Impact Of Coronal Mass Ejection Research Articles

Geometry, Kinematics, and Heliospheric Impact of a Large CME-driven Shock in 2017 September

Abstract A powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) occurred on 2017 September 10 near the end of the declining phase of the historically weak solar cycle 24. We obtain new insights concerning the geometry and kinematics of CME-driven shocks in relation to their heliospheric impacts from the optimal, multispacecraft observations of the eruption. The shock, which together with the CME driver can be tracked from the early stage to the outer corona, shows a large oblate structure produced by the vast expansion of the ejecta. The expansion speeds of the shock along the radial and lateral directions are much larger than the translational speed of the shock center, all of which increase during the flare rise phase, peak slightly after the flare maximum and then decrease. The near simultaneous arrival of the CME-driven shock at the Earth and Mars, which are separated by 156.°6 in longitude, is consistent with the dominance of expansion over translation observed near the Sun. The shock decayed and failed to reach STEREO A around the backward direction. Comparison between ENLIL MHD simulations and the multipoint in situ measurements indicates that the shock expansion near the Sun is crucial for determining the arrival or nonarrival and space weather impact at certain heliospheric locations. The large shock geometry and kinematics have to be taken into account and properly treated for accurate predictions of the arrival time and space weather impact of CMEs.

Benchmarking CME Arrival Time and Impact: Progress on Metadata, Metrics, and Events

AbstractAccurate forecasting of the arrival time and subsequent geomagnetic impacts of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth is an important objective for space weather forecasting agencies. Recently, the CME Arrival and Impact working team has made significant progress toward defining community‐agreed metrics and validation methods to assess the current state of CME modeling capabilities. This will allow the community to quantify our current capabilities and track progress in models over time. First, it is crucial that the community focuses on the collection of the necessary metadata for transparency and reproducibility of results. Concerning CME arrival and impact we have identified six different metadata types: 3‐D CME measurement, model description, model input, CME (non)arrival observation, model output data, and metrics and validation methods. Second, the working team has also identified a validation time period, where all events within the following two periods will be considered: 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2012 and January 2015 to 31 December 2015. Those two periods amount to a total of about 100 hit events at Earth and a large amount of misses. Considering a time period will remove any bias in selecting events and the event set will represent a sample set that will not be biased by user selection. Lastly, we have defined the basic metrics and skill scores that the CME Arrival and Impact working team will focus on.

Ultraviolet Observations of Coronal Mass Ejection Impact on Comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko by Rosetta Alice

Abstract The Alice ultraviolet spectrograph on the European Space Agency Rosetta spacecraft observed comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko in its orbit around the Sun for just over two years. Alice observations taken in 2015 October, two months after perihelion, show large increases in the comet’s Lyβ, O i 1304, O i 1356, and C i 1657 Å atomic emission that initially appeared to indicate gaseous outbursts. However, the Rosetta Plasma Consortium instruments showed a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact at the comet coincident with the emission increases, suggesting that the CME impact may have been the cause of the increased emission. The presence of the semi-forbidden O i 1356 Å emission multiplet is indicative of a substantial increase in dissociative electron impact emission from the coma, suggesting a change in the electron population during the CME impact. The increase in dissociative electron impact could be a result of the interaction between the CME and the coma of 67P or an outburst coincident with the arrival of the CME. The observed dissociative electron impact emission during this period is used to characterize the O2 content of the coma at two peaks during the CME arrival. The mechanism that could cause the relationship between the CME and UV emission brightness is not well constrained, but we present several hypotheses to explain the correlation.

