited. In this article, we investigate whether COVID-19 infections influenced US lawmakers’ support for COVID-19 containment measures, focusing on expressed opposition to COVID-19 policies on social media and in press releases throughout the first two years of the pandemic. Employing a staggered difference-in-differences design and matrix completion methods, our analysis reveals that COVID-19 infections caused a reduction of approximately 30% in legislators’ expressions of opposition to COVID-19 policies on social media. These findings underscore that elites are indeed responsive to policy shocks – even in highly polarized contexts – when they are personally affected by an issue.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Air Pollutants over the Epidemic Course: A National Study in China

Air pollution has been standing as one of the most pressing global challenges. The changing patterns of air pollutants at different spatial and temporal scales have been substantially studied all over the world, which, however, were intricately disturbed by COVID-19 and subsequent containment measures. Understanding fine-scale changing patterns of air pollutants at different stages over the epidemic’s course is necessary for better identifying region-specific drivers of air pollution and preparing for environmental decision making during future epidemics. Taking China as an example, this study developed a multi-output LightGBM approach to estimate monthly concentrations of the six major air pollutants (i.e., PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, O3, and CO) in China and revealed distinct spatiotemporal patterns for each pollutant over the epidemic’s course. The 5-year period of 2019–2023 was selected to observe changes in the concentrations of air pollutants from the pre-COVID-19 era to the lifting of all containment measures. The performance of our model, assessed by cross-validation R2, demonstrated high accuracy with values of 0.92 for PM2.5, 0.95 for PM10, 0.95 for O3, 0.90 for NO2, 0.79 for SO2, and 0.82 for CO. Notably, there was an improvement in the concentrations of particulate matter, particularly for PM2.5, although PM10 exhibited a rebound in northern regions. The concentrations of SO2 and CO consistently declined across the country over the epidemic’s course (p &lt; 0.001 and p &lt; 0.05, respectively), while O3 concentrations in southern regions experienced a notable increase. Concentrations of air pollutants in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region were effectively controlled and mitigated. The findings of this study provide critical insights into changing trends of air quality during public health emergencies, help guide the development of targeted interventions, and inform policy making aimed at reducing disease burdens associated with air pollution.

The impact of COVID-19 on deaths from dementia and Alzheimer’s disease in Chile: an analysis of panel data for 16 regions, 2017–2022

Although several studies have documented the detrimental impacts of global COVID-19 containment measures on individuals with Alzheimer's disease and dementia, a comprehensive analysis of mortality rates for these conditions within the Chilean population is notably lacking. This study aimed to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on mortality rates among individuals with dementia and Alzheimer's disease in Chile. A retrospective longitudinal cross-sectional study was conducted, considering mortality data for specific mental health conditions during the pre-pandemic and pandemic contexts of COVID-19 in Chile. Quantile regression techniques were employed to analyze the existence of differences between the two periods, while non-observable heterogeneity models for panel data methods were used to evaluate the effect of COVID-19 mortality on crude mortality rates. Statistically significant differences were observed in the number of deaths from dementia and Alzheimer's disease between the pre-pandemic and COVID-19 pandemic periods. Specifically, crude mortality rates decreased by 10% (-0.10 [95% CI:-0.16,-0.05]) during the pandemic period. Furthermore, the number of deaths from COVID-19 during the pandemic period has a very weak incidence of deaths from mental health conditions such as dementia and Alzheimer's. Specifically, a unit percentage increase in confirmed cases from COVID-19 would result in a 7% (-0.07 [95% CI:-0.13,-0.001]) decrease in the number of deaths from dementia and Alzheimer's. These findings are supported by the application of panel regression with one-way random effects models. The study findings indicate a reduction in mortality rates attributed to dementia and Alzheimer's disease during the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile. This decline could be attributed to the potential underreporting of mental illness as the cause of death during the pandemic period. Several studies have highlighted that approximately 30% of death certificates fail to document the presence of a dementia syndrome. Moreover, the cause of death recorded for individuals with mental health conditions may be influenced by the physician's familiarity with the patient or reflect the prevailing approach to managing end-stage dementia patients. This work received no funding.

