Cougar Population Research Articles

Habitat suitability and protected area coverage for an expanding cougar Puma concolor population in Canada.

Successful conservation of expanding large carnivore populations and management of human-wildlife conflict to promote coexistence requires sufficient spatiotemporal knowledge to inform appropriate action. In Canada, cougars (Puma concolor) are expanding their range eastwards and little research is available for use in decision making by land managers and conservation planners. To inform proactive management regarding expanding populations of cougars in Canada, we utilized open-source cougar presence and land-cover data in a maximum entropy habitat suitability model to determine potentially suitable habitat for cougars across the country. We then used a gap analysis to determine the effectiveness of existing formal protected areas to protect potential cougar habitat. Suitable habitat exists for range-expanding cougars dispersing eastwards through the central and eastern provinces to the Atlantic coast. While the habitat is highly fragmented, the highest suitability occurs in areas of medium road density, indicating that the potential for new human-cougar conflict will likely involve residents of exurban and rural areas. Protected areas offered 16% coverage of suitable habitat, although most protected areas that overlap predicted cougar habitat are not large enough to effectively conserve the large home range requirements of cougars. Synthesis and Applications: High fragmentation of suitable habitat and the potential for human-wildlife conflict requires proactive management to ensure appropriately sized and connected areas are maintained for the establishment of expanding cougar populations. Many of the management actions intended to aid in the conservation of cougars and their habitat can also serve to mitigate potential human-cougar conflict arising as a consequence of an expanding population, such as highway wildlife crossing structures and formal habitat protection.

Native prey, not landscape change or novel prey, drive cougar (Puma concolor) distribution at a boreal forest range edge.

Many large carnivores, despite widespread habitat alteration, are rebounding in parts of their former ranges after decades of persecution and exploitation. Cougars (Puma concolor) are apex predator with their remaining northern core range constricted to mountain landscapes and areas of western North America; however, cougar populations have recently started rebounding in several locations across North America, including northward in boreal forest landscapes. A camera-trap survey of multiple landscapes across Alberta, Canada, delineated a range edge; within this region, we deployed an array of 47 camera traps in a random stratified design across a landscape spanning a gradient of anthropogenic development relative to the predicted expansion front. We completed multiple hypotheses in an information-theoretic framework to determine if cougar occurrence is best explained by natural land cover features, anthropogenic development features, or competitor and prey activity. We predicted that anthropogenic development features from resource extraction and invading white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virgianius) explain cougar distribution at this boreal range edge. Counter to our predictions, the relative activity of native prey, predominantly snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus), was the best predictor of cougar occurrence at this range edge. Small-bodied prey items are particularly important for female and sub-adult cougars and may support breeding individuals in the northeast boreal forest. Also, counter to our predictions, there was not a strong relationship detected between cougar occurrence and gray wolf (Canis lupus) activity at this range edge. However, further investigation is recommended as the possibility of cougar expansion into areas of the multi-prey boreal system, where wolves have recently been controlled, could have negative consequences for conservation goals in this region (e.g. the recovery of woodland caribou [Rangifer tarandus caribou]). Our study highlights the need to monitor contemporary distributions to inform conservation management objectives as large carnivores recover across North America.

Disease Surveillance of Cougars (Puma concolor) in Utah, USA.

Adult, free-ranging cougars (Puma concolor) were sampled in three regions of Utah, US, from 2018 to 2021. A total of 68% (23/34) of the sampled cougars had antibodies to feline parvovirus, 15% (5/33) to canine distemper virus, 18% (6/34) to calicivirus, and 22% (8/37) to Yersinia pestis. Forty-one percent (13/32) had IgG antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii and 6% (2/33) to feline immunodeficiency virus, and 3% (1/32) were positive for Dirofilaria immitis (heartworm) antigen. All were seronegative for Toxoplasma gondii IgM, feline enteric coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, feline leukemia virus, feline herpesvirus, and Francisella tularensis. Tapeworms and Toxascaris leonina eggs were detected in the feces. The disease exposures detected were similar to what has been reported from cougar populations in other western US states, and the current level of exposures is unlikely to have a negative impact on the state's population.

