Conventional Input-output Model Research Articles

Using a linear regression approach to sequential interindustry model for time-lagged economic impact analysis

The input-output (IO) model is a powerful economic tool with many extended applications. However, one of the widely criticized drawbacks is its rather lengthy time lag in data preparation, making it impossible to apply IO in high-resolution time-series analysis. The conventional IO model is thus unfortunately unsuited for time-series analysis. In this study, we present an innovative algorithm that integrates linear regression techniques into a derivative of the IO method, the Sequential Interindustry Model (SIM), to overcome the inherent shortcomings of statistical lags in conventional IO studies. The regressed relationship can thus be used to predict, in the short term, the accumulated chronological impacts induced by fluctuations in sectorial economic demands under disequilibrium conditions. A simulated calculation is presented to serve as an illustration and verification of the new method. In the future, this application can be extended beyond economic studies to broader problems of system analysis.

Parallel manipulator domains of singularity free functionality

A mechanics-based parallel manipulator formulation with mechanism generalized coordinates, kinematic constraints, input coordinates, and output coordinates is employed to account for singularities that conventional input-output models cannot represent. Criteria are presented at the configuration level that assure local existence of differentiable forward and inverse kinematic mappings. Basic results of differential topology are used to extend local kinematic relationships to singularity free, path connected, maximal domains of functionality, on which reliable manipulator planning and control may be implemented. It is shown that any trajectory in manipulator configuration space between points in distinct domains of functionality must encounter a singularity. Methods are presented that define domains of functionality, using only linear algebra and multivariable calculus for implementation, and illustrated with three parallel manipulators of varying levels of complexity. The first example is a simple manipulator that demonstrates concepts. The second defines 16 domains of functionality in a seven-dimensional configuration space. The third is a construction earth moving manipulator, for which maximal domains of functionality and more conservative domains with input bounds that uniformly avoid singularities are presented. Communicated by Bogdan Gavrea.

The Regional Economic Effects of Military Base Realignments and Closures

This paper empirically investigates the impact of military base realignments and closures on regional economic activity in light of the 2005 round of Base Realignment and Closure actions. Baseline regressions with county-level data show employment multipliers comparable to those generated from conventional input–output models. However, controlling for possible endogeneity and other regional-specific factors, regressions indicate more tenuous results for spillover effects from the military to the private sector. Only the contractor type of base employment generated economically and statistically meaningful impacts on local employment. In addition, there is strong evidence of asymmetric effects between military buildups and drawdowns.

Exploring tentative lives

Much social work practice with adolescents involved in activities known to be risky, such as experimentation with substances or petty crime, seems to have been influenced by the conventional input-output model which assumes an unreflected relationship between the present manifestation of risk and adverse future outcomes. This model relies on an uncertain scientific basis and does not really allow for the adolescents’ own reflexivity. This article aims at contributing to the shaping of more reflexive concepts for social work in this area, and is based on material derived from a focus group made up of 17 adolescents from Central Norway, aged 16-18 years old. The major foci of analysis were: i) how the adolescents positioned themselves with regard to conflicting notions of respectability, ii) which constructions of meaning might be attached to this positioning and iii) how the positioning might inform social work practice.

A dynamic input–output model for nascent bioenergy supply chains

This paper presents a novel multi-time-stage input–output-based modeling framework for simulating the dynamics of bioenergy supply chains. One of the key assumptions used in the model is that the production level at the next time-stage of each segment of the energy supply chain adjusts to the output surplus or deficit relative to targets at the current time period. Furthermore, unlike conventional input–output models, the technology matrix in this approach need not be square, and thus can include coefficients denoting flows of environmental goods, such as natural resources or pollutants. Introducing a feedback control term enables the system to regulate the dynamics, thus extending the model further. This is an important feature since the uncontrolled dynamic model exhibits oscillatory or unstable behavior under some conditions; in principle, the control term allows such undesirable characteristics to be suppressed. Numerical simulations of a simple, two-sector case study are given to illustrate dynamic behavior under different scenarios. Although the case study uses only a hypothetical system, preliminary comparisons are made between the simulation results and some broad trends seen in real bioenergy systems. Finally, some of the main policy implications of the model are discussed based on the general dynamic characteristics seen in the case study. In particular, insights from control theory can be used to develop policy interventions to impart desirable dynamic characteristics to nascent or emerging biofuel supply chains. These interventions can be used to guide the growth of bioenergy supplies along final demand trajectories with minimal fluctuation and no instability.

Sensor fault diagnosis based on energy balance evaluation: Application to a metal processing

Abstract This paper deals with the design of a residual generator for fault detection and isolation in the dynamic closed-loop systems based on the balance of energy which “enters” and “leaves” plants. The main contribution of this paper consists in developing a suitable fault detection and isolation technique to detect faults in single-input single-output closed-loop system based on major signals without the requirement of an accurate static or dynamic model. Indeed, in the absence of conventional input-output models, the proposed method involves the on-line energy balance evaluation to detect a sensor fault. The application to the monitoring of a galvanizing line in steel industry shows the effectiveness of the suggested approach when a sensor fault occurs.

