Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures Research Articles

Contribution of High-mode Near-inertial Waves to Enhanced Typhoon-induced Sea Surface Temperature Cooling in the South China Sea

Sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC) is an important indicator of the ocean response to typhoons and is a factor in the evolution of typhoons. Understanding the intricate mechanisms underlying the SSTC induced by different typhoons is important. Based on the numerical simulation, we investigated the SSTC induced by typhoons Megi (2010), Linfa (2015), and Sarika (2011), which had relatively similar tracks in the South China Sea. As the strongest (weakest) typhoon, Megi (Sarika) induced the largest (smallest) SSTC, which is consistent with the traditional understanding that stronger typhoons usually induce larger SSTC than weaker typhoons. However, the SSTC induced by the moderate typhoon Linfa was nearly comparable to that induced by Megi, while Linfa had a wind power input an order of magnitude smaller. A comparison of near-inertial waves (NIWs) induced by Linfa and Megi showed that the former contained a larger proportion of high modes, substantially contributing to vertical shear. Consequently, the vertical mixing coefficient during Linfa reached one third of that during Megi. Because the SSTC is primarily influenced by vertical mixing, which is dominated by vertical diffusion at the mixed layer depth, the relatively strong vertical mixing coefficient and large temperature gradient during Linfa ultimately resulted in the SSTC nearly comparable to that induced by Megi. The results of this study enhance the understanding of typhoon-induced SSTC.

The Feedback of Ocean Cold Wakes on Three Successive Northward-Moving Tropical Cyclones in 2022

Abstract In 2022, three tropical cyclones (TCs) successively moved northward in the Northwest Pacific. Both the preceding and subsequent TCs can cause obvious sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC), which may last from a few days to a month. In this study, an uncoupled atmosphere-only model and a coupled ocean-atmosphere model were employed to investigate the effects of the SSTC caused by the preceding TCs on the track and intensity of the subsequent TCs. The results indicated that in the atmosphere-only simulations, the subsequent TC had a northeast shift in the track and a reduced intensity. The ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations showed similar TC track adjustments, but different TC intensity change results. The analysis suggested that the deviation of the TC track is the combined effect of the changes in the steering flow, beta drift, and diabatic heating. For the change of TC intensity, not only the SSTC but also the thickness of the oceanic mixed layer needs to be considered. The related physical mechanisms are analyzed in this paper.

Sedimentary organic matter signature hints at the phytoplankton-driven biological carbon pump in the central Arabian Sea

Abstract. The central Arabian Sea, a unique tropical basin, is profoundly impacted by monsoon wind reversal affecting its surface circulation and biogeochemistry. Phytoplankton blooms associated with high biological productivity and particle flux occur in the northern part of the central Arabian Sea due to summer-monsoon-induced open-ocean upwelling and winter convection. The core oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) at intermediate water depths is another important feature of the northern central Arabian Sea and fades southward. In this study, we attempt to interlink how these factors collectively impact phytodetrital export to the sediment. Short sediment core-top (1 cm) samples representing the recent particle flux signatures were analysed from five locations (21 to 11° N; 64° E) in the central Arabian Sea. Previously, we used core-top (0–0.5 cm) samples and observed a trend between diatom frustule abundance and diversity with bulk sedimentary parameters indicating a spatial variability in phytodetrital export to the sediment. To verify this observation further, lipid biomarkers of key phytoplankton groups and a sea surface temperature (SST) proxy have been analysed in addition to diatom frustules. The C37 alkenone-based SST proxy indicated cooler SST (27.6 ± 0.25 °C) in the north (21–15° N) mostly due to upwelling (summer) and convective mixing (winter). Warmer SSTs (+0.4 °C) are measured in the south, which usually remains nutrient-poor. This trend was consistent with satellite-derived average SST values (2017–2020). Lipid biomarker analysis suggests that dinoflagellates were likely to be the highest contributor, as indicated by dinosterol and its degradative product dinostanol, followed by brassicasterol and C37 alkenone, likely representing diatoms and coccolithophores, respectively. The north, which largely experiences periodic phytoplankton blooms and is influenced by the thick OMZ, revealed the highest contents of organic matter, diatom frustules (diversity and abundance), dominated by large, thickly silicified cells (e.g. Coscinodiscus and Rhizosolenia) and phytoplankton lipid biomarkers, as well as lower contents of zooplankton biomarkers (cholesterol and cholestanol). In contrast, relatively smaller chain-forming centric (e.g. Thalassiosira) and pennate (e.g. Pseudo-nitzschia, Nitzschia, Thalassionema) diatom frustules along with lower phytoplankton lipid biomarker contents were found in the south, where zooplankton biomarkers and silicious radiolarians were more abundant. The possible impacts of the OMZ on particle flux related to the phytoplankton community, including zooplankton grazing and other factors, have been discussed.