Tangible Power Loss Dwindling by Canadian Yukon Cougar Optimization Algorithm

In this paper Canadian Yukon Cougar Optimization Algorithm is applied to solve the power loss lessening problem. Natural deeds of Canadian Yukon Cougar are imitated to model the Canadian Yukon Cougar optimization algorithm. Both male and female Canadian Yukon Cougar switch their positions with reference to the conditions. In the initial population superiority and Migrant classification are done. For each Canadian Yukon Cougar fitness value computed. For superiority matured male Canadian Yukon Cougar fight with other male Canadian Yukon Cougars. Succeeded male will be dominant and defeated male Canadian Yukon Cougars will become as Migrant Canadian Yukon Cougars. In Canadian Yukon Cougar population balance will be there at end of iterations, the amount of existing Canadian Yukon Cougar will be controlled. With reference to the Utmost allowed number of every gender in Migrant Canadian Yukon Cougar; the smallest amount fitness value possessed by Migrant Canadian Yukon Cougar will be removed. Rightfulness of the Canadian Yukon Cougar Optimization Algorithm is corroborated in IEEE 30 bus system (with and devoid of L-index). Actual power loss lessening is reached. Proportion of actual power loss lessening is augmented

Cougar use of residential areas and interactions with people in periods of population stability and growth

Abstract The presence of large carnivores close to people poses unique challenges for wildlife managers working to maintain fully functioning ecosystems while simultaneously minimizing potential risks to public safety and private property. In western North America, cougar (Puma concolor) use of residential areas is relatively commonplace and has contributed to undesirable interactions with people. A common assumption is that cougar population growth translates into greater proximity to people and more interactions, but to our knowledge, direct evaluation of this assumption has not occurred. We used GPS telemetry locations and confirmed cougar–human interaction reports to construct single-sex Leslie matrices, utilization distributions, and a two-stage hurdle model within a Bayesian framework to investigate the effects of population trajectory on cougar use of residential areas and interactions with people in the wildland–urban interface of western Washington. We collected data during two time periods with different expected population growth rates, anticipating greater cougar use of residential areas and interaction levels during the period of increased growth. Contrary to our initial expectations, we did not detect meaningful differences in cougar presence in residential areas or number of interactions with humans between study periods. Instead, we documented consistent space use patterns by all demographic classes that seemed to be governed by different life-history strategies. Interactions with humans were largely a function of individual cougar behaviors during both study periods. The consistent presence of abundant, well-connected wildlands coupled with cougar dispersal likely mitigated the potential effects of population trajectory as the increased expected growth rate in Period 2 manifested primarily as subadult emigration via wildlands. We found that a source population does not necessarily translate into greater proximity to people and more interactions. Cougar management in wildland–urban environments would benefit from the application of strategies that address the complex interplay of biological and anthropogenic factors that contribute to cougar presence in residential areas and their likelihood of interacting with people.

Long‐Term Evaluation of Cougar Density and Application of Risk Analysis for Harvest Management

