Coupled Model Research Articles

Simulation of the future evolution track of “production–living–ecological” space in coastal cities based on multimodel coupling and wetland protection scenarios

Coastal cities hold a special position in the fields of production, living, and ecological research because of their unique wetland resource advantages. However, with global urbanization and rapid economic development, conflicts among production, living and ecological land are prevalent in coastal cities in the process of maintaining sustainable wetland resources and further developing the social economy. By establishing an SD-PLUS-CCD coupling model, this paper analysed the evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of the production–living–ecological space (PLES) and the effects of wetland protection (WLP) on promoting or inhibiting the coordinated development of the PLES in Dongying city during 2005–2060. The results show that (1) from 2005 to 2020, the increase in urban population resulted in a significant transfer of arable land and a reduction of 914 km2 in production space (PS); (2) from 2020 to 2060, under the WLP scenario, the conversion of wetland ecological space will reduce the PS and living space (LS) by 193.92 km2 and 107.14 km2, respectively, and increase the ecological space (ES) by 327.52 km2; and (3) wetland protection has an inhibitory effect on the coordinated development of PLES in the study area, and the total proportion of noncoordinated areas of PE and living–ecological space will continue to increase during the simulation period. This paper provides a solid theoretical support for the sustainable management and protection of wetlands in coastal cities and possible PLES conflict patterns and provides a scientific basis for future territorial spatial planning and policy balance analysis.

Coupled Modeling and Design Principles of Limited-Angle Vibration Motors for High-Frequency Reciprocating Rotation

Coupled Modeling and Design Principles of Limited-Angle Vibration Motors for High-Frequency Reciprocating Rotation

Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Dominates the Reproduction of Circumglobal Teleconnection Pattern: A Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Abstract The zonal wavenumber-5 circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern is one of the most critical atmospheric teleconnection patterns during boreal summer over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). CGT can exert significant climatic impact across NH including Europe, East Asia, and North America, but how reliable coupled climate models simulate the characteristics of CGT is poorly understood. Here, 20 coupled models with their respective versions in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and CMIP6 are selected to evaluate their performance on CGT simulation. We find that while both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are able to capture the basic features of CGT in multimodel mean (MMM), there are large intermodel discrepancies in the simulation of CGT pattern among CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. High-skill models exhibit strong action center over west-central Asia, coinciding with the pattern derived from reanalysis, while the corresponding action center in low-skill models is weaker. Further analyses demonstrate that high-skill models are capable of simulating more realistic Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation anomalies related to CGT. The resultant anomalous upper-tropospheric divergence over west-central Asia, acting as a Rossby wave source, can therefore excite the abovementioned action center. This high- and low-skill model difference on CGT–ISM relationship is consistent in both CMIP5 and CMIP6. It is also found that high-skill models tend to simulate more realistic CGT–ENSO relationship. The relationship between simulation skills of CGT–ENSO correlation and CGT spatial pattern is attributed to the remote impact of ENSO on CGT wave train through affecting ISM precipitation anomalies.

Research and Practice on EOR Development Strategy of Water Drive Followed by Gas Drive in Fractured Carbonate Reservoir in Bohai Sea

Abstract Focusing on the issues of high comprehensive water cut and low recovery degree following water flooding in the CFD 2-2 carbonate buried hill reservoir in the Bohai Sea, the productivity variation law, water cut rising characteristics and development effect of horizontal wells were analyzed based on different types of reservoir classification systems. The reservoir numerical simulation model of dual media coupling of matrix and fracture is established, and the analysis is done on the matrix and fracture production state, the distribution pattern of the residual oil, and the primary governing parameters.. The physical simulation experiment of water flooding to gas flooding is carried out. In conjunction with the distribution characteristics of fractures and matrix residual oil in low, middle and upper tiers of the framework, the development strategy of nitrogen injection pressure water cone in low water-flooded area, nitrogen flooding in middle inter-well residual oil enrichment area and nitrogen huff and puff in high well point residual oil enrichment area is put forward. The recovery rate is increased by 5-8 %, which successfully enhances the high water cut stage development effect, and provides reference for similar oilfield development.

