Contingent Claims Approach Research Articles

Measuring ESG risk premia with contingent claims

We propose a contingent claims approach for estimating ESG risk premia from market information and market participants' decisions. To this end, we infer the asset value dynamics via the structural model of Merton [1974, “On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates.” Journal of Finance 29: 449–470.] for a large panel of S&P 500 firms using an estimation algorithm that utilizes the information embedded in stock market prices, CDS spreads, and default probabilities. We find a statistically significant relationship between the ESG score and the volatility and drift terms of the asset value process, suggesting that ESG factors are structurally connected to the value of the firm. We establish a mapping between ESG scores and the cost of equity and debt as implied by firm's contingent claims, and derive estimates of the ESG risk premium across different ESG and leverage profiles. In addition, we break down the ESG risk premia by industry, and demonstrate how practitioners can adjust the weighed average cost of capital of ESG laggard firms for valuation and decision making purposes.

Quantifying the vulnerabilities of China’s corporate sector with contingent claims

This paper measures and analyzes the default risk and debt sustainability of China’s non-financial corporate sector both on an aggregate level and within a sector by employing the contingent claims approach (CCA). Our results suggest that the vulnerabilities of Chinese firms are heterogenous in terms of investment source, ownership group, corporate form, industry type, and geographic unit etc. First, foreign capital enterprises have a lower default risk than domestic capital enterprises. Within domestic capital enterprises, state-owned firms have the lowest default risk, whereas private and collective firms are most unsustainable despite that they have the highest returns on assets. Second, state-controlled firms, private stock limited firms, and Chinese foreign cooperative firms are least vulnerable in the state-owned corporate sub-sector, the private corporate sub-sector and the foreign corporate sub-sector, respectively. Third, all industries except the coal industry are sustainable by industry type. Fourth, the vulnerabilities of local state-owned sub-sectors are diverse across China’s administrative regions. Moreover, we provide robustness tests which support our findings. In Sum, our study shed key light on ensuring the soundness of China’s non-financial corporate sector and thereby maintaining the stability and sustainability of the Chinese economy.

Too-big-to-fail: The value of government guarantee

Following the 2008 financial crisis and the government bailout of troubled companies, Too-Big-to-Fail became a standard expression to name a free protection of Wall Street by tax-payers' money. What should have been the fair cost of this protection? We offer a novel approach to estimate the value of the implicit government guarantee by combining the contingent claim pricing with the likelihood of the government intervention. We find that the cost of this implicit protection can go beyond tens of billions of dollars with an average of about $13 million per company, per year, and it rises to about $24 million if the government is assumed to intervene with certainty. Moreover, we show that the spread of the funding costs of the large banks over the small banks is strongly inversely associated with the value of the implicit government guarantee, especially after the crisis. For the Chinese companies, we use the contingent claims approach to measure the government guarantee and find that the value of the guarantee for State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) is inversely related to their bond yield spreads.

Mapping of sovereign risks in small island economies: An application of contingent claim approach to fiji

While a decline in the market value of sovereign assets (below a benchmark level of liabilities) can trigger sovereign distress/default risk, volatility in sovereign assets can increase the risk pr...

Contingent Claim Approach for Pricing of Sovereign Sukuk for R&D Financing in Indonesia

ABSTRACTThis paper proposes a model for financing research and development activities with a focus on the pricing of sukuk as the source of financing. Pricing scenarios are conducted using the real options approach consisting of continuity, abandonment, and substitution scenarios. The results establish possible future values of products depending on the risk value obtained by converting the project’s technology readiness level as well as the scenario chosen. The results show consistency with the risk-return tradeoff, and the complete continuity scenario provides the closest results to the yields of existing project-based sukuk.

Optimal risk-taking in corporate defined benefit plans under risk-shifting

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to theoretically examine the risk-taking decision of corporate defined benefits (DB) plans. The equity holders’ investment problem that is represented by the position of a vulnerable option is solved.Design/methodology/approachThe simple traditional contingent claim approach is applied, which considers only the distributions of corporate cash flow, without the model expansions, such as market imperfections, needed to explain the firms’ behavior for DB plans in previous studies.FindingsThe authors find that the optimal solution to the equity holders’ DB investment problem is not an extreme corner solution such as 100 percent investment in equity funds as in the literature. Rather, the solution lies in the middle range, as is commonly observed in real-world economies.Originality/valueThe major value of this study is that it develops a clear mechanism for obtaining an internal solution for the equity holders’ DB investment problem and it provides the understanding that the base for corporate investment behavior for DB plans should incorporate the fact that in some cases the optimal solution is in the middle range. Therefore, the corporate risk-taking behavior of DB plans is harder to identify than the results of the empirical literature have predicted.