Moderating the effect of age and sex on the relationship between personality and adherence to containment measures

Aim of the studyWe aimed to investigate the moderation effect of sex and age on the relationship between personality and adherence to COVID-19 containment measures.Subject or material and methodsParticipants were 4,538 Brazilian adults, ranging from 18 to 79 years old (M= 31.07, DP= 11.37), which responded to the BFI-2-S and questions regarding adherence to COVID-19 containment measures. We performed an SEM model to investigate the relationship between variables.ResultsOverall, our results indicated that agreeableness, neuroticism, extroversion, openness, and sex are significant predictors of adherence to containment measures. We also identified a positive moderation effect of age in the relationship between neuroticism and commitment to containment measures.DiscussionLevels of personality traits and sex can influence the tendency to comply with containment measures. Age does not directly impact adherence to containment measures; however, it can strengthen the relationship between neuroticism and commitment.ConclusionsIndividual differences can affect the adherence to the containment measures directly and indirectly.

Change in body weight of older adults before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: longitudinal results from the Berlin Aging Study II

ObjectivesChange in body weight during the COVID-19 pandemic as an unintended side effect of lockdown measures has been predominantly reported for younger and middle-aged adults. However, information on older adults for which weight loss is known to result in adverse outcomes, is scarce. In this study we describe the body weight change in older adults before, during, and after the COVID-19 lockdown measures and explore putative associated factors with a focus on the period that includes the first six months of the COVID-19 containment measures. DesignProspective cohort study with three follow-up examinations over the course of 10 years. Setting and ParticipantsIn this study, we analyzed the longitudinal weight change of 472 participants of the Berlin Aging Study II (mean age of 67.5 years at baseline). MeasurementsBody weight was assessed at four time points. Additionally, differences between subgroups characterized by socio-economic, cognitive, and psychosocial variables as well as morbidity burden, biological age markers (epigenetic clocks, telomere length), and frailty were compared. ResultsOn average, women and men lost 0.87% (n = 227) and 0.5% (n = 245) of their body weight per year in the study period covering the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Weight loss among men was particularly pronounced among groups characterized by change in physical activity due to COVID-19 lockdown, low positive affect, premature epigenetic age (7-CpG clock), diagnosed metabolic syndrome, and a more masculine gender score (all variables: p < 0.05, n = 245). ConclusionDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, older participants lost weight with a 2.5-times (women) and 2-times (men) higher rate than what is expected in this age.

Discrimination during COVID-19: Assessing migrant workers’ vulnerability to forced labor in Thailand’s seafood industry

Between 2020 and 2022, Thailand instituted a series of policies to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many of the regulations were rooted in structural discrimination against the migrant population. This paper reveals how the discriminatory nature of the government’s policies heightened the vulnerability of migrant workers in Thailand’s commercial fishing and seafood processing industries. COVID-19 containment measures and immigration policies, coupled with the exclusion of migrant workers from social protection programs, inadvertently subjected migrant workers in Thailand’s seafood industry to increased risk of forced labor. At the same time, further restrictions on freedom of association rights and the weakening of labor inspections during the pandemic hampered workers’ ability to report labor abuses and the government’s ability to identify and remedy cases of forced labor.

A political psychology of the link between populist beliefs and compliance with COVID-19 containment measures

This paper addresses the relationship between populist beliefs and compliance with COVID-19 containment measures. We argue that an understanding of this issue depends upon developing a social/political psychology which addresses the impact of social groups and social relations upon behavior. More specifically we propose that populist beliefs are based on the notion that elite authorities are opposed to the people and hence not to be trusted by them which in turn reduces compliance with what they propose. Furthermore, we draw distinctions between different domains of compliance (getting vaccinated, social distancing and complying with “track and trace”) and different forms of authority (politicians and scientists). We argue that, whereas loss of trust in politicians only undermines engagement with forms of compliance which involve direct engagement with political authority (i.e., track and trace) loss of trust in scientists undermines the very belief that there is a pandemic and hence reduces all forms of compliance. We use a survey of 321 English and Welsh respondents to address these arguments. The data provide weak support for the hypothesis that populism has an effect on compliance through trust in politicians but only in the case of participating in track and trace. The data provide stronger support for the hypothesis that populism has an effect on all forms of compliance through trust in scientists, but only when scientists are perceived as part of the elite. Over all these results demonstrate that the ability to understand the complex relationships between populist beliefs and compliance depends on developing a social/political psychology of COVID-19 which is able to explain how human behavior is shaped by social identities and social relationships which, in turn, are shaped by political ideologies.

