Continuation Of Recent Trends Research Articles

Fertility Reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe

OBJECTIVEThis paper provides recent cross-national evidence of the impact of the great recession on fertility in Europe in the context of the recent decade.METHODSUsing data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD), from Eurostat, and from the OECD database, we employ fixed-effects modeling to study how changes in unemployment rates have affected birth rates across Europe.RESULTSWe find that countries that were hit hard by the recession show reduced fertility when compared with a continuation of recent trends, especially at younger ages.CONCLUSIONOur results indicate a strong relationship between economic conditions and fertility. However, there is variation by region, age, and parity suggesting the importance of life course and institutional factors.(ProQuest: ... denotes formula omitted.)1. Recent fertility development in Europe: Between trend reversal and economic crisisThe relationship between economic conditions and fertility is one of the classic research questions in family demography. Since the work of Malthus, much of the empirical literature on the determinants of fertility dynamics has been motivated by the idea that economic hardship and labor market uncertainties will cause people to postpone or revise their fertility plans (e.g., Adsera 2004; Sobotka, Skirbekk, and Philipov 2011; Hofmann and Hohmeyer 2012; Schmitt 2012). Since the global financial crisis swept across Europe starting in 2007, there has been renewed interest in the question of whether increasing unemployment rates and growing labor market uncertainties will have repercussions for fertility development.Unlike previous recessions and economic upheavals, the current recession is hitting Europe after a period during which the age at childbearing had continuously increased. Although a flattening out in the age at first childbearing has been reported for some European countries, it has leveled off at a relatively high level. Furthermore, the financial crisis hit Europe at a time when many countries had just started to see modest increases in their period fertility rates (Goldstein, Sobotka, and Jasilioniene 2009). In Greece, for example, an increase in the total fertility rate (TFR) that began at the turn of the century came to a halt in 2009 when the Greek economy started to crumble. From 2010 to 2011, Greece saw a decline in total fertility from 1.5 to 1.4. A similar reversal in positive fertility trends occurred in Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Romania and Spain. Most remarkable were the developments in Latvia: When unemployment rates skyrocketed, fertility rates plummeted from 1.6 in 2008 to only 1.3 in 2011. Meanwhile, the neighboring country of Lithuania, where unemployment increased at a similar pace, did not experience any strong reaction in annual birth rates over the same period. In Portugal and Italy, which were also harshly affected by the recession, the TFR has also not yet reacted to the surge in unemployment thus far. The Nordic countries of Europe, which were only mildly affected by the recession, saw an unexpected but very uniform decline in total fertility in 2011 (see Figure A1 in appendix).This overview suggests that changes in fertility in response to the crisis have not been universal. It shows that fertility rates have declined in response to the crisis in several countries. In other countries, the economic crisis disrupted the positive fertility trend that began around the turn of the century. This positive trend has largely been attributed to a gradual end to fertility postponement, which had suppressed annual fertility rates (Goldstein, Sobotka, and Jasilioniene 2009). Researchers also noted that many European countries had implemented family-friendly policies prior to the onset of the crisis, which may have created an environment that is more conducive to fertility (Thevenon 2011; Fagnani 2012). Ideational changes, particularly a resurgence of more traditional family values among the recent cohorts, have also been cited as potential reasons for the reversal in fertility trends (Goldstein, Kreyenfeld, and Rosger 2012). …

Potential gains from more efficient spending on Texas highways

The Federal Highway Administration developed a state-level version of its Highway Economic Requirements System (HERS-ST) model to help states plan and manage their highway systems. Unlike frameworks that consider engineering sufficiency criteria only, the HERS-ST model also allows economic evaluation based on benefit-cost analysis. This study employs the model to address two questions about the level and allocation of investment spending on Texas highways: (1) Does the level of spending fall short of what is economically warranted and, if so, by how much? (2) Could a reallocation of spending between urban and rural areas, and among the highway functional classes produce substantial benefits? The results suggest that Texas is indeed under-investing in highway by a substantial amount. TxDOT expenditure on highway investments within the scope of HERS-ST averaged $2.7 billion per year during the 5 years starting FY 2000, and continuation of recent trends would bring the annual average for the 20 years starting in that year to about $3.4 billion. Relative to this 20 -year projected level of spending, our estimates from HERS-ST indicate that a near doubling would be economically warranted. The results also indicate that reallocation of investment spending, relative to the recent historical pattern, would produce substantial benefits. These gains are estimated at over $5.6 billion per year from reallocating funds from rural to urban areas, and over $1.0 billion per year from reallocating urban and rural funding among highway classes. The estimates are only broad indications, however, and numerous caveats apply.

Stability and Change on the American Religious Landscape: A Centrographic Analysis of Major U.S. Religious Groups

Religion is a major culture trait that is imprinted unevenly across the American religious landscape. Research utilizing church membership and adherent count data has described spatial patterns of group affiliation since the 1950s and identified distinct regional patterns that have remained fairly stable over time. The population of religious adherents is a subset of the general population. High levels of population mobility in recent decades, particularly Sunbelt and Latin American in-migration, suggest the potential for shifts in geographic patterns of religious adherents. This paper uses recently released data and centrographic methods to analyze patterns of stability and change for a set of major U.S. Christian groups for 1980–2000. Quantitative analyses of enumeration counts, weighted mean centers, and standard deviational ellipses reveal different patterns of change among groups. Relative levels of change vary depending on the use of raw or normalized measures. Catholics, Mormons, and Seventh-Day Adventists were among the most dynamic groups with Southern Baptists being the most stable. Continuation of recent trends can potentially impact established culture regions and issues of regional identity and perceptions.