The impact of coronal mass ejection on the horizontal geomagnetic fields and the induced geoelectric fields

This work investigates the influence of coronal mass ejection (CME) on the time derivatives of horizontal geomagnetic and geoelectric fields, proxy parameters for identifying GICs. 16 events were identified for the year 2003 from the CORONAS-PHOTON spacecraft. Five of the events (May 29, June 9, October 28, October 29, and November 4) were extensively discussed over four magnetic observatories, were analyzed using the time derivatives of the horizontal geomagnetic (dH/dt) and geoelectric (EH) fields obtained from data of the INTERMAGNET network. It was observed that energy distributions of the wavelet power spectrum of the horizontal geoelectric field are noticed at the nighttime on both 29 May and 9 June 2003 across the stations. Daytime and nighttime intensification of energy distribution of the wavelet power spectrum of the horizontal geoelectric field are observed on both 28 and 29 October 2003 due to strong westward electrojet. The 4 November 2003 event depicts daytime amplification of energy distributions of the wavelet power spectrum across the stations. The highest correlation magnitude is obtained in the event of 4 November 2003 between dH/dt and EH relationships during the intense solar flare of class X 17.4. We observed that the correlation magnitude between dH/dt and EH increases with increase in CME activity. We concluded that the response of the surface impedance model for different stations plays a key role in determining the surface electric field strength, due to large electric field changes at different stations.

Mars Under Primordial Solar Wind Conditions: Mars Express Observations of the Strongest CME Detected at Mars Under Solar Cycle #24 and its Impact on Atmospheric Ion Escape

AbstractAn extremely strong Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) impacted Mars on 12 July 2011, while the Mars Express spacecraft was present inside the nightside ionosphere. Estimated solar wind density and speed during the event are 39 particles cm−3 and 730 km/s, corresponding to nominal solar wind flux at Mars when the solar system was ∼1.1 Ga old. Comparing with expected average atmospheric heavy ion fluxes under similar XUV conditions, the CME impact is found to have no significant effect on the escape rate 3.3 × 1024s−1, with an upper limit at 1025s−1 if the observed tail contraction is not taken into account. On the subsequent orbit, 7 h later after magnetosphere response, fluxes were only 2.4% of average. As such, even under primordial solar wind conditions we are unable to find support for a strong solar wind‐driven ion escape, rather the main effect appears to be acceleration of the escaping ions by ×10–×20 typical characteristic energy.

Thermosphere Global Time Response to Geomagnetic Storms Caused by Coronal Mass Ejections

AbstractWe investigate, for the first time with a spatial superposed epoch analysis study, the thermosphere global time response to 159 geomagnetic storms caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in the solar wind at Earth's orbit during the period of September 2001 to September 2011. The thermosphere neutral mass density is obtained from the CHAMP (CHAllenge Mini‐Satellite Payload) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery Climate Experiment) spacecraft. All density measurements are intercalibrated against densities computed by the Jacchia‐Bowman 2008 empirical model under the regime of very low geomagnetic activity. We explore both the effects of the pre‐CME shock impact on the thermosphere and of the storm main phase onset by taking their times of occurrence as zero epoch times (CME impact and interplanetary magnetic field Bz southward turning) for each storm. We find that the shock impact produces quick and transient responses at the two high‐latitude regions with minimal propagation toward lower latitudes. In both cases, thermosphere is heated in very high latitude regions within several minutes. The Bz southward turning of the storm onset has a fast heating manifestation at the two high‐latitude regions, and it takes approximately 3 h for that heating to propagate down to equatorial latitudes and to globalize in the thermosphere. This heating propagation is presumably accomplished, at least in part, with traveling atmospheric disturbances and complex meridional wind structures. Current models use longer lag times in computing thermosphere density dynamics during storms. Our results suggest that the thermosphere response time scales are shorter and should be accordingly adjusted in thermospheric empirical models.

Geomagnetically Induced Currents: Principles

The geospace, or the space environment near Earth, is constantly subjected to changes in the solar wind flow generated at the Sun. The study of this environment variability is called Space Weather. Examples of effects resulting from this variability are the occurrence of powerful solar disturbances, such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The impact of CMEs on the Earth’s magnetosphere very often greatly perturbs the geomagnetic field causing the occurrence of geomagnetic storms. Such extremely variable geomagnetic fields trigger geomagnetic effects measurable not only in the geospace but also in the ionosphere, upper atmosphere, and on and in the ground. For example, during extreme cases, rapidly changing geomagnetic fields generate intense geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). Intense GICs can cause dramatic effects on man-made technological systems, such as damage to high-voltage power transmission transformers leading to interruption of power supply, and/or corrosion of oil and gas pipelines. These space weather effects can in turn lead to severe economic losses. In this paper, we supply the reader with theoretical concepts related to GICs as well as their general consequences. As an example, we discuss the GIC effects on a North American power grid located in mid-latitude regions during the 13–14 March 1989 extreme geomagnetic storm. That was the most extreme storm that occurred in the space era age.