Coupled Hydrogeophysical Modeling to Constrain Unsaturated Soil Parameters for a Slow‐Moving Landslide

AbstractGeophysical methods have proven to be useful for investigating unstable slopes as they are both non‐invasive and sensitive to the spatial distribution of physical properties in the subsurface. Of particular interest are the links between electrical resistivity and near‐surface moisture content; recent work has demonstrated that it is possible to calibrate hydrological models using geophysical measurements. In this study we explore the use of in‐field electrical resistivity data for calibrating unsaturated soil retention parameters and saturated hydraulic conductivity used for modeling unsaturated fluid flow. We study a synthetic case study, and a well‐characterized site in the northeast of England and develop an approach to calibrate retention parameters for a mudstone and a sandstone formation, the former being an actively failing unit. Petrophysical relationships between electrical resistivity and moisture content (or saturation) are established for both formations. 2D hydrological models are driven by effective rainfall estimations; subsequently these models are coupled with a geophysical forward model via a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. For the synthetic case, we show that our modeling approach is sensitive to the moisture retention parameters, while less so to saturated hydraulic conductivity. We observe the same characteristics and sensitivities for the field case, albeit with a greater data misfit. Further hydrological simulations suggest that the slope retained high moisture contents in the months preceding a rotational failure. Therefore, we propose that coupled hydrological and geophysical modeling approaches could aid in enhancing landslide monitoring, modeling, and early warning efforts.

Coupled CFD modeling and thermal analysis of multi-layered insulation structures in liquid hydrogen storage tanks for various vapor-cooled shields

The present study aims to propose a coupled numerical model for analyzing the influence of the configuration of the vapor-cooled shield tubes on insulation performance. The numerical model is developed to calculate the effective thermal conductivity of multi-layer insulation (MLI) and rigorously evaluated. Specifically, the tank evaporation simulation software BoilFAST is manually coupled with the CFD commercial software of ANSYS FLUENT (2020 R2) to accurately determine the mass flow rate and temperature of boil-off gas in a tank, which is then used as inputs for the CFD simulations. This coupling methodology can be used for reliable calculations of boil-off losses for liquid hydrogen and heat transfer inside the MLI structures. Results demonstrate that the estimated effective thermal conductivity agrees with the earlier published data and that increasing the diameter and number of tubes enhances heat exchange between the VCS tubes and MLI structures. Also, the heat flux into the tank is relatively reduced by 32.04 % by increasing the diameter of the tube and 49.14 % by adding the number of tubes. Moreover, the maximum temperature difference of the VCS is estimated to be less than 1 K, indicating nearly uniform distributions of the VCS.

A New Coupled Biogeochemical Modeling Approach Provides Accurate Predictions of Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Wetlands

AbstractTidal wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services, including storing large amounts of carbon. However, the net exchanges of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. While several biogeochemical models can operate in tidal wetlands, they have yet to be parameterized and validated against high‐frequency, ecosystem‐scale CO2 and CH4 flux measurements across diverse sites. We paired the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model (CMEM) with a version of the PEPRMT model called PEPRMT‐Tidal, which considers the effects of water table height, sulfate, and nitrate availability on CO2 and CH4 emissions. Using a model‐data fusion approach, we parameterized the model with three sites and validated it with two independent sites, with representation from the three marine coasts of North America. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) modules explained, on average, 73% of the variation in CO2 exchange with low model error (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <1). The CH4 module also explained the majority of variance in CH4 emissions in validation sites (R2 = 0.54; nRMSE = 1.15). The PEPRMT‐Tidal‐CMEM model coupling is a key advance toward constraining estimates of greenhouse gas emissions across diverse North American tidal wetlands. Further analyses of model error and case studies during changing salinity conditions guide future modeling efforts regarding four main processes: (a) the influence of salinity and nitrate on GPP, (b) the influence of laterally transported dissolved inorganic C on Reco, (c) heterogeneous sulfate availability and methylotrophic methanogenesis impacts on surface CH4 emissions, and (d) CH4 responses to non‐periodic changes in salinity.

Coupled 3D non-orthogonal constitutive model for woven composites in preforming and compaction processes

Woven composites are considered promising for lightweight applications with great environmental and economic benefits. One of the most promising techniques for mass-production of woven composite parts with complex geometry is closed-mold thermoforming including preforming, compaction/consolidation and curing steps. The ignored effects on non-uniform thickness deformation and compaction modulus caused by preforming are considered in the coupled 3D non-orthogonal constitutive model to capture the coupled material behaviors during preforming and compaction. The in-plane tension, compression and shear modulus in the model are calibrated using tension, bending and bias-extension experiments, respectively. Meanwhile, the out-plane compaction experiments are designed, with high-accuracy measurement method for the initial thickness and deformation process, to obtain the material properties of sheared woven composites. These experiments can be regarded as one benchmark for compaction tests of woven composites. The new material model has been implemented in Abaqus software and validated by the bias-extension experiments.