ABSTRACTEstimates of cougar (Puma concolor) density are among the least available of any big game species in North America because of monetary and logistical challenges. Thus, wildlife managers identify cougar density estimates as a high priority need for population estimation, developing harvest guidelines, and evaluating management objectives. Cougar densities range from <1 to almost 7 cougars/100 km2; however, the magnitude of spatial and temporal variation associated with these estimates is difficult to assess because this range of densities could potentially be reported for any given population using different demographic, temporal, durational, and analytical approaches. We used long‐term global positioning system (GPS) data from collared cougars across 5 diverse study areas in Washington, USA, as the basis for calculating multiple annual independent‐aged (≥18 months) cougar densities, using consistent methods, and conducted a meta‐analysis to assist with statewide harvest guidelines. To generate specific harvest guidelines for unobserved populations at the management unit scale, we employed a Bayesian decision‐theoretic approach that minimizes statistical risk of failing to achieve a defined harvest rate. For the 16‐year field effort, we calculated 24 annual densities for independent‐aged cougars. Average annual densities ranged from 1.55 ± 0.44 (SD) cougars/100 km2 (n = 5 years) to 2.79 ± 0.35 cougars/100 km2 (n = 5 years) among the 5 study areas. Explicit delineation of the cougar population demonstrated that contribution to density can vary considerably by sex and age class. Application of a 12–16% harvest rate within the risk analysis framework yielded a potential annual harvest of 249 cougars over 91,000 km2 of cougar habitat in Washington. Given the importance of density for establishing harvest guidelines, and the degree of uncertainty in projecting derived densities to future years and unstudied management units, our approach may lessen the ambiguity of extrapolations and increase the longevity of research results. Our risk analysis can be used for a diverse array of species and management objectives and be incorporated into an adaptive management framework for minimizing management risk. Our recommendations can improve standardization in reporting and interpretation of cougar density comparisons and bring clarity to the sources of variability observed in cougar populations. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.

Effects of wolf and grizzly bear recovery on cougars in the Southern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Within the large carnivore guild, competitively dominant species can limit the population sizes and alter the behavior of subordinate competitors. However, the mechanisms by which dominant competitors affect subordinates are complex and challenging to disentangle, particularly for free ranging large mammals. For my dissertation, I took advantage of a natural experiment and sixteen years of location data from a subordinate carnivore (cougars), two dominant competitors (wolves and grizzly bears), and a shared prey species (elk), as well as kill site data from cougars in the Southern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (SGYE), a multi-use landscape with numerous anthropogenic impacts. My dissertation was an investigation of three mechanisms, both direct and indirect, by which competition from recovering wolves and grizzly bears affected subordinate cougars in a system where human impacts also play strong roles in shaping dynamics. Specifically, I evaluated 1) whether cougar habitat selection changed as wolf and grizzly bear populations recovered and whether these changes could be attributed to cougars actively avoiding dominant competitors; 2) how cougar access to the habitat of its primary prey species was affected by wolf and grizzly bear recovery; and 3) how kleptoparasitism from recovering wolves and grizzly bears – as well as black bears –may have affected the SGYE cougar population. Featured photo by Yellowstone National Park on Flickr (https://flic.kr/p/2n3TNx8).

Estimating Abundance of an Unmarked, Low‐Density Species using Cameras

ABSTRACTEstimating abundance of wildlife populations can be challenging and costly, especially for species that are difficult to detect and that live at low densities, such as cougars (Puma concolor). Remote, motion‐sensitive cameras are a relatively efficient monitoring tool, but most abundance estimation techniques using remote cameras rely on some or all of the population being uniquely identifiable. Recently developed methods estimate abundance from encounter rates with remote cameras and do not require identifiable individuals. We used 2 methods, the time‐to‐event and space‐to‐event models, to estimate the density of 2 cougar populations in Idaho, USA, over 3 winters from 2016–2019. We concurrently estimated cougar density using the random encounter model (REM), an existing camera‐based method for unmarked populations, and genetic spatial capture recapture (SCR), an established method for monitoring cougar populations. In surveys for which we successfully estimated density using the SCR model, the time‐to‐event estimates were more precise and showed comparable variation between survey years. The space‐to‐event estimates were less precise than the SCR estimates and were more variable between survey years. Compared to REM, time‐to‐event was more precise and consistent, and space‐to‐event was less precise and consistent. Low sample sizes made the space‐to‐event and SCR models inconsistent from survey to survey, and non‐random camera placement may have biased both of the camera‐based estimators high. We show that camera‐based estimators can perform comparably to existing methods for estimating abundance in unmarked species that live at low densities. With the time‐ and space‐to‐event models, managers could use remote cameras to monitor populations of multiple species at broader spatial and temporal scales than existing methods allow. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