Predicting the Magnetic Field of Earth-impacting CMEs

Abstract Predicting the impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the southward component of their magnetic field is one of the key goals of space weather forecasting. We present a new model, the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO), for predicting the in situ magnetic field of CMEs. We first simulate a CME using ForeCAT, a model for CME deflection and rotation resulting from the background solar magnetic forces. Using the CME position and orientation from ForeCAT, we then determine the passage of the CME over a simulated spacecraft. We model the CME’s magnetic field using a force-free flux rope and we determine the in situ magnetic profile at the synthetic spacecraft. We show that FIDO can reproduce the general behavior of four observed CMEs. FIDO results are very sensitive to the CME’s position and orientation, and we show that the uncertainty in a CME’s position and orientation from coronagraph images corresponds to a wide range of in situ magnitudes and even polarities. This small range of positions and orientations also includes CMEs that entirely miss the satellite. We show that two derived parameters (the normalized angular distance between the CME nose and satellite position and the angular difference between the CME tilt and the position angle of the satellite with respect to the CME nose) can be used to reliably determine whether an impact or miss occurs. We find that the same criteria separate the impacts and misses for cases representing all four observed CMEs.

Solar storm effects during Saint Patrick's Days in 2013 and 2015 on the Schumann resonances measured by the ELF station at Sierra Nevada (Spain)

AbstractThe effects of solar storms occurring during the days 17 to 19 March 2013 and 2015, St. Patrick's Day intervals, on Schumann resonances (SRs) have been studied. To do this, the experimental data recorded by the Juan Antonio Morente extremely low frequency station located at Sierra Nevada, Spain, have been processed in order to obtain hourly averaged information on the first three resonance modes. Results are compared with monthly averages of the SR data for each hour to detect deviations from the regular behavior. Evidence of significant changes in the peak amplitudes and frequencies of the SRs have been identified in the station's measurements and related to the coronal mass ejection impact in the magnetosphere, detected by in situ plasma measurements onboard spacecraft in the solar wind. However, the complicated nature of the Schumann resonances, dependent on multiple variables and subject to multiple unavoidable interferences (e.g., lightning or human radio sources), in conjunction with the complex magnetosphere‐ionosphere‐atmosphere coupling processes, makes it difficult to conclude that the observed deviations are exclusively due to the solar events mentioned. Results extracted from only two solar events cannot be considered as conclusive, and therefore, independent comparison with results reported by other research would seem advisable in future works on this subject.

CME impact on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

We present Rosetta observations from comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko during the impact of a coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME impacted on 5-6 Oct 2015, when Rosetta was about 800 km from the comet nucleus, \textcolor{black}{and 1.4 AU from the Sun}. Upon impact, the plasma environment is compressed to the level that solar wind ions, not seen a few days earlier when at 1500 km, now reach Rosetta. In response to the compression, the flux of suprathermal electrons increases by a factor of 5-10 and the background magnetic field strength increases by a factor of $\sim$2.5. The plasma density increases by a factor of 10 and reaches 600 cm$^{-3}$, due to increased particle impact ionisation, charge exchange and the adiabatic compression of the plasma environment. We also observe unprecedentedly large magnetic field spikes at 800 km, reaching above 200 nT, which are interpreted as magnetic flux ropes. We suggest that these could possibly be formed by magnetic reconnection processes in the coma as the magnetic field across the CME changes polarity, or as a consequence of strong shears causing Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities in the plasma flow. Due to the \textcolor{black}{limited orbit of Rosetta}, we are not able to observe if a tail disconnection occurs during the CME impact, which could be expected based on previous remote observations of other CME-comet interactions.