The Liability Regime of Insurance Pools and Its Impact on Pricing

This work formally derives fairly priced premiums for the policyholder of an insurance pool and the risk-adequate equity contributions of the pool insurers’ equity holders in a contingent claims approach. The approach distinguishes between two liability regimes: joint liability and several liability. These regimes regulate the pool’s indemnification when one or more of the pool insurers cannot meet their full obligations because of insolvency. Joint liability is deduced to be the preferable regime for the policyholder in cost-savings terms if corporate income taxation is introduced as a market friction. This regime advantage vanishes if the pool insurers’ asset correlation is substantial or if their risk sharing becomes unbalanced. Additionally, we address risk-shifting problems and their regime-dependent effects on both stakeholder groups.

A contingent claims approach to the determinants of the stock-bond return relationship

A contingent claims approach to the determinants of the stock-bond return relationship

A contingent claims approach to the determinants of the stock-bond return relationship

This paper decomposes the two effects on a firm's stock and bond returns - the effect of firm's future cash flow and the effect of business risk to study the relationship between the returns of stocks and bonds issued by the same firm. Based on the contingent claims option pricing theory, we employ the firm-level data and an event study methodology, and generate hypotheses regarding the stock-bond return relationship. We show that, by controlling for firm's leverage and firm's future cash flow has a simultaneous positive effect on the firm's stock and bond returns, whereas firm's business risk has a decoupling effect on stock and bond returns. In addition, we provide evidence for the 'flight to quality' hypothesis at a firm-specific level. Our findings complement the literature of stock and bond correlation within a theoretical framework.

NUMERICAL PRICING OF CoCo BONDS WITH PARISIAN TRIGGER FEATURE USING THE FORTET METHOD

Unlike conventional convertible bonds, contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds are converted into equity shares of the issuing bank subject to certain trigger mechanisms (accounting and/or regulatory trigger) when the issuing bank is under financial nonviable state. We consider pricing of these CoCo bonds using the contingent claims approach, where the state variables are the stock price and Tier 1 capital ratio. We use the Parisian feature to model the regulatory trigger where equity conversion is triggered when the capital ratio stays under the nonviable state consecutively for a certain period of time. The accounting trigger is modeled using the one-touch barrier feature associated with the capital ratio. The Parisian trigger feature adds one extra path dependent state variable in the pricing model of a CoCo bond. We design effective numerical algorithms for pricing the CoCo bonds using the extended Fortet method that avoid adding one extra state variable for the Parisian feature of regulatory trigger. Pricing properties of the CoCo bonds under both regulatory trigger and accounting trigger are explored.

Regulatory policies on Gramm-Leach-Bliley consolidation of commercial banking, shadow banking, and life insurance

This paper takes a contingent claim approach to the market valuation of equity and default risk in a financial services holding company eligible to consolidate commercial banking, shadow banking and life insurance under the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA) of 1999. We find a case where the GLBA consolidation destroys value captured by scope disequities. Four main results are demonstrated. First, bank capital requirement enhances a likelihood of bankruptcy and destroys value for the consolidated bank. Second, an increase in the regulatory guaranteed interest rate of the life insurance policy increases the default risk and decreases value for the consolidated bank. Third, on the contrary, the regulatory participation rate enhances the survival probability and value for the consolidated bank. Finally, our findings sound a cautionary note to adoption of regulatory mechanisms that may discourage functional consolidation of the GLBA.

Politically connected lending, government capital injection, and bank performance

This paper takes a contingent claim approach to evaluate the equity and risk of a bank. The paper investigates how government capital injection affects the bank's lending and equity risk, and how these effects vary across remaining privately owned and becoming government-owned. In particular, we argue that the strength of government ownership is useful in disciplining management of preferential access to debt financing for politically connected borrowing firms. It is shown that government capital injection leads to superior performance and greater safety for the bank remaining privately owned. The advantage of large capital is likely to be more pronounced to equity return, but less to safety for the government-owned bank. Moreover, political connection reinforces the increased return performance and safety. Government capital injection as such makes the bank less prone to risk-taking, thereby affecting the stability of the banking system.

Evaluating the sovereign and household credit risk in Singapore: A contingent claims approach

This study evaluates the credit risk of the household and government (sovereign) sectors in Singapore using the contingent claims approach (CCA). The CCA model estimates the default probability of both sectors based on the market value of the assets and liabilities of the sectors. Compared to the traditional credit rating system, this model is able to provide numerical estimates of the exposures and default probabilities. We find that from the year 2000 to 2013, variations in the credit risk measures correspond to the economic growth of Singapore. In addition, we suggest that the main factor affecting the credit risks in the government and household sectors in Singapore is the volatility of the assets held by both sectors, given that the asset-to-distress barrier ratios are relatively stable over the past 14 years for both sectors.

Systemic risk measures

In this paper we present systemic risk measures based on contingent claims approach and banking sector multivariate density. We also apply network measures to analyze bank common risk exposure. The proposed measures aim to capture credit risk stress and its potential to become systemic. These indicators capture not only individual bank vulnerability, but also the stress dependency structure between them. Furthermore, these measures can be quite useful for identifying systemically important banks. The empirical results show that these indicators capture with considerable fidelity the moments of increasing systemic risk in the Brazilian banking sector in recent years.