Natural experiments to assess the effectiveness of Covid-19 containment measures

To assess the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in controlling infections during the Covid-19 pandemic, natural experiments are useful. This article introduces the principle of natural experiments and their statistical analysis and, in the first step, discusses their implementation in previous NPI studies. The validity of many studies on the effectiveness of NPIs is limited because, on the one hand, there are often no or only weak control conditions and, on the other hand, because there are problems in the specification of the analysis models. It is often implicitly assumed that only NPIs can slow down the infection process because there are no control variables for any other causes. In the second step, a natural experiment is analyzed about the effectiveness of five measures in the second Corona wave. Switzerland (where these measures were not taken) and neighboring Baden-Württemberg serve as comparison regions. It turns out that the closure of close-contact services causes a reduction in the effective reproduction number, i.e., dampens the wave of infections. However, closing schools and daycare facilities as well as hotels is not effective.

Covid-19 Containment Measures and their Effect on Socio-Economic Wellbeing of Uasin Gishu County Government Staff, Kenya

COVID-19 was a major health emergency worldwide; countries were forced to adopt quarantine measures and other restrictions because of the highly infectiousness nature of COVID-19. It is in this context that the study sought to investigate the Effect of the containment measures on socio-economic wellbeing of Uasin Gishu County Government Staff, Kenya. The specific objectives of the study were: to determine the influence of implementation of COVID-19 behavioural protocols on socio-economic wellbeing of staff of Uasin Gishu County Government; to assess the impact of implementation of COVID-19 fiscal measures on socioeconomic wellbeing of employees of Uasin Gishu County Government; and to determine the influence of implementation of COVID-19 macro-financial measures on socioeconomic wellbeing of employees of Uasin Gishu County; The study adopted explanatory mixed method research design. The target population comprised 6,400 employees in Uasin Gishu County. The study employed stratified sampling and simple random sampling techniques to select the respondents. The sample size consisted of 10 heads of departments and 198 employees of Uasin Gishu county government. The data collection tools were questionnaire and interview guide. The data collected was analyzed using descriptive statistics including mean, percentages and frequencies; chi-square was used to test the hypotheses. Inferential statistics was also used. Analysis by the implementation of COVID-19 behavioural protocols as a containment measure shows that the P-value = .000 was less than the Alpha level 0.05. Therefore, there was statistical significance relationship between behavioral COVID-19 containment measures and socio-economic wellbeing of employees of Uasin Gishu County Government. Behavioural measures such as lock down highly disrupted businesses’ sourcing and distribution functions, which in turn affected the socio-economic wellbeing of the local population. The study recommended that financial organizations should offer trainings to the masses to embrace saving and empower them to participate in multiple economic activities; this would ensure that in any of any occurrences such as COVID 19, the businesses would have the resilience to cope.

The dynamic connectedness between macroeconomic uncertainty and commodity volatility: evidence from China

ABSTRACT We investigate the dynamic connectedness between Chinese macroeconomic uncertainty and volatility in Chinese commodity markets, controlling for international macroeconomic uncertainty, international commodities and Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU), and adopting an approach that combines the Diebold – Yilmaz connectedness measure with the time-varying VAR model. Our empirical results indicate that Chinese macroeconomic uncertainty was the main net transmitter of the commodities commonly used in manufacturing, such as chemical engineering materials and non-ferrous metal, over the whole sample period, and had a considerable impact on these commodities due to the production shutdown caused by COVID-19 containment measures. This indicates the important role of Chinese macroeconomic uncertainty on the supply and demand sides. As China is the largest manufacturing country, macroeconomic uncertainty in this nation has had a significant and increasing influence on international commodities, especially when there occur events that severely affect global production activity. However, the impacts of EPUs on commodity volatilities were limited compared with the effects of Chinese macroeconomic uncertainty, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrating that macroeconomic uncertainty, which reflects uncertainty about future aggregate supply and demand, plays a more crucial role in driving the volatility of commodities with stronger production attributes.