Prompt acceleration of magnetospheric electrons to ultrarelativistic energies by the 17 March 2015 interplanetary shock

AbstractTrapped electrons in Earth's outer Van Allen radiation belt are influenced profoundly by solar phenomena such as high‐speed solar wind streams, coronal mass ejections (CME), and interplanetary (IP) shocks. In particular, strong IP shocks compress the magnetosphere suddenly and result in rapid energization of electrons within minutes. It is believed that the electric fields induced by the rapid change in the geomagnetic field are responsible for the energization. During the latter part of March 2015, a CME impact led to the most powerful geomagnetic storm (minimum Dst = −223 nT at 17 March, 23 UT) observed not only during the Van Allen Probe era but also the entire preceding decade. Magnetospheric response in the outer radiation belt eventually resulted in elevated levels of energized electrons. The CME itself was preceded by a strong IP shock whose immediate effects vis‐a‐vis electron energization were observed by sensors on board the Van Allen Probes. The comprehensive and high‐quality data from the Van Allen Probes enable the determination of the location of the electron injection, timescales, and spectral aspects of the energized electrons. The observations clearly show that ultrarelativistic electrons with energies E > 6 MeV were injected deep into the magnetosphere at L ≈ 3 within about 2 min of the shock impact. However, electrons in the energy range of ≈250 keV to ≈900 keV showed no immediate response to the IP shock. Electric and magnetic fields resulting from the shock‐driven compression complete the comprehensive set of observations that provide a full description of the near‐instantaneous electron energization.

MAVEN observations of the response of Mars to an interplanetary coronal mass ejection.

Coupling between the lower and upper atmosphere, combined with loss of gas from the upper atmosphere to space, likely contributed to the thin, cold, dry atmosphere of modern Mars. To help understand ongoing ion loss to space, the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) spacecraft made comprehensive measurements of the Mars upper atmosphere, ionosphere, and interactions with the Sun and solar wind during an interplanetary coronal mass ejection impact in March 2015. Responses include changes in the bow shock and magnetosheath, formation of widespread diffuse aurora, and enhancement of pick-up ions. Observations and models both show an enhancement in escape rate of ions to space during the event. Ion loss during solar events early in Mars history may have been a major contributor to the long-term evolution of the Mars atmosphere.

Theoretical basis for operational ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections

AbstractWe lay out the theoretical underpinnings for the application of the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge‐Enlil modeling system to ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in an operational environment. In such models, there is no magnetic cloud component, so our results pertain only to CME front properties, such as transit time to Earth. Within this framework, we find no evidence that the propagation is chaotic, and therefore, CME forecasting calls for different tactics than employed for terrestrial weather or hurricane forecasting. We explore a broad range of CME cone inputs and ambient states to flesh out differing CME evolutionary behavior in the various dynamical domains (e.g., large, fast CMEs launched into a slow ambient, and the converse; plus numerous permutations in between). CME propagation in both uniform and highly structured ambient flows is considered to assess how much the solar wind background affects the CME front properties at 1 AU. Graphical and analytic tools pertinent to an ensemble approach are developed to enable uncertainties in forecasting CME impact at Earth to be realistically estimated. We discuss how uncertainties in CME pointing relative to the Sun‐Earth line affects the reliability of a forecast and how glancing blows become an issue for CME off‐points greater than about the half width of the estimated input CME. While the basic results appear consistent with established impressions of CME behavior, the next step is to use existing records of well‐observed CMEs at both Sun and Earth to verify that real events appear to follow the systematic tendencies presented in this study.

