Credible Cost Research Articles

Mars Ascent Propellants and Life Support Resources - Take it or Make it?

Studies of Mars missions over the past thirty years lacked credible cost estimates, so the total mass of materiel delivered to Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) was typically used as a rough measure of relative mission cost because the complexity of the mission was thought to be roughly proportional to the initial mass in LEO (IMLEO). Historically, high launch costs led to large investments in space hardware development which led to high space mission costs. Reducing mass became the central theme of space mission engineering. We are now entering a new era where launch costs no longer have the impact that they would have two decades ago. Launch costs are coming down to the point where we must ask ourselves whether it now makes sense to bring ascent propellants and life support resources from Earth (with higher reliability as a bonus), as opposed to using in situ propellant production and cycling of life support resources. This paper compares various options for bringing ascent propellants and life support resources from Earth vs. developing in situ. In short, it examines the “take it or make it” options for both technologies. For ISPP, the answer is clear: Mars ISPP is not worth the investment when launch costs are low. For life support, the most robust option is to bring life survival resources from Earth, and only use cycling to upgrade the quality of life for the crew.

Politicized Scientists: Credibility Cost of Political Expression on Twitter

Politicized Scientists: Credibility Cost of Political Expression on Twitter

Tripartite Evolutionary Game Study on Decision-making Behavior of Cooperative Development of Agricultural Operation Subjects


 How to give full play to the driving role of the new agricultural business entities to the small farmers, guide the small farmers into the modern agricultural development track, and realize the coordinated development of the agricultural business entities has become an urgent problem to be solved in the construction process of the new agricultural operation system. Therefore, based on evolutionary game theory, this paper constructed a three-party evolutionary game model of "government-new agricultural business entities - small farmers", and got the evolutionary and stable strategy of the three in different situations. And it studied how to promote the coordinated development of the three by Matlab numerical simulation. The results of the game show that: first of all, the decisions of the government, small farmers and new agricultural business entities are all influenced by the government itself and the other two parties, especially the government and small farmers' behavior choice is more sensitive. Second, if the three parties do not share the same direction of action, a series of guiding and supporting policies can still form a sound situation of common governance among the three parties. However, the decision-making of government guidance process has nothing to do with tax revenue and the rewards and punishments of the superior government. The guiding cost and loss of public credibility are the key factors that affect the choice of government behavior. Finally, as rational people, farmers will choose the strategy of "cooperation" only when they are satisfied that their income when participating in cooperation is higher than their own income when not participating in cooperation.

Credible Cost Formation of a Construction Investment Project at the Stage of Design Documentation Development

Introduction. The credible cost formation mechanism of a construction investment project’s life cycle stages is considered. The cost of the project depends on diverse components: the duly designed project, the cost calculation method, the choice of suppliers and contractors, the construction time frame, etc. All calculations are based on the estimated cost of the project made at the design stage.Materials and methods. Transition to the input costing method turns to be an advancement in determining the estimated cost of construction at the design stage. The main problem here is the lack of a unified database providing the data on the cost of resources at the current price level for each region. The proposed solution is transferring the functions of replenishing the Federal State Information System of Pricing in Construction (ФГИС ЦС) database from the Ministry of Construction, Housing and Utilities of the Russian Federation to the regions of Russia.Results. The transition to the input costing method will allow the regions to hold the information on the credible estimated cost of facilities planned to be built in the forthcoming years. The increasing amount of standard design projects will enable solving a number of cost management issues at the design stage. The projects that proved to be successful can be reused many times because all possible errors were debugged, the proposed solutions were tested on the facilities already built. The use of the standard design projects will allow to prepare and verify the project design documentation quicker. The time assigned for designing will reduce and no additional questions will arise in the process of construction. The application of information modeling technologies fosters the projects’ quality enhancement.Discussion and conclusion. The mechanisms proposed by the authors will enable projects’ quality enhancement, reduce the cost and timing of design works, as well as make it possible to determine the credible cost of construction at the design stage, which is the basis for determining the volume of investment and calculating the cost of a facility at the stages of planning and implementation of the project.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Intensity Use of Mobile Banking Islamic Bank