Limited Sea Surface Temperature Cooling Due to the Barrier Layer Promoting Super Typhoon Mangkhut (2018)

Limited Sea Surface Temperature Cooling Due to the Barrier Layer Promoting Super Typhoon Mangkhut (2018)

Environmental influences on the phenology of immigrating juvenile eels over weirs at the tidal limit of regulated rivers

Recruitment of the catadromous and critically endangered European eel Anguilla anguilla in Europe has declined substantially since the 1980s, with considerable knowledge gaps remaining in many aspects of their life cycle. The aim was to assess eel migration phenology in three regulated rivers in England between 2009 and 2019 through analyses of eel numbers using passes at their tidal limits, with calculation of the annual timings of migration initiation (10% of all eels passed, T10), peak (50%, T50) and conclusion (90%, T90). Across the three rivers, T10 varied between Julian Day (‘Day’) 94 and 173. Years of earlier T10 had significantly earlier T50, where T50 varied between Day 105 and 200. The considerable inter-annual variability in migration timings was associated with environmental variables; earlier T10 and T50 occurred in years of warmer river temperatures (RTs) and cooler sea surface temperatures (SST), and in years where RTs were higher than SSTs. No environmental variables were significant predictors of T90. These results indicate that whilst there is annual variability in the timing of eel migration initiation and peak into freshwaters, this variability is predictable according to differences in environmental conditions. As many of these conditions associated with annual variability in temperature and precipitation then climate change has the potential to shift these migration timings.

Improving the Statistical Representation of Tropical Cyclone In-Storm Sea Surface Temperature Cooling

Abstract This study uses fixed buoy time series to create an algorithm for sea surface temperature (SST) cooling underneath a tropical cyclone (TC) inner core. To build predictive equations, SST cooling is first related to single variable predictors such as the SST before storm arrival, ocean heat content (OHC), mixed layer depth, sea surface salinity and stratification, storm intensity, storm translation speed, and latitude. Of all the single variable predictors, initial SST before storm arrival explains the greatest amount of variance for the change in SST during storm passage. Using a combination of predictors, we created nonlinear predictive equations for SST cooling. In general, the best predictive equations have four predictors and are built with knowledge about the prestorm ocean structure (e.g., OHC), storm intensity (e.g., minimum sea level pressure), initial SST values before storm arrival, and latitude. The best-performing SST cooling equations are broken up into two ocean regimes: when the ocean heat content is less than 60 kJ cm−2 (greater spread in SST cooling values) and when the ocean heat content is greater than 60 kJ cm−2 (SST cooling is always less than 2°C), which demonstrates the importance of the prestorm oceanic thermal structure on the in-storm SST value. The new equations are compared to what is currently used in a statistical–dynamical model. Overall, since the ocean providing the latent heat and sensible heat fluxes necessary for TC intensification, the results highlight the importance for consistently obtaining accurate in-storm upper-oceanic thermal structure for accurate TC intensity forecasts. Significance Statement The ocean provides the heat and moisture necessary for tropical cyclone (TC) intensification. Since the heat and moisture transfer depend on the sea surface temperature (SST), we create statistical equations for the prediction of SST underneath the storm. The variables we use combine the initial SST before the storm arrives, the upper-ocean thermal structure, and the strength and translation speed of the storm. The predictive equations for SST are evaluated for how well they improve TC intensity forecasts. The best-performing equations can be used for prediction in operational statistical models, which can aid intensity forecasts.

