Risk Of Contagion Research Articles

What Has the Pandemic Taught Us About Caregiving? Mental Health in Family Caregivers of People with Dementia One Year After the Lock-Down Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Caregiving for a person with dementia is considered a situation of chronic stress, with consequences on caregivers' physical and psychological health. The usual challenges of dementia care were intensified during the pandemic due to the risk of contagion, social isolation measures, and decrease in healthcare resources. The COVID-19 pandemic increased the stress both in the persons with dementia and their caregivers. This commentary reflects on the long-term effects of the pandemic on caregivers' mental health, focusing on the study by Olavarría and colleagues and drawing future research lines for culturally diverse family caregivers.

Risk amplification effect of multilayer financial networks: Feedback mechanism or cyclic structure?

This paper analyzes the amplification characteristics of risk propagation in multi-layer financial networks from the perspective of network topologies. The research finds that, even without feedback pathways, cross-layer links alone can lead to more severe risk contagion than in single-layer networks. More importantly, with increasing connectivity, the formation of cyclic structures in multi-layer networks will significantly exacerbate the systemic risk.

Does Geopolitical Risk Matter for Cross‐Industry Risk Contagion: The Roles of Real Linkage and Information Channels*

AbstractUsing data from 34 Chinese industries from January 2007 to February 2024, we examine risk spillover in the economic system and the channels through which geopolitical risk (GPR) influences contagion effects. Risk spillover measurements are calculated for both the short and long term by combining variational mode decomposition with the variance decomposition of vector autoregression. Our findings provide evidence of significant and time‐varying spillovers among industries over time. The results on densities and assortativity coefficients indicate the presence of structural changes in the risk network during geopolitical crises. Furthermore, we find that the real linkage (input–output nexus) is an important determinant of long‐term spillovers during periods of high GPR, and the information channel (market sentiment) is associated with risk contagion caused by GPR in both the short and long term. Overall, this paper offers valuable insights to prevent and mitigate the negative consequences triggered by geopolitical events on the stability of the economic system.

Tail risk network of Chinese green-related stocks market

This paper explores the tail risk network in the Chinese green-related stock market, by estimating the Copula-MIDAS-LASSO model. The model integrates characteristic factors and improves the model’s ability to capture the tail risk spillover. Additionally, we utilize the MTS network and the threshold network to picture the network in the market. The findings reveal that securities consistently hold central positions in the risk contagion network, with GFS, CUB, and PAI being three key sources of risk contagion. Finally, the subsample analysis demonstrates that the green finance policy and financial crises contribute to increased risk dependence within the market.

Change in the Distribution Pattern of Dirofilaria immitis in Gran Canaria (Hyperendemic Island) between 1994 and 2020.

Dirofilariosis is a zoonotic disease that mainly affects dogs and cats, with a high risk to public health. The island of Gran Canaria (Spain) has been shown to be a hyperendemic area of infection and, therefore, a model for studying the evolution of the disease. The objective of this study was to track the prevalence and distribution of heartworm in dogs, cats, and residents of Gran Canaria from 1994 to 2020, using published and unpublished data. Blood samples from 5841 dogs, 1203 cats, and 1604 humans were collected in the years analyzed, considering geographical and isoclimatic factors. In 1994, a prevalence of Dirofilaria immitis of 67.02% in dogs was reported, while in 2020 it was 15.81%. In cats, the seroprevalence in 2010 was 33.03%, compared to 17.20% in 2020. The incidence of D. immitis in humans in 2008 was 18.66%, while in 2020 it was 8.27%. For all study groups, temperate cold zone (TC) and temperate mild zone (TM) climates had the highest prevalence. Throughout these 20 years, the prevalence of heartworm disease has decreased. Despite this, it continues to be a hyperendemic island. This study highlights the importance of using the "One Health" perspective and the risks of contagion of the disease.

Extreme weather, policy uncertainty, and risk spillovers between energy, financial, and carbon markets

Extreme weather, as well as policy uncertainties associated with climate change, have fueled global energy market turbulence and cross-market risk contagion, which have had serious effects on the economy. Using time-frequency network analysis based on quantile vector autoregression (QVAR), this study reveals the risk spillovers between China's energy, financial, and carbon markets in different time and frequency domains. The effects of extreme weather and policy uncertainty on market risk spillovers are also examined. The results show that: (1) Risk spillovers vary significantly in different time and frequency domains, and extreme risks tend to occur in the tails of the shock distribution, and market risk spillovers occur mainly in the long term; (2) Extreme weather and policy uncertainty significantly affect energy, financial, and carbon markets, altering their net spillover levels. Among which the coal market is the most volatile and highly sensitive to changes in external conditions; (3) Risk spillovers exhibit distinct time-varying characteristics, with extreme weather, climate policy uncertainty, and trade policy uncertainty exacerbating market risk spillovers. These findings could serve as a reference for monitoring market risk spillovers, facilitating energy transition, and achieving dual‑carbon targets.