Testing the estimated hypothetical response of a major CME impact on Earth and its implications to space weather

AbstractThe high‐speed coronal mass ejection (CME), ejected on 23 July 2012, observed by STEREO‐A on the same day as the leading edge of the CME arrived at 1AU was unique both in respect to the observed plasma and magnetic structure and the large solar energetic particle flux that dynamically regulated the shock front. Because of its great intensity, it has been hailed as “Carrington 2” by some, warning that, had that CME been heading toward the Earth, it might have caused a major space weather event. We used the Rice Artificial Neural Network algorithms with the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters measured in situ by STEREO‐A as inputs to infer what the “geoeffectiveness” of that storm might have been. We have also used an MHD model in Open Geospace General Circulation Model to understand the global magnetospheric process in time sequence. We presently show our neural network models of Kp and Dst on our real‐time prediction site: http://mms.rice.edu/realtime/forecast.html. Running this event through our models showed that, in fact, this would have been an exceptional event. Our results show a prediction resulting in a Kp value of 8+, a Dst of nearly −250 nT, but when assumptions about maximum dipole angle tilt and density are made, predictions resulting in Kp of 11− and Dst dipping close to −700 nT are found. Finally, when solar energetic proton flux is included, the Kp and Dst predictions drop to 8− and ≈−625 nT, respectively.

CME front and severe space weather

AbstractThanks to the work of a number of scientists who made it known that severe space weather can cause extensive social and economic disruptions in the modern high‐technology society. It is therefore important to understand what determines the severity of space weather and whether it can be predicted. We present results obtained from the analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar energetic particle (SEP) events, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), CME‐magnetosphere coupling, and geomagnetic storms associated with the major space weather events since 1998 by combining data from the ACE and GOES satellites with geomagnetic parameters and the Carrington event of 1859, the Quebec event of 1989, and an event in 1958. The results seem to indicate that (1) it is the impulsive energy mainly due to the impulsive velocity and orientation of IMF Bz at the leading edge of the CMEs (or CME front) that determine the severity of space weather. (2) CMEs having high impulsive velocity (sudden nonfluctuating increase by over 275 km s−1 over the background) caused severe space weather (SvSW) in the heliosphere (failure of the solar wind ion mode of Solar Wind Electron Proton Alpha Monitor in ACE) probably by suddenly accelerating the high‐energy particles in the SEPs ahead directly or through the shocks. (3) The impact of such CMEs which also show the IMF Bz southward from the leading edge caused SvSW at the Earth including extreme geomagnetic storms of mean DstMP < −250 nT during main phases, and the known electric power outages happened during some of these SvSW events. (4) The higher the impulsive velocity, the more severe the space weather, like faster weather fronts and tsunami fronts causing more severe damage through impulsive action. (5) The CMEs having IMF Bz northward at the leading edge do not seem to cause SvSW on Earth, although, later when the IMF Bz turns southward, they can lead to super geomagnetic storms of intensity (Dstmin) less than even −400 nT.

How severe space weather can disrupt global supply chains

Abstract. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are frequent events that could soon have substantial impacts on electrical grids. Modern society's heavy reliance on these domestic and international networks increases our susceptibility to such a severe space-weather event. Using a new high-resolution model of the global economy, we simulate the economic impact of strong CMEs for three different planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts within the countries directly affected, as well as the post-disaster economic shock in partner economies linked by international trade. For a 1989 Quebec-like event, the global economic impacts would range from USD 2.4 to 3.4 trillion over a year. Of this total economic shock, about 50% would be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading to a loss in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.9 to 5.6%. The global economic damage is of the same order as wars, extreme financial crisis and estimated for future climate change.

Dynamical processes in space: Cluster results

Abstract. After 12 years of operations, the Cluster mission continues to successfully fulfil its scientific objectives. The main goal of the Cluster mission, comprised of four identical spacecraft, is to study in three dimensions small-scale plasma structures in key plasma regions of the Earth's environment: solar wind and bow shock, magnetopause, polar cusps, magnetotail, plasmasphere and auroral zone. During the course of the mission, the relative distance between the four spacecraft has been varied from 20 km to 36 000 km to study the scientific regions of interest at different scales. Since summer 2005, new multi-scale constellations have been implemented, wherein three spacecraft (C1, C2, C3) are separated by 10 000 km, while the fourth one (C4) is at a variable distance ranging between 20 km and 10 000 km from C3. Recent observations were conducted in the auroral acceleration region with the spacecraft separated by 1000s km. We present highlights of the results obtained during the last 12 years on collisionless shocks, magnetopause waves, magnetotail dynamics, plasmaspheric structures, and the auroral acceleration region. In addition, we highlight Cluster results on understanding the impact of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) on the Earth environment. We will also present Cluster data accessibility through the Cluster Science Data System (CSDS), and the Cluster Active Archive (CAA), which was implemented to provide a permanent and public archive of high resolution Cluster data from all instruments.