Increases in Midwestern cougars despite harvest in a source population

ABSTRACTAlthough cougars (Puma concolor) appear to be recolonizing the midwestern United States, there is concern that hunting in source populations (primarily the Black Hills, SD and WY, USA) may prevent cougars from dispersing eastward. We use carcass data of cougars (n =147 carcasses at known locations, of which 111 were of known sex) in the Midwest collected during 1990–2015 to quantify whether cougar hunting in the Black Hills affected cougar distribution and presence in the Midwest. We separated carcass data into 2 time periods: before hunting in the Black Hills (i.e., pre‐hunt; 1990–2004) and after hunting (i.e., post‐hunt; 2005–2015). We hypothesized that if hunting prevented dispersal into the Midwest, cougar distribution would be random and their presence less, relative to the pre‐hunt period. We also were interested in sex ratios of carcasses over time, given the importance of that demographic metric to the potential establishment of viable populations. During the pre‐hunt period, 25 carcasses were dispersed randomly in the Midwest. During the post‐hunt period, we found nearly 4 times the number of carcasses in the Midwest (n = 86), carcasses were significantly clustered, and a greater percentage of carcasses were female (pre‐hunt n = 6 [24%]; post‐hunt n = 27 [31%]). Relative to the pre‐hunt period, we observed a 460‐km northward shift in the directional distribution of carcass locations during the post‐hunt period. These findings do not support the idea that hunting in the Black Hills has prevented cougar presence from increasing in the Midwest. Alternatively, we suggest the potential for immigration from cougar populations farther to the west as an explanation for the increase in cougar presence (particularly females) confirmed after the initiation of cougar hunting in the Black Hills. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.

Less invasive monitoring of cougars in Colorado's front range

ABSTRACTFrom 2014 to 2016, in the Front Range of Colorado, USA, we assessed noninvasive approaches to sampling cougar (Puma concolor) populations in an attempt to provide a new method that would be less field intensive, less expensive, and could be applied over large spatial extents compared with current methods. We assessed the use of predator calls to lure cougars to a site with remote camera traps for detection and also evaluated hair snags at sites to noninvasively identify individual animals. Predator calls effectively attracted cougars to specific sites with an average of 82 unique photographic detections of cougars per survey year (0.03 detections/trap‐night). However, obtaining hair samples from these animals was less effective because animals did not always pass through hair snags and ability to uniquely identify individuals by genotype was poor. We evaluated different approaches to estimating cougar density and found mark–resight to be a viable option in our study system. Mark–resight density estimate after correcting for partial use of the sampling area by cougars was 4.1 cougars/100 km2 (95% CI = 2.4, 5.8). Our results indicate that combining methods of noninvasive genetic sampling and auditory calls to monitor cougar populations can provide reliable density estimates over large geographic areas and areas with significant amounts of inaccessible private lands. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.

Roles of maternal condition and predation in survival of juvenile Elk in Oregon

Roles of maternal condition and predation in survival of juvenile Elk in Oregon

Effects of urbanization on cougar foraging ecology along the wildland–urban gradient of western Washington