A Cold Lid on a Warm Ocean: Indian Ocean Surface Rain Layers and Their Feedbacks to the Atmosphere

AbstractOcean surface rain layers (RLs) form when relatively colder, fresher, less dense rain water stably stratifies the upper ocean. RLs cool sea surface temperature (SST) by confining surface evaporative cooling to a thin near‐surface layer, and generate sharp SST gradients between the cool RL and the surrounding ocean. In this study, ocean‐atmosphere coupled simulations of the November 2011 Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) event are conducted with and without RLs to evaluate two pathways for RLs to influence the atmosphere. The first, termed the “SST gradient effect,” arises from the hydrostatic adjustment of the boundary layer to RL‐enhanced SST gradients. The second, termed the “SST effect,” arises from RL‐induced SST reductions impeding the development of deep atmospheric convection. RLs are found to sharpen SST gradients throughout the MJO suppressed and suppressed‐to‐enhanced convection transition phases, but their effect on convection is only detected during the MJO suppressed phase when RL‐induced SST gradients enhance low‐level convergence/divergence and broaden the atmospheric vertical velocity probability distribution below 5 km. The SST effect is more evident than the SST gradient effect during the MJO transition phase, as RLs reduce domain average SST by 0.03 K and narrow vertical velocity distribution, thus delaying onset of deep convection. A delayed SST effect is also identified, wherein frequent RLs during the MJO transition phase isolate accumulated subsurface ocean heat from the atmosphere. The arrival of strong winds at the onset of the MJO active phase erodes RLs and releases subsurface ocean heat to the atmosphere, supporting the development of deep convection.

Impact of spring land-surface conditions over the Tibetan Plateau on the early summer Asian monsoon using an AGCM large ensemble

Influence of land-surface memory effects over the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian summer monsoon has long been studied, but not quantified because of the difficulty of extracting only these effects from observational data. This study examines the impact of spring land-surface conditions, including surface air temperature (SAT) and snow cover, over the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding regions on the early stage of the Asian summer monsoon using large-ensemble experiments produced by an atmospheric global climate model (AGCM). The results show that the above-normal SAT over and around the Tibetan Plateau in May can enhance June monsoon circulation without the sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. The physical mechanism behind this involves warmed surface air over the plateau enhancing the north–south SAT gradient, leading to strengthening the Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation. Inter-ensemble correlation analysis indicated that SAT warming over the plateau is clearly associated with upper-tropospheric anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies in May. Also, although winter land-surface signals do not persist until late spring, SAT anomalies in March tend to persist until May, explaining 10–20% of the total SAT variance in May. Interestingly, the spring SAT impacts on June monsoon circulations vary interannually, indicating that the contribution of the land–atmosphere (L–A) coupling process to interannual monsoon variability differs from year to year. Active L–A coupling years tend to coincide with cooler SSTs with anomalous low-level divergence and upper-level convergence over and around the Maritime continent, implying that SST forcing is associated with the L–A coupling strength. Specifically, in May of the developing stage of monsoon circulation, the weak Walker circulation over the equatorial and northern Indian Ocean and undeveloped monsoon circulation are suitable for the L–A coupling to influence the development of the monsoon circulation effectively. However, the well-known oceanic events, such as El Nin~\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${\\widetilde{n}}$$\\end{document}o, are found to be less connected with the interannual L–A coupling variations.

Sea surface temperature warming to inhibit mitigation of tropical cyclone destructiveness over East Asia in El Niño

Given their conditions to reside in and intensify longer over warm oceans, tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) present a stronger lifetime maximum intensity during El Niño than during La Niña. By using observational data, we found that the anomalously cool sea surface temperature (SST)s in the basin act as effective barriers against intense TCs approaching East Asia during El Niño, weakening their destructiveness at landfall. Based on our high-resolution pseudo-global-warming simulations, the basin-wide 2K SST warming within the WNP basin can, however, shatter this cool SST barrier, exposing East Asia to more destructive TCs during El Niño, compared to those during La Niña. Considering that the 2K warmer WNP will likely occur in the mid-21st century under a high emission scenario and in the late 21st century under a moderate emission scenario, our findings support that more aggressive efforts of global warming mitigation are needed.