A Coupled Spatial-Network Model: A Mathematical Framework for Applications in Epidemiology.

There is extensive evidence that network structure (e.g., air transport, rivers, or roads) may significantly enhance the spread of epidemics into the surrounding geographical area. A new compartmental modeling framework is proposed which couples well-mixed (ODE in time) population centers at the vertices, 1D travel routes on the graph's edges, and a 2D continuum containing the rest of the population to simulate how an infection spreads through a population. The edge equations are coupled to the vertex ODEs through junction conditions, while the domain equations are coupled to the edges through boundary conditions. A numerical method based on spatial finite differences for the edges and finite elements in the 2D domain is described to approximate the model, and numerical verification of the method is provided. The model is illustrated on two simple and one complex example geometries, and a parameter study example is performed. The observed solutions exhibit exponential decay after a certain time has passed, and the cumulative infected population over the vertices, edges, and domain tends to a constant in time but varying in space, i.e., a steady state solution.

Integrating the Safety Control Against Cyber-Attacks on the Global Information in Coupled Map Car-Following Model Under Connected Vehicles Platoon Environment

Integrating the Safety Control Against Cyber-Attacks on the Global Information in Coupled Map Car-Following Model Under Connected Vehicles Platoon Environment

Laser-initiated electron and heat transport in gold-skutterudite CoSb3 bilayers resolved by pulsed x-ray scattering

Abstract Electron and lattice heat transport have been investigated in bilayer thin films of gold and CoSb3 after photo-excitation of the nanometric top gold layer through picosecond x-ray scattering in a pump-probe setup. The kinetics of heat transfer are detected by thermal lattice expansion and compared to simulations based on the two-temperature model of coupling of electron and phonon degrees of freedom. The unexpected observation of a larger portion of the deposited heat being detected in the underlying CoSb3 layer before the topmost gold layer is heated supports the picture of transport of the photo-excited electrons from gold to the underlying layer to be converted into lattice heat. The change of partition of heat between the gold and CoSb3 layer with laser fluence and wavelength (either exciting intraband transitions or additionally interband transitions) is rooted in the amplitude of electron temperature. Higher electron temperatures result in a longer equilibration time with the lattice and thus a larger proportion of ballistic electron transport across the interface.

Analysis of rapid decompression failure in polymer liner of Type IV hydrogen storage vessels using a novel fluid–solid coupling model

Type IV vessels have been developed for hydrogen storage systems, but the rapid decompression failure during the decompression process can lead to the collapse of the liner, significantly reducing the lifespan of the vessels. This study aims to investigate nonlinear buckling behaviors and collapse mechanisms of polymer liner in Type IV hydrogen storage vessels. Considering the intrinsic coupling between hydrogen gas depletion and mechanical behavior of vessels, a fluid–solid coupling model was proposed using the fluid cavity techniques and HyperMesh. Results indicated that the pressure difference generated on the liner is the primary cause leading to the polymer liner collapse. The critical pressure difference significantly increases with the thickness of the liner, while it decreases nonlinearly with the increase in void defect size. Parametric sensitivity analysis highlighted the depth of initial void defect and the liner thickness as two significant influencing factors in the critical decompression rate.

Improving thermal environment and ventilation efficiency in high-temperature excavation tunnels via an innovative heat insulation and cooling baffle