AbstractHumans have dramatically altered ecosystem structure through landscape manipulation, often leaving refuge patches of suitable habitat for wildlife amidst inhospitable terrain. Large carnivores are especially vulnerable to such habitat modification because they tend to have low population densities and wide‐ranging movements necessitated by their food requirements. Cougars (Puma concolor), unlike many other large carnivores, have demonstrated an ability to exploit resources in fragmented and managed landscapes. The influence of increasing landscape development on cougar foraging behavior, however, has yet to be fully elucidated. Accordingly, we investigated variation in cougar use of three prey types (synanthropes, ungulates, and rodents) along a wildland–urban gradient in western Washington to determine how urbanization affects the foraging ecology of this apex predator. We predicted that cougar diets would comprise more synanthropic prey (e.g., prolific urban species) and fewer deer as a function of increasing residential development. Generalized linear mixed model results showed that the odds of cougar predation on synanthropic prey did increase with urbanization. The odds of ungulate predation, however, remained relatively consistent across the wildland–urban gradient despite cougar use of black‐tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus columbianus) and elk (Cervus canadensis) increasing over time. These results suggest that cougar–ungulate predator–prey systems can persist in landscapes with substantial human presence. The odds of forest‐associated rodent (Castor sp., Aplodontia sp.) predation decreased with increasing development, suggesting that urbanization may coincide with more intensive beaver management near residences and thereby reduce beaver and mountain beaver presence in exurban landscapes in western Washington. Most cougars exhibited similar diets, but certain individuals deviated significantly from the population averages characterizing use of all three major prey categories. This variation suggests that cougar population responses to urbanization are unlikely to be uniform and that cases of human–cougar conflict may be linked to individual cats, rather than the population as a whole.

Beyond Biosecurity

As boundaries between domesticity and the undomesticated increasingly blur for cohabitants of Vancouver Island, home to North America’s densest cougar population, predatorial problems become more and more pressing. Rosemary-Claire Collard responds on a pragmatic plane, arguing that the encounter between human and cougar is only ever destructive, that contact results in death and almost always for the cougar. Advocating for vigilance in policing boundaries separating cougar from civilization, therefore, she looks to Foucault’s analysis of modern biopower in the first volume of his History of Sexuality for support in favor of a more contemporary notion of biosecurity. In response to Collard’s arguments, concerned with ethical conclusions drawn on the basis of her policy-based proposal, I challenge the prohibition she places on encounter. In the first section, “Becoming Killable,” I address her use of Donna Haraway’s phraseology, and in the second section, “Biological Dangers,” I scrutinize her reading of Foucault, arguing that the appeals she makes distort the mode of argumentation at work for each thinker. The final section, “Facing Cougar, Facing Death,” advocates further ethical possibilities generated on the basis of Foucault’s correlation between overcoming the fear of death and resisting abuses of power with respect to others. My contention is that our transgressing boundaries constructed to separate humanity from the inhumane curtails tendencies toward the marginalization and subjugation of those animal others whose very existence brings us face to face with the fact of our own mortality.

Identifying individual cougars (Puma concolor) in remote camera images – implications for population estimates

Context Several studies have estimated cougar (Puma concolor) abundance using remote camera trapping in conjunction with capture–mark–recapture (CMR) type analyses. However, this methodology (photo-CMR) requires that photo-captured individuals are individually recognisable (photo identification). Photo identification is generally achieved using naturally occurring marks (e.g. stripes or spots) that are unique to each individual. Cougars, however, are uniformly pelaged, and photo identification must be based on subtler attributes such as scars, ear nicks or body morphology. There is some debate as to whether these types of features are sufficient for photo-CMR, but there is little research directly evaluating its feasibility with cougars. Aim We aimed to examine researchers’ ability to reliably identify individual cougars in photographs taken from a camera-trapping survey, in order to evaluate the appropriateness of photo-CMR for estimating cougar abundance or CMR-derived parameters. Methods We collected cougar photo detections using a grid of 55 remote camera traps in north-west Wyoming, USA. The photo detections were distributed to professional biologists working in cougar research, who independently attempted to identify individuals in a pairwise matching process. We assessed the level to which their results agreed, using simple percentage agreement and Fleiss’s kappa. We also generated and compared spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) density estimates using their resultant detection histories. Key results There were no cases where participants were in full agreement on a cougar’s ID. Agreement in photo identification among participants was low (n = 7; simple agreement = 46.7%; Fleiss’s kappa = 0.183). The resultant SECR density estimates ranged from 0.7 to 13.5 cougars per 100 km2 (n = 4; s.d. = 6.11). Conclusion We were unable to produce reliable estimates of cougar density using photo-CMR, due to our inability to accurately photo-tag detected individuals. Abundance estimators that do not require complete photo-tagging (i.e. mark–resight) were also infeasible, given the lack of agreement on any single cougar’s ID. Implications This research suggested that there are substantial problems with the application of photo-CMR to estimate the size of cougar populations. Although improvements in camera technology or field methods may resolve these issues, researchers attempting to use this method on cougars should be cautious.