The thermal journey of macroalgae: Four decades of temperature-induced changes in the southeastern Bay of Biscay

Global warming is triggering significant shifts in temperate macroalgal communities worldwide, favoring small, warm-affinity species over large canopy-forming, cold-affinity species. The Cantabrian Sea, a region acutely impacted by climate change, is also witnessing this shift. This study delved into the impacts of increasing sea surface temperature on the subtidal macroalgal communities in the southeastern Bay of Biscay over the last four decades, by using data from the years 1982, 2007, 2014, and 2020. We found that temperature has shaped the community structure, with warm-affinity species steadily displacing their cold-affinity counterparts. Notably, new communities exhibited a profusion of smaller algal species, explaining the observed increased biodiversity within the area. In the last period investigated (2014–2020), we observed a partial recovery of the communities, coinciding with cooler sea surface temperatures. Shallow algal communities were more reactive to temperature variations than deeper communities, possibly associated with higher exposure to increased temperatures. Our study offered insights into the intricate relationship between the changes in ocean temperature and algal species in the southeastern Bay of Biscay, shedding light on the ongoing ecological shifts in this region.

Tropical Cyclone Modeling With the Inclusion of Wave‐Coupled Processes: Sea Spray and Wave Turbulence

AbstractWaves critically modulate the air‐sea fluxes, and upper‐ocean thermodynamics in a Tropical Cyclone (TC) system. This study improves the modeling of TC intensification by incorporating non‐breaking wave‐induced turbulence and sea spray from breaking waves into an atmosphere‐ocean‐wave coupled model. Notably, wind forecast error decreased by around 10% prior to TCs' peak intensity. The positive feedback of sea spray along with compensatory negative feedback from non‐breaking waves, overall enhanced TCs' intensity. These breaking and non‐breaking wave‐coupled processes consistently cool sea surface temperature, resulting in improvement of the modeled SST. Observed improvements in full‐year TC cases ranging from Categories I to IV in this study suggest that an accurate characterization of ocean wave‐coupled processes is crucial for improving TCs' intensity forecasts and advancing our understanding of severe weather events in both, the atmosphere and ocean.

Massive SST-front anomaly in the tip of Sumatra waters triggered by extreme positive IOD 2019 event

ABSTRACT Western Sumatra typically accepts intense radiation throughout the year, affecting the alteration of sea surface temperature (SST) in the area. This study examines a widespread SST-front in the northeastern Tropical Indian Ocean (NETIO) which is not an essential area of the anomalies that was not predicted by previous studies. The data processing method is based on a remote-sensing approach with SST-front analysis utilizing gradient magnitude (GM). This study reveals the anomaly finding and its mechanism as the impact of extreme positive IOD (IODp) 2019 event modulating the strong ocean–atmosphere interactions in late 2019 to early 2020. However, similar massive phenomena were not found during IODp 2006 or 2015 events. The tip of Sumatra waters showed a high value of GM with more than 0.2°C km−1 in the wide area and well-shaped lengthened towards the Indian Ocean. It has corresponded to cold fronts with minimum SST around 26.0°C and maximum SST reaching 30.0°C, respectively. Cooler SST is associated with an upwelling process that is influenced by reflective upwelling Rossby waves with the speed of 0.24 m s−1, anticyclonic circulation in the Andaman Sea, and strong northeast monsoonal wind with a speed of around 8.0 m s−1 forming a divergent area at NETIO. The correlation of wind component with SST-front is about −0.56(−0.71) for u(v) component. Meanwhile, warmer SST was generated by the local-monsoon shift in influencing the downwelling of the southeast Tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) by the end of the IODp event. This upwelling–downwelling process is also illustrated by the contrasting sea surface height, which differs by about 0.3 m. It is highlighted that the strong upwelling (NETIO) as the result of the end of extreme IODp 2019 event and downwelling (SETIO) caused an abrupt alteration of water mass in the tip of Sumatra, leading to a massive SST-front.