Qing History: The State of the Field in 1983

Vol. 6, No. 2 Late Imperial ChinaDecember 1985 QING HISTORY: THE STATE OF THE FIELD IN 1983 Luo Ming $^ i$ and Li Hongbin |.^m Translator's Note: In deference to the scholar to whom this volume is dedicated, I wish to highlight two themes in this review of Qing studies in the People's Republic on which Joseph Fletcher's work has direct bearing . Imperial succession in the Manchu line has always excited strong debate among Chinese historians, and does so again among those reviewed here. In their biography of Abahai, Sun Wenliang and Li Zhiting reject the suggestion that he could have usurped power on Nurhaci 's death. In the many articles on Yongzheng, Xu Zengzhong pronounces him to be a usurper and Xue Ruilu offers evidence of his having murdered his brothers, whereas Yan Xueren argues that Yongzheng was Kangxi's chosen successor. Fletcher felt that the Chinese concern over usurpation by Manchu princes failed to recognize the difference between Manchu and Chinese traditions ofsuccession . The principle of Manchu succession, which Fletcher called bloody tanistry, required that brothers contest for supremacy to ensure that the strongest would become leader. The Manchu aristocracy recognized that, by fighting their way to rulership, Abahai and Yongzheng were demonstrating that they held the charisma or "luck" ofpower which gives to him who has it the right to rule. Fulin stays within blood lines, but it can pass laterally as well as from father to eldest son. In traditional Chinese statecraft, vertical succession between emperors transferred the mandate ofHeaven, whereas traditional Manchu statecraft trusted that fraternal conflict would produce a more vigorous ruler. The legitimacy of Chinese dominion over wide tracts ofInner Asia has been another large concern in Chinese historiography. Articles in this review picture that dominion as a progressive step along a developmental road: beneficial to national security, peace, and prosperity ; productive of improved relations among different nationalities; 67 68Luo Ming and Li Hongbin and essential for raising the cultural level of non-Han civilizations. Ma Ruheng asserts that the mid-seventeenth-century Zunghar leader Khotokhotsin was a loyal tributary vassal to the Qing state; Li Fengzhen links the Qing suppression of Lobdzan Dandzin in 1 723 to the development of productive forces in Tibet; Gu Xiaorong sees the installation of the Qing Imperial Resident in Lhasa in 1727 as helping to promote a common unity among different nationalities; and Zhang Yuxin argues that the Qing conquest ofXinjiang in the 1 750s accelerated socioeconomic development in that region. But adequate historical judgments on events in Inner Asia in the Qing cannot be made solely from the point of view of Han political, cultural, and economic systems, as Fletcher's work shows. Qing dominion was, after all, the product ofManchu rather than Han strategy and experience . To control the entire region was always an option in steppe society, which was constantly shifting between small, dispersed bands and despotic control under a single khan. The Qing succeeded through a unique combination of diplomacy and force that only the Manchus, with their knowledge of both steppe society and the bureaucratic state, could sustain. Identifying this outcome as either progressive or necessary threatens to submerge nomadic culture into Chinese history, even ifthat, ironically, is exactly what the Manchus succeeded in doing. 1983 was a productive year for historical research on the Qing in the period before the Opium War, a continuation of recent trends. Over ten specialized monographs and collections of primary sources were published , and some 160 essays concerning Qing history appeared in journals , essay collections, and other publications. Their range of issues and content is evidence that Qing historical research has broken free of the long-term stasis (of the Cultural Revolution period) and is maintaining steady improvement both in breadth and depth. The Sprouts of Capitalism The Question of the Sprouts of Capitalism in Agriculture in the MingQing Period ^ 3% tf *t *$ & 3* $ & * & % % UM by Li Wenzhi £ .$? $ê , Wei Jinyu 4i& and Jm8 Junjian ^i M, ?%_ (Beijing: Zhongguo Shehui Kexue Chubanshe) is one of Qing History: The State ofthe Field in 198369 the more systematic works in recent years on the question of the sprouts of capitalism in agriculture. The four essays in this book...

Labor Market Participation of Young Married Women: Causes and Effects

The increasing labor-force participation of married women cannot be adequately explained without taking into account the change in attitudes toward women working outside the home. Attitudes continue to be an important determinant of a woman's work status but are in turn influenced by her work status. Specifically, the findings are consistent with the interpretation that husbands' attitudes tend to become unfavorable toward women in the labor market when they become used to a wife who is a fulltime homemaker. Overall, the evidence points toward continuation of recent trends in female labor-force participation, unless there is prolonged severe unemployment.

New household projections for the united states

This paper reviews the methods used to prepare the new household projections for the United States that were recently issued by the Bureau of the Census and examines the effect on the resulting number of households of the assumptions made about future marriages and future proportions of household heads in the population.One population projection series was used, since all series are identical for the adult population. Marriage assumptions were generated by assuming various outcomes of the marriage squeeze (defined as the excess of females relative to the number of males in the main ages at marriage in the next few years). Assumptions about proportions of household heads were generated by assuming, in varying degrees, continuation of recent trends in these proportions.Projected changes in marriage and in the proportions of household heads in the population account for one-fourth to one-third of the projected increase in the number of households; the remaining increase is attributable to projected changes in the size and structure of the adult population. Varying the assumed proportions of household heads produces greater differences in the projected total number of households than does varying the marriage assumptions used here. Nevertheless, the various possible outcomes of the marriage squeeze, as represented by the assumptions used, produce significantly different projections of increases in the number of young husband-wife households.The most striking finding is that by 1985, proportions of household heads among the population not "married, spouse present" may well rise to such a level that over the long term, the smaller the number of persons who marry, the larger will be the number of households.