Model uncertainties in predictions of arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth orbit

[1] It is very important, both for research and forecasting application, to be aware of uncertainty estimation of a scientific model, i.e., to know how model performance depends on the uncertainty in the input parameters. Scientific models are becoming more important as tools for space weather operators' applications and for space weather forecasting. It is essential that operational users, forecasters, model developers, and the scientific community are aware of model capabilities and limitations. In our previous study we validated the performance of the WSA/ENLIL cone model combination in simulating the propagation of 14 events of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to the L1 point using the cone model approach for halo CMEs. In this short report we present the results of the uncertainty estimation for the WSA/ENLIL cone model combination studying the dependence of the arrival time of the CME shock and the magnitude of the CME impact on the magnetosphere on the uncertainty in the CME input parameters using three events from the previously reported 14 event list.

Deriving solar transient characteristics from single spacecraft STEREO/HI elongation variations: a theoretical assessment of the technique

Abstract. Recently, a technique has been developed whereby the radial velocity, Vr, and longitude direction, β, of propagation of an outward-moving solar transient, such as a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), can be estimated from its track in a time-elongation map produced using Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations from a single STEREO spacecraft. The method employed, which takes advantage of an artefact of projective geometry, is based on the evaluation of the best fit of the time-elongation profile of the transient, extracted from a time-elongation map, to a set of theoretical functions corresponding to known combinations of radial velocity and direction; here we present an initial theoretical assessment of the efficacy of this technique. As the method relies on the manual selection of points along the time-elongation profile, an assessment of the accuracy with which this is feasible, is initially made. The work then presented assesses theoretically this method of recovering the velocity and propagation direction of solar transients from their time-elongation profiles using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach. In particular, we assess the range of elongations over which it is necessary to make observations in order to accurately recover these parameters. Results of the Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that it is sufficient to track a solar transient out to around 40° elongation to provide accurate estimates of its associated radial velocity and direction; the accuracy to which these parameters can be estimated for a transient tracked over a particular elongation extent is, however, sensitive to its velocity and direction relative to the Sun-Spacecraft line. These initial results suggest that this technique based on single spacecraft STEREO/HI observations could prove extremely useful in terms of providing an early warning of a CME impact on the near-Earth environment.

Two Years of the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers

Imaging of the heliosphere is a burgeoning area of research. As a result, it is awash with new results, using novel applications, and is demonstrating great potential for future research in a wide range of topical areas. The STEREO (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory) Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments are at the heart of this new development, building on the pioneering observations of the SMEI (Solar Mass Ejection Imager) instrument aboard the Coriolis spacecraft. Other earlier heliospheric imaging systems have included ground-based interplanetary scintillation (IPS) facilities and the photometers on the Helios spacecraft. With the HI instruments, we now have routine wide-angle imaging of the inner heliosphere, from vantage points outside the Sun-Earth line. HI has been used to investigate the development of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they pass through the heliosphere to 1 AU and beyond. Synoptic mapping has also allowed us to see graphic illustrations of the nature of mass outflow as a function of distance from the Sun – in particular, stressing the complexity of the near-Sun solar wind. The instruments have also been used to image co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs), to study the interaction of comets with the solar wind and CMEs, and to witness the impact of CMEs and CIRs on planets. The very nature of this area of research – which brings together aspects of solar physics, space-environment physics, and solar-terrestrial physics – means that the research papers are spread among a wide range of journals from different disciplines. Thus, in this special issue, it is timely and appropriate to provide a review of the results of the first two years of the HI investigations.