Impacts of tidal mixing on diurnal and intraseasonal air-sea interactions in the Maritime Continent

The Maritime Continent (MC) is a region with enhanced tidal mixing and ocean cooling, which influences regional-scale sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We examine the coupled impacts of tidal mixing on near-surface stratification, SST, and deep convection on diurnal and intraseasonal time-scales, using ensembles of high-resolution, coupled ocean-atmosphere regional model simulations, with and without tidal forcing. Results show that the area-averaged SST in the eastern MC is reduced by 0.20 °C due to tidal forcing, with cooling exceeding 1 °C in the nearshore zones of shallow and complex bathymetry. The reduced SSTs decrease surface heat fluxes, leading to tropospheric drying and reduced precipitation, which are most pronounced in the nearshore zones. The results show that the magnitude of tidally-induced SST cooling is phase-dependent during the passage of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Strong westerly winds enhance entrainment cooling through wind-driven mixing and upwelling during the active phase. Conversely, the upper-ocean stratification is enhanced during the suppressed phase, and SSTs are less sensitive to subsurface cooling. Such spatio-temporal variability in the SST response to tides is accompanied by consistent changes to deep convection and atmospheric circulation. On the diurnal time-scale, nearshore cooling weakens the early-morning convection when the land-based convection propagates offshore and interacts with the cooler SST. On intraseasonal time-scales, the coupling between SST and precipitation is strengthened because of the asymmetric impacts of tide-induced mixing on SST and MJO-induced winds. The robust SST and precipitation responses demonstrated in this study suggest the need for an accurate representation of tidal forcing and vertical mixing processes in local MJO prediction models for the MC.

Stronger Tropical Cyclone–Induced Ocean Cooling in Near-Coastal Regions Compared to the Open Ocean

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TC) often induce strong mixing in the upper ocean that generates a trail of cooler sea surface temperature (Twake) in their wakes. The Twake can affect TC intensity, so its prediction is important, especially in coastal regions where TCs can make landfall. Coastal Twakes are often more complex than those in the open ocean due to the influences of coastline geometry, highly variable water depth, continental runoff, and shelf processes. Using observational data since 2002, here we show a significantly stronger global mean Twake in coastal regions compared to offshore regions. Temperature stratification is the main driver of stronger coastal Twakes in the North Atlantic and east Pacific. In the northwest Pacific and north Indian Ocean, the differences between coastal and offshore Twakes are smaller due to compensation between TC forcings and ocean stratification. The north Indian Ocean is unique in the Northern Hemisphere because salinity stratification plays a major role on the spatial distribution of Twake. In the South Pacific Ocean, TC intensity and translation speed are crucial for explaining coastal–offshore Twake differences, while ocean stratification and mixed layer depth are more important for the coastal–offshore Twake differences in the south Indian Ocean. These findings suggest that coastal–offshore differences in ocean stratification need to be properly represented in models in order to capture changes in TC-induced ocean cooling as storms approach landfall. Significance Statement Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause considerable damage in coastal regions with dense human populations. Understanding TC–ocean interaction and how it differs between coastal and offshore regions can help predict TC intensity prior to landfall. Sea surface cooling after TC passage is an important proxy for TC–ocean interaction. A global evaluation of coastal TC-induced cooling has not been conducted. Using data covering two decades, we show significantly stronger TC-induced surface cooling in coastal regions compared to offshore regions at the global scale and in all basins except the northwest Pacific and north Indian Ocean. The difference is driven mainly by upper-ocean conditions in the North Atlantic, east Pacific, and south Indian Ocean, and by TC characteristics in the South Pacific.

Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature Cooling in Typhoon Events Passing the Kuroshio Current

Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature Cooling in Typhoon Events Passing the Kuroshio Current

Understanding elevated CO2 concentrations in East Asia relative to the global mean during boreal spring on the slow and interannual timescales

It is important to examine the physical processes that regulate current CO2 concentrations in East Asia to understand the global carbon cycle. To do this, we begin by defining the difference between East Asian and global CO2 concentrations (East Asian CO2 concentration minus global CO2 concentration), which is referred to as East Asian local CO2 concentration (i.e., EA_LCO2). Then, we examine the physical processes associated with the variability of EA_LCO2 during boreal spring (March–April–May) on the slow and interannual timescales. Our results indicate that there are two key factors leading to elevated CO2 concentrations in East Asia relative to the global mean during boreal spring; one is higher emissions in East Asia, which mostly explains the increasing in EA_LCO2 on the slow timescales. The other is a cool sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific (La-Nina-like SST), which is associated with an interannual higher CO2 concentration in East Asia than the global mean. Enhanced convective activity in the western tropical Pacific, which is associated with a La-Nina-like SST forcing, induces low-pressure circulation in the western North Pacific with northerly winds, leading to suppressed precipitation and cool surface temperature in East Asia. Subsequently, those suppress vegetation growth as well as gross primary product, resulting in relatively high CO2 concentrations in East Asia compared to the global mean.

Deep learning approach for forecasting sea surface temperature response to tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclones (TCs) induce sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC), which is important for TC development itself as well as for variations of regional air-sea environment. TC-induced SSTC patterns and its prediction is still a challenge. In this study, a long short-term memory neural network deep learning model is developed to forecast TC-induced SSTC in the western North Pacific (WNP) using TCs during 2002–2016 as training cases and TCs during 2017–2018 as prediction and test cases. The 6-h TC-induced SSTC biases to the right-rear area of TC center, with a maximum of ∼0.6 °C on average, while SSTC is greater in higher latitudes than lower latitudes. The input variables for the deep learning model are surface wind at 10 m (U10 and V10), sea surface height (SSH), sea surface temperature (SST), and temperature at 100 m depth (T100), the output variable is SST 6 h after TCs. The model can predict TC-induced SSTC patterns, with an average mean absolute error of ∼0.081 °C, a root mean square error of ∼0.126 °C and a spatial anomaly correlation coefficient of ∼0.948. This work indicates that post-TC SSTC follows similar physical processes and nonlinear relationships with TC wind, initial SSH and ocean temperature, especially in deep-water regions. Although with some limitations, the deep learning model has the potential to be applied to operational forecasts.

Modulation of Asymmetric Inner‐Core Convection on Midlevel Ventilation Leading up to the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Lekima (2019)

AbstractThis study investigates how the asymmetric inner‐core convection can modulate midlevel ventilation preceding rapid intensification (RI) of sheared tropical cyclones (TC) based on two numerical experiments of Typhoon Lekima (2019) with warm (CTL) and relatively cool (SSTA0) sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The midlevel ventilation is dominated by an inflow layer between heights of 5 and 10 km in the upshear‐left quadrant, while the convective development in the upshear‐left quadrant acts to induce asymmetric midlevel outflow. These outflows, together with the reduced tilt, lessen the strength of midlevel inflow in a quadrant‐mean sense. Due to a slower boundary‐layer recovery of low‐entropy air over cooler SST, convective development in the upshear‐left quadrant in SSTA0 is suppressed, causing stronger midlevel inflows than that in CTL. A backward trajectory analysis initialized near the RI onset of CTL shows that the TC in CTL is less susceptible to the intrusion of midlevel dry air from left‐of‐shear and upshear‐left quadrant due to the weaker upshear‐left midlevel inflow. Moreover, the intruding air parcels in SSTA0 tend to originate farther away from TC center and lower the eyewall equivalent potential temperature more effectively. A column‐integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget reveals a dramatic increase in MSE in inner‐core region associated with the positive changes of horizontal MSE advection radially outward of enhanced convective rainbands preceding RI onset in CTL. In contrast, the MSE increases more slowly in SSTA0 due to the weaker upshear convection, inducing a less favorable thermodynamic conditions that is potentially responsible for a delayed RI onset.