An increasing number of tunnels inevitably encounter high-temperature environments induced by elevated geotemperatures. The energy demand for ventilation and cooling in excavation tunnels increases significantly as the temperature of the surrounding rock increases, thereby hindering the sustainable exploitation of deep resources. This paper presents an optimization method for airflow organization in excavation tunnels that integrates thermal insulation and cooling (TIC) baffles. The proposed approach significantly improves the cooling effect of the auxiliary ventilation system while reducing energy consumption. This method offers the advantages of simplicity, convenience, and cost-effectiveness. A multifield coupling model using COMSOL software was developed and validated to analyze the system, and the application scenario was explored. Several ventilation scenarios were examined, highlighting that TIC baffles effectively reduce the heat release from the surrounding rock and lower the airflow temperature in personnel areas in the excavation tunnel. By implementing TIC baffles, the average airflow temperature in the excavation tunnel decreases by 1.5 °C to 1.8 °C, resulting in a saving of approximately 5.11 kW in cooling energy. Increasing the circulating water flow in the heat-exchange pipe of the TIC baffles or reducing the initial circulating water temperature can enhance the cooling capacity of the TIC baffles and lower the tunnel airflow temperature to a certain extent. The distance between the TIC baffles and surrounding rock significantly affects the airflow temperature between the left and right TIC baffles. An excessive length of TIC baffles (L > 7 m) leads to heat accumulation and high-temperature airflow in localized areas. In This study, a method for optimizing the thermal environment and saving energy in high-temperature excavation tunnels is proposed.

Numerical Investigation of coupling hazard zone of coal spontaneous combustion and gas in gob for high-gas mines

As coal mining operations continue to deepen, the frequency of coal spontaneous combustion (CSC) and gas explosion disasters in high-gas mines is increasing. Understanding the distribution patterns of CSC and gas compound disaster zones in the gob during the extraction process is crucial for reducing the risks of combustion and explosion. This study focuses on the 201 working face of the Shuanglong Coal Mine, where a multi-physical field coupling model of pressure, temperature, gas seepage, and diffusion was established to investigate the evolution characteristics of compound disaster zones and propose corresponding prevention and control measures. The results demonstrate that the area with the most severe composite hazard is mainly located at the return roadway side, extending to the middle of the gob. With increased ventilation volume and advance rate, the area of the CSC and gas coupling hazard zone expands continuously. By implementing measures such as brattice cloth and nitrogen injection, the areas of spontaneous combustion and CH4 explosion zones were reduced by 53.6 % and 49.5 %, respectively, effectively controlling the extent of the compound disaster zone and eliminating the risk of gas explosions.

Description and Evaluation of the CNRM‐Cerfacs Climate Prediction System (C3PS)

AbstractThe CNRM‐Cerfacs Climate Prediction System (C3PS) is a new research modeling tool for performing climate reanalyzes and seasonal‐to‐multiannual predictions for a wide array of Earth system variables. C3PS is based on the CNRM‐ESM2‐1 model including interactive aerosols and stratospheric chemistry schemes as well as terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry enabling a comprehensive representation of the global carbon cycle. C3PS operates through a seamless coupled initialization for the atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemistry components that allows a continuum of predictions across seasonal to multiannual time‐scales. C3PS has also contributed to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP‐A) as part of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here we describe the main characteristics of this novel Earth system‐based prediction platform, including the methodological steps for obtaining initial states to produce forecasts. We evaluate the entire C3PS initialization procedure with the most up‐to‐date observations and reanalyzes over 1960–2021, and we discuss the overall performance of the system in the light of the lessons learned from previous and actual prediction platforms. Regarding the forecast skill, C3PS exhibits comparable seasonal predictive skill to other systems. At the multiannual scale, C3PS shows significant predictive skill in surface temperature during the first 2 years after initialization in several regions of the world. C3PS also exhibits potential predictive skill in Net primary production (NPP) and carbon fluxes several years in advance. This expands the possibility of applications of forecasting systems, such as the possibility of performing multiannual predictions of marine ecosystems and carbon cycle.

A fully adaptive time–frequency coupling model using self-attention mechanism based on deep operator network for very short-term forecasting of ship motion

Very short-term ship motion forecasting aims to predict future movements using historical ship motion data. While ship motion features both temporal and frequency characteristics, the latter is often neglected. This paper proposes a fully adaptive time–frequency coupling forecasting model using self-attention mechanism based on the Deep Operator Network (DeepONet), abbreviated as TFD. The multi-head attention layers enable the trunk net to adaptively learn the relationships between different frequencies in the frequency domain and assign varying weights accordingly. Thus, compared to the Fourier transform and multilayer perceptron-net enhance model based on DeepONet (FMD), which relies on manually specified filter frequencies, the TFD model is capable of fully learning the motion patterns in both the time and frequency domains, establishing nonlinear mapping relationships between them. It exhibits greater interpretability and generalization. The TFD model is tested for accuracy and generalization using ship motion data from the Iowa University experimental tank. The results indicate that, compared to the DeepONet and FMD, the TFD model reduces the mean square error (MSE) by up to 64.72% and 52.45%, with an average reduction of 55.57% and 42.47%. In terms of generalization, the forecasting MSE is reduced by up to 65.04% and 46.08%. Compared to the DeepONet and FMD, the proposed TFD model demonstrates significant improvements in forecasting horizon and generalization, providing a notable advantage in very short-term ship motion prediction applications.