Numerical Pricing of Coco Bonds with Parisian Trigger Feature Using the Fortet Method

Unlike conventional convertible bonds, contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds are converted into equity shares of the issuing bank subject to certain trigger mechanisms (accounting and/or regulatory trigger) when the issuing bank is under financial non-viable state. We consider pricing of these CoCos using the contingent claims approach, where the state variables are the stock price and Tier 1 capital ratio. We use the Parisian feature to model the regulatory trigger where equity conversion is triggered when the capital ratio stays under the non-viable state cumulatively for a certain period of time. The accounting trigger is modeled using the one-touch barrier feature associated with the capital ratio. The Parisian trigger feature adds one extra path dependent state variable in the pricing model of a CoCo bond. We design effective numerical algorithms for pricing the Coco bonds using the extended Fortet method that avoid the issuance of adding one state variable for the Parisian feature of regulatory trigger. Pricing properties of the CoCo bonds under both regulatory trigger and accounting trigger are explored.

A Risk-Neutral Approach for the Evaluation of Commercial Loans

This paper describes a new methodology that allows the Banks to evaluate the loans using a risk neutral approach. More in detail it illustrates the methodological framework behind the definition of the risk neutral default probabilities used to estimate the loans credit spreads. These risk neutral probabilities are calculated using a contingent-claims approach conceptually similar to the Black-Scholes and Merton framework for modelling corporate liabilities. The proposed risk neutral approach is suitable at producing estimates, in a fair value computation context, that are as close as possible to the exit price as mandated by IFRS 13 with a lower dependency on internal parameters. It is compatible with the income approach, usually adopted for the loans evaluation, and is coherent with the discounted cashflows methodologies used for the pricing of securities subject to default risk. Under this approach, the cashflows riskiness is kept into account applying weights to the discount factors so as to consider a credit and time value in the spread calculation.

Quantitative Models for Financial Markets

The study analyses quantitative models for financial markets by starting from geometric Brown process and Wiener process by analyzing Ito’s lemma and first passage model. Furthermore, it is analyzed the prices of the options, Vanilla & Exotic, by using the expected value and numerical model. From contingent claim approach ALM strategies are also analyzed so to get the effective duration measure of liabilities. Furthermore, the study analyses interest rate models by showing that the yield curve is given by the average of the expected short rates & variation of GDP with the liquidity risk, but in the case we have crisis it is possible to have risk premium as well, the study is based on simulated modelisation by using the drift condition in combination with the inflation models as expectation of the markets. Moreover, the CIR process is considered as well by getting with modification of the diffusion process the same result of the simulated modelisation but we have to consider that the CIR process is considered in the simulated environment as well. The credit risk model is considered as well in intensity model & structural model by getting the liquidity and risk premium and the PD probability from the Rating Matrix as well by using the diagonal. Furthermore, the systemic risk is considered as well by using a deco relation concept. Moreover, along the equilibrium condition between financial markets is achieved the equity pricing with implications for the portfolio construction in simulated environment. Finally, the VaR model is presented in combination with a percentile approach by using a simulated approach consistent with back test as well in the case we consider the percentile of the simulated distribution.

A Contingent Claim Approach to Bank Valuation

In this paper, the model formulated incorporated stochastic variables such as bank loans and deposits as well as some deterministic variables: cash available, depreciation, capital expenditure, tax and costs, comprising variable costs and fixed costs. This paper assumes that the dynamics of bank loans and deposits at time t follow a geometric Brownian motion, therefore, it satisfies certain stochastic differential equations (SDEs) formulated on some probability space. On the other hand, the growth rate μL(t) in loan at time t, growth rate μD(t) in deposit at time t, and the variable cost η(t) at time t are assumed to be driven by mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. The SDEs of the dynamics of bank loans, growth rate in loans, bank deposits, growth rate in deposits and variable cost arising from the model were solved by means of the ItO Lemma. Discrete time approximations of the exact solutions of the SDEs were derived and used in a Monte Carlos simulation software.

Are hazard models superior to traditional bankruptcy prediction approaches? A comprehensive test

In recent years hazard models, using both market and accounting information, have become state of the art in predicting firm bankruptcies. However, a comprehensive test comparing their performance against the traditional accounting-based approach or the contingent claims approach is missing in the literature. Using a complete database of UK Main listed firms between 1979 and 2009, our Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis shows that the hazard models are superior to the alternatives. Further, our information content tests demonstrate that the hazard models subsume all bankruptcy related information in the Taffler (1983)z-score model as well as in Bharath and Shumway (2008) contingent claims-based model. Finally, using a mixed regime competitive loan market with different costs of misclassification, the economic benefit of using the Shumway (2001) hazard model is clear, particularly when the performance is judged with return on risk weighted assets computed under Basel III.

Analyses of retirement benefits with options

This study applies the contingent claim approach to evaluate retirement benefits with the options of choosing the maximum defined benefit and defined contribution pension plans. A least-squares Monte Carlo simulation values complex retirement benefits that feature the properties of multiple variables, early exercise, stochastic interest rates, and several embedded options. Furthermore, this study examines the impacts of different forms of early decrements of the value of retirement benefits with options.