Long-term care needs and the risk of household poverty across Europe: a comparative secondary data study

PurposePopulation ageing and rising poverty are two of the most pressing issues today, even in Western European nations, growing as a result of the recent global economic crisis and the COVID-19 containment measures. This study explores the relationship between long-term care (LTC) needs and risk of poverty at household level in eight European countries, representing the different European care regimes.MethodsThe main international databases were scoured for study variables, categorized according to the following conceptual areas: home care, residential care, health expenditure, service coverage, cash benefits, private services, population, family, education, employment, poverty, disability and care recipients, and life expectancy. We initially identified 104 variables regarding 8 different countries (Austria, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Poland, Romania). Statistical analyses were conducted as described hereafter: analysis of the Pearson’s Bivariate Correlation between the dependent variable and all other variables; a Multivariable Linear Regression Model between the Poverty Index (dependent variable) and the covariates identified in the preceding step; a check for geographical clustering effects and a reduced Multivariable Linear Regression Model for each identified European cluster.ResultsThe variables that addressed the risk of poverty pertained to the area of policy intervention and service provision. Rising private out-of-pocket health expenditures and proportion of “poor” couples with at least one child are two factors that contributed significantly to poverty increasing. Moreover, rising private out-of-pocket health expenditures for covering LTC needs (even in presence of public financial contribution to the family) is the main contributor to household poverty increasing in presence of ADL disability.ConclusionThe results reveal the existence of a clear correlation between the need for LTC and the risk of poverty in households across Europe. These results highlight the central relevance of LTC policies, which are often still treated as marginal and sectoral, for the future sustainability of integrated care strategies.

Early-childhood body mass index and its association with the COVID-19 pandemic, containment measures and islet autoimmunity in children with increased risk for type 1 diabetes

Aims/hypothesisThe aim of this study was to determine whether BMI in early childhood was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures, and whether it was associated with the risk for islet autoimmunity.MethodsBetween February 2018 and May 2023, data on BMI and islet autoimmunity were collected from 1050 children enrolled in the Primary Oral Insulin Trial, aged from 4.0 months to 5.5 years of age. The start of the COVID-19 pandemic was defined as 18 March 2020, and a stringency index was used to assess the stringency of containment measures. Islet autoimmunity was defined as either the development of persistent confirmed multiple islet autoantibodies, or the development of one or more islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes. Multivariate linear mixed-effect, linear and logistic regression methods were applied to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and the stringency index on early-childhood BMI measurements (BMI as a time-varying variable, BMI at 9 months of age and overweight risk at 9 months of age), and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the effect of BMI measurements on islet autoimmunity risk.ResultsThe COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increased time-varying BMI (β = 0.39; 95% CI 0.30, 0.47) and overweight risk at 9 months (β = 0.44; 95% CI 0.03, 0.84). During the COVID-19 pandemic, a higher stringency index was positively associated with time-varying BMI (β = 0.02; 95% CI 0.00, 0.04 per 10 units increase), BMI at 9 months (β = 0.13; 95% CI 0.01, 0.25) and overweight risk at 9 months (β = 0.23; 95% CI 0.03, 0.43). A higher age-corrected BMI and overweight risk at 9 months were associated with increased risk for developing islet autoimmunity up to 5.5 years of age (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.01, 1.32 and HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.00, 2.82, respectively).Conclusions/interpretationEarly-childhood BMI increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and was influenced by the level of restrictions during the pandemic. Controlling for the COVID-19 pandemic, elevated BMI during early childhood was associated with increased risk for childhood islet autoimmunity in children with genetic susceptibility to type 1 diabetes.Graphical