On Synergy between Convective Equatorial Signals and Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Bay of Bengal

Abstract The relationship between eastward-propagating convective equatorial signals (CES) along the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and the northward-propagating monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) was studied using observational datasets acquired during the 2018 and 2019 MISO-BOB field campaigns. Convective envelopes of MISOs originating from just south of the BOB were associated with both strong and weak eastward CES (average speed ∼6.4 m s−1). Strong CES contributed to ∼20% of the precipitation budget of BOB, and they spurred northward-propagating convective signals that matched the canonical speed of MISOs (1–2 m s−1). In contrast, weak CES contributed to ∼14% of the BOB precipitation budget, and they dissipated without significant northward propagation. Eastward-propagating intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; period 30–60 days) and convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs; period 4–15 days) accounted for most precipitation variability across the EIO during the 2019 boreal summer as compared with that of 2018. An agreement could be noted between high moisture content in the midtroposphere and the active phases of CCKWs and ISOs for two observational locations in the BOB. Basin-scale thermodynamic conditions prior to the arrival of strong or weak CES revealed warmer or cooler sea surface temperatures, respectively. Flux measurements aboard a research vessel suggest that the evolution of MISOs associated with strong CES are signified by local enhanced air–sea interactions, in particular the supply of local moisture and sensible heat, which could enhance deep convection and further moisten the upper troposphere. Significance Statement Eastward-propagating convective signals along the equatorial Indian Ocean and their relationship to the northward-propagating spells of rainfall that lead to moisture variability in the Bay of Bengal are studied for the 2018 and 2019 southwest monsoon seasons using observational datasets acquired during field campaigns. Strong convective equatorial signals spurred northward-propagating convection, as compared with weak signals that dissipated without significant northward propagation. Wave spectral analysis showed CCKWs (period 4–15 days), and eastward ISOs (period 30–60 days) accounted for most of the precipitation variability, with the former dominating during the 2018 boreal summer. High moisture periods observed from radiosonde measurements show agreement with the active phases of CCKWs and ISOs.

Holocene climate and oceanography of the coastal Western United States and California Current System

Abstract. Examination of climatic and oceanographic changes through the Holocene (11.75 ka–present) allows for an improved understanding and contextualization of modern climate change. Climate records of the Holocene can be utilized as a “baseline” from which to compare modern climate and can also provide insights into how environments experience and recover from change. However, individual studies on Holocene climate in the literature tend to focus on a distinct geographic location, a specific proxy record, or a certain aspect of climate (e.g., upwelling or precipitation), resulting in localized, record-specific trends rather than a comprehensive view of climate variability through the Holocene. Here we synthesize the major oceanographic and terrestrial changes that have occurred in the Western United States (bounded by 30 to 52∘ N and 115 to 130∘ W) through the most recent 11.75 kyr and explore the impacts of these changes on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. We present a novel spatiotemporal analysis of Holocene marine and terrestrial temperature, hydroclimate, and fire activity across the Early, Middle, and Late Holocene using a coded analysis of over 40 published studies. Following coded analysis of temperature, hydroclimate, and fire activity in the paper, we include a broader literature review of environmental change through the Holocene, including an examination of the impacts of multi-millennial climate trends on ecological communities. We find that the Early Holocene is characterized by warming relative to pre-Holocene conditions, including warm sea surface conditions, a warm and dry Pacific Northwest, a warm and wet Southwest, and overall spatial and temporal stability. In the Middle Holocene, these patterns reverse; this interval is characterized by cool sea surface temperatures, a cool and wet Pacific Northwest and warm and dry Southwest. The Late Holocene is the most variable interval, both spatially and temporally, and a novel spatial trend appears in terrestrial climate with warmer coastal areas and cooler inland areas. Human communities interacted with the environment throughout the entire Holocene, as evidenced in archeological and paleoenvironmental records, yet the recent Era of Colonization (1850–present) represents an unprecedented environmental interval in many records. Broadly, our analysis shows linkages between terrestrial and oceanographic conditions, distinct environmental phases through time, and emphasizes the importance of local factors in controlling climate through the dynamic Holocene.