On joint marginal expected shortfall and associated contribution risk measures

Systemic risk is the risk that a company- or industry-level risk could trigger a huge collapse of another or even the whole institution. Various systemic risk measures have been proposed in the literature to quantify the domino and (relative) spillover effects induced by systemic risks such as the well-known CoVaR, CoES, MES and CoD risk measures, and associated contribution measures. This paper proposes another new type of systemic risk measure, called the joint marginal expected shortfall (JMES), to measure whether the MES of one entity's risk-taking adds to another one or the overall risk conditioned on the event that the entity is already in some specified distress level. We further introduce two useful systemic risk contribution measures based on the difference function or relative ratio function of the JMES and the conventional ES, respectively. Some basic properties of these proposed measures are studied such as monotonicity, comonotonic additivity, non-identifiability and non-elicitability. For both risk measures and two different vectors of bivariate risks, we establish sufficient conditions imposed on copula structure, stress levels, and stochastic orders to compare these new measures. We further provide some numerical examples to illustrate our main findings. A real application in analyzing the risk contagion among several stock market indices is implemented to show the performances of our proposed measures compared with other commonly used measures including CoVaR, CoES, MES, and their associated contribution measures.

Time Perspective and Motivation to Protective behaviours against Covid-19 in Italian young people

Health Psychology highlights the complexity of factors that influences the individual decision to adopt one, or more, protective behaviours for avoiding diseases and adverse health outcomes. One of the most relevant theory is the Protection Motivation Theory (Rogers, 1975), which has been adopted for identifying the psychological factors involved in many protection behaviours. Another relevant construct for healthy behaviours is represented by the Time Perspective (Zimbardo & Boyd, 1999). This study analysed the relationships between the Protection Motivation Theory applied on Covid-19 and Time Perspective in Italian young people.A group of 130 young people (m. age 26.4; 40 males and 90 females) participated in the study, filling in the Swedish Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory and the Motivation to Protect against Covid-19 Questionnaire. Three single items furthermore explored the prevailingly sources of information for Covid-19 (social media such as Facebook; traditional media such as TV; specialistic magazines such as Le Scienze) used and a single item tested the level of mistrust in Political Institutions and mass-media and its association with protection motivation, beliefs and perceived vulnerability to Covid-19.Perceived vulnerability to Covid-19 and use of protections and perceived efficacy of protections, show positive correlations with Future Positive; beliefs on Covid-19 vaccine resulted as negatively correlated with Present Fatalistic; a positive correlation between mistrust in political institutions and Present Fatalistic has been found. Social media (such as Facebook, Instagram) and traditional mass media (such as TV) as preferred systems of information are both positively correlated with beliefs on Covid-19 vaccine, perceived vulnerability and use of protections, highlighting the role of new forms of circulation of information, but also the relevance of traditional ones for young people. Perceived vulnerability to Covid-19, perceived efficacy of protections give a positive contribution to the intention to get vaccinated; mistrust in political institutions and media on the contrary reduces the intention to take the vaccine.Results are discussed in relations to preventive interventions on the young population for the improvement of self-awareness of persistence of this virus and consequently the necessity of adopting self-protection, with special attention to vaccination. The relevance of time perspective dimensions for protection suggests to include it in the programs devoted to reduce the risk of contagion.

Extreme risk contagions among fossil energy companies in China: Insights from a multilayer dynamic network analysis

Since the severity and frequency of extreme events have seriously threatened the stability of fossil energy markets, this paper conducts multilayer dynamic network analysis to demonstrate the evolution of the entire market structure during extreme events. Based on the data of 64 Chinese energy firms ranging from March 2018 to February 2023, this paper examines the sectoral discrepancies, and identifies systemically important companies during different crises. The results indicate that the risk transmission mechanisms among fossil energy markets are different induced by the two crises, namely the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Specifically, the COVID-19 has rendered greater influence on the oil and gas industry, while the Russia–Ukraine conflict has brought instability to the coal industry. Additionally, the heterogeneous effects of these events on individual energy firms are identified, and the results suggest that both small and large firms have played prominent roles in risk transmission.

Macro topology structure and evolution of Chinese Public Funds’ Co-holding Network

The behavior of institutional investors such as public offering funds and investor networks play an important role in information transmission and risk contagion in the capital market. Less attention has been paid to the macro topological structure characteristics and the fund group behavior of the co-holding network indirectly formed by the common holding among funds. Based on the complex network analysis method, this paper firstly uses three methods to define the co-holding behavior of funds and construct the co-holding networks between large funds and small funds and between large funds, and then conducts a comparative study on the Macro topology structure and evolution characteristics of the Chinese Public Funds’ Co-holding network. The results show that: (1) Although the three networks are large sparse networks, the co-holding behavior among funds still widely exists; (2) Both networks have the characteristics of small-world and scale-free, but there are significant differences in the degree of specificity; (3)There are significant differences in the evolution of “small-world and scale-free” between the three networks; (4) When the large funds and small funds are considered comprehensively, the “small world” and “scale-free” of the fund co-holding network and the stock market show a relationship of mutual influence and mutual restriction.This study provides a reference for understanding the influence of mutual shareholding among funds, and for regulators to manage stock market risk and institutional investor governance.