Evidence of Recent Fine-Scale Population Structuring in South American Puma concolor

Habitat loss and fragmentation are considered the major treats to worldwide biodiversity. Carnivores in particular can be more sensitive to landscape modification due to their low occurrence density and large home ranges. Population structuring of Puma concolor has been already reported as a consequence of extensive human activities in the North American continent. Here, we investigated the occurrence of fine-scale population structuring in the South American cougar population, contrasting two conservation areas immersed in a highly human-fragmented landscape dominated by the presence of sugar cane monoculture, roads, and urbanization, including a series of dams in the Tietê River which enlarges its water body. Seven microsatellites were amplified using non-invasive DNA obtained from fecal samples. We conducted genetic clustering analyses using Bayesian and factorial components. We also performed genetic differentiation analyses by fixation indices (Fst and Dest). Two genetic clusters represented by individuals from each area were found, indicating the occurrence of gene flow reduction between the areas. The intense human-induced landscape modification—which includes the Tietê River water body enlargement, imposing physical barriers to the movement of the individuals—could explain the gene flow reduction. Increasing connectivity among the preserved areas can mitigate such effects, and the creation of corridors or further management actions such as individual translocation to ensure gene flow in the highly-modified landscape may be essential for maintaining the genetic and demographic health of the species and its long-term persistence.

Resource competition and apparent competition in declining mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus)

Resource competition and apparent competition have both been suggested as the cause of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus (Rafinesque, 1817)) decline concurrent with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmerman, 1780)) increase. I tested for both hypotheses by conducting a “press” and “release” experiment in a mule deer, white-tailed deer, and cougar (Puma concolor (L., 1771)) community. If resource competition is causal, then predation should decrease, but other sources of mortality should increase following increased mortality of cougars and release of competing white-tailed deer. If apparent competition is causal, then predation should decrease and mule deer should increase following increased mortality of cougars and release of white-tailed deer. I accepted the apparent competition hypothesis because high mortality of female cougars and cougar population decline was associated with both white-tailed deer and mule deer population growth. Very high mortality of female cougars appeared to result in mule deer population recovery. However, high mortality of male cougars (with increased male immigration) preceding high female mortality appeared to result in sexually segregated prey-switching by females with cubs from abundant white-tailed deer to rare mule deer to avoid sexually selected infanticide. High mortality of resident male cougars may have precipitated the mule deer decline in the first place.

Hunting as a management tool? Cougar-human conflict is positively related to trophy hunting.

BackgroundOverexploitation and persecution of large carnivores resulting from conflict with humans comprise major causes of declines worldwide. Although little is known about the interplay between these mortality types, hunting of predators remains a common management strategy aimed at reducing predator-human conflict. Emerging theory and data, however, caution that such policy can alter the age structure of populations, triggering increased conflict in which conflict-prone juveniles are involved.ResultsUsing a 30-year dataset on human-caused cougar (Puma concolor) kills in British Columbia (BC), Canada, we examined relationships between hunter-caused and conflict-associated mortality. Individuals that were killed via conflict with humans were younger than hunted cougars. Accounting for human density and habitat productivity, human hunting pressure during or before the year of conflict comprised the most important variables. Both were associated with increased male cougar-human conflict. Moreover, in each of five regions assessed, conflict was higher with increased human hunting pressure for at least one cougar sex.ConclusionAlthough only providing correlative evidence, such patterns over large geographic and temporal scales suggest that alternative approaches to conflict mitigation might yield more effective outcomes for humans as well as cougar populations and the individuals within populations.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12898-016-0098-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Assessing temporal genetic variation in a cougar population: influence of harvest and neighboring populations