The development of internet users and technology has influenced the banking industry to transform its services towards digital. XYZ Sharia Bank is one of the banks that implements a digital banking service strategy through mobile banking. The purpose of this study is to describe the characteristics of mobile banking users, then analyze what influences the behavioral intentions of users in increasing the intensity of mobile banking use, and provide recommendations for development strategies for Islamic Bank XYZ to increase the intensity of mobile banking use. The results of this study qualitatively indicate that the characteristics of XYZ Islamic Bank mobile banking users are dominated by millennial generation males. XYZ Syariah Bank is the choice for mobile banking services because of its practical and flexible use. In addition to general banking transactions, XYZ Syariah Bank mobile banking is also an option because it provides services to complement people's lifestyles, namely for digital wallet refills, online shopping payments through the marketplace/e-commerce. The results of the research quantitatively indicate that all of the variables studied, namely perceived usefulness, ease of use, interaction needs, perceived risk, perceived cost of use, trustworthiness, credibility, and compatibility with lifestyle and needs have a significant influence on the intensity of using Islamic Bank mobile banking XYZ, where the biggest factor in influencing the intensity of the use of XYZ Islamic Bank's mobile banking is compatibility with lifestyle and needs. Keywords: Digital Banking, Mobile Banking, Intensity of Using, Sharia Bank.

Weighing the options: Service user perspectives on homeless outreach services

On a single night in 2018, over 194,000 individuals experienced unsheltered homelessness across the United States. Homeless outreach programs are often a first point of contact for these individuals, providing essential services, including connecting them to emergency shelter. Guided by the socio-rational choice model, this qualitative study aimed to address two questions: 1) How do experiences with outreach workers affect the way individuals experiencing unsheltered homelessness determine the utility of services offered by outreach programs? 2) What specific factors related to outreach interactions are involved in street homeless individuals’ decision to utilize or reject services from homeless outreach programs? Thirty-eight semi-structured interviews were conducted with street homeless individuals who had experience with homeless outreach in New York City. Interviews were first coded using a template approach followed by the use of a theory-guided approach for further analysis. Five main themes were identified that provided an understanding of individuals’ decision to engage with outreach services: credibility, transparency, offering choices, bureaucracy, and opportunity cost. This study provides insight into unsheltered individuals’ perspectives on homeless outreach workers and programs and offers suggestions for implementing micro- and macro-level changes to better meet the needs of our homeless neighbors.

“Advise and Rule” or “Rule by Advising”: The Changing Nature of the Advisory Jurisdiction of the Constitutional Court of Kosovo

AbstractConstitutional courts play an essential role in authoritatively interpreting constitutions. Oftentimes they go beyond the constitutional text by inventing so-called judge-made law. Their authority to interpret the text covers not only substantive parts but also the clause authorizing their jurisdiction. Such power, namely the power to interpret the limits of their jurisdiction, is often used to intervene in the interpretation of the constitution more vigorously than explicitly authorized. One example is the invention, designation, and development of the advisory jurisdiction by the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Kosovo. On that basis, the Court has, for almost ten years of its existence, pronounced on numerous fundamental issues relating to the governing system, power maps, and entitlements on political authority. The Court developed its advisory jurisdiction in a rather unpredictable and impulsive fashion; however, it steadily revealed its willingness to engage with interpretations that sought to resolve high-stakes issues. Such braveness also had a credibility cost for the Court. The year 2018 marked a major shift in the Court’s interpretation of its own jurisdiction to “advise.” In the Central Election Commission case, it abandoned its previous precedent and commenced a passive, restrained attitude in engaging with the constitutional interpretation on the basis of case or controversy. This Article analyzes the Court’s path and change of course in this cycle.

Measuring the Market Size for Cannabis: A New Approach Using Forensic Economics

Quantifying the market size for cannabis is important given vigorous policy debates about how to intervene in this market. We develop a new approach to measuring the size of the cannabis market using forensic economics. The key insight is that cannabis consumption often requires the use of complementary legal inputs: roll‐your‐own tobacco and rolling papers. The forensic approach specifies how legal and illegal inputs are combined in the production of hand‐rolled cigarettes and cannabis joints. These input relationships, along with market adding‐up conditions, can be used to infer the size of the cannabis market. We provide proof‐of‐concept that this approach can be readily calibrated using: (i) point‐of‐sale data on legal inputs of roll‐your‐own tobacco and rolling papers; (ii) input parameter estimates drawn from a wide‐ranging interdisciplinary evidence base. We implement the approach using data from 2008–9. For those years, the forensic estimates for the UK cannabis market are near double those derived from standard demand‐side approaches. We make precise what drives the measurement gap between methods by establishing the adjustments needed to match estimates from alternative approaches. Our analysis develops an agenda on measurement and data collection that allows for credible cost–benefit analysis of policy interventions in illicit drug markets.