Borehole Stability of Natural Gas Hydrate Reservoirs

Abstract The decomposition of natural gas hydrate (NGH) due to long-term drilling may decrease the strength of reservoirs and increase the borehole failure risk. Meanwhile, the creep properties of NGH reservoirs also may give rise to engineering problems including borehole shrinkage and jamming of drilling tools in the late stage of drilling, which seriously impairs the drilling safety. A thermal-fluid-solid multi-field coupling model considering the decomposition kinetics of NGH and creep properties of reservoirs was established to explore the influence mechanism of NGH decomposition and creep properties of hydrate-bearing sediments on mechanical behaviors of boreholes. In addition, influences of drilling parameters and geomechanical properties of reservoirs on borehole stability in the drilling process of NGH reservoirs were analyzed. Research results show that creep properties of NGH deposits causes homogenization of stress distribution in different directions of NGH reservoirs around boreholes, transition of plastic zones around boreholes to a round shape, and possibly overall borehole collapse. As the horizontal geostress becomes more inhomogeneous, the borehole instability risk increases; the higher the initial pore pressure of formation is, the lower the effective geostress and the lower the borehole instability risk. The research results can provide theoretical support for safe drilling of NGH reservoirs in South China Sea and promote the early commercial exploitation of NGH resources in China.

A compressible semi-resolved computational fluid dynamics-discrete element method coupling model for fluid–solid systems with heat transfer

A compressible semi-resolved computational fluid dynamics-discrete element method coupling model for fluid–solid systems with heat transfer

Drought risk assessment on arid region under different socioeconomic scenarios: A case of Loess Plateau, China

Quantitative understanding of drought risks on arid region is vital in drought risk mitigation and ecological restoration. However, no study has been conducted on the drought risk variance between different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios and China’s dual carbon goals scenario on arid region. This study evaluates drought risks of Loess Plateau between the year of 1980–2100 based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 data sets and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction drought risk assessment framework. The average values of the drought risk index in four scenarios during the projection period (2030–2100) are 0.29 (±0.026) for the low carbon emission scenario, 0.257 (±0.019) for the China’s dual carbon target scenario, 0.232 (±0.057) for the medium carbon emission scenario, and 0.248 (±0.059) for the high carbon emission scenario, which are higher than the historical period (i.e. 1980: 0.210; 2020: 0.215). Accordingly, the Loess Plateau will have severe drought risks in the future. In the zone of increased drought risk indices on the Loess Plateau, the areas of woodland and croplands increased, whereas the area of grasslands increased in the zone of decreased drought risk indices. China’s dual carbon goals (i.e. SSP1-2.6) scenario has the smallest degree of variability in drought risk, which is the most reliable pathway of across the four scenarios. We emphasize the potential of spatial planning based on regional characteristics and creating ecological buffer zones for endemic biome habitats to address the uncertainty of drought risk in arid and semi-arid regions like the Loess Plateau.

Emergency constraint-based CMIP6 predictions for future droughts on the Mongolian Plateau

Accurate predictions of future drought changes in the context of warming play an important role for both human social and ecological environments. This study aims to predict future droughts on the Mongolian Plateau using the latest Coupled Model Comparison Project dataset. First, the historical and future relationships of 17 Global Climate Models (GCMs) were constrained using the emergent constraints method to establish new predictions for future droughts under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Based on two scenarios, spatial and temporal variations of future droughts on the Mongolian Plateau were analyzed. Future droughts will be worse compared to historical periods. In the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the future drought intensity shows an increasing trend, the frequency of drought gradually increases, and the spatial variation of both decreases gradually from the southwest to the northeast. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the intensity and frequency of droughts increases from 2020 to 2060; from 2061 to 2100, the intensity and frequency of droughts show a decreasing trend. The spatial variation is uniform, with high values in the southwest and low values in the northeast.