Impacts of agrochemical fertilizer on the aquatic environment of paddy fields in Vietnam

To evaluate the impacts of agrochemical fertilizer application on the aquatic environment of paddy fields in tropical regions, 7.04 ha of paddy field situated in northern Vietnam were selected as a study area. The fate of nutrient constituents was surveyed through a questionnaire as well as analytical observation. Taking the major environmental components of the paddy field into account, a mass-balance flow regarding fertilizing constituents such as nitrogen and phosphate was built up and used to estimate the contribution of fertilizer to paddy field water pollution. In the mass-flow analysis, the randomness of fertilizer used by local farmers is incorporated within the conventional input-output model. For the control volume of soil in 0-40 cm below paddy plot surface, the estimated average concentrations in soil were 1.8 ppm for inorganic nitrogen and 1.3 ppm for inorganic phosphate on the assumption of 50% non-excessive probability. From the reasonable consistency of the deduced concentrations of nutrients with observed ones, not only the mass balance of fertilizing substances but also the impacts of fertilizer on the paddy field aquatic environment in Vietnam could be understood. On the results from nutrient mass-balance analysis, it was found that 11.3-13.3 kg N/ha would percolate into the underground aquifer that is linked to surface channel flow in the vicinity of the paddy plots and affect the irrigation water quality. The nutrient portion in the materials harvested as grain and straw occupied 58% of total dosed nitrogen and 75.6% of total supplied phosphorous.

Differential Multipliers for Tourism in Victoria

This study assesses the significance of different types of tourists to Victoria, Australia, by their relative contribution to the economy. Differential impacts are calculated using an input–output model incorporating marginal household coefficients. The analysis demonstrates that the conventional input–output model can overestimate the flow-on effects to value added, income and employment by a significant amount. It finds that domestic tourists are the largest contributor to the State economy, with day-trippers spending the greatest amount. International tourists rank last in terms of economic impacts on the state.

Queensland State Impact and Projection Model: The Household Sector

The Queensland Impact and Projection model is an integrated input–output econometric model of the Queensland economy. Its purpose is to complement a conventional input–output model for analyzing economic impacts at the state level. This paper provides an overview of some of the methods used to model the household sector in an input–output framework, before describing the approach taken in the Queensland model. Some results which support the empirical performance of the model are also provided. It is demonstrated that the integrated model is a viable alternative and improvement on the conventional input–output model. The results are consistent with the static input–output model and conform to expectations about how the economy responds in real impact situations.

Input-Output and Integrated Models for Demo-Economic Impact Analysis-an Empirical Comparison.

QUIP is an integrated input-output + economitric model of the Queensland economy. It was designed to replace the conventional input-output model for analysing economic impacts at the state level. Therefore it is pertinent to compare the results from the two types of models as an aid in the understanding and interpretation of the results. In general, the integrated model will produce smaller aggregate impacts than the closed input-output model in a static context (because of the use of marginal rather than average primary factor and household coefficients), but at a disaggregated industry level, it tends to redistribute the flow-ons from the service type industries to manufacturing type industries which have more rigid production structures. In a dynamic context, the input-output model misses the flow-through effects on the economy in later time periods through demographic changes. The integrated model shows that these flow-through effects are substantial and can more than double the size of the short-run multipliers.

産業連関モデルによる都市のエネルギー消費勘定に関する研究

Necessity of local actions for the prevention of global warming has become widely recognized. In Japan, a number of local governments have already started to prepare programs to restrain the increase of energy consumption and stabilize the associated CO2 emission in their respective regions. But today, any regions can not be economically independent from the outside. Through the consumption of imported goods and services, their economic activities are to a large extent supported by the outside regions. In analyzing energy consumption on the local level, therefore, not only direct but also “indirect” consumption of environmental resources must be taken into account. Based on the conventional input-output model, this study explores the energy accounting method to take into account such indirect form of energy and other resource use. Here, special consideration is given to the following points: (i) methodological improvement for the treatment of imported goods and services, (ii) implications of the energy used in the transportation sector for the production in the other sectors, (iii) sharing of the responsibilities for the CO2 emission between direct and indirect energy users.

地域のエネルギー消費構造分析における産業連関モデルの適用

Growing concerns over the global warmining issues call for actions on the local level. Many local governments have started to study their responsibilities and roles for reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. Various analyses were conducted to estimate the amount of energy consumption and the associated emission of carbon dioxide in cities and prefectures. Most of their interest, however, was confined to the improvement of energy efficiency or reduction of fossil fuel use in their jurisdiction. But today, cities (or regions) do not exist as a self-supportive system. They are incorporated in a gigantic framework of the globalized world economy. Therefore, production of goods and services in a city requires two different forms of energy. The first is the “direct” energy, or the net input of primary energy such as oil, coal, natural gas and solar radiation. The second is the “indirect” energy, or the energy embodied in the goods and services that are imported from the outside and used for production of new goods and services in the city. This paper presents a new energy accounting method applicable for small regions in a nation such as cities or prefectures. The method is based on the conventional input-output model, but it takes into account the energy that is embodied in the goods and services imported from the outside. Several cases are assumed for the system boundary between the region under consideration and the outside world. The calculation according to this method is carried out for four different prefectures and cities, i.e., Aichi Prefecture, Kitakyushu City, Fukuoka City and Yokohama City. Then, implication of the results obtained under different boundary conditions is discussed.