Credibility beyond compliance: Uncertified smallholders in sustainable food systems

This article examines the phenomenon of uncertified producers of otherwise certifiable organic food embedded in value chains whose farm products conform to elevated environmental standards. Having embraced so called “beyond organic” cultivation approaches—including agroecology, biodynamic, and permaculture—producers undertaking restorative ecological practices on their farms are certification worthy, in principle, while remaining either unwilling or unable to pay to upgrade to premium markets, in practice. Confronted with the trade-off between allocating scarce resources to compliance and credibility—producers creating collective public goods may do so at the expense of being able to signal the credibility of their actions as environmental stewards along value chains, as through private, third party certification schemes. Drawing on insights from multiple waves of ethnographic fieldwork conducted in Nicaragua beginning in 2007, I show how this credibility dilemma exacerbates challenges already facing smallholders—including livelihood insecurity, political instability, and environmental degradation—demanding new institutional innovations that effectively lower the cost of credibility. In Nicaragua, peasant associations responded to this challenge by advancing an innovative institutional arrangement—the Grupo de Promocion de Agricultura Ecologica (GPAE) marca de confianza, Group for the Promotion of Ecological Agriculture's trademark of trust—to commercialize fresh produce destined for local consumption and new niche markets via networks of trusted producer communities.

(Invited) Considerations in the Scale-up of Lab-on-Chip and Microfluidics Products

Microfluidics-based products are particularly difficult to transition efficiently from a laboratory concept to a beta product that meets target costs for a consumable. The reasons for this has to do with the complexity of microfluidics products, including the use of multiple manufacturing methods and mixed materials to create complete devices, the integration of reagents and liquids, and the integration of sensors. This presentation will discuss the different manufacturing methods involved in the development of a microfluidic product, and present a road map for the timelines and costs for a model cartridge concept. Of particular interest is to consider the trade-offs in not considering design for manufacture during the later part of the research phase before design lock.This presentation will guide start-ups in asking the right questions and getting the right data to their investors to hit milestones and be on track with a credible cost of goods.

Supplier selection and management in hotel outsourcing: an exploratory study in Ghana

ABSTRACTThe aim of this study is to explore supplier selection and relationship management in hotels in the Accra Metropolis of Ghana. An explorative qualitative multiple case study was employed for the study. The results reveal that supplier identification was through the direct approach, agents/experts search, professional networks, request for proposal and supplier-self reconnaissance. Efficiency and effectiveness, cost of service, supplier credibility and inside knowledge were important in the selection process. The findings also reveal that relationship management was cardinal to safeguarding the buyer-supplier relationship. Contracts, job evaluation, downtime/lead time, supplier trustworthiness and guest comment cards were essential tools used in relationship management. The paper ends with some conclusions and managerial implications for hotel managers.

Conditional nationally determined contributions in the Paris Agreement: foothold for equity or Achilles heel?

ABSTRACTThe Paris Agreement’s success depends on parties’ implementation of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) towards the Paris Agreement’s goals. In these climate action plans, most developing countries make their mitigation and adaptation contributions conditional upon receiving international support (finance, technology transfer and/or capacity building). While provision of support for NDC implementation could enhance equity among countries, the feasibility of NDC implementation might be challenged by the large number of conditional NDCs. This paper addresses the implications of this tension based on an analysis of all 168 NDCs. We find that feasibility is challenged because conditions applied to NDCs are often not well defined. Moreover, the costs of implementing all conditional contributions are too high to be covered by existing promises of support from developed countries, even if the entire annual $100 billion of climate finance were earmarked for NDC implementation. Consistent with principles of equity and the prioritization in the Paris Agreement, a higher proportion of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have conditional NDCs than do other countries. However, differences between the distribution of countries requesting support and those currently receiving support, in particular among middle-income countries, demonstrates potential tensions between feasibility and equity. The article concludes with recommendations on how cost estimates and updated NDCs can be strengthened to ensure support for NDC implementation is targeted more equitably and cost-effectively.Key policy insightsSupport requested by developing countries to implement conditional NDCs far exceeds existing funding pledges.Differences between existing patterns of financial assistance, and those implied by requests under conditional NDCs, mean that supporting NDCs may require a significant shift in provider countries’ priorities for allocating climate finance. This may challenge feasibility.The Paris Agreement’s provisions on prioritizing LDCs and SIDS offer valuable guidance in making difficult choices on allocating support.To increase the likelihood of attracting support, developing countries (assisted by capacity building as needed), should include credible cost estimates in future NDCs and formulate investment plans.By outlining plans to mobilize support in their NDCs, developed countries can reassure developing countries that raising the ambition of NDCs is feasible.