The geography of the Black Hills region of South Dakota and Wyoming may limit connectivity for many species. For species with large energetic demands and large home ranges or species at low densities this can create viability concerns. Carnivores in this region, such as cougars (Puma concolor), have the additive effect of natural and human-induced mortality; this may act to decrease long-term viability. In this study we set out to explore genetic diversity among cougar populations in the Black Hills and surrounding areas. Specifically, our objectives were to first compare genetic variation and effective number of breeders of cougars in the Black Hills during three harvest regimes: pre (2003–2006), moderate (2007–2010), and heavy (2011–2013), to determine if harvest impacted genetic variation. Second, we compared genetic structure of the Black Hills cougar population with cougar populations in neighboring eastern Wyoming and North Dakota. Using 20 microsatellite loci, we conducted genetic analysis on DNA samples from cougars in the Black Hills (n = 675), North Dakota (n = 113), and eastern Wyoming (n = 62) collected from 2001–2013. Here we report that the Black Hills cougar population maintained genetic variation over the three time periods. Our substructure analysis suggests that the maintenance of genetic variation was due to immigration from eastern Wyoming and possibly North Dakota.

Population viability of recolonizing cougars in midwestern North America

Although cougar (Puma concolor) populations have been absent from most of midwestern North America for >100 years, the combination of long-distance dispersal and a significant increase in presence of cougars in the Midwest since 1990 suggests an eastward range expansion. Building on previous research on potential cougar habitat in the Midwest, we modeled two scenarios that could impact recolonization of cougars (annual harvest of cougars in western populations versus no harvest) in a spatially explicit population viability analysis (PVA). We built a stage-based demographic model for cougars using values for survival and fecundity from 40 years of published literature. We then modeled population viability of cougars in the Midwest for 25 years in RAMAS/GIS. We calculated λ=1.083, and found that our study area comprised 9.6% highly suitable habitat patches for cougars. Our no-harvest model indicated all eight large patches of habitat in the Midwest occupied after 25 years; the harvest scenario found seven of eight large patches occupied. Both models were most sensitive to changes in dispersal rates and distances, and were least sensitive to changes in stage matrix means or deviations. We suggest that cougars are likely to recolonize habitat patches in the Midwest in the next 25 years, regardless of current harvest pressure. Our study is an important step forward in understanding cougar potential in the Midwest, as successful conservation and management strategies will require an integrated approach regarding the potential for presence of a large carnivore in the region.

Evaluation of harvest indices for monitoring cougar survival and abundance

ABSTRACTHarvest indices are used by state wildlife management agencies to monitor population trends and set harvest quotas for furbearer species. Although harvest indices may be readily collected from hunters, the reliability of harvest indices for monitoring demography and abundance of the harvested species is rarely examined, particularly amongst large carnivores. The overall objective of this study was to assess whether cougar (Puma concolor) harvest statistics collected by wildlife managers were correlated with changes in cougar demography, mainly survival rates and abundance. We estimated key demographic parameters for 2 cougar populations in Utah over 17 years during which we monitored 235 radio‐collared cougars. We then compared these demographic parameters to harvest statistics provided by the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources over the same time period for the Oquirrh‐Stansbury (lightly harvested population) and Monroe (heavily harvested population) harvest management units. In the Oquirrh‐Stansbury unit, the percent of harvested cougars >6 years old was positively correlated with annual survival, indicative of a population experiencing several years of high survival resulting in an older age structure. Percent of permits filled and cougar abundance were also significantly correlated, suggesting higher hunting success with increased density. In the Monroe management unit, the annual percent of permits filled was correlated with changes in overall annual survival and male and female annual survival. Of utmost importance, pursuit success (cougars treed/day) increased with the number of cougars on the unit suggesting that pursuit indices may be an informative metric for wildlife managers to determine cougar population trends. Because both management units were subjected to contrasting mortality regimes, results provided by this assessment could potentially be applied to additional management areas sharing similar ecological characteristics and harvest metrics. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.