A comparative study of household interactive variable input-output (HIVIO) model and the conventional input-output models

This paper compares the HIVIO model with the conventional input-output models. The 1977 Jack Faucett's input-output transaction tables were used to compare the empirical results of the HIVIO model with those of the conventional input-output models for the United States and the State of Oklahoma. The empirical comparisons showed that the HIVIO (income and output) multipliers are consistently smaller than Type II multipliers and larger than Type I multipliers. The HIVIO multipliers are simulated by changing the wage rates to observe the multiplier effects of the wage changes. This property is not observed by the conventional multipliers.

Differential multipliers

A modified version of the Archer tourism multiplier model is used to derive differential multipliers, at both the sectoral and firm scale, for the Cook Islands tourist industry and ancillary sectors. Firm level analysis is shown to be necessary if factors of industrial organization, such as size and ownership characteristics, are not to be overlooked. The results reveal that smaller, locally owned establishments generate more local income, employment, and gross government revenue than their larger, overseas controlled counterparts. The model is shown to be a highly suitable surrogate for conventional input-output models, which, due to factors such as cost and lack of data, cannot always be used in small nations or regions to develop a data base suitable for the planning of tourist development.

‘I-O-W’ model for national planning

The paper proposes an input-output-waste (I-O-W) model as an extension of the input-output model to incorporate waste management (WM) aspects in national planning. The waste aspects have not been explicitly considered in the existing literature on input-output economics. It is visualized that in the economic structure the waste parameter has a significant role to play, and the I-O-W model will be a closer representation of the economy than that of conventional input-output models. Any unnecessary input to or any undesirable output from the system is considered as waste. The basic framework of an I-O-W model is presented, which consists of a technology matrix, a final-demand matrix, and a WM policy matrix. The resource balance has been established by treating the input to be equal to the sum of output and waste. The technological coefficients are interlinked by wastivity indices. The projections of a hypothetical economy consisting of one production sector and one WM sector have been determined for materia...

Multi-modal, multi-output, multiregional variable input-output model

A multi-modal, multi-output, multiregional variable input-output (MMMVIO) model is introduced to evaluate the economic impact of a transportation system. The MMVIO model differs from the conventional input-output models by being price and cost sensitive. The regional technical coefficients, trade coefficients, modal choice of shipment, input mix and output composition are determined by the price and cost variables, a property not shared by the conventional input-output models. The transportation system reduces shipping cost of delivering commodities between regions, thereby stimulating economy of trading regions. The MMMVIO model captures the development impact incident to the transportation system.

The impact of higher energy prices on growth and inflation in an industrializing economy: the Korean experience

The first serious problem faced by the Korean economy in recent years is the stagflation caused by the increasing energy cost of imported oil. How much does the oil crisis contribute to Korean inflation and unemployment? To answer the question, a variable input-output model is introduced. It differs from conventional models in one important respect: it allows the industrial structure to change in response to changing input costs. Under the model, the technical coefficient becomes an endogenous variable, a property that conventional input-output models fail to share.

Spatial Disaggregation of Orani Results: A Preliminary Analysis of the Impact of" Protection at the State Level

This paper projects the effects of changes in Australia's tariff policy on economic activity and employment in each of the states. It concludes that increases in protection increase employment in Victoria while reducing employment in Western Australia and Queensland. The methodological approach is based on Leontief et al, R.E. Sta t. (1965). However, modifications are made so that Leontief's method (originally applied with a conventional input-output model) can be applied with ORANI, a model in the Johansen class. As wel1 as results, the paper provides complete descriptions of the data input and theory.

Input-output and demographic accounting: A tool for educational planning

In this paper I have tried to bring together various forms of input-output accounting and analysis suited to dynamic problems. In the usual, static accounting system, the entries all relate to a single time-period and the set of accounts is completely closed. In the alternative, dynamic system suggested here, the inputs for a given period come, either in whole or in part, from the preceding period and the outputs go, either in whole or in part, to the succeeding period. Two types of model can be built within the framework of this dynamic accounting structure: the conventional input-output model, in which the input coefficients are fixed; and an allocation model, in which the output co-efficients are fixed. The conventional model is appropriate to the analysis of production flows; the allocation model to that of demographic flows. These two models provide us with the main building blocks for an educational model, since as far as the human inputs are concerned the educational system is simply a partition of the demographic system, and as far as the economic inputs are concerned it is a partition of the productive system. A first attempt at combining the two was described in my earlier article.