Beliefs and Practices of Canadian and U.S. Physicians Regarding the Use of Probiotics for Gastrointestinal Illnesses

Introduction: Despite the popularity of probiotics with patients, little is known about their utilization and knowledge among Gastroenterologists (GIs) and Family Physicians (FPs). The Canadian Association of Gastroenterology (CAG) developed a needs assessment (NA) to determine utilization and knowledge patterns. Methods: A NA was developed based on the expert opinions and emailed to the members of the CAG, the American College of Gastroenterology (ACG), and other networks of FPs in the US and CAN. Results: A total of 276 physicians, ˜50% from US and CAN, responded to the NA. Respondents were mainly adult GIs (68%), from all “stages of career”, mostly male and from community/private setting, residing in large cities. Most physicians recommend probiotics to their patients (92%-CAN, 85%-US). The top reason for not recommending probiotics was lack of clinical evidence. Among physicians recommending probiotics, a given probiotic was selected based on clinical evidence of efficacy (70%-CAN; 56%-US), or because of a specific strain (44%-CAN; 48%-US). Top information sources were scientific/clinical literatureand clinical guidelines. Choice of a probiotic was determined mostly by clinical data (89%-CAN; 90%-US), followed by cost of probiotics, their stability, manufacturer credibility and manufacturing quality. Probiotics were most commonly recommended for Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS; 77%-CAN; 58%-US), followed by diarrhea (53%-CAN; 46%-US), pouchitis (33%-CAN; 38%-US), and constipation/ulcerative colitis (UC)/dyspepsia (all 5-16%). The actual use of probiotics in patients with specific diseases differed slightly between CAN and US (Table 1). Pills/capsules were the most recommended form of probiotic, mostly containing mixture of bacterial species, followed by Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus.Rationale for recommending probiotics was based equally on personal belief in benefit and scientific evidence; the key exceptions being pouchitis followed by UC, where scientific evidence prevailed. Doctors felt that marketing had little impact (0-6% of all physicians). While most physicians felt fairly or very well informed (53%-CAN; 67%-US), a significant proportion of respondents (30%-CAN, 22%-US) were only somewhat informed. Conclusion: Probiotics are used commonly among GIs and FPs in CAN and US, mainly to treat functional GI disorders. However, knowledge of clinical data and scientific evidence for use of probiotics is discrepant among physicians in both countries.432 Figure 1. n=number of physicians who recommend probiotics for that indication; All results expressed in %.

Analiza wrażliwości zapotrzebowania na aktywa rezerwowe w Polsce w latach 2004–2015

The optimal level of reserve assets varies widely depending on the specifics of the economy’s exposure to and tolerance of external shocks, which explains different reserve assets needs also among economies with similar levels of economic development. Therefore, the level of reserve assets should be considered as a safe level, if it creates sustained reduction in the investor’s risk premium, thereby providing easier and cheaper access to external financing of debt and development, enhancing growth prospects and boosting investment. A scenario analysis of the need for reserve assets in Poland in the years 2004–2015 done in the case of an external shock resulting in a decrease in exports, a partial flight of foreign portfolio investment and the bank-related outflows from Polish banking sector dominated by foreign-owned institutions, confirms the sensitivity of the Polish economy to external shocks and explains its lower credibility and higher cost of capital as compared with other countries of Central and Eastern Europe.

Seeking to bridge Europe’s impending neutron gap

Europe’s primacy in neutron scattering depends on maintaining a network of local and international facilities.

Achieving Sustainable Structural Steel Design by Estimating Fabrication Labor Cost Based on BIM Data

Structural steel is heavily utilized in the construction industry from residential and commercial buildings to oil and gas projects. For steel fabrication companies as suppliers of steel structures, submitting competitive project bids requires substantial knowledge of the company's practices on the shop floor and extensive experience to interpret that into credible cost estimations. Being able to make reliable estimates would contribute to the company's competitiveness in the long run. In this study, the total quantity of worker-hours or man-hours required for each major subdivision of a project is considered as the variable of interest in estimating a steel fabrication project, mainly because of the labor-intensive nature of steel fabrication. In collaboration with a partner company, three years of project data, were collected by matching the company's building information modeling (BIM) system with their labor costing system resulting in over 3,000 records, each representing the quantity takeoff for 46 design features and the worker-hours expended in shop fabrication. Stepwise regression and error analysis are used to recognize the most crucial design features in estimating project worker-hours, allowing discovery of the minimized set of inputs for estimating worker-hours and characterization of the estimation uncertainties. This labor cost estimation benefits estimators and shop production planners in that they can configure labor resources to deploy, schedule shop floor production, and recognize estimates’ associated errors, based on the company's historical data. This study is an example of using BIM data and providing tools for structural engineers to consider steel fabrication and possibly achieve more sustainable designs.