Multilayer networks for measuring interconnectedness among global stock markets through the lens of trading volume-price relationship

Using daily data spanning from 5 January 2004 to 22 November 2022, we quantify the spillover effects between 42 global stock markets. Specifically, combining causal structure learning and Elastic-Net-VAR methods, we innovatively construct multilayer causal networks based on volume-price relationship. Then, we analyze the network characteristics of multilayer spillover networks from system and market levels. Our findings indicate that there is heterogeneity in risk spillovers of price and volume networks, highlighting how trading volume spillover network play an important role in the risk contagion. Furthermore, multilayer interconnected networks confirm the risk spillovers between volume and price, and it exhibits significant differences compared to single-layer network. In addition, at system-level, each network layer shows unique network structures and dynamic evolution characteristics. At market-level, global stock markets play different roles in emitting or receiving shocks through various transmission channels. Our study emphasizes the importance of intra- and inter-layer risk propagation in multilayer networks based on volume and price, and has significant implications for developing investment strategies and global portfolio risk management.

Interconnections and contagion among cryptocurrencies, DeFi, NFT and traditional financial assets: Some new evidence from tail risk driven network

For digital assets (cryptocurrencies, DeFi tokens and NFTs) and traditional financial assets such as stock indices and commodities, this paper established a dynamic downside risk network to explore the network aggregating structure, important nodes and the tail risk spillover between asset groups. This study reveals that there exist tail risk spillover between digital financial assets and traditional financial assets, where the risk spillover between the digital assets and the commodities is bidirectional and the risk spillovers from the stocks to the digital assets as well as the commodities to stocks are unidirectional. For important assets, the NFT Decentraland and Brazil’s BVSP stock index play central roles in the network, while the FTSE stock index and gold exhibit strong hedging potential against global downside risk spillovers. Furthermore, we consider the impact of uncertainty in US economic policy and US stock volatility on tail risk contagion, which is the network aggregation level. Regarded as exogenous shocks, the US stock circuit breaker in March 2020 and the US Federal Reserve rate rising in March 2022 were found to significantly increase the tail risk contagion, especially the risk spillover from the stocks market to the digital financial market. Moreover, by using the TVP-SV-VAR model, we find that increases in the US EPU index and the US VIX index can both exacerbate the tail-risk contagion between digital and traditional financial assets. This expands the influencing factors of risk contagion between financial assets. The empirical findings carry important implications not only for portfolio managers and investors in portfolio allocation and investment strategies between digital and traditional financial assets, but also for government regulators in risk management and economic policy formulation.

Dynamic impact of the US yield curve on green bonds: Navigating through recent crises

We examine the effect of the US yield curve on the global green bond markets at the forefront of the climate change fight. For this purpose, we compute three components (level, slope, and curvature) of the US yield curve based on daily data of the treasury yields with several maturities from January 2009 to June 2022 and employ country-level S&P green bond indices. Our dynamic network analysis shows that the level component of the yield curve is more influential in transmitting return and volatility shocks to green bonds, while curvature is primarily absorptive. The European, the US, and Hong Kong green bonds are the leading players in shock propagation. Both return- and volatility spillovers are time-varying and remain high during periods of systemically important events, especially COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war, supporting the Global Financial Cycle Hypothesis. The war also changes the net behaviors (transmitter versus receiver) of the components and the indices. Investors and issuers of green bonds are advised to keenly observe the shape of the US yield curve and systemic events for better decision-making regarding investment horizons and contagion risk management.

Viral Transmission in Pedestrian Crowds: Coupling an Open-source Code Assessing the Risks of Airborne Contagion with Diverse Pedestrian Dynamics Models

Viral Transmission in Pedestrian Crowds: Coupling an Open-source Code Assessing the Risks of Airborne Contagion with Diverse Pedestrian Dynamics Models

Measurement and Control of Risk Contagion in Portfolio Optimization Processes

Measurement and Control of Risk Contagion in Portfolio Optimization Processes

Development of green infrastructure during the COVID-19 pandemic using spatial analysis methods