Psilocybin - public available psychodysleptic

Substances of plant origin have been used to induce hallucinations for a long time, in religious ceremonies and rituals as well as in pain relief. Psilocybin and psilocin naturally occur in the fungal genus Psilocybe. Due to the psychedelic effects and relative harmlessness of these substances and the fact that they do not cause physical addiction, psilocybin and psilocin recently have been increasingly replacing synthetic psychodysleptics, such as diethylamide D-lysergic acid. Both compounds as psychoactive substances are illegal, but psilocybin, in addition to psychotropic action, also shows positive effects, which from a medical point of view indicate its therapeutic potential and capacity for use in therapy. However, poisoning by psilocin and its derivatives is still a major clinical and social problem, mainly among young people, which is why quick and reliable identification of these substances is very important. Traditional ways of assigning the sample to a particular taxon, such as morphological and biochemical analysis or palynological and sporological studies, are not very universal and often do not provide clear results. Credibility, high speed and lower cost of DNA analysis make genetic methods more often used to determine the species of fungi. These methods are random amplification of polymorphic DNA (RAPD), amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and high resolution melting (HRM). Moreover, analysis of the regions ITS1 and nLSU was suggested as a valid method for application in the molecular taxonomy of fungi for forensic purposes. Modern methods of identifying psilocybin and psilocin in fungi and biological material are: zone capillary electrophoresis, high performance liquid chromatography, gas chromatography and liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry. The mentioned methods are successfully used for the identification of psychoactive substances in fungi as well as in blood and urine samples.

Application of industrial engineering concepts and techniques to ambient intelligence: a case study

Ambient intelligence (AmI) researchers have primarily come from information engineering, electrical engineering, and medical backgrounds. However, industrial engineering (IE) concepts and techniques are crucial to the sustainable development of the AmI industry. For this reason, two IE concepts and techniques, the planning cycle and cost–benefit analysis, were applied to an AmI system in this study. First, a five-step planning cycle was proposed, according to which a detailed cost–benefit analysis was performed that aggregated objectives on the client side, the server side, and in the AmI system as a whole. A restaurant recommendation system was used to illustrate the proposed methodology. The experimental results showed that the system administrator was able to perform a credible cost–benefit analysis and improve the system performance by using the proposed methodology.

Ad Hoc Network-Based Task Allocation With Resource-Aware Cost Generation for Multirobot Systems

The objective of multirobot task allocation (MRTA) is to assign tasks to robots to minimize the overall cost of task performance. This paper proposes a decentralized MRTA approach considering the robots' residual expendable resources and their limited communication ranges. The proposed approach consists of two algorithms, namely, resource-aware cost generation (RCG) and ad hoc network-based task allocation (ANTA). The RCG algorithm allows each robot to generate a credible cost of task performance considering its residual resources in task planning. The ANTA algorithm constructs the minimal spanning tree network among the robots and determines the robot with the lowest cost for the task through multihop communication in a decentralized manner. The advantages of the proposed approach are minimization of unnecessary task performance cost caused by resource shortage of robots during task execution and the use of an ad hoc network among the robots to allow more robots to participate in the task allocation process. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through computer simulations for multirobot foraging as a test problem.

Waiting for Signaling Quality

When a durable good of uncertain quality is introduced to the market, some consumers strategically delay their buying until the next period, with the hope of learning the unknown quality. I analyze the monopolist's pricing and waiting strategies when consumers have strategic delay incentives. I show when the monopolist offers introductory low prices in pooling equilibria. I also find two types of separating equilibria: one where the high‐type monopolist signals its quality by choosing a different price than the low‐type monopolist in the first period and another where the high‐type monopolist announces the product in the first period and waits to sell only in the second period. Waiting creates a credible cost for signaling; hence, the monopolist uses it as a signaling device.