In Latin America, there is a lack of green infrastructure (GI) to enhance urban resilience and reduce the contagion levels, particularly in times of pandemic. Therefore, a simplified method is needed to define GI in critical public health risk scenarios, especially when access to geospatial information is limited. The objective of this study is to propose a simplified method called GreenNet-Covid19 in Peru during critical public health scenarios using spatial analysis methods to define the global GI index (GGII) and select the potential integration areas for GI (PIAGI). This method is based on the approach proposed by Aguileraet al. (2018), which utilized spatial analysis in Metropolitan Arequipa and its surroundings during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, in addition to the four dimensions proposed Aguilera et al. (2018), a fifth dimension called ‘risk due to COVID-19’ was introduced, allowing to obtain the GGII and define the PIAGI. The GGII showed high ecological and biodiversity potentials at the vegetation cover level. However, the loss of GGII connectivity in urban areas posed a threat to the intricate connectivity of the highlands, thus increasing the risk of COVID-19 spread. Meanwhile, the PIAGI exhibited relatively low values compared with those of the GGII. Yet, the loss of PIAGI connectivity in urban areas strengthened the factors contributing to COVID-19 propagation. The intersection between the COVID-19 and PIAGI risk layers at the ‘very high,’ ‘high,’ and ‘medium’ levels demonstrated a high capability for reducing the contagion risk in future pandemics. The introduction and implementation of this method in territorial planning is facilitated by its applicability to any Latin American territory.

Suicide contagion and psychosocial risks among Nepali youth through a near-hanging case study.

The phenomenon of suicide contagion: some individuals, especially vulnerable young people, exhibit increased susceptibility to suicidal ideation when exposed to the suicide of other people. Significant research suggests that exposure to media portrayals, suicide groups and peer suicides may lead to suicide contagion. Prevalent psychosocial and cultural factors in Nepal such as interpersonal conflict, domestic violence, gender inequity and social exclusion probably contribute to suicidal behaviour. This case study investigates a high school student in a rural mountainous community in Nepal, who attempted suicide by hanging following his girlfriend's suicide, and demonstrates how peer suicide exposure prompts imitative behaviour in a vulnerable young person and confirms suicide grief as an underrepresented risk factor. Prompt, supportive interventions for high-risk grievers and societal prevention strategies tailored to adolescents are essential to curb imitative deaths.

Riding Against the Speckled Monster: Smallpox in the Thought and Ministry of John Wesley

ABSTRACT The journals of John Wesley reveal encounters with smallpox during his ministry. While the disease claimed the lives of parishioners and posed a threat to preachers, Wesley’s concern for souls seemed to diminish the risk of contagion. While his medical reflections reveal genuine interest in the disease, theological essays attribute disease to the fall, while journals evidence a ministry undeterred by disease and death. Providence, prayer, pastoral responsibility, and medicine construct a theology that justified his continued ministry amid smallpox. With renewed interest about ministry during an epidemic, Wesley’s outlook on the intersection of disease and pastoral commitments is beneficial.

A New Tailored Approach to Calculate the Optimal Number of Outdoor Air Changes in School Building HVAC Systems in the Post-COVID-19 Era

Air conditioning systems can play a positive or negative role in the spread of COVID-19 infection. The importance of sufficient outdoor air changes in buildings was highlighted by the World Health Organization, therefore these should be guaranteed by mechanical ventilation systems or adequate air conditioning systems. The proposed case study concerns the optimal number of outdoor air changes to limit COVID-19 contagion for a school building in Central Italy. The Wells–Riley model is used to assess the risk of airborne infection, while energy consumption is calculated by a dynamic energy simulation software. The scope of the paper offers an innovative method to define the optimal ventilation strategy for the building’s HVAC system design to reduce the risk of infection with limited increases in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Results show that the desirable approach is the one in which the same low value of contagion risk is set in all rooms. This new approach results in significant energy savings, compared to the most common ones (setting the same high outdoor air rates for all rooms) to counteract the risk of infection. Finally, the zero-emission building target is verified by introducing a suitable photovoltaic system to offset pollutant emissions.

Stability and risk contagion in the global sovereign CDS market under Russia-Ukraine conflict

As a leading indicator of sovereign debt risk, the performance of the sovereign CDS market during the Russia-Ukraine conflict deserves attention. This paper calculates the marginal net spillover index, constructs the sovereign CDS network based on the index, identifies the important countries in the network, and analyzes the network stability considering the differences in the roles of the countries in the network. By further analyzing the daily sovereign CDS network before and after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we show the evolution pattern of the risk of the important countries in the network and the main risk contagion paths between countries. The paper shows that the Russia-Ukraine conflict significantly exacerbated the network’s overall risk level and instability. The major transmitters in the sovereign CDS network are characterized by the risk switch from receiving to transmitting, and the major receivers are characterized by the risk switch from latent to manifest. The risk contagion process is characterized by four stages: risk contagion to neighboring countries, risk exacerbation between Russia and Ukraine, further outward spillover, and weakening but persistent spillover. This study helps to provide a reference for investors to mitigate risk contagion in the